Things have really been heating up on the MLB Hot Stove as of late. A number of big-name free agents have already signed, but there are more top players that are still on the market.
Teams will be competing over the remaining free agents, but there are some fits that are much better than others.
However, for one reason or another, there are many dream MLB free-agent fits that simply will not happen this winter. A player may be perfect for a team, but it might not be able to afford him.
With the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reporting that the New York Mets inked Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million deal, the team is undoubtedly improved heading into the 2014 season. However, if the Mets are unwilling to sacrifice more money or assets this offseason to further improve the major league roster, the deal will be a mistake, as New York will fail to capitalize on Granderson’s prime years.
The front office has long advertised 2014 as the year in which the Mets would start competing. With the Jason Bay and Johan Santana contracts coming off the books, fans have long dreamt of signing an impact outfielder such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, or Curtis Granderson in the 2013-14 offseason. With Matt Harvey emerging as one of the best pitchers in the National League, contending in 2014 seemed like a tangible possibility if the team had a strong offseason.
Harvey’s Tommy John surgery altered the Mets situation drastically. Heading into 2014 without Harvey, New York’s success depends heavily on the development of young hurlers Zack Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia as well as contributions from prospects Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. The Mets would also need young hitters like Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares to reach their potential if they have any chance at competing for a 2014 playoff spot.
With the still-developing Mets prospects’ seemingly bright futures further down the road, signing Curtis Granderson makes little sense unless the Mets continue to be aggressive this offseason.
As he currently stands as a player, Granderson’s presence on the Mets makes the team better. As a 33-year-old outfielder, the discernible skills Granderson brings to New York are his power and speed. He has struggled with making consistent contact in recent years, batting .231 cumulatively over the past two seasons.
Granderson should significantly improve the Mets for the 2014 season. Outside of David Wright, New York hasn’t had a position player with this much impact potential since the loss of Jose Reyes.
The slugging outfielder has been an elite big leaguer as recently as 2011, when he placed fourth in the MVP race, finishing with 41 home runs, 119 RBI and a .262/.364/.552 slash-line. While his batting average dropped to .232 in 2012, he still hit 43 home runs and was a game-changing talent.
Many baseball experts around the league have lauded the deal for the Mets. ESPN’s Keith Law believes that with New York’s young rotation, this signing immediately improves the Mets outfield and should help them compete in 2015. FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris thinks that Granderson should age gracefully because of his style of play, and that “He fills a desperate need for the Mets, who don’t have great short- or long-term options at his position.”
David Wright was also among those thrilled by the signing, as evidenced by the quote below:
Despite Granderson’s immediate impact on the team and the support behind the signing, the track record for outfielders following their age-33 season is bleak, a topic discussed in depth by Toby Hyde at MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com. Hyde analyzed players with similar skill sets and careers as Granderson heading into the latter stages of their careers, and found that almost universally the players’ WARs decline sharply.
Hyde also analyzed Granderson’s decline heading into this offseason, pointing out the very concerning increase in the outfielder’s strikeout percentage, rising from 19.9 percent in 2009 to over 28 percent in each of the last two seasons. With Granderson already noticeably declining, along with the poor track record of similar players, the chances of him being an above-average regular by the end of the contract are slim.
There is also the question of whether or not Curtis Granderson significantly cures the Mets offensive woes. As Kevin Burkhardt notes, in 2013 New York finished tied for 22nd in runs, 24th in OBP, 29th in slugging percentage and tied for 24th in home runs. They did this with Marlon Byrd in the lineup for most of the season, and Byrd hit .285 with a .518 slugging percentage and 21 home runs.
The Mets can expect slightly more home runs from Granderson than Byrd, with a significantly lower batting average. The Mets offense ranked as low as it did despite Byrd’s career year, and by replacing Byrd’s statistics with Granderson’s marginally better production, the front office made a small dent into the team’s offensive woes.
For fans, the Granderson signing is easy to like. While the Mets have stockpiled pitching talent, their lineup has remained underwhelming despite David Wright’s presence, and Granderson gives New Yorkers a reason to come to Citi Field.
Despite how the deal makes the Mets better in the short term, New York must approach the winter meetings with an aggressive attitude.
Bleacher Report’s Joe Giglio lays out his view of the next steps for the Mets, citing the team’s need for a shortstop, a stable first baseman and a veteran arm. If the Mets fail to improve the team drastically in these areas for the 2014 season either through free agency or trades, the Granderson deal will be a failure, as the Mets need to capitalize on the years of production the slugging outfielder has left.
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All statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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Who needs the MLB winter meetings?
Teams evidently didn’t want to wait until the second week of December to complete major offseason transactions. Impact players like Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Carlos Beltran all made decisions about their baseball futures on Thursday and Friday.
Grades for the latest signings and trades hinged on the financial consequences, of course, but also the “goodness of fit.” Adding experienced, talented (and, often, expensive) individuals is only appropriate when there are rosters that can be markedly improved by their presence. We’ve exposed a few violators of that concept.
Let’s recap and evaluate this exhilarating wave of moves.
*Stats via Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs unless otherwise specified.
After five consecutive losing seasons, free-agent disasters like Frank Francisco and payroll slashing into mid-market territory, the New York Mets made a splash on Friday morning. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, ex-Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson is on his way to Queens on a four-year, $60 million deal.
Just weeks after Mets general manager Sandy Alderson discussed a list of potential outfield targets to WFAN’s Mike Francesa, two have arrived in Citi Field. First, Chris Young came aboard, representing a forward-thinking buy-low move. Now, Granderson creates an even bigger splash for a team desperately needing one.
This was a necessary move for a franchise starved for relevancy, past the slow, methodical payroll purge and close to respectability in the NL East standings. In Granderson, the Mets are adding a legitimate power bat, leader and fourth-place hitter to slot behind David Wright in the everyday lineup.
First, dispel any notion that Granderson’s game was a creation of the friendly dimensions at Yankee Stadium. Throughout his entire career, dating back to his pre-Yankee days in Detroit, Granderson has profiled as a fly-ball hitter. According to FanGraphs, 44.2 percent of the newest Mets outfielder’s batted balls in play are fly balls in his career.
Unless Granderson’s move was from the Bronx to the Grand Canyon, plenty of those fly balls will find the seats and paying customers in 2014 and beyond. That thought process is buoyed by the noticeable difference in Citi Field’s dimensions and how the park has played since the franchise made the decision to alter the fences after the 2011 season.
From 2009-11, the first three years of Citi Field’s existence, the stadium was Petco Park east. Over the last two seasons, it’s been in the top half of baseball in home runs hit per game, per ESPN’s Park Factors.
With Granderson in tow, the Mets lineup looks much, much deeper and brighter than it did before Alderson convinced the 32-year-old to join the retooling franchise.
Of course, there is still work to be done for Alderson and the New York front office. Granderson is an excellent first step, but more will be needed to field a consistent winner at Citi Field. As you can see from that lineup projection, the Mets need to sort their first base logjam, find a capable, everyday shortstop, add a veteran arm and subtract from their excess depth of young, high-end starting pitching to fill a void or two.
When the winter meetings begin next week in Orlando, the Mets should remain active.
Granderson’s arrival helps give the Mets relevancy. It doesn’t, however, give the team a pass to pack up shop for the winter.
Soon, the front office will make a decision on the long-term outlook at first base. When assessing the Lucas Duda vs. Ike Davis conundrum, no consensus emerges. Duda possesses better plate discipline, but Davis has a 32-homer campaign under his belt. Alderson shouldn’t truly value one over the other this winter. Neither is a star. Thus, trading the first baseman that brings back the best return is crucial.
At shortstop, the team simply can’t bring back Ruben Tejada to start in 2014. After an injury-plagued and disenchanting 2013, Tejada looks nothing like an everyday shortstop. If Stephen Drew’s market price is within New York’s 2014 budget, he would be a perfect addition.
Finally, the Mets can’t be afraid to use their young pitching depth in a deal to acquire an everyday offensive player. Despite the loss of Matt Harvey for the 2013 season, Alderson is blessed with rising prospects like Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. If, say, Dillon Gee was coveted in a deal to bring back another everyday outfielder or shortstop, trading from a strength to fill a weakness is a very viable option.
Since debuting as an everyday player in 2006, Curtis Granderson has been a borderline All-Star-caliber player, worth 4.1 WAR per season, per Baseball-Reference. Granderson’s WAR per 650 plate appearances, or, in other words, what he brings to the table when healthy, is 4.5 per season.
The 2013 Mets suffered a fifth straight losing campaign. By inking Granderson, the team took one big step toward breaking that streak. Now, the work left to do will decide if playoff-contending baseball will return to Queens next summer.
Does Granderson make the Mets a contender?
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As Chicago prepares itself for its first major snowstorm of the season, members of the Ricketts family and the front office prepare to make the trip to Orlando for next week’s winter meetings.
Jealous much? Thought so.
Many topics will be addressed and decided on at the meetings, from the future of instant replay to the fate of free agents around the league.
Like every franchise, the Cubs also have many topics to address. The team has already begun to make moves, including the signing of free-agent reliever Wesley Wright and the acquisition of Kansas City Royals catcher George Kottaras.
Let’s take a look at some remaining questions for the Cubs in the 2013 offseason.
While New York Yankees fans await the next impact offensive signing, welcome Brian McCann to the Bronx and hope Jay Z is bluffing when talk of $250 million for Robinson Cano surfaces, the franchise has more work to do in order to field a championship club in 2014.
According to Hal Steinbrenner, the team is focused on doing just that. As part of a statement released to officially announce the signing of catcher Brian McCann, the Yankees owner talked about putting a team on the field capable of winning in October.
“The singular and unwavering desire of this organization is to construct a team each and every season designed to play meaningful baseball deep into October,” Steinbrenner said, per CBS New York.
If Steinbrenner is serious about October baseball, a major task will center around rebuilding a starting rotation that is currently barren.
With Phil Hughes officially gone and Hiroki Kuroda floating somewhere between retirement, Japan and another major league team, the Yankees have major holes to fill in 60 percent of their projected rotation for 2014. As of this moment, only CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova are guaranteed spots in the Yankees rotation next season.
As the hot stove continues to burn, expect the Yankees to amp up their pursuit of starting pitching, specifically arms that have the ability to pitch 200 innings in the American League East. In order to feel confident heading into 2014, the Yankees need to slot two reliable arms into the staff with Sabathia and Nova.
Allowing a young, unproven arm like Michael Pineda or David Phelps the opportunity to earn the fifth spot in spring training is logical only if the team anchors down the top four spots with sturdy and strong starting pitchers.
The following is a blueprint to fix a staff that finished 18th in starters’ earned run average in 2013, per ESPN. If Brian Cashman can follow the plan, along with improving the offense, while staying under the $189 million luxury tax, the organization will be set up for both short- and long-term success.
Build around CC Sabathia
Take a deep breath, Yankees fans. The prospect of building a rotation, in the American League, around the current version of CC Sabathia and enigmatic Ivan Nova is scary. That doesn’t mean it’s not the most logical course of action for Brian Cashman.
As the team looks for upgrades this offseason, innings, production and consistency have to come from the current state of the 40-man roster. Even if the Yankees had the desire to totally remake their rotation from scratch, acquiring five new arms is totally unrealistic.
In Sabathia, the Yankees must bank on track record, their own recent evaluation of the big lefty and peripheral statistics that suggest a much brighter 2014 than 2013 season.
With the franchise in search of durable arms, at least the most durable arm in baseball resides in the current incarnation of the roster. Since 2007, CC Sabathia has thrown at least 200 innings in every single season. Over that span, his 1,610 innings pitched puts him ahead of every pitcher in the sport.
While the Yankees might not be able to count on Sabathia to pitch like an ace any longer, they know he’ll give them innings every turn through the rotation.
However, if Sabathia does bounce back from an awful 2013 (85 ERA+), the team can cite their very recent faith in his long-term ability. After signing the then-28-year-old to a seven-year, $161 million deal prior to the 2009 season, Sabathia used an opt-out clause to leverage the Yankees into adding an extra year and $25 million to his existing deal after the 2011 season.
Essentially, with the chance to let a heavily taxed pitcher leave after three highly productive seasons, the Yankees guaranteed Sabathia over $100 million after his 30th birthday. If they were right about his long-term ability, building around him again in 2014 is a no-brainer.
That thought process should be enhanced by some of Sabathia’s statistics this past season. While his ERA (4.78), ERA+ (85) and WHIP (1.37) were all career worsts, the 33-year-old lefty posted almost identical numbers in certain categories as he did during a successful 2010 season.
The days of Sabathia as one of the very best pitchers in baseball are over, but the Yankees need to rely on a return to quality from their hired gun.
Count on consistency from Ivan Nova
From July 5 to September 26, few pitchers in baseball could match these numbers: 15 GS, 104.1 IP, 2.59 ERA.
During the thick of a pennant race, Ivan Nova wasn’t just good; he was the best pitcher on the New York Yankees staff. Every fifth day, the 26-year-old right-handed pitcher took the mound and gave Joe Girardi’s rotation a major boost.
Of course, that same pitcher started the season by sporting a 6.48 ERA in April, essentially losing his spot in the Yankees rotation and pitching his way almost totally out of the long-term thinking of the organization.
As Michael Barr of FanGraphs wrote in August, Nova evolved. With an excellent, hard fastball and sharp, biting curveball, the young pitcher always had the stuff to succeed but failed to find the right combination of pitch selection, consistency and command on a start-to-start basis.
Entering 2014, Nova will be a 27-year-old with four years of experience under his belt. After emerging as a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2011, he regressed in 2012 before resurfacing as a building block this past season.
For the Yankees to feel comfortable about their 2014 rotation, consistency from Nova is paramount. No longer are we talking about an arm with potential. Instead, this is a pitcher who posted a 130 ERA+ during his age-26 season in the Bronx.
By accomplishing that feat, Nova became the first Yankee since 1992 to pitch that well at this young of an age.
Add 400 innings from outside the organization
This mandate comes from Brian Cashman himself. With Phil Hughes set to revive his career in Minnesota, Andy Pettitte off enjoying retirement and Hiroki Kuroda in limbo, the Yankees need to find two reliable arms behind the Sabathia-Nova combo.
Unless the team is interested in spending over $75 million in costly free agents like Matt Garza, Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, the best place to look for rotation help is Japan. Specifically, one Japanese pitcher headed to American and another contemplating one more year in New York.
First, we’ll start with the incumbent.
Don’t let the poor results of late August and early September fool you when breaking down the excellence of Hiroki Kuroda. Since arriving in Los Angeles for the 2008 season, Kuroda has been one of the most durable and dominant starting pitchers in all of baseball.
Over that span, he’s one of only 13 starters to post an ERA+ of at least 117 while throwing 1,000 or more innings. Some names that didn’t qualify for that distinction: Max Scherzer, James Shields, R.A. Dickey and Matt Garza.
Yes, Kuroda won just one of his last 10 starts and pitched to an ERA over 5.00 during that span, but the Yankees will gladly take another 30 starts and ERA under 3.50 in 2014.
Ideally, Brian Cashman would add another, younger Japanese right-handed pitcher to the rotation by winning the posting fee for Masahiro Tanaka and securing him with a reasonable long-term deal. Right now, that proposition is up in the air due to complications with the posting process.
According to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, the deal currently on the table would limit the Yankees’ ability to come in with the highest bid and give the power to the player in selecting his next team. Under that scenario, there’s a chance Tanaka could land elsewhere.
Assuming MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball work out a deal in time for Tanaka to enter this free-agent class, the Yankees would be foolish not to bid as much as possible for the 25-year-old ace. In a primer written in September, the comparison was made between Tanaka and Kuroda. When evaluating and scouting the newest Japanese sensation, it’s impossible not to be reminded of a younger version of Kuroda.
When Brian Cashman looks to fill 400 innings from outside the organization, acquiring the older and newer versions of Hiroki Kuroda is the best route possible.
Give Michael Pineda a chance to shine
When the Yankees and Seattle Mariners agreed to swap Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda in the winter of 2012, the baseball world exploded. One of the top young arms in baseball for one of the biggest power-hitting prospects certainly had the potential to reshape the future of both organizations.
Thus far, it’s done just that.
Unfortunately, the net return has been poor for both sides. Heading into 2014, Pineda, due to lingering shoulder issues, has yet to throw a pitch in pinstripes. Montero, after several call-ups and demotions, has produced a listless 89 OPS+ in 663 plate appearances for the Mariners.
If Pineda can make it through spring training healthy, it’s time for the Yankees to bank on talent and give the 24-year-old a chance in the 2014 rotation. If you don’t agree with this assessment, listen to the words of one of the greatest hitters of all time.
During a rehab assignment last summer, Alex Rodriguez crossed paths with Pineda. After watching him work out and throw, the embattled third baseman had this to say about his potential, per ESPN New York:
“Michael’s a very special kid,” Rodriguez said. “You couldn’t believe how fast this guys is, probably as fast as any [pitcher in the organization]. You’ve got to see him run. In the weight room, he’s like a monster, as strong as you get … and I think that will translate, especially when he gets back from his surgery. It’s going to take time for him, especially a power pitcher, but I see him next year pitching 94-98, getting back to that velocity. And I think this year he’s going to be a factor at some point.”
Believing any A-Rod story is tough to do, but his depth of knowledge about the game of baseball is inarguable.
If the Yankees see the same potential they did in 2012 as A-Rod did last summer, it’s time to give Pineda a chance to round out a new, improved Yankees rotation in 2014.
How would you rebuild the Yankees rotation?
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Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariner?
If the latest report—that the Mariners have all of a sudden emerged as a serious threat to sign the five-time All-Star—is to be believed, the longtime New York Yankees second baseman-turned-free agent could be on his way to the Pacific Northwest, turning his would-be former team into something like a puzzle without its biggest piece.
After all, the Yankees’ chances of retaining Cano are “less than 50-50,” per a source cited by Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York in the report referenced above.
That may well be the case, but it is a bit—how should we put this?—curious that this news is breaking not long after some, like Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports (and yours truly), began wondering just what the actual market for Cano looked like after a wishful-thinking 10-year, $300 million contract was floated at the outset.
At least on the surface, this might appear to be a response by Cano’s camp, including his agent Brodie Van Wagenen and Roc Nation Sports founder Jay Z, to make it known that, “Hey, someone is into the idea of giving us a lot of money!”
That’s not to say, though, that Cano couldn’t realistically bolt from New York, exit stage left, to Seattle or some other destination. And that’s a possibility the Yankees need to be considering. And they are, it seems.
“We’re going to focus on those who gravitate closest to us or try and get a deal done with us,” general manager Brian Cashman told George King of the New York Post on Monday, the day before this Cano-to-the-Mariners scuttlebutt started. “We hope Robbie is part of that process, too, and we will stay engaged with him, but we seem to be more engaged with others right now.”
All this, then, does at least raise the question: If the Yankees do not re-sign Cano, what could they do with the money that appears earmarked for their longtime second baseman?
In short, they could do quite a lot. That’s because, according to various reports, the Yankees have made it known they’re willing to work with Cano in the range of $160-$170 million over seven years—somewhere between $22 million and $25 million in average annual value (AAV).
At the moment, the good news for the Yankees is that this offseason has been busier on the trade front than the signings front—there were, oh, approximately 27 trades across Monday and Tuesday alone—meaning there are still plenty of options on the market from which to choose.
It’s really up to Cashman and Co. to decide what to do in the event Cano chases the cash elsewhere. Because that, of course, would leave a lot of dough for the Yankees to work with.
Want a solid mid-rotation starter to fill in behind CC Sabathia (and perhaps Hiroki Kuroda, if he returns)? There’s Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana and Matt Garza, as well as innings-eater arms like Scott Feldman and Bronson Arroyo. And eventually (possibly?) Japanese stud starter Masahiro Tanaka, if a new posting agreement can be worked out.
In search of a reliever or two to help cover for the retirement of Mariano Rivera and likely losses of Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain, among others? Take your pick of proven late-inning vets like Joaquin Benoit, Fernando Rodney and Grant Balfour.
Looking for a dynamic bat to add some speed or thump to a lineup that already added Brian McCann but could use more, especially if Cano walks? Why, then, how about Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo or Carlos Beltran, who’s been linked to the Yankees all offseason? Or even old friend Curtis Granderson.
Point being, while losing Cano would hurt the Yankees, Cashman would have two things he won’t if Cano stays: the first is options; the second is money, and lots of it, which likely would mean multiple options.
For instance, going after Choo and Garza. Or Ellsbury and Tanaka. Or Jimenez, Beltran and Balfour.
Some scenarios likely would cost more than the $22-$25 million or so that’s pegged for Cano, but the numbers would be within that AAV range. Yes, even if the Yankees are aiming to stay under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold. And even if they have to pay Alex Rodriguez some or all of his $25 million base salary for 2014.
Of course, while it would bring more options and more money, let’s not pretend that letting Cano go wouldn’t also leave the Yankees with problems. For one thing, there is no in-house replacement for Cano. A play for Omar Infante, a quality second baseman with a solid glove and bat (not to mention, some postseason experience), would all of a sudden seem very logical. After Infante, though, second base pickings get thin, quick.
For another, the top remaining free-agent hitters that could be added to the lineup—which would suffer a major hit, let’s not forget—are outfielders, which just so happens to be the team’s one area of depth (if not strength). With Brett Gardner and Alfonso Soriano as the likely starters in center and left, respectively, that would leave one opening to fill with, ideally, Choo ahead of Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells, who fit better as backups.
The key for the Yankees is that any such addition, no matter the position, would be a clear upgrade to the current state of the 25-man roster and the club’s current chances to return to the postseason next year.
The Yankees’ offseason puzzle has only just begun to be put together by Cashman and his front-office cohorts. McCann was one piece. Cano has been expected to be another all along, so if that doesn’t happen, it would come as a bit of a surprise.
There are still, though, plenty of other pieces in play. And if Cano leaves, even more millions to spend.
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Robinson Cano is the hottest name on the MLB rumor mill at the moment.
The former New York Yankees second baseman, represented by Roc Nation Sports and rap mogul Jay Z, is looking for a mega-deal that at one point was reported to be in the $300 million range.
Cano hits the market with quite a track record. Entering his age-31 season, Cano is a five-time All-Star with a championship under his belt, is a career .309 hitter and has four top-10 MVP finishes.
Yet, New York is reportedly balking at paying Cano in the neighborhood of his alleged price tag. As a result, other potentially serious contenders for his services are entering the picture.
Here’s the latest.
New York Yankees and Robinson Cano Are “Oceans Apart”
It is no secret the Yankees want Cano back—for the right price.
Team president Randy Levine has said as much in recent weeks, per ESPN’s Wallace Matthews:
We want Robbie back; we think Robbie is terrific. But we have no interest in doing any 10-year deals and no interest in paying $300 million to any player. Until he gets a little more realistic, we have nothing to talk about.
Negotiations have continued, but Marc Carig of Newsday reports the two sides are “oceans apart”:
Go figure. The Yankees have enough cash to play ball, but understand that other franchises may not. Hence why the two sides are about $80 million apart after New York’s most recent proposal, per ESPN’s Buster Olney:
Cano, sources said, asked for a nine-year deal at $28 million a year, with a vesting option for a 10th year at $29 million this past week. That deal, at $252 million, would match Alex Rodriguez‘s 2000 deal with the Texas Rangers in guaranteed value.
The Yankees, sources told Olney, upgraded their offer to the $170 million range, leaving a gap of about $80 million. According to published reports and information from sources who spoke to ESPNNewYork.com, the Yankees had previously offered Cano a seven-year deal worth approximately $160 million.
There is plenty of time for Cano and the Yankees to work something out that appeases both sides. But the timetable may become accelerated, especially for the Yankees, with another team potentially entering the fray for the second baseman.
Seattle Mariners Have Emerged as “Major Player” for Robinson Cano
The Seattle Mariners appear serious about landing Cano.
Per Wallace Matthews of ESPN, a source says the Mariners are “desperate for hitting and desperate to put people in the ballpark.”
The threat is real. Another source says the Yankees’ chances of keeping Cano are “less than 50-50.”
Interest from Seattle would make sense. The Mariners finished 71-91 a year ago, 25 games behind in the AL West. A major part of the issue was the team’s inept offense, which ranked No. 22 in runs scored, No. 28 in batting average and No. 26 in on-base percentage.
Conversely, Cano has averaged 28 home runs and 103 RBIs in each of his past five seasons. He is also a major name who would routinely bring fans to the park.
Now for the wild card in the Cano sweepstakes—if the Mariners have truly revealed themselves as contenders for his services, other teams may come forward as well. Teams with deep pockets and similar needs as the Mariners, paired with the understanding that the Yankees are not thrilled with Cano’s asking price, may throw their names in the hat.
For now, this appears to be a two-horse race.
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The 2014 Boston Red Sox will attempt to defend their World Series crown with a new leader behind home plate. According to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year, $8.25 million deal to bring catcher A.J. Pierzynski aboard for the 2014 season.
By acquiring the veteran backstop, Boston is signaling the end of the Jarrod Saltalamacchia era in the Red Sox lineup. While the Boston front office will undoubtedly cite Pierzynski’s leadership skills, durability and home run power, it’s impossible to believe the Red Sox are a better team now than the 97-win outfit that dominated the AL East in 2013.
This deal, assuming Saltalamacchia’s free agency leads him to a two- or three-year deal on the open market, wasn’t about improving in the short term or keeping the status quo for a run at a 2014 World Series. Instead, as Alex Speier of WEEI.com points out, it’s about financial flexibility and keeping the catching seat warm for prospects like Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.
If the objective in Boston were to bring back the best catcher available for 2014, regardless of years or dollars, Saltalamacchia would be donning a Red Sox uniform next season.
In 2013, on the path to leading Major League Baseball in runs scored, Red Sox catchers combined to produce a .787 OPS and 70 extra-base hits. Those figures were good for third and first, respectively, among all major league catching groups, per ESPN.
Most of that production came off the bat of the the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia. After six years of below-average offensive production, the 28-year-old gave Boston a breakout campaign in 2013. Of the 70 extra-base hits to come from Red Sox catching, 54 came off the the bat of Saltalamacchia. Replacing those impact hits will be a difficult task in 2014.
The gap in on-base percentage between the two backstops may be even more of an issue for Boston than the extra-base hits. In 2013, Saltalamacchia posted a .338 OBP, good for sixth among starting catchers, per MLB.com. The ability to generate extra-base hits and walks, buoyed by a 9.1 percent walk rate for Saltalamacchia, helped Boston sit atop the MLB ranks in team on-base percentage.
While Pierzynski has posted a .322 career on-base percentage, including a .360 mark in 2003, the ability to draw walks has never been a major part of his game. In 2013, it became a liability. Due in part to a minuscule 2.1 percent walk rate, Pierzynski’s OBP was a paltry .297 last season. That represented the first season in his career with an on-base percentage under .300.
If we view the Saltalamacchia-for-Pierzynski swap in the landscape of the present, it’s a clear loss for Boston. Yet if we look at what the signing does for Boston’s future, while dissecting the past accolades for the new Red Sox catcher, the swap becomes a bit more palatable.
During the entirety of their respective careers, choosing Pierzynski over Saltalamacchia wouldn’t have been a difficult decision for most general managers in the sport. Due to consistency, longevity, power and leadership, the 36-year-old Pierzynski has been one of the best catchers in baseball for over a decade.
In fact, no catcher comes close to matching the durability of Pierzynski since the 2001 season. Over the last 13 years, the left-handed-hitting catcher has played 1,714 games, leaving every other starting catcher in the dust over that period. The most telling aspect of the names featured behind Pierzynski on that list: Many are retired or are no longer starting catchers.
If Boston wants to delay the big league debuts of their top catching prospects, Pierzynski is the perfect option behind home plate. Barring an unforeseen long-term injury, the combination of Pierzynski and David Ross should give manager John Farrell 150-plus games behind home plate, power at the dish and leadership in the clubhouse.
That, while valuable, isn’t going to help Boston win baseball games in 2014; at the very least, it won’t help them win as many games as they could have with Saltalamacchia in the lineup. Along with the superior offensive numbers, Saltalamacchia’s game produced 2.9 bWAR (Baseball-Reference), compared to 1.6 for Pierzynski.
According to FanGraphs, the gap was even bigger: Saltalamacchia’s 2013 season was worth 3.6 wins above replacement, while Pierzynski’s campaign only added 1.6 wins to the Texas Rangers ledger.
One year after a perfectly executed offseason plan, doubting Ben Cherington and the Red Sox front office shouldn’t be in vogue this winter. If the signing of Pierzynski is presented as an upgrade, eyebrows will be raised. Of course, it’s possible that Boston has information and scouting on Saltalamacchia that will make the difference in 2014 production between the two backstops far less than it was this past season.
Regardless, the Red Sox saved long-term money, gained a durable veteran stopgap behind the plate and didn’t go above and beyond for a player heading into free agency at peak value.
This move doesn’t make the Red Sox better equipped to win a World Series in 2014, but it’s consistent with the organizational approach that made a championship run possible in 2013.
Are the Red Sox a better team with Pierzynski behind the plate?
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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has tweeted that the Boston Red Sox have signed free-agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski to a deal.
Sean McAdam of CSN New England reports that the deal is only for one year. The Red Sox’s ablity to sign Pierzynski to just a one-year deal is somewhat of a surprise, given the recent run on catchers receiving multi-year deals this winter. It’s a good low-risk move for the Red Sox.
The 36-year-old Pierzynski, who will turn 37 this month, is coming off of a down season with the Texas Rangers. Pierzynski started to show some signs of decline, most notably posting the lowest OBP (.297) of his career in 2013 with the Rangers. He still managed to hit 17 home runs and knock in 70 runs, meaning that he should provide solid offense for the Red Sox.
Durability has been one of Periznski’s career strengths, as he has appeared in more than 120 games in each of the past 12 seasons. The Red Sox know that Pierzynski will play through minor injuries during the course of the season.
However, Pierzynski’s plate discipline may be an issue, with the veteran catcher only walking 11 times in 503 at-bats last season. The Red Sox like to work the count against opposing teams, meaning Pierzynski could be an odd fit in that regard.
There are three immediate takeaways from the deal from the point of view of the Red Sox.
First, Boston must feel that top prospects Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez are both getting very close to being able to help at the major league level next season, with Vazquez potentially reaching the majors during the second half of next year. Both prospects provide a tremendous amount of upside, with the 23-year-old Vazquez’s defense being viewed as MLB-ready right now.
The 21-year-old Swihart is likely being groomed to become the everyday catcher for the team, but that might not occur until 2015, at the earliest. Swihart looks like he could be the whole package, combining offensive potential with improving defense.
The second takeaway is that the Red Sox were only interested in bringing back Jarrod Saltalamacchia on their terms, likely a two-year deal with a hometown discount. With the free-agent deals recently signed by Carlos Ruiz and Brian McCann already this winter, Saltalamacchia should have better options available on the free-agent market.
The 28-year-old Saltalamacchia is easily the best catcher remaining on the market. Now that he knows he is not returning to Boston, his market should become much clearer during the upcoming winter meetings.
It’s a disappointing end to Saltalamacchia‘s time in Boston. Saltalamacchia was a productive and improving player with the Red Sox, but he seemed to struggle during the postseason and the defensive flaws in his game become more pronounced. Boston made the decision to move on from Saltalamacchia‘s potential.
Lastly, Boston looks likely to go into next season starting the year with a platoon between Pierzynski and David Ross, giving Boston two experienced, veteran catchers to lead the pitching staff.
Pierzynski has a career .290 batting average against right-handed pitchers and a career .322 hitter at Fenway Park in a small amount of at-bats. Prospect Ryan Lavarnway will again come to spring training having to open some eyes if he is not included in a deal this winter.
If Pierzynski can produce anything close to his career slash line of .283/.322/.428 for next season, the Red Sox would take that immediately for the 2014 season.
The bottom line is that Boston obviously valued roster flexibility and short-term contract length by signing Pierzynski, a blueprint that served them very well last season.
* Information from Jon Heyman/CBS Sports, Sean McAdam/CSNNE, Baseball Reference, Sox Prospects
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