Tag: MLB Free Agency

The Hottest Questions of the 2015-2016 MLB Offseason, Post-Winter Meetings

Johnny Cueto and Jose Fernandez are just two of the big league stars whose future has yet to be determined as the winter meetings recede into the background and the 2015-2016 MLB offseason rolls along.

In addition to Cueto, there are at least a couple of prominent players who are still waiting to hit the free-agent jackpot. Meanwhile, Fernandez isn’t the only dynamic major leaguer who just can’t seem to shake all those pesky trade rumors.

After taking an inventory of all the action in Nashville, Tennessee, here’s a breakdown of the biggest questions (and answers) from the baseball week that was.

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Biggest Winners and Losers of the 2015 MLB Winter Meetings

There was a report Thursday morning from Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area that free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward could sign by the end of the day, “or very soon.”

So I guess we could wait to see where Heyward goes before we do winter meetings winners and losers. Or we could wait until Chris Davis signs. Or until Johnny Cueto signs. Or until the Cincinnati Reds make a trade that actually goes through.

If we wait for all the winter business to be done, though, we might be waiting until Gerrit Cole throws the first pitch of the 2016 MLB season April 3 at PNC Park.

No need to wait. The 2015 winter meetings are history, and that means it’s time for winter meetings winners and losers. The winter winners and losers will include Heyward, Davis, Cueto and more.

So here goes:

 

The Winners

Chicago Cubs

It helps to be going against the grain, and while seemingly everyone else in baseball is trying to get younger, the Cubs were willing to get a little older. Older and better, because new starter John Lackey (37 years old) and new second baseman Ben Zobrist (34) fit perfectly with the kids Theo Epstein and Co. have already assembled into a real World Series contender.

Epstein said last month, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs would need to be creative to add more than one significant piece, but he’s already added two (plus usable pitcher Adam Warren), and he still has potential trade pieces (Jorge Soler, Javier Baez) and maybe some money to chase more talent (Heyward?).

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Others will have the Diamondbacks on the losers list, because of the prospects they gave up to get Shelby Miller. They’re winners here, for now, because they’ve taken a team that finished below .500 last year and turned it into a true contender in the National League West.

As general manager Dave Stewart told reporters in Nashville, Tennessee, “For me, it’s the cost to win.” For me, I like teams that try to win when they have a chance. And with a lineup built around Paul Goldschmidt and a rotation that begins with Zack Greinke (who signed just prior to the meetings), Patrick Corbin and Miller, the Diamondbacks now have a chance.

 

Atlanta Braves

That said, the Braves are also winners, for now, because the Miller trade helps them with their plan to win—to win in 2018 or 2019, that is. They’ve assembled a ton of young talent with all the moves over the last two years (trading Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Miller, among others), and eventually the prospect hawks will rip them for trading some of that talent in a win-now deal.

They’re not ready to win now, so they’ve got another year or two where they can do no wrong. They won’t be fun to watch in 2016, but former Braves executive Dayton Moore (now the general manager of the world champion Kansas City Royals) can tell you rebuilding plans sometimes work out just fine.

 

Houston Astros

The Astros were smart/lucky enough not to end up with Aroldis Chapman and instead ended up with Ken Giles, whose age (25), stuff and years of control (five) fit their profile. And as Brian T. Smith wrote in the Houston Chronicle, the relatively low-cost deal for Giles leaves the Astros with the chance to do more to improve their already impressive team.

 

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers got their front-line starter (Jordan Zimmermann), closer (Francisco Rodriguez) and outfielder (Cameron Maybin) before the meetings began, but they still needed the depth in the rotation (Mike Pelfrey) and bullpen (Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson) they got this week.

Two questions remain: Are Rodriguez, Wilson and Lowe enough to finally give the Tigers a bullpen worthy of a contender, and is owner Mike Ilitch willing to spend even more to get one of the big-name free-agent outfielders?

 

New York Mets

It’s tough to be a winner when you lose out on your self-declared top target (Ben Zobrist), but the Mets’ pivot to Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera may end up fitting them better than a four-year, $60 million Zobrist deal would have.

Walker brings some of what they hoped to get in Zobrist (and what they lose with Daniel Murphy now likely leaving), and while Cabrera isn’t the great defensive shortstop they could still use, the infield depth means this is a better roster than the one that had a .500 record near midseason—if not as good as the one that went to the World Series.

 

Seattle Mariners

We kept waiting on a really big move, and maybe the Mariners still have that in them. But with the trades for Wade Miley and Adam Lind, Jerry Dipoto continued the roster remake he began after taking over as general manager at the end of the season. The Mariners already have stars, in Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz. They didn’t have enough players around them to win. Do they now? We’ll see.

 

Miami Marlins

They didn’t do anything, did they? Exactly.

The Marlins didn’t trade ace pitcher Jose Fernandez, and they didn’t deal talented outfielder Marcell Ozuna. What they did was reinforce the idea that Fernandez can only be had for an overwhelming price (they asked the Diamondbacks for the three players who went to the Braves for Miller, plus Corbin and infield prospect Brandon Drury, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald).

The Fernandez rumors won’t stop, and some will consider the Marlins a little duplicitous for claiming he’s not available while also listening to offers. But the way they handled the situation was downright responsible. How rare is it to be able to say the Marlins did that?

 

The Losers

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers haven’t necessarily lost the winter, but they sure did lose the meetings. They arrived in Nashville fresh off being outbid by the rival Diamondbacks for their co-ace, Greinke, and they made things worse by getting caught up in the Chapman mess (agreeing to a trade that fell apart because of his alleged involvement in a domestic dispute).

While it’s still unclear who knew what about Chapman when, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported this week that the Red Sox backed out of Chapman talks when they uncovered news last month. The Dodgers didn’t back out until Monday.

The result was a week spent responding to that double dose of bad news, with only a Hisashi Iwakuma signing to celebrate. Oh, and then there was the story my buddy Scott Miller posted on Bleacher Report Thursday morning—the one that included a former Dodger calling Yasiel Puig the “worst person I’ve ever seen in this game.”

 

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds lost their best trade chip when the Chapman case came to light, and now it’s unclear when or if they’ll be able to turn him into needed prospects. But it wasn’t just Chapman. For a team that smartly made all its players available, the Reds made surprisingly few appearances in the rumor mill.

That doesn’t mean they won’t deal Chapman, Todd Frazier or Jay Bruce, but by the end of the meetings, all remained on the roster.

 

San Francisco Giants

For the second straight winter, the Giants went after an impact starter and fell short (Jon Lester last year, Greinke this year). And while Greinke didn’t stay with the rival Dodgers, the Giants now face two strong NL West opponents with Arizona getting much better.

 

New York Yankees

Starlin Castro may turn out to be a nice addition, but the Yankees still make themselves sound like a limited-budget team, talking more about value and years of control than about talent and winning now.

They did need to get younger and more athletic, but by dealing away Warren (for Castro) and Wilson (for two minor league pitchers, Luis Cessa and Chad Green, as reported by Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press), they took away from their bullpen, which was a 2015 strength. They wanted to trade Andrew Miller or Brett Gardner for a young pitcher, with no success so far.

 

Tampa Bay Rays

They made every pitcher but Chris Archer available and had to be disappointed with the general lack of interest.

 

Aroldis Chapman

No one lost more value this week.

 

Johnny Cueto

David Price, Greinke and Zimmermann got their money. Cueto, who turned down $120 million from the Diamondbacks, seemed to be the forgotten starter this week.

 

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Free Agents 2016: Rumors and Predictions for Top Available Players

Dominoes are starting to fall this Major League Baseball offseason at the winter meetings, opening the door for deals to come fast. 

Ben Zobrist shook things up on Tuesday by signing with the Chicago Cubs, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. The ripple effect from that deal was Starlin Castro moving from the Cubs to the New York Yankees, and the New York Mets, who were in the Zobrist market, trading for Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. 

Marquee free agents are still all the rage this winter, as there are plenty to go around, though teams currently seem to be playing things slowly while waiting to see if they can get players to accept deals on their terms instead of driving up prices. 

When the one big domino—Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton—signs, the rest will follow quickly. 

The key is trying to figure out which side is in control at this point, so here are the latest rumors and predictions for key players available.

 

Baltimore’s Ultimatum

The market for first baseman Chris Davis has been slow to develop, leaving hope for the Baltimore Orioles to bring back the prolific power hitter. 

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the Orioles met with Davis’ agent, Scott Boras, twice on Tuesday, specifically to discuss re-signing the 29-year-old. 

However, Rosenthal added in that report the Orioles told Boras “they soon might pivot” away from Davis if a deal isn’t reached. 

It’s a hard stance the Orioles have to take because Boras loves to play the market as long as he can to get top dollar for his clients, so they could be out of options if Davis’ negotiations get extended into January. 

The Orioles have made a strong, legitimate offer to Boras for Davis, with ESPN’s Buster Olney reporting it is for $150 million over seven years. 

Davis is smart to wait before accepting any deal because he offers something that every team covets: power. The 2013 All-Star has led the league in homers twice in the last three years and hit 26 in a dreadful 2014 season. 

That 2014 season is a big problem for Davis’ negotiating leverage. He hit .196/.300/.404 in 127 games and was suspended 25 games for amphetamines. 

How is a team supposed to trust that Davis will show his 2013 or 2015 form, rather than what he did in 2014, throughout the course of a long-term extension?

It’s one of the questions every franchise has to ask itself before deciding whether to sign a player, but Davis carries more risk because he bottomed out in spectacular fashion so recently. 

As a result, it’s hard to see any team surpassing Baltimore’s offer for Davis. The Orioles know they need his production in the middle of their order to keep up with a much-improved Boston Red Sox team and still-dangerous Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East. 

Prediction: Davis re-signs with Baltimore for seven years, $150 million.

 

St. Louis Alternatives

The St. Louis Cardinals are facing big questions this offseason, largely because their rivals in Chicago have all the momentum after a 97-win season and the addition of Zobrist and the Pittsburgh Pirates are still as dangerous as anyone in the National League. 

The Cardinals also have to deal with losing arguably the best position player available (Heyward) with no obvious alternative, but Rosenthal has added one name to the mix:

Speaking of Heyward and the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the team still has interest in the star right fielder even after signing Zobrist. Heyman also added the Cubs are looking at Denard Span “and others” to plug their hole in center field. 

In the event Heyward becomes too expensive for the Cardinals, Gordon wouldn’t be a bad alternative. He’s got an obvious connection to the state of Missouri after being drafted by the Kansas City Royals and spending nine years with the franchise. 

Gordon will also cost significantly less than Heyward by virtue of being more than five years older. He’s not the same dynamic talent, but their career hitting lines are very similar:

The Cardinals don’t necessarily need to add another outfielder this offseason with Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk locked into starting roles.

But Holliday and Grichuk combined to miss 148 games last year, and the Cardinals could explore trade options to bolster their starting rotation with one of those outfielders in the event they add Gordon to the mix. 

Heyward still feels like the Cardinals’ No. 1 option, and the team has plenty of television money that will start coming in for the 2018 season, but the long-term cost of Gordon is more in tune with what they can do. 

Prediction: Gordon signs with St. Louis for four years, $75 million.

 

New Dexter Fowler Suitor

One underrated free agent who will draw a lot of attention when the major players are off the board is Dexter Fowler, who is coming off a stellar year with the Cubs in which he hit .250/.346/.411 with a career-high 17 home runs. 

A team in the market for outfield help that has at least mentioned Fowler’s name is the San Francisco Giants, according to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick

Adding Fowler would require some maneuvering for the Giants, who have two center fielders in Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco, but need someone to play left field. Fowler has played center field throughout his career, but has not done it well. 

Putting a player with Fowler’s limited defensive skill set in AT&T Park’s spacious center field has disaster written all over it. 

The Giants certainly know this and should present Fowler with an opportunity to play left field for them, where his defense can be hidden and his .363 career on-base percentage will play nicely atop a lineup that features Joe Panik, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt right behind him.

Ahmed Fareed of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area reported the Giants will “go big for another pitcher or a left fielder, but not both.” They already spent $90 million over five years to put Jeff Samardzija in their starting rotation, per MLB.com.

Fowler does have concerns beyond his glove. Last year was the first time since 2012 and just the second time in his career he’s broken the 140-game barrier, so injuries have to be considered as he prepares to turn 30 in March. 

Yet for a franchise built to win now and in desperate need of another outfielder, the Giants need to find a solution this offseason. Fowler will likely be a cheaper alternative to even Gordon because his defense isn’t at the same level.

Prediction: Fowler signs with San Francisco for four years, $52 million.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Winter Meetings 2015: Live Coverage of Rule 5 Draft, Latest Rumors and Deals

It was a sleepy final day at the 2015 MLB winter meetings.

While stars like Jason Heyward, Johnny Cueto, Yoenis Cespedes and Chris Davis all remain unaccounted for on the free-agent front, the headliners in Nashville included Tony Sipp and Yunel Escobar.

Per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Houston Astros brought back the lefty on a three-year, $18 million deal. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals shipped Escobar to the Los Angeles Angels, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

You can find an overview of all the signings, trades and waiver claims from the day below and the results from the major league Rule 5 draft right here.

 

 Signings, trades and waiver claims from today:

  • 1B Mark Reynolds signs a one-year, $2.6 million deal with the Rockies, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
  • The Padres acquire OF Jabari Blash from the Oakland Athletics as the PTBNL in the Yonder Alonso trade, per the team’s Twitter account.
  • The Padres acquire RHP Luis Perdomo from the Rockies, per the team’s Twitter account.
  • LHP Tony Sipp signs a three-year, $18 million deal with the Astros, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
  • RHP Shawn Kelly signs a three-year deal for $15 million to $16 million with the Nationals, per Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.
  • The Brewers acquire C Manny Pina from the Tigers as the PTBNL in the Francisco Rodriguez trade, per the team’s Twitter account
  • The Angels acquire INF Yunel Escobar from the Nationals for RHP Trevor Gott and RHP Michael Brady, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times
  • RHP Jonathan Broxton signs a two-year, $7.5 million deal with the Cardinals, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today
  • The Orioles claim LHP Edgar Olmos off waivers from the Cubs and designate OF Junior Lake for assignment, per the team’s Twitter account

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2016 MLB Free Agents: Top Rumors and Predictions for Winter Meetings

Surprisingly, the 2015 Major League Baseball winter meetings have yielded very little results on the free-agent market. There have been some deals, mostly involving relief pitchers, but everyone seems to be waiting for the one big shoe to drop. 

The market for starting pitchers has already been set with David Price and Zack Greinke, the two best players available regardless of position, signing with the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks before the baseball world converged on Nashville, Tennessee. 

Position players have been a different story as two full days passed with no action, despite having players like Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon available. 

Looking into the crystal ball, Wednesday has to yield major results because teams are quick to leave the winter meetings following the Rule 5 draft on Thursday morning. 

The rumor mill is churning out a lot of information about available players, so here’s the latest rumors and predictions for where they will end up. 

 

West Coast Suitor for Justin Upton

After spending last season with the San Diego Padres, Justin Upton is attracting the attention of another California-based team. 

According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the Los Angeles Angels were having “ongoing conversations” with Upton’s representatives. In typical rumor fashion, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported that there was “currently nothing happening” between the Angels and Upton. 

The Angels have also been linked to Yoenis Cespedes, though that sounds less optimistic than Upton, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News:

Left field was a void for the Angels in 2015, as the group hit a collective .216/.275/.317 with 34 extra-base hits in 556 at-bats, so either Upton or Cespedes would be massive upgrades at the position offensively.

Upton does feel more likely to remain on the Angels’ radar because he should come at a lower cost than Cespedes, who has already said he wants a six-year contract.  

It would also benefit the Angels to go after Upton because he’s two years younger than Cespedes, making him more likely to hold value throughout a long-term deal. 

While Upton’s stock may be down after he hit just .251/.336/.454 with the Padres last year, he was playing half of his games in Petco Park and other National League West stadiums, like Chavez Ravine and AT&T Park, are not exactly hitter-friendly. 

One key note for the Angels is their payroll flexibility is very favorable moving forward. They have $134 million in commitments for 2016, but that figure drops to $91.9 million in 2017 when players like C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver come off the books.

With Mike Trout signed through 2020, the Angels have to strike while their window is open. Upton is a perfect upside play this offseason, because he’s hit at least 26 home runs each of the past three seasons with some room to grow. 

Prediction: Upton signs with Angels for five years, $110 million.

 

Chris Davis’ Price Set

While the market for Chris Davis hasn’t come together yet, agent Scott Boras isn’t shying away from setting the price sky high. 

According to George A. King III of the New York Post, citing a source when the New York Yankees were thought to have interest in the slugging first baseman, “he wants [Mark] Teixeira money.”

As a refresher, Teixeira money equates to $180 million over eight years. While that does sound exorbitant, especially given how injuries have limited Teixeira the past four years, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted Davis would receive a deal with more average annual money (six years, $144 million). 

Plus, Boras is a master negotiator who rarely settles for less than what he believes his clients to be worth. That can lead to prolonged negotiations. Remember when Prince Fielder seemed to have no market in 2011, then Victor Martinez got hurt and the Detroit Tigers put up $214 million for nine years?

The Baltimore Orioles continue to hang around Davis, with Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reporting the team met with Boras on Tuesday to discuss the All-Star first baseman.

Kubatko did note in the same report that Pedro Alvarez, who is a free agent after being non-tenedered by the Pittsburgh Pirates, is also represented by Boras. He could be a fallback plan for the Orioles in the event Davis signs elsewhere. 

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun did report that the Orioles are not likely to make the biggest offer to Davis:

One source said that the organization would not be comfortable agreeing to a $150-175 million deal with Davis, which seems like it could be the market range.

Yet, sources also say the Orioles believe they have a fighting chance to retain Davis — and that’s where the hometown discount will have to come in.

Davis’ market likely doesn’t open up until players like Cespedes and Upton are off the market, so his options right now aren’t clear. 

Yet even trying to sort things out, what teams can pay that much for a first baseman? The St. Louis Cardinals can use the offense, but general manager John Mozeliak already told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that his team’s interest is “overblown.”

These things can—and do—change in a hurry, but Baltimore has to be considered the favorite by virtue of being the only club that has shown any significant interest thus far. 

Prediction: Davis re-signs with Baltimore for five years, $115 million.

 

Giants Searching for OF Help

With the new year approaching, the San Francisco Giants are planning to make some tweaks to ensure they keep their streak of championships in even years alive. 

According to Morosi on Twitter, the Giants have spoken to “several outfielders,” but the team has a preference of Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward or Dexter Fowler over Cespedes and Upton “due to defense.”

Gordon and Fowler make sense for the Giants because they need a left fielder. Fowler has played center field throughout his career, but FanGraphs‘ defensive metrics have him rated as the least valuable player at the position and his minus-57 defensive runs saved is better than only Matt Kemp since 2009. 

Moving Fowler to left field at AT&T Park, which has a massive outfield, will help hide his deficiencies with the glove. 

Gordon is a tremendous defender in left field, with positive defensive runs saved totals every year since 2010, and knows how to handle a big outfield coming from Kauffman Stadium. 

Gordon has been the superior offensive player since 2010, posting nearly 38 more points of offensive value by FanGraphs metrics, but Fowler does have a slightly higher on-base percentage (.364 to .355). 

It helps Fowler’s negotiating power that he’s two years younger than Gordon, who is also coming off a season in which he played just 104 games due to a groin injury

Since Morosi noted the Giants were looking at outfielders for their defense, Gordon seems like a better option for the team. If they want to take on a younger player more likely to maintain value over the course of a deal, Fowler is the option. 

Prediction: Giants sign Gordon for four years, $72 million.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


What It’s Like Dealing with Superstars and GMs as an MLB Power Agent

Ever wonder what goes on behind the closed doors of a salary negotiation for a top-flight free agent? What about how players evaluate potential suitors?

Alan Nero has been an agent for as long as baseball players have had agents—some 30 years. He is the chairman of Octagon’s baseball department, which is the No. 1 agency in global baseball placement. Nero’s department places players in leagues around the world in addition to representing some of baseball’s biggest names stateside—including Felix Hernandez, Jose Bautista and Jose Altuve.

His free agents this offseason include middle infielder Ben Zobrist, pitcher Yovani Gallardo and Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park—who is expected to sign with a major league club this winter. 

Nero explained how the agency business works, in his own words, edited slightly for clarity and brevity. 


It’s all about relationships. 

You get to a certain point where the money is going to be the same with the highest bidders, or the second bidder is going to be willing to step. So oftentimes, I’m advising clients on aspects other than money, including the quality of family life and where they may be best suited to chase a World Series.

There are certain situations where I devote myself entirely to that process for one player, like in Randy Johnson’s situation, when he was the No. 1 free agent in the market after the 1998 season.

A colleague and I moved into his guesthouse for about three weeks and we met every day after his kids went off to school.

Each day we would focus on a different team, spending the entire day on that one suitor. Because we have so many clients, we would make sure to get him on the phone with our clients on those teams.

We would get the wives on the phone to talk about the family situation. So it comes down to money, but then it comes down to wanting to win. So you want to go to a team that’s going to win and you want it to logistically make sense.

We wanted to make sure it was the right decision. He was going to be the highest-paid pitcher in the game at the time, and he had a family—four kids—which prioritized where they were going to be and how his family was going to be treated.

We ended up narrowing it down to five teams—the Yankees, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Angels and Astros (because they had traded for Randy at the trade deadline the previous season)—and said if you want to come and have an interview with Randy, then you have to be at his house on Thursday at 3.

They all came to him.

Having [former Yankees owner] George Steinbrenner in a limousine outside the house waiting for his turn was quite the statement. In the end, though, Jerry Colangelo [then the Diamondbacks owner] convinced us that Randy staying home in Arizona was the right thing.

He was committed to winning, and he was going to do all the things he said he was going to do to win. Sure enough, three years later they won the World Series.

Years ago, at the trade deadline, the Mets wanted to trade for Juan Gonzalez, who was playing for the Texas Rangers. He failed a physical. The trade didn’t go through.

The Rangers publicly denied that his injury was valid, and they basically said he knowingly sabotaged the trade. It made Juan look very, very bad. So it was very upsetting.

I got on a plane and flew to Texas. When I got there, the Rangers were being very nice and sent someone to pick me up and drive me to the stadium.

He was an intern named Jon Daniels. He is now the president of baseball operations for the Rangers. I’ve known him for 15 years and we have a very good, trusting relationship to this day.

It’s all about trust. I got a call once from an agent, whose name will remain non-disclosed. Because of our international contacts, we sometimes work with agents in placing players in other leagues.

He said: “Alan, can we talk? I think we really need to talk.”

I said: “Sure, what’s going on?”

He said: “No disrespect, but I think you have a problem.”

I said: “What’s that?”

He said: “You tell the truth.”

I said: “Excuse me?”

He said: “You tell the truth.”

I said: “Yeah…”

He said: “Well, for example, we both have free agents at the same position and I’m out there telling them I’ve got offers for X amount of dollars and you’re out there telling the truth and I’m trying to bid it up and you can’t tell the truth in this business.”

I said: “Do you really think they believe you? Because if you don’t tell the truth once, they’ll never believe you again. And everybody knows you’re a liar. So why wouldn’t you tell the truth?”

He said: “Because you can’t in this business.”

I said: “Well I’ll stick with my motto. You stick with yours.”

If you’re honest and have integrity all the time, it goes a long way. It has helped throughout my career, beginning with the first deal I ever did.

I came from the insurance side, and the life-insurance business evolved into the financial-services business. Growing up in New England, I ended up getting some athletes. As a Northwestern Mutual agent (a Milwaukee company), while I was at a conference in Milwaukee, I successfully cold-called the Brewers and Bud Selig (who at the time was the owner of the Chevy dealership there). 

Though I was only an insurance agent, I was able to get the Milwaukee Brewers and Bud Selig as a client. This background ultimately proved to be the primary catalyst to becoming a success in the sports-agent world.

Around that time, the union galvanized the players. They went on strike and fought for, primarily, free agency.

Marvin Miller ran the MLB Players’ Union at the time and was a genius. Not only did he gain free agency for the players, but he also gave them the rights to salary arbitration. He also did something that seemed to be completely harmless at the time—empowering the players to have agents.

I wasn’t a sports agent at the time, still focusing on insurance. But slowly, the players I worked with began asking me to represent them in contract negotiations.

Red Sox first baseman Cecil Cooper came to me and asked me to be his agent. He told me that he really trusted me, and I finally agreed.

As fate would have it, a year-and-a-half later, Cecil was traded to the Brewers. I negotiated Cecil’s new contract, and it was the first I ever did. It was a surreal feeling, but soon after my phone starting ringing.

It was Bud Selig.

He said: “I think we have a problem.”

I said: “What’s that?”

He said: “Don’t you think we have a conflict of interest?”

I said: “Well, I think conflicts of interest come from nondisclosure. We knew each other. We knew what everybody’s position was.”

He said: “Well, I think it would be best if you made a decision. You can’t be my agent and Cecil’s agent.”

I made the tough decision to resign as the insurance agent for the Brewers and Selig. Cooper became my first client, and that’s how I started in the sports-agency business.

My wife and I decided to move to Chicago because it was a big sports town, and every time I would fly somewhere, I would stop in Chicago anyway.

Over the years, I’ve developed great relationships with all the general managers because I’ve known them for so long.

The most interesting one was with [now-MLB analyst] Jim Bowden. Jim was the GM for the Reds, then later for the Nationals. He had the kind of personality where, in the middle of negotiations, he would just tip over the table and basically throw you out to the point where it was hilarious.

In one particular negotiation, he did just that. He pushed back from his chair and told me to leave. Then he decided to run out of the room, and I instinctively jumped up and blocked the door, wouldn’t let him leave, got him to calm down and we ended up getting the deal done.

He was probably the most flamboyant, unpredictable GM I ever worked with. But we had a great relationship, and it’s guys like Jim who keep the job exciting. Those same qualities are why I love him on radio and TV.

Many times, you come to a verbal agreement, but suddenly the circumstances change and people without character renege on deals. There are a lot of honorable people in this business, but if you shatter the faith in your word, it’s hard to come back from that.

I’ve done deals with Jerry Reinsdorf, the owner of the White Sox. We agreed to a deal, but circumstances dramatically changed and negatively impacted his franchise. Many people would use this as an escape route and tear down the agreement, but Jerry’s word is gold. Even though the deal hadn’t been formally inked, Jerry would live by his word.

I’m surrounded by tremendous people. We’ve got a research team that gives us all the information we need to be prepared to go into the negotiations—a crucial element in today’s analytical landscape.

When we first started out years and years ago, the owners had all the information and the players and agents had none of it, which created a clear leverage gap and an uneven playing field.

Now, because of the strength of the union, we also have a database and a website that we all have access to. This newfound transparency and preparedness, in my opinion, is what has brought about the labor peace that we’ve had for so long.

At the winter meetings and the GM meetings, we’ll go through a discovery process of who is interested in which free agents. But it’s not like it used to be, where it was a necessity.

The GM meetings and the winter meetings are just a really good way for people to gravitate together, but most of the deals don’t get done there. They’ll get done by phone or by email.

The agency business has evolved tremendously. Of course technology has been a catalyst for much of that.

But at its core, success is still dictated by the same core principles—honesty, transparency and a willingness to forge relationships. 

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MLB Winter Meetings 2015 Day 1: Analyzing Impact of All the Latest Deals, Rumors

A flood of trades, signings and speculation headlined Day 1 of the 2015 MLB winter meetings, but for now, Aroldis Chapman remains a member of the Cincinnati Reds.

According to Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, a proposed trade between the Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers was “held up” following a report that Chapman was allegedly involved in a domestic incident in October.

While the baseball world waits for the latest on the Chapman front, here’s a review of all the biggest deals and most significant rumors from Day 1 in Nashville, Tennessee. Among the discussion points: One of the game’s most electric young starting pitchers was again the subject of trade chatter, and the finish line in the race for Ben Zobrist is finally within sight.

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Alex Gordon: Latest News, Rumors and Speculation Surrounding Free-Agent of

The Detroit Tigers are officially out of the Alex Gordon sweepstakes, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Continue for updates.


Gordon Could Land Huge Contract

Monday, Dec. 7

Nightengale reported the 31-year-old, four-time Gold Glove winner is out of talks with Tigers GM Al Avila. He could have been a good fit in Motown considering Detroit has no proven left fielder for the time being.

Gordon, who stands to make $100 million on his next contract, per Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports, declined a player option to remain with the World Series champions Kansas City Royals.

Of course, he could still sign with the Royals, but for much more money after opting out.

Gordon slashed .271/.377/.432 with 13 home runs and 48 RBI in 104 games during the 2015 season. However, he is known more as a team leader and exceptional outfielder than gaudy statstics.

While there are plenty of possible suitors, Nightengale reported the Royals feel like their rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, are currently their biggest competitors for the three-time All-Star. 

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How the Yankees Can Come out of the Winter Meetings as Surprise Winners

For years, the New York Yankees won the winter the traditional way.

They bought it.

The Yankees are different now, and if you didn’t believe it when they wouldn’t enter the bidding for David Price or Zack Greinke, perhaps you will when you hear (per Joel Sherman of the New York Post) that they never bid on Jeff Samardzija, either. Maybe they’re saving all their money to sign Jason Heyward—but don’t count on it.

No, if the Yankees are going to come out of this week as winter-meetings winners, they’re going to do it the hard way. They’re going to need to be more persistent and more creative.

They’re going to need to convince the Cleveland Indians that they really should trade Carlos Carrasco in some form of deal for Brett Gardner, oreven bettertalk Oakland A’s boss Billy Beane out of his pledge not to deal Sonny Gray.

“Sooner or later, he trades everybody,” said one rival executive.

The Toronto Blue Jays got an MVP third baseman because Alex Anthopoulos kept asking and eventually gave Beane what he wanted. Could the Yankees get a potential Cy Young winner if Brian Cashman keeps asking? And if not Gray, what about Jose Fernandez of the Miami Marlins?

Gray or Fernandez would make any team a winter-meetings winner, but what if it really is true that neither will be available this week? What if Cashman decides Shelby Miller isn’t enough of a sure thing to trade his most prized prospects?

Enough of the questions. You came here for answers.

The Yankees didn’t seem to like our last bit of advice, which was to take advantage of the unusually pitching-heavy top of the free-agent market. So this time, we’ll try to keep things a little cheaper.

After all, talk is cheap, right? The suggestion here is for Cashman to do plenty of talking.

Talk to the A’s about Gray, and even if Beane is serious about not moving him now, lay the groundwork for whenever he eventually does move him. Do the same with the Marlins about Fernandez.

Revive the efforts to deal Gardner. Cashman told George A. King III of the Post that it’s now more likely he keeps Gardner and closer Andrew Miller, perhaps because there’s more of a glut on the outfield and reliever markets than there was a month ago. But Gardner’s defensive skills and his ability to play center field should still make him valuable, particularly if the Yankees pay down some of the $38 million remaining on his contract.

The Indians are a natural fit, because they have pitchers the Yankees could use (Carrasco or Danny Salazar) and because with Michael Brantley hurt, they could use an outfielder. But as Nick Cafardo pointed out in Sunday’s Boston Globe, the Los Angeles Angels could really use a left-handed hitting outfielder. New Angels general manager Billy Eppler was Cashman‘s assistant in New York (and seems to love players who excel on defense).

The Yankees could also trade Ivan Nova, especially if they acquire a starting pitcher elsewhere. They could still trade Miller, perhaps to the Houston Astros since they have reportedly lost out on Aroldis Chapman (the Yankees and Astros have talked, according to league sources).

If he does trade Miller—and even if he doesn’t—Cashman will need to add relief pitchers. The Yankees went heavy on bullpen arms last winter, trading for Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve, but by the end of the season, manager Joe Girardi barely seemed to trust anyone but Miller and Dellin Betances.

Adding bullpen help doesn’t even need to be expensive. The Kansas City Royals signed Ryan Madson to a minor league contract last winter, and he pitched so well that he just agreed to a $22 million deal with the A’s (according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com).

You might have noticed that every suggestion so far has involved pitching. The Yankees do have one open spot in their lineup, at second base. They might be able to reacquire Martin Prado, whom they dealt to the Marlins last winter for Nathan Eovaldi, or sign free agent Howie Kendrick, who has a .342 career batting average against them.

A recent report by Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi also links the Yankees to former All-Star Asdrubal Cabrera, though he cites budget concerns as a potential roadblock.

That probably wouldn’t be enough to make the Yankees a winter meetings winner, though. Maybe none of this would be enoughunless the Yankees could somehow come away with Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez.

Keep talking.

 

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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MLB’s Free-Agent Pitcher Market Cost Has Exploded Far Beyond Its Worth

The 2015 MLB free-agent pitching class is rich. As in, loaded with talent.

Now, it’s rich in another way. As in, drowning in dollars.

Consider this: Four starting pitchers have been signed for a combined $623.5 million. For perspective, that’s only slightly less than the gross domestic product of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, which is indeed a country and not an ’80s hair band.

Anyway, the point is, these deals are massive, gargantuan, mind-boggling. Grab your thesaurus and keep going.

It began with Jordan Zimmermann’s five-year, $110 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. That turned out to be a mere appetizer for the feast that followed, as David Price broke Clayton Kershaw’s MLB-record pitcher’s payday by signing a seven-year, $217 million pact with the Boston Red Sox.

That record stood for less than a week before Kershaw’s now-ex-teammate, Zack Greinke, shattered it with his six-year, $206.5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Then, for a kicker, Jeff Samardzija inked a five-year, $90 million deal with the San Francisco Giants, never mind the fact that he led both leagues in hits and earned runs allowed.

There’s more coming down the pike. The rest of this class is about to get richer, including Johnny Cueto, who reportedly rejected a $120 million offer from the D-Backs and is “in no hurry” to sign, as his agent, Bryce Dixon, told ESPNdeportes.com’s Enrique Rojas

Cueto is arguably the biggest fish left in the pool, but the likes of Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen and Japanese ace Kenta Maeda will be waiting to bite off sizable chunks of their own.

In November, super-agent Scott Boras suggested Chen—a 30-year-old who’s never eclipsed 200 innings and has struck out seven hitters per nine innings in his big league career—deserves “well north” of $20 million per year, according to Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi

Chen probably won’t get it. But Boras wasn’t laughed out of the negotiating room or the Twittersphere, either. 

Let’s just pause here to say: This is getting out of hand. When the last ink of the offseason is dry, the top free-agent starters—the aces and potential No. 2s and 3swill have hauled in somewhere in the neighborhood of a billion dollars.

It’s almost crazy to ask if they’re worth it, because worth is such a relative term. Certainly guys like Price and Greinke will change their teams’ fortunes in the short term, and paying down the road for production now is the model in today’s game. If you don’t like it, you’d better draft and develop cost-controlled talent.

Still, recent history has brought an explosion of nine-figure megacontracts for pitchers (and position players, too, but that’s a discussion for another day). And not all of them have worked out.

If you want to go way back, you can circle the seven-year, $126 million contract the San Francisco Giants handed Barry Zito prior to the 2007 season. The Giants, of course, won a pair of rings with Zito on the roster, and he had his shining moments, but overall, it was a classic example of paying a guy based on track record over potential.

More recently, the New York Yankees extended CC Sabathia for five years and $122 million with an option for a sixth year and have watched the large left-hander succumb to injuries and personal demons.  

Or there’s the six-year, $127.5 million contract the Giants handed Matt Cain, who has also fallen victim to injuries and diminished performance and enters 2016 as a significant question mark.

We could go on, but you get the idea. Long-term, expensive contracts for pitchers are high-risk endeavors. They can backfire explosively with long-reverberating payroll implications, yet they’re becoming increasingly common.

Overall, 19 pitchers (and counting) have signed contracts worth $100 million or more, per Baseball Prospectus. Of those, more than half were signed in the last three seasons. And only one dates back further than Zito—the disastrous $121 million pact Mike Hampton signed with the Colorado Rockies.

(Sorry, Rockies fans. We’ll give you a minute.)

OK, let’s add a dollop of perspective, via USA Today‘s Ted Berg:

All [massive contracts] correspond with boon times for the baseball economy, as payrolls and contracts skyrocket thanks to massive influxes of TV money in markets large and small. So it’s important to note — obviously — that a $105-million deal for Homer Bailey in 2014 is a heck of a lot different than the $105-million deal Kevin Brown signed with the Dodgers before the 1999 season. Guys just get paid more now, so Bailey’s salary represents a smaller portion of his team’s payroll and less risk than it would have a decade ago.

He’s absolutely right. The dollar figures leap off the screen, but you have to put them in the context of today’s MLB economy. 

Still, in the case of Greinke and Price, you’re paying two pitchers in excess of $30 million a season. Assuming they stay healthy, that’s roughly $1 million per start. 

They might be worth it next year. They’re the Cy Young Award runners-up in each league, coming off brilliant seasons and still on the outskirts of their prime.

Over the life of the deals, though, expect regression. Father Time bats 1.000, after all, and Greinke will be 37 when his Diamondbacks deal expires.

Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post did a nice job breaking down Greinke‘s value based on the assumption that a win above replacement is worth $8 million, and he found that only under the most historically optimistic scenario will the right-hander earn his $200 million and change. 

Price, meanwhile, got his bucks from a Boston front office that has expressed an aversion to locking up pitchers on the wrong side of 30, as Jimmy Golen of the Associated Press noted, via the Washington Post.

“There are exceptions to any rule, and certainly this is one of the most exceptional pitchers,” Red Sox owner John Henry said, per Golen. “He’s putting up historical numbers, or at least bordering on that, at this stage of his career.”

Price can opt out of his contract after three seasons. He’ll be 33 years old and have more than $120 million left on the table at that point. Would he actually walk away? If he pitches well enough and the dollars keep trending upward across MLB, why not?

That’s how it goes. One payday begets the next. Yesterday’s headline-grabbing megadeal is tomorrow’s ho-hum market rate. 

Still, some of these contracts are going to be albatrosses for the clubs that invite them and complaint fodder for disillusioned fans sipping $15 beers.

We won’t know which ones without the benefit of hindsight. Overall, though, we can say this year’s free-agent pitching class has stretched and twisted the notion of “worth” beyond recognition.

The money will keep flowing for now, that much is obvious. But like a kid who shovels down too much rich chocolate cake, someone’s going to end up with a tummy ache.

 

All statistics and contract information current as of Dec. 7 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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