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The Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t get in on what was possibly the best season ever for second basemen in 2016. Chase Utley and others didn’t provide much hitting, baserunning or defense.

Sounds like a good excuse to target a guy who can give them all three, and the first one especially: Brian Dozier.

In this context, his name may stand out most because he’s not Ian Kinsler. The Detroit Tigers‘ veteran second baseman is the one the Dodgers have been most often linked to on the hot-stove rumor mill. 

But as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported, the Dodgers also have Dozier on their radar. And, shoot, why wouldn’t they?

The Minnesota Twins‘ 29-year-old All-Star is coming off a career year that featured an .886 OPS, 42 home runs and 18 stolen bases. With his contract running out and the Twins in need of more young building blocks, even Dozier wasn’t blindsided when he was asked about a possible trade in September.

“Oh, really?” he told Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, apparently with his tongue firmly in his cheek. “I don’t read too much into that. All I can know is I’m here for two more years.”

From the sound of things, a deal between the Twins and Dodgers is nowhere close to being done. Here’s Berardino with a recent report:

There’s no indication the Dodgers are close to a deal for Kinsler, either. We’ve already discussed how his talent and the $21 million remaining on his contract make for a high price tag. And since the Dodgers are on his no-trade list, he’ll only accept a deal if additional money is involved.

Dozier doesn’t have no-trade protection, but that doesn’t necessarily make him easier to acquire.

With plenty of talent of his own and only $15 million remaining on his contract, the Dodgers would likely have to surrender at least one of their blue-chip prospects for Dozier—say, Cody Bellinger, Jose De Leon, Alex Verdugo or Grant Holmes.

However, it’s not like the Dodgers can find a stand-in for Kinsler or Dozier on the open market. The second base aisle is barren. And if they’re going to trade for one of them, Dozier’s the one they should be leaning toward.

Nothing against Kinsler. He’s been a great player his whole career and hasn’t slowed down as he’s advanced into his 30s. The 34-year-old has produced 17.8 wins above replacement since 2013, second only to Jose Altuve among second basemen. He finally won an overdue Gold Glove in 2016.

But on that last point, defense is the one thing Kinsler has done better than Dozier over the last three seasons:

Nothing against defense, either, but it’s not one of the Dodgers’ major needs. They finished tied for fourth in defensive efficiency in 2016, according to Baseball Prospectus. This despite the fact the advanced metrics rated Utley as a mediocre defender at second base.

Where second base really failed the Dodgers is at the plate, producing just a .723 OPS and 18 homers. Kinsler and Dozier both have the bats to fix that, but the extra appeal in Dozier’s bat is hard to miss.

The 42 homers he slugged in 2016 are 10 more than Kinsler’s ever hit in a season. They also kept alive a trend of Dozier’s home run total increasing in each of his five major league seasons. He started with a humble six in 2012 and has gone to 18 to 23 to 28 to 42.

It’s all in Dozier’s approach. His consistently above-average walk rates reflect his strong plate discipline, and his swing is made to get the ball in the air to his pull side. His ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio has settled well below 1.0, and nobody has pulled the ball as frequently as he has since 2014.

As Dozier’s career .246 average can vouch, his approach isn’t good for hitting for average. But with a solid .320 career on-base percentage to go with all his power, he rightfully doesn’t care about that.

“I can look at my average and see I’m hitting .250-something,” he told David Laurila of FanGraphs in August, “but if I can get on base at a .350 clip, versus a guy who’s hitting .300 and getting on base .330….300 doesn’t matter. If you can find ways to get on base and create runs, you’re being productive. In my opinion, that’s how you evaluate a player.”

The one thing Dozier doesn’t have is booming raw power, which does loom as a red flag regarding a potential move from Target Field to Dodger Stadium.

But courtesy of Baseball Savant, we see that most of the home runs he’s hit in his career would have cleared Dodger Stadium’s dimensions just fine:

Dozier’s other appeal is that he’s a right-handed batter who crushes left-handed pitching. He owns an .854 career OPS against southpaws and just peaked with a .965 OPS against them in 2016.

A hitter like that is something the Dodgers sorely need after posting an MLB-worst .622 OPS against lefties in 2016. And given that their second basemen posted just a .586 OPS against lefties, second base is an ideal place to slot an upgrade.

After all this, Dozier’s other qualities come off as welcome bonuses.

He’s an excellent baserunner, stealing his 74 career bases in 99 tries with plenty of extra value on the side. Since 2014, only seven players have accumulated more total baserunning value than Dozier.

And while Dozier’s not on Kinsler’s level defensively, he’s no slouch. The metrics have been largely positive on his defense. If nothing else, the Inside Edge data shows he’s money at making routine plays.

The Dodgers have the right idea in having Kinsler and Dozier on their radar as fixes for what ails them at second base. They’re two of the game’s best second basemen.

But since their prices are probably equal and the Dodgers need offense more than defense, Dozier’s the one for them. Lucky for them, they still have plenty of time to strike a deal.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Payroll and contract information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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If the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to dangle some starting pitchers on the winter trade market, they can rest easy knowing they at least have some name value to attract interested parties.

There’s Zack Greinke, who needs no introduction. There’s also Shelby Miller, who used to be good. Ditto with Patrick Corbin. Then there’s Taijuan Walker and Archie Bradley, two former top prospects who still have youth on their side.

Interested parties could, however, choose to skip past them and go to the [suppresses urge to type “Diamondback in the Rough”] diamond in the rough: Robbie Ray.

The Diamondbacks may already be expecting as much. After all, the word from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is that they’re expecting interest in all of their young starters to pick up:

This adds up. In trading 2016 All-Star Jean Segura to the Seattle Mariners for Walker last week, new general manager Mike Hazen has already begun remaking a roster that produced just 69 wins in 2016. And with talented starters in short supply on the free-agent market, the Diamondbacks’ arms are bound to draw a crowd eventually. If they aren’t already, of course.

For the reasons referenced above, Hazen will get calls about Greinke, Miller, Corbin, Walker and Bradley. But Ray’s the guy who’s most likely to send the phone ringing off the proverbial hook. 

Reason No. 1: The left-hander is still only 25 with four years of club control left.

Reason No. 2: He’s very talented.

A surface-level examination of Ray’s career will raise questions about the second point. He only managed a 4.90 ERA in his 32 starts in 2016. Before that, he was a throw-in in two trades involving Doug Fister and Didi Gregorius. Before that, he was a fringey prospect after he was picked in the 12th round of the 2010 draft.

But for all the nits to pick, there’s a redeeming quality from Ray’s 2016 season that’s impossible to overlook. He struck out 218 batters in 174.1 innings. That’s 11.25 per nine innings, which was second only to the late Jose Fernandez among qualified starters.

Also, one of the best single-season marks ever for a left-hander:

Since strikeouts generally don’t happen by accident, nobody should be surprised to hear Ray’s didn’t.

After debuting with an average fastball of 91.3 miles per hour in 2014, he cranked it up to 94.1 mph in 2016. Some of that could be his coming into his physical prime. As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted last year, it may also be coming from his abandoning a higher arm slot in favor of a more natural sidearm delivery.

Ray’s money pitch, however, is his slider. Its velocity has risen as well, from 81.1 mph in 2014 to 85.1 mph in 2016. Brooks Baseball shows he also buried more sliders below the knees, like so:

The result: Ray’s slider had the eighth-highest whiff-per-swing rate of any slider thrown by any starter, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Ray’s stuff would be attractive under any circumstances. His youth makes it even more attractive. The lack of starters who offer either of these qualities on the open market makes it more enticing still.

Of course, this raises the question of why the Diamondbacks wouldn’t prefer to keep him. There’s indeed a good chance they will. But the reason they could take advantage of Ray’s trade value now traces back to the essential truth reflected in the 4.90 ERA he posted this past season:

His talent comes with fatal flaws.

One is his control, which has produced mediocre walks-per-nine rates in the 3.5-3.7 range. That would be fine if he could at least avoid hard contact in between strikeouts and walks. But that was as big a problem as his 1.24 HR/9 and .352 batting average on balls in play from 2016 would indicate.

Per Baseball Savant, Ray was among the worst in the league with average exit velocity of 90.7 mph. This points to how his command is as big a question mark as his control. The bulk of the damage came on his heat, which he located with a noticeable pattern across the middle of the strike zone.

That’s a bad idea in general, and an even worse idea against right-handed batters. They hit .278 with 14 homers off Ray’s heat in 2016. Lo and behold, he ended the year with the following platoon split:

• Against LHB: .684 OPS, 3 HR
• Against RHB: .797 OPS, 21 HR

Say it with me now: Yikes.

Mind you, maybe Ray’s iffy fastball command wouldn’t be such a problem against right-handed batters if he had something to change speeds with. But he doesn’t. He’s largely scrapped his changeup, throwing it only 5.7 percent of the time in 2016.

The fact that Ray is basically a two-pitch pitcher leads to yet another problem. This one was covered by FanGraphs‘ August Fagerstrom, with the short version being: Ray’s predictability makes life very difficult the third time through the batting order.

All told, Ray is a strange creature. He’s done enough to turn into an overpowering starter, but he still needs quite a bit of work to turn into a truly dominant starter. 

And yet, this strange set of circumstances makes him the perfect trade chip for this winter’s market. The upside contained in his ability and controllability could have teams lining up to trade for him, and his faults could keep his price tag well below those of guys like Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander.

To boot, there’s a number of ways a trade for Ray could work out.

If he irons out his issues, he could turn into a top-of-the-rotation starter. If not, he’d be a candidate to make like Andrew Miller and turn his fastball-slider combo into a life as a relief ace. Failing that, he could make like Brett Cecil and turn into an elite lefty specialist.

The bottom line is that Ray’s arm ought to be on the radar of every team desperate for pitching this winter. With so few options available elsewhere, it’s a good one to try to take a chance on.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

What a difference a year makes.

Last winter, Zack Greinke was baseball’s reigning ERA king and arguably the offseason’s hottest free-agent commodity. The Los Angeles Dodgers wanted him back. The San Francisco Giants wanted to pry him away.

Greinke ultimately, and somewhat surprisingly, signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for six years and $206.5 million.

Now, after his ERA ballooned to 4.37 during a deflating season in the desert, Greinke is an albatross.

The $34 million he’s owed next season could swallow more than a third of the Diamondbacks’ total budget, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney noted. 

That’s the mess new D-backs general manager Mike Hazen inherited. His task is to mop it up, per Olney:

…as Hazen establishes himself with the Diamondbacks, perhaps he could do what his predecessor would have never been in position to do: persuade ownership to dump Greinke and as much of his contract as possible, even if it means eating some of his salary in the years ahead. Greinke’s contract is already a serious impediment for Hazen, as he goes about his work of trying to build a consistent winner in Arizona, and the problem might only get worse if Greinke’s performance continues to decline next season.

It won’t be easy. The Diamondbacks would walk away from any Greinke trade with some egg on their face. On Nov. 9, Hazen said the team is “fully anticipating that Zack is going to be back next year,” per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert.

If they can shed a portion of his salary, though, and net a couple of decent prospects, they should jump at the chance.

Despite his down year, Greinke has upside. Between 2013 and 2015, his 13.5 WAR ranks eighth among big league pitchers, according to FanGraphs’ measure.

He’s 33, which means this decline could be real and permanent. But he’s also one season removed from leading MLB in ERA (1.66), ERA+ (222) and WHIP (0.844).

If there were an entry in the dictionary for “high risk, high reward,” it would be a picture of Greinke’s grinning visage.

The only realistic suitors are clubs with gaudy budgets and fertile farms. From that group, three emerge as the most logical. Let’s examine each, and the packages they may be willing to offer.

It’s all speculation at this point, but it should be high on Hazen and Arizona’s due-diligence list. 

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been in rebuild mode since the 2016 trade deadline, jettisoning expensive veterans and adding young talent to a minor league system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 1 in the game. 

Taking on a chunk of Greinke’s salary and giving up prospects for the privilege would be a redirect, to say the least.

New York, though, is always in win-now mode. The Bronx faithful demand it. Its rotation is sketchy after ace Masahiro Tanaka, with mercurial right-hander Michael Pineda, creaky veteran southpaw CC Sabathia and a muddled cast of youngsters filling in the picture.  

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe name-dropped New York among possible Greinke landing spots. Joe Giglio of NJ Advance Media likewise said the Yanks “loom as a possibility” in the Greinke sweepstakes.

New York should refuse to part with any of its top prospects—a group headlined by outfielder Clint Frazier and shortstop Gleyber Torres—even if the D-backs are willing to pick up half of Greinke’s tab or more.

A mid-tier name such as 20-year-old right-hander Drew Finley—the Yankees’ No. 19 prospect, per MLB.com—along with a throw-in player and an offer to absorb the bulk of Greinke’s salary should get the Diamondbacks’ attention.

Still, given New York’s current trajectory, we’ll put the likelihood of this at somewhere between “low” and “not gonna happen.”

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox don’t need to add an ace-level arm with recently minted AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello and David Price already in the fold.

After a disappointing division-series sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians, however, it’s a safe bet president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will have his eyes out for upgrades to any facet of the roster.

Like New York, Boston has a loaded farm system and a hefty payroll. Hazen, meanwhile, was the Sox’s GM last season, so he presumably has a direct line to Dombrowski.

Top prospects such as infielder Yoan Moncada and outfielder Andrew Benintendi shouldn’t even enter the conversation. Perhaps someone like lanky lefty Trey Ball, ranked as the Sox’s No. 14 prospect by MLB.com, or a high-upside gamble like 19-year-old Dominican outfielder Yoan Aybar could whet Arizona’s appetite.

If Boston is going to swing a trade for a starter, it could set its sights on other targets, including the Chicago White Sox‘s Chris Sale or the Detroit Tigers‘ Justin Verlander, as I recently outlined. Greinke would likely come at a lower cost in talent, though, if not dollars.

OK, now the soggy blanket: The Red Sox will pay Price $30 million for at least the next two seasons, at which point the lefty can opt out. They also need to fill the David Ortiz-sized hole in the middle of their lineup. Shelling out for a significant portion of Greinke’s contract would strain the purse strings.

Plus, with both New York and Boston, there’s the question of whether a move to the hitter-happy AL East would help Greinke get his mojo back.

Los Angeles Dodgers

They say you can’t go home again, but the Dodgers and Greinke could test that axiom.

It’s more than a wild fancy. L.A. “expressed interest” in trading for Greinke in August after he cleared waivers, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

The talks “were not substantive and did not advance,” according to Rosenthal’s sources. Still, it shows the door to a Greinke-Dodgers reunion is cracked open.

Ace Clayton Kershaw returned strong from a back injury that cost him two months in 2016, and Japanese import Kenta Maeda was a steady No. 2.

Trade-deadline acquisition Rich Hill is a free agent, however, and the rest of the Dodgers rotation is a mishmash of promising-but-untested youngsters (Julio Urias), middling veterans (Scott Kazmir) and uncertain injury comebacks (Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu). 

Simply putting a Dodgers uniform on won’t return Greinke to his former glory. There are causes for cautious optimism, though.

The Dodgers had the third-best team defense in the NL—and all of baseball—in 2016, while the D-backs had the Senior Circuit’s second-worst, per FanGraphs. Arizona’s Chase Field was baseball’s second-most hitter-friendly yard, per ESPN’s Park Factors statistic, while Dodger Stadium was the second-least. 

That’s not to suggest all of Greinke’s 2016 struggles can be pinned on shoddy defense or his home-field disadvantage. It’s possible, however, that a return to Chavez Ravine could rekindle his All-Star flame.

Like Boston and New York, Los Angeles could hang on to its top MiLB talent and still put together an enticing package. Catcher Austin Barnes—an Arizona State alum and the team’s No. 10 prospect, per MLB.com—would make for a nice centerpiece, as would 21-year-old right-hander and No. 8 prospect Jordan Sheffield. 

The biggest impediment, however, may be the Dodgers’ financial situation.

L.A. boasted baseball’s highest payroll in 2016, but the team is under pressure to tighten its belt to conform to MLB’s debt rules, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. 

That could hinder the club’s ability to bring back key free agents such as third baseman Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen, let alone shoulder part of Greinke’s contract. 

The safe bet is on Greinke staying put. The Diamondbacks should keep asking, however, and see if they find a pliable taker.

Last winter’s prize has become this offseason’s toxic asset. What a difference a year makes.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Longtime Brooklyn Dodgers pitcher Ralph Branca died Wednesday at the age of 90.

Bobby Valentine, a former MLB manager and husband to Branca’s daughter, Mary, announced the news on Twitter: “One of the greatest guys to ever throw a pitch or sing a song is [no] longer with us. Ralph Branca passed this morning. In his 91st year on earth he left us with [the] same dignity and grace that defined his [every day] on earth. He will be truly missed!!!”

Branca is famous for surrendering the “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” home run to Bobby Thomson in 1951, which delivered the New York Giants the National League pennant.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports and MLB Network was among those who reacted to the news of Branca’s death:

Jay Jaffe of SI.com also chimed in, praising Branca for the manner in which he handled a situation that otherwise could have defined him negatively:

Branca pitched for the Dodgers from 1944 through 1953 before enjoying brief stints with the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. He returned to Brooklyn for one final appearance in 1956 before retiring at the age of 30.

The Mount Vernon, New York, native posted a career record of 88-68 with a 3.79 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 829 strikeouts in 1,484 innings.

He made the All-Star team each year from 1947 through 1949. His best season came in 1947, when he went 21-12 with a 2.67 ERA and finished 11th in the MVP voting.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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It’s November. That means turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie and Evan Longoria to the Los Angeles Dodgers rumors.

Here’s one, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi:

OK, that’s less a rumor and more informed speculation. And maybe Longoria-to-L.A. talk isn’t quite as inevitable as Thanksgiving.

The Dodgers trading for Longoria makes a share of sense, though. It’s also not a new idea.

Rumblings about the Tampa Bay Rays third baseman heading to Southern California cropped up at the 2016 trade deadline, per Morosi. At the time, however, the Dodgers employed Justin Turner at the hot corner.

Now, Turner is a free agent. The Dodgers have a hole to fill. Cue the Longoria chatter.

“Our most acute needs as we head into the offseason are the roles previously occupied by our two free agents,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. “We have to figure out what we’re doing at third base, and figure out an anchor for the back of the pen.”

Longoria is more than just any third baseman. He’s a three-time All-Star coming off a superlative season that saw him hit .273 with a career-high 36 home runs and 98 RBI.

He has ties to Friedman, who was general manager in Tampa Bay when the then-Devil Rays drafted Longoria with the third overall pick in 2006. Plus, he was born and raised in SoCal.

Longoria has six years and about $100 million left on his deal, but the Dodgers have baseball’s highest payroll. The Rays will likely expect a strong return of young talent, but the Dodgers have a deep farm system.

The dots connect. In fact, it seems like a borderline perfect marriage.

Here’s the central question, though: Is Longoria preferable to Turner? The Dodgers could simply re-sign their old third baseman, after all.

To begin, let’s stack the two players’ 2016 stats next to each other:

There’s remarkable symmetry, especially when you consider both players are right-handed swingers who were born in Southern California within a year of each other.

If we zoom back a tad, however, Turner gains an edge.

Between 2014 and 2016, Turner’s WAR (12.8) was higher than Longoria’s (11.9) by FanGraphs’ measure. Turner has also been a superior defender over the past two seasons, posting a 16.7 ultimate zone rating compared to Longoria’s 7.7.

Turning to the projection systems, Steamer foretells a .263/.324/.460 slash line for Longoria and a .285/.354/.466 line for Turner in 2017. 

That’s not to suggest Longoria is chopped liver. He’d slot nicely into a Dodgers lineup that features reigning National League Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, powerful center fielder Joc Pederson and veteran pieces such as first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and catcher Yasmani Grandal. 

In terms of dollars, Turner should command more than the $13 million Longoria is owed in 2017 and may well eclipse his average annual value for the next few seasons in a weak free-agent class. Something in line with the five years, $95 million the Boston Red Sox gave Pablo Sandoval in 2014 seems attainable.

Longoria, on the other hand, will cost more than cash. The Dodgers will also have to part with high-upside prospects to land him.

The small-market Rays are always seeking to shed salary, but even if the Dodgers eat all the money, they’ll have to dip into their MiLB stash.

That’s where the scales truly tip toward Turner. If he and Longoria are roughly the same player, why give up payroll and trade chips for one when the other will require only money?

Los Angeles will have to battle other suitors, possibly including the archrival San Francisco Giants, per Morosi. 

The Dodgers should make Turner a priority, though, and consider Longoria a distant plan B. The best move isn’t always the splashiest or the one that commands the most headlines.

Sometimes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

To put it in Thanksgiving terms: Longoria is the stuffing, Turner is the turkey. Gobble, gobble.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Before the San Francisco Giants‘ run of even-year championships was killed by their bullpen at the end of 2016, it was wounded by their lack of power.

Their leading home run hitter was Brandon Belt, who cranked just 17 homers. 17. The bullpen shouldn’t be forgotten, but this is also a problem that needs fixing this winter.

It seems the Giants have just the guy in mind.

It’s not Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo or any of the top free-agent sluggers. It’s on the trade market that the Giants have their eyes, specifically on Detroit Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez. This from Jon Morosi on MLB Network: 

The recommended dosage of salt to take this with might be more than a grain. As Morosi went on to note, the talks between the Giants and Tigers occurred at last week’s general managers meetings and “have yet to advance beyond initial stage.”

However, Martinez’s availability is not in question. Tigers general manager Al Avila promised in October (via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press) that “changes are coming” as the club seeks to go from old and expensive to young and cheap. Trading Martinez, 29, would help the process.

Also not in question is why the Giants would be interested in a player like Martinez.

With Angel Pagan off the books, one of the needs the Giants must fill this winter is in left field. That would also be a good place for them to add some power to a lineup that produced only 130 home runs in 2016, third fewest in MLB. Pagan and other Giants left fielders hit only 14 home runs.

Martinez would seem to have just the power bat for the job. After sputtering out of the gate with the Houston Astros in the first three seasons of his career, he changed his swing and has produced a .540 slugging percentage and 83 home runs over the last three seasons.

Martinez peaked with 38 homers in 2015. Remember the last time the Giants had a guy hit that many home runs? It was in 2004. Some guy named Barry Bonds. 

Before we go any further, let’s be careful not to mischaracterize Martinez as a perfect player.

For one, his defense is a question mark at best and a black hole at worst. Defensive runs saved (minus-22) and ultimate zone rate (minus-17.2) rated him as a terrible right fielder in 2016. That’s out of line with how he rated in 2015 but in line with how he’s rated in right field and left field his entire career. 

For two, Martinez has an Achilles’ heel when he’s in the box. He swings and misses a lot, striking out in 26.1 percent of his plate appearances over the last three seasons. So don’t read too much into his .299 average in this span. He’s not as advanced a hitter as that makes him look.

But more so than many other teams—maybe more so than every other team—the Giants are in a position to hide Martinez’s shortcomings.

Pagan aside, the Giants will be returning every key member of a truly great defense in 2017. According to Baseball Prospectus, the only National League team better than the Giants at turning batted balls into outs in 2016 was the Chicago Cubs. They of the historically awesome defense.

The Giants can thus afford to swallow a defensive downgrade in left field if it means getting more offense. And on that front, taking on Martinez would not require an already strikeout-prone lineup to get even worse. The Giants had the lowest strikeout rate in the National League in 2016. They can afford a net loss in that department.

As long as Martinez were to keep the power coming, of course.

This is where I was initially feeling skeptical about their interest in Martinez. The danger of acquiring him, after all, would be paying a heavy price for his power and then watching AT&T Park suffocate it with its sheer AT&T Park-ness.

But courtesy of Baseball Savant, here’s a picture that eases that concern:

These are all the home runs Martinez has hit over the last three years overlaid onto AT&T Park’s dimensions. The only area where he would have lost home runs is in triples alley. And if a player is going to lose home runs anywhere, it may as well be in a place that’s called “triples alley” for a reason.

It’s not surprising Martinez’s recent dinger prowess passes the AT&T Park test. He doesn’t get cheated. Over the past three seasons, only two players have made hard contact at a higher rate:

1. David Ortiz: 44.2%
2. Giancarlo Stanton: 43.3%
3. J.D. Martinez: 42.4%

The obligatory buzzkill is the Giants can’t have Martinez for free. But with just one year left on his contract, he’s not the kind of guy who’s going to require some kind of massive commitment. And with an $11.75 million salary headed his way, he’s not grossly underpaid either.

As such, the Giants shouldn’t have to send their entire farm system to the Tigers to get their man. Jason Beck of MLB.com floated the possibility of the Tigers getting one of the Giants’ top outfield prospects (Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker, Austin Slater) and/or a young pitcher (Tyler Beede).

As much as the Giants would probably prefer to hang on to their young talent, they’re in no position to get stubborn.

With Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto leading their rotation and Buster Posey, Belt and Hunter Pence leading their lineup, the Giants are very much in win-now mode. They’re precisely the kind of team that should be interested in surrendering prospects for an immediate upgrade. And if they get Martinez, they would then only need to go shopping for bullpen arms on an offseason market that has plenty of them.

Of course, they don’t necessarily need to get Martinez first. But at some point, the Giants should push their talks with the Tigers beyond the “initial stage.”

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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The San Francisco Giants need to bolster their bullpen.

The Giants know it. Every other team knows it. Your second cousin who’s wrapped up in the election and doesn’t really follow baseball knows it.

Luckily for San Francisco, there are a handful of elite closers available in an otherwise-tepid free-agent pool. The Giants, conventional wisdom suggests, will make a strong push to sign Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon.

Here’s a thought: What if they signed two of them?

No, it won’t be cheap. Chapman is seeking a deal in the $100 million range, per Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. He probably won’t get it, but it gives you a sense of where negotiations will begin.

Is it worth it for San Francisco, or any team, to blow most of its offseason capital on a couple of relievers?

Yes, if they are the right relievers.

The Giants have other needs, to be sure. They hit the third-fewest home runs (130) last season and scored the fourth-fewest runs after the All-Star break. They’ve also got an impending hole in left field. 

They could address both issues by signing Yoenis Cespedes, who opted out of his contract with the New York Mets.

The Cuban slugger would instantly upgrade San Francisco’s offense, no argument there. He’s also 31 years old and could command $150 million. 

Really, the Giants lineup isn’t in terrible shape. The team has a homegrown infield core of catcher Buster Posey, shortstop Brandon Crawford, first baseman Brandon Belt and second baseman Joe Panik.

Right fielder Hunter Pence missed more than 50 games to injury in 2016. If he can stay healthy, his reliable 20-plus-homer pop will provide a boost.

The Giants also have hopes for the young duo of Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson, who have shown promise in limited action and could take over in left.

In the rotation, meanwhile, San Francisco is stacked with ace Madison Bumgarner, co-ace Johnny Cueto, lefty Matt Moore, righty Jeff Samardzija and last year’s surprise rookie, Ty Blach.

Which brings us back to the bullpen. Overall, Giants relievers ranked exactly in the middle of the pack in 2016 with a 3.65 ERA. But closer Santiago Casilla wilted as the season progressed and finished with an untenable eight blown saves.

By the time the playoffs rolled around, San Francisco was counting on an ill-defined committee, which collapsed in spectacular fashion in Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs.

The Giants enter 2017 in need of reinforcements. Casilla is a free agent, along with setup man Sergio Romo and lefty specialist Javier Lopez, all of whom were key parts of San Francisco’s 2010, 2012 and 2014 title runs. 

San Francisco recently met with representatives for Chapman, Jansen and Melancon, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. 

That’s no shock, but it doesn’t explain why the Giants would go for more than one of them.

For that, you need to look to the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians, who proved in 2015 and 2016 how far a loaded bullpen can carry you.

In 2015, Kansas City rode the trio of Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis to a title. This year, the Indians overcame a depleted rotation and made it to Game 7 of the World Series thanks to the 1-2 bullpen buzzsaw of closer Cody Allen and super-setup man Andrew Miller.

It’s the new model. The secret sauce for clubs seeking October success. 

The Giants—with their competent lineup, strong starting rotation and No. 2-ranked team defense—could replicate it.

Imagine, for a moment, if San Francisco inked Jansen and Melancon. The former was an All-Star last season for the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 1.83 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 68.2 innings. Melancon, meanwhile, put up a 1.64 ERA in 71.1 innings with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals. 

Melancon is 31 and Jansen 29. A long-term commitment to either would carry risk on the back end. Same goes for the 28-year-old Chapman, whose triple-digit heater and 1.55 ERA in 58 innings are offset from an optics standpoint by the domestic violence suspension that cost him 30 games in 2016.

And there’s always the issue of convincing a closer to accept a setup role.

Still, there’s upside aplenty, as McCovey Chronicles’ Grant Brisbee spelled out:

While the Giants will hopefully be active on the Mark Melancon and Kenley Jansen market, there’s a small, unrealistic part of me that wants both of them. That’s how to build a not-so-secret postseason weapon. Have one guy who can lock down the ninth inning (and eighth, too, if it’s October), and have one guy who can float around and be an automatic face card to slip in whatever hand you’re dealt.

There are other routes the Giants could go. General manager Bobby Evans was in attendance at Holland’s recent showcase, as the former Kansas City closer works his way back from Tommy John surgery, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Holland looked healthy, Sherman notes, though he’s yet to regain his mid-90s velocity.

His agent, Scott Boras, suggested Holland “would be ideal for a lot of teams who cannot do the five- or six-year commitment it might take for three guys out on the market,” per Sherman.

San Francisco could also give closing duties to an in-house option such as Hunter Strickland, whose fastball tickles 100 mph. 

There’s wiggle room, and the Giants shouldn’t dismiss the notion of targeting a bat like Cespedes. 

But this is a chance to be bold and, yes, a little reckless. Picture Strickland in the seventh followed by Melancon and Jansen. Or perhaps Holland if the Giants believe he’s healthy, or Chapman if they can get past his baggage and if his price inches down.

That’s the type of pen that could propel a club to glory. For the Giants, it could erase the bad taste of last season’s early playoff exit and maybe even bring another trophy home to the Bay.

It’ll take a boatload of cash. It’ll depend on the pitchers in question spurning other suitors, of which there will be many. 

Why not take a crack, though?

It’s an odd year. What have they got to lose?

All statistics courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers need another ace. They have a deep farm system. And the free-agent starting pitching cupboard is basically bare.

Add those disparate facts up and what do you get?

Possibly Chris Sale plying his trade in Southern California.

It’s pure speculation at this point. But the Dodgers targeted Sale at the 2016 trade deadline and were willing to dangle prized young left-hander Julio Urias, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

The deal never materialized, and Sale finished out the season with the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers, meanwhile, advanced to the National League Championship Series but fell to the eventual champion Chicago Cubs, in part because their depleted rotation ran out of fuel.

Now, imagine Sale paired with Los Angeles ace Clayton Kershaw. That’s two of the top southpaws in baseball, and a 1-2 buzz saw that could push the Dodgers over the top.

Will Sale be moved?

It’s no sure thing, but this much is clear: After four straight losing seasons and an eight-year postseason drought, it’s time for the White Sox to engineer a course correction. 

“We aren’t approaching this offseason thinking we can make a couple of short-term tweaks to put us in position to win on a sustainable basis,” general manager Rick Hahn said recently, per Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. “We intend to make a firmer commitment to a direction to put ourselves in a better long-term position.”

Translating from GM speak, that means the Sox could be sellers. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has heard from multiple rival executives that “Hahn is open for business on just about his entire roster.”

Sale is Hahn’s shiniest item.

The 27-year-old five-time All-Star has eclipsed 200 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons and thrown more than 200 innings in three of them. He’s averaged 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings since his debut in 2010, the sixth-highest total among active pitchers. 

Most importantly, he’s under contract for the next three seasons, for $12 million in 2017, a $12.5 million team option in 2018 and a $13.5 million team option in 2019. In a world where the Arizona Diamondbacks paid Zack Greinke $34 million to post a plus-4.00 ERA, that’s an unequivocal bargain.

The sticker shock will be real. The Dodgers would likely have to part with multiple prospects from a farm system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 6 in the game.

That could include one of Urias and right-hander Jose DeLeon and a top position player such as power hitting outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger or touted 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Yusniel Diaz. 

That’s a lot to give up. But the Dodgers need to bolster their rotation—period.

Last year, injuries decimated their starting corps like henchmen in a James Bond flick. By the time the playoffs arrived, they rolled with a three-man unit of Kershaw, Japanese import Kenta Maeda and trade-deadline pickup Rich Hill through the division series before handing a start to the 20-year-old Urias in the NLCS.

Maeda will be back alongside Kershaw after posting a 3.48 ERA in 175.2 innings in his first big league season. 

The 36-year-old Hill battled blister issues after coming over from the Oakland A’s in early August, but he put up a 1.83 ERA in six regular-season starts with L.A. He’s a free agent, and while the Dodgers will surely kick the tires, it’s not normally in president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s DNA to give multi-year contracts to players rounding the bend on 40.

Right-hander Brandon McCarthy is signed through 2018 but is coming off an injury-plagued, up-and-down season. South Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is an even bigger question mark after missing all of 2015 and nearly all of 2016 with shoulder and elbow problems. 

Lefty Scott Kazmir is around after declining to opt out of his contract, though the Dodgers may look to trade him, per Sherman. Alex Wood pitched out of the bullpen in the postseason but is an option to rejoin the rotation if healthy.

That’s a lot of ifs, maybes and what-have-yous. Plus, Los Angeles could lose closer Kenley Jansen to free agency, weakening a bullpen that led MLB with a 3.35 ERA and covered for the rotation’s lapses.

Not a good look for the squad with baseball’s highest payroll and a 28-year championship drought.

Getting Sale would immediately and immeasurably boost the Dodgers’ stock. Along with Kershaw and Maeda, he’d form a rock-solid top three augmented by either Urias or DeLeon and whomever manages to come back and stay healthy from the above-mentioned group.

The Dodgers won’t be Sale’s only suitor. Expect every club with pitching needs and prospects to burn to come sniffing. Cafardo astutely name-dropped the Boston Red Sox in particular:

In the thinking-big department, [Boston president of baseball operations Dave] Dombrowski may have enough starting pitching, but how could he resist at least exploring a deal for White Sox ace Chris Sale? Dombrowski inquired about the lefthander at the trade deadline but the price was high. That price will be high again, but adding Sale would give the Red Sox a starting rotation that includes David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez (unless he was in the deal),Steven Wright, and Clay Buchholz/Drew Pomeranz.

The Red Sox have the pieces to outbid Los Angeles. But while they may want Sale—who doesn’t?—they don’t need him like the Dodgers.

The hot stove is about to start crackling. Rumors will fly like sparks in a stiff wind. This isn’t the last time you’ll read about Sale and the Dodgers.

Some speculation just makes too much sense.

All statistics courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Buster Posey didn’t need to pad his resume.

At age 29, the San Francisco Giants catcher has already won a Rookie of the Year trophy, a batting title, three Silver Sluggers, a National League MVP and three championship rings.

For even the all-time greats, that’s a career and change.

On Tuesday, however, Posey gilded the lily, winning his first Gold Glove award, per MLB.com’s Doug Miller.

Posey beat out St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who had won the prize for the past eight seasons and become the Baby Gerald to Posey’s Maggie Simpson. 

That’s not to suggest Molina was undeserving. During his impressive Gold Glove streak from 2008 to 2015, he was the best defensive catcher in baseball, per FanGraphs. 

Posey, however, was a better backstop than Molina between 2015 and 2016 by FanGraphs’ metric, and was a better pitch framer in 2014, 2015 and 2016, per StatCorner. 

In 2016, StatCorner had him as the best pitch framer in baseball. He also gunned down a stout 37 percent of would-be base stealers. 

“Defense is something that I’ve always taken pride in,” Posey said, per Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. “It was a bigger focal point as a kid with my coaches and my dad, so as a kid, I paid attention to the Gold Glove award as much as any. So it’s pretty cool to be recognized in this way with this honor.”

On Oct. 27, Baggarly threw his weight behind Posey with a hefty Molina caveat:

The point, again, isn’t to take away from Molina. But Posey has been hovering around the edges of a Gold Glove for a few seasons at least. It was the last feather missing from his cap.

The fact he won it along with fellow Giants Brandon Crawford (shortstop) and Joe Panik (second base) ratchets up the Bay Area’s pride.

“I think it was the one award that he hadn’t won yet,” Crawford said of Posey, per Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. 

Posey has been such an indelible part of the MLB landscape since he burst on the scene in 2010; it feels as though he’s been with us forever.

More than anything, the cherub-faced Florida State alum has packed a career’s worth of highs (and lows) into a scant seven seasons.

He won NL ROY and a title in 2010, busting the Giants’ 56-year championship drought and bringing the first Commissioner’s Trophy home to San Francisco.

In 2011, his ankle exploded in an ugly home plate collision with the Marlins‘ Scott Cousins, and the Giants missed the playoffs.

In 2012, he won the batting crown with a .336 average and hoisted a second trophy.

Then, in 2014, he reeled in a third ring and top-10 MVP finish.

That’s a lifetime of peaks, valleys and confetti. Or, to put it another way: Every World Series in San Francisco history has been won with Buster Posey on the roster.

Granted, in 2016 Posey posted a good-not-great .288/.362/.434 slash line with 14 home runs as the Giants were bounced in the division series. It’s possible he’ll need to get out from the squat before long to save his legs and prolong his productivity. 

First base is the most logical landing spot, which could mean shifting Brandon Belt to the outfield and various other machinations.

The Giants will consider it all at some point. Posey is a cornerstone at AT&T Park, inked at least through 2021 and embedded into the team’s recent even-year lore. 

For now, we pause to consider the legacy of a ludicrously decorated player who’s still on the right side of 30 and plays a premium position perennially lacking in star wattage.

In April, Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles parsed Posey’s Hall of Fame candidacy and concluded, correctly, that he’s not quite there.

This Gold Glove doesn’t earn him a bust in Cooperstown. It pads his resume, however. That much we know.

On a night when America made a consequential, divisive decision, let’s focus on one we can all get behind: Buster Posey is an awesome catcher.

Now, he has the hardware to prove it.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers “are exploring” potential trade options for Howie Kendrick as they look to build on their National League Championship Series appearance, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Continue for updates.

Phillies and Angels Possible Landing Spots

Tuesday, Nov. 8

Rosenthal listed the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Angels as teams who could be interested in Kendrick. He said Philadelphia is “looking for short-term upgrades,” while Kendrick started his MLB career with the Angels.

Rosenthal pointed out Phillies general manager Matt Klentak was the assistant general manager for the Angels for part of Kendrick’s time with the team. Kendrick played for the Angels from 2006 to 2014.

What’s more, Rosenthal said the Angels are looking for a second baseman heading into the 2017 season.

That would likely suit Kendrick well, considering Rosenthal’s major league sources said he “grew frustrated with his role last season.” While his 487 at-bats ranked fifth on the team, he played left field, second base, first base and third base at times after playing second most of his career.

He also started just three of the Dodgers‘ 11 playoff games, as manager Dave Roberts used Andrew Toles in left against right-handed pitchers.

Despite the apparent frustration, Kendrick’s fielding at second base often dictated his moving around given his struggles in the last two seasons with the Dodgers. According to FanGraphs, he was responsible for minus-12 total defensive runs saved above average at second in 2015 (989 innings) and minus-four in 2016 (210.1 innings).

He will make $10 million in 2017 in the final season of a two-year contract with the Dodgers, per Rosenthal. A trade would mean the Dodgers received something in return before the 33-year-old Kendrick potentially heads elsewhere on the open market following the upcoming campaign.

Kendrick was a 2011 All-Star with the Angels when he hit a career-best 18 home runs, but he was not that offensive force for the Dodgers in 2016. He slashed .255/.326/.366 with eight home runs and 40 RBI and couldn’t replicate some of his past numbers:

While the decline is likely worrisome for teams targeting Kendrick, he is versatile enough to play multiple positions if needed and brings postseason experience and veteran leadership to the table with 30 playoff games in his career.

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