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Concocting trades is fun, but it isn’t easy, even from the outside looking in. There are any number of challenging factors that need to be weighed—from talent and finances to timing and need—in order to come up with a swap, especially one that actually makes some sense for both sides.

Sometimes, though, two teams seem destined to make a move given all of the above elements being just right. That doesn’t mean it actually will happen, but the basic idea appears to be realistic and reasonable. At least, in theory.

Like the possibility that the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, a pair of squads finally on the upswing after half a decade in the dumps, could match up for a major maneuver.

“We haven’t made a deal yet, but there’s been matches that made sense, and I’m sure we’ll talk to them in the future,” Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said recently about the potential for a transaction, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “When you factor in the hitting [the Cubs have] and the pitching [the Mets have], I guess people think it’s unusual [the two teams haven’t consummated a trade].

“But it’ll happen at some point.”

Hey, if one of the GMs is giving the go-ahead, there’s no reason not to put together a little ditty that is—that’s right—realistic, reasonable and beneficial for all parties.

What would be the perfect blockbuster trade between the Cubs and Mets?

Let’s start this endeavor by pointing out each club’s needs. For Chicago, it’s primarily pitching, both in the bullpen and, especially, the rotation after Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel. Beyond that, the Cubs could perhaps use a catcher for the long term after soon-to-be 32-year-old Miguel Montero’s contract is up following the 2017 season (because 2014 first-rounder Kyle Schwarber’s defense likely isn’t enough to stick behind the plate), and possibly an outfielder, considering Dexter Fowler is in his walk year and Chris Coghlan is nobody’s idea of an answer.

New York, on the other hand, has a major need at shortstop, where it’s become clear that Wilmer Flores can’t cut it in that role every day in the majors. It also wouldn’t hurt to have some more infield depth for aging, injury-prone third baseman David Wright and free-agent-to-be Daniel Murphy at second, in case Dilson Herrera needs some adjustment time going forward. Plus, an impact outfield bat would bring a boost, too.

Given that outfield is a target for both sides, let’s leave that out of the mix for fear of complicating matters too much.

But there’s plenty to work with to get the Cubs some arms for a staff that sports a 4.05 club ERA through Monday and a backstop, while also finding infield and offense for the Mets, who rank in the bottom five in team OPS at .663 entering Tuesday.

That’s because, as Hoyer alluded to, each team has strength, talent and depth in the other’s area of need.

The Mets possess more pitchers than they can fit into a rotation, what with ace Matt Harvey, reigning Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom, veterans Bartolo Colon, Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee and top prospect Noah Syndergaard, as well as youngsters Steven Matz, Rafael Montero and eventually Zack Wheeler once he’s back from Tommy John surgery.

GM Sandy Alderson also has two quality catchers at his disposal in rookie Kevin Plawecki and injury-prone but former top prospect Travis d’Arnaud.

The Cubs, meanwhile, have all kinds of infielders, from shortstop Starlin Castro to elite rookies Kris Bryant at third base and Addison Russell, a natural shortstop playing second base. There’s also Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara, both of whom have lost some of their luster due to early struggles in the majors despite being very highly regarded prospects at this time just last year.

Much like the Mets’ pitchers, the Cubs don’t have enough space to easily squeeze in all of those players without making some changes at some point (i.e., Bryant to left field).

There’s supply on one side and demand on the other, which is pretty rare, whether you’re talking economics or baseball.

Since we’re being reasonable and realistic about this theoretical, mutually beneficial blockbuster, it’s fair to say that the Cubs won’t be parting with Bryant or Russell, while the Mets are going to hang on to Harvey and Syndergaard.

On the flip side, Chicago won’t have much interest in the likes of Colon, Niese or Gee, who lack upside and aren’t great values due to their cost, as well as Wheeler or d’Arnaud, who currently are out with injury.

Everything considered, here is a proposal that would have to make both the Cubs and the Mets think hard:

Cubs get: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Rafael Montero and C Kevin Plawecki

Mets get: SS Starlin Castro, INF/OF Arismendy Alcantara and 1B Dan Vogelbach

Here’s why it just might make sense…

DeGrom would give Chicago a very strong starter to go with Lester, Arrieta and Hammel. He flew under the radar as a prospect before becoming a revelation and ROY last year, but he’s also about to turn 27 in June and is more of a No. 3 in a rotation long-term than a front-end guy, which is fine for the Cubs.

The Mets would be able to replace deGrom in short order with Matz, who is about to turn 24 and is tearing up Triple-A.

Chicago also lands Montero, who, at only 24 years old, has experience pitching out of the five-man and the bullpen, so he’s another quality arm that would help the Cubs in some capacity. Of course, they would want to make sure his medicals check out, considering he’s been out since late April with shoulder tightness.

And Plawecki would become the Cubs’ catcher of the future, although for now he would fit best back at Triple-A, because the 24-year-old has only 52 games at that level after being forced to Flushing following d’Arnaud’s injury. Besides, even after the reported trade of Welington Castillo to the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Chicago is carrying two catchers as is in Montero and David Ross.

New York would be relying more heavily on d’Arnaud, who has had serious trouble staying healthy, but he looks like the more polished all-around backstop.

As for the Mets, they would pick up their sorely needed shortstop in Castro, who isn’t an great player but has been a good one for years and just turned 25 in late March. More than anything else, New York needs a capable, proven player at short, and Castro is that—and he might even have a little upside left if he’s pushed.

This would allow the Cubs to shift Russell back to short, his natural position, and it would eventually open up second base for Baez, who would be a good defender there and would still offer power potential at the plate.

Alcantara brings a ton of defensive versatility and at least some offensive promise in the form of pop and speed from both sides of the plate, all at the age of 23. Having played second and third base as well as center field in the majors, Alcantara could help the Mets cover a lot of ills and/or injuries, and if he improves overall, he could become a starter-caliber player at any of those positions down the line.

Vogelbach is the last piece, and he’s a fun one. The 22-year-old former second-rounder has a bad body and is confined to first base only (if that), but he has a ton of promise as a hitter, what with a .333/.452/.532 line and nearly as many walks as whiffs so far in his first shot at Double-A. Plus, the lefty slugger has no future in Chicago with Anthony Rizzo around.

Aside from purely the players’ talents and skill sets, there are two outside considerations that go into this trade. The first is that Castro is easily the most expensive, although his contract actually is rather team-friendly at $37 million from 2016 through 2019, after which the team has a $16 million option or a $1 million buyout. Even the Mets should be able to afford that.

The other factor? Position players inherently hold more value than pitchers simply because they play every game and come with less risk of injury. So if you feel like giving up deGrom is steep, well, don’t forget he already has had Tommy John surgery.

The way this deal breaks down is with deGrom and Castro as the headliners, each of whom has established himself in the majors and proved to various extents he can succeed at an All-Star-caliber level. Montero and Alcantara are both former prospects who have lost a little luster since breaking into the bigs in 2014, but each fills a hole for their new team. And Plawecki and Vogelbach are two pieces that are useful for different reasons, with the former drawing value from his position and the latter from his bat.

Is this the perfect trade? C’mon, there’s no such thing. But is it a deal that covers needs, matches up talent and leaves both sides feeling like they gave up something to get something? That’s a realistic outcome—and maybe even a reasonable one, to boot.

Were this offer actually on the table, would either side go for it? Would both? Or if one were to express apprehension and back away, would it be the Cubs or the Mets?

After all, coming up with trades is one thing. Getting them to come to fruition, well, that’s another thing altogether.

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The 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers have played fewer than 15 games, but it’s never too early to look ahead toward the trade deadline.

President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and General Manager Farhan Zaidi were not shy about tinkering with the roster during the offseason. So it would not be surprising to see midseason deals unfold as the schedule progresses.

While the team currently appears to be set at most positions, there are a few players who might represent intriguing trade chips come July or sooner.

Zach Lee

Zach Lee entered last season as the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, but his stock tumbled due to struggles at Triple-A.

He began 2015 ranked No. 6, behind pitchers Julio Urias and Grant Holmes, according to the team’s website.

Lee’s name has been tossed around the organization ever since Los Angeles pried him away from Louisiana State University with a record signing bonus after the team drafted him 28th overall in 2010.

Despite the lucrative signing bonus, Lee has failed to make a significant impression during his first four years in the minors (32-35 combined record with an ERA hovering around 4).

The Dodgers are now understandably more excited about Urias, a recent Texas League Player of the Week, and Holmes, their first-round pick in last year’s draft.

Lee, who projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, is off to a 2-0 start at Triple-A this season. He has struck out 13 in 12 innings while walking just two—a past bugaboo.

If Lee can continue to maintain these kinds of ratios, he would certainly be a candidate to include in a future trade. Teams usually want prospects at the trade deadline, and there doesn’t seem to be a spot for Lee at the major-league level.

The emergence of Urias and Holmes will potentially make it easier for the team to part ways with Lee.

Andre Ethier

For the second straight season, veteran outfielder Andre Ethier and his $18 million salary will spend most nights watching the action from the bench.

Rookie Joc Pederson beat out Ethier, 33, for the starting center field job. When healthy, Yasiel Puig is firmly entrenched in right field, while Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke are the two primary options in left field.

Nick Cafardo recently gave his thoughts on the situation in an update for The Boston Globe:

Not sure how a $16 million-a-year player can be sitting on the bench for the first three games of the season, but that’s what happened to Ethier. The Dodgers are all ears about a deal, offering help on the remaining $57 million of Ethier’s contract, but no bites. And it’s always tough to deal a guy who isn’t playing regularly.

It’s true. The Dodgers offered to eat half of Ethier’s bloated paycheck in an effort to move the career .285 hitter, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

Although Ethier has received more playing time than usual in the early going as Puig nurses a hamstring injury, he still remains a fringe contributor in Los Angeles. His .259 average in 11 games does not inspire much confidence, but it at least showcases his abilities as an everyday player to potential suitors.

The Dodgers almost sent Ethier to the Arizona Diamondbacks over the winter, but the deal fell through at the last minute, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Ethier is in the third season of a five-year, $85-million contract extension.

Alex Guerrero

Another member of the team seeking more playing time is Alex Guerrero.

The Dodgers signed the Cuban defector to a four-year, $28-million contract following the 2013 season. He spent most of last season in the minor leagues, and was limited to fewer than 350 total at-bats—in large part because of a dugout fight in which teammate Miguel Olivo bit off his ear. He finished the season batting .329 with 15 home runs at Triple-A.

Entering 2015 without a position, Guerrero made the Opening Day roster as a backup third baseman. A stipulation in his contract allowed him to refuse another demotion to the minors, and so far Guerrero has justified his presence on the roster. He is 5-for-14 with two home runs and eight RBI on the young season.

The Dodgers’ starting third baseman is Juan Uribe, however, who is finishing the final year of his contract. The veteran led all National League third basemen with at least 850 innings in defensive runs saved last season and Los Angeles values his leadership as well. Guerrero is still learning how to play the position, and has been relegated to pinch-hitting duties when Uribe is healthy.

What’s more, the Dodgers recently won the bidding war for fellow Cuban defector Hector Olivera, signing him to a six-year, $62.5-million contract, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Olivera appears to be the heir apparent at the hot corner.

With backup infielder Justin Turner also in the picture, Guerrero may be expendable. Much like Ethier, the Dodgers could focus on showcasing Guerrero’s talents in an attempt to boost his trade value.

The potential is clearly there, but the playing time is not. If manager Don Mattingly sprinkles in more starting opportunities for Guerrero, the 28-year-old might accumulate the stats necessary to warrant league-wide attention in advance of the trade deadline.

“The team does not know what they are going to do, but all I can control is keep working hard and they will get the final word,” Guerrero said, per Sanchez.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise linked/noted.

Follow @NickOstiller

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With each passing day, baseball’s rumor mill begins to gain a bit more speed. Opening Day looms large on the horizon, and with its steady approach, teams are beginning to look at potential deals involving players that are out of minor league options.

Being out of options doesn’t automatically put a player on the trade block, mind you. But having too many out-of-options players on a roster can limit a team’s flexibility as needs arise during the regular season.

In most cases, teams peddling such talent are at a disadvantage in trade talks. Other general managers know that in a week or so, they’ll have a chance to claim said player off the waiver wire. But a chance doesn’t guarantee that they’d be able to get a player they’ve got their eyes on, so trades are discussed.

Of course, that doesn’t apply to every player that’s out of minor league options, as we’ll examine on the pages that follow. Keep in mind that these deals are pure speculation—there’s no indication that any of them have actually been discussed.

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Cliff Lee‘s left elbow made it through just one spring training start—and all of two innings—last Thursday before he was shut down the following day with another bout of elbow discomfort in the same spot that plagued him for much of 2014.

The 13-year veteran went for an MRI on Sunday that revealed some inflammation, and while it’s too early to tell yet, Lee did acknowledge that surgery is at least a possibility. If that’s how this plays out, then Lee’s 2015 season will be over before it even begins—and there’s a chance his baseball career could be finished too.

“It would be 6-8 months out,” Lee said, via Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “So basically if I have the surgery this season will be done. Possibly my career I guess. I don’t know. We’ll have to see.”

And just like that, all the pressure is back on general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and the rest of the Philadelphia Phillies front office to do right by a rebuilding organization and make the most out of the club’s final big trade chip, Cole Hamels.

Were it only about his success, experience and postseason history, Lee would make for an enticing option for the Phillies to peddle to clubs eying a proven starter—provided, of course, they made the $37.5 million Lee is owed more palatable.

But combined with that amount of money, this latest run-in with elbow discomfort or soreness makes Lee absolutely immovable.

As Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News writes:

The Phillies (and Lee) obviously hoped to see the pitcher progress this spring without any issues. Had Lee stayed healthy, he could have been a nice trade chip for Amaro and Co. … and Lee himself could have potentially joined another team prior to the July trade deadline as he pursues an elusive World Series ring.

That is out the window at this point. If Lee weren’t considered damaged goods after making just 13 starts in 2014—none after July 31—due to elbow problems, well, he definitely is now.

Even if Lee were to be OK enough to pitch in the first half of the season, there’s just not going to be much interest in or market for a 36-year-old left-hander with a contract that is cumbersome (and then some) and, more importantly, an elbow that is unwilling to cooperate.

Which brings us back to Hamels, who now more than ever is Amaro’s last chance to turn the aging, injury-prone core of what was a top-notch team for several years into a batch of young, cost-controlled talent to help with a long-overdue rebuilding project that has just begun.

A 31-year-old southpaw, Hamels has been at the center of trade rumors dating back to last July and continuing all throughout this past offseason, as Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com notes.

While Amaro did manage to bring in some prospects, like Tom Windle, Zach Eflin and Ben Lively, by swapping longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins and in-his-final-act outfielder Marlon Byrd, Hamels remains the lone piece that could net a return of real, franchise-altering value.

Nobody is knocking down Amaro’s door to ask about closer Jonathan Papelbon, and nobody is even picking up the phone to inquire about first baseman Ryan Howard.

The reports all along have been that Amaro has refused to budge on his terms involving Hamels, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. That means the GM won’t trade him unless the acquiring club sends an elite package of prospects and picks up most, if not all, of the $96 million Hamels is due through 2018.

“Cole Hamels is a known entity,” Amaro told Stark. “A known winner. A known World Series MVP. A known top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. If Cole Hamels continues to be Cole Hamels, which we fully expect him to be, why would [his trade value] decline?”

Funny, but a similar sentiment might have been uttered about Lee this time last year.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Hamels has a $20 million option for 2019 that he might want picked up if dealt, especially to one of the teams on his limited no-trade clause.

The good news here is that Hamels has yet to show any sort of decline or injury concern, meaning his value on the trade front remains relatively high. He is, after all, coming off a career-best 2.46 ERA last year.

That’s a big reason why Amaro needs to get it right when it comes to trading Hamels, which feels like an inevitability by now, whether it happens in the month between now and the start of the regular season or by the trade deadline at the end of July.

It’s also a big reason why Amaro should be willing to bend, if only a little bit, in his demands with regard to a return for Hamels. If nothing else, Lee—who had a 2.80 ERA while making at least 30 starts in each of his first three seasons since re-signing with Philadelphia—is an unmistakable example of how fast a pitcher’s career can be derailed.

Here’s Amaro’s bottom line: More than ever, he needs to get it right when trading Hamels, but in light of Lee’s latest ailment, the leverage is going in the wrong direction.

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Soon the exhibitions will cease.

Soon the games will matter. 

Soon you won’t have to read another article (like this one) about why or why not your team won’t compete in 2015. 

Soon we will have baseball: real, meaningful, beautiful baseball. 

But we’re not there yet. And as much as we would all like to be, we still have a little under a month to wait for Opening Day. 

So yes, this article is speculative in nature. It’s all we can do at this point in the offseason. But much can change over the next few weeks, including the homes of a handful of players capable of changing the fortunes of prospective MLB squads. 

Names like Dillon Gee, Andre Ethier and Alex Guerrero could very well be moved in the coming days to needy organizations hoping to fill crucial holes before the season begins. But where might these players end up?

Read on to find out!

Begin Slideshow

It seems only a matter of time before the Philadelphia Phillies trade Cole Hamels. As the ace starting pitcher took the mound for the first time this spring, the rumors continued to swirl. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald tweeted about the most recent buzz surrounding Hamels.

With Yu Darvish now out of action for an extended period, it would make sense for the Texas Rangers to crank up their interest in Hamels. The Rangers are built to win now, and not having Darvish creates a huge hole in the front of the team’s rotation.

Hamels would have been perhaps the piece that could push the Rangers to the top of the American League West if he had joined Darvish. Adding him now might be necessary to keep Texas competitive in what could be the major league’s toughest division.

Texas Not Interested in Dillon Gee?

The New York Mets appear to be dangling Dillon Gee for interested teams, but according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, don’t count the Rangers among the interested teams.

Gee was 7-8 in 2014 with a 4.00 ERA. He’s a solid middle-to-end-of-the-rotation guy but clearly not the type of pitcher who projects as a major difference-maker in the rotation. If the rumors from Heyman and Silverman are accurate, the Rangers are only interested in acquiring an ace.

If Gee is going to be moved, it’s more likely going to be to a team who is looking to add depth to the back end of its rotation.

Padres, Braves and Dodgers Favorites to Land Hector Oliveira

According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, Cuban infield prospect Hector Oliveira is on the radar of several teams, but the 26-year-old second baseman is most likely to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres or Atlanta Braves.

The Padres would seemingly have the biggest immediate need at the position. The team’s current second baseman is Jedd Gyorko. While he’s a solid clubhouse guy, he doesn‘t offer the overall impact that Oliveira would. Gyorko is hit .210 with 10 home runs and 50 RBI in 2014.

There are some injury concerns with Oliveira. A blood clot cost him time while still in Cuba but since recovering and leaving his native country, scouts have been impressed with him. Badler writes:

He’s strong—heavier and stronger than the last time scouts saw him—and he’s shown well at all of his open showcases and several private workouts. Teams won’t have all the answers they want about Olivera because even he doesn’t know for certain how he will respond to having to play the field every day over a 162-game season. But the bat speed is still there, the swing is intact and he’s shown he still has a polished hitting approach with the ability to drive all types of pitches. There’s still risk, but he’s done just about all he can to show teams that the talent that excited scouts years ago is still there.

With the recent success of Cuban players like Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, there’s seemingly an increasing level of comfort with throwing large amounts of cash at young Cuban free agents. Oliveira looks to be next on the list of players from Cuba ready to get paid in the major leagues.

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“Pitchers and catchers report” may be the most magical words in sports, but there are still some trade rumors to work out before MLB spring training officially gets underway. 

The Philadelphia Phillies are prominent in many of those, but their division rivals, the New York Mets, are as well. Read on for the latest speculation surrounding these National League East teams before spring training begins.

Jonathan Papelbon

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports passed along an unfortunate update for the Phillies regarding their efforts to trade Jonathan Papelbon:

To illustrate the difficulty that the Phillies are experiencing in trying to trade Jonathan Papelbon, consider a recent turn in their discussions with the Brewers.

The Phillies only were willing to pay a significant part of Papelbon’s contract if the Brewers parted with a top prospect, according to major-league sources.

The Brewers, unwilling to make such an exchange, instead proposed sending reliever Jonathan Broxton to the Phillies as a way to balance the finances.

Given the nature of that update, it really shouldn’t come as much surprise that Rosenthal also noted any talks between the Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are currently dormant.

Papelbon may be 34 years old, but he turned in an excellent 2014 campaign for Philadelphia. He finished with an impressive 2.04 ERA and 39 saves in 66.1 innings and could certainly help a team on the fringe of contention, be it the Brewers or someone else. However, he is due to earn $13 million this season.

The Brewers were third in the MLB last season in quality starts but finished a disappointing 17th in team ERA. That is not exactly a testament to greatness from the bullpen, which is why they are likely looking to upgrade the back end with a potential trade or free-agent signing. 

It just doesn’t look like that trade will be for Papelbon.

Cole Hamels

Rosenthal also had an update on Cole Hamels in a separate piece and noted the San Diego Padres made an offer for the left-hander before ultimately signing James Shields:

The Phillies, though, are adamant about getting one blue-chip prospect in any trade for Hamels, sources say. It is not known precisely how they view the Padres’ top three prospects — righty Matt Wisler, catcher Austin Hedges and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. But a source last month said that in the Phillies’ view, the Padres might “not have enough.”

Rosenthal pointed out that the Phillies would prefer to trade Hamels to the Boston Red Sox in an effort to get a package back that includes either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart. Still, Boston hasn’t made that desired offer, and it looks like Philadelphia may have to start the season with Hamels if it doesn’t lower its demands.

Rosenthal touches on this, but keeping Hamels as potential trade bait would put the Phillies in direct competition with other teams looking to unload pitchers at the trade deadline. Whether that is the Cincinnati Reds and Johnny Cueto or someone else remains to be seen, but the Phillies would likely get less back in return if there are other pitchers out there for cheaper.

Still, Hamels finished last season with a 2.46 ERA and is only 31 years old. He is a true ace and could instantly bolster a team’s World Series chances, especially if it was a talented squad such as the Red Sox or Padres that has already made some noise this offseason. 

Interestingly, Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. commented on the Hamels rumors, via Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com: “Eight teams have kicked the tires…If there was an offer commensurate to what we believe is [Hamels’] value we would strongly consider it.” 

Apparently, that offer is yet to come.

New York Mets Pitchers 

Marc Carig of Newsday noted that the New York Mets likely won’t be trading any of their pitchers:

Carig specifically mentions Dillon Gee, which isn’t that surprising since he is 28 years old and there are plenty of young pitchers trying to make the team this season. Among those pitching prospects are Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Rafael Montero, but cracking the rotation could be difficult for any of the three.

Montero at least has major league experience, which could help his cause in terms of making the roster (at least as a bullpen option).

The bottom line is the Mets have plenty of depth in the pitching department but an offense that was 28th in batting average and 21st in runs scored in 2014. It would make sense on paper if they traded a pitcher or two for more offense, but it appears that won’t be in the works before the season. 

New York better hope for better offense this time around if that strategy is going to pay off.

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The Philadelphia Phillies continue to shop two prominent pitchers whose names will festoon the MLB rumor mill until a resolution is reached.

It’s no secret that the 2008 World Series champions are trending southward. Following a string of five consecutive National League East titles, the Phillies have not finished above .500 in the last three years, stamping 73 wins in each of the past two seasons.

Many projection models anticipate an even worse 2015 from the elderly club. Baseball Prospectus‘ PECOTA and FanGraphs each forecast Philadelphia landing MLB’s worst record. There’s no relief in sight either, as ESPN’s Keith Law gave its farm system a No. 25 overall ranking. 

Given the bleak situation, general manger Ruben Amaro Jr. must dangle the few valuable assets remaining in his arsenal. That includes ace Cole Hamels, the team’s best player, and Jonathan Papelbon, a highly regarded closer with one year left on his contract.

These two pitchers have frequented trade discussions for months, but nothing has materialized. Let’s see if the latest chatter stands any chance at changing that stagnancy.  

Cole Hamels

Other than Papelbon, Chase Utley and Cliff Lee—who made just 13 starts last season due to an ankle injury—the Phillies are running out of currency to cash out for young talent. Perhaps some fans take that as reasoning to retain the 31-year-old righty, but that would mean wasting the remnants of Hamels’ peak years on a bottom-dwelling club.

He would certainly heat up the hot stove after notching a career-low 2.46 ERA last season. As stable as they come, he has amassed over 200 innings through each of the past five seasons.

A popular talking point during the winter meetings, possible deals have largely subsided in recent weeks. Yet Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal welcomed back an old speculated suitor, even if it remains a long shot.

Pitching is rarely a problem for the San Diego Padres, who registered a 3.27 team ERA last season. They can plug a decent hurler in there and watch Petco Park morph him into an ace.

So what would an actual ace in Hamels accomplish inside the pitcher-friendly park? Last season, he twirled an 1.82 ERA outside Citizens Bank Park, but his career home/road splits don’t reflect a significant difference.

He has dominated in eight career starts at Petco, albeit against weak Padres lineups. 

San Diego has a solid rotation nucleus in Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy, but there are no certainties after that. Odrisamer Despaigne held his own but posted a 5.31 ERA away from Petco. A.J. Preller rolled the dice on Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow in hopes of receiving healthy innings from one or the other. Don’t hold your breath. 

Young arms Robbie Erlin and Matt Wisler are also waiting their turn for a permanent promotion. San Diego is hardly bereft of options, but one can see why it would consider an upgrade after making several high-impact splashes on offense.

Chances are Preller already used up too much capital to repaint his batting order, but don’t say never on a guy who landed three big-name outfielders in one offseason.

Jonathan Papelbon

On paper, trading Papelbon is a slam dunk. Last-place teams have no need for 34-year-old relief pitchers set to earn $13 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A team on the edge of contention, however, will derive more use from his services.

Two suitors have emerged in the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers. While negotiations are believed to have hit a wall, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki assured that the Phillies “are still talking” to both squads:

The Blue Jays don’t have last year’s closer as a fallback option. Casey Janssen already moved on, agreeing to a one-year contract with the Washington Nationals. In order to finally climb the American League East ladder, Toronto will need to bolster a bullpen that touted a 4.09 team ERA in 2014.

Papelbon does not come without his flaws. Once a lights-out stopper, his strikeouts per nine innings declined to a modest 8.55 last season. A steady dip in velocity, via FanGraphs, explains the decreasing punchouts for a man with a 10.34 career K/9 rate.

Yet he still managed a 2.04 ERA last year, and that tally has only veered over 3.00 once during 10 MLB seasons. Regression concerns will make some clubs a tad reticent, but Papelbon’s salary is a larger concern.

It wouldn’t be a major problem with a deal guaranteed to end after 2015. He also, however, carries a $13 million 2016 vesting option that will activate if he finishes 48 games this season. Last year, he completed 52.

If the Phillies can’t find a taker, expect an uncomfortable scenario where they monitor his appearances in hopes of avoiding that mark. If he could help Milwaukee or Toronto play October baseball, the looming option becomes less of a problem.

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The question isn’t whether anyone wants Stephen Strasburg. Everyone wants a 26-year-old budding ace who just led the National League in strikeouts.

The question is whether anyone will pay what it takes to get him.

Make no mistake: it’ll take a lot. 

Exactly how much is unclear, but CSN Washington‘s Chase Hughes was probably understating it when he suggested “a significant haul of prospects.”

Essentially, to land one of baseball’s best young arms, any potential suitor would have to sell the farm—literally. Is he worth it?

First, let’s address the recent comments by Strasburg‘s agent, Scott Boras, who batted down rumors that his client wants out of D.C. after the Washington Nationals inked Max Scherzer (who Boras also, coincidentally, represents).

Here’s the notorious super-agent, per Hughes: “Stephen Strasburg wants to play here and wants to be with Max Scherzer and grow. … I spoke to [Nationals general manager] Mike [Rizzo] and the people when we signed Max. And they said that they have every intention of keeping this pitching staff intact.”

Two things. First, add up the number of times Scott Boras has publicly told less than the truth and…well, report back after Labor Day.

Second, everyone is for sale for the right price.

Yes, it’s entirely possible—even plausible—that Washington wants to keep its new super-rotation intact for 2015. 

But with Scherzer in the fold for the next seven years to the tune of $210 million, surely the Nationals will at least listen to offers for Strasburg, as well as Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann.

Fister and Zimmermann are the more obvious trade candidates since each has only one year left on his contract. If they aren’t moved this winter, expect both names to pop up again at the July trade deadline.

But that’s exactly what makes Strasburg such a valuable target. He’s under team control for three more years and will earn “only” $7.4 million next season.

OK, so assuming Strasburg could be had for a crazy, farm-depleting package, let’s return to the question: Is he worth it?

On the surface, the answer seems simple.

At the risk of repetition, the kid just led the NL in strikeouts. He’s got a crackling fastball that can touch triple digits, complemented by nasty breaking stuff and a changeup he relied on more heavily last season than at any point in his MLB career, per FanGraphs. 

He may be one of many studs in the Nats‘ stable, but he’d headline most rotations.

Hang on, though; there are red flags.

There’s the Tommy John surgery Strasburg underwent in 2010 and the subsequent, controversial workload limitations that sparked doubts about his durability.

Yes, he put some of those doubts to rest by eclipsing 200 innings for the first time in 2014, but here’s some context: Three-time NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is just four months older than Strasburg, while three-time World Series champion Madison Bumgarner is eleven months younger. 

Sure, those are rough comparisons for any pitcher. That’s the point; it puts Strasburg‘s early career in perspective.

Good as he’s been, his value is still based more on potential than results. 

On the other hand, potential may be an underrated asset in this era of instant gratification, as Neil Weinberg argued last May for Daily Gammons:

Strasburg is just another example of the prospect fatigue epidemic going around. Mike Trout ruined us. No one is allowed to grow into their potential anymore before we start deciding what will be written on their tombstones. … Strasburg was a phenomenal pitching prospect. A generational talent, to be sure. But prospect status is a reflection of who the player is going to be over the course of their career, not who they are going to be right then and there. 

Weinberg goes on to convincingly make the case that Strasburg is already an elite arm (and this was before his exemplary 2014 campaign). Soon enough, he concludes, Strasburg “might be wrestling the crown away from Kershaw.”

That’s a lofty projection. The fact that it’s not laughable speaks to Strasburg‘s ceiling.

Will he reach it? Will it be in a Nats uniform?

And most pressingly, is anyone willing to pay enough to find out?

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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Major League Baseball’s offseason has been bananas, right? Perhaps the wildest and most active in recent memory—or maybe ever. At least, that’s how it feels while we’re right in the middle of it.

But how does this offseason stack up with hot stoves past?

Let’s start with a quick table that ranks the past nine offseasons in terms of total spending on free-agent contracts, according to ESPN.com:

That’s as far back as ESPN’s free-agent tracker tool goes, but there’s practically a decade’s worth of open-market expenditures, which gives us a pretty good idea.

As you can see, this offseason currently ranks as the third-highest spending in this time frame, behind 2006-07 and, yep, last year, when the New York Yankees paid out roughly half a billion all by themselves.

Because so many free agents have found homes by now, there’s no way 2014-15 can top 2013-14. But it is likely this winter will surpass 2006-07, especially once some team signs James Shields, who reportedly is seeking $125 million but may have to settle for a salary with eight figures instead, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

And here’s a look at how many clubs have paid out at least $100 million—a pretty good benchmark amount to qualify as a “big spender”—each of the past nine offseasons:

Again, the current hot-stove season rates rather high, but not quite the highest, with regard to how many clubs are spending nine figures on free agents. At least, not yet.

It’s feasible, though, that another team will join the current $100 million big spenders—the Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees—depending on where Shields winds up.

At least objectively, then, this offseason has been busy and splurgy on the free-agent front, but not necessarily the busiest or splurgiest, even within the past decade.

Of course, none of the above figures takes into account the record-setting $325 million extension Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Miami Marlins in November, or the $100 million one Kyle Seager inked in early December to stay with the Seattle Mariners.

And as an overzealous infomercial pitchman might superficially exclaim: That’s not all!

This offseason also has brought (deep breath): the Red Sox near-$100 million inkings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez on the same day; the late-fall acquisitions of Jason Heyward (now a St. Louis Cardinal) and Josh Donaldson (now a Toronto Blue Jay); the on-the-fly makeovers of the White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers; and the Arizona Diamondbacks’ decision to go big after a pair of Cuban free agents, Yasmany Tomas and Yoan Lopez. (Phew!)

Add those in, and well, the case for 2014-15 as the wildest offseason only gets stronger.

What really sticks out about this offseason—and what has made it so chaotic in our collective memory bank—is all of the activity early on, especially during the winter meetings back in December.

Over the course of those four days, Dec. 8 to 11, all hell broke loose at what was still a rather early point in the offseason.

In the span of a little more than 48 hours, Jon Lester signed with the Cubs for a whopping $155 million, Ervin Santana scored $54 million from the Minnesota Twins and David Robertson landed another $46 million from the White Sox.

And on the trade front, all of the following big leaguers were moved—in that same span of time: Matt Kemp, Jeff Samardzija, Yoenis Cespedes, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Brandon Moss, Dee Gordon, Wade Miley, Miguel Montero, Yasmani Grandal, Dan Haren and Alfredo Simon.

As Adam Berry of MLB.com recaps:

Teams handed out more than $500 million in guaranteed contracts and signing bonuses this week in deals that either became official or were agreed upon at the Winter Meetings.

There were 50 players traded and 17 signed via free agency, including 15 who changed teams. Fifteen All-Stars were on the move to a new team, from Yoenis Cespedes, now wearing the Olde English D, to Ervin Santana, heading north to Minnesota.

In all, MLB.com counted a whopping 79 players who changed teams via trade, free agency, waiver claims or the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft this past week in San Diego. Here’s a team-by-team look at the players who came and went during a very busy Winter Meetings.

That—combined with the sense that the rumor-filled meetings haven’t necessarily been quite that busy in recent years with regards to actual signings and trades, as Paul Casella of Sports on Earth writes—has given this offseason a certain frenetic pace that didn’t seem to slow down until just before and just after the new year.

The other factor that has made this such a wacky winter? Just about every team is making a push to contend in 2015, as Dave Cameron wrote for Fox Sports. Well, aside from a few clubs that are rebuilding, like the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies.

To wit, the moribund, punchless San Diego Padres acquired essentially an entire new lineup, with aggressive new general manager A.J. Preller trading for Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks.

Heck, even the Houston Astros—who are tied with the New York Mets for the longest active streak of losing seasons at six—have made a flurry of moves, especially of late, signing Colby Rasmus and trading for Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily. All within the past week, and all in the hope of finally becoming more competitive.

So has this been the wildest offseason ever? That depends on how you define wild and how far back you really want to go.

For instance, the 1992-93 offseason also had loads of player movement, especially in the form of big-name free agents, as Michael Clair of MLB.com wrote after the most recent winter meetings:

But while 2014 was nuts, with players like Matt Kemp, Jon Lester, and Yoenis Cespedes all on the move, ’92 may have been even wilder. At that year’s Meetings, Greg Maddux spurned the Yankees’ higher offer to sign with the Braves, Barry Bonds fled the Pirates to join up with San Francisco, and David Cone received the highest annual value for a pitcher when he signed a 3-year, $18 million deal with the Royals.

But that’s not all. The Orioles picked up Harold Reynolds on a one-year deal, the Yankees traded three players including J.T. Snow in exchange for Jim Abbott, and the Blue Jays loaded up for a run at repeating as World Series champs by signing Paul Molitor and current Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart. Oh yeah, and the Red Sox signed Andre Dawson!

This offseason may seem like the wackiest and wildest ever, but that’s a difficult official declaration to make.

Ultimately, even accounting for recency effect and Max Scherzer snagging $210 million from the Washingotn Nationals earlier this week—the largest free-agent pitcher contract ever awarded—the 2014-15 offseason may have to settle for being one of the most memorable hot-stove seasons.

Then again, there may still be more to come beyond Shields’ inevitable signing.

It’s possible, for instance, that Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann and/or Troy Tulowitzki—three superstars who have been mentioned as trade candidates all winter long—could get moved.

Should any or all of that happen, it will only make this offseason—already on we won’t soon forget—all the more memorable.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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