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Who’s Craig Kimbrel?

He’s the next generation of major league closers.

Kimbrel is currently slated to out duel fellow relief pitchers come spring training and capture the closers role for the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves have not had a shut down arm since John Smoltz and Kimbrel could be this decade’s dominant closer.

The soon to be 23-year old had been one of the most dominating closers in the minors before he was brought up with Atlanta in May of last year.  Kimbrel only appeared in eight games between his call up and June before being demoted back to AAA. 

The young kid’s see saw transition to the MLB continued in August when he was brought up once again and compiled 11.2 innings until seasons end.

Even with the push and pull within the Braves organization, Kimbrel was able to compile 23 saves in AAA last year.  Striking out 83 batters in 55 innings and sporting a cool 1.64 ERA.  The rookie does tend to walk batters at times, but has enough control to get out of trouble when runners are on base.

While these minor league stats prove to be very impressive, his carried over success into the majors last year is even more eye opening.  In 20.2 innings with the Braves last year, amidst a late season playoff race, Kimbrel posted a 4-0 record with a 0.44 ERA.  He struck out nearly two batters an inning with a total of 40 and only gave up nine hits with no home runs.

Kimbrel’s ability to keep the ball away from any hitter’s bat was clearly evident from his stat line from 2010.  In his 149.1 innings pitched during his three year minor league career, Kimbrel only surrendered five home runs on 74 hits.  That kind of production is rarely found among strike out closer nowadays.

The outlook for Kimbrel and the Braves in 2011 is fairly good.  With the addition of Dan Uggla, a healthy Chipper Jones and Jair Jurrjens, an immanent explosive season from Tommy Hanson, and the opportunity for rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman to make an impact, the Braves have all the pieces to be serious contenders come October.

Kimbrel is currently being drafted and ranked outside of the top 15 closers in fantasy leagues this year.  Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, and Francisco Rodriguez, who are untrusted veteran arms on the decline are all being taken ahead of Kimbrel. 

Given a full opportunity to close for the Braves for all of 2011, Kimbrel could surpass 40 saves and 100 strikeouts.  We could be witnessing the new era of closers in the MLB.  Neftali Feliz, Brian Wilson, Carlos Marmol, and Craig Kimbrel.

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Some people prefer to wait until late in their draft to acquire their fantasy closers, figuring that you can take some risks while also finding saves on the waiver wire throughout the season. 

Others like to use early- to mid-round picks in order to get an elite closer or two, hopefully stabilizing their standing in saves.  Which strategy is right is a debate for another day, but let’s look at how I currently rank the Top 15 closers heading into 2011:

1. Heath Bell – San Diego Padres
2. Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants
3. Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals
4. Neftali Feliz – Texas Rangers
5. Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees
6. Rafael Soriano – Free Agent
7. Jonathan Broxton – Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Andrew Bailey – Oakland Athletics
9. Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox
10. Francisco Rodriguez – New York Mets
11. Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs
12. Joe Nathan – Minnesota Twins
13. Huston Street – Colorado Rockies
14. Jose Valverde – Detroit Tigers
15. J.J. Putz – Arizona Diamondbacks

Thoughts:

• Joe Nathan is a real wild card, but we all know what he is capable of doing. If he proves that he is healthy in Spring Training, he could easily perform as a top 10, and maybe even a top 5 option. Since 2004 he has had one season with an ERA above 2.10 and one season with a WHIP above 0.98. To say that he has the potential to be one of the elite and a steal on draft day is an understatement.
• Will the Rangers move Feliz to the rotation? I can’t see it after his success, but time will tell at this point.
• J.J. Putz will get an opportunity to rediscover his glory as a closer in Arizona. As long as he keeps his control in under (as he did in 2010), he should be a solid option as a second closer for fantasy owners.
• Mariano Rivera is the best closer ever to play the game, we all know that. At this point, is anyone really waiting for him to finally regress due to his age? He’s one of the elite and he should be considered as such until he finally decides to hang up his spikes.
• If you draft Jonathan Papelbon, you may want to grab Daniel Bard for your bench, just in case. I know Bobby Jenks was brought in, but Bard is still the likely replacement should something happen.
• If it wasn’t for his strikeout potential, I wouldn’t go near Carlos Marmol. However, he could easily lead all relief pitchers in strikeouts, which certainly helps to offset any potential problems his walk rate brings with him.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First-Round Breakdown

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Today’s announcement of Josh Hamilton as the American League’s Most Valuable Player means baseball’s annual end-of-season awards series is over.

Few times of year breed as much controversy and debate amongst baseball fans as awards season. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen countless arguments for who should win what and why, starting with Derek Jeter’s Gold Glove and running nonstop until now.

The Rookies of the Year, Cy Youngs and MVP are voted on by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America; in each league, two writers for each team cast their ballots for the league’s best players.

Now that all is said is done, it’s time to ask: How’d they do?

In this slideshow are my grades for both the BBWAA’s choices and their total votes for each award. What do you think—would they be proud to bring home this report card?

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Major League Baseball announced the 2010 Rookies of the Year on Monday: Texas Rangers closer Neftali Feliz and San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey. These two young talents are striking examples of the different ways baseball can be played with an impact.

Feliz has electric, often unhittable stuff and commands respect through intimidation and pure power on the mound. Posey is a blue-collar, workmanlike catcher with a heavy bat and deadly accurate arm.  Are Feliz and Posey stars in the making or just flashes in the pan? Looking back through recent history for some close comparisons should answer the question.

Neftali Feliz

Arguably the most dominant closer in all of baseball, Neftali Feliz posted numbers in the 2010 season which would make any fan’s head turn. Feliz struck out 71 batters in 69.1 innings, walked only 18 and posted a staggering 0.88 WHIP during this past summer.

Much of the talk surrounding Feliz not only has dealt with his ability to lock down opposing hitters with a calm, almost stoic presence on the mound, but also his ability to post two-inning saves, a feat becoming almost extinct among today’s highly specialized closers.

Feliz’s fastball consistently reaches the upper 90s, occasionally topping the century-mark. There is no doubt that he has the tools to be a dominant closer for some time to come, but will his dependence on a fastball lead to long-term dominance, or only short-term success?

A great comparison to Feliz is Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton. A larger-than-life presence on the mound at 6’4″ and 295 pounds, Broxton has held the shutdown spot for the Dodgers since midway through the 2008 season with mixed results. Broxton’s dominating 100-mph plus fastball and offensive lineman frame is often enough to intimidate hitters into wasting at-bats.

The 2010 season, however, saw Broxton start to show signs of vulnerability, with his  1.48 WHIP and 4.04 ERA in 62.1 innings pitched. Watching Broxton pitch this season, I could see that his dependence on a fastball was no longer enough. Hitters had timed the pitch and were well aware of when and where it would be thrown. While Broxton is still a competent closer, his dependence on the fastball long term and slowing performance is an example of what could happen to Feliz if he does not add a dominant second pitch.

On the flipside, Feliz’s career could easily follow the path of Kansas City Royals closer Joakim Soria, lovingly labeled the “Mexicutioner” by his Royals teammates. Soria has seen a consistent uptick in performance since his major league debut in 2008. Soria’s fastball is devastating, reaching the upper 90s and with precision placement. His 1.75 ERA and 1.05 WHIP were among the best in baseball during 2010.

Although Soria encountered some injury issues in 2009, he looks as dominant as any closer in baseball. Sharing much of the same stoic nature as Feliz, it is very easy to see a bright future for the young Mexican closer.

Will Neftali Feliz burnout and become just another average closer along the lines of Broxton, or ride his fastball to consistent improvement and perpetual dominance like Soria?

Buster Posey

Gerald “Buster” Posey, catcher for the World Champion San Francisco Giants, was recently named the 2010 National League Most Valuable Player. Buster’s calm demeanor and workmanlike style instantly won fans among the Giants faithful during their run to the 2010 pennant.

Beginning the 2010 season with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate in Fresno, Posey dominated their pitching, batting .349 over 47 games and earning a call-up to San Francisco on May 29, never to look back.

Posey hit .305 with 18 home runs and 67 RBI in 108 games for the Giants this summer. More impressively, however, Posey showed great arm strength and accuracy, causing the moment of hesitation among NL runners, which is so important to a catcher’s long-term success defensively.

Posey’s impressive rookie campaign, and potential for longevity, can be compared to two other recent Rookies of the Year: Chicago Cubs catcher Geovany Soto and Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer.

Geovany Soto’s 2008 season opened the eyes of baseball fans across the land. Soto hit .285 with 23 home runs and 86 RBI during his electrifying Wrigley summer. Soto’s command of Cubs pitching was an important factor in the club’s run to the playoffs for the first time since 2002, and the Steve Bartman debacle. 

Soto’s bright star faded quickly in the summer of 2009 due to multiple injuries, which allowed him to appear in only 102 games behind the plate, hitting a meager .218.

Soto entered camp in 2010 in better physical shape, but still was unproductive at the plate, hitting .280 and driving in only 53 runs. If Soto can bounce back from his injury issues, a long career could be a possibility, but he is a great example of what could happen to Buster Posey if the wear-and-tear of the catcher’s duties take effect.

Joe Mauer, the Twins’ ironman catcher, shows the other end of the spectrum. Mauer has caught an average of 114.5 games (while playing a total average of 133.5 games overall) in the last six seasons since his arrival as a full-time catcher in 2005, and has hit .327 lifetime. If Posey can enjoy this same health and consistent improvement behind and at the plate, he could easily become one of the greats.

Will Neftali Feliz become the next Mariano Rivera? Will Buster Posey become the new Pudge Rodriguez, or Joe Mauer? Many factors will play a part, some in their control, and others which cannot be controlled.

What do you think?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The mainstream media’s fascination with closers reached another level Monday with the announcement that Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers has been named American League Rookie of the Year by the voters from the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).

Everyday player Austin Jackson, center fielder for the Detroit Tigers, finished second, but it wasn’t really close. Feliz nabbed 20 of the 28 first-place votes; the other eight went to Jackson.

The writers were blinded by Feliz’s 40 saves for a division winner. We can debate how important a stat saves really are (and we will), but to deny an everyday position player like Jackson the award was a travesty.

What follows are five reasons this is so.

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Following a few years of an unstable closing situation at the back-end of their bullpen, the Texas Rangers finally found a rock to lean on in flame-throwing rookie, Neftali Feliz.

Perhaps not so coincidentally, the Rangers fought their way to the best finish in the franchise’s 50-year history, winning the 2010 American League pennant.

Providing the foundation upon which the team built their success, the 22-year-old right-hander rode his dominant stuff to a shut-down season in the closer role, pitching himself into baseball’s record books along the way and winning the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year Award. I

t was the first time a Ranger had taken home the coveted honor since Mike Hargrove was named the league’s top rookie in 1974.

Closing games all year for Texas after incumbent Frank Francisco struggled in early April, Feliz broke the previous rookie saves record of 37 that Kazuhiro Sasaki of the Seattle Mariners established in 2000. Sasaki’s record setting performance was enough to win the Rookie of the Year Award that season as well. Feliz became the second consecutive reliever to win the award, following Oakland‘s Andrew Bailey last year.

In a relatively shallow 2010 AL rookie class, Feliz’s dominance easily outclassed his competition for baseball’s top rookie honor. Texas’ pitching phenom was listed first on 20 of 28 ballots to win the voting decisively. Detroit‘s Austin Jackson finished second to Feliz in the hotly contested balloting. Minnesota‘s third baseman Danny Valencia rounded-out the top three.

The young Texas closer was not only the top rookie in the American League, but was among the top closers in all of baseball during 2010. His 93 percent success rate in save opportunities trailed only Heath Bell, Rafael Soriano and Joakim Soria in all of Major League Baseball  amongst closers with at least 30 saves.

Over 69.1 innings, Feliz struck out 71, while only allowing 43 hits and 18 walks for a 0.88 WHIP. His 59 games finished led the American League, and his 2.73 ERA, .176 opponents’ batting average and .246 opponents’ on-base percentage put him in elite company amongst closers.

Overall, not only was he the league’s top rookie, but the argument could be reasonably be made that he was one of the two best closers in the AL this season.

His performance after the All-Star break may have cemented the award for him in the minds of voters.

While Austin Jackson regressed significantly after his scintillating start, Neftali Feliz only got better down the stretch. In the second half of the season, Feliz made 31 appearances, earning 17 saves with a 1.42 ERA and a minuscule 0.663 WHIP, improving upon his 3.83 ERA and 1.062 WHIP from the first half.

Feliz provided a dominant force at the end of the bullpen for his Rangers team as they battled toward the postseason.

Though it doesn’t figure into the voting for the Rookie of the Year, Feliz continued his dominance in October as well. He only earned one save, but in 7.1 innings, he sported a 1.23 ERA, while striking out 11. The Rangers ultimately fell to the Giants in five games to lose the World Series, but Feliz made his presence felt whenever he took the mound.

It remains to be seen how Feliz will be deployed by the Rangers in the future. Before 2009, he had been primarily a starter, and Texas has envisioned the burgeoning, young fire-baller as an ace to lead their starting rotation for years to come.

However, that plan has been sidetracked somewhat, as he has proved to be an invaluable presence at the back end of their bullpen. The Rangers may be inclined to try to get more value from the youngster by transitioning him into a front-line starting pitcher, similar to C.J. Wilson’s evolution as a hurler.

For now, however, in Neftali Feliz, the Texas Rangers have a shut-down closer in their relief corps, a young hurler whose rookie campaign culminated in a World Series appearance and the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year award.

Texas may be reluctant to tinker with such a successful formula, in hopes that they might be able to duplicate 2010’s success and create a powerhouse in Arlington for the next several years.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Baseball Writers Association of America have announced its choice for AL Rookie of the Year for 2010, and Texas Rangers RP Neftali Feliz took home the honor while capturing 20 of the possible 28 first-place votes.

It was always almost assuredly going to be either Austin Jackson or Neftali Feliz—both of whom had fine seasons, but neither of whom was truly the best rookie in the American League.

The best newbie in the Junior Circuit was a 24-year-old catcher named Carlos Santana.

Before the 2010 season, Santana was widely considered among the best of an immensely talented pool of promising catching prospects. With respect to Mr. Posey, in his short time in the majors, Santana emerged as arguably the best young backstop in baseball.

For the purposes of the Rookie of the Year award, the operative words are “short time in the majors.” Santana appeared in just 46 MLB games this year between his call-up on June 11 and his season-ending knee injury on August 2.

There’s a difference between the most valuable rookie and the best. Yet the lack of playing time is the only rationale voters can possibly have for not naming Santana the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year.

Forget his promising power (.207 ISO, six homers). Forget his decent speed (three steals). Forget the fact that he shored up the middle of Cleveland’s lineup as a catcher. The most fantastic aspect of Santana’s game was his unbelievable plate discipline.

Carlos Santana’s 19.3-percent walk rate was the best in baseball this season among players with at least 100 plate appearances. Keep in mind that he did that as a rookie. To have that kind of plate discipline at age 24—that’s ridiculous. Did I mention he’s a catcher?

All told, Santana was worth 2.0 Wins Above Replacement in just 46 games. Even assuming he doesn’t improve any further (and since he’s not even 25, it’s a safe bet that he will), that makes him a six-win player over a full season. Compare that to the 5.1 WAR Joe Mauer posted this season, and it’s clear the Indians have a tremendous asset on their hands.

Santana’s power and plate discipline mean his success is sustainable (assuming he recovers from his knee problems). That’s more than we can say for Austin Jackson.

Jackson put up nice numbers this year, hitting .293/.345/.400 while scoring 103 runs and swiping 27 bases. But his plate discipline was lacking, as evidenced by his unimpressive 7.0-percent walk rate and scary 27.5-percent strikeout rate. The latter figure is worse than David Wright’s, but without the power. So how did Jackson do so well for himself?

The answer lies in his batting average on balls in play. Jackson’s .396 BABIP was the best in baseball, and while there’s reason to believe it can remain relatively high, it’s absurd to think that it won’t come down next season.

Using The Hardball Times’ xBABIP calculator, we find that a smaller proportion of balls he hits inside the park—.355, still much higher than the average—could be expected to fall for hits.

Substitute his xBABIP for his BABIP and even with the generous assumption that all the lost hits would be singles, his slashline falls to just .263/.311/.370—plus, as the number of times he gets on base decreases, so will his runs and steals. Would you want that kind of player on your team? Would you ever consider casting your vote for that guy for Rookie of the Year?

Interestingly, Santana got shafted in terms of BABIP, meaning his numbers should be even better. Using his .305 xBABIP in place of his .277 BABIP, his slashline jumps to .286/.417/.493. That’s a .910 OPS—probably more, since I assumed all the gained hits would be singles—from a catcher. That’s the kind of production that gets your name in the MVP discussions.

Of course, none of this matters, because (through no fault of his own) Santana played less than a third of a season, and therefore has no chance of being named Rookie of Year. But just because he won’t be doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be.

For more Indians coverage, visit WahooBlues.com.

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While 2010 has been the year of the pitcher, it has also been the year of the rookie. The National League has a crowded field of players who could all win the Rookie of the Year Award in any other year. The American League has a good group of candidates as well.

According to the MLB.com written up on the AL awards race, the finalists are Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson, and Wade Davis, all of whom had very good years. Other people in the running, according to them, are as follows, taken right from the article: “Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers; Reid Brignac, IF, Rays; Jason Donald, SS, Indians; Brian Matusz, Orioles; Will Rhymes, 2B, Tigers; Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox; Sergio Santos, RHP, White Sox; Carlos Santana, C, Indians; Josh Tomlin, RHP, Indians.”

Notice anyone missing in that list? How about a guy who hit .311 in 85 games and helped bring an injury-riddled team to 95 wins and the playoffs? Seriously, you put a guy who played in 45 games (Rhymes) and a guy who played in 46 games (Santana) in a finalist list, but leave off an obvious top-five selection who will certainly get a few votes?

It would be like looking at the NL finalists and leaving off Jaime Garcia completely. Not necessarily the guy that will win it, but someone who’s played enough and played well enough that he will be considered.

Let’s look at what Valencia brings to the table, or the ballot, for that matter. His stats for the most part don’t show dominance, but his .311 average is impressive, as is his .351 on base percentage and .799 OPS, both of which beat out Austin Jackson. His 2.5 WAR is also among the top of his AL contemporaries.

Beyond that, Valencia’s been a decent fielder in an unappreciated and difficult position, third base. Still, even when discounting the offense and defense, the intangibles that he brought to the team helped get them moving. When Brendan Harris and Nick Punto were ineffective, Valencia went right in to the hot corner and solidified that position for the team.

Did he help lead the team when Justin Morneau got injured? No, I won’t go that far. Those honors go to Joe Mauer and Delmon Young. Could we say that though about Josh Tomlin, Chris Sale, or Reid Brignac? Of course not, they were role players at best. Could we say that about Feliz or Davis? No, the Rangers had other great bullpen pitchers and the Rays had other great starting pitchers.

I understand that he has his weaknesses as well. He only played 85 games, unlike the other frontrunners, who played throughout the season. He doesn’t have any eye-popping numbers either, like Feliz does with his rookie saves record.

So am I saying that Valencia should absolutely be Rookie of the Year? Not necessarily. It’s a tough choice between the top four, and one could make a good argument for any of them.

But to leave him out of the discussion entirely? That’s just embarrassing.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Two weeks ago, Bleacher Report’s MLB Featured Columnists began releasing the results of our end-of-season awards vote. Over the last fortnight, we’ve debated our picks for Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, Comeback Players, and Rolaids Relief Men of the Year.

Today we begin covering the major awards with the AL Rookie of the Year award. At 2 p.m. EST next Monday, the BBWAA will release their choice for the Junior Circuit’s best newbie; until then, you’re stuck with ours.

This was the closest race we had, with just one first-place vote separating the top two finishers, and we had a tie for fifth place. The top six finishers are featured here, with the full results at the end.

So read on, see how we did and be sure to let us know what we got wrong!

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Neftali Feliz is expected to be named the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year tomorrow, beating out Baltimore Orioles starter Brian Matusz and Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson.

The Texas Rangers’ electric closer set a rookie record by saving 40 games, and helped lead his team to their first ever World Series appearance. That’s quite a debut.

But where do his achievements rank among other past Rookies of the Year? Here’s a look back at the AL’s last 10 ROY award winners and their accomplishments in their rookie seasons.

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