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The 2014 MLB regular season has been over for two days, meaning that the Wild Card Round is set to kick off and usher in the postseason for the 10 teams that earned the right to play October baseball.

What about the other 20 clubs that didn’t make the playoffs?

Well, there are certainly plans in place to improve the rosters on each of them with the idea that 2015 will be a better season. Some have longer to-do lists than others, but they all have the same goal—win it all next year.

In that spirit, let’s take a look at the franchises that didn’t make the MLB playoffs, reviewing where they were and surmising what the offseason could hold.

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Not every team will have the luxury of signing superstars like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and Hanley Ramirez during the 2015 offseason, which is why it is worth looking at some under-the-radar options who will be on the market.

The good news is, these guys come for much cheaper than the top-notch talent and could still be productive next season if put in the right situation. Look for some smaller market clubs trying to contend to take some low-risk, high-reward chances on these players.

Here is a list of all the available 2015 free agents, courtesy of Spotrac.

Jed Lowrie

Jed Lowrie may end up staying put in Oakland thanks to the Athletics’ mid-season trade with the Chicago Cubs.

After all, that deal sent shortstop of the future Addison Russell to the North Side in exchange for some quality pitching. That means Oakland could very well end up keeping Lowrie around for another couple of years as it tries to climb the American League mountaintop.

That may seem like Lowrie has more of the leverage, but there has been a dip in his production this year. In fact, he is only hitting .245 with six home runs, 46 RBI and an OPS of .670 compared to his 2013 numbers of 15 home runs, 75 RBI, a .790 OPS and a .290 batting average.

He’s not a gold glover at shortstop, but he is certainly solid defensively. He only has 13 errors this season and was actually fourth in the National League in range factor per game for shortstops in 2012. He covers ground and catches the ball when he gets to it.

Don’t read too much in Lowrie’s disappointing numbers because they are largely a factor of an abysmal two-month stretch in May and June. 

Lowrie proved last year that he is a solid option with the bat and still theoretically has a couple years of production left in the tank (he will be 30 on opening day). Look for someone (likely the Athletics) to grab him for relatively cheap after a down year.

Michael Cuddyer

Michael Cuddyer has spent his entire career playing for the Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies. If he played in a bigger market, he would not be such an under-the-radar player because his numbers are impressive.

Cuddyer was the 2013 National League batting champ and has mashed the ball in limited action this year. He sports a .335 batting average, 10 home runs, 31 RBI and a .969 OPS in 48 games, which is a solid follow-up effort to such an impressive 2013. 

He proved just how effective he can be at the plate recently, as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out:

There are a few concerns that will likely drive his market price down in the offseason. For one, he will be 36 years old on Opening Day and has missed considerable time with injuries. It is just difficult to see Cuddyer playing every day in 2015, which means a contender can pick him up to bolster its depth. 

Cuddyer has to be considered one of the more intriguing players on the entire market this offseason.

Kendrys Morales

Kendrys Morales is the perfect example of a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for teams looking to improve in free agency.

He was an absolute superstar in 2009 with a .306 average, 34 home runs, 108 RBI and a .924 OPS. Morales also hit 45 combined home runs in 2012 and 2013.

However, he has struggled mightily thus far in 2014 for the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners with a .218 average, seven home runs and 41 RBI. Perhaps he shouldn’t have rejected Seattle’s qualifying offer this past offseason that would have rewarded him with $14.1 million this year.

For what it’s worth, Morales seems to want to stay in Seattle in comments made to Bob Dutton of The New Tribune:

If it got to the point where we could work something out before I got to free agency. I’d have interest in staying. I’m comfortable with the players. I’m comfortable with the direction of the team.

Yes, I’d love to stay here. 

The Mariners may just get a past star on the cheap this offseason. If Morales could tap into that prior production, it would be a major steal.

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Before we know it, MLB free agency will be upon us. In fact, the rumors and speculation have been in full swing for some time.

What about the latest news, though?

What has been said in the past week regarding some of the bigger names set to cash in on large paydays or switch teams?

To be clear, we will not be covering all of the top targets set to hit free agency, nor will the main speculation come from ideas posited earlier in the season. Older rumors and speculation may be used as supporting information but will not be central to the premise.

The names presented here have all been discussed since last Friday by prominent writers from around the country. That way we can keep the conversation driven by credibility. 

Here are some updates on the latest MLB free-agency rumors and speculation.

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Though the 2014-15 international signing period officially began only last Wednesday, a majority of the top prospects in this year’s class have already signed or agreed to sign with a major league club.

While most teams played by the rules and stayed within their allotted bonus pools, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox opted to ignore spending limitations (at the cost of a future penalty) in order to sign many of the top-ranked prospects in this year’s class. 

Based on the quality of players they’ve signed thus far, it’s hard to criticize either team for having the means to exploit a loophole in the current collective bargaining agreement. At the same time, there also were plenty of teams that landed promising young players without exceeding their bonus pools.

Yet, while the Yankees and Red Sox have both enjoyed a rewarding start to the current international signing period, there are several teams that, for one reason or another, have made lackluster signings, while others that have been kept off the board entirely.

With that in mind, it simply isn’t fair to declare teams as either “winners” or “losers” less than one week into the signing period; remember, we’re talking about 15- and 16-year-old kids who have minimal experience and will need numerous seasons to develop in the minor leagues, if they’re even so lucky to reach a stateside level. However, that doesn’t mean teams’ international strategies aren’t worth analyzing.

Here are the early “winners” and “losers” of the 2014-15 international signing period, with an emphasis on clubs that have fared well over the last week.

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Late last week we learned through a report by Ben Badler of Baseball America (h/t MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams) that another high-profile Cuban hitter, outfielder Yasmani Tomas, had defected in order to pursue a career in Major League Baseball.

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com noted that the 23-year-old currently is in the Dominican Republic, and Adams points out he “needs to establish residence in a foreign country and then be cleared by both Major League Baseball and the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control” before he can sign.

With that in place, Tomas will be free to sign with an interested team for any amount, as his age and experience—he played in parts of five seasons for the Industriales in Cuba’s Serie Nacional—”make him exempt from MLB’s international spending limitations.”

There isn’t a definite timetable for the aforementioned process, as Adams notes, and Tomas may not end up signing with a team until late 2014 or even 2015.

However, once he’s been cleared to sign, expect a bidding war to take place between numerous teams.

Here’s what you need to know about Tomas in advance of his potential stateside career.

Background

Tomas debuted as an 18-year-old in Cuba’s Serie Nacional during the 2008-09 season, and, for the most part, the teenager held his own with a .297/.350/.385 batting line and five extra-base hits in 91 at-bats. He appeared in 35 games for the Industriales, seeing time at both corner outfielder positions as well as first and third base.

Tomas appeared in only 24 games the following year and batted just .185/.179/.370 in 27 at-bats, and didn’t receive any playing time—for reasons unknown—for the Industriales during the 2010-11 season.

However, Tomas would emerge as one of Cuba’s more prolific hitters the following season, as the 21-year-old batted .298/.340/.581 with 20 home runs, 15 doubles, 50 RBI and a 57-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 272 at-bats (83 games).

Tomas added to his resume the following year with another strong offensive season, as he batted .289/.364/.538 with 15 homers, 18 doubles, 60 RBI and a 52-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 277 at-bats. He also drew 10 intentional walks while appearing in over 80 games (81, to be exact) for the second consecutive season.

It also marked the first time in Tomas’ Serie Nacional career that he played center field almost exclusively.

In his final year (2013-14) with the Industriales, Tomas’s playing time and production both were limited due to a wrist injury suffered during the season. However, the 23-year-old still managed to turn in a solid offensive campaign, batting .291/.348/.452 with 23 extra-base hits (six home runs) and 35 RBI in 230 at-bats.

Tomas also opened eyes during the 2013 World Baseball Classic while serving as one of the younger players on the Cuban national team, as he was 6-for-16 (.412) with two home runs, one double, one walk and four strikeouts in the tournament.

Scouting Report

The first thing you’ll hear about Tomas is that he possesses enormous raw power—legitimate 70-grade thump according to Badler:

A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required) praised Tomas’ swing mechanics and approach, stating that he’s “very short to the ball – maybe even more so than [Jose] Abreu – with good hip rotation and a quiet approach.”

Scouting Baseball’s Kiley McDaniel (subscription required) also noted Tomas’s sound right-handed swing when commenting on his power:

Tomas’ power is mostly to his pull side and he’ll swing out of his shoes at times, showing some attributes of a 4A slugger. That said, Tomas has a cleaner, quieter swing with more power than those types of hitters, though his bat speed is average at best.

Even though Tomas saw time in center field during his tenure with the Industriales, few believe that he’ll able to handle the position in the major leagues, with the consensus being he’s better suited for a career in right or left field.

According to Law:

Tomas is a stout center fielder who’ll have to move to a corner outfield spot, as he’s a below-average runner with a stiff body who could probably stand to shed some weight before he signs. (Baseball-Reference lists him at 6 feet 1 and 229 pounds, but he looked much heavier than that last summer.)

McDaniel echoed Law’s belief in Tomas as a corner outfielder:

His frame is a little thick and while he plays some center field for Cuba, he’s a corner outfield fit in the big leagues. His arm strength varies game-to-game but scouts have seen a 55 enough to think he’s got a chance to play a solid right field.

Overall, Law contends that a reasonable projection for Tomas would be an “average to slightly above-average regular in left field, with 25 to 30 homers, a low OBP and below-average defense.”

McDaniel also is skeptical of Tomas’ hit tool and wonders whether or not it will affect his power frequency in the major leagues, writing: “Scouts think that inclination and bat speed will lead to a 45 or 50 bat (.250-.260 average, .320-.330 on-base) and the question is if that will be enough to get his 25 homer power in games, or he ends up being a platoon bat.”

Comparing Tomas to Other Cuban Stars

Since Tomas basically played in three full seasons (his age-21 to age-23 seasons) before defecting, I thought it would be interesting to look at how some of the other recent Cuban signees, specifically Jose Abreu and Yoenis Cespedes—Yasiel Puig signed with the Dodgers as a 21-year-old—fared at the same age:

The above statistics support the previous scouting assessments that Tomas is not the same type of all-around, dynamic hitter that both Abreu and Cespedes were at the same age.

However, the fact that Tomas’ numbers in Cuba weren’t as impressive as Abreu, Cespedes or Puig’s doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t receive a big payday once eligible to sign. According to Law, “Tomas might get paid like Jose Abreu or Yasiel Puig, but he’s not in their class as a prospect, and if paid similarly, he would be benefiting from how successful Abreu and Puig have been.”

McDaniel also believes that Tomas’ potential contract will have more to do with the market than his recent success in Serie Nacional:

I point all that out to say that Tomas’ raw talent or closest comparable won’t be the most important factor to determining his payday; the amount of teams seriously bidding will. For all we know, Tomas is the last notable Cuban bat to hit the market for the next 5 years and for clubs that don’t want to overpay for a 30-year-old domestic free agent, this is their chance to make a splash that doesn’t also cost a high draft pick.

That said, the industry consensus is that Tomas won’t receive anywhere close to Abreu’s six-year, $68 million deal with the White Sox or Puig’s seven-year, $42 million contract with the Dodgers.

However, based on some of the other contracts handed out in recent years to Cespedes (four years, $36 million), Alex Guerrero (four years, $28 million) and Erisbel Arruebarruena (five years, $25 million), it’s seemingly a safe bet that the 23-year-old Tomas will receive a deal for anywhere from four to seven years that’s worth as much as $30 million to $35 million.

*All stats from Cuba’s Serie Nacional are courtesy of ESPN’s Cuban-Play.com unless otherwise noted.

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With less than two weeks until the 2014-15 international signing period is set to begin July 2 (J2), teams are currently doing everything in their power to reach an agreement with one (or in some cases many) of the top amateur prospects in this year’s class.

Last year, both the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers willingly exceeded their respective bonus pools in order to sign some of the best-available talent. This time around, the New York Yankees are preparing to take things to a new level.

Back in December, Kiley McDaniel of Scouting Baseball (subscription required) broke news of the Yankees’ plan to essentially ignore international spending restrictions and sign roughly six players for a total of $12 million. (For reference, they have an assigned bonus pool of $2.191 million.) His latest update on the Yankees’ strategy has them signing up to two additional players and spending nearly $15 million. Either way, the Bronx Bombers are preparing to turn the international spending system on its head on July 2—and they aren’t the only ones.

According to Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), both the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are expected to spend beyond their bonus pools this year and pay the maximum fine for doing so. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers also are believed to be willing to go beyond their allotted pool money in the 2014-15 signing period.

In terms of available talent, this year’s international class is loaded with potential high-ceiling hitters, many of whom project to play an up-the-middle position at the next level, as well as several notable arms.

Here is a look at the top 20 prospects, broken down by position, who are expected to sign with an MLB team beginning July 2, with updates on their potential suitors based on reports from other well-known industry experts.

*A majority of the links to articles by Ben Badler (Baseball America) and Kiley McDaniel (Scouting Baseball) will take you to paywall-protected content.

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Back in October 2012, teenage phenom Shohei Otani had the baseball world buzzing with excitement after he expressed a desire to sign with an MLB team out high school in Japan rather than begin his career in Nippon Professional Baseball.

But after being selected by the Nippon Ham Fighters with the No. 1 overall pick in that year’s NPB amateur draft, the highly touted right-hander ultimately decided to put his major league aspirations on hold, at least temporarily, and sign with the well-known NPB franchise.

However, Otani’s showing with the Fighters this season, highlighted by a recent stretch of flat-out dominant pitching performances—not to mention the overwhelming successes of countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka in Major League Baseball—now has the 19-year-old back at the forefront of all discussions regarding who will be the next elite Japanese pitcher to pursue a career in the States.

Background

After his outstanding career at Hanamaki Higashi High School and strong performance for Japan’s 18-and-under national team, Otani, a 6’4” right-hander, captured headlines worldwide with the announcement that he would bypass the NPB and pursue a career in MLB (via The Associated Press on ESPN.com). He then urged his potential NPB suitors not to draft him in the league’s annual amateur draft.

Unlike Darvish and Tanaka, who each had to go through NPB’s posting system before signing with an MLB club, Otani qualified as an international free agent after completing his final high school season. Therefore, it didn’t come as a surprise to learn that upward of eight teams, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers, expressed interest in signing the then-18-year-old pitcher (via the New York Daily News).

As previously mentioned, Nippon Ham did not adhere to Otani’s request and selected him with the first pick in the draft. Though he still could have stayed true to his claim by signing with an MLB team, the right-hander ultimately decided to sign with the Fighters for the equivalent of a $1.2 million bonus and receive the maximum rookie base salary of $150,000.

Aside from the lucrative and flattering bonus, Otani’s decision to remain in Japan presumably was at least in part influenced by a league rule that any player who signs an international contract without having played in the NPB would be banned from the circuit for three years. Plus, Nippon Ham offered Otani, who also starred as a slugging outfielder for his high school team, an opportunity to keep playing both ways as a member of its organization. For the sake of comparison, he surely would have been restricted to a career on the mound with a major league team and been forced to spend multiple seasons refining his craft in the minor leagues.

Otani actually saw more time in the outfield than on the mound in his first professional season in Japan’s NPB, but struggled to make an impact in either role.

At the plate, the left-handed hitter posted a disappointing batting line of .238/.284/.376 to go along with 15 doubles, three home runs and a 64-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 204 plate appearances (77 games). On the bump, Otani pitched to a 4.23 ERA with 33 walks (4.8 BB/9) and 46 strikeouts (6.7 K/9) in 61.2 innings (11 starts).

However, the 19-year-old’s current sophomore campaign has been an entirely different story.

Offensively, Otani has shown vast improvement despite playing in only 38 games as a hitter, as he currently owns a solid .271/.330/.438 batting line with eight doubles, two homers and a 22-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 106 plate appearances. 

Meanwhile, the right-hander has rapidly fulfilled his prophecy as one of Japan’s premier pitchers by posting a 6-1 record, 2.61 ERA and 76-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 69 innings (11 starts).

Otani has been especially dominant this month, which began with a jaw-dropping performance against Hiroshima Carp ace Kenta Maeda, who many believe will pursue an MLB career in 2015. Otani allowed one run over five innings and struck out 10 batters without issuing a walk. According to Ben Badler (the guru of all things international baseball) of Baseball America, the right-hander bumped 99 mph with his fastball in the outing.

Otani likely would have pitched well beyond the fifth inning—his pitch count sat at 71 heading into the sixth—had it not been for a sprained ankle suffered as he slid across home plate while scoring a run.

Thankfully, Otani’s injury proved to be minor and didn’t prevent him from making his next scheduled start against the Yomiuri Giants, when he once again lit up radar guns with a 99 mph heater (via Badler on Twitter).

The Scouting Report

Back in late 2012, when everyone was busy speculating about Otani’s potential jump from Japan to the major leagues, Patrick Newman of NPBTracker.com offered a detailed scouting report on the right-hander after taking in one of his high school starts:

I’ve only seen one Otani pitch one full game, his appearance in this spring’s Koshien Senbatsu tournament against fellow draft phenom Shintaro Fujinami. It was a frustrating game to watch, as the raw quality of Otani’s stuff was evident, but his command was non-existent. He featured a fastball ranging from about 145-152 km/h (90-95 mph), a slider around 132-136 km/h (82-84 mph) and curve around 125 km/h (77 mph). Everything had movement, and his wildness was of the effective variety until the 6th inning, when he and his defense faltered, before melting down (video) in the 7th. For the day, Otani struck out 11, walked 11 and gave up nine runs (five earned) while taking the loss.

Though Newman’s assessment of Otani was based on a single start, his less-than-flattering evaluation of Japan’s next pitching sensation highlighted more weaknesses than strengths, not to mention the large gap between his present ability and overall potential.

However, fast forward to the present day and the scouting reports on Otani now depict a future star with legitimate front-of-the-rotation stuff. According to Badler:

Otani’s fastball was overpowering, sitting at 94-98 mph and hitting the upper end of that range consistently. His lone run allowed came on a hanging slider to Brad Eldred, who crushed Otani’s mistake for a home run.

Otani, who’s 6-foot-4, 190 pounds, overmatched hitters with his fastball, though his 84-88 mph splitter was a solid pitch at times. He also throws a 78-81 mph slider and a curveball that he manipulates speeds on, ranging anywhere from the mid-60s to the mid-70s.

Now that’s more like it.

The Future

For those hoping to see Otani suddenly bail on his NPB career in favor of signing with an MLB team—don’t get your hopes up; both Darvish and Tanaka spent seven seasons in Japan before becoming eligible to be posted. ‘

Plus, after the latest amendments to the NPB posting system, which sets a maximum posting fee—a product of MLB teams’ feeding frenzy for the chance to land Tanaka—Nippon Ham will have even less incentive to make Otani a free agent after his required seven years in the league. Therefore, assuming the organization follows that regulation, it’s likely that the earliest we’ll see him pitch in the States is 2020.

However, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Given the ballooning injury rate this year among pitchers in the minor and major leagues, teams willing to shell out big bucks for Otani might be better off monitoring his development and health over the coming years rather than hastily going all-in to offer him an absurd long-term, nine-figure contract as a 19- or 20-year-old.

*All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Barring major spring training injuries, the 2014 Detroit Tigers profiled as the team to beat in the American League Central. Yet, if Jose Iglesias—last year’s AL Rookie of the Year candidate—misses significant time, the Tigers actually could be an even bigger lock to reach the postseason.

Of course, that’s assuming that Detroit uses its financial muscle to lure free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew off the street and onto the Comerica Park diamond to replace a now-injured Iglesias. 

The news and accompanying Drew-to-Detroit theory was offered by ESPN and Sirius XM baseball analyst Jim Bowden. Outside of media work, the former Reds and Nationals executive is familiar with front-office thinking around the sport.

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick later confirmed these reports, as it looks like the All-Star break could be the earliest Iglesias returns:

With shin issues sidelining the Tigers infielder, manager Brad Ausmus thinks reinforcements could be necessary, per Jason Beck of MLB.com.

“Depending on how long he’s going to be out, we may or may not need two shortstops,” Ausmus said. 

In this case, the connection is easy to make. Detroit is a legitimate World Series candidate, with or without a high-caliber shortstop. Yet, after trading for Iglesias’ dynamic glove, youth and upside last summer, the team was prepared to watch the 24-year-old infielder graduate into a dynamic two-way player in 2014 and beyond.   

With those plans on hold for the majority of 2014, Drew’s free-agent plight can become a blessing in disguise for a veteran team eager to win a championship before the roster ages and decays into a mediocre outfit. 

Drew isn’t a difference-making player, but he represents an upgrade from the young, unproven Iglesias. 

At this point, swapping Drew for Iglesias actually would bring the veteran Tigers closer to the World Series ring that has alluded them over the course of a highly-successful run atop the AL Central.  

During Drew’s eight-year career, the left-handed hitting shortstop has averaged 11 home runs per season and posted a .329 on-base percentage. While those numbers aren’t eye-opening, they are much more prolific than what the light-hitting Iglesias did with the bat during a 294-game minor league apprenticeship. 

Prior to last year’s call up in Boston, Iglesias owned a career minor league OPS of .622. Barring an unexpected uptick in offensive production, Detroit’s future shortstop will rack up value almost solely with his dynamic glove. On the other hand, Drew is more of a complete, all-around shortstop.  

Not only is Drew a clearly better offensive player, Fangraphs’ defensive numbers actually painted him as the better shortstop last season. Despite the highlight plays from the young and athletic Iglesias, Drew had a tremendous defensive season in Boston. 

While the average fan might call Drew a defensive downgrade, the numbers refute that notion. 

Over the long haul, the Tigers would be foolish to contemplate keeping Drew in favor of Iglesias. Over the next four or five years, Detroit could have a cheap, ascending option at shortstop, allowing the front office to spend lavishly on veterans like Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera. 

If a contract discussion with Drew’s agent—Scott Boras—does commence, expect a one-year deal to be as far as Detroit would be willing to go for a shortstop stopgap. Blocking Iglesias’ path and future in Detroit makes little sense.

However, with the Royals and Indians owning the potential to crack the 90-win plateau and challenge an injury-plagued Tigers team in 2014, general manager Dave Dombrowski and owner Mike Ilitch can’t sit around and wait for Iglesias to heal.

For some teams, 2015 and 2016 represent windows to contention and championship baseball. In Detroit, 30-or-over stars are the norm and potential big-money free-agent cases hang over the fate of this franchise.

From Torii Hunter (38) to Victor Martinez (35) to Joe Nathan (39), the Tigers aren’t built for tomorrow. In fact, at Comerica Park, there is no tomorrow.

Max Scherzer—the reigning AL Cy Young winner—is set to hit the open market next winter, perhaps carrying a price tag of $150-plus million. Miguel Cabrera—attempting to win three consecutive AL MVP crowns—could do the same after 2016, with an outside chance of scoring the biggest contract in the history of the sport. 

Through a combination of offense, veteran acumen, underrated defense and desperation for a place to play baseball in 2014, Stephen Drew represents the perfect antidote to what ails the Tigers heading into the final weeks of spring training. 

If Drew simply held the fort and kept Detroit afloat at shortstop, this fit would be obvious. But a stroke of luck has allowed the Tigers the avenue to pursue a shortstop better equipped to help win a title in 2014. 

Iglesias will be the better player over the next handful of years, but Drew is better now.

For the Tigers, that’s all that should matter. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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The Atlanta Braves—a mid-market team on the verge of becoming a large-market team with a new ballpark—spent the winter locking up young, ascending stars. Along the path to securing future cost certainty, the Braves inadvertently changed the business structure of large-market foes.

For years, large-market teams have used deep pockets to fill holes—replace aging veterans and re-shape short-term goals. 

That strategy—thanks to teams like the Braves using John Hart’s model for sustained success, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com—is becoming less and less feasible as front-office minds survey the landscape of the league and lock up young players years before free agency.

In big markets, the edict is now simple: adapt or perish.

Unlike in the past, ready-made, franchise-changing options are becoming less and less prevalent on the open market. Even when very good players arrive, the cost of business is so high because value becomes inflated. 

In order to survive, big-market teams must adopt the strategy of locking up their own young stars, delivering cost certainty and restoring order to the idea of payroll advantage. 

Last year, according to CBS Sports, the 10 largest payrolls in baseball belonged to the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Tornoto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals. 

Clearly, a list like that is fluid. In 2014, after spending during the winter, the Texas Rangers will likely supplant one of last year’s big spenders. Regardless of which teams are the top spenders in a given season, their advantage has been minimized because of the rush to lock up potential stars before free agency.

Over the last two years, the following players have eschewed free agency for lucrative, long-term deals: Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel, Homer Bailey, Freddie Freeman, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, David Wright and Brett Gardner. 

That group ranges from some of the best in the game to solid contributors, yet the same characteristic accompanied the entire group: A trip to the open market never commenced.

To be fair, large-market teams are generally spending to win—that means spending on veteran, high-priced talent. Often, teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies will trade away young prospects before they have a chance to make an impact and become potential extension candidates.

Yet, using the top-ten payrolls from 2013, a theme emerges: Each team has extension candidates in the organization.  

The game is changing one extension at a time. This change isn’t new but rather a theory used by the Braves this winter to secure future success.

In fact, the future payroll in New York may have played a large role in why the Braves are so willing to award Freddie Freeman a $135 million deal before his age-24 season. As Joel Sherman pointed out in the New York Post, Freeman was originally set to hit the open market at the conclusion of the 2016 season. 

Coincidentally, Mark Teixeira’s $180 million deal expires after the 2016 season. The Yankees, always in need of left-handed power, would have likely outbid Atlanta for his services.

For teams like the Yankees, Freeman is another name to erase from future free-agent classes. The following chart shows potential free agents over the next three years.  

The list isn’t great now, but will likely worsen as the years go on. Extensions will be handed out, further deflating the market and raising the prices for those who remain.

Furthermore, escalating arbitration costs were once a major detriment to small-market teams. When a player entered his third season, the cost-to-production ratio would begin to shift, forcing teams to auction off their best players in trades.

Now, with forward-thinking front-office executives, that’s becoming less and less likely to happen. 

For the big-market team desperate to win, outside alternatives are becoming impossible to find at a fair price. Forget about an advantage, a case can be made that the business models in New York, Philadelphia and Boston are detrimental to winning.

As salaries continue to rise, the game will continue to change and force owners into finding executives capable of unearthing advantages to win and save money.

For large-market teams looking to restore balance and reclaim an advantage, only one alternative seems feasible: grow young stars, lock them up to reasonable deals and have even more capital to spend on the rare free-agent gem. 

With Mike Trout (potentially) on the market after the 2017 season, the race is on for baseball’s biggest teams to smarten up and save pennies for a run at the increasingly rare free agent worth big years and even bigger dollars.

Agree? Disagree?

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Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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Looking at the calendar, seeing that the regular season is just around the corner, it’s amazing to look at the names still on the market who can be had for the right price. 

Of course, with most of the top players, the big caveat for a team trying to sign them is giving up a draft pick and the slot money that goes along with it. It’s amazing how much the new qualifying system has changed the way teams approach free agency. 

But as we move deeper into spring training, with injuries starting to pile up, teams may be more inclined to make an offer to some of the better players available. While nothing appears imminent, let’s take a look at the latest buzz surrounding them. 

Ervin Santana Still Not in Seattle’s Plans

No team has been hit harder by injuries this spring than the Seattle Mariners. They have already said that Hisashi Iwakuma, who finished third in AL Cy Young voting last year, and star prospect Taijuan Walker are not likely to start the season in the big leagues. 

Iwakuma suffered a finger injury early in camp, while Walker has been dealing with shoulder problems. It’s gotten to the point where the Mariners are going to put Felix Hernandez in a bubble to ensure he makes it to the regular season healthy. 

While it doesn’t sound like Iwakuma‘s injury is serious, Walker’s is concerning because you never like to hear about shoulder problems with a young pitcher. 

Despite those injuries, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Ervin Santana, the top pitcher left on the market, is not getting a call from the Mariners at this point. 

But Zduriencik also has no offers out for (Santana or Kendrys Morales) at the moment, and there’s no sense one is coming soon. There’s no suggestion, in fact, he’s ever made an official offer for either player, beyond the $14.1-million qualifying offer that was extended to Morales following his fine season in Seattle.

Santana was given a qualifying offer from the Royals for $14.1 million but turned it down. The Mariners don’t have to give up their first-round pick by signing him because top-10 picks are protected.  

It would appear the reason for Seattle’s lack of action is money. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported in December that the Mariners were nearing their spending limit after investing $240 million in Robinson Cano. They also invested $14 million in Fernando Rodney this offseason. 

Stephen Drew Not on Mets’ Radar

In keeping with the spirit of the last rumor, let’s talk about Stephen Drew drawing zero interest from the New York Mets. 

Drew’s free agency is more perplexing than Santana’s, just because of the positional value he has and a .777 OPS with 50 extra-base hits last year. He was one of four shortstops with an OPS of at least .750 and 50 extra-base hits last season (min. 500 plate appearances). 

But because the Red Sox made Drew a qualifying offer, teams aren’t beating down the door to sign him. It probably doesn’t help that Scott Boras is Drew’s agent. 

One team that has been constantly linked to Drew throughout the winter is the New York Mets, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that they aren’t going to increase their payroll. 

Executives I have spoken with say the Mets have indicated they will not add significantly to their 2014 payroll. Thus, while Drew’s asking price has fallen, it will probably never sink to a level these Mets are willing to spend.

Sherman also wrote that Boras has said Drew may wait to sign until June to avoid the draft compensation. 

Despite the Mets getting more publicity, it’s the other team in New York that should have serious interest in Drew. Derek Jeter is going to be 40 years old in June, played in 17 games last year and is about as bad a defensive shortstop as there is in baseball. 

Plus, the Yankees could put Drew at third base on days when Jeter is in the lineup as a replacement for Alex Rodriguez. 

George A. King III of the New York Post reported on February 25 that the Yankees were monitoring infielders this spring, but that was more about trades than adding one more free agent. 

It’s a shame what’s happened to Drew this winter, because he does have good value for some teams out there. Unfortunately with the draft compensation attached, those teams, especially smaller market clubs, can’t afford to sign him. 

Mariners Won’t Grant Robinson Cano’s Wish

Going back to the Mariners, who seem to be the focal point of everything this offseason, Robinson Cano made headlines when he told CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman that the team needed another right-handed bat. 

I’m not going to lie. We need an extra bat, especially a right-handed bat. We have many left-handed hitters. We need at least one more righty. You don’t want to face a lefty pitcher with a lineup of seven left-handed hitters.

Within that same piece (used in the Santana bit), Heyman says the Mariners aren’t going to make an offer to Kendrys Morales, who spent the last two years in Seattle and hit 45 homers during that time. 

Morales is at a disadvantage with the Mariners because they already brought in Corey Hart and Logan Morrison, two players who have had leg issues in the past that limit them to first base/DH duties. 

Cano’s comments weren’t out of line, though a lot of people blew them out of proportion because it’s fun to make proclamations about a player who actually took money to leave the Yankees. 

The point of what Cano said is that a balanced lineup makes it harder for teams to mix and match with their bullpen. Morales does add a dynamic the Mariners could use to make their offense more potent. 

Unfortunately, due to substantial financial commitments in other areas, Morales will have to find a new home. 

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