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There’s nothing wrong with protecting your prospects. If the Washington Nationals hadn’t held on to Trea Turner, they wouldn’t have beaten the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday.

The Nationals have Turner, Lucas Giolito and a whole bunch of other guys they wouldn’t trade for Aroldis Chapman.

They also have enough needs that they’re going to have to trade for someone before August 1’s non-waiver deadline. If not Chapman, then someone else.

If not now, when?

Heard that before? Maybe so, because Cubs president Theo Epstein used exactly those words in explaining why he traded big prospects for Chapman this week.

“We feel like we have a chance to do something special, but there’s a lot of work ahead,” Epstein told reporters, including Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “It was tough to give up what we gave up, but if not now, when?”

The Nationals may not have 107 years of failure, the way the Cubs do, but the Cubs came closer to the World Series last year than the Nationals ever have. The Nats have had a 96-win season and a 98-win season, and they have a team that can win 95-plus games again, but one of these years, they need to turn talent into October success.

If not now, when?

The Nationals can be creative. They turned Turner into an outfielder because their infield was full and they needed another way to fit his speed and ability into the lineup.

On Wednesday, in his second day as a center fielder and still in his first month as the Nationals’ leadoff hitter, he drove in three runs in their 4-1 win in Cleveland.

He gave the Nationals a lead their bullpen could hold, and that’s not a simple task. This is a team that gave up six runs in the final two innings of a 10-6 loss to the San Diego Padres on Sunday, and three runs in the ninth inning of a 7-6 loss to the Indians on Tuesday night.

The Nationals didn’t absolutely have to get Chapman, but they do need to be creative enough to get someone.

Maybe that means coming up with the package that tempts the Kansas City Royals to part with Wade Davis, or one that could tempt the New York Yankees to deal Andrew Miller. Maybe it’s David Robertson, although he has four blown saves and a 4.35 ERA with the Chicago White Sox.

Maybe it’s even something different, like what Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post tweeted Wednesday night:

That is crazy, and it seems highly unlikely, but what would be crazier and probably even unlikelier would be to do nothing between now and Monday.

The Nationals weren’t comfortable with Drew Storen as their closer last year, so they traded for Jonathan Papelbon. There was no chance they were going feel comfortable with Papelbon, even before his four-run ninth inning on Sunday or his collapse Tuesday night.

Stats can be deceiving with relievers, but Papelbon’s 4.18 ERA and 1.423 WHIP aren’t. It’s time to go find something else.

Remember this past winter when the Nationals lost out to the Cubs for Ben Zobrist, they reacted by signing Daniel Murphy to play second base. Murphy hit his 20th home run of the season Wednesday, and in a season when Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth have struggled and Bryce Harper has hit .222 since April, Murphy has kept the Nationals on top in the National League East.

With Stephen Strasburg (who won again Wednesday) and Max Scherzer, the Nationals have a rotation built for October. They have a four-game lead over the Miami Marlins and a 5.5-game lead over the New York Mets, and according to the playoff odds on Baseball Prospectus, they have a 94.8 percent chance of making it to October.

Unlike last year, they have a manager who can get them there and win once he’s there. True, Dusty Baker doesn’t yet own a World Series ring as manager, but he’s taken seven teams into the postseason.

He took the San Francisco Giants to the World Series in 2002, and a year later, he brought the Cubs as close to the World Series as anyone else has since 1945.

For the record, you have to go 12 years further back to find the last time a Washington team made it to the World Series.

It’s been a long, long time, and it’s about time the Nationals did something to end that drought.

If not now, when?

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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New York Mets infielder Jose Reyes was held out of the second game in Tuesday’s doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals after going to the hospital for a Grade 1 intercostal strain on his left side, according to CBS New York.

Continue for updates.

Reyes Isn’t Expected to Miss Significant Time

Wednesday, July 27

Reyes and Mets manager Terry Collins are hopeful that the strained left intercostal muscle will only require Reyes to be out of action for a few days, according to James Wagner of the New York Times.

“We’re going to take it day by day and see what happens,” Reyes said, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

Reyes, 33, is hitting .239 with three home runs, eight RBI and three stolen bases in 16 games with the Mets since being called up from the minors on July 5. The team signed him on June 25 shortly after the Colorado Rockies released him the same day. He served a 52-game suspension to start the season after he was arrested in October for allegedly assaulting his wife.

Wilmer Flores will fill in as the team’s third baseman in the meantime. And the Mets are confident he will play well in Reyes’ absence. 

“He’s done a great job,” Collins said of Flores, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. “He is absolutely killing left-handed pitching. When you’re doing that, you’re gonna get a lot of playing time—especially against left-handers.”

Flores has been red-hot in July, hitting .340 with seven home runs, 13 RBI and 11 runs scored in 50 at-bats, so the Mets shouldn’t suffer with Flores temporarily playing an everyday role. 

Meanwhile, Curtis Granderson is sliding into the leadoff spot in the team’s batting order on Wednesday night, according to Adam Rubin of ESPN, and will likely remain there until Reyes returns.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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Dee Gordon will return to the big leagues Thursday, and you’re allowed to have mixed feelings about that. 

On the one hand, the Miami Marlins second baseman served his time—an 80-game suspension under MLB‘s performance-enhancing drug policy. 

On the other hand, the icky emotions associated with Gordon’s positive PED test—which revealed testosterone and the synthetic steroid clostebol—won’t simply evaporate.

He is a reminder that PEDs still permeate the game nearly nine years after the release of the infamous Mitchell Report. His past accomplishments are tainted; his future exploits are dipped in suspicion.

Still, it must be said: Gordon’s comeback will almost surely help the Marlins’ push for the postseason.

It’s not every year a club adds the defending National League batting champion in late July without surrendering a single trade chip.

Entering play on Wednesday, Miami sits at 54-46, a half-game up on the New York Mets for the NL’s second wild-card slot.

If the Marlins reach the playoffs, Gordon will be ineligible under the tougher PED penalties MLB instituted in 2014. For the stretch run, however, he can provide a measurable boost.

“He could be even more of a lightning rod for us,” manager Don Mattingly said of Gordon, per MLB.com’s Patrick Pinak. “Our issue isn’t getting on base, it’s scoring runs.”

Sure enough, the Marlins enter play on Wednesday tied for sixth in the Senior Circuit in OBP, but they rank 11th in runs scored. 

And Miami ranks 12th in the NL with 33 stolen bases, six of which Gordon swiped before his suspension.

Tack on all the PED asterisks you want. Gordon’s .333/.359/.418 slash line from last year jumps off the stat sheet, as do his MLB-leading 205 hits and 58 stolen bases.

How much of that was chemically inflated? It’s impossible to say.

But Gordon enjoyed an All-Star season in 2014 with the Los Angeles Dodgers at age 26, and he has flashed superlative speed since he broke into the big leagues in 2011.

Cynics delight in pointing out that Gordon’s PED suspension coincided with Barry Bonds’ first year as the Marlins’ hitting coach. But the notion that Bonds arrived in the Sunshine State and introduced Gordon to steroids as his first order of business is somewhere between implausible and absurd. 

Beyond that, the timeline is murky. We won’t know what the post-suspension Gordon looks like until we see him in the batter’s box and on the basepaths.

Let’s assume, though, that he’s even a shadow of the man we watched last season. If so, he’s a weapon.

For what it’s worth, he’s been strong in his minor league stint, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro:

On July 18, Mattingly said Gordon’s return would be “more of a blend than just a throw him into the fire,” per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. 

It helps that Derek Dietrich, Gordon’s replacement at second, owns a .272/.363/.756 slash line with 30 RBI.

“I wouldn‘t feel cheated,” Dietrich said of ceding playing time to Gordon, per Spencer. 

Interesting choice of words.

The Marlins have a cache of dangerous young hitters, highlighted by an outfield of All-Star Marcell Ozuna, super-slugger Giancarlo Stanton and red-hot Christian Yelich. 

Add ace Jose Fernandez, and you’ve got the makings of a rising power.

There’s always the question of how long this will last in South Beach, particularly under the leadership of polarizing, blow-it-up owner Jeffrey Loria.

Yet here Miami sits, in the thick of the October hunt, laden with up-and-comers and about to get one of the more dynamic players in the game back, warts and all.

The Fish are reportedly angling for deadline reinforcements, particularly in the starting rotation, and have recently expressed interest in New York Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

The trouble is, Miami has a relatively barren farm system, which Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 26 in baseball. In a seller’s market, the Marlins could be squeezed out.

Mattingly must be careful, using Gordon strategically with the understanding that he’ll need an alternate second baseman and leadoff hitter come playoff time, if and when that time comes. It’s an odd predicament, fraught with pitfalls and potential second-guessing.

“We’ve talked,” Mattingly said, per the Miami Herald‘s Barry Jackson. “Whenever Dee comes back, we’ll just continue to be creative and keep everybody sharp.”

Easier said than done.

For now, here’s what we know: Gordon is about to return to the big leagues. He’s going to be a factor. You’re allowed to have mixed feelings about that.

But Marlins boosters are permitted to celebrate, or at least quietly hope.

Much like positive PED tests, memories of great seasons don’t simply evaporate.

All statistics current as of July 26 and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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As the Atlanta Braves continue their long-term rebuild, Erick Aybar is among a few veterans the team may move before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.

Continue for updates.

Braves Making Aybar Available

Sunday, July 24

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal spoke to an MLB executive who said Sunday the Braves are “aggressively shopping” Aybar, along with Jeff Francoeur and their left-handed relievers.

Moving Aybar won’t be an easy task. He’s mired in the worst offensive season of his MLB career. He’s batting .208 with one home run and 17 RBI in 288 plate appearances. According to FanGraphs, his .262 slugging percentage is the second-worst in the league among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances.

Aybar’s contract situation makes trading him a little bit harder for Atlanta as well. He’s set to be a free agent at the end of the year, and few teams will bite for a half-season rental whose numbers are as bad as Aybar’s are.

In March, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution‘s David O’Brien reported that Braves general manager John Coppolella “made it clear” the team wasn’t going to settle for a small return in the event it dealt Aybar.

Atlanta likely banked on the 32-year-old rebounding following the 2015 season and then cashing in at the deadline. Instead, his decline has become even more pronounced, severely diminishing his trade value.

Offloading Aybar is clearly in the Braves’ best long-term interests, but Coppolella will either have to get creative or accept little back in order to get any deal done.

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Atlanta Braves pitcher Julio Teheran left the field during Friday’s game against the Colorado Rockies because of right lat tightness.

Continue for updates.

Teheran Day-to-Day, Gets No-Decision

Friday, July 22

The Braves announced the details on Teheran‘s status. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported the news, indicating Teheran appeared to hurt his back while at the plate in the top of the fifth inning. Although he returned to the mound for the bottom of the fifth, Teheran exited after fielding a ground ball.

Braves manager Brian Snitker said Teheran experienced discomfort in his upper back after a pitch, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. 

Teheran revealed the injury occurred after a pitch in the third inning, though he thought he could play through it, noting teammate Erick Aybar advised against it, per O’Brien.

MLB.com provided the footage of Teheran walking to the dugout:

In the midst of an already disastrous 2016 campaign, the Braves would loathe losing someone as valuable as Teheran for any extended period of time.

After tossing seven shutout innings in his prior outing against the Rockies, Teheran kept them off the board for four innings on Friday before being forced to leave. Atlanta’s bullpen subsequently denied Teheran the chance for a fourth win of the season by letting up four runs in the sixth.

Teheran lowered his ERA to 2.71 yet only has a 3-8 record to show for it. That’s how dire the situation is with the Braves, who would be best suited to not press Teheran back into action until he’s absolutely ready and 100 percent.

Given the circumstances as the worst club in baseball record-wise, Atlanta may want to consider shutting down Teheran for at least his next start. The 25-year-old should be conserved as much as possible down the stretch as the Braves continue to rebuild.

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Fact: Stephen Strasburg lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, his first loss since September 9, 2015 (21 starts).

Bleacher Report will be bringing sports fans the most interesting and engaging Cold Hard Fact of the day, presented by Coors Light.

Source: B/R Insights

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Fact: Miami Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez struck out 14 batters against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. He is the first pitcher this season to have multiple games with at least 14 strikeouts.

Bleacher Report will be bringing sports fans the most interesting and engaging Cold Hard Fact of the day, presented by Coors Light.

Source: B/R Insights

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Leave it to Jose Fernandez, whose fastball is barely contained by the fabric of reality, to get somewhere really fast.

But while that’s all well and good, just how far can he go?

Before we get to that, let’s break from cryptic speaking for the news. Fernandez is the man of the hour, because he made history Monday night. He was long gone by the time Martin Prado slugged a game-winning home run in the 11th inning of Miami’s 3-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, but he got the Marlins started off right by striking out 14 in 6.1 innings.

The 10th of those was the 500th strikeout of Fernandez’s career, making him the fastest pitcher in history to get there. He also had a highlight that makes him look good and Cody Asche look like a dolt:

Fernandez isn’t the fastest pitcher to 500 strikeouts by every measure. As noted by the Elias Sports Bureau (via ESPN), he needed more starts (65) than Yu Darvish (62) and Dwight Gooden (61).

But that’s not the best way to measure it. Per Evan Webeck of MLB.com, Fernandez’s 400 innings are the fewest any starting pitcher has ever needed to get to 500 strikeouts. Furthermore, Ryan M. Spaeder reveals Fernandez faced fewer batters than Darvish and Gooden:

It’s only fitting that Fernandez would make strikeout history in 2016. After striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings in his first three seasons, he now has a rate of 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings that places him far ahead of the rest of the field. To boot, the only qualified pitcher to ever do better in a single season was Randy Johnson at 13.4 per nine innings in 2001.

So, what we’re seeing is a case of a great strikeout pitcher getting even better. And since Fernandez is still only 23, you can’t help but wonder how many strikeouts he’ll put in the book in the end.

It could be a lot. Even if Fernandez never has a season as prolific as this one ever again, his career strikeout rate is still 11.3 per nine innings. That’s the highest ever for a pitcher through his age-23 season. Average that out, and he could join the coveted 4,000-strikeout club (only four members!) in just 3,200 innings.

Could…but won’t.

Look beneath Fernandez’s name on that list of the highest strikeout rates through the age of 23, and you’ll see the names Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. That comes off like a warning, and one that’s relevant in Fernandez’s case.

The two ingredients needed to climb MLB’s all-time strikeout list are talent and durability. Fernandez definitely has talent, but he’s still working on durability. He’s already had Tommy John surgery, and that’s never guaranteed to be a permanent fix.

“I can’t make them bulletproof,” Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed Fernandez’s surgery in 2014, told Jonah Keri for Grantland last year. “As hard as they throw, [after surgery] you’re going to be on the edge with every pitch.”

If Fernandez’s elbow doesn’t get him again, something else could. Efficient mechanics are arguably the best thing for warding off injuries, and there’s skepticism about Fernandez’s. Mechanics expert Chris O’Leary, for example, wrote at his website that Fernandez’s mechanics are “the embodiment of everything that’s wrong with the current state of pitching mechanics instruction and the modern power pitcher.”

It’s not fun to think about, but it’s thus not hard to picture Fernandez walking the same kind of career path as Prior and Wood: great at the beginning, but ultimately tragically short or injury-interrupted.

Even if Fernandez does stay healthy, he’s not going to rock an 11.3 K/9 for his entire career. Not even the Big Unit could do that, and he and Pedro Martinez are the only pitchers with more than 2,000 innings to strike out more than 10 batters per nine innings for their whole careers.

Injuries can take a chisel to a pitcher’s strikeout rate, but so can the usual aging curves. Per research by Bill Petti at FanGraphs, starting pitchers start leaking velocity in their mid-20s, and their strikeout rates begin to drop just a few years later.

If the same aging curves ultimately apply to Fernandez, he’s not going to get to 4,000 strikeouts in 3,200 innings. With a career K/9 in the neighborhood of 10, it would take more like 3,600 innings. That’s not an impossible total, but it’s a lot to ask of a guy without a track record of durability who exists at a time of pitch counts and innings limits.

As such, it’s best if nobody expects the quickest starter ever to 500 strikeouts to make it all the way to 4,000. Further injury trouble could derail things entirely. And even if Fernandez avoids that fate, he’ll probably still finish well short.

However, it’s not as hard to imagine Fernandez in the less rarefied, but still impressive air of the 3,000-strikeout club.

The trick will be making the most of his prime, which should have six or seven good years left in it if he stays healthy. With his current stuff, there’s a good chance he’ll get to 1,000 strikeouts by his age-25 season in 2018. At that rate, he could hit 2,000 in his age-29 season.

That would put Fernandez on roughly the same trajectory as Martinez, who was knocking on the door of 2,000 strikeouts as he entered his 30s. He no longer had his best stuff by then, but he got by on command and smarts long enough to cross the threshold of 3,000.

Fernandez could get there the same way. In the first couple years of his career, his M.O. was to simply challenge hitters with his mid-to-high 90s fastball and then finish them off with his cartoon curveball. But as we discussed recently, Fernandez’s fastball-curveball combination has turned into a fastball-curveball combination that’s bolstered by beautiful location patterns. He could always throw. Now he can pitch.

If Fernandez can’t stay healthy, all of this is obviously academic. But if he does stay healthy, it won’t be at all surprising to watch him continue making strikeout history.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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The Washington Nationals played an 18-inning marathon against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, marking the franchise’s longest regular-season game since 1989, back when the team was still known as the Montreal Expos, per ESPN Stats & Info.

With right-handed ace Max Scherzer taking the hill at home against Pirates rookie Chad Kuhl, it appeared the Nationals would have a significant advantage in Sunday’s contest as they tried to complete a three-game sweep coming out of the All-Star break.

However, Kuhl had different plans entirely, striking out five batters and allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings, eventually exiting with a 1-0 lead thanks to an RBI double from outfielder Starling Marte in the top of the sixth.

Scherzer otherwise held the Pirates scoreless over his seven frames, as he struck out seven batters while allowing six hits, a walk and the one run.

Despite the excellent outing, Scherzer was in line to take his seventh loss of the season until Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy came through in the bottom of the ninth inning with a two-out, pinch-hit solo home run off Pirates closer Mark Melancon, who blew a save for just the second time in 29 tries this season.

Following eight scoreless innings that took a heavy toll on both teams’ bullpens, Marte came up big for the Pirates once again, launching a solo home run in the top of the 18th off Nationals reliever Oliver Perez.

The Nationals did manage a pair of singles in the bottom of the inning, but Jon Niese then struck out infielder Danny Espinosa to end the rally and finish out a 2-1 victory.

Though Sunday’s game was the Nationals’ lengthiest regular-season affair since the franchise’s Montreal days, the team did play an 18-inning classic in the 2014 National League Division Series against the San Francisco Giants, per ESPN Stats & Info.

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Remember when the New York Mets‘ vaunted super-rotation was a beacon of hope and stability in Queens?

So much for that.

Matt Harvey is lost for the season to shoulder surgery. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are pitching through bone spurs in their elbows. And Zack Wheeler has hit multiple speed bumps in his return from Tommy John surgery.

That leaves only Jacob deGrom, who twirled nine scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday and served notice that he’s still an ace worth leaning on.

No one had given up on deGrom, at least no one whose opinion you should trust. But the 2014 National League Rookie of the Year endured a rough patch early in the season and watched his ERA balloon more than two points between April 30 and May 21. 

Over his last nine starts, however, he’s vacillated between stout and stellar, striking out 68 in 61 innings while allowing just 12 walks and 13 earned runs.

Sunday’s performance was particularly transcendent. Only a walk to woeful Ryan Howard and a hit by Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin stood between deGrom and perfection as he engineered the first complete game and first shutout of his young career.

And he did other things well, too, as Newsday‘s Marc Carig pointed out:

“There was all that concern about his velocity early, but he’s just gotten a little stronger and a little stronger,” manager Terry Collins said after deGrom’s gem, per Stephen Pianovich and Evan Webeck of MLB.com. … “You saw better command today and probably the best sinker he had all year.”

Entering play Sunday, deGrom’s average fastball velocity of 93.2 mph was a tick below his career average of 94.1 mph. But it’s been trending in the right direction. And, as Collins noted, the sinker was on-point against Philadelphia, as deGrom induced 10 ground balls to just five fly balls. 

Simply put, he looked like the guy Mets fans have come to know and love. The guy they can count on to anchor a suddenly unsettled starting five.

Things aren’t hopeless after deGrom.

Syndergaard sports a 2.56 ERA with 128 strikeouts in 105.2 innings. He left his most recent start on July 8 with what the team termed “arm fatigue,” but he threw from 90 feet Friday and said he felt like he had “a new arm,” per Maria Guardado of NJ Advance Media. 

Matz has posted a 3.38 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 96 innings. And Bartolo Colon, the ageless wonder, is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA.

But neither Syndergaard nor Matz has logged a full season in the big leagues, and both pitched deep into autumn last season during New York’s World Series run. And, again, both are battling arm issues that loom over every start and turn each grimace or twinge into a hold-your-breath moment. 

Colon, meanwhile, is a great story but also a 43-year-old who posted a 4.16 ERA in 2015. Add Harvey’s surgery and Wheeler’s protracted comeback and it’s reasonable to wonder if the Mets might deal for a starting pitcher before the non-waiver trade deadline, a thought that would have seemed absurd a few months ago.

Then again, New York may need to save its trade capital to improve an offense that ranks No. 28 in baseball in runs scored. Last summer, slugger Yoenis Cespedes—who’s currently dealing with a balky right quad—rode in as the deadline cavalry. Unless general manager Sandy Alderson can repeat the trick, the Mets might be sunk regardless.

OK, we’ve taken a dark turn. Now, the good news. At 49-42, New York is tied with the Miami Marlins in the NL wild-card race and sits a manageable six games behind the division-leading Washington Nationals. A couple of hot weeks could easily propel the defending Senior Circuit champs toward the top of the heap.

With the even-year San Francisco Giants and strapping young Chicago Cubs looking vulnerable, the NL remains up for grabs.

If the Mets plan to grab it, they need deGrom to consistently embody the dude who took the hill Sunday. They need him to be the man. And they need him to set aside the fatigue he admitted took a toll in the first half.

“One hundred sixty-two games is a lot,” he said, per James Wagner of the New York Times. “We’re over halfway through. You start to feel things and get a little worn out. I definitely think that break was needed for me.”

The bottom line is this: An area of unmitigated strength has sunk into uncertainty, and deGrom is the most reliable lifeline. 

No one expects him to toss a shutout every time he takes the ball. But the 28-year-old right-hander’s role is clear: Put this rotation—and, by extension, team—on your back and carry them back to the postseason promised land. He’ll need help from his remaining rotation-mates and quite possibly outside reinforcements. 

But he has to be a spark—a beacon of hope. And if recent results are any indication, he’s up to the task.

All statistics current as of July 17 and courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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