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The offseason rumor mill has been churning long enough by now that we have a decent idea of which teams are interested in which free agents. As is the case every year, it’s pretty safe to assume the top-shelf players will be pursued most aggressively by deep-pocketed suitors with whom there’s an obvious fit.

But where’s the fun in predicting Robinson Cano to the Yanks, or Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Mike Napoli to the Red Sox? After all, it only takes one enterprising team to make a surprise bid and come away with a shiny new toy to show off to its fanbase.

Here’s a look at some of the top free agents on the market, and the teams that, while not considered front-runners to sign them, could nonetheless use their services—and might have the means and inclination to make it happen.

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Now that the MLB teams and players have had a few weeks to feel out the free-agent market, expect the action to heat up this week.

The San Francisco Giants made the offseason’s biggest pitcher signing so far on Monday when they inked Tim Hudson to a two-year deal worth $23 million, per Alex Pavlovic of the Bay Area News Group. In essence, Hudson did more than just secure himself a deal, as he set a benchmark for other potential pitcher deals this winter.

There are plenty of big-name targets available like Matt Garza, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez; however, there are some lesser-known pitchers who could have major roles with their new respective teams in 2014. Not only that, but it could come at a fraction of the price of the other marquee arms on the market.

Let’s take a look at five of the top pitchers on the market this year who may be overlooked but are capable of making big impacts next season.

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Nobody enjoys saying goodbye, a conversation MLB teams should avoid at all costs when negotiating with these free agents.

‘Tis the season of free-agent shopping, which means several stars will shift their allegiances to the highest bidder. As a result, plenty of those available sluggers and hurlers will get handed many more dollars than their stat sheets merit.

If the St. Louis Cardinals can look back at not retaining Albert Pujols and marvel at the deadly bullet they dodged, it’s hard to critique any general managers with the patience to play it safe. Some future deals (I’m looking at you, Ervin Santana) are simply a disaster waiting to happen for a squad desperate to prove its dedication to assembling a winner.

But I’ve been told this pessimism thing is an unhealthy habit. (Do they really know what they’re talking about though?) A few hidden gems exist in the open market, waiting to be discovered at a potential discount.

Those are the guys teams can’t let go. Now’s the time to remind those valuable players that they have etched out a life in that town, enrolled the kiddies in school and formed flourishing friendships with teammates.

Anything to keep them around.

Note: All advanced stats, unless otherwise noted, were obtained from FanGraphs.com. Contract information is courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Great pitching ultimately prevails in the MLB postseason, but qualifying for October baseball in the first place requires a formidable offense.

Five teams in particular ought to be busy this winter pursuing established hitters through trades and free agency as they aspire to remain relevant in 2014. 

We aren’t necessarily alluding to baseball’s bottom-dwellers. The Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and Miami Marlins, for example, have no sense of urgency to improve immediately. They’re amid the rebuilding process and not expected to achieve contender status until later this decade.

Rather, the following teams are those with the most to gain or lose in their offensive searches. Entering spring training devoid of substantial acquisitions would doom them to finish below the .500 mark, while addressing glaring weaknesses could elevate them into the championship hunt.

*All stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise specified.

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MLB free agency is a couple of weeks old, but we’re still waiting for the big fish to be reeled in by new suitors.

The offseason action so far has featured a few low-profile signings, but the dominoes have yet to fall when it comes to the top players available. For now, the hot stove is heating up heading into the winter meetings on Dec. 9-12 as teams communicate and get a feel for the market.

Let’s take a look at 15 of the top targets available, with a focus on their best-case and worst-case scenarios.

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Baseball isn’t played on spreadsheets, but to an extent, it can be evaluated on them.

Free agency is just one aspect in which knowing the numbers can be a way for teams to make better decisions and even find the occasional value signing.

As the sport has grown statistics-savvy over the past decade or so, finding said values has become challenging. It can—and does—happen, though. And in free agency, while getting great value (that is, better-than-expected production per dollar) is important, so is simply getting a quality return on investment (that is, not whiffing on a big-money deal).

That’s where it pays for teams to know some alternative numbers, statistics and metrics that are being used in evaluations.

Otherwise, teams are just, well, paying.

To be sure, because of the many, many ways to splice and parse statistics, there are more complex metrics than the ones that follow. But in the interest of time, space and decision-making, here are six stats that should be among the most prioritized when evaluating free agents.

For each, we’ll point out the 2013 leaders among players on the open market. And because this is also about the money, we’ll highlight which of them might be the best value.

For Position Players

ISO (Isolated Power)

Power is at a premium. You might’ve noticed over the past two or three seasons that the balance in baseball has shifted from offense to pitching. Gone are the days of players bashing 50 and even 60 home runs. Now, just 30 homers is an acceptably attractive number.

As a measure of a hitter’s raw power or ability to smack extra-base hits, ISO is a good number to look at for a team in search of a little more oomph.

wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)

It was all the rage about a decade ago, but on-base percentage is old hat by now. (It’s still a very suitable, sturdy hat, though.)

The new-age OBP is wOBA, because it’s scaled to look like OBP except it’s a much more all-inclusive offensive metric.

In short, wOBA accounts for all the various forms of a player’s production at the plate, from hit type (single, double, triple, home run) to walk to hit by pitch.

wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus)

This one puts all aspects of a player’s offensive contributions into the context of runs created compared to league average, which is 100. As an example, if a player’s wRC+ was 112 this past season, that means he created 12 percent more runs than league average.

Better yet, this stat is park- and league-adjusted, meaning players can be compared across teams, leagues, parks and eras.

For Pitchers

FIP-/xFIP- (Fielding Independent Pitching Minus)

OK, so I may be cheating a bit by lumping two stats into one, but there’s a reason for it.

If you’re unfamiliar with plain old FIP, here’s the quick rundown: It indicates how well a hurler fares in the traditional outcomes of the pitcher-hitter duel that the pitcher has the most control over—strikeouts, walks and home runs. FIP is scaled to look like ERA.

So FIP– and xFIP-, then, are an easy way to tell how well a pitcher performed compared to league average, which is scaled to 100, and lower is better. As an example, if a pitcher has an FIP– of 78, that means his FIP was 22 percent better than average.

The other good thing about these two? They factor in league and park adjustments, so comparisons are free and easy. That’s handy dandy for trying to figure out how a starter in a pitcher’s park might fit in a hitter’s park.

The one difference between FIP– and xFIP– is that the latter is based off xFIP, which normalizes home run rate.

The key takeaway is that while ERA alone is descriptive, FIP– and xFIP– are much more predictive. That’s extremely useful in the case of free agency, because any team that signs a hurler doesn’t want to know how he has pitched as much as they want to get an idea of how he will pitch.

K% and BB% (Strikeout Percentage and Walk Percentage)

Again, here’s two metrics roped into the same bundle, but that’s because they work best when utilized together to get a full sense of a pitcher’s ability to strike out batters while limiting walks.

K% and BB% are very similar to K/9 and BB/9 (strikeouts and walks per nine), except that instead of the results being on a per-inning basis, they’re on a per-batter one.

The reason this is better? A hurler who is giving up hits and walks or pitching in front of a poor defense is essentially getting more opportunities to strike out hitters, because of the very fact that he’s not getting them out in other manners.

Such a pitcher could still post a high K/9, but his K%—again, the percentage of all batters faced that he strikes out—would be lower, thus revealing how much less frequently he is whiffing the batters he does face.

Same goes for BB% compared to BB/9, and as we know, putting as few men on base freely tends to be a handy skill for pitchers.

GB% (Ground-Ball Percentage)

While strikeouts remain the most preferable form of out-getting a pitcher can achieve, ground balls are, for the most part, preferable to fly balls.

The reason, of course, is that even though flies turn into hits less often than grounders do, they are much more damaging (in the form of extra bases) when they do.

Ground balls, on the other hand, are very often either an out or a single.

The intention in all of this is to show how a few key statistics that are a layer or two below the mainstream (i.e., beyond batting average and runs scored, ERA and WHIP) can be rather useful when it comes to evaluating players on the open market.

By listing the top free agents in each metric, as well as highlighting the one who might be the best value (i.e., production per dollar) based on 2013 output, the goal is to open some eyes to show how the lesser names can actually, in some unconventional aspects, stack up against the bigger ones.

All statistics come from FanGraphs.

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If the Arizona Diamondbacks are serious about changing their fortunes this offseason, they should consider trading either Martin Prado or Aaron Hill. Both are good players, but with the development of Chris Owings, Didi Gregorius and Matt Davidson, the D’Backs are in a position where they could potentially move one of the veterans.

Arizona needs pitching, power and payroll flexibility. 

Trading Prado would be a tough pill to swallow given that he was traded for Justin Upton less than a year ago. Having to trade Prado to fill other needs would force general manager Kevin Towers to acknowledge that he waited too long to deal Upton and did not get enough of a return.

Trading Hill might be a little bit easier to stomach, partially because the D’Backs rescued him off of the scrap heap of the Toronto Blue Jays and the cost was only Kelly Johnson. Hill is a valuable player when healthy, but staying healthy has been an issue for him recently. Hill provides offensive production from a position where most teams are looking for defense first and offense second.

Hill could have value in that he is under team control until 2017 at a pretty reasonable $35 million.

I would suggest potentially moving catcher Miguel Montero, but due to his poor 2012 season and the remaining money on his contract, I can’t really see a team trading for him unless the D’Backs are taking a bad contract back or eating a lot of money.

The D’Backs have backed themselves into a corner. They have almost $80 million tied up into too few players, leaving very little room for improving the 2014 squad without getting very creative.

This should be a season where the D’Backs take a step back and try to regroup, but due to the uncertain contract status of Towers and manager Kirk Gibson, it is unlikely that the 2014 Diamondbacks will focus on development. Both men will be aiming to keep their jobs, even if their roster tells them otherwise.

Potential trading partners are teams that might have pitching to spare: the Tampa Bay Rays and the St. Louis Cardinals. Both teams need additional offense.

The Cardinals came up short in the World Series. St. Louis has the ability acquire Hill, and such a trade would provide a huge boost the Cards lineup. Hill would give St. Louis the ability to move Matt Carpenter over to third. He would give St. Louis much-needed offensive production.

And the D’Backs could acquire one of St. Louis’ young arms.

If Arizona can acquire a good young pitcher, it might take the sting out of trading Jarrod Parker and Max Scherzer. A rotation built around Archie Bradley and Patrick Corbin would be a fine starting point for Arizona, and Wade Miley would benefit from being at the back of the rotation.

Signing big-ticket free agents is unlikely given Arizona’s payroll restrictions. Trading away Bradley or Corbin makes zero sense if the object is to make the team better in the short and long term.

The Snakes will also have to make a decision when it comes to Trevor Cahill and Brandon McCarthy. Neither pitcher has lived up to his billing, and both pitchers are highly overpaid. Cahill might be more valuable simply due to his age and the fact that teams might view him as someone who can thrive in a better environment for pitchers.

The D’Backs have much to do this winter. They will have to be creative to do it. 

Information from Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus

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The Japanese posting system is flawed, but that doesn’t mean the New York Yankees are to blame.

At the general managers and owners meeting in Orlando, Fla., Pittsburgh Pirates CEO Frank Coonelly pointed out a giant loophole in the current MLB system for signing Japanese stars like Masahiro Tanaka.

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News provided the details of Coonelly’s critique:

Coonelly spoke up on behalf of small-market teams by proposing that posting fees be counted for luxury-tax purposes, which would likely bring down the numbers and allow small-market teams to enter the fray for Japan’s top players.

However, as Feinsand noted, not everyone agreed with the proposal. Yankees president Randy Levine rebutted Coonelly’s logic by drawing a parallel to the current system for signing Cuban players:

That, in turn, sparked Levine to counter with the argument that if Japanese posting fees were subject to the luxury tax, then the process for signing Cuban free agents should also be changed.

It’s an excellent point by Levine. In recent years, big-name players like Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig have also scored major deals. The most recent Cuban import, Jose Abreu, just landed a $68 million contract from the Chicago White Sox.

None of those signings counted against the international spending caps of the respective clubs, however, because that’s exactly how MLB and the players union drew up the rule. The same rule also excludes posting fees from luxury-tax calculations.

David Waldstein of the New York Times broke down exactly why the players union rejected proposals to tie posting fees to the luxury tax: “The union has no interest in rules that limit a team’s ability to spend.”

And why would the union have any interest?

One of the primary functions of the player’s union is to ensure that its members earn as much money as possible. If posting fees counted against the luxury-tax threshold, then clubs would have less money to spend on other free-agent signings.

As Coonelly argued, from a competitive balance standpoint, including posting fees in the luxury-tax calculation would create a more equitable market. But, the issue is not just about the conflict between small-market and big-market clubs. The input of the players is also vitally important.

For now, the Japanese and Cuban markets will remain outliers in the MLB free-agency landscape. As Feinsand noted, the earliest opportunity to change the rules will come at the end of the 2016 season when the current CBA expires.

Clearly, some updates are in order, but the changes will have to be fair to all parties involved.

The posting fee process needs to be reigned in so that all clubs can compete for the top talents in Japan. But the league and the player’s union will need to find a creative way to do so while not damaging the earning power of the players.

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As so many championship teams have proved throughout the years, signing the top free agents on the market is rarely the key to success on the field. 

The Boston Red Sox had the payroll flexibility to sign Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke last offseason. They passed. Instead, they spread out the wealth and filled out the roster with several veteran free agents who didn’t require more than three-year contracts. 

When Mike Napoli’s medical exam revealed a degenerative hip condition, they had to get creative to keep him from signing elsewhere by structuring a one-year, incentive-based deal. Stephen Drew was signed to a one-year deal at a bargain rate as he aimed to rebuild his value after an injury cost him most of the prior two seasons. Koji Uehara’s total cost for 2013-14 will be $9.25 million, which has already proved to be one of the best values of last offseason. 

It wasn’t a typical offseason plan, but general manager Ben Cherington executed it to perfection. 

The small market Pittsburgh Pirates also did well, freeing up about $6 million by trading Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox for setup man Mark Melancon and three other minor leaguers after signing Jason Grilli to close at a much cheaper rate. Then there’s the Francisco Liriano’s deal, which will pay him less than $13 million for 2013-14. It’s an even better value than Uehara’s deal with Boston. 

With the reported asking prices for some of the top free agents having reached alarming rates, several teams will look to get creative this winter as they try to fill holes on their roster without making the risky big-money deal to land the top free agents.

Here are some cost-efficient and creative moves that six contenders could make.  

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After seven consecutive years without postseason baseball and five straight without a winning record, New York Mets fans are anxious for general manager Sandy Alderson to be aggressive on the free-agent and trade market this offseason.

On Friday afternoon, Alderson was a guest on Mike Francesa‘s show on WFAN in New York to talk about his offseason plan and objectives for upgrading the talent base on the roster and to ask the impatient Mets faithful to trust in the process that he’s been working on since taking over as general manager in 2010.

I understand that people are anxious to see what we’re going to do. I’m anxious to see how everything develops. We’ve got some holes to fill, there’s no question about that. But the nice thing about that…is that it gives us a lot of different combinations. While there are some obvious weaknesses, there are also some areas where we have relative strengths…that we might be able to further strengthen.

From a rational and analytical perspective, Alderson is right to show patience with a free-agent period that has barely begun. Unlike Philadelphia’s Ruben Amaro, the Mets executive won’t be impulsive and set the market for flawed players. If it takes until January to sign an impact player, so be it. In fact, Marlon Byrd, recently signed by the Phillies, per MLB.com, after a tremendous 2013 for the Mets and Pirates, was a February signing by Alderson last winter.

Yet, as we know, fans aren’t rational and don’t always bring analytical thinking to the table in baseball conversation. Every day that passes without a major acquisition by the Mets front office acts as a signal that the team doesn’t care, ownership is broke and 2014 will be another disappointing summer in Flushing, Queens. 

Outside of David Wright, who signed a long-term deal to remain the face of the Mets organization last offseason, the Mets don’t have an impact bat in the lineup. Despite a young, ascending pitching staff that looks to be formidable even without Matt Harvey for the entire 2014 season, New York won’t crack .500 unless the offense is augmented around Wright through a major move this winter.

During the course of the conversation with Francesa, Alderson talked about his strategy for adding offense, especially in the outfield.

“I’m staring at my board right now,” Alderson said. “In the outfield category, I’ve got seven guys on my board who are free agents—varying degrees of quality. In the trade category just as an example, I’ve got four, five—nine. Those are guys we talked about internally. They range from A+ to C+.”

In order to appease the impatient Mets fans, the eventual acquisition must grade out as an A or B on Alderson‘s board. Complementary pieces are great for teams attempting to get over the hump and become a postseason contenders, but that’s not where the Mets are as a team right now. They are below average and desperately need an offensive jilt. 

Alderson‘s first two years in New York were used primarily to set the franchise up for long-term success through trades (Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler, R.A. Dickey for Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard) and allowing albatross contracts (Johan Santana, Jason Bay) to expire. Now the farm system is loaded with young pitching, and there aren’t any awful contracts holding New York’s front office back from making a splash.

Few rational fans expect the Mets to win a championship in 2014, but a reasonable push to climb over the .500 mark isn’t too high of an expectation. If the team can do that, the return of Harvey in 2015 will have the fans believing in championship aspirations for the first time since the 2006-2008 run in which the franchise averaged 91 victories per season.

That’s why a splash is so important to Mets fans right now. Over the next few months, Alderson‘s patient and analytical side must mesh with the desire to get better immediately. When the team does hold a press conference to introduce a new slugger or high-profile star to the city of New York, it will buy the front office time to complete the rebuilding project that started years ago. 

Despite acquiring high-end talent like Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Travis d’Arnaud, the fans in New York can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel fast enough. In order to gain the trust and patience needed to cultivate a long-term contender, Sandy Alderson needs to make a splash now.

Even if the win curve suggests that it’s more prudent to wait one more year, when Harvey is healthy and the franchise’s other young building blocks have another year of seasoning, fans won’t accept that type of delayed gratification.

At some point this winter, the present and future will collide in Queens. It’s up to the general manager to make sure it’s a smooth transition.

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