Tag: MLB Free Agency

Is Japanese Pitching Star Masahiro Tanaka Worth Asking Price of $17-20 Million?

What is Masahiro Tanaka worth?

That question is bound to dominate Major League Baseball for the next few weeks, now that the star Japanese pitcher has officially been posted after months of expectation, speculation and anticipation.

While baseball’s free-agent pitching market has been delayed up to this point while teams awaited a final decision on Tanaka, said market is still relatively thin on talent. To wit, none of Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana or Matt Garza—the top three names that have been available since the start of the offseason—have even sniffed a deal. By now, it’s become pretty clear that teams are not all that eager to dole out major money to any of them.

This has led to early estimates that Tanaka could command a contract worth $17 million per year at a minimum, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

Folks, let’s face facts: Tanaka is going to get more than that. There are two major reasons why, never mind the lack of top-tier starters currently available.

And neither reason, by the way, even has much to do with the fact that he’s a 25-year-old right-hander who went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA over 212 innings in continuing his domination of Nippon Professional Baseball and helping the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles to their first-ever Japan Series win. Or that over his seven-year career in Japan, Tanaka has gone 99-35 with a 2.30 ERA.

Both reasons, though, do have very much to do with the new agreement, reached in mid-December, between MLB and NPB.

For one, there’s now a maximum of $20 million on what is called the “release fee” that goes to any Japanese team that is willing to post its player and will be paid only by the MLB club that ultimately signs the player. Gone are the days of the blind posting fee, where the one MLB team that put up the highest amount was awarded exclusive rights to negotiate with the player.

For another, because the release fee is “merely” $20 million—a figure that’s rather affordable for most MLB squads—that means that not only will more money go into Tanaka‘s pockets, but also that more MLB teams will partake in the process, giving the Japanese star more leverage throughout the negotiations.

In short, Tanaka will benefit because not only will MLB teams have more to fork over to him as opposed to the Golden Eagles, but he’ll also have more teams able to talk dollars and years with him and his representation directly.

By comparison, the last two elite, big-name Japanese pitchers to make the jump across the Pacific while in their mid-20s were Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2006 and Yu Darvish in 2012. Each garnered north of $100 million in total, but nearly half of those deals were spent on the posting fees. The Boston Red Sox paid $51.1 million to the Seibu Lions, while Matsuzaka got $52 million over six years; and the Texas Rangers paid $51.7 million to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, while Darvish got $60 million over six years.

If the total cost to acquire Tanaka remains in that same $100-$110 million range, he would be in line for about $80-$90 million himself, with the Golden Eagles getting $20 million. Spread over six years—the same number both Matsuzaka and Darvish got—that’s already $15 million per for Tanaka.

But chances are, because this new system allows for something close to a free market, Tanaka‘s price will be higher. That tends to happen when more than one team—and perhaps as many as 10 or 15—can negotiate with a player.

To that point, a number of suitors have been mentioned, even prior to Tanaka‘s posting becoming official. Among them? Many of the usual big-market clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants and Mariners. When the big boys get interested, involved and invested, the money is only going to escalate.

Already, it’s been reported that the Yankees, long considered the favorites for Tanaka, have been in touch with Tanaka‘s agent, Casey Close, who also reps Derek Jeter, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, per Marc Carig of Newsday.

But because Tanaka is only 25 and should have more than just a few prime years left—unlike, say, Jimenez, Santana or Garza—even rebuilding teams that are a year or two away from contending, like the Cubs and Astros, have been rumored to be a part of the chase.

Meanwhile, David Kaplan of CSN Chicago reports that the Cubs are going to do all they can to land Tanaka, even pointing out that they won’t be outbid:

With Tanaka officially being posted Thursday, the 30-day period for teams to negotiate and finalize a contract with the right-hander ends on Jan. 24 at 5 p.m.

Between now and then, we’re all but guaranteed to see a bidding war for Tanaka, one that could be dragged out and reach well into the nine figures over six or seven years.

Is Tanaka worth, say, $120 million for six years—or $20 million per? He projects to be a No. 2 starter in the major leagues, one who is smack in the middle of his prime, so the going rate would figure to be right in that range.

Between this offseason’s relatively thin pitching market, the recent success of Japanese arms like Darvish and Hisashi Iwakuma of the Seattle Mariners, and the new player-friendly posting agreement, ultimately, the question isn’t whether Tanaka is worth upward of $17 million to $20 million per year.

The question is: Which team is going to give it to him?

 

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


10 Low-Risk, High-Reward MLB Free Agents Still on the Open Market

Suffice it to say, the 2014 MLB free-agent market is getting thin. 

Sure, Nelson Cruz is still available. Plus, a number of front-line starters are patiently waiting for new deals while the Masahiro Tanaka saga holds up the entire market for starting pitchers. Of course, all of those players are expected to command top dollar. 

However, there are also quality contributors to be acquired at bargain prices. Many of them are bullpen options and bench bats, but there are even a few All-Stars in the mix.  

Here’s a rundown of the top 10 low-risk, high-reward MLB free agents still on the open market. 

Note: All stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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MLB Rumors: Latest Buzz on Kendrys Morales, Grant Balfour and More

The MLB hot stove has cooled off considerably in recent weeks. Many of the top free agents have come off the board, which has allowed those left on the market to await offers from teams desperate to fill a hole, with trades being the alternative option.

While the action is going through a little bit of a lull lately, which isn’t a surprise following the winter meetings, it’s only a matter of time before things heat back up. And even though the market lacks star power, there’s still quite a few impact players available.

With that in mind, let’s examine some of the latest fodder on the rumor mill featuring players capable of playing a key role for teams next season.

 

Kendrys Morales

Kendrys Morales doesn’t generate much hype as a free agent because he’s not a flashy player. Instead, he’s a solid hitter with a career average of .280 and at least 20 home runs in each of his past three full seasons. A perfect fit to fill a hole at first base or designated hitter.

Even though there’s been limited buzz around him so far, agent Scott Boras is trying to get the process moving along. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reports he’s contacted the New York Mets in an effort to open up dialogue toward a potential deal:

Given the immense struggles of Ike Davis, Morales would seemingly be a logical addition for the Mets, but the report doesn’t give any information about if the talks led to any progress. An American League team needing a DH would be a better fit since they could hide his subpar defense, though.

 

Grant Balfour

The New York Yankees face the daunting task of trying to replace Mariano Rivera at the back end of the bullpen. After watching Grant Balfour’s deal with the division-rival Baltimore Orioles fall through, Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reports they could add him to the mix:

According to industry sources, the Yankees have shown some interest in closer Grant Balfour, whose two-year deal with the Orioles disintegrated. Balfour has converted 62 of 67 save opportunities the last two years.

David Robertson would probably still be the favorite to serve as the team’s closer, at least to open 2014, after three terrific seasons of middle relief. But signing a fiery competitor like Balfour, who will be out to prove something to Baltimore, would provide a boost.

If for whatever reason Robertson isn’t able to acclimate himself to the new role, the Yankees would have a veteran closer ready to step in right away. The pen will certainly be leaned on heavily with question marks in the rotation, barring more arrivals.

 

Fernando Rodney

As expected, Fernando Rodney came back down to Earth in 2013 after a 2012 season that saw him finish with a microscopic 0.60 ERA and 48 saves. He still remained a reliable ninth-inning option for the Tampa Bay Rays, posting a 3.38 ERA and 37 saves.

Now, with the Balfour mess in the rearview mirror, the Orioles are back on the hunt for a closer of their own to replace Jim Johnson. Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish reports Rodney is apparently atop their wish list as they ramp up their pursuit:

The bullpen is definitely one area where Baltimore needs to focus some resources before Opening Day. Although the Orioles wouldn’t be able to expect the 2012 version of Rodney, even the 2013 level of performance would be an upgrade.

 

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Odds of Top Suitors Acquiring Top Available 2014 MLB Free-Agent, Trade Targets

Attention, holiday shoppers: If you’re a general manager of a Major League Baseball team, there may not be much available in position players anymore, but they’re not quite sold out just yet, and there still are pitchers galore ready to be plucked from the shelves in time for the new year.

As the calendar gets ready to flip, here’s a rundown of the top names who remain up for grabs as either free-agent factors or trade targets.

The problem for many of the former is that a bunch are second- or third-tier talents who are tethered to draft-pick compensation, which severely limits their market.

And of course, the holdup on the pitching side can be traced to the fact that the baseball world is waiting on a final decision about the potential posting of a certain Japanese right-hander.

The expectation, it seems, is that one of these last big chips is about all that needs to fall for the others to follow suit. Much like that big ball that drops at midnight next week.

 

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

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Red Sox Hurler Craig Breslow Dishes on Chemistry, Beards, Boston Strong and More

Earlier this month, Bleacher Report had an exclusive opportunity to speak with Craig Breslow of the Boston Red Sox as a part of his Strike 3 Foundation’s involvement with GE’s 3-D printing technology. 

On December 3, GE, represented by Breslow, participated in the first ever National 3-D Printing Day, attempting to highlight the benefits additive manufacturing presents the world.

I had the opportunity to represent B/R in a wide-ranging conversation with Breslow that touched on GE’s initiative, chemistry in the Red Sox clubhouse, personal and team-wide impact of the tragic Boston Marathon bombing and free agency.

Bleacher Report: How did you get involved with GE on such a unique campaign?

Breslow: GE asked me to be a celebrity influence for the cause. After hearing the benefits of this technology, it was impossible to say no to a great company. I’ve always been interested in different realms of technology, probably as an avenue to a post-career life away from baseball, and GE represented something great, along with a chance to learn.

 

B/R: Last year was a special season in Boston, but it began in the midst of tragedy after the Boston Marathon bombing. How did that impact you and your teammates? 

Breslow: Fenway Park became a base for Red Sox fans. They could get away from the troubles of the real world. The team appreciated that and wanted to honor those lost. It’s a fine line. No victory, regular season or postseason can compare or change what happened. It’s unfair to marginalize tragedy around sports, but we did our best to give grieving fans and a grieving city something to be proud of during the summer and fall.

B/R: Chemistry can be overrated by the sports media, but your team seemed to have something special. Was that organic or by design from the way management put together the roster?

Breslow: Management can put together a group that they feel will work well together, but it has to come within. Leaders like David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and John Lackey simply weren’t going to let another year like 2012 happen.

 

B/R: Who were the under-the-radar leaders in your clubhouse? We always hear about Ortiz and Pedroia, but every good team has veterans who lead by example or with vocal wisdom.

Breslow: David Ross and Jonny Gomes fit that description. Both dealt with issues. Ross had concussion problems, missing time and having to overcome a scary ailment for a catcher. Gomes had to deal with half the media questioning his importance to our team and inclusion in the lineup during a slump in the postseason. In our dugout, not one man was surprised when he hit a big home run to turn the World Series.  

B/R: Free-agent dollars have exploded around the sport. Your former teammate, Jacoby Ellsbury, recently signed a contract in excess of $150 million to play for the Yankees. How do you react to all the money flying around the hot stove?

Breslow: I’m happy for Jacoby, he’s a friend. We’ll miss him, but he deserved to be rewarded for a great career. Owners and GM’s might never truly understand how to value players. Premier talents are elite, and should be paid accordingly. A player’s worth? What a team is willing to offer. With TV and media revenue, the players deserve their share.

 

B/R: What about your position? Although you were one of the best relievers in the game (226 ERA+) last season, a contract like that will never be in your future. Outside of the Mariano Riveras and Jonathan Papelbons, free-agent relievers don’t garner lucrative, long-term deals. 

BreslowI think it will change some as time goes on. We (RP’s) don’t garner the innings or playing time, but the high-leverage moments are always in our hands. With less managers willing to allow starters to pitch complete games, the games can really be decided by bullpen arms. Big impact, small playing time, misunderstood value.

 

B/R: Does the discrepancy between the paychecks for starters compared to relievers strike you as puzzling? In this era, some young starters barely pitch five innings, leaving relievers to win or lose the game.

Breslow: To an extent. Anyone who understands baseball knows the value of great starting pitching, but the game has changed. Complete games are rare, and the bullpen has become a major component of how the game is managed and played on a daily basis. A lead, even if a starter does a solid job, is only worth a victory if the bullpen can close it out. Teams are only as solid as their weakest link.

To find out more about GE’s #3DPrintMyGift and the newest technology, click here

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball. 

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Impact Outfielders Still Available with Choo, Beltran, Ellsbury Gone

Christmas is around the corner, but don’t expect an impact outfielder under the tree from your favorite baseball team. 

Unless Nelson Cruz is the apple of your eye, the outfield market is close to bone-dry before 2014 begins due to a flurry of activity at the top of the market.

With Shin-Soo Choo‘s arrival in Texas, the top outfielders, including New York Yankees imports Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, are off the board. 

According to Yahoo! Sports’ free-agent tracker, Choo, Ellsbury and Beltran, respectively, were the third-, fifth- and sixth-best free agents available this winter. When factoring in Marlon Byrd’s signing in Philadelphia, Curtis Granderson with the New York Mets and Corey Hart’s relocation to Seattle, the outfield market has taken shape quickly.

The following is a look at what is left for needy teams, an outfielder with potential to once again profile as an impact player and the best of the rest.

*All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.

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Shin-Soo Choo and 10 Worst MLB Contracts of Last 10 Years

Back in April, I ranked the 10 worst MLB free-agent signings of the past decade, with a focus on two recent signings—Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton of the Los Angeles Angels—that were already in serious danger of joining them. 

While Pujols and Hamilton each have plenty of time to rebound and ensure they won’t crack any similar lists in the future, you can see how quickly a player can be hit with the “bust” label. Hamilton was only 20 games into his five-year, $125 million contract at the time of the article. 

So what will Shin-Soo Choothe newest $100 million man in the majors after agreeing to terms with the Texas Rangers on a seven-year, $130 million deal earlier Saturday, via Jon Heyman of CBS Sportsneed to do to avoid being lumped in with Alex Rodriguez and Chone Figgins and Barry Zito? 

Too late. According to Dan Szymborski of ESPN, his ZiPS projections place Choo‘s deal as the third worst in MLB history at the time of the signing behind Rodriguez’s second 10-year deal and Ryan Howard’s current five-year, $125 million deal.  

Looking at the 31-year-old Choo‘s “similar batters through (age) 30” comparison at Baseball-Reference.com, there isn’t too much to get excited about if you’re a Rangers fan hoping for a continued string of success throughout the course of his deal.

Two of the closest comparisons are outfielders Bernard Gilkey, who spent the majority of his 12-year career with the St. Louis Cardinals, and Rusty Greer, who played all nine of his big league seasons with the Rangers. 

Choo‘s 162-game average for ages 25-30 seasons (2009-13)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.290 .392 .469 .861 97 176 39 4 21 83 88 146 21 8

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Gilkey‘s 162-game average for ages 25-30 seasons (1993-97)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.289 .362 .464 .826 97 172 39 4 20 87 66 101 18 12

*Via Baseball-Reference

Greer’s 162-game average for ages 25-30 seasons (1995-99)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.309 .393 .449 .883 104 185 39 4 21 101 85 90 6 3

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Eerily similar, right? The only difference is that neither was fortunate enough to land a payday anywhere close to Choo‘s, even by the standards of that era. If they had gotten big-money, long-term deals that took them past their mid-30s, there’s a chance those contracts could’ve given Jason Bay and Gary Matthews Jr. a run for worst contracts of all time for a free-agent outfielder. 

Gilkey‘s 162-game average after age 30 season (1998-2001)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.242 .326 .362 .689 44 95 21 1 9 48 47 85 6 3

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Greer’s 162-game average after age 30 season (2000-2002)
BA OBP SLG OPS R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.290 .362 .438 .800 95 181 50 4 12 83 73 82 5 3

*Via Baseball-Reference 

Not only was Gilkey unproductive, for the most part, throughout the remainder of his career, he also had a tough time staying healthy with an average of only 87 games per season. He made over $15 million over the course of his last four seasons in the majors. Choo will make close to $19 million in each of the next seven.

While Greer continued to produce on the field, injuries limited him to only 73 games per season from age 31 until his retirement. Prior to the 2002 season, he was signed to a three-year, $21.8 million contract extension. He played in only 51 more games.

But is it really fair for any system to label Choo a likely bust already? Using Rodriguez, Howard and Werth as a starting point, here’s a look at some other seemingly risky investments and how they’ve turned out.

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Does Shin-Soo Choo Give Rangers Best Lineup in MLB?

In the long run, it’s hard to know how the Texas Rangers‘ decision to dole out over a quarter of a billion dollars to Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo will work out. In 2014, though, the team arguably boasts the best lineup in MLB.

What makes the addition of Choo such a shrewd move for the Rangers is that the 31-year-old is equally at home in both table-setting and table-clearing roles. In 2013, Choo posted a .423 OBP, which was the fourth best in all of baseball. He also clubbed 21 home runs and produced a .462 slugging percentage.

That means that Rangers manager Ron Washington can plug Choo into the leadoff spot or drop him into a run-producing role. Here’s what the Rangers lineup projects to be with Choo leading off:

  • Choo, LF
  • Elvis Andrus, SS
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B
  • Prince Fielder, 1B
  • Alex Rios, RF
  • Mitch Moreland, DH
  • Geovany Soto, C
  • Leonys Martin, CF
  • Jurickson Profar, 2B

The other option would be utilize Martin in the leadoff role and to push Choo further down the lineup:

  • Martin
  • Andrus
  • Choo
  • Beltre
  • Fielder
  • Rios
  • Moreland
  • Soto
  • Profar

Any lineup with Fielder in the fifth spot will be a nightmare for opposing pitchers. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports remarks, “My goodness is the Rangers’ potential lineup scary.” But is it necessarily the best in all of baseball?

In 2013, the Boston Red Sox could stake a claim to that honor. The World Series champions posted a .795 OPS as a team, which was No. 1 in all of baseball. While the Red Sox have retained a major run producer in Mike Napoli, the team has lost a major run provider in Jacoby Ellsbury. In 2013, Ellsbury scored a team-leading 92 runs while posting a .355 OBP and swiping 52 bases in 56 attempts. 

In 2013, the Detroit Tigers also had one of the best lineups in MLB. The club’s collective .785 OPS was second only to the Red Sox. Like Boston, though, the Tigers have also suffered a major defection this offseason. The club managed to get out from under Fielder’s massive contract, but his high level of production will be heading out of town as well. 

Miguel Cabrera will step in for Fielder at first base, and top prospect Nick Castellanos will take over at third base. According to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Castellanos is the 11th-best prospect in all of the minor leagues. Still, to expect a player who posted a .793 OPS in Triple-A last year to produce at Fielder’s level is a serious reach.  

It’s also worth noting that the Tigers haven’t necessarily improved at second base, either. Check out how Omar Infante‘s stats from 2013 compare to those of Ian Kinsler:

  • Infante: .318/.345/.450, 10 home runs
  • Kinsler: .277/.344/.413, 13 home runs

The Tigers clearly added some major payroll flexibility this offseason but at the cost of weakening the lineup in 2014. 

The Rangers, meanwhile, have followed the exact opposite approach. The team has opened itself up to some serious exposure by taking on seven-year contracts for both Fielder and Choo. By around 2017, neither one of those deals is likely to be terribly favorable for the Rangers.

In 2014, though, Texas will have the most dangerous lineup in baseball. 

 

Note: Stats via Baseball-Reference.com.

 

If you want to talk baseball find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Has MLB’s Draft-Pick Compensation for Top Targets Hurt the Free-Agency Process?

Matt Garza is a lucky guy.

He’s a big league pitcher who’s made millions to this point in his life and career, but because of a little quirk in a relatively new Major League Baseball rule, Garza may be in the best position of all the remaining big-name free agents.

No, the 30-year-old right-hander might not get the biggest contract of those who are still out there—and in case you haven’t noticed by now, plenty top-of-the-open-market players remain available—as that distinction still is likely to go to Shin-Soo Choo, who is easily the best option in a dwindling field of position players.

But because Garza is not tied to draft-pick compensation—simply by the virtue of being traded during the 2013 season—he is the likeliest to get a deal that is commensurate with his talent. Even, perhaps, one that pays him a bit better than that.

Meanwhile, fellow free-agent right-handers Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, both of whom had better seasons than Garza, may not be quite so lucky. Same goes for outfielder Nelson Cruz, shortstop Stephen Drew and first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales.

That’s because that batch of players, along with Choo, were extended—and rejected—qualifying offers from their respective clubs, whereas Garza wasn’t eligible to be granted the same offer because he was swapped from the Chicago Cubs to the Texas Rangers in July.

In case a refresher is needed, here’s the gist. The most recent collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect in December 2011—but which didn’t impact free agency for the first time until a year ago—created a new device by which teams are compensated for the loss of players on the open market: the qualifying offer.

That is, when a player’s contract is up, his club can choose to present him with an offer that is a one-year contract at a price equivalent to the top 125 salaries in the sport. For context, that amount was $13.3 million last offseason and jumped to $14.1 million this year.

Essentially, any player who rejects the qualifying offer is hedging his bets that he can sign a multiyear deal as a free agent for either a higher average annual value or a higher overall value.

Once a player turns down the offer, if he inks with another team, that team then loses its first-round draft choice (or second-rounder, if the pick is within the first 10), while his former club gets a compensation pick after Round 1.

Garza, on the other hand, was traded—and thus ineligible for this complicated tango—and he’s actually better off for it.

The fact of the matter is that teams have come to value their draft picks extremely highly in recent years, to the point where they either: A) will not forfeit a pick for a free agent unless that player is a top-notch talent worthy of such a penalty; or B) prefer to let the player sign with another club, rather than re-sign him themselves, in order to procure an extra pick.

Funny enough, we saw both aspects hinder Kyle Lohse last winter (which probably wasn’t so funny for him).

Lohse was coming off a career season with the Cardinals in 2012 during which he went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. St. Louis smartly presented Lohse with a qualifying offer, which he promptly rejected, figuring he would be able to land a nice bounty with several suitors seeking his services.

Problem was, that didn’t happen. Rather than see Lohse as a high-end arm, many teams instead viewed him as little more than a mid-tier free agent with an inconsistent track record and a recent history of injury issues—not to mention, a 34-year-old sporting a 4.45 ERA for his career.

And so Lohse didn’t hear from many teams. And so Lohse waited for weeks and then months without any real hint of a contract offer he had been expecting. And so Lohse, at long last, wound up settling for a respectable-but-not-quite-hoped-for $39 million over three years from the Brewers—a deal he signed only a week before the start of last season.

If Garza hadn’t been traded, he may very well have been this year’s Lohse. Instead, the scenario Lohse endured instead may happen to Jimenez or Santana or, more likely, Cruz, Drew or Morales, who are seen as nice players who can help a team, but not as impact talent worthy of surrendering a valuable draft pick.

For the very elite free agents, like Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury, or the near-elite types who play a tough-to-fill position or who are the clear top target at their spot on the diamond, like Brian McCann, the qualifying offer isn’t considered much of an impediment to getting a big-money contract.

Teams, though, are definitely wary of the cost of doing business with a player tied to draft-pick compensation. In fact, it’s gotten to the point—in only the second offseason with these rules—which we’re starting to hear that some clubs simply will not even consider giving up their selection in order to sign a free agent who rejected the qualifying offer, per Buster Olney of ESPN:

The Diamondbacks, though, aren’t the only club that is taking this stance. The Giants also fit that description, as Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area points out:

In fact, things seem to have gotten so bad for Morales, in particular, that Peter Gammons of MLB Network conveyed this troubling prediction from an unnamed general manager:

The reason for that, you see, is teams no longer lose a pick for signing a free agent after the draft. While the message is clear, it’s still unlikely that Morales (or any other player on the open market) will have to wait quite that long. The draft, as always, is next June.

And yet superagent Scott Boras, who represents Choo, Morales and Drew, all three of whom are still on the open market as the new year approaches, has made it clear that he can still find the right fit—and the right deal—for his clients, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times:

Boras, it should be noted, reps Lohse, so it was under his advisement that the pitcher turned down the one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer in November 2012. In the end, that worked out well enough for Lohse, although it certainly was an embarrassing, frustrating, extended wait.

The paradox of all this is that the qualifying offer was created as a way to help players with expiring contracts, and in several cases, it’s actually doing just the opposite by limiting their market.

It’s telling, then, that the number of qualifying offers increased from nine last year to 13 this offseason. It’s also telling that of those 22 total not a single one has been accepted.

Those two factors would seem to indicate that clubs will continue to present their free-agents-to-be with qualifying offers more and more each year, all with the hopes that the players will turn them down so the teams can score a pick.

But as the table above shows, of the 13 players who negged the qualifying offers this year, six have yet to land a new deal. In other words, it’s making things more difficult, for sure. Teams have realized that they need to build the cost of the lost draft pick into the contract for these free agents, especially the non-elite types.

Eventually, though, a tipping point will be reached. On the team side, this is going to happen because at some point, the average of the top 125 salaries in the sport—which continue to climb—will be too high to pass up for a solid-but-not spectacular player who would be just fine earning $15 or $16 million for one season rather than, say, $30 over three years.

On the player side, this could happen as players who reject the qualifying offer and then fail to get much, if any, interest on the open market, approach their previous teams about taking them back—at a reduced rate and with their tails firmly between their legs.

In fact, as desperation began to set in with the season approaching, Lohse came close to doing just that with the Cardinals, who more or less told him they would prefer the draft-pick compensation, thank you very much.

Clearly, this process, which was agreed upon by the Players Association in the first place, has become a problem for a few players during the first two offseasons in which it’s been in place. The top-tier free agents, like Choo, have yet to feel the effects, but others sure have, including Lohse last year and Cruz, Drew and Morales this year—each of whom remain on the market and could linger there for a while yet.

If only they’d been traded during the season, like Garza, that lucky guy.

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Departed MLB Free Agents Teams Will Miss the Most in 2014

The New York Yankees need to fill a Robinson Cano-sized hole in their lineup, but the club is far from the only team that has lost a big-name MLB free agent this offseason.

In determining just how detrimental the departure of a given free agent will be, there’s far more than on-field production to consider. There are plenty of players who provide value that transcends any statistical breakdown. Tim Hudson is widely renowned for his work on the mound, but he’s equally, if not more respected, for his intangibles off it.

With these considerations in mind, here’s a rundown of the departed MLB free agents that teams will miss the most in 2014.

Note: All stats via Baseball-Reference.com

 

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