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Johnny Cueto has yet to throw a meaningful pitch for the San Francisco Giants, so it’s a bit early to be talking about his opt-out clause. Right?

Well, yes. But let’s do it anyway, because speculation is fun and opt-outs matter in today’s MLB.

The Giants, in case you missed it, handed Cueto a six-year, $130 million deal this winter after whiffing on Zack Greinke. Like many big contracts these days, Cueto’s has an escape clause wherein he can test the free-agent waters again after the 2017 season.

This sets up two possible scenarios:

Scenario A: Cueto gives San Francisco its money’s worth this year and next, then hits the market ahead of his age-32 season.

Scenario B: Cueto struggles or gets injured and decides to stick around for the duration of the deal.

Now, if you’re the Giants, obviously you prefer Scenario A. Two years of prime Cueto—the guy who eclipsed 200 innings in each of the last two seasons and led the National League in strikeouts in 2014—would look mighty nice next to ace lefty Madison Bumgarner. 

It would also sting to watch Cueto walk away under those circumstances. But it could end up a blessing in disguise.

Think of it this way: In 2016, the Giants are getting Cueto in his prime. Yes, there are questions about the subpar stat line he put up after a trade-deadline swap to the Kansas City Royals.

And there are the elbow issues that forced him to miss a start last year with the Cincinnati Reds. “Johnny, a little bit unfairly, had a lot of questions about his arm,” Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon said, per CSN Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic.

But, as he showed with his sparkling start for KC in Game 2 of the World Series, Cueto still has the stuff to be one of the most dominant right-handers in the game.

Here, take a look for yourself:

The projection systems are optimistic, with ZiPS foretelling a 2.87 ERA in 207 innings, per FanGraphs. And in 2017, Cueto will be in a pseudo-contract year, with all of the added motivation that implies.

Pitchers can break down at any time, but the probability of Cueto throwing at an All-Star level for the next two seasons is high, especially when you factor in the Giants’ excellent defense and the spacious confines of AT&T Park.

So, back to Cueto’s opt-out. If he exercises it, he’ll join the post-2017 season’s free-agent class. The following year, however, boasts an impossibly deep pool that could also include the likes of Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado, Jason Heyward, Jose Fernandez, Dallas Keuchel and Matt Harvey. 

“That’s decent talent,” an unnamed general manager told MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, presumably with his tongue inserted firmly in his cheek. “That’s a good year.”

With the remainder of Cueto’s contract off the ledger, the Giants would be free to go after one or more of those franchise stars in 2018. Sure, bidders will be plentiful and salaries will melt eyeballs. But with that much talent for the taking, everyone should be angling for payroll flexibility.

Imagine, for a moment, that instead of a six-year deal, the Giants signed Cueto for two years. Then imagine he acquits himself admirably for those two years before signing a longer deal with someone else and allowing San Francisco to ink any of those players listed up there. 

Sounds like something close to a dream scenario, right? At the very least, it’s nothing to lose sleep over, as McCovey Chronicles’ Grant Brisbee outlined:

…the biggest downside to every contract is that the team will have to pay the entire contract to a pitcher who isn’t worth it. That’s still true with a traditional contract. If you’re telling me that the biggest downside specific to an opt-out deal is that another team might get the chance to absorb the risk of a pitcher entering his mid-30s, and the consolation prize is that the Giants get two fantastic years and exactly what they paid for, I’m just not that scared.

That runs counter to Commissioner Rob Manfred, who made it clear in December he’s not a fan of the opt-out.

“Personally, I don’t see the logic of it,” he said, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. “But clubs do what they do.”

If Manfred wants an example of why opt-outs can benefit the team as well as the player, Cueto might be the poster boy.

Maybe he’ll crash and burn for the next two seasons and the Giants will be on the hook to pay him. Or maybe he’ll opt out and they’ll choose to bring him back. Remember, we’re hanging out in Speculationville. 

But if you’re trying to game out the best outcome for San Francisco, it’s two years of top-shelf Cueto and dollars to spend in 2018.

First, though, let’s watch him throw a meaningful pitch in the orange and black. 

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock left the field with a fractured elbow during Friday’s spring training game against the Kansas City Royals. The injury will require surgery, and it’s unclear when Pollock will be able to return to the lineup. 

Continue for updates.

Pollock Comments on Injury

Saturday, April 2 

“It felt like a nightmare,” Pollock told reporters. When asked if he plans to return this season, the outfielder said, “That’s going to be my goal,” per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com

Pollock to Undergo Surgery

Friday, April 1

Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reported Pollock fractured his elbow and requires surgery. 

Pollock Has Become Outfield Staple for Diamondbacks 

Pollock had an MRI on his right elbow during spring training in March, but it came back negative, ensuring he’d be healthy in time for the start of the 2016 campaign. He appeared in 157 games last season and batted .315 with 20 home runs and 76 RBI.

The 28-year-old did only appear in 75 contests in 2014—mostly due to a freak injury, as he fractured his right hand when he was hit by a pitch. That required surgery, but Pollock showed no ill or lingering effects in 2015.

In addition to his prowess at the plate, Pollock is an exceptional defender, winning a Gold Glove Award last season as well. His all-around exceptional play can’t really be emulated by anyone else on the roster, so Arizona will have to hope he can return soon.

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The San Diego Padres are reportedly “in agreement” on a minor league deal with veteran starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com on Friday.  

Guthrie was released from his minor league deal with the Texas Rangers on Thursday, per John Blake, the team’s executive vice president of communications.

Guthrie is coming off a season with the Kansas City Royals in which he posted career worsts in ERA (5.95) and WHIP (1.551) since becoming a full-time starter in 2007. He also allowed an American League-high 29 home runs at a whopping 14.1 percent home run rate with a minus-1.8 bWAR.

The team left him off the playoff roster in the fall less than a year after he started Game 7 of the 2014 World Series. The Royals declined to pick up his $10 million mutual option to keep him in 2016 and bought him out for $3.2 million.

His departure was expected, given the high value of his contract and his underperformance. 

Guthrie signed with the Rangers in late February as an insurance starter who would compete for the fifth and final rotation spot with Chi Chi Gonzalez and Nick Martinez. Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and Colby Lewis are slated at the top, respectively, with ace Yu Darvish expected to rejoin the team midseason. 

The Padres are a better fit for Guthrie, given their lack of starting pitching depth beyond Tyson Ross, James Shields and Andrew Cashner.

Guthrie’s days as a top-of-the-rotation hurler are probably over, but he could vie for big league time toward the back end of the rotation in San Diego.

All advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

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Authorities in Maui, Hawaii, will drop domestic abuse charges against Colorado Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes ahead of a trial that was scheduled to begin April 4.

Per Jennifer Sinco Kelleher of the Associated Press, Maui deputy prosecuting attorney Kerry Glen decided to drop the case against Reyes due to a lack of cooperation from Reyes’ wife.

Reyes was arrested and charged with allegedly assaulting his wife on October 31, per Chelsea Davis of Hawaii News Now.

According to Davis’ report, the alleged altercation took place around 2:30 p.m. while Reyes and his wife, Katherine, were staying at the Four Seasons Resort Maui at Wailea. Reyes’ wife told police he “grabbed her off the bed and shoved her” and also reportedly told police he “grabbed her throat and shoved her into the sliding glass balcony door.”

The Rockies, who acquired Reyes from Toronto last July, issued a statement regarding the allegations against the 32-year-old:

While awaiting a final outcome to Reyes’ domestic violence case, Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred announced in February the four-time All-Star had been placed on paid leave, via MLB.com’s Thomas Harding: 

Upon resolution of Reyes’ criminal proceedings and the completion of the Commissioner’s Office’s investigation into the incident, Commissioner Manfred will make a decision whether to impose discipline on Reyes. The Commissioner’s Office will have no further comment on this matter until a final disposition is announced.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Reyes will remain on administrative leave until the investigation is complete.

Even though the case against Reyes was dropped, he could still face a suspension from MLB. The league’s domestic violence policy, established last August, gives Manfred the authority to determine a punishment following an investigation by the commissioner’s office.

New York Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman became the first player punished under the new policy after details emerged in December of an incident with his girlfriend in October. Chapman received a 30-game suspension to start the season even though prosecutors decided not to pursue a case against him due to conflicting accounts and lack of evidence, per MLB.com’s Paul Hagen and Bryan Hoch.

Reyes has not played a spring training game with the Rockies while on paid leave, so even if he avoids a suspension, he likely wouldn’t be ready to take the field when they open the season on April 4 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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San Diego Padres starting pitcher James Shields has once again cropped up in trade rumors with the regular season rapidly approaching. 

Continue for updates.

Shields Back on Trade Block

Friday, Mar. 25

On Friday, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that a “few teams,” including the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox, have talked to the Padres about dealing for Shields.   

However, Dennis Lin of the San Diego-Tribune reported nothing is imminent.

In his first year with the Padres in 2015 after signing a four-year, $75 million deal (viaSpotrac), Shields went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA, hardly the kind of numbers from a pitcher making ace money. 

He was just one of a few big offseason deals the Padres made prior to the 2015 season that didn’t yield big rewards.

The Padres hobbled to a 74-88 finish in 2015, which didn’t reflect the kind of roster the team had on paper. 

Pitching had a lot to do with those struggles, as the team’s staff allowed over 4.5 runs per game. Only eight teams in the league allowed more in 2015. 

Due to his sub-par performance in his debut season with the Padres, Shields found himself in the middle of trade talks in December, per Buster Olney:

This came after he cleared waivers in August when the team couldn’t deal him at the trade deadline. 

With the kind of money that he’s set to make, the Padres probably won’t be asking for much in return for Shields. His re-emergence on the trade market could just be another attempt at dumping his salary, per Heyman:

If they can deal Shields, then the Padres could have an opportunity to reinvest their money into building their team to a contender in a loaded National League West with the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Teams around the league could look at the 34-year-old as a veteran arm that could bolster their respective rotations. The Orioles could put Shields toward the top of the staff to complement Yovani Gallardo, while the Red Sox could have him complement David Price. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

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Chase Field may be fewer than 20 years old, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are already considering playing elsewhere in the future.

Craig Harris of the Arizona Republic reported Thursday the team is upset that Maricopa County is unable to provide what it feels are necessary $187 million stadium renovations.

The Diamondbacks released a statement from chief executive Derrick Hall:

Harris noted the team’s lease with the county runs through 2028, and ownership can’t begin making concrete plans to move until at least 2024.

Baseball writer Ken Arneson joked plenty of teams would love to play in Chase Field:

Similarly, Brad Denny of 3TV Sports argued the stadium isn’t in dire need of a makeover:

Thursday’s news comes after the Arizona Coyotes and Phoenix Suns both ran into stadium issues of their own.

The city council for Glendale, Arizona, voted to terminate its lease with the Coyotes in June 2015, and the two sides eventually agreed to a two-year deal. According to ESPN.com’s Scott Burnside, the plan in January was for the Coyotes to play in Glendale until they found a permanent home, potentially in Tempe, Arizona.

Meanwhile, the Suns’ push for a new arena was mentioned as early as October 2012, per Mike Sunnucks of the Phoenix Business Journal.

In September 2015, Sunnucks also described what were “mythical blueprints” of new venues for the Diamondbacks and Suns on the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community.

Hall first publicly broached the topic of Chase Field renovations in a February interview on Arizona Sports 98.7’s Doug and Wolf Show (via Steve Krafft of Fox 10). He argued the stadium is too big relative to the current demand.

According to ESPN.com, the Diamondbacks finished 23rd in attendance in 2015, averaging 25,680 fans a game. That represented only 52.9 percent of the stadium’s capacity.

It will be particularly important that the club is able to draw fans this year after a busy offseason. According to Spotrac, the Diamondbacks climbed from 28th in team payroll in 2015 to 21st in 2016. Signing Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5 million deal was a sign of ownership’s intentions.

Should Arizona fail to see a marked rise in attendance, it could only strengthen the team’s resolve to either renovate Chase Field or seek a new home.

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If the Los Angeles Dodgers head toward disaster this season, left-handed starter Scott Kazmir won’t be driving the car.

Kazmir is like the guy sitting in the back seat on a long road trip. He has no influence on whether or not you get lost and can only make the ride better by cracking jokes. All he can do is make the Dodgers better.

All of this is to say there’s no need for panic about Kazmir’s disastrous spring thus far (9.39 ERA, decreased velocity). Though he has progressed after two poor starts, according to a report from the Orange County Register‘s Bill Plunkett, it’s unclear whether he will be the shutdown pitcher of old either.

If the offseason signing of Kazmir does bomb, the Dodgers have a backup plan sitting in their minor league system. His name is Julio Urias.

No pitcher in minor league baseball is more exciting than Urias, who, according to MLB.com, has accelerated through the minor league levels faster than any other prospect despite being just 19 years old. The site predicts he will make his major league debut this season.

The Dodgers have handled him with kid gloves. And in this instance, that cliche has never made more sense. This kid has only been able to buy tickets to an R-rated movie for two years.

But age doesn’t determine a player’s ascent. Development does.

From the MLB.com scouting report on Urias:

Not only is Urias the top left-handed pitching prospect in the Minor Leagues, he’s also the most precocious phenom in the game. The youngest pitcher in full-season ball in 2014, he dominated in the hitter-friendly California League as a 17-year old.

[…]

Though Urias needs to develop more consistent control and command — no surprise given his age — he has advanced feel for pitching. He shows an aptitude for altering his arm angle and varying the speed of his pitches. Los Angeles is trying to manage his innings and the expectations for him but may not be able to keep him in the Minors much longer.

His call-up is imminent. A Kazmir flop might simply motivate the Dodgers.

Even at his best, Kazmir is a stand-in for Urias, who should be firmly in the Dodgers rotation in 2017. That’s likely why Kazmir received an opt-out after this season in the three-year, $48 million deal he signed this offseason.

If Kazmir opts out, it means he had a solid season. And if he pitches poorly, it would be as if the team lost him a season early. With Urias nearly ready, it wouldn’t matter much.

Sure, for most teams—heck, for some countries even—eating $48 million wouldn’t be as easy as moving on to a star prospect. But Los Angeles has so much money it could wrap Dodger Dogs in $10 bills and still outspend every team in free agency.

Injuries have decimated the Dodgers rotation. Brett Anderson will be out three to five months recovering from back surgery, according to ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla. Hyun-Jin Ryu is recovering from shoulder surgery, and Alex Wood is just now coming back from a forearm issue.

But money aside, if Kazmir’s velocity continues to drop and he continues to struggle with his command, the Dodgers would have to make a move to stay in the race.

They could make a trade, but with a player like Urias and a deep crop of minor league pitchers that will follow, there is no reason to deplete one of baseball’s best farm systems to add an arm.

Urias was sent to minor league camp last week after struggling in spring training. However, that could have been due to what the Los Angeles Times‘ Andy McCullough deemed a “minor leg issue.”

“He’s been in camp before, but the way his body has matured, his head, I hear he’s a lot more comfortable from people who were here last year,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said of Urias. “Just his bullpens have been good, his work’s been good.”

This isn’t a plea to rush Urias‘ development. Obviously, given last week’s reassignment, he won’t be on the major league roster on Opening Day—or probably even in the opening month.

No verdict will be reached on Kazmir after the first month of the season. He will have only started about five games by then. But come June, if Kazmir continues to struggle, Urias easily may have rounded out his development by making those final few tweaks with his command that were alluded to in the MLB.com report.

The Dodgers are running out of arms. They have few options left. Sure, they could look to the trade market.

Given Urias‘ talent, though, it would be hard to find a better option.

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers‘ outfield depth is going to be tested, as Andre Ethier will miss the next few months to recover from a fractured tibia he suffered on March 18. 

Continue for updates. 

Ethier to Miss 10-14 Weeks

Tuesday, March 22

Per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Ethier does not need surgery but will be out for 10-14 weeks. 

Ethier was initially injured Friday during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks after fouling a ball off his shin. 

Per ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla, Ethier had an X-ray “immediately” after suffering the injury and it came back negative, leading to him being diagnosed with a contusion. When the pain had yet to subside by Monday, Ethier underwent a bone scan, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times that Ethier’s leg was “not responding” the way they had hoped: “After a contusion, even if it gets you pretty good, you should still feel less discomfort. And he’s just not there yet. Sometimes X-rays don’t tell the whole story. That’s why we wanted to get the scan.”

The Dodgers do have plenty of outfielders to choose from now that Ethier is set to miss the first two months of the regular season. Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford and Joc Pederson seem likely to be the starting trio on opening day against San Diego. 

However, per Mike Petriello of MLB.com, the Dodgers’ current injury list looks closer to what the Opening Day roster was supposed to be:

This was a different offseason for the Dodgers, who didn’t spend crazy money in free agency and opted to build around their returning talent and a strong farm system. It’s not a bad gamble, but it requires a lot of things to go right. 

McCullough noted the Dodgers will likely keep Trayce Thompson as their fifth outfielder in Ethier’s absence. The 33-year-old Ethier was one of Los Angeles’ best hitters last year, posting an .852 OPS with 14 home runs in 142 games. 

The Dodgers don’t boast a deep lineup, so losing Ethier puts more pressure on players like Puig and Pederson to play up to their potential in order to win their fourth straight National League West title in 2016. 

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San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt is entering the 2016 season with a new one-year, $6.2 million deal he signed in February before he hits a second year of arbitration next offseason, per Spotrac. 

Continue for updates.

Belt, Giants in Extension Talks

Tuesday, March 22

Unrestricted free agency looms after the 2017 season, and the Giants look keen on locking Belt down long term. On Monday, Giants general manager Bobby Evans met with Belt’s representatives to continue talking about a contract extension, per Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com.   

Evans spoke with Pavlovic about negotiations:

We’re exploring options. There’s no pressure — we have him for two more years. There’s no pressure, but if we have the opportunity, it’d be wise to take advantage of it. We’ll see how it plays out.

We have a fan base here that appreciates him and a club he fits well on, and he’s been a big part of our success.

This season will be Belt’s sixth season in MLB, all with the Giants, as he’s been a part of two World Series-winning teams in 2012 and 2014. 

He’s looking to follow up one of his finest seasons in the league after he hit .280 with a career-high 18 home runs and 68 RBI while being ranked 17th in the league in WAR, per Pavlovic. 

The Giants have been a busy team already this offseason, having signed big-name free agents such as pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija while re-signing shortstop Brandon Crawford to a six-year deal. 

Those three signatures alone cost around $285 million this offseason, but Giants management told Pavlovic that it has enough space to sign Belt to a “significant extension.”

The team might be hesitant to sign Belt to big money, though, because of his troubles staying on the field. He’s never played in more than 150 games in a season, as he’s suffered three concussions, a broken thumb and, most recently, underwent knee surgery during the offseason to repair a torn meniscus. 

That kind of track record could deter the Giants and Belt from agreeing to a deal. Per Pavlovic, the two parties have already had difficulties in negotiations during the arbitration process, and if they don’t find a middle ground in the next year or so, then it will become difficult to keep Belt in San Francisco. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The San Francisco Giants did what they needed to do with their starting rotation this winter, rebuilding it into a unit strong enough to put them back atop the NL West.

But now, their rebuilt rotation is having trouble even surviving spring training.

On paper, what’s there still looks good. Madison Bumgarner, Major League Baseball’s most Hugh Glass-ian ace, and the $220 million dynamic duo of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija form an impressive trio. Bringing up the rear is former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and perfect-game maestro Matt Cain. 

“I can’t think, in all my years, where we were this solid,” Giants skipper Bruce Bochy said of his rotation last month to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. “And that’s saying a lot, because we’ve had some very good rotations here. But when you add two guys like this, they make you that much better.”

Following a modest 84-win season in which Bumgarner basically had to do it all on his own, the Giants’ 2016 rotation will indeed be a dandy if all goes well. Call it a hunch crossed with some well-calculated numbers, as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus both offer strong projections.

But the Giants rotation is making it hard to have faith in the “if all goes well” part. Its spring training performance has led to this table full of eye-poppingly large numbers:

The good news? There are some small sample sizes here. Bumgarner, Cueto and Cain have combined for fewer starts than Samardzija and Peavy.

The bad news? Health woes are responsible for that. Bumgarner lost reps to foot and ribcage issues. Cain just recently returned to active duty after having surgery on his right arm. Concerns over Cueto’s workload delayed his spring debut, and he recently took a line drive to his dreadlocked noggin.

In times like these, our instincts tell us to stand in front of a mirror, say “it’s only spring training” three times and wait for the spring training fairy to show up with a reassuring pat on the back. But last week, even Bochy was starting to feel uncomfortable.

“All these guys, we think we’ll have them ready,” Bochy said, per Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. “At the same time, the margin of error is getting cut back a little bit.”

There is one reason for everyone to chill. The ugliest number up there is the rotation’s 9.76 ERA, but Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs tells us that spring ERAs are “completely useless” as a predictive tool.

As for which spring stats are predictive for pitchers, strikeout and walk rates pass the grade. To this end, Bumgarner suddenly doesn’t look so shabby next to his 9-0 K/BB ratio in 7.2 innings. And with a 4-2 K/BB in 4.1 innings, Cueto could be doing a lot worse.

It’s too bad that’s only 40 percent of San Francisco’s starting rotation. With the other 60 percent, it’s not quite as easy to think in terms of rainbows, gumdrops and sunshine.

Samardzija’s strikeout issues are a continuation of a not-so-awesome trend that’s been ongoing since 2012. And when his strikeout rate finally dipped below league average in 2015, he failed to prove he could survive with so many extra balls in play. In posting an ugly 4.96 ERA, he led the American League in hits (228) and home runs (29) allowed.

It doesn’t take a good pair of spectacles to see Samardzija’s root problem. High-velocity fastballs from him used to be as common as misspellings of his surname, but Brooks Baseball shows his fastball velocity is also declining.

And as Eno Sarris of FanGraphs observed last week, the radar gun had further troubling news to report during Samardzija’s shellacking at the hands of the Seattle Mariners:

As Mike Fast found at Baseball Prospectus in 2011, spring training velocity readings can indeed carry over into the regular season. If that happens with Samardzija, the $90 million roll of the dice the Giants made on his 2015 season being an outlier could turn out snake eyes.

In a way, the concerns about Samardzija extend to Peavy.

The 34-year-old’s velocity is long gone, and his strikeout ability is following suit. And though he managed a 3.58 ERA despite that in 2015, the 27 hits he’s allowed this spring look like a warning. The curiously low .267 BABIP he posted last year puts him in line for a harsh regression. It seems it’s already begun.

Small sample size be damned, it’s probably safe to put Cain in the same boat as Peavy. 

The 31-year-old’s velocity and strikeouts are also past their prime. And though we’re only looking at one start, the ease with which he was hit is in line with his reality in recent seasons. Between 2009 and 2013, he allowed 7.4 hits per nine innings. Since 2014, that figured has jumped to 9.1.

The recent realities department also makes it harder to ignore Cueto’s rough spring. The nine hits he’s allowed in his 4.1 innings call to mind the many hits—101 in 81.1 innings, to be exact—he gave up as a Kansas City Royal last summer. That didn’t stop the Giants from spending $130 million on him, but he hasn’t erased the questions about whether he deserved that much.

If poor performances don’t bring down the Giants rotation, maybe injuries will.

That concern definitely applies to Cain, whose arm injury this spring is a reminder of the setbacks that have limited him to just 26 starts over the last two seasons. Peavy’s track record of injury proneness extends even further. He’s averaged only 23 starts per season since 2008.

Cueto and Bumgarner may not be safe either. Though it sounds like his head is fine, the way in which Cueto has been pampered this spring calls to mind his history of shoulder trouble and the questions orbiting around his right elbow. And though durability has been one of Bumgarner’s many virtues, he’s racked up enough mileage to suggest that maybe this spring’s aches and pains are overdue.

Thus concludes our look at the many excuses to freak out about what’s going on with the Giants rotation this spring. Exactly how much everyone should be freaking out, though, is another question.

The answer isn’t “a lot.” As bad as it all sounds, we’re still only talking about spring training. Even things that have some predictive powers aren’t foolproof, and even the cruddiest pitching staffs during the spring can go on to do great things. Look no further than last year’s Chicago Cubs.

But the answer isn’t “not at all” either. 

Look closely at the projections above, and you get a picture of a model rotation. Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija are projected to post ERAs in the 2.70-3.40 range and eat a bunch of innings. Peavy and Cain, for their part, are expected to be perfectly serviceable back-end starters with ERAs in the 3.60-4.10 range across decent innings totals.

But like with the Royals and what’s expected of them in 2016, this is one of those situations where the projections should be served with a grain of salt or two. The Giants rotation may look like a model group in theory, but reality is and always has been another story.

In theory, the Giants rotation has three of the best pitchers in baseball up top. In reality, that front three contains one legit star and two stars who are teetering on the edge of being fallen stars. In theory, the Giants are lucky to have two pitchers like Peavy and Cain at the back end. In reality, the Giants will be lucky if either their health or their performances allow them to stay at the back end.

There’s no escaping the notion that the Giants rotation was due for a reality check eventually. That’s what they’ve been hit with this spring, with the only real surprise being Bumgarner’s involvement in it. Aside from that, well, it all adds up.

An optimist will say that it’s better for reality checks to happen during spring training than in the regular season or the postseason. And hey, not even Negative Nellies like ourselves are going to deny that.

But all the same, the Giants must now hope that what’s happened in spring training will stay in spring training. Otherwise, the top of the NL West could continue to elude them.

Regular-season stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com.

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