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In a little over a month, pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa, Florida, for the New York Yankees‘ spring training. Manager Joe Girardi is already figuring out how he’ll shuffle around the pitching staff and starting lineup.

Despite the fact Aroldis Chapman posted sub-2.00 earned run averages in 2014 and 2015, his arrival all but blocked Dellin Betances‘ path to the closer role. Girardi confirmed Monday that Chapman will have first crack at ninth-inning duties, per the team’s Twitter account:    

The move makes a lot of sense. Chapman was the Cincinnati Reds‘ closer for the last four years, while Betances finished 28 games in 152 appearances in the majors. Just as Chapman could struggle a bit in a setup role, there’s no guarantee Betances‘ dominance would regularly carry over into the final inning.

The only variable is whether Chapman will actually be available on Opening Day. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported MLB will likely rule on any possible suspension for the left-handed fireballer before March 1 after he was allegedly involved in a domestic incident with his girlfriend. Unless Chapman is officially suspended, he should be considered the Yankees’ closer.

Girardi also provided a few more personnel updates, including what Alex Rodriguez‘s role will be and how often the team plans on using the recently acquired Aaron Hicks, per Jack Curry of YES Network:

The news about A-Rod is hardly a revelation. According to Baseball-Reference.com, all but six of his appearances last year came at designated hitter. Barring an injury to Mark Teixeira or Chase Headley, Rodriguez should be kept away from first and third base.

The departure of the player sent packing in return for Hicks—John Ryan Murphy—opened up a spot at catcher, so Yankees fans will be happy to see Girardi will at least take a good look at Gary Sanchez. Baseball Prospectus rated the 23-year-old catcher the third-best player in the team’s system.

In 93 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Sanchez hit .274 with 18 home runs and 62 runs batted in.

Calling up Sanchez to the majors would allow New York to lessen Brian McCann’s workload behind the plate in 2016. If Girardi is willing to give Sanchez enough time this spring, he should prove himself worthy of a roster spot on Opening Day.

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For most of the last two years, the New York Yankees specialized in acquisitions that were anything but flashy. Many were useful and some were surprisingly good, but none of them screamed, “Look at us!”

Trading for Aroldis Chapman did. That’s a Yankee move.

He’s the type of player you expect them to get, and the over-the-top bullpen of Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances is exactly what you expect the Yankees to assemble. Hey, did you hear that they had three of the four highest strikeout rates in baseball in 2015?

Did you hear Chapman throws harder than anyone?

Of course you did. You heard no one else has an endgame like the Yankees do now. You heard the Yankees might turn nine-inning games into six-inning games.

Here’s what you also should have heard: The bullpen wasn’t the problem the Yankees needed to fix.

After the Yankees acquired Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds on Dec. 28, WFAN’s Sweeny Murti tweeted the following:

In other words, the Yankees were already really good at closing out games, with guys like Justin Wilson and Adam Warren in front of Miller and Betances. In fact, they were 51-23 in games in which Wilson pitched.

They don’t have Wilson anymore, as they traded him to the Detroit Tigers for two minor league pitchers. They don’t have Warren anymore after trading him to the Chicago Cubs for second baseman Starlin Castro.

So if you want to say Chapman gives the Yankees a deeper bullpen, that’s not exactly true.

That’s not to minimize how good Chapman is. It’s not even to say the Yankees made a mistake in agreeing to the cut-rate deal the Reds offered because of Chapman’s much-publicized domestic-violence issues.

While it’s still not clear how long a suspension Chapman will face, if any, it’s abundantly clear he would have cost a team big prospects if the off-field issues didn’t exist.

Chapman is very good, and he’s going to be very exciting to watch. And he gives the Yankees some of what the Kansas City Royals had when they went to the last two World Series. Deep bullpens with guys who miss bats are in vogue now, and no team has three guys who miss bats like the Yankee trio does.

In fact, pitchers like that are seen to have so much value that some rival scouts still think of the Chapman acquisition as one that will set up the Yankees to trade Miller later this winter or some time next summer.

“[Yankees general manager Brian] Cashman is going to be holding the joker that everyone else will want,” one scout said.

Cashman says his intent is to keep Chapman, Miller and Betances, and I tend to believe he will. He seems to believe the big bullpen will give him a team that can end the Yankees’ three-year drought without a postseason win.

I’m not so sure.

The Yankees could win if the starting rotation can hold up. Having Chapman might allow manager Joe Girardi to avoid wearing out Miller and Betances, but only if the starters hold up at least as well as they did last summer. The Yankees were 21st in starters innings in 2015, and that was with CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Masahiro Tanaka holding up for a combined 107 starts (and with Warren starting 17 times).

There’s reason for concern with every one of those starters for 2016, and the main hope for improvement is that 21-year-old Luis Severino can pitch as well in his first full season as he did in his 11-start rookie cameo.

But let’s say the rotation holds up. Let’s say Chapman, Miller and Betances make the Yankees so invincible when they get a lead after six innings that they don’t even lose the three games they lost that way last year.

Fine, but tell me Alex Rodriguez is going to provide what he did in 2015, now that he’s going to start a season at 40 and finish it at 41. For all Cashman’s efforts to make the Yankee roster younger, he’s still counting on a lineup in which all the key guys are on the wrong side of 30.

His unflashy additions have often worked out, some (Didi Gregorius) better than others (Chase Headley, Stephen Drew). Perhaps the unflashy moves from this winter (Castro, outfielder Aaron Hicks) will prove to be good ones.

If not, Chapman will be for the Yankees just what he was for the Reds: fun to watch, but home in October.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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What? Did you think the New York Yankees were going to steer clear of star players all winter?

Guess again, friend. The Yankees have gone and acquired a rather big star. In so doing, they have set their immediate future up for quite a bit of intrigue.

As Jack Curry of the YES Network was first to report, the Yankees struck a deal with the Cincinnati Reds on Monday to acquire flame-throwing relief ace Aroldis Chapman. Per the Yankees’ Twitter, here’s the full deal:

Before this, the biggest move the Yankees had made this winter was a roll-of-the-dice trade on the ever-unpredictable Starlin Castro. Suffice it to say, this trade is a bit bigger than that one.

It is, though, also something of a dice roll in its own right.

The elephant in the room here is the alleged domestic violence incident that Chapman was involved in back in October. As Jeff Passan and Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported, the alleged details involve Chapman choking his girlfriend and firing a gun in anger. MLB‘s investigation into the matter could still lead to a suspension for the 27-year-old left-hander.

That and the bad public relations surrounding the situation were enough to scare the Los Angeles Dodgers away from an agreed-upon trade with the Reds. It was also apparently enough to lower Chapman’s trade value.

But for the Yankees, this is obviously the bright spot. The Yankees can expect to face criticism—and not unwarranted criticism, mind you—for welcoming Chapman with open arms while he’s tied to such a hot-button controversy, but it’s frankly hard to say they’re making a mistake.

MLB.com’s rankings state that the Yankees are not giving up any of their top five prospects for Chapman, which makes the package they’re paying look laughable relative to those paid for fellow relief aces Ken Giles and Craig Kimbrel this winter. And though we don’t know what the Dodgers were going to trade for Chapman, Craig Edwards of FanGraphs is right to speculate it wouldn’t have been this mediocre.

If Chapman isn’t suspended, the Yankees will have paid a small price for a full season of his services. If he is suspended, they could actually come out even more ahead in the long run. A small suspension will only sideline him for a portion of 2016. As Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports pointed out, a longer suspension could delay Chapman’s free agency until after 2017.

In other words: This is a questionable PR move for the Yankees but also a strong baseball trade. The only unknown now is where they go from here, and the two possible directions they can go in are both appealing.

Door No. 1 involves the Yankees simply adding Chapman to what they already have in their bullpen and going from there. At this, please try to contain your excitement. 

What the Yankees already had in their bullpen, of course, was right-hander Dellin Betances and left-hander Andrew Miller. They combined for a 1.74 ERA and 231 strikeouts in 145.2 innings in 2015, making them the most dominant duo of relievers in the sport.

And now along comes Chapman. Using a steady stream of triple-digit fastballs and wipeout sliders, all he’s done since becoming a full-time closer in 2012 is post a 1.90 ERA in 255 appearances, striking out a staggering 16.1 batters per nine innings along the way. 

With Chapman in the same bullpen as Betances and Miller, whether the Yankees’ bullpen now boasts the best trio of relievers in baseball history is a fair question to ask. At the least, this note from MLB.com’s Andrew Simon makes it clear that the Yankees have the modern game’s three most overpowering relievers all under one roof:

This is where it’s hard not to think of the Kansas City Royals and all the success they’ve enjoyed with a three-headed bullpen monster over the last two seasons. And though the Yankees’ roster isn’t as complete or well-balanced as the Royals’, there’s no question they’re going to be able to shorten games as well as the Royals have been able to.

According to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, that’s the whole idea for now. But as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported, Cashman is also open to Door No. 2:

To anyone who’s been paying close attention to the winter rumor mill, the idea of the Yankees trading Miller shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Of all the ways the Yankees could shed some payroll, trading Miller and the $27 million remaining over the three years left on his contract is arguably the only one within reach. He’s also one of the only established players they have who could bring back something of value in a trade.

For example, a starting pitcher. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that trading Miller for a starter has been on the club’s mind, and that makes sense. The Yankees’ rotation has talent, but depth is needed to account for the question marks hanging over Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia.

But then, it’s not a given that the Yankees would target a starting pitcher in a trade involving Miller. According to Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York, Cashman believes his rotation is “full.” One therefore wonders if he’d only move Miller to fill another need, such as an outfield upgrade.

Wherever Cashman decides to go from here, it’ll be hard for him to make his trade for Chapman look like a bad baseball move. It may be a questionable move from a PR perspective, but the Yankees are either getting a truly epic bullpen or a more complete team out of it.

If you were waiting for the Yankees to do something a little bolder this winter, well, there you go.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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At one point, closer Aroldis Chapman appeared destined for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Investigations into an alleged domestic violence incident, however, squashed those plans and forced the Cincinnati Reds to pivot.

Now, Chapman is headed to the New York Yankees in a trade first reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Jack Curry of YES Network reported the Reds will get four minor leaguers in exchange for Chapman, but it won’t be any of Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo and Gary Sanchez.

Rosenthal reported the Marlins were also after Chapman, but that the Reds preferred the Yankees’ offer.

Chapman, a four-time All-Star, was previously viewed as one of the most attractive trade chips on the market. His alleged legal troubles, however, made him a harder sell to prospective buyers. 

As Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown and Jeff Passan reported on Dec. 7, “Chapman allegedly fired eight gunshots in the garage of his Miami-area home following an October argument with his girlfriend in which she told police he ‘choked’ her and pushed her against a wall.” According to their report, “word of the incident held up the [Dodgers] deal.”

Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi noted not all teams were dissuaded from dealing for Chapman despite the looming threat of a possible suspension. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the Yankees “do anticipate that Chapman will deal with some kind of suspension.”

Despite a potential ban, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters he feels the team has “done [its] due diligence to the best of [its] abilities.”

If Chapman is suspended, that time won’t count toward his MLB service, per Rosenthal and Morosi. As a result, the acquiring party could gain an extra year of team control out of the deal. At present, Chapman is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2017, per Spotrac.

Parting with Chapman has always made sense for the Reds. Cincinnati is ready to engage in a rebuild, and the team doesn’t need a high-quality closer if it knows losses are likely in the near future. 

“We’re in a tough division,” Walt Jocketty, the Reds’ president of baseball operations, said in November, according to Rosenthal. “We’ve got to be realistic about it.”

Chapman has topped 30 saves in each of the last four seasons. During the 2015 campaign, Chapman finished with the eighth-most saves (33) in the National League. Among closers who tallied at least 20 saves in the Senior Circuit last season, Chapman was by far the most prolific from a strikeout standpoint. 

In 65 games, Chapman whiffed 116 batters to finish with a staggering rate of 15.7 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

The 27-year-old boasts a devastating fastball-slider combination, and he is one of the most dominant bullpen arms in baseball.

Dealing for him at this stage of his career carries risk, however. Not only is Chapman facing the likelihood of discipline from the league, but he’ll soon be a free agent. And once he hits the open market, he’ll command gobs of cash. 

That said, Chapman’s talent is unique enough to splurge on—even if he is just a short-term rental. He figures to help a team that ranked 17th in ERA this past season at 4.05.

Although Andrew Miller did well for New York last year in converting 36 of his 38 save opportunities in 2015, he has been the subject of trade rumors. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier in December that the Dodgers and Houston Astros were interested in him. It will be interesting to see what Miller’s future holds with Chapman’s arrival.

Commendable as Miller’s efforts have been, the Yankees haven’t had a closer of Chapman’s ability since the legendary Mariano Rivera. It’s quite a standard to live up to, but Chapman certainly has the physical tools to go down in New York lore.

But that’s a bold assumption to make, considering he could be out of the Big Apple after only one year. Chapman must put his recent off-field issues behind him and prove himself promptly to secure a future with baseball’s winningest franchise.

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Are you sitting there wondering why the New York Yankees haven’t seemed interested in building for 2016 this winter?

Here’s a potential spoiler: It might be because they have their eyes on what’s coming after 2018.

It’s not because the Yankees don’t have needs in the here and now. They snagged some outfield depth and a solid second baseman in trades for Aaron Hicks and Starlin Castro, but those don’t look like substantial upgrades for a roster that won just 87 games in 2015. At the least, more starting pitching depth would be good.

Based on the Yankees’ silence to this point, though, they’re in no hurry to dive into an open market that still features plenty of quality starting pitching and, indeed, good depth overall. And this silence may not be a ruse.

“There’s a reason they haven’t been attached to any big free agent,” an anonymous executive told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News at the winter meetings. “They’re not in on them.”

Besides, it’s not like the Yankees have a ton of money to spend. Between the $190 million in guaranteed money and about $20 million in projected arbitration payouts, per MLB Trade Rumors, their 2016 payroll is already slated to be in the ballpark of this year’s $217.8 million opening figure.

Mind you, the Yankees do have it in them to eclipse that figure. If they choose not to, one fair criticism to lob at them will be that they missed out on arguably the best class of free agents in MLB history.

What the Yankees may be thinking, however, is that this winter’s free-agent class is a mere little league roster compared to what will be out there in three years.

We knew coming into this offseason that the winter market would have a lot to offer. David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto gave the market four ace pitchers, and Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon and Chris Davis were the cream of the position-player crop.

Next to what’s going to be out there after 2018, though, that’s a collection of talent we can disregard with a “meh.”

As Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com and others have pointed out, the 2018-19 free-agent class is going to be loaded. Loaded as in L-O-A-D-E-D. Slated to be available are…

• Three MVPs: Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson and Andrew McCutchen
• One Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel
• Additional Amazing Bats: Manny Machado, A.J. Pollock, Michael Brantley, Dee Gordon, Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, Hunter Pence and Adrian Gonzalez
• Additional Amazing Aces: Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller, Garrett Richards, Jose Quintana and Adam Wainwright
• Amazing Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Trevor Rosenthal, Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and David Robertson

“That’s decent talent,” one general manager told Castrovince, presumably with his tongue firmly in his cheek. “That’s a good year.”

That’s one way to put it. And all this is without considering two other players who could hit the market via opt-out clauses: Clayton Kershaw and Price.

So, yeah. This winter’s free-agent class may be the best baseball has ever seen, but it figures to hold on to that title only as long as Mark McGwire held on to his title as baseball’s single-season home run king.

Now, are all of the aforementioned players going to hit free agency? Presumably not, no.

Rest assured, there will be contract extensions. Teams haven’t been afraid to offer them, and players haven’t minded accepting them. They could wait for a bigger payday in free agency, but the lure of instant and long-lasting financial security has proved to be too powerful for many players to pass up in recent years.

As such, it’s no wonder Yankees general manager Brian Cashman doesn’t want to make any promises.

“You can’t predict free agency multiple years out. I can’t project availability,” said Cashman, per Chad Jennings of LoHud Yankees Blog. He then added: “It’s such a guessing game when you go through that process that far out to forecast.”

Still, it doesn’t take a leap to predict that most of the aforementioned players will hit the open market three years from now. And though Cashman may not want to say he’s gearing up for the 2018-2019 offseason, his actions suggest otherwise.

Those go beyond refusing to spend big bucks in free agency this winter. There’s also how Cashman has refused to part with any of his top young players—namely Luis Severino, Greg Bird and Aaron Judge—in trades in recent years. He was especially adamant about holding on to them this summer.

“We tried to match up where it didn’t involve the [Aaron] Judges, the [Luis] Severinos and the [Greg] Birds,” said Cashman of the summer trade market, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. “Every offer we made that didn’t involve those players wasn’t good enough.”

In retrospect, the Yankees’ inaction on the summer trade market likely played a role in the club’s disappointing finish to an otherwise solid season in 2015. But that inaction was consistent with the club’s stated goal of getting younger and more athletic. That’s something the Yankees haven’t been in some time, and it’s definitely the right idea in today’s MLB.

Assuming the Yankees stick to their guns on this front, they will look to further establish Severino and Bird alongside guys like Castro and Didi Gregorius in the coming seasons, and the team will eventually call on Judge to join the fray. In time, the Yankees will have the young core they seek.

And three years from now, they’ll get their chance to use free agency to build around it.

The Yankees have spent much of the last decade bogged down by expensive contracts, but that’s not going to be the case come the 2018-2019 offseason. They only have $57 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2019, at which point they will be free of Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia and could also be free of Brett Gardner and Brian McCann.

That’s obviously well short of what we know the Yankees can spend. Just as important is where the luxury tax threshold figures to be. It’s at $189 million now, and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports figures it could be “quite a bit higher” in 2018.

As such, a rough estimate for how much money the Yankees will be able to spend on the open market is something like $150 million. That’s plenty by, um, plenty, and it’s not hard to imagine how the Yankees could put it to use.

Harper is obviously the big target, and he would make sense for the Yankees on multiple levels. He’d only be coming off his age-25 season, he has a swing perfectly suited for Yankee Stadium, and, as a simple Google search can tell you, he’s pretty much destined to be a Yankee anyway.

Of course, Harper wouldn’t come cheap. There’s talk of him becoming not just baseball’s first $400 million player but perhaps baseball’s first $500 million player. Joe Posnanski of NBC Sports didn’t have to do much complicated math to arrive at that figure.

But, hey, a $500 million contract spread out over 10 years would be “only” $50 million per year. That would be only about one-third of the Yankees’ 2018-2019 spending money, so there would be room for additional purchases.

Those could include Machado and Fernandez, who will also be coming off their age-25 seasons. Or, the Yankees could settle for any number of alternative combinations (Harvey and Pollock, Keuchel and Brantley, etc.) and still possibly have room for one of the market’s top relievers and a veteran bat to help tie things together.

The possibilities are endless, really, and that’s kind of the whole point.

You can argue that the Yankees should be pressing their advantage this offseason, but it’s hard to fault them for playing the long game. They’re overdue for a core of young, talented players, and the money saved in establishing one of those could pay off in a huge way when the open market gets an epic free-agent class in 2018.

The Yankees haven’t come out and said that this is their plan. But it sure seems like it is, and it sure seems like a good idea.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract data courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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The New York Yankees have taken a second base situation that impressed nobody and have addressed it with a trade that doesn’t seem to be satisfying everybody.

But if you’re among those who are on the fence, rest assured. The Yankees have had worse ideas.

If you’re just now joining us, the Yankees acquired second baseman Starlin Castro in a trade with the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the deal in the wake of Chicago’s signing of veteran utility man Ben Zobrist, and the team confirmed it shortly thereafter.

Alongside Adam Warren, the player to be named later in the deal is veteran infielder Brendan Ryan, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. He was most certainly expendable. But after Warren did such a fine job in a swingman role in 2015, his expendability is up for debate.

In the meantime, the Yankees are getting a 25-year-old with a track record that features triumph and frustration in roughly equal measure.

There’s the good, which is that Castro is a three-time All-Star with a .281 career batting average. And there’s the bad, which is that Castro has been a subpar hitter in two of the last three seasons and has generally been about as up-and-down as a human pogo stick his entire career.

Which player are the Yankees going to get? It’s hard to say, frankly. But we can give them this much credit: They’re not wrong for wanting to find out.

You know what’s important in this situation? Context. Only context can tell us that even if Castro doesn’t improve the Yankees’ situation at second base, it’ll be hard for him to make it any worse.

Ever since Robinson Cano followed the smell of coffee and cash to Seattle two winters ago, things have been pretty rough for the Yankees at second base. According to FanGraphs, Yankees second basemen rank 29th in MLB in wins above replacement over the last two seasons. Gross.

Another important bit of context is what Castro means for the Yankees from a bigger-picture perspective. They’ve been trying to get cheaper, younger and more athletic. Call it a mission statement, one that Yankees president Randy Levine repeated mere hours before the Castro trade went down.

“I think at the end of the day, this is becoming a young players’ game, and I think it’s important to recognize that,” Levine said Tuesday afternoon, via Brian Heyman of Newsday. “I think that it’s been shown that you don’t need a $200-million payroll to win because I believe, except for us in 2009, nobody’s come close to that.”

As a middle infielder who’s only heading into his age-26 season, Castro is plenty young and athletic. And with roughly $40 million owed to him over the next four seasons, he’s not outrageously expensive.

Ergo, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman saying (via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) Castro “fills our needs at second base and our vision moving forward.”

Of course, where this notion goes out on a bit of a limb is the reality that Castro is a recent convert to second base. He’s a shortstop by trade and has only been playing second base on a regular basis since Cubs skipper Joe Maddon moved him there in August 2015.

The experiment went pretty well, though. Castro played what the advanced metrics rated as passable defense, and his bat caught fire to the tune of a .353 average and .968 OPS over his final 44 games.

As we discussed a few weeks ago, there are tangible explanations for Castro’s hot finish. He started making contact much more frequently, and pretty good contact to boot:

Maddon attributed Castro’s hot hitting to an improved focus on the moment. Also, Matt Goldman of Beyond the Box Score highlighted a mechanical adjustment that erased one of Castro’s big weaknesses at the plate. If he holds on to these changes, maybe his hot finish will prove to be something.

But lest anyone get too excited, said hot finish is best taken with a few grains of salt.

Castro was definitely good the last time he was on the field, but not over a particularly large sample size. Certainly not large enough to completely overrule the rest of his track record, anyway.

And as far as that goes, Castro’s inconsistent results are just what’s on the surface.

On defense, Castro has long been plagued by mental and physical lapses that have dragged down his ratings. On offense, he’s an aggressive swinger who doesn’t take enough walks or hit for enough power to justify his good-not-great contact habit.

Given all this, it must be understood that the Yankees’ deal for Castro is not a sure thing. It’s an upside play. And as I proposed a few weeks ago, it arguably made more sense for the Yankees to simply let Rob Refsnyder be their upside play at second base. Maybe he didn’t offer as much reward, but he certainly offered less risk.

Even still, this is not a time for ranting and raving.

After all, there is no denying that the Yankees are fulfilling their desire to get younger and more athletic with this trade. And though there’s more risk involved in rolling the dice on Castro than there would have been with Refsnyder, at least the Yankees minimized the risk.

They’re not going to miss Ryan. And though Warren was an underrated asset in 2015, the Yankees didn’t necessarily have a role for him. He didn’t have a home in their 2016 starting rotation, and as such, he would have been slotted for long relief in the bullpen. Rather than let him waste away, the Yankees sold high on him.

As for Castro’s contract, the roughly $40 million he’s owed over the next four years is likely less than they would have had to pay Howie Kendrick or Daniel Murphy in free agency. That’s without even considering the lost draft pick that would have accompanied either one of them. Or the fact that both are on the wrong side of 30.

The Yankees are indeed taking a risk with Castro. If his hot 2015 finish turns out to be more of a blip rather than the start of something big, he’ll go back to being his usual frustrating self. That would inspire a good amount of rabbling.

The potential reward, however, is definitely there. Castro is young and athletic, and the end of 2015 wasn’t the only time he’s ever been good. The Yankees did not pay through the nose to find out if he can be good again in one of their uniforms.

Meet the new second baseman. Maybe not the same as the old second basemen.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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For years, the New York Yankees won the winter the traditional way.

They bought it.

The Yankees are different now, and if you didn’t believe it when they wouldn’t enter the bidding for David Price or Zack Greinke, perhaps you will when you hear (per Joel Sherman of the New York Post) that they never bid on Jeff Samardzija, either. Maybe they’re saving all their money to sign Jason Heyward—but don’t count on it.

No, if the Yankees are going to come out of this week as winter-meetings winners, they’re going to do it the hard way. They’re going to need to be more persistent and more creative.

They’re going to need to convince the Cleveland Indians that they really should trade Carlos Carrasco in some form of deal for Brett Gardner, or—even better—talk Oakland A’s boss Billy Beane out of his pledge not to deal Sonny Gray.

“Sooner or later, he trades everybody,” said one rival executive.

The Toronto Blue Jays got an MVP third baseman because Alex Anthopoulos kept asking and eventually gave Beane what he wanted. Could the Yankees get a potential Cy Young winner if Brian Cashman keeps asking? And if not Gray, what about Jose Fernandez of the Miami Marlins?

Gray or Fernandez would make any team a winter-meetings winner, but what if it really is true that neither will be available this week? What if Cashman decides Shelby Miller isn’t enough of a sure thing to trade his most prized prospects?

Enough of the questions. You came here for answers.

The Yankees didn’t seem to like our last bit of advice, which was to take advantage of the unusually pitching-heavy top of the free-agent market. So this time, we’ll try to keep things a little cheaper.

After all, talk is cheap, right? The suggestion here is for Cashman to do plenty of talking.

Talk to the A’s about Gray, and even if Beane is serious about not moving him now, lay the groundwork for whenever he eventually does move him. Do the same with the Marlins about Fernandez.

Revive the efforts to deal Gardner. Cashman told George A. King III of the Post that it’s now more likely he keeps Gardner and closer Andrew Miller, perhaps because there’s more of a glut on the outfield and reliever markets than there was a month ago. But Gardner’s defensive skills and his ability to play center field should still make him valuable, particularly if the Yankees pay down some of the $38 million remaining on his contract.

The Indians are a natural fit, because they have pitchers the Yankees could use (Carrasco or Danny Salazar) and because with Michael Brantley hurt, they could use an outfielder. But as Nick Cafardo pointed out in Sunday’s Boston Globe, the Los Angeles Angels could really use a left-handed hitting outfielder. New Angels general manager Billy Eppler was Cashman‘s assistant in New York (and seems to love players who excel on defense).

The Yankees could also trade Ivan Nova, especially if they acquire a starting pitcher elsewhere. They could still trade Miller, perhaps to the Houston Astros since they have reportedly lost out on Aroldis Chapman (the Yankees and Astros have talked, according to league sources).

If he does trade Miller—and even if he doesn’t—Cashman will need to add relief pitchers. The Yankees went heavy on bullpen arms last winter, trading for Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve, but by the end of the season, manager Joe Girardi barely seemed to trust anyone but Miller and Dellin Betances.

Adding bullpen help doesn’t even need to be expensive. The Kansas City Royals signed Ryan Madson to a minor league contract last winter, and he pitched so well that he just agreed to a $22 million deal with the A’s (according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com).

You might have noticed that every suggestion so far has involved pitching. The Yankees do have one open spot in their lineup, at second base. They might be able to reacquire Martin Prado, whom they dealt to the Marlins last winter for Nathan Eovaldi, or sign free agent Howie Kendrick, who has a .342 career batting average against them.

A recent report by Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi also links the Yankees to former All-Star Asdrubal Cabrera, though he cites budget concerns as a potential roadblock.

That probably wouldn’t be enough to make the Yankees a winter meetings winner, though. Maybe none of this would be enough—unless the Yankees could somehow come away with Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez.

Keep talking.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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The guy who used to play there isn‘t a realistic option, but the New York Yankees clearly need something at second base. As opposed to the, you know, nothing they’ve gotten out of the position since Robinson Cano left town two years ago.

As far as their options go, it’s obviously a choice between Starlin Castro and Rob Refsnyder. Or so we can pretend, anyway.

Though Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News has reported that the Yankees are unlikely to acquire an upgrade at second base—a position where they rank 29th in fWAR since 2014—he’s also reported that they have interest in acquiring Castro from the Chicago Cubs.

If the Yankees are going to look beyond their borders for a second baseman, Castro makes sense. Though there are options on the free-agent market, Joel Sherman of the New York Post has noted that the Yankees “pretty much have gotten out of the [free agent] game.”

As such, the Yankees will likely stick with what they have if they don’t swing a deal for Castro. That would be a platoon of Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley, with the hope presumably being that the 24-year-old Refsnyder (who will turn 25 in March) will emerge as an everyday regular for the long haul.

Now, we could just trust general manager Brian Cashman to make the right call…but nah. Why do that when we can decide for ourselves?

The Case for Castro

From afar, the Yankees’ goals for the winter seem clear. They’re looking to continue a youth movement without adding too much money to an already bloated payroll.

When considering these two objectives, you get two more reasons why Castro is a logical target.

Though Castro is a six-year MLB veteran, he’s only headed for his age-26 season. He should have several more prime years left, and he’s already locked up for those seasons at reasonable rates. His contract will pay him about $41.5 million through 2019, with a $16 million option for 2020.

And it shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire Castro in a trade. Feinsand‘s report mentioned Brett Gardner as a possible exchange for the Cubs, but that’s asking too much. Castro is coming off his second bad season out of three, so his trade value isn‘t at its peak. The Cubs may need to eat some of Castro’s contract to get anything of substance, and they might just as soon move the whole thing.

But of course, Castro’s diminished trade value is also a complication for the Yankees. He’s a young player with a relatively extensive track record, but it’s hard to know what he’s supposed to be.

When Castro has been good, he’s hit around .300 with solid power. This was the case in his first three seasons between 2010 and 2012, and again in 2014 when he hit .292 with 14 homers and a .777 OPS.

But when Castro has been bad, he’s been really bad. This was the case in 2013 and in 2015, in which he hit in the mid-.200s with a sub-.700 OPS. Add in his characteristically subpar defense, and you essentially get a replacement-level player.

Given all this, a trade for Castro would not be a trade for a predictable commodity. It would be a fingers-crossed, pray-to-the-winds upside play, with the hope being that his most consistent days lie ahead.

Fortunately, that’s where there is a peg on which to hang hopes.

On the whole, Castro’s 2015 was indeed lousy. But he finished it on an extremely strong note, hitting .353 with a .968 OPS in his final 44 games after he was moved from shortstop to second base.

This wasn’t an extended stretch of good luck. Castro earned it, putting more balls in play and generally hitting the ball about as well as he had been in 2014:

Certainly, it helped that Castro was basically being used in a platoon role. But Matt Goldman of Beyond the Box Score noted that a mechanical adjustment at the plate also helped Castro take off, and in general he benefited from adjusting his perspective.

“Right now, [Castro’s] in the present tense, man,” said Cubs skipper Joe Maddon in late September, via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “That’s what we’ve been shooting for. Just to get him to understand the concept of `one,’ and being involved in the moment. And that’s what he’s doing.”

As far as the metrics are concerned, Castro’s newfound focus on the moment didn’t just help him at the plate. Albeit in a small sample size, he rated as a decent defender at second base. 

So, here’s the nutshell: Castro’s career is the ultimate mixed bag, but he’s young, relatively cheap and is coming off an upswing that suggests he could be ready to take off. A trade for him would be the roll of the dice, but the potential payoff is there.

Question is, are the Yankees better off simply rolling the dice on Refsnyder?

The Reasons for Refsnyder

Remember how we noted that Castro is appealing because he’s young, controllable and cheap? Well, that goes double for Refsnyder. 

He’s only heading into his age-25 season, is under club control through 2021, and isn‘t eligible for arbitration until after 2018. He should earn considerably less money in the next six seasons than Castro will in the next four. And because he’s already in house, it takes nothing to acquire him.

So, yeah. Refsnyder is clearly the bargain option. At the least, that means moving forward for him is the best way for the Yankees to maintain payroll flexibility. At best, it means he can provide a far better return on investment in the long run.

The tricky part there, though, is that all we can do at this juncture is guess.

Refsnyder owns a .302 career average and an .859 OPS in the majors, but across only 16 games. That’s far too small of a sample size to draw conclusions from, so it’s what he did in the minors and what’s in the scouting report that still hold the most sway. That’s where there’s good and bad. 

Going into 2015, Refsnyder was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the Yankees’ No. 6 prospect and by Baseball America as the Yankees’ No. 7 prospect. The two publications shared similar concerns, notably that Refsnyder has modest power potential, only average speed and is short of awesome defensively.

This leaves us looking at Refsnyder‘s hit tool, which is fortunately quite good.

His career .290 average and .380 OBP in the minors suggest as much, and that’s not a mirage. MLB.com refers to Refsnyder as the “best pure hitter in New York’s system,” and Baseball America breaks him down like so:

“A short swing and excellent plate discipline help make Refsnyder a strong hitter. He’s balanced at the plate, has good hand-eye coordination and has quick hands that help him catch up to good velocity. He sprays line drives all over the diamond.”

There’s data to back all this up. In his entire pro career, Refsnyder owns an 11.4 BB% and 15.4 K%, a very good balance between walks and strikeouts that reflects his plate discipline and short swing. And thanks to MLB Farm, we can get a solid picture of his all-fields approach:

As for Refsnyder‘s defense, it could be worse. He is a recent convert to the position, after all, and Chris Mitchell of FanGraphs noted this season that Refsnyder‘s defense “isn’t the train wreck it once was.”

As such, there’s hope that Refsnyder can be a high-average hitter who at least holds his own defensively. That’s another way of saying he may have a future as a Daniel Murphy clone.

Which brings us to the nutshell: Refsnyder is much more of an unknown than Castro is, but he’s younger, more controllable and likely cheaper, and he does have the goods to be a consistent regular.

So Then…

Cutting right to the chase, the Yankees should stick with Refsnyder.

They aren’t wrong in having Castro on their radar. They do need an upgrade at second base, and he has the upside to be a major upgrade. Possibly a bigger upgrade than Refsnyder can ever hope to be.

But the risk just isn‘t worth it. 

The Yankees are going to have to give up something to get Castro, and then could be on the hook for roughly $40 million in salary. That’s not a huge cost, but it’s not a small cost either. Especially when compared to Refsnyder, who costs nothing to acquire and who has many cheap years ahead of him.

And though Refsnyder may not have Castro’s upside, he’s a safe bet to at least be a solid regular. His hit tool may be all he has, but a hit tool is a valuable thing. Especially at a time when pitchers have the upper hand like never before.

So, if it seems like the Yankees are lacking a sense of urgency about their second base conundrum, don’t worry. That may be the whole idea.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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A few years back, a general manager of a limited-budget team shook his head while talking about the New York Yankees.

“Sometimes it seems like they’re trying to operate like us,” he said. “If we had their money, we wouldn’t operate like us.”

The Yankees are far from having a limited budget, with a payroll that has exceeded $200 million in seven of the last eight years. While the Dodgers outspent them each of the last two seasons, the Yankees have ranked first or second in total payroll every season since 1994, according to USA Today.

So the GM wasn’t calling the Yankees cheap or frugal. He was just saying some of their decisions on how and when to spend didn’t make a lot of sense.

He could easily have been talking about this winter.

The Yankees, by their own admission, are looking for starting pitching. The free-agent market is unusually deep in starting pitching and even includes at least two legitimate aces (David Price and Zack Greinke).

If you’re going to need starting pitching anytime soon, this is the time to shop. The biggest name available next year is Stephen Strasburg—not exactly a Price or Greinke.

So what are the Yankees doing? By all indications, they’re planning to stay away from the top of the market, and maybe even the whole market. They’re hoping to find value in a starter they can get in a trade, perhaps by unloading the $37.5 million left on Brett Gardner’s contract.

They’re not going to spend big, they say, until they see some of their existing big-money contracts expire. Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran have deals that run out next year, and they’ll be done with CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez the year after.

“A couple years from now, the payroll situation will be different,” Hal Steinbrenner told reporters (including Erik Boland of Newsday) at the owners meetings last week. “I will have flexibility, we will be active on the free-agent market.”

In other words, Hal isn’t willing to spend tomorrow’s money today, even if what’s on sale today won’t necessarily be there tomorrow. Even with a team that has played one postseason game since 2012, he’s willing to be patient.

In a way, that’s admirable. It’s the same way many other franchises operate, with a real budget.

It’s not the way we expect the Steinbrenner Yankees to operate.

Hal isn’t George, though. The goal in the Bronx is still to win the World Series. But under Hal, it’s paired with (or perhaps even secondary to) winning without spending too much.

“All I know is what I’ve always said: I shouldn’t have to have a $200 million payroll to win a world championship,” Steinbrenner told the reporters at the owners meetings. “It’s been proven over and over again.”

The Kansas City Royals spent a little more than half that to win this year’s World Series. The San Francisco Giants never had an Opening Day payroll above $150 million in any of their three championship seasons (but spent $173 million on an 84-78 team that missed the playoffs in 2015).

Under Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees have been trying to do what other (lower-spending) teams do. They’ve embraced analytics and prospects, but without ever retreating so far that they would earn a high draft pick.

Perhaps it will work. The Yankee kids look promising, from 21-year-old pitcher Luis Severino and 23-year-old first baseman Greg Bird (who debuted in 2015) to 22-year-old catcher Gary Sanchez (who impressed scouts in the Arizona Fall League).

If they’re good enough, and if the Yankees can then use their financial power to add some free-agent stars around them, this team can be a powerhouse again. They’ll do it not by imitating everyone else, but by making their own way. They’ll do it with kids, but also with their financial might.

They won’t do it by shying away from opportunity the market provides and trying to operate like a limited-budget team.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball. 

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The New York Yankees need starting pitching. That’s not breaking news, but it’s an undeniable truth.

They can get it by spending on the open market, which would be the classic Yankee Way. Or they could get creative on the trading block, which might be the Yankee Way 2.0.

If they go the trade route, here’s a name the Yanks and general manager Brian Cashman will at least consider dangling: Brett Gardner.

That’s not merely idle speculation. Gardner’s name began popping on the hot stove shortly after the Yankees acquired outfielder Aaron Hicks from the Minnesota Twins for catcher John Ryan Murphy on Nov. 11.

That same day, in fact, the New York Post‘s Joel Sherman reported that the Yankees had “discussed” Gardner with the Seattle Mariners.

“The Yankees,” Sherman wrote, “are particularly looking for high-end starting pitching that they control for seven years because all of their current starters, except Luis Severino and Adam Warren, can be free agents after either the 2016 or 2017 campaign.”

Whether Gardner by himself could fetch such an arm depends on your definition of “high-end.”

The 32-year-old is coming off an All-Star campaign that saw him post a .259/.343/.399 slash line with 16 home runs and 20 stolen bases. In 2010, Gardner put up an impressive 7.3 WAR, per Baseball-Reference.com, and in 2011, he led the American League with 49 steals.

He’s fallen off a bit from that peak. His defense, in particular, has eroded, with his ultimate zone rating (UZR) plummeting from 26.7 in 2011 to minus-2.7 last season, per FanGraphs. Still, he’s been good for at least 3.3 WAR in four of the last five seasons, and he remains a valuable asset for any team seeking a combination of speed, savvy and pop.

And he represents far more than a rental, as he’s inked through 2018 for a relatively affordable $37.5 million, with a team option of $12.5 million for 2019 with a $2 million buyout.

So what kind of pitcher might Gardner fetch in a one-for-one swap? Sherman mentioned 27-year-old Seattle left-hander James Paxton, who posted a 3.90 ERA in 13 starts in 2015 and isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2017.

Here’s another intriguing (and purely speculative) possibility. The San Francisco Giants have a need in left field after declining their club options on veterans Nori Aoki and Marlon Byrd. And while San Francisco is itself in the market for pitching, the Giants might consider dangling 27-year-old sinkerballer Chris Heston for the right return.

Heston threw a no-hitter in June and was in the National League Rookie of the Year conversation before fading in the second half. Again, there’s no indication the Giants are actively shopping him, but as CSN Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic opined, “the trade market may provide the best option” for San Francisco to plug its hole in left.

A pitcher in the Paxton or Heston mold would slot into the Yankees’ plans for next season and help shore up the back end of the rotation.

To land an ace-level stud, however, New York will have to part with more. 

MLB.com’s Richard Justice imagined a package of Gardner and closer Andrew Miller heading to the Washington Nationals in exchange for Stephen Strasburg. Whether the Nats would take that is an open question, but even if they would, Strasburg will be a free agent next winter. 

Instead, New York should look for pitchers with years of control remaining.

The Chicago White Sox’s Chris Sale fits the bill. He’s one of the game’s elite left-handers, and he’s locked into an exceedingly affordable contract through 2017, with team options of $12.5 and $13.5 million for 2018 and 2019.

The Sox don’t have to deal Sale, though general manager Rick Hahn told CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes that he’s “open-minded” and doesn’t “view anyone as being ‘untouchable.'” Still, it’d take a gaudy, kitchen-sink offer. 

Gardner could be included in a deal for Sale—though the Yankees might be required to eat some cash—but the White Sox would also undoubtedly ask for names from the top of New York’s developmental depth chart, including power-hitting outfielder Aaron Judge and speedy shortstop Jorge Mateo.

And if Sale is truly, well, for sale, others with deeper minor league systems—hello, Boston Red Sox—might well snatch him up.

If you’re looking for a club with a wealth of team-controlled starting pitching and a need in the outfield, no one fits the bill better than the Cleveland Indians.

Left fielder Michael Brantley underwent shoulder surgery and could miss the first month of the season, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian noted. And the Tribe’s offense, even with Brantley, is average at best.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is stocked with arms, including 2014 AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, as well as right-handers Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar, all of whom are locked up through 2018 and beyond. 

Again, the Yanks would have to dangle at least a couple of top prospects for the Indians to even pick up the phone. But, as Bastian correctly pointed out, “Starting pitching is the undeniable and enviable strength of Cleveland’s roster, and other clubs know the Indians are not in a position to outbid other teams for an impact bat on the free-agent market.”

If the Yankees are willing to raid their farm, they could build an offer around Gardner that might pry away Carrasco, who fanned 216 hitters in 183.2 innings last year and would immediately challenge Masahiro Tanaka for the title of staff ace.

“With respect to trades, that’s a very difficult question to answer,” Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said, per Bastian. “We have to be open-minded in how we build our team.”

That’s the same mindset Cashman will need as he seeks to bolster a starting corps that finished 19th in baseball with a 4.25 ERA in 2015. Opening the wallet wide is always an option in the Bronx. But the Yankees exercised restraint in free agency last winter, and with so many onerous contracts still on the books, they could repeat that strategy.

If so, expect some trades. And don’t be surprised if Brett Gardner is in the middle of one of them. 

All statistics and contract information current as of Nov. 15 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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