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As play heats up in Arizona and Florida, the start of the regular season moves closer to reality for baseball fans. Yet, despite the calendar inching toward spring, winter isn’t over for some teams.

Offseason activity still exists, especially within free agent circles impacted by draft compensation, lingering trade activity and teams looking to find the missing piece to a complete 25-man roster.

Although we’re finally to the point where play on the field overshadows the rumor mill, the hot stove isn’t totally cool just yet. For more than a handful of teams, upgrades are still available for the right price. 

Over the next four weeks, the rumor mill will churn out narratives, stories and juicy tidbits for fans to devour before the real games arrive. Of those, only some will have real meaning. The others will simply be noise.

The following is an attempt to separate fact from fiction during the busy, frantic days of spring training. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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With starting pitcher Homer Bailey officially off the 2014-2015 free-agent board after agreeing to a long-term contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds, the pressure could be rising for the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers to get deals done with their own free agent-to-be front-line starters. 

Red Sox ace Jon Lester and Tigers co-ace Max Scherzer, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, were already on track to be the cream of the crop when it comes to free-agent starting pitchers next offseason. Bailey had a decent chance to join them if he could duplicate his numbers from the previous two seasons.

But after the Reds guaranteed the 27-year-old Bailey (pictured) $105 million over the next six seasons—a total he wouldn’t likely have reached had he struggled on the mound or battled injuries during the upcoming season—his 2014 performance is now highly unlikely to have a negative effect on the market value of Lester or Scherzer.

If anything, the agents for each pitcher would have an even stronger argument should their client have a better season than Bailey, who hasn’t been quite as dominant as Scherzer over the past couple of seasons… 

…and can’t come close to matching Lester’s much longer track record of success. 

So while Bailey is a year younger than Scherzer and two years younger than Lester, that may have been his agent’s lone argument as to why his client’s contract should be comparable to either.

Barring a drastic decline from Lester—who Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald figures could ask for at least $20 million per season on his next contract—or Scherzer in 2014, their respective agents should be able to point to Bailey’s deal and negotiate an even better one.

This is bad news for their respective teams, who aren’t likely to view the compensation draft pick gained in June 2015, should either pitcher sign elsewhere, as much of a consolation prize considering how big of a hole either departure would create.

Had Bailey and the Reds been unable to reach an agreement, things could’ve been more favorable for the Red Sox and Tigers in their quests to sign Lester and Scherzer.

A subpar performance from Bailey in 2014 and there would be no $105 million deal set as the starting point in negotiations. A third consecutive strong season from Bailey would mean Lester and Scherzer (pictured) would have another established front-line starting pitcher to compete with on the free-agent market and their bargaining power could decrease as a result.

With this in mind, they could’ve been more open to signing a contract extension with their current team prior to the start of free agency. 

As things stand, however, the sense of urgency from the Lester/Scherzer camps to get a long-term contract done prior to next offseason has likely decreased. Next year’s free-agent market, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out, keeps getting worse with Clayton Kershaw also removed from the list after he agreed to a contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers last month.

The Red Sox and Tigers must now be the aggressors if talks are going to heat up and they must be willing to go well beyond what Bailey just received from the Reds. 

By allowing Lester and Scherzer to become free agents next November, the Red Sox and Tigers will risk the price rising even higher following a typical season from either pitcher and the bidding war likely to ensue with just two or three front-line starting pitchers available—Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson, another long-term extension candidate, would likely be third on the list. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

From the beginning of the MLB offseason, Nelson Cruz seemed like a very good fit for the Baltimore Orioles, with their interest in Cruz reported early on. They weren’t alone, however.

Several teams seeking a power-hitting outfielder showed interest in the two-time All-Star, which is why his reported asking price of four years and $75 million, per Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, didn’t seem too outlandish, despite his 50-game late-season suspension in connection with the Biogenesis scandal. After all, Jhonny Peralta, suspended for the same reason as Cruz, received a four-year, $53 million deal from the St. Louis Cardinals in late November.

Surprisingly, that price wasn’t anywhere close to what any team was willing to pay the 33-year-old Cruz.

As was the case when starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez fell into their laps earlier in the week on a free-agent deal much lower than what had been anticipated—Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported in early January that Jimenez sought a multiyear deal for more than $14 million annually; he signed a four-year, $50 million deal with Baltimore—the Orioles’ patience paid off.

Cruz agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal, as reported by Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes and Jayson Stark of ESPN Saturday.

It was only 10 days ago that I handed the O’s a “D” grade on their offseason, citing a lack of aggressiveness that would make it difficult to stay on pace in a very tough AL East. But with the additions of Jimenez and Cruz at those discounted rates, that grade has jumped to a “B,” with the team’s trade of closer Jim Johnson and subsequent failure to bring in a reliable late-inning reliever as the only concern.

Until the deal was struck with Jimenez, the team’s uneventful offseason was a concern for Orioles players, as well. All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that those concerns were eased after the Jimenez deal was announced. 

“It was a tough winter,” said Hardy. “There were times you questioned where this organization is going. It showed all of us that they were willing to spend some money and assures us that we’re trying to get better. That was a good sign. It definitely sends a message to us. And it makes us better.”

Adding Cruz only adds to that assurance and should make for a very confident Orioles clubhouse heading into the season.

The Orioles not only get Cruz at a very team-friendly $8 million salary for 2014—he can also earn an additional $750,000 in incentives—the concerns over his age and poor defense are minimized because it’s only a one-year commitment and they’ll likely be able to give him most of his at-bats at the designated hitter spot.

Cruz’s most valuable skill, his power, can also be maximized by playing half of his games at hitter-friendly Camden Yards—he has a .333 batting average (27-for-81) with two homers and six doubles in 21 career games there—and 10 games at Fenway Park, where he has a career 1.163 OPS and four homers in 18 games.

While he hasn’t had great success in the ballparks of the other three division rivals, the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, all are particularly favorable to home run hitters.

Hitting in the middle of an already very powerful Orioles lineup—the team led the majors with 212 homers in 2013; the next closest team had 188—Cruz has a chance to put up the kind of numbers that would make him a very attractive option on the free-agent market next offseason.

The right-handed-hitting slugger should be highly motivated after an offseason in which he left several million dollars on the table (he declined the Texas Rangers‘ qualifying offer of a 2014 contract that would have paid him $14.1 million) and had countless teams pass on the opportunity to sign him to a multiyear deal.

Cruz admitted to taking performance-enhancing drugs two offseasons ago in order to aid him in his recovery from a gastrointestinal infection that caused him to lose 40 pounds. If they were a non-factor in his 2013 success (.833 OPS, 27 HR, 18 2B in 109 games) and over the course of an impressive five-year run with the Rangers (.842 OPS, 27 HR, 29 2B, 81 RBI, 12 SB per season from 2009 to 2013), it’s not hard to imagine another big season that far exceeds the value of his contract.

Such a scenario would make the O’s and general manager Dan Duquette look like geniuses for waiting out a market that saw free-agent outfielders Marlon Byrd, Rajai Davis, Nate McLouth and David Murphy get two-year deals for $16 million, $10 million, $10.75 million and $12 million, respectively, and Chris Young get a one-year, $7.25 million deal from the New York Mets after a terrible season with the Oakland A’s.

A typical Nelson Cruz season will also have the teams that signed the aforementioned players rethinking their offseason strategy and possibly taking a more patient, Baltimore Orioles-like approach in the future.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The New York Mets have had a productive offseason in many respects, but they still missed out on a number of opportunities that would have improved their team in both the short and long term

The Mets addressed many needs this offseason, especially with their signings of Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon to bolster their outfield and starting rotation respectively. While filling these holes was necessary, the Mets missed on a number of opportunities to improve the team, especially since the signings of Granderson and Colon were geared to improve the team in the short term.

In early January, I laid out four areas in which the Mets needed to make further acquisitions, and they successfully completed two. They added cheap, veteran arms for their bullpen by signing Kyle Farnsworth and Jose Valverde, and they added veteran depth to their starting rotation with the acquisitions of Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lannan.

The team clearly doesn’t have the funds or desire to approach big-money players such as Shin-Soo Choo, Robinson Cano or Masahiro Tanaka, so I do not classify the failure to sign players like them as a missed opportunity.

Looking back at the offseason, here are the Mets’ biggest missed opportunities, although some of them could still be fixed.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

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Ubaldo Jimenez has finally found a new employer, but there are still a few premier MLB free agents available on the open market, despite the fact that spring training is underway in ballparks all across Florida and Arizona. 

Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales are the top targets up for grabs on the free-agent front. While there’s been a noticeable lack of trade buzz in recent days, there’s been plenty of talk about contract extensions for some of the brightest starts from around the game. 

So, here’s a look around the league at all the latest trade and free-agency updates. 

Note: All Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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After a winter of discontent in Charm City, the Baltimore Orioles took a talented team into spring training without adequate offseason additions. By shelling out a long-term deal for Ubaldo Jimenez, the team took a worthwhile risk.

Barring a snafu with a physical—something always possible in Baltimore—the Orioles landed a top-of-the-rotation arm. The news, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, rewards patience for a fanbase that had difficulty watching their team remain dormant for most of the winter.

If baseball had been listening, this move wouldn’t have come as a surprise. Orioles general manager Dan Duquette told Jonah Keri of Grantland that the team payroll could come close to $100 million before Opening Day:

We’ve got a budget where we can compete in the East. We operate within the market. That’s the right way to go about it. We put significant resources into the current team, into re-signing guys. A lot of guys are getting raises because they’re doing well. Through careful reinvestments, we’ve built a contending team, and we’re confident we’ll do that again this year.

After avoiding arbitration with Matt Wieters, Baltimore sat at just less than $80 million with six weeks until the start of the regular season. If an option presented itself, the Orioles were poised to pounce. 

To be fair, Jimenez isn’t perfect. If he was, the draft-pick compensation attached to his free agency wouldn’t have mattered and a contract in excess of $100 million would have arrived in his agent’s mailbox within the first few weeks of the hot-stove season. 

Over the last four years, Jimenez has been one of the most confounding starters in baseball. When he’s good, few pitchers are more dominant. Yet, when he’s not, it’s hard to justify keeping him around for more than one season. By offering Jimenez a four-year pact, the Orioles are betting big on his good side.

When the 30-year-old right-hander arrives in Sarasota, Fla., to join his new teammates, he’ll find a franchise eerily similar to himself: talented, yet flawed.

Despite winning 93 and 85 games, respectively, over the last two years, it’s hard to find a good word written about the Orioles’ trajectory or 2014 outlook.

Part of that was due to a confounding offseason in which Jim Johnson was traded away, Nate McLouth was allowed to depart in free agency and little groundwork was reported on long-term deals for talents like Chris Davis and Matt Wieters.

Another major part of the doom and gloom surrounding Baltimore’s chances in the AL East: starting pitching.

Or, a lack of high-end starting pitching. 

Despite playing winning baseball in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1996-1997, the Orioles didn’t impress analysts. Led by Buck Showalter’s preparedness and an outstanding offense, the team overcame poor starting pitching to contend in two consecutive years.

How poor? Baltimore’s starters pitched to a 4.42 ERA in 2012, good for 21st in the sport. Last year, that number rose to 4.57 and 27th in baseball. Only the Astros, Blue Jays and Twins posted worse ERAs last season. In reality, the Orioles should have been praised for winning so often despite awful starting pitching.

Jimenez might not be the cure to everything that ails Baltimore, but he’s a significant upgrade. Based on his performance in 2013, the Orioles just signed one of the best and most unique pitchers in the world. 

Last year, only seven starting pitchers made 30 starts, posted an ERA of 3.30 or better and struck out at least one batter per inning. The first six names on that list (subscription required)—Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, A.J. Burnett and Stephen Strasburg—aren’t hard to guess. Outside of Burnett, they’ve profiled as dominant pitchers on a yearly basis.

The last man among that septet: Ubaldo Jimenez.

No right-minded baseball fan would bet on Jimenez to match Sale, Hernandez or Strasburg in production over the next four years. Quite honestly, Jimenez’s biggest supporters wouldn’t even make that claim.

Yet, the Orioles didn’t sign him to win a Cy Young or match the best arms in baseball on a pitch-by-pitch basis. Instead, he’s been brought into Baltimore to upgrade a rotation that has been holding back a tremendous core of offensive talent. 

From Chris Davis to Adam Jones to J.J. Hardy to Nick Markakis to Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s core of position players are all between the ages of 27 and 31. That group doesn’t even include 21-year-old phenom Manny Machado. By the end of 2014, he could supplant his elders as the best player on the roster. As they smash the ball around Camden Yards, the team needed to support their efforts with capable starting pitching.

A quick peak at the new-look Orioles rotation gives a glimpse as to what Baltimore has built around them.

Led by Jimenez and 2013 All-Star Chris Tillman, the rotation has a chance to surprise. Right now, neither of Baltimore’s top pitching prospects—Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy—are projected to be part of the rotation when camp breaks. Gausman has all the ability to win the No. 5 starter job. Bundy, recovering from Tommy John surgery, could force his way into the mix by mid-summer.

Jimenez or not, the Orioles won’t be confused with the rotations assembled in Washington, Detroit or Los Angeles. That doesn’t mean that the Orioles aren’t deserving of baseball’s attention right now, though. 

If Jimenez can bring the strikeout rate, durability and second-half dominance (1.72 ERA in 78.1 IP after July 22) he displayed in Cleveland last summer, the Orioles may have done enough to improve a team that’s averaged 89 victories over the last two years. 

Awarding close to $50 million, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, to a pitcher that owns one of the worst strikeout-to-walk ratios over the last decade comes with significant risk (subscription required). Over the next four years, Jimenez could pitch down to his 2011-2012 standards (5.03 ERA), pitting this deal as a disaster for Duquette and Baltimore’s front office.

The risk associated with this deal is evident, but so is the upside. If Jimenez performs admirably, the Orioles can contend in the AL East and for a spot in October.

For a franchise that hasn’t won a postseason series since 1997, the time is now to command respect and show baseball that there’s a team to be taken seriously in Baltimore.

Agree? Disagree? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Teams that have patiently waited out the free-agent market in hopes that prices would fall are in luck. Even those teams that may not have been strategically planning for a last-minute acquisition could have a bargain fall into their laps in the near future. 

Late last offseason, the Cleveland Indians landed Michael Bourn at a discounted rate in mid-February, while the Milwaukee Brewers didn’t sign Kyle Lohse until late March at a team-friendly rate of $11 million per season over three years.

There are several impact players still available on the free-agent market this time around and not enough interested teams to drive the price up. Here are the top eight last-minute values. 

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When the dust settles on Derek Jeter‘s farewell season, the Yankees will be forced to face a question that’s been dormant for nearly two decades in New York: Who is going to play shortstop next?

For most teams, this is a yearly or frequent exercise. Unless a stud emerges from the farm system, finding a star-caliber shortstop is difficult. 

Luckily for the Yankees, one could be available on the open market next winter. 

No, we’re not talking about Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera or J.J. Hardy. While all are good players, none profiles as the perfect heir to Derek Jeter’s shortstop throne in New York. Instead, that distinction belongs to current Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez. 

In order to peel back the thinking within the Yankees’ brain trust, let’s take a look at why they would be wise to send a batch of scouts to follow Ramirez’s progress, health and ability throughout the 2014 season.

First, as always when it comes to free-agent signings, is production.

When healthy, Ramirez isn’t just a good replacement for Jeter; he’s one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball history. 

Since debuting as a 22-year-old star in Florida, Ramirez has raked. The following chart shows his production compared to every top shortstop in baseball history during their respective age-22-29 seasons. 

As you can see, Ramirez’s bat is among the best ever at the position. If not for health concerns, baseball fans would be plotting an eventual trip to Cooperstown for the 30-year-old slugger. Over the last three seasons (2011-13), Ramirez has played in over 100 games just once.

After averaging 152 games per season during his first five years in Florida, it’s fair to wonder if health will continue to be an issue moving forward. 

However, production shouldn’t be a concern. 

Last year, Ramirez was arguably the best hitter in the National League, posting a 190 OPS+ for the Dodgers during their run to the NL West title. In fact, Los Angeles’ ascension in the standings coincided with Ramirez’s return from injury in June.

While Yasiel Puig’s emergence received most of the credit, the Dodgers welcomed game-changing production from Ramirez during their 53-13 run from late June through early September. During that span (June 22-Sept. 3), Ramirez posted a .327/.376/.615 slash line. If that slugging percentage isn’t eye-opening, consider this: Miguel Cabrera’s .620 mark over the last two years is almost identical. 

Clearly, Ramirez can adequately replace Jeter in New York’s lineup. Furthermore, if his large frame (6’2″, 225 lbs) dictates a future move to third base—a position he played in 2012—it will buy the Yankees time to replace Jeter with a younger option and serve as a long-term plan for Alex Rodriguez‘s eventual exit from the Bronx.

From a lineup perspective, Ramirez’s power bat would provide a different dynamic to New York’s batting order. With Alfonso Soriano in the last year of his long-term contract, Ramirez could slide into the middle of New York’s lineup along with Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann, giving manager Joe Girardi a right-handed complement to the switch-hitting first baseman and left-handed catcher. 

Of course, there’s more to this equation than just production. If Ramirez is the guy to replace Jeter, a different set of criteria will apply.

The first—willingness to understand Jeter’s legacy and what he meant to baseball—can be checked off. 

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports spoke to Ramirez about replacing Jeter in 2015, assuming the Dodgers star doesn’t sign a long-term extension in Los Angeles before next winter. While dodging a question that could be a distraction in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, Ramirez went out of his way to praise Jeter’s career and what he meant to him:

“Everybody knows I grew up looking at Jeter,” said Ramirez. “It’s why I wore No. 2 in Miami. He was my idol, my hero. We’re going to miss him on the field. He’s great on the field, off the field. Everybody’s going to miss him.”

When Jeter’s retirement announcement sent shock waves through baseball, Ramirez echoed those sentiments to his fans. 

Outside of production and willingness to ascend to Jeter’s throne, the next Yankee shortstop will need to procure some of the leadership and team-first attributes that New York fans have become accustomed to since 1996. Earlier in Ramirez’s career, those traits were tough to find. Since arriving to Los Angeles, that seems to have changed.

When asked about Ramirez’s number tribute to Jeter, his current manager—and former Yankees captain and coach—Don Mattingly had this to say about Ramirez’s on-field character, per Morosi‘s column:

“We’ve seen nothing but a Derek Jeter-style player—a little different style, obviously, because he’s more flamboyant and coming from a different place. But we see a lot of the leadership qualities in Hanley. And it shows, now that you tell me, that he wants to be that kind of guy,” Mattingly said.

Over the next few years, a leadership void could be apparent in New York’s clubhouse. After recent retirements of Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, Jeter is the last leader from the successful teams of the ’90’s. When he’s gone, someone will have to step up.

While it’s not surprising to hear Ramirez’s manager praise one of his best players, the endorsement of a teammate carries significant weight. When asked about Ramirez’s presence on the field, Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis had glowing reviews of his teammate, per Morosi‘s column:

“Hanley’s such a joy to play with. He’s such a leader out there in the middle of the field, somebody I trust and count on to keep me involved in the game. He’s always somebody who comes to the mound [during conferences] and brings intensity and a strong desire to win that’s infectious to the rest of us.”

At some point, the Yankees are going to attempt to replace Jeter with a long-term option. In reality, no one can duplicate what Jeter is and has been for the past two decades. The next Yankees shortstop will be compared to a once-in-a-lifetime player.  

Ramirez’s apparent red flags—injury history, age, price tag in free agency—didn’t scare the team away from handing Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million contract this winter.

Next February, as the Yankees report to their first spring training without Jeter in over 20 years, signing Ramirez to fill the void is the logical move for a franchise in transition. 

Agree? Disagree? Who should be the next Yankees shortstop?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Major League Baseball is officially here.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks have opened up their respective spring training camps early in preparation for their season-opening series on March 22-23 in Sydney, Australia. The rest of the league is set to follow suit with pitchers and catchers reporting the coming days throughout Arizona and Florida.

Still, there are a handful of quality free agents on the market looking for work. Now that the season is so close, things are sure to pick up in the coming days, so here’s a look at the latest batch of MLB rumors complete with fact or fiction predictions.

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It’s the start of spring training, do you know where your free agent is going to sign? That’s the question facing quite a few player agents right now, as spring training is already underway and their free-agent clients remain all too, well, free.

It’s no secret that there are still plenty of players, including some with pretty big names—like Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales—out on the open market. It’s also no secret that the primary reason for this is the qualifying offer (QO), a relatively new element that was put into effect with the most recent collective bargaining agreement following the 2011 season and has unquestionably undercut the market of many free agents who reject these offers.

And now, reports are springing up that indicate the Major League Baseball Players Association isn’t exactly thrilled with the way all of this is playing out for the remaining free agents, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported recently.

While it’s unlikely that anything will change until the current CBA expires after the 2016 season, it’s at least worth considering some ways to go about fixing a problem that, ironically, MLB and the union unwittingly created.

First, though, here’s a look at the 13 free agents who received a qualifying offer, which in short, is a take-it-or-leave-it, one-year deal at an amount equivalent to the average of the top 125 salaries in the sport from the past season ($13.3 million after 2012, $14.1 million after 2013). If a player rejects the QO, he then costs his signing team a first-round draft pick.

The takeaway from this table? Of the 13 who rejected QOs back in November, all of only—count ’em—two signed with a team that directly lost a first-round pick as a result: Shin-Soo Choo, who wiped away the Texas Rangers top selection; and Brian McCann, who did the same for the New York Yankees, as he was the first of their four such signings.

Among the other six others who have signed contracts so far, four did so with teams whose first-rounders were either protected by virtue of being one of the first 10 selections (i.e., Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson) or already surrendered due to a previous signing (i.e., Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran). The last two? Well, Mike Napoli and Hiroki Kuroda simply returned to their “former” teams, so the draft pick never even factored in in the end.

Two of 13 free agents: That’s how many have been deemed worthy of forfeiting a selection this coming June, at least at this late stage.

Almost definitely, that will change once one of the so-called “Frozen Five“—Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales—sign their deals, provided at least a few of them find new homes rather than crawling back to their 2013 clubs with their tails between their legs.

In all between 2012 and 2013, qualifying offers have been extended to 22 different players in the first two years of this system—13 in 2013 and nine in 2012—and not a one has accepted.

Certainly, there are some cases where the player and/or his agent overestimated the market and would have been better off simply signing on the dotted line for one year at a hefty average annual value (AAV). Fact is, though, oh-for-22 should indicate that these offers aren’t considered worthwhile for one reason or another.

Keeping the draft-pick compensation in mind and in play—after all, teams should get some sort of reparations for losing a valuable player via free agency—here are a few suggestions that might tilt the table back in favor of free agents a little.

Protect Every First-Round Pick

Under the current system, only the top 10 draft selections are protected, meaning every pick from No. 11 on down can be lost simply by signing a player who negged a QO. That penalty has proven to be too much for many, if not most, clubs.

As Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required) reported in January, some teams aren’t even considering the idea of offering a contract to any player anchored down by draft-pick compensation. That’ll limit such a free agent’s market, all right.

The simple answer, then, might be to make all first-rounders protected, not just the top 10. On one hand, this would remove some of the advantage the lesser teams (i.e., those who finished poorly enough the season prior to own a top-10 pick) hold over those who were either in the playoffs or in contention the year before.

On the other, if signing a free agent meant teams could only lose a selection in the second round (or at worst, the compensation or competitive balance rounds), there would be more interest due to a lesser forfeiture.

No Draft-Pick Penalty…At All

What if this approach were taken to the extreme? What if there were absolutely no loss of a draft pick for signing a QO free agent?

Under such a scenario, just like the first one, any club that loses such a player would still gain a compensation pick that slots in after Round 1 of the draft. In other words, teams that say bye-bye to a key player continue to get what they do now, but no team has to worry about giving up a valuable selection or the corresponding money budgeted for that draft slot.

The big problem here? This might serve to widen the gap between the haves and have-nots from the last season, as well as between the big- and small-market clubs: The former would never be penalized for a big-money signing, while the latter likely wouldn’t be able to afford to take advantage of the no-penalty policy anyway.

If the current process is proving anything, though, it’s that many teams deem the cost of a high draft pick as a price unworthy of anything other than a premium free agent, like Choo or McCann. This is, more or less, the loss aversion theory.

Increase the One-Season Salary

As state above, a QO is the average of the top 125 highest salaries in baseball from the previous season. While $14.1 million—the amount this time around—is rather steep, perhaps upping the ante a bit would help.

Think about it: All 22 QOs have been rejected to this point. The obvious reason for this, is that the players and their representation believe they can score a multi-year deal rather than have to settle for a one-and-done pact.

If that one-year salary were based on, say, the top 50 in the game—thus raising the QO a few million dollars—it’s more likely that a player presented with the opportunity to make, oh, $18-$20 million for one season would jump at that. For example, Cruz would have, even if it meant losing the chance for the security that comes with a three- or four-year contract.

On the other side, this would give teams, including the big-market boys, much more pause when it comes to floating a QO that could hinder a budget and payroll, even if only for one year.

All in all, fewer QOs would be offered up, and those clubs that still take that risk just might be saddled with an extra $20 mill or so that wasn’t in the plan when the player accepts.

Multiple-Year QOs

The flip side to the previous possibility? Instead of upping the salary, QOs could be extended from one- to two-year deals.

This would make teams think long and hard about trying to gain an extra draft pick simply by sending out a qualifying offer to any old free agent for two key reasons.

One, clubs would have to worry about not one but two years, which adds a whole new dimension to things, including injuries, roster construction and payroll considerations.

Two, players would be much more likely to go for a contract that brings at least a little bit of stability—not to mention, a pretty nice annual salary.

Sure, guys like Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Choo would still be candidates for this kind of QO, but do you really think teams potentially would want to be on the hook for two years for lesser players, like Drew or Morales, let alone older ones, like Carlos Beltran?

Conditional Loss of Draft Pick

There may be something to any of above options, but perhaps the best suggestion is to make this whole process conditional.

Everything would stay the same as it is now, with the only difference being that any team that signs a free agent who rejected the qualifying offer would lose a draft pick—on the condition that the AAV of the player’s contract matches or exceeds the one-year salary attached to that year’s QO.

To put that in current and simpler terms: A contract given out this year to any of the above 13 players that averages out to $14.1 million or more would then cost that team a selection come June.

Examples? Well, all of the eight QO free agents who have signed to this point have done so for at least $15 million per year, so those deals would result in a lost pick.

This way would solve the problem facing just about all of the current Frozen Five, since the loss of the pick is a bigger impediment than anything else right now. But if teams could still sign one of the remaining QO free agents without having to worry about erasing their first-round draft pick—as long as the AAV came in under $14.1 million—that would keep a lot of doors open.

For instance, if the Baltimore Orioles, who have been linked to Santana per Rosenthal, didn’t have to worry about giving up their No. 17 overall selection, they would be much more likely to consider handing out, say, a three-year, $40 million contract.

That way, the O’s get their much-needed starting pitcher without forfeiting a valuable commodity come June, and Santana gets to enjoy a multi-year pact after a strong 2013 season.

Hey, it’s not the mega-deal Santana and his reps had been hoping for at the start of the offseason, but it’s certainly better than having no home as spring training starts.

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