Kuzul

The previous two offseasons have left us with a new, unexpected baseball term: Victim of the Qualifying Offer, which refers to a player who has spurned the offer in search of longer-term riches only to regret how he played his hand.

Doing away with Major League Baseball’s Type A-B free-agent system and implementing the one-year qualifying offers at the end of the last collective bargaining agreement made understanding free agency much simpler. Under the new rules, teams can offer their free agents a one-year contract worth the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, and if the player rejects the offer, that team receives a compensatory draft pick between the next year’s first and second rounds. Conversely, the team who signs that player loses its top unprotected pick.

Simple, right? Sure it is. Still, despite the new system being easier for the casual fan to comprehend, it has resulted in baffling outcomes for players who have either received, turned down and/or had their stock severely hindered in the free-agent market because they are attached to draft-pick compensation.

“You hate to say it, but it really messes up free agency for guys who worked hard,” Stephen Drew told CBSSports.com insider Jon Heyman last February before he eventually signed with the Boston Red Sox (but not until late May). “A lot of people don’t want to give up that first-round pick, and that’s what it boils down to. It’s unusual.”

Based on what we have witnessed the last two falls, winters and even springs, this current offseason is actually the abnormality. When Melky Cabrera signed with the Chicago White Sox last week, it officially broke the Curse of the Qualifying Offer.

This offseason had 12 players receive and reject the qualifying offer of $15.3 million—none of the 33 players extended the one-year deal over the last three offseasons has accepted the offer—and only Max Scherzer and James Shields remain unsigned. However, their availability is all about the market playing out and cost rather than draft-pick compensation.

Last season, Drew was not alone in free-agent purgatory. Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz and especially Kendrys Morales had their stocks crippled by draft-pick compensation. All of them ended up with one-year deals agreed to either late in the process or for significantly less money than they would have made by accepting the qualifying offer or both. Morales signed with the Minnesota Twins after the June amateur draft, when his compensation was voided.

This year, there figured to be at least one solid candidate to regret declining the qualifying offer had he actually done so. The Colorado Rockies offered the one-year deal to Michael Cuddyer, a shocking move considering the Rockies’ outfield logjam, that Cuddyer played in 280 games in his three seasons with Colorado and that he had severe Coors Field/road splits. Cuddyer seemed likely to accept the offer since a multiyear deal for him appeared uncertain, plus if he rejected the qualifying offer, he would have been the safe bet to see his free agency extend well beyond the new year.

But then the New York Mets came calling with a stunning two-year, $21 million contract. Knowing what had happened to other non-top-tier free agents before him, Cuddyer was set to accept the Rockies’ offer had the Mets deal not come together. 

Michael Cuddyer said he would have accepted qualifying offer from #Rockies if #Mets deal had not come together by Monday deadline.

— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) November 11, 2014

Cuddyer, 36 next season, was the offseason’s first significant signing, and it was a sign of things to come in an offense-starved market. Virtually any hitter with a pulse became coveted, including those tied to a draft pick.

Victor Martinez, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were the first dominoes to tumble after Cuddyer, although they were never candidates to be QO victims. Russell Martin followed, but due to his defensive and pitch-framing attributes, he was also never likely to see his free agency extend into the late winter or early spring.

Cruz, who rejected last year’s offer and ended up almost inexplicably waiting until late February to sign a one-year, $8 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles, signed a four-year, $57 million deal with the Seattle Mariners before the winter meetings. This year, neither draft-pick compensation nor a Biogenesis suspension was a factor, and no one expected it to be.

Aside from Cuddyer, closer David Robertson was maybe the next likeliest to be a victim of the qualifying offer. Before Robertson, Rafael Soriano was the only other reliever to receive and reject a qualifying offer, and he ended up waiting until mid-January to get a deal in 2013. But being the lone experienced closer on the open market got Robertson a four-year deal from the White Sox at the winter meetings.

That signing left 30-something pitchers Santana, a victim last year, and Francisco Liriano as the only candidates for QO victimization.

“I never thought it would happen this way. I thought it would be easier,” Santana told USA Today Sports’ Jorge L. Ortiz last spring about being a QO victim. Fortunately, neither he nor Liriano would endure the same fate this offseason.

Both pitchers signed right after the winter meetings, helped by the fact that the market’s alternatives—Scherzer and Lester—were seeking nine-figure contracts. And just like that, no one was left to regret his decision of rejecting the qualifying offer.

The system is still too new to know if it is cyclical, but it seems reasonable to believe free agents will become victims based on market needs. This year has clearly been a buyer’s market, and even fringe-level free agents are benefiting, although current and expected rich TV deals could have something to do with this going forward.

Fair or unfair, the qualifying-offer system is in play for at least the next two offseasons before the collective bargaining agreement can be reworked. While there were no victims of the system this time around, odds tell us we will see the draft-pick compensation scare away suitors and leave players waiting through spring training for teams in the near future.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Who knew it would start raining bats in Seattle?

Robinson Cano last winter. Nelson Cruz this winter. Maybe the drought is finally over. The Seattle Mariners: Early AL West favorites entering 2015? You bet. Mark it down. Lattes all around.

And keep pouring: With a zesty mix of youth and experience, the Mariners now are built to win not just in 2015, but also for a handful of years beyond.

General manager Jack Zduriencik stubbornly has clung to his plan, building around ace Felix Hernandez, refusing to trade him despite the free advice of national columnists, and good for Zduriencik. Tempting though it may have been during all of those summers when the Mariners would have had an easier time rapping with Macklemore than scoring a run (or, gasp, two), I never thought they should have solved their production problem by dealing an arm like Hernandez’s for bats.

First, it is really, really hard to find an ace like The King, especially one who wants to stay in town.

Second, Seattle fans deserved at least one player worth watching in Safeco Field.

The exasperating part came two and three years ago when the Mariners felt they were close to winning and yet couldn’t land a cornerstone lineup piece.

They chased Prince Fielder hard on the free-agent market before Fielder went to Motown. Disappointment level: extremely high, because as Milwaukee’s farm director before taking the Mariners gig, Zduriencik drafted Fielder and hoped maybe that relationship would have given Seattle the inside track.

They chased Josh Hamilton hard on the free-agent market before Hamilton signed with the Los Angeles Angels. Disappointment level: moderate, because while Seattle never really expected Hamilton to sign, Zduriencik romanced him hard and, ultimately, Hamilton landed with a rival AL West team.

They were set to acquire outfielder Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks two winters ago, but Upton exercised his no-trade powers to void the trade and instead steer himself to Atlanta. Disappointment level: not so high, because the cost would have been high. Sources told me at the time that the Diamondbacks would have received one pitcher from Seattle’s “Big Three” prospect list—Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen or James Paxton, likely Walker—plus two relief pitchers.

For now, Walker, Hultzen and Paxton all remain in Seattle and in the Mariners’ plans. For now, because the M’s remain in trade talks with the Dodgers (Matt Kemp), who reportedly are demanding Walker or Paxton, and in free-agent talks (Torii Hunter, Alex Rios).

In Seattle’s best-case scenario, Cruz, who sources say agreed on a four-year, $57 million deal, will spend most of his time as designated hitter, and the Mariners will add one of the aforementioned outfielders to play right field.

There is no question Cruz is a major upgrade. Mariners designated hitters in 2014 ranked last in the AL in slugging percentage (.307), on-base percentage (.270), batting average (.191) and RBI (49). Only the Kansas City Royals’ DHs, with six, hit fewer home runs than Seattle’s 15.

Also:

In Baltimore last year, Cruz, 34, led the majors with 40 homers, ranked third in the AL with 108 RBI and fifth with a .525 slugging percentage.

Kendrys Morales, he ain’t. This is a man who can rattle Safeco Field fences.

Add Kyle Seager’s seven-year, $100 million deal, and the Mariners are on the move. Lots of people point to the dip in Cano’s home run total last summer—14, down from 27 in 2013 and 33 in 2012—failing to put it into the proper context. Safeco Field is nowhere near as homer-friendly as Yankee Stadium, and Cano mostly was surrounded by young, inexperienced hitters.

I had a long and interesting talk about this one day last season with manager Lloyd McClendon, who was bullish on Cano.

“He’s stabilized and solidified this lineup,” McClendon told Bleacher Report. “He’s given guys more oomph in their step, more pump in their chest.   

“And that’s something nobody outside this group can know.”

With Cruz batting behind him, Seager and Mike Zunino continuing to develop, the fleet Austin Jackson in center field for an entire season, King Felix, Walker, Paxton, Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound and third-base prospect D.J. Petson on the horizon, the Mariners should have more pump in their chest now for quite awhile.

2. Culture Change Across the Border

Russell Martin? Great talent, good guy.

Josh Donaldson? Great talent, good guy.

On the Friday night after Thanksgiving, the Toronto Blue Jays did not settle for leftovers. The Martin free-agent deal ($82 million) already was done, but the Donaldson trade was stunning.

Stunning, for Toronto, in a very good way.

It’s no secret that Donaldson’s WAR over the past two seasons ranks second in the majors only to that of the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout. This is a gritty player, a good hitter, a terrific third baseman and a clubhouse leader with a big heart.

Given Baltimore’s crippling loss of Nelson Cruz, the AL East this winter is turning into a free-for-all. Let’s see what the Orioles do next, and let’s see if Boston gets some pitching, but right now you have to like Toronto’s chances to contend.

Clearly, the Jays are going for it. Now, the cautionary tale is that Toronto went for it two winters ago, too, in acquiring Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey. Some had the Jays as favorites to win the AL East heading into 2013 (yup, that’s my hand that is raised), only to see them crash and burn.

It’s apparent that general manager Alex Anthopolous is shifting the culture in the clubhouse with the Martin and Donaldson deals. Both are gamers with playoff experience. The Jays’ job isn’t yet done. They have other holes to fill (such as second base, the rotation and in the outfield). But they’re going to be very interesting in 2015.

3. Follow the Bouncing Billy Beane

Meanwhile, from the Oakland perspective: Trading Josh Donaldson is another whopper of a head-scratcher. The A’s already dealt Yoenis Cespedes last summer. Donaldson was their best overall player. He finished fourth in MVP voting in 2013 and eighth in 2014. He was under club control for another four years before he was eligible for free agency.

“He’s an Oakland-type player,” a scout with a rival team says. “He leaves it all on the field. I just don’t understand why you would give away your three-four hole hitters [Yoenis Cespedes and Donaldson] who won you division titles. Now all of a sudden, Brett Lawrie and Billy Butler replace Cespedes and Donaldson? It cuts down on your offense.”

So…why would Oakland trade Donaldson?

Well, you could say because the Athletics are rebuilding, especially if starter Jeff Samardzija is the next player dealt (as many in the industry expect).

Except, the A’s just gave designated hitter Butler a three-year, $30 million deal. That doesn’t look like rebuilding.

Maybe the A’s traded Donaldson because after dealing prospects to the Cubs for Samardzija last summer, their system needed restocking. And along with third baseman Brett Lawrie, the A’s also received three prospects from Toronto: pitchers Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin, and a young, blue-chip shortstop, Franklin Barreto, 18.

What we know about Athletics’ president and general manager Billy Beane is that there always is a method to his madness, even when the surface dots don’t connect. So that’s the theory I’m going with now.

If there are no subsequent moves, the Donaldson trade is a dud. But with Beane, there always are subsequent moves.

One final thought, though: If you are an Oakland fan, fall in love with the players at your own risk. Because the player you fall in love with today is the player the A’s will ship away tomorrow.

The A’s ranked 24th in the majors in attendance last summer at 25,045 a game, and 10th in the AL. And that was for a team that was dominant for much of the summer. You wonder if attendance in Oakland would be better with any kind of roster stability.

4. The Rest of the Donaldson Story?

One industry source says he “knew” the Athletics would trade Josh Donaldson this winter, no matter how little baseball sense it made, because the All-Star and Beane were “at war” by season’s end.

Multiple sources cite a verbal altercation between the two after Donaldson told manager Bob Melvin he needed a couple of days off after Oakland had played several days in a row. The story goes, Beane told Donaldson if he needed a couple of days off, the club should put him on the disabled list, and that made Donaldson unhappy.

While both Donaldson and Beane downplayed the incident in a couple of texts to the San Francisco Chronicle‘s terrific baseball writer, John Shea, the industry source described a different scenario to Bleacher Report.

“Donaldson told the manager he needed a blow, and [Bob] Melvin said, ‘You got it,’ ” the source said. “Then that night’s lineup came out and Billy asked, ‘Where’s Donaldson?’ “

When told what happened, the source says, an angry Beane demanded that Melvin put Donaldson back into the lineup.

“They got into it in the coach’s office,” the source says, describing a scene in which Beane lit into Donaldson, with the third baseman reiterating his need for a day off and petulantly calling Beane “Billy Boy.”

“Nobody talks to Billy that way,” the source said. “It did not surprise me in the least that he got rid of Donaldson.”

5. Goodbyes and Social Media

Used to be, a superstar player would take out an ad in the local newspaper when that part of his career closed.

Now? Yes, Twitter. Donaldson says goodbye to Oakland here in a moving message.

6. Hitters Coming off the Board

For what seems like decades, it’s been all about the pitching. No longer.

While top free-agent pitchers Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields remain on the market, the best hitters are being snapped up like popcorn at The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part I.

Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Cuddyer, Adam LaRoche, Russell Martin, even Chris Young (the outfielder)…all signed.

Moreover, in a telling trend, AL clubs this winter appear more willing to return to the old days of paying for a true DH:

The Tigers wasted no time in re-signing Victor Martinez (four years, $68 million).

The Mariners signed Nelson Cruz (four years, $57 million) to DH.

The A’s invested in Billy Butler (three years, $30 million).

And though the Red Sox signed Sandoval to play third base, they clearly plan on him replacing David Ortiz, 39, at DH in the waning years of his deal (five years, $95 million).

7. Free-Agent Power Rankings

My weekly take as agents bluster, suitors cluster and bean counters muster the courage to write those checks…

1. Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46, 1.10 WHIP): The Cubs, Red Sox and Giants, among others, are making their cases. Lester would look great in AT&T Park, especially for a Giants club that just lost its Panda. But it’s still difficult not to see this coming down to the Cubs and Red Sox.

2. Andrew Miller (5-5, 2.02, 0.802 WHIP): The Royals dominated in October, and everyone wants to emulate their HDH Kelvin Herrera/Wade Davis/Greg Holland bullpen. And suddenly, a late-blooming, lanky (6’7″) 29-year old may be in line for a four-year, $40 million deal. Hello, Yankees…or Dodgers…or Red Sox.

3. Torii Hunter (.286/.319/.446, 17 homers, 83 RBI): With Nelson Cruz off the board, the Orioles suddenly have a big need. And the Mariners are still looking for a right fielder either via trade (Matt Kemp?) or a short-term free-agent fix. Hunter, 39, would be perfect in Seattle, where he could slide over to DH on occasion when a left-hander is throwing to rest his legs (because Nelson Cruz can play first base instead of Logan Morrison on those days).

4. Melky Cabrera (.301/.351/.458, 16 homers, 73 RBI): Everybody is looking for a hitter, and did you see what Nelson Cruz signed for? Somewhere, Cabrera is smiling. Hello, big money. Again.

5. Tim Flannery: Retiring Giants coach heading into the best kind of free agency, choosing each day between singing and surfing…

8. Goodbye Flan Man

Few coaches were as beloved as Tim Flannery, who unexpectedly retired as the Giants third-base coach a couple of weeks after the World Series. A great baseball mind, talented songwriter, raconteur, nature lover and a deeply spiritual man, Flannery is that rare treasure who can relate to many different people in many different ways.

It’s no wonder that manager Bruce Bochy and general manager Brian Sabean each were said to have shed some tears when Flannery told them he was hanging up his spikes, though there’s a chance the tears could have come because they realized they weren’t just losing their third-base coach, but their moonshine connection as well (Flannery’s family comes from the hills of Kentucky).

Anyway, in a farewell interview on San Francisco’s KNBR radio with Rod Brooks and Bob Fitzgerald, this part of what Flannery said will give you a glimpse into the soul of the man:

I want to tell a quick story, because this was the final straw for me. The last week of the World Series, I hear my nephew’s wife had a baby—I didn’t even know she was pregnant. The season is so long that she got pregnant the first week of spring training and had the baby the last week before the World Series. The season is so long that an egg can get fertilized, it can become a human, you can carry it for nine months, and then it gets spit out at the end, and I’m still playing the same baseball game every night, every night, every night. I just…I’m going surfing, sorry.

Here’s to good waves and good songs in your retirement, Flan. And on a personal note, I’m thankful to live in the same town as Tim. I plan to see him often with his crack band, The Lunatic Fringe.

9. RIP to a Boston Legend

Dick Bresciani passed away this week after battling leukemia, and while you probably don’t know the name unless you’re obsessed with the Red Sox, you should. Bresciani, 76, was Boston’s longtime public relations chief and had served the Red Sox in some capacity or another since 1972 (in these final years, he acted as the club’s historian).

Bresh, as he was known, was one of those background people (read: not in uniform) who spends nearly as much time at the ballpark as the grass on the field. While fans get to know the players, people like Bresh are the ones who outlast the players and give an organization its soul.

One quick personal story: When I was covering the Twins in the late 1990s, they opened one season in Boston. Well, tried to. Opening day was snowed out.

So the players went to the park to stretch and loosen up, and I went that afternoon because readers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press were going to expect a story the next day on their team and what an opening-day snowout meant.

Now, here’s where things went off the rails: The Sox, in those days, were not the most media-friendly club around (even though Bresciani always had a smile). So upon my arrival at Fenway Park, security guards gruffly informed me the place was closed and I could not come in, even with a media pass. I explained that the Twins were inside, and they told me their clubhouse was open and I could come in.

The guard told me to wait and then disappeared, I assumed, to phone upstairs and get this cleared up. Well, when he returned, he not only told me I couldn’t come in, he threw me out of the Fenway Park entryway. Pulled the garage door shut behind me, leaving me on Yawkey Way to look for a cab as the snow piled up on the sidewalk and the enormous, wet flakes from the blinding snowstorm left me soaked.

A couple of hours later, after I had talked with some Twins over the telephone (having explained what happened), the phone rang in my hotel room. It was Bresh, who by now had heard what happened and apologized profusely.

Small story from a long-ago time. But clearly, I’ve never forgotten it, and it always made me smile. That phone call helped melt my anger like the snow melted a day later, and I always enjoyed seeing him at Fenway Park. Rest in peace, Bresh.

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.

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The Seattle Mariners have reportedly signed Nelson Cruz. Yancen Pujols of the Dominican newspaper El Caribe reported the news, which was confirmed by ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

The former Rangers slugger will make his return to the American League West after a one-year hiatus in Baltimore, where he mashed 40 home runs and drove in 108 runs.

Cruz gives the Mariners a three-headed monster in the middle of the order that also features Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. For manager Lloyd McClendon, it’s a poor man’s version of the trio (Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez) he coached in Detroit.

While not as fearsome as Detroit’s grouping, Seattle’s trio finally gives the M’s the complete set of sluggers they have been searching for.

The middle of the Mariners lineup is complete, but the batting order is far from it.

In terms of OPS, Seattle received below-average production from every position except second and third base—positions where Seager and Cano receive the lion’s share of at-bats. These low numbers should change in 2015.

First base and center field will be greatly improved with Logan Morrison and Austin Jackson, respectively, playing full seasons, while Cruz will solidify the designated hitter position. In addition, catcher and shortstop should see continued improvements from youngsters Mike Zunino and Chris Taylor.

That leaves the corner outfield spots as the only positions susceptible to change.

Seattle’s right fielders (namely Michael Saunders, Endy Chavez and Stefen Romero) ranked 17th in OPS in the league. Dustin Ackley received the majority of the at-bats in left field. Ackley and the Mariners’ other left fielders ranked 21st in OPS.  

It’s entirely possible that none of the previously mentioned four hitters will be in the Opening Day lineup in 2015.

According to Crasnick, the Mariners have reportedly shopped Saunders. In addition, Chavez is 36, and Romero hit .192 in 177 plate appearances.

At 26 years old, Ackley hasn’t lived up to the potential that made him the second overall pick. That, combined with Ackley’s ability to play multiple positions, makes him better suited as a utility player.

An outfielder like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton would be an outstanding addition. But at this point, with a middle-of-the-order trio in place, Cespedes or Upton would be a costly luxury that would likely mean the loss of Taijuan Walker or James Paxton.

Seattle should be going after complementary bats in the mold of Jackson or Morrison—players who can fill out the top of the lineup card and, more importantly, the sixth through ninth spots in the order.

Cano, Cruz and Seager are fantastic, but someone has to hit between them and Zunino (who’ll likely hit toward the bottom of the lineup).

Players like Marlon Byrd, Alex Rios, Torii Hunter and Alejandro De Aza are all attainable, as is old friend Ichiro Suzuki. Melky Cabrera is another name to watch.

Cabrera finished 2014 with an .808 OPS, good for 33rd in all of baseball. His OPS was higher than potential teammate Seager, as well as established stars like Albert Pujols, Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones and Ryan Braun.

Hunter—who is looking at Seattle along with a handful of other teams, according to Mark Whicker of OCRegister.com—wasn’t far behind Cabrera with a .765 OPS. Byrd posted a .757 OPS.  

The moral of the story here is that there are options out there for the M’s.

Signing Cruz is a start, but the Mariners need more hitters to fill out the lineup. Whether they accomplish the feat by trade (Byrd or potentially De Aza) or free agency (Hunter, Cabrera, et al.), the team will have plenty of attractive options.

Once this happens, the M’s offense will no longer be second fiddle to the team’s outstanding pitching. Once this happens, the M’s will finally experience October baseball.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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General manager Jack Zduriencik and the Seattle Mariners aren’t bashful. We’ll give ’em that.

For the second winter in a row, the M’s have reportedly made a major splash in free agency. And for the second winter in a row, they’ve done so by doling out a contract that presents major risk and potentially horrid value at the back half.

Last year, it was a 10-year deal to Robinson Cano, who will make $24 million when he’s 40 years old. Now, it’s reportedly a four-year contract worth $57 million to 34-year-old Nelson Cruz.

Although the deal isn’t yet official, El Caribe, a Dominican Republic newspaper, originally reported the news, and it has been confirmed by several other sources, including Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi:

Not surprisingly, opinions of Seattle’s newest acquisition are about as contrasting as it gets.

Chris Carlin of SNY.tv applauded the deal, while FanGraphs‘ David Cameron lambasted it:

Cameron essentially pointed toward the length of the contract, arguing that Cruz isn’t “expected to produce any value in his age-37 season.” That means he’ll likely have to justify the $57 million in a span of three—or potentially two—years. For a player who is expected to spend most of his time at DH, that’s a decidedly difficult task.

Nevertheless, risky deal or not, the M’s couldn’t afford to sit back and wait. Already boasting a fantastic pitching staff (Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Roenis Elias, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen) and a stable of talented lefty hitters (Cano, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley), Seattle is right on the cusp of contention.

Taking the next step requires adding a right-handed power hitter.

Last year, the Mariners had three left-handed hitters with at least 300 plate appearances and a .400 slugging percentage, while Ackley (542 PA, .398 SLG) and Michael Saunders (263 PA, .450 SLG) were both close.

The amount of right-handed hitters to hit those plateaus? One—Mike Zunino, who finished with a .199 batting average.

Many are expecting a regression from Cruz, who hit 40 home runs with the Baltimore Orioles after averaging 27 per season in the previous five years with the Texas Rangers. Even if he does fall back to earth, though, he’s a career .289/.364/.522 hitter against lefties (.261/.316/.493 against righties), representing an obvious upgrade for the M’s.

Moreover, as ESPN Stats & Info illustrated, he’ll do so at the team’s worst position:

Cruz presents risk, sure. But also, his name is not Kendrys Morales or Corey Hart, so he has that going for him.

The Mariners, in an attempt to stop wasting the prime seasons of Hernandez and Cano, are in obvious win-now mode, and inserting Cruz into the middle of the lineup immediately increases their chances of ending a 13-year playoff drought.

Should that happen, it may not matter what he does—or what his paychecks say—in 2017 or ’18.

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The Seattle Mariners are betting big that Nelson Cruz, whose 40 home runs led all of Major League Baseball in 2014, can help get them to the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Like, 13 years long.

The Mariners went 87-75 last year—their first winning season since 2009—and missed out on the postseason by a single, solitary game. On the final day, they actually had a chance at a Game 163 if the Oakland Athletics had lost.

Instead, the A’s won to advance to the Wild Card Game, while the M’s still haven’t played October baseball since 2001.

That’s a long, long time to wait, which is why Seattle reportedly has spent a lot of money over a lot of years—$57 million over four, to be exact, according to Yancen Pujols of Dominican newspaper El Caribe—to bring aboard Cruz, thus filling the club’s primary need for a power hitter from the right side.

ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick confirmed later Monday that Cruz and Seattle have an agreement in place, pending a physical.

That’s the big-money, multi-year contract Cruz was seeking this time a year ago, when his market was undercut by being attached to draft-pick compensation and having been suspended 50 games at the end of the 2013 season as part of the Biogenesis investigation.

Cruz wound up having to wait until late February—after pitchers and catchers had reported—to sign with the Baltimore Orioles, settling for a mere $8 million over one season.

It might seem odd that Cruz would see his value shoot up so much in the span of nine months, but two factors are at play.

One, the 34-year-old put together his most productive season, hitting .271/.333/.525 with 40 homers and 108 RBI, both career highs.

And two, Seattle had a major need for a big right-handed bat to team with perennial MVP candidate Robinson Cano and underrated new $100 million man Kyle Seager, both of whom hit in the middle of the Mariners’ lineup and swing from the left side.

After all, in their desperation to fill that void and push toward the playoffs, the Mariners had been mentioned as suitors for everyone from no-longer free agent Hanley Ramirez, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, to trade targets Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Kemp, according to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman.

The fact that Seattle didn’t have to trade any of its pitchers, including veteran Hisashi Iwakuma or top young arms righty Taijuan Walker or lefty James Paxton, allows the team to keep its dominant staff intact, with Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez leading the way.

That’s only going to help the M’s in their quest to end this 13-year postseason drought.

Seattle’s team ERA last season was 3.17, ranking second-best in baseball, behind only the Washington Nationals (3.03).

Offense, on the other hand, has long been a problem. The Mariners scored 634 runs in 2014, the 12th-lowest total in the sport. That was the club’s highest finish since it placed 12th back in 2007.

In the six years in between, Seattle ranked no higher than 22nd in runs and had a bottom-five total in five seasons.

One of Seattle’s biggest problem spots in 2014, in particular, was designated hitter, a position that Cruz fills, as Mike Axisa of CBS Sports points out:

Of course, that doesn’t mean Cruz comes without warts.

As Axisa alluded to, he is no longer a reasonable option to play defense, especially at his advancing age and with his injury history.

Then there’s the concern over Cruz’s drop-off in the second half last year. Following a first half in which he hit .287/.353/.570 with 28 homers in 93 games, Cruz batted just .249/.306/.463 with 12 home runs in 66 contests after the break.

The slugger also hasn’t fared all that well at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, which is notoriously tough on right-handed hitters, per Stat Corner. In 204 career plate appearances at his new home field, Cruz owns a .234/.309/.440 line with nine home runs.

The Mariners also forfeit their first-round selection in June by virtue of inking Cruz, who rejected the $15.3 million qualifying offer from the Orioles last month.

Even still, this is a move Seattle almost had to make given all that’s at stake for this franchise in the wake of Cano’s $240 million contract, Seager’s extension and Hernandez being in the prime of his career.

The Mariners and Cruz were the right fit all along, as Paul Casella writes for Sports on Earth: “Cruz is coming off hitting a career-best and major league-leading 40 home runs this past season. The Mariners, meanwhile, hit fewer home runs against left-handed pitchers than any team in the [AL].”

And as competitive as the AL West was in 2014, it also appears to be a division in flux this winter, which is a good thing for Seattle.

The Los Angeles Angels finished with the best record in baseball (98-64), and their offense remains dangerous, but the pitching staff is much less so. Young righty Garrett Richards is still recovering from knee surgery, and southpaw Tyler Skaggs will miss all of 2015 after Tommy John surgery.

The Athletics have had an odd offseason so far, signing Billy Butler but then trading away Josh Donaldson, their best player, on Friday. There’s also speculation that right-hander Jeff Samardzija could be on his way out too, according to Heyman.

The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, seem to be stuck in neutral this winter after making major moves, like trading for Prince Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo, last offseason. Thanks to injuries to those two and many others, they finished with the third-worst record in baseball at 67-95.

The Houston Astros, coming off a fourth consecutive 90-plus-loss campaign, aren’t sniffing the playoffs any time soon.

A four-year pact worth nearly $60 million for a player like Cruz, who will turn 35 on July 1, has a performance-enhancing-drug suspension in his recent past and also has significant limitations—both defensively and health-wise—is certainly a risk.

Players with profiles similar to Cruz do tend to go south quickly, so the M’s are hoping that they’ll get one or two healthy, productive years out of this contract before it takes a turn for the worse.

The good news is if Cruz can hit anywhere near the level he did in 2014, there’s a good chance this deal will be worth it for Seattle, no matter what happens in the later years.

That’s the power of simply making it back to October for the first time since 2001.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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Coming off the best season of his MLB career, power-hitting outfielder Nelson Cruz is now in line to net the biggest contract of his life as well.     

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported what he is hearing about Cruz’s next potential deal:

Free-agent slugger Nelson Cruz turned out to be the biggest free-agent bargain in baseball when he hit an MLB-high 40 home runs after signing a one-year, $8 million deal with the Orioles. Now word is, Cruz is very much hoping not to be that sort of a bargain again.

Cruz is seeking a four-year deal at big bucks, according to league sources.

The Orioles, the beneficiary of that great deal last spring, were said to have signalled in talks with Cruz a willingness to give Cruz at least a two-year deal at a big raise in addition to extending the $15.3 million qualifying offer for 2015. However, there’s no indication they are ready to do a four-year deal with the 34-year-old slugger, so it appears Cruz will have to shop around.

Cruz had trouble finding a desirable contract last offseason on the heels of a 50-game suspension for violating the league’s policy against performance-enhancing drugs as a member of the Texas Rangers. With that in mind, he ultimately settled on a one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles.

The 34-year-old star redeemed himself in a major way as he hit .271 with a career-high 40 home runs and 108 RBI in 159 games for the O’s. Cruz was a stalwart in the middle of Baltimore’s lineup and perhaps the biggest reason why it was able to win the AL East and advance to the American League Championship Series.

Following Baltimore’s ouster from the playoffs, Cruz made it clear how much he enjoyed his time as an Oriole:

Whether that was a farewell message remains to be seen, but there is clearly mutual interest from both sides in hammering out a deal. According to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, Cruz’s favorable experience with the Orioles could be beneficial to the organization in its pursuit of him:

At the same time, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com is unsure if the O’s are willing to give the slugger a long-term, big-money contract:

There is no question that Cruz earned a megadeal after having such a huge season in 2014. Someone is undoubtedly going to give it to him, and Cruz’s comments suggest that he is hopeful Baltimore will emerge in that regard.

Orioles general manager Dan Duquette acknowledged Cruz’s importance to the team, but he also remained coy about the organization’s intentions regarding a potential long-term contract, per Luke Jones of WNST.net:

It’s good to know that Nelson likes it here. I can tell just by watching him, he’s the leader of the ball club, and the young players look up to him, especially the young Latin players. He’s an excellent leader, he’s a very good role model, he led the league in home runs, and he had a great year. I really appreciate the veteran leadership that he gave the team. … Having said that, he came here to have a platform year to get himself re-established so he could get a long-term deal, and that’s something that we’ll have to consider.

With Cruz’s PED issues behind him, Cruz is playing better than ever and his status as a clutch playoff performer will bolster his stock as well.

The Dominican stud has career statistics of a .292 average, 16 homers and 34 RBI in 41 career postseason games. Even though the O’s fell short of the World Series, he still managed to hit .357 with two home runs and seven RBI in two series.

MLB teams are always looking for power hitters who can also maintain a respectable batting average, but Cruz’s playoff excellence essentially pushes his value through the roof.

The Orioles displayed great foresight in signing him last offseason, but they’ll have to pony up in order to keep him. If they aren’t willing to, then a long list of other teams certainly will be.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter

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Prior to the 2014 MLB season, hardly anyone would have predicted the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles to be playing for the American League pennant. Now, just four wins separate both teams from the World Series.

How big is Kansas City’s run so far? So huge that the Google search for “Royals” now comes up with more results about Kansas City than Lorde. That’s what a run can do for a team with just four postseason wins.

For Baltimore, it’s facing a team coming off a dominant four-game playoff winning streak and a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels. Even against the gritty Royals, the Orioles have confidence after downing three straight Cy Young winners and the Detroit Tigers.

With Game 1 set to begin Friday night, below is the full schedule and prediction for the American League Championship Series.

ALCS Prediction

When the postseason gets underway, pitching is one of the most crucial components to making a deep run. Both the Orioles and Royals were able to contain potent lineups in the division series, but it’s Kansas City that has the more complete rotation.

The one man at the top is none other than James Shields. Since acquiring Big Game James prior to the 2013 season, he has produced stellar starts nearly every time he’s toed the rubber.

James, who will be the starter in Game 1, according to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star (h/t Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com), went six innings against the Angels in Game 3 of the ALDS, surrendering just two runs on six hits with six strikeouts. More impressively, the bullpen behind him can shut down even high-powered lineups, per MLB Stat of the Day:

If Shields, Yordano Ventura or any other starter falters, the bullpen will be there to pick them up in this series. Equipped with solid arms like Wade Davis and Greg Holland, Kansas City has a massive advantage at the end of games.

On the other side, the Orioles pitching staff is often overlooked in the American League. But after limiting the Tigers to three runs or fewer in two games, they were able to make a statement in the division series.

Chris Tillman and Bud Norris were strong on the mound in Games 1 and 3, respectively, giving Baltimore a chance to pull off two wins. Catcher Caleb Joseph spoke about his battery mates, per Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com:

We know our starters are really good, and they know they’re really good. They’ve really carried us for a long time now. They’re a close-knit group and they do certain things that I know a lot of other teams don’t do. They’re very into each other’s work. They participate in each others’ bullpens and stuff like that. It’s one of the small things that people don’t see behind the lights that’s helped keep them together. If they give us quality starts, we like our chances.

Along with the stout staffs, both teams also have plenty of pop in the lineup. But one man with plenty of experience in the postseason might be the difference for the Orioles in this matchup.

Nelson Cruz has been one of the best playoff power hitters in the MLB over the last several seasons, proving that point again with two homers in the ALDS. ESPN Stats & Info puts his recent numbers in perspective:

Currently, Cruz is tied with Carlos Beltran for ninth all time in postseason homers. With just two more dingers against the Royals, he would move into a tie with Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle for fifth—pretty elite company to say the least.

All things equal, the Orioles lineup will be the difference-maker in this series. Both franchises have proven they can step up in clutch situations, but Baltimore simply has more firepower with Cruz, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones at the plate.

Prediction: Orioles win in six games.

Follow R. Cory Smith on Twitter:

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Now that the MLB season has hit the post-trading deadline stretch, all eyes are on division races, wild-card spots and the excitement of marching toward the postseason.

The Baltimore Orioles are one of the teams that are positioned nicely, currently holding the largest division lead in the league at six games. If the O’s just keep doing what they’re doing, they shouldn’t have to worry about losing their spot atop the AL East.

And while most thoughts are on the postseason, some people are beginning to wonder about players who will become free agents at the end of the season and what will happen to them on the open market.

Of course, the Orioles have players that are due to hit the market this winter, many of which are bigger-name players (Nelson Cruz) and key cogs that have been on the team forever (Nick Markakis).

The team won’t be able to retain every player, and frankly, it may not want to. So let’s take a stab a who won’t be returning to Baltimore for the 2015 season.

Begin Slideshow

After an 18-year career in the majors, Johnny Damon feels he was forced to leave the game of baseball before he was ready to hang up the spikes. The reason for that, according to Damon, is because he never used performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs).

In an interview with 810 CBS Sports, the 40-year-old was asked to consider his place in baseball history. In addition to the stats and the accolades, Damon said the following should be considered:

I played it clean. That’s what everybody’s going to be looking at. I think I’m one of the only players to come out and say, “I guarantee you there is nothing I’ve done that enhanced my baseball career.”

Over the course of those 18 years, Damon played with a handful of notable players tied to PED use. To name a few: Manny Ramirez, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Andy Pettitte, David Ortiz, Roger Clemens, Magglio Ordonez and Gary Sheffield. 

He makes an interesting case for his enshrinement amongst baseball’s greats. With 2,769 hits, a .284 average, 1,139 RBI and two World Series championships (2004 and 2009), Damon certainly had an above-average career with the Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Indians. With no evidence or speculation contradicting his claimed cleanliness, he might just have a case for Cooperstown. 

However, that debate is for another day. The rest of the interview was far more notable and worth talking about, as Damon looked at more than his own career, focusing on some of the problems with Major League Baseball as the game tries to move past the PED era:

The game today, it’s a slap on the wrist for people, and it sends a bad message to kids, the families. You can’t fault someone who has a chance to make $20 million, $50 million, $100 million for going against the system to get to where they are. You can’t fault them.

There are certain guys who cheated the system and they’re still being patted on the back. That’s not great for our kids, especially my son. He’s playing high school baseball now and these kids are very influenced, and if you tell a kid, “You do something and you’re going to have a chance to make $100 million,” people are going to sign up.

I don’t want my son or anybody else’s kid to get involved with it. But it seems like Major League Baseball is allowing it.

Now, who might Damon be talking about? Who fits that mold of getting a slap on the wrist for cheating the system? A few players come to mind, including Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz and Melky Cabrera.

After being suspended 50 games in 2013 as part of the Biogenesis scandal, Peralta signed a lavish four-year, $53 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals this past winter. Cruz, who was also suspended as a part of the scandal, signed a more modest but still generous one-year, $8 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. And after being suspended 50 games as a member of the 2012 San Francisco Giants, Cabrera agreed to a two-year, $16 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

These players cheated the game, yet following their suspensions, they were welcomed back with open arms and millions of dollars. Damon is right—that does send a bad, bad message, especially to youth ballplayers.

Two of those guys came back to make an average annual salary of $8 million, while the other, Peralta, got over $13 million a year. In what other profession can you break the rules and hurt your organization, yet somehow get such a grand reward? 

Any young ballplayer, whether he be in high school, college, the minors or the 25th man on the big league roster, is looking at these cases and thinking, “Hey, this (PEDs) is worth it. Even if I get in trouble, I’m going to get paid. I could make millions.”

This, as Damon said, is something Major League Baseball needs to look at. The league needs to strengthen its substance-abuse policy, because as much as it says it cares about cleaning up the game, the way Damon and so many others see it, it’s still beneficial for players to cheat. The consequences have yet to outweigh the rewards.

That means going beyond suspensions and public shaming and hitting players where it hurts, their pockets. One way to do this that frequently comes up is to limit suspended players to a certain salary, say the league minimum, come their next free-agent contract. It’s a great idea, one that would truly make players pay for their actions and would tell other players to stay clear of PEDs.

The problem with this is that the player’s union would never agree to it, because, well, there are still cheaters out there. Those cheaters want to get paid if they get caught, just like Peralta, Cruz and Cabrera did.

The best option available, as far as cleaning up the game goes, is for the league, its teams and its players (the clean ones) to take a moral stand against PED use. Back in November the Arizona Diamondbacks made headlines for their tendency to avoid players with ties to PEDs.

Arizona’s Brad Ziegler made his personal thoughts known as well following the Peralta signing:

This is what Major League Baseball needs. More players, active ones, have to come out and shame those who disparage the game of baseball. More teams have to refuse to bring these guys aboard. The suspensions do no good if teams are still lining up to pay the cheaters.

Damon is on to something here. Baseball is sending mixed messages about the pitfalls of PED use. Getting caught is not teaching players the lesson the league wants them to learn. It’s time the MLB as a whole got on the same page and started sending the right message.

There can be no reward for cheating the game.

All stats were obtained via Baseball-Reference.

Question or comments? Feel free to follow me on Twitter @GPhillips2727 to talk the Yankees and Major League Baseball.

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In years past, the New York Mets have been notorious for making deals that don’t pan out. While it’s still too early to determine whether Chris Young and Curtis Granderson will have a big impact for the team, one thing is for sure—they haven’t put up the numbers Nelson Cruz has so far in 2014.

Cruz, who was on the Mets radar during the offseason was passed up on—to many fans dismay. Fans felt that being a proven star in previous years with the Texas Rangers would merit a signing from the New York franchise. But it was not to be, as is the case with the Mets in previous years.

If you recall, when Jason Bay was signed, Matt Holliday was an option on the table. Both had put up big numbers in the previous year and, at the time, deserved similar money.

Ultimately, Holliday chose to stay with the St. Louis Cardinals regardless, but both men were thought to have the same potential. Holliday, who still plays for the team, would go on to be an All-Star-caliber player, hitting at least .300 or close to it in all four years. On the other hand, Bay would go on to be one of the biggest busts in franchise history.

This is not to say the Mets could have known what the result of Bay’s contract would be, but the club always seems to be in a similar situation with these types of deals. A bad contract is dished out, and the team is stuck with a player for several years.

And here we are again; the circumstances feel all too familiar—like deja vu. The Mets passed up Cruz for Granderson and Young; the results haven’t been pretty thus far.

Cruz is posting some remarkable numbers, batting .282 with 14 home runs and 41 RBI.  He ranks second in the American League in home runs and shows no signs of slowing down.

Granderson is hitting a meager .206, with six home runs and 20 RBI. Additionally, he’s been a strikeout victim far too often, as he has accumulated 48 in 155 at-bats. Additionally, Young hasn’t performed up to his potential either, as he has been seemingly lost at the plate. Young is currently batting .206 with three home runs and 11 RBI.

Granderson was a more understandable signing for the team because some of the tremendous numbers he put up with the New York Yankees. However, the fact that the Mets could have picked up Cruz for virtually the same price as Young still has fans puzzled.

Though initially Cruz asked for more money and years than his current deal, a bigger contract might have also been worth the money for a hitter who had shown he was reliable in years past. The Mets could have been more patient on the market and saved the money for when the season grew closer to get Cruz or even Stephen Drew.

Looking at Young’s stats in years past compared to what Cruz has done seemed like a no-brainer. Mets GM Sandy Alderson has to do a better job of evaluating talent for his ballclub.

Young’s numbers in 2013 with the Oakland Athletics were below par. He hit .200, with 12 home runs and 40 RBI over 107 games. On the contrary, Cruz hit .266, with 27 home runs and 76 RBI over 109 games in the 2013 season.

Both have almost identical contracts, with Cruz making $8 million for one season and Young making $7.25 million.

Young in years past has never hit over .260 and is a very streaky hitter. He has shown decent power, but it has hardly been enough to elicit a contract worth $7.25 million. On a positive note, if he continues to struggle at the plate, the contract is only for the 2014 season. 

On the other hand, Cruz has been one of the better power hitters in the league since 2009 and has held a steady batting average through that time. Perhaps the downside and maybe the Mets took this into consideration, was the fact that he was suspended for using PEDs last year. This could have factored into their decision for not picking up the 33-year-old from the Dominican Republic.

The Mets did need to make a splash in the offseason to please the fanbase, which they did. But for fans it always feels like the team is doing a cannonball into the wrong pool—not getting the best players it possibly could.

The organization needs to thoroughly mull these offseason decisions over and make better choices with its contracts. Even the casual fan could have known that signing Cruz would have been the better option over Young. But for a team that constantly makes the same mistakes with player contracts, it comes as no surprise.

Stats are courtesy of BaseballReference.com and MLB.com.                                                       

Follow Evan on Twitter @Emoneyball22.

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