Tag: Nick Markakis

Baltimore Orioles 2012: In Buck We Trust

Heading into the 2012 season there are very few reasons to be excited if you’re an Orioles fan. But to be clear, there are still things to be excited about. 

Lineup

The power supply is certainly in this line-up, even if it’s a tad inconsistent (especially to compete in the AL East). But with Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones  there is certainly some consistency in the top of this order. 

The problem lies in Mark Reynolds (.221), Chris Davis, (.255), and Matt Weiters (.261) driving in those ducks on the pond. 

Even with Reynolds’ 37 home runs, he was one of the least efficient sluggers in baseball (just 86 RBIs), and he continued his streak of leading the league in strikeouts with 196 (only 75 BB). This lineup will have trouble finding consistency if someone can’t become the RBI machine in the 4 spot that they need (Baltimore turns its lonely eyes to you Mr. Wieters). 

Now onto the bad news. (Wow… That was the good news?

 

Rotation

This rotation may be one of the worst in the majors on paper. With Brian Matusz coming off of a dismal year (1-9 with an ERA of 10.69), there does not seem to be anyone ready to pick up the slack. 

Tsuyoshi Wada brings some fresh blood, but the 5’11″ 170lb lefty is 31, and with a career in the Nippon league that was at best, pretty good. I wouldn’t expect him to have a ceiling higher than 10 wins and a 4.75 ERA.

The rest of the rotation consists of youthful arms with upside with no real track record. The most intriguing is former Ranger, Tommy Hunter, who is one year removed from posting 13 wins and a 3.73 ERA. Hunter has the build of an innings eater at 6’3″ 280lbs. With some polishing, he could be the cement this rotation needs.

 

Bullpen

There isn’t a lot to look at in this department, but the few proven arms hanging around the bullpen this season all seem to have something to prove. 

Kevin Gregg is back as the de facto closer. With some success in this role, it’s his job to lose.

As far as who’ll be gunning for Gregg’s job it’ll be between perennial set-up men; lefty Darren O’Day and righty Matt Lindstrom. With Darren O’Day healthy (6-20.88 WHIP in ’10) and Matt Lindstrom a career WHIP machine (1.44) O’Day will be first in line to snatch any save opportunities not slotted for Gregg 

 

Prediction

The Buck Truck had some bright spots last year, even if it was as a spoiler rather than a contender. Buck Showalter will have himself a slightly more confident group to mold in 2012. 

However, they are in a division with Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay, even Toronto has made strides of late (something Baltimore has only done in the uniform department. They are sweet unis though).

Finish71 – 91 (Last Place

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Baltimore Orioles: Buck Showalter Has Birds Playing the Oriole Way

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a 4-0 start for the first time since their wire-to-wire AL East winning season of 1997. This is cause for excitement, O’s fans, and while many say it is too early to conjure up thoughts of the playoffs I say go ahead, think postseason baseball.

If you have watched all four games then you know it is not Orioles magic that is getting it done but the old Oriole Way. In case you forgot what the Oriole way is, it is playing baseball by emphasizing the fundamentals.

When playing the Oriole way, you play good defense, you pitch to your strengths and while you may not have more talent than the team sitting on the other bench, you out work and out hustle them.

You run the bases aggressively and with intelligence while never taking yourself out of an inning because you missed a sign or a base coaches’ instructions.

You also have to depend on timely hitting and make the opposing pitcher work for every strike he gets.

The Orioles perfect start is not a fluke. It is not a byproduct of playing teams that are not as good as the Orioles. The O’s are 4-0 because they have been playing a brand of baseball we have not seen since the late 80’s

Even in the late 90’s when the O’s last made the playoffs, they were made up of high-priced free agents and aging stars.

If you remember, the Oriole Way always began with good pitching and defense first. The last team I remember playing the Oriole Way and making it exciting for the fans was the 1989 “Why Not” team.

Three of the four starters to take the mound so far this year have received victories. The one starter who did not get a W, Chris Tillman, left after pitching six innings of hit-less baseball and arguably pitched the best game of the four starters so far.

Baltimore’s starters have pitched 26 innings and have only allowed two runs. They have walked nine, struck out 20 and have a staff ERA of 0.75. The staff is averaging just 4.22 hits per nine innings to start and each, other than Tillman, has shown a knack for working their way out of trouble. 

Aside from great starting pitching, the bullpen has held their own. While not as good as the starters, Baltimore’s relievers have tossed 10 innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits.

Defense has always been a part of the Oriole way and good defense has been a factor to start this season. The O’s have committed just one error in 169 chances to begin the season and have made a few highlight-reel plays.

Yesterday Felix Pie made a running catch that required him to run a good 50 yards, saving a double or possibly a triple. Nick Markakis’s game saving catch on Saturday night was a play I have seen on highlight shows every night since he made the catch.

The Orioles are solid with speed in the outfield and they have a good hard-nosed, smart bunch of ballplayers on the dirt in the infield.

While the Orioles are not knocking the cover off the ball like the Texas Rangers, they are using timely hitting to win games. They are also running the bases a lot smarter than I have seen in recent years.

The O’s are taking extra bases making their runs stick. Yesterday JJ Hardy took second base after he lined a shot into left field. Brian Roberts hit a three-run home run rendering the aggressive and smart base running unnecessary but it was the kind of play we have not seen consistently in many years at Camden Yards.

Hardy has already hit three doubles and scored four runs from the nine hole and speaking of Brian Roberts, with a pair of three-run dingers this season, he leads the leagues with eight RBI. Nick Markakis seems very comfortable in the No. 2 slot. Markakis is batting .429 to start the season and has been making pitchers work for every strike they throw him.

Keep in mind the heart of the order has yet to produce. Free agents Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee and Mark Reynolds are batting a combined .178 and if you throw Adam Jones into the mix, that drops to a .164 through four games.

It is a long season and these guys will hit just as Roberts, Markakis and Hardy will cool but it is a good sign to be undefeated without your power hitters smacking the ball out of the park.

Baltimore has already matched their longest winning streak from all of last season and if they can win tomorrow night will have matched their longest winning streak in the last two seasons. They will also equal the start of the 1970 Orioles, who went on to win the World Series that year.

I am not saying the Orioles are going to the World Series but remember O’s fans this is not something new. This is an extension of what began last season when Buck Showalter took over 106 games into the 2010 season.

Showalter’s team has yet to trail in four games this season and since he took over last season the O’s are an American League best 38-23.

It was fitting the Orioles honored Earl Weaver yesterday. Current O’s skipper Buck Showalter elected to catch yesterday’s honorary first pitch from legendary O’s skipper Earl Weaver. Showalter then proceeded to watch his team beat the Tigers just as Weaver’s teams used to beat many opponents.

Yesterday and through the first four games, Showalter’s boys have pitched well, played solid defense, run the bases well and let us not forget the O’s (Brian Roberts) have a couple of Weaver’s all-time favorite play, the three-run home run.

Through the last 57 games of the 2010 season and through the first four games this season, Showalter has the O’s executing just like Earl used to have his boys of summer playing.

The Orioles way was a brand of baseball that made Baltimore, not the New York Yankees, the winningest franchise from the mid 60’s through the mid 90’s.

Remember a few years ago when baseball experts said the Tampa Rays could never do it, they could never hold on and win the AL East. This team is capable of winning 90-plus games playing this way.

You get the sense that the Orioles play to win the inning and that is how you win games.

So yes fans, it is OK to get excited about the playoffs because if Buck Showalter can continue to get this team to play the Oriole way, then October will return to Camden Yards.

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Who Is Best Option for O’s Leadoff Hitter Should Brian Roberts Go Down?

Veteran second baseman Brian Roberts was limited to 59 games last season due to a herniated disc in his back. During the time the that he was on the DL, the leadoff hitter role was a revolving door, with no one filling in adequately.

This spring, Roberts has again been having back trouble, spasms that he says are unrelated to the herniated disc that troubled him so much last year, that have limited him to just five games.

Though he played on Sunday after missing some time, and is likely to play today, it still makes Orioles fans uneasy, as Roberts is the offensive spark plug of the team.

Without him on top of that lineup most of the year, it’ll be much more difficult for the O’s to have a successful season, even with the offensive upgrades they made over this past offseason.

So we, as Orioles fans, sit and wonder: If Roberts goes down, will anybody step in to provide a good leadoff option until he’s healthy again?

Enter Nick Markakis.

I know, you probably can’t believe you didn’t think of that before. I couldn’t believe it took me so long, and I’m praying that manager Buck Showalter has the same idea.

Last year, that same idea wouldn’t have worked. The Orioles had a pretty lame middle of the lineup, capitalized by Luke Scott. And as good of a hitter Scott is, he shouldn’t be any good lineup’s No. 4 guy.

It was necessary to keep a hitter like Markakis in the middle of the lineup. Even with his down year, he was still one of the most productive hitters in the lineup, as he always is.

Now that the Orioles added Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero, however, they can afford to move Markakis to the number one slot should it be necessary. He’s already projected to bat second in a pretty stacked lineup (at least on paper), so moving him up one slot works.

Markakis has gotten at least 182 hits in each of the past four seasons, remaining in the top-10 in the AL in hits each of those season, and hasn’t hit lower than .291 during his five-year career, an average that came in his rookie season back in 2006.

He draws the walk, and probably has the best knowledge of the strike zone of any player on the O’s roster, working the count in almost every plate appearance he makes.

The lowest single-season OBP he’s ever had during his career was .347, during his 2009 campaign, which is still a pretty okay number. His career batting average when leading off an inning is .313, and he’s hit lefty pitchers at a .294 clip, which is important due to his batting left-handed. He can hit the ball the other way, something he was forced to do all the time during the 2010 season.

One of the most important things for a leadoff hitter to do is to his the ball into the gap, and Markakis does that better and more consistently than anybody in the league, slapping at least 43 doubles in each of the past four years, becoming just the third player in major-league history to have at least four consecutive 40-plus double seasons. And he can even steal a base once in a while, amassing 43 of them during his career.

With much better lineup protection now, Markakis should be able to rediscover the power stroke he appeared to have lost last year. With more feared hitters in the lineup hitting behind him, he should be getting better pitches to hit, and 15-25 homers from your leadoff hitter is a nice luxury to have.

With moving Markakis up to the leadoff slot, Showalter could move either Adam Jones up to the two hole, where he has thrived throughout his career, albeit a small sample at that batting slot, or J.J. Hardy. It also would give Showalter more flexibility with the three-four-five slots, being able to bat Lee, Guerrero, and Scott in any of those slots without having to worry about back-to-back lefties.

To me, a replacement leadoff hitter couldn’t be more obvious than the one stated and argued for above. No more revolving door of Robert Andino, Jones, Cesar Izturis and anyone else who’s sitting on the bench that happens to be playing that day.

Markakis has been one of the most consistent hitters in the MLB the past five years. Take advantage of that, Buck.

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Fantasy Baseball Bounce-Back Candidate: Can Nick Markakis Put 2010 Behind Him?

Every season we seem to talk about Nick Markakis and his breakout potential—and every season we are sorely disappointed with the results.  While he has always been solid, though unspectacular, the 2010 season was, by far, his worst:

  • 629 At Bats
  • .297 Batting Average (187 Hits)
  • 12 Home Runs
  • 60 RBI
  • 79 Runs
  • 7 Stolen Bases
  • .370 On Base Percentage
  • .436 Slugging Percentage
  • .331 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average was still solid, but after that, is there really anything to get excited about?  Just look at his trends from the prior three seasons:

  • Three straight years of at least 94 R (including a year of 106).
  • Three straight years of at least 87 RBI (including two years of over 100).

The fact that he fell so far in the counting stats is quite worrisome.  Of course, the fact that the Orioles lineup in general was terrible didn’t help things.  The injury to Brian Roberts left the team short at the top, making generating runs a lot more difficult.

In the middle, they didn’t get the expected contributions from their young sluggers like Matt Wieters, just further weakening things.

In 2011, that should certainly be rectified.  Roberts is healthy, at least for now.  The team took a lot of pressure of Markakis and Co. by adding Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee.  In other words, this is a lineup with a lot of pop.

Markakis should slide back as the full-time No. 2 hitter, a role that he fits extremely well.  He has consistently shown great OBP potential (.368 for his career) and extra base power (43 or more doubles each of the past four seasons).  With the major upgrades to the lineup, seeing him return to the days of 90-plus runs seems like a given.

The power was probably the biggest disappointment from 2010.  At this point it seems fair to say that he’s never going to be a top home run hitter, but 12 just doesn’t seem possible.  With all of the doubles we’ve already mentioned, one would think that some of them could start finding their way over the fence.  You also have to look at his HR/FB from last season and expect an improvement:

  • 2006 – 13.1 percent
  • 2007 – 11.6 percent
  • 2008 – 12.6 percent
  • 2009 – 8.0 percent
  • 2010 – 6.1 percent

Are we really supposed to believe that he has just suddenly lost the power potential he showed his first three seasons?  I’m not talking about him developing into a 30 HR hitter, but thinking that he will return to 18-plus is reasonable.  In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him close in on 25, given what he’s shown in the past.

So, we are talking about an outfielder who has consistently proven that he can hit right around .300.  Throw in the potential to score 90-plus runs and hit 20-plus HR and there is a lot to like.  While he doesn’t offer speed and may not top 80 RBI in the No. 2 hole, there is still more than enough to like.

He currently has an ADP of 107.71 according to Mock Draft Central and is the 29th outfielder coming off the board.  That is after guys like Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore and Vernon Wells.  Clearly the value is there, making him a solid selection on draft day.

What are your thoughts on Markakis?  Do you think his current draft spot is a good value?  What type of production do you think is possible in 2011?

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2011 Fantasy Projections No. 95: There’s Still Hope for Nick Markakis’ HR Stroke

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Nick Markakis was perhaps the most disappointing fantasy player last year, totalling just 12 HRs and 60 RBI in a whopping 709 plate appearances.

Oddly enough, he still hit .297.

The former first-round pick has failed to fulfill expectations since his eye-popping sophomore season in 2007 that yielded: 97 runs, 23 HRs, 112 RBI, 18 steals and a .300 average.

In five major league seasons, Markakis has yet to tap into the 30-HR power that scouts once expected him to have. Instead, he’s hit just 20, 18 and 12 bombs in each of the last three seasons, while both his ISO power and HR/FB rate have dropped to below-average totals. 

ISO Power:

  • 2008: .185
  • 2009: .160
  • 2010: .138

To put this into perspective, Jhonny Peralta (.143), Cody Ross (.145), Jose Reyes (.146) and Yuniesky Betancourt (.146) all topped Markakis’ 2010 ISO power. 

HR/FB Rate:

  • 2008: 12.6 percent
  • 2009: 8.0 percent
  • 2010: 6.1 percent

Yet despite this head-scratching power decline in his age-24, 25 and 26 seasons, Markakis has managed to remain fantasy-relevant.

Among qualified batters since 2007, Markakis ranks 18th in runs (94 per season), 19th in batting average (.299) and 24th in RBI (90 per season).

Markakis has also improved his already impressive plate discipline stats.

Strikeout Rate:

  • 2008: 19.0 percent
  • 2009: 15.3 percent
  • 2010: 14.8 percent
  • MLB average: 20.7 percent

Contact Rate:

  • 2008: 84.6 percent
  • 2009: 86.6 percent
  • 2010: 89.9 percent
  • MLB average: 80.7 percent

Swinging Strike Rate:

  • 2008: 6.2 percent
  • 2009: 5.4 percent
  • 2010: 4.1 percent
  • MLB average: 8.5 percent

So, what does this all mean?

Well, despite his power outage, Markakis is still an excellent hitter who is projected to bat second in a loaded Orioles lineup this season.

While it’s obvious he isn’t the 30-HR threat we once thought he was, it’s important to remember he’s just entering his age-27 season—the beginning of his prime years.

I used this example in my profile on Billy Butler, and it applies here as well. Robinson Cano, an excellent contact hitter with relatively low fly-ball rates (just like Markakis) hit for below-average power (14, 15, 19, 14 HRs) in his age-22 through 25 seasons before busting out with 25 and 29 bombs as a 26 and 27-year-old.

Markakis is unlikely to double his 2010 home run total in 2011, but it’s definitely worth mentioning that he’s just now entering his prime.

Even if he only whacks 20 over the fence this year (career average: 18 HRs per year), Markakis will likely push for 100 runs, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average.

 

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 709 79 12 60 7 .297
3-year average 706 93 17 83 8 .298
2011 FBI Forecast 700 95 20 90 8 .298

 

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

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Watch Out: Baltimore’s Nick Markakis Is Due For Bounce Back Season

Baltimore Orioles’ right fielder Nick Markakis has become the face of the franchise in Charm City. He was the first of the team’s “young guns” to make it to the big leagues back in 2006, and after a fantastic rookie season and even better sophomore campaign, he put up solid number in ’08 and ’09, only to regress considerably in 2010.

The regression, however, was more than likely not his fault.

Last year, the right fielder put up a batting average of .297, which is very solid anyway you look at it, and consistent with what he has done throughout the rest of his career. His OBP was .370, a great number. But he only hit 12 bombs and drove in a measly 60 runs, while generally being the No. 3 bat in the lineup.

I’m telling you, it wasn’t his fault.

Consider, if you will, who was batting in front of him much of the season—Julio Lugo, Corey Patterson and occasionally, Cesar Izturis. Second baseman Brian Roberts appeared in only 59 games last season, and being the Orioles’ leadoff man for the past six or eight years, it’s fairly obvious he’s something special atop the lineup.

Without Roberts getting on base in front of Markakis, the right fielder had no one to drive in almost every at-bat. And when someone in front of Markakis did manage to get on, they usually didn’t get extra bases, making it hard for Markakis to drive them in with the pitches he was being thrown.

Which takes us to the next part of the equation: How he was being pitched to.

Imagine, you’re a major league pitcher going up against the 2010 Baltimore Orioles. The middle of their lineup consisted of Markakis, Ty Wigginton, Luke Scott and Adam Jones. Who would you like to avoid out of the four of them? If you said Markakis, then your line of thinking is exactly what almost every other pitcher had last season.

Markakis was easily the most talented hitter in the Orioles’ lineup last year and is probably still in the top three-headed going into the 2011 season with the O’s revamped lineup. But last year, he had virtually no protection and pitchers gave him a healthy serving of fastballs down and away the whole season. How can one pull a fastball down and away over the right field wall? The opposing pitchers could afford to do this because if they hit the strike zone, great, but if they walked him, there were easier guys to get out hitting behind him.

Although he did hit 45 doubles last year (his fourth season in a row with 40+ doubles), he was limited to a lot of singles due to those outside pitches. Even though his batting average with runners in scoring position was somewhere in the .330 range, it was hard for him to drive in a guy from second when all he could do with what he was being pitched was to slap it to left field for a single.

This season, expect all that to change.

A healthy Roberts will do wonders for this team’s run scoring potential, and though that is no guarantee, so far this offseason the O’s offensive catalyst has proclaimed he is as healthy as ever. If the most important hitter in the O’s lineup can stay on the field, he will give the rest of the guys plenty of opportunities to drive in some runs.

As far as the rest of the guys, Markakis has some new lineup protections and it’s pretty stacked. Markakis will be pushed up to the second hole in the batting order, where he has historically hit better at anyway, due to the talent the Orioles have brought in to fill out the order. First baseman Derrek Lee will most likely be hitting third, and after having an injured, down year last season (a down year in which he still drove in 80 men), his thumb is all healed and he’s ready to show he’s still a big hitter on his one-year deal.

After Lee, DH Vladimir Guerrero will probably be hitting fourth, and we all know what Vlad is capable of. The next three bats will most likely be left fielder Luke Scott, third baseman Mark Reynolds and center fielder Adam Jones. Scott and Reynold could be flipped depending on how the opposing pitching matchup looks. How’s that for lineup protection?

With less pressure and better pitches to hit, I expect Markakis’ numbers to go back up to at least what he did in 2009, when he had a line of .293/18/101. For a No. 2 hitter, that is phenomenal, but he is capable of so much more.

All O’s fans should hope for Markakis to return to form, but at the same time, they shouldn’t be to worried about him. He’s a great talent with an awesome bunch of guys hitting behind him, so he should see his share of fastballs inside that he can yank onto Eutaw Street out over the big scoreboard in right. But even if he can’t drive in runs like he used to, he’ll still be a great contributor to the team, hitting around .300 with 40+ doubles and working plenty of walks, all while playing Gold Glove caliber defense.

Anyway you cut it, he’s a valuable player to the team. Expect him to return to the value he had shown prior to this past baseball season.

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MLB Power Rankings: Baltimore Orioles Add Vladimir Guerrero,Now Third in AL East

The Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a one year, $8 million deal with Vladimir Guerrero. Add him to fellow 2011 offseason acquisitions Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Justin Duchscherer and JJ Hardy and suddenly, this team looks like it can compete right now.

They will need Brian Matusz to mature a great deal, and it still doesn’t look like they will be close to the Yankees and Red Sox, but to put it in perspective, they could finish with a better record than anyone in the AL West.

Matt Wieters and Adam Jones are a year older and closer to fulfilling their massive potential. Let’s run down their impressive lineup.

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MLB Fantasy Baseball Profile: What Happened to Nick Markakis?

Nick Markakis averaged 99 runs, 20.3 HRs, 100 RBI and 11.3 SBs while hitting .299 from 2007-2009. He didn’t excel in any one category, outside of the 112 RBI in 2007, but he was a solid contributor across the board.

Then last year happened.

The only area in which Markakis looked like himself was his batting average of .297. He scored just 79 runs; he hit just 12 HRs.

Those dips were bad, but his 60 RBI was perhaps the worst of the bunch.

Those look more like middle infielder numbers than what an all-round top 20 outfielder should produce. He ranked fourth on the team in RBI, behind Ty Wiggington, Luke Scott and Adam Jones, all of which had fewer at bats than Markakis. Wiggington and Jones has 48 fewer ABs, while Scott had a whopping 182 fewer.

Nick wasn’t the only Oriole to disappoint last year though. Adam Jones (.284-76-19-69-7) and Matt Wieters (.249-37-11-55-0) did not meet expectations. Plus, Brian Roberts was limited to 59 games.

The Orioles as a whole ranked 27th in runs scored and 21st in HRs.

With just 60 RBI, it’s hard to find a glimmer of hope in Markakis’ season. He was wildly inconsistent with four RBI in April, 13 in May, seven in June, 12 in July, nine in August and 12 in September.

I guess if you want to be optimistic, he hit .344 with 21 runs, four HRs and 15 RBI in his final 122 ABs. More than that small sample size, I would draw on his career numbers when assessing his 2011 potential.

Players have off-years. It’s not uncommon, especially when the team as a whole struggles like it did. Given his track record, I am willing to gamble that last year was a fluke.

As a bonus, his decline should allow you to get him at a discount in this year’s fantasy drafts.

What’s your take? Do you think Nick Markakis will return to form?

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Andy MacPhail’s “Cavalry” is the Key to Compete for the O’s in the AL East

When I saw that Cliff Lee had signed with the Philadelphia Phillies around midnight last night, it got me thinking about a few things:

The top four of their starting rotation is so stacked, they can afford to leave their offense the way it is—balanced but not loaded like the 2010 season (due to the departure of Jayson Werth)—and still win many, many games.

The Baltimore Orioles, too, are looking at having a more balanced lineup in the 2011 season than they did in the 2010 season with the remaking of the left side of their infield with the additions of Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy. Assuming they can grab a solid first baseman (we’re all hoping for Adam LaRoche), then their lineup suddenly becomes even more balanced, much like the 2010 World Series champion San Francisco Giants lineup was.

The Orioles have five young starters, four of which saw big-league action last year, who have great potential pitching in the bigs. Orioles fans saw that potential shine the last two months of the 2010 season, once manager Buck Showalter took over, as he saw his young rotation pitch to a 3.16 ERA under him.

Pitching is everything.

The Giants proved that statement during the 2010 World Series, when they averaged a modest 3.9 runs per game during that set with the Texas Rangers. They won it all with good pitching.

Now that the Phillies have a rotation that includes four aces, they don’t need to worry about replacing Jayson Werth’s production.

And that’s the kind of team the Orioles are going to need to have in order to compete in the AL East: a balanced lineup with some of the best pitching in the league.

Many of the pieces are already in place: The faces of the franchise, second baseman Brian Roberts and right fielder Nick Markakis are locked up for the long term. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters have high ceilings, and both have made strides in their careers already. Left fielders Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold also are players who have good potential, and with Showalter at the helm, the possibility of that potential being reached is very good. Luke Scott helps bring some veteran balance to a young lineup, and if LaRoche or, say, Derrek Lee were signed to play first, they would do the same. Newcomers Reynolds and Hardy have both produced in their careers offensively, and are solid defensive players.

But even that isn’t the most exciting part of the Orioles’ potential. Starters Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton are all guys whose potential is awesome, Matusz’s especially. That’s where the comparison to the Phillies’ new staff of aces and the Giants’ great pitching comes into play.

It might sound crazy, but the Orioles’ young pitchers have the potential to compare to those two staffs in the sense that they will be great and they will be the leading factor for the Orioles becoming a playoff team again. The Orioles don’t have the funds to compete with the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. Look at the guys Boston just added. There’s no way the O’s could pull that kind of thing off, especially after 13 consecutive losing seasons. And now is the best time to take advantage of the situation.

While the Red Sox got a lot better over the MLB winter meetings, the rest of the division has only gotten worse. The Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays have all lost guys, with the Rays taking the biggest blow. Now, I understand that the offseason is still early and there’s plenty of time for each team to improve, but there’s not much left on the market for any of them, and with the Rays not having large economic resources and the Yankees losing their man in Cliff Lee, there’s definitely an opening coming in 2011 for the Orioles to bounce back and at least have a .500 season.

For that to happen, Buck’s going to have to keep up whatever he was doing with his pitching staff when he took over. Sure, the bullpen still needs a lot of work, but I’m confident that Andy MacPhail is going to address that as the offseason continues, and I’m happy with what he’s done already in bringing back Koji Uehara, going hard after Kevin Gregg, signing a potential steal in Jeremy Accardo and letting go of Matt Albers.

Matusz, Arrieta, Bergesen, Tillman and Britton, along with veteran Jeremy Guthrie, are what are going to turn this ship around, not some high-profile free-agent fielders. A lineup that’s solid up and down—not a few good guys with a big free-agent bat thrown in the middle of them—a pitching staff that can make an opposing team cringe with every rotation turn and a shutdown back end of the bullpen, along with great defense is what the team needs to beat the Beasts of the East. And that’s what’s coming.

If you read the paragraph above and thought, “Well duh! That’s what every team needs to win!” then you need to read the article again. Because it isn’t necessary for every team to create in order to win. It’s what’s needed to compete in the AL East if you’re not the Yankees or Red Sox.

The cavalry is coming.

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Fantasy Baseball Buy or Deny ‘Em: What We Can Expect From Nick Markakis in 2011

Nick Markakis was supposed to be the one middle of the order option that fantasy owners could depend on from the Baltimore Orioles.  Unfortunately, all that we got was a major disappointment. 

Is it something that we should have seen coming?  That’s debatable.

Now, the $64,000 question is if we can expect a rebound in 2011.  Before we can answer that question, we first need to look at what he did in 2010:

629 At Bats
.297 Batting Average (187 Hits)
12 Home Runs
60 RBI
79 Runs
7 Stolen Bases
.370 On Base Percentage
.436 Slugging Percentage
.331 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average was consistent with what he has done throughout his five-year career, as he has always been between .291 and .306.  That’s an extremely solid number and one that, at this point, we have no reason to be skeptical about. 

After that, however, things took a dramatic turn for the worse.  The power has been on the decline since his breakout 2007 campaign.  Let’s take a look at his home run totals, as well as his HR/FB for the past four years:

  • 2007 – 23 HR, 11.6% HR/FB
  • 2008 – 20 HR, 12.6% HR/FB
  • 2009 – 18 HR, 8.0% HR/FB
  • 2010 – 12 HR, 6.1% HR/FB

No matter what you think of Markakis, you have to know that he has more power than this.  The problem came when he played away from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 

Last season, he hit just four home runs on the road in 320 AB.  The prior three years, he had never hit fewer than eight.

Outside of that, you certainly can put a lot of the blame on the struggles of the Orioles lineup in general. 

They were 27th in the league in runs scored with just 613, better than only the Astros, Pirates and Mariners.  They were among the worst teams in on-base percentage.

A lot of the problems were centered on the injury to Brian Roberts.  He is the sparkplug that helps to make the offense go.  Without him, Markakis and the rest of the “thumpers” came up with the bases empty and little to accomplish.

Markakis was actually good with runners in scoring position, hitting .338.  Yes, you can argue that he had only one home run, which is true, but it didn’t really matter.  He still had 45 RBI in 136 AB.  What he needed was more opportunities.

Outside of the return of a healthy Brian Roberts, the Orioles are working hard to improve the power in the middle of the order.  With Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy in place, joining Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones, the lineup certainly would appear to be more equipped to score runs. 

Yes, you want to say that the move is just a repetition of 2010, when they tried Garrett Atkins, but things are different.

While Hardy is trying to regain his value, Reynolds has never lost his power.  He still hit 32 HR in 2009 and is just a year removed from a 44-HR campaign.  He may strike out a ton, but he’s going to provide at least a little bit of protection for Markakis and others.

The bottom line with Markakis is that if you are looking for a 30-HR hitting outfielder, you are looking in the wrong place.  While we all hoped that he would develop into that, it clearly just is not what is going to happen. 

Does that make him an option that we shouldn’t be targeting?  Absolutely not, we just all need to know what we are buying into.

What you are going to get is a .300 hitter with 16-23 HR power and the potential to go 90/90, if not push 100/100 if the lineup around him is producing.  That certainly has value in all formats, doesn’t it? 

He’s not going to be a top outfielder, but he’s certainly a player I’m going to be targeting in all formats. 

While others may downgrade him for the poor season, I wouldn’t ignore him.  He’s likely to rebound and will have value.

What about you?  Is Markakis someone you would target in your drafts?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

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