Kuzul

If he’s so inclined, Zack Greinke can end his six-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers after only three seasons at the end of 2015. He just better make sure he has a really good season first.

Seven starts in, it wouldn’t be fair to call his 2015 season “really good.” It’s been more like “superb.”

Greinke‘s seventh start went down Monday night against the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium, and it ended with him contributing to a dramatic 5-3 Dodgers victory with seven innings of one-run ball. He was denied his sixth straight win when the Dodgers bullpen turned a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 deficit in the ninth inning, but he at least secured his 15th straight non-defeat dating back to last season.

More relevant to this discussion, though, is how Greinke maintained his status as arguably the National League‘s top pitcher in the early going.

Greinke entered Monday’s start with a 1.54 ERA, which was already the best in the Senior Circuit. He exited with a 1.52 ERA, which is still the best in the Senior Circuit. He also ranks fourth in innings with 47.1 and first in RA9-WAR—that being FanGraphs‘ runs allowed-based version of Wins Above Replacement—at 2.1.

Granted, Greinke‘s 2015 season is far from over. Health permitting, he likely has another 25 or so starts still to make. Much could change in these 25 or so starts.

So far, however, Greinke is pitching like a guy who wants to find a massive payday in the coming winter.

As Eric Stephen of True Blue LA reported in February, Greinke isn’t going to make a decision on the opt-out clause in his six-year, $147 million contract until the end of the year. But there is no player in baseball more practical than him, and his willingness to follow the money is well known. If he determines that opting out at the end of the year is in his best interest, he’ll do it.

In his own words, according to Stephen: “I’m sure [the Dodgers are] open to me taking a cheap deal also. It’s just a matter of seeing what is working.”

Given that opting out would mean turning down $77 million in guaranteed money through the 2018 season, Greinke would have to be sure of a bigger payday awaiting on the free-agent market. This, of course, is another way of saying he better keep pitching like he’s been pitching.

Thing is, that might actually be doable.

There are reasons to be skeptical of Greinke‘s NL-leading 1.52 ERA. It’s a flimsy stat to begin with, and not all of his peripheral numbers pass the smell test.

Most notably, Greinke isn’t striking many guys out. He’s only striking out 7.4 batters per nine innings, quite the drop from the 9.2 K/9 rate he had last year.

On a related note, Greinke‘s velocity is down. At the start of play on Monday, FanGraphs had his average fastball clocked at 90.5 miles per hour, well below last year’s average of 91.9. And given that he’s 31 years old, that missing velocity may not be coming back.

As such, it’s easy to point to Greinke‘s .220 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as not only the key reason for his success, but also the source of his inevitable downfall. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports noted, conventional wisdom suggests that number is doomed to go up:

If Greinke does indeed start experiencing worse luck on batted balls, his ERA will pay the price. And if his ERA pays the price, he may not be able to seek his price in free agency.

But while it’s easy to assume that Greinke will start getting hurt in the BABIP department, what this article presupposes is: Maybe he won’t?

Yes, pitchers don’t have a ton of control over what happens when the ball leaves the bat. But they can have some. The ability to manage contact is a skill that’s getting more attention these days, in part because we finally have figures that properly highlight how good pitchers are at it.

For example, FanGraphs has Soft%, or a pitcher’s percentage of soft-hit balls. Heading into Monday’s action, here’s what the top of the MLB leaderboard looked like:

At the start of the day, there was Greinke among the five best soft-contact merchants in the game. The average batted ball velocity data at Baseball Savant further supported this, as Greinke‘s average of 85.3 miles per hour off the bat was the fifth-lowest among qualified starters.

This would appear to be new territory for Greinke. His career Soft% is only 16.8, and his previous career best was only 22.0 back in 2011. If he stays on his current pace, he’ll shatter that.

Given that and the whole small sample size thing, maybe you feel like screaming the F word (that’s “fluke” in this case). But in reality, this actually looks like a case of Greinke getting smarter by…well, by dumbing things down.

In his first two seasons with the Dodgers, Greinke‘s repertoire of pitches was as varied as any in the game. Per Brooks Baseball, he threw five different pitches at least 10 percent of the time. 

But this year? Greinke entered Monday throwing only three pitches at least 10 percent of the time: his four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. Split things up into batter handedness splits, and you can see where this difference is coming from:

Though Greinke has technically gone from being a five-pitch pitcher to a three-pitch pitcher, realistically he’s more like a two-pitch pitcher. Right-handed batters are getting fastballs and sliders, and left-handed batters are getting fastballs and changeups.

Why go so simple? Seemingly because he has a similarly simple approach in mind for how he wants to execute these pitches.

In 2013 and 2014, Greinke‘s fastball/slider pattern against right-handed batters looked like this:

What you see there is a lot of pitches away. That pales in comparison, however, to what Greinke is doing with his fastball/slider pattern against right-handed batters in 2015:

Greinke was going away from right-handed batters with his fastballs and sliders in 2013 and 2014. Now he’s going way away, to a point where he’s not even faking an effort to keep them honest with pitches inside.

Not surprisingly, he’s doing pretty much the same thing with his fastball/changeup combination against lefties. Here’s 2013-2014:

And here’s 2015: 

Slightly different images, but the same story. What was already an away-heavy approach has become even more away-heavy. 

Now, it’s possible that Greinke isn’t doing this intentionally. Maybe he wants to be more around the zone but just hasn’t been able to execute. Maybe it’s early-season rust or something.

But I doubt it. Greinke is very rarely not in command. And given that his practical mind is also a learned mind, this would appear to be a case of him chasing soft contact by going where the numbers say to go.

Generally speaking, right-handed batters and left-handed batters have a harder time hitting outside pitches for power than they do hitting inside pitches for power. And while batted ball velocity doesn’t say that outside pitches are necessarily harder to hit with authority, the raw power numbers from Baseball Savant confirm that power production has been harder to come by on outside pitches than on inside pitches in 2015:

So you know all the soft contact Greinke is getting? That doesn’t look like such a fluke after all. He’s making an effort to stay as away from hitters as much as possible, and the numbers say that’s where a pitcher should be going if he wants to avoid getting hurt.

So far, this approach has translated in a super-low BABIP and, in turn, a super-low ERA. And while Greinke‘s ERA more than likely isn’t going to stay below 2.00 all season, it’s a good bet that he’ll be able to exit 2015 with his third straight sub-3.00 ERA.

And if he does, exercising that opt-out clause will be a no-brainer.

Yes, the winter’s free-agent market is going to be saturated with talented starting pitching. But if Greinke does opt out, there’s no question he’d be right there next to David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann among the best of the best. And if James Shields can get $75 million coming off a 3.21 ERA in his age-32 season, Greinke could surely do better coming off a 2.00-ish ERA in his age-31 season.

But this is a matter for later, of course. Greinke will cross that bridge when he gets to it. For now, he’ll probably just keep staying away.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks finished with the worst record in baseball at 64-98. There were many glaring weaknesses with the team, but it was the 8-22 start that likely buried the D-backs’ playoff hopes before the month of May even began.

This season, Arizona looks much different. The players are healthy, there are fresh faces and new management. Entering Saturday, the D-backs are on a season-high three-game winning streak as their record sits at 13-14.

But it’s not just their record that has improved so far in 2015.

Here are three ways in which the Diamondbacks have already improved this season.

Begin Slideshow

The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the first month of their 2015 campaign right where they left off last regular season—atop the National League West standings.

It’s been somewhat of an unexpected first few weeks for the Boys in Blue, who were projected to experience a drop-off in power when they traded away Matt Kemp and let Hanley Ramirez walk in free agency.

Instead, Los Angeles leads the NL in home runs and has also received surprising production out of its new-look bullpen—a point of weakness last year.

Here are the three biggest takeaways from the first month of the Dodgers’ season.

Joc Pederson is the Real Deal

When the Dodgers traded away Matt Kemp last winter, it became clear that the organization was fully committed to rookie Joc Pederson becoming a major contributor right away.

So far, that gamble has paid off.

Pederson has already smacked seven home runs through Monday—six more than Kemp—and appears to have solidified himself as the team’s center fielder of the present and future.

Manager Don Mattingly recently moved the 23-year-old to the lead-off spot in the batting order, and the switch produced immediate results. Pederson became the first Dodgers rookie to hit a home run in four straight games (with an at-bat) since Bill Sudakis in 1969, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. One of the home runs was a grand slam, the first for the Dodgers in 286 games, according to Eric Stephen of True Blue LA.

His 1.043 OPS ranks seventh in the MLB—ahead of names like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton.

“Donnie told me from day one that it’s about putting together quality at-bats,” Pederson said, per Joe Resnick of the Associated Press. “They weren’t worried about the results. They saw what I could do. I still need to continue to put together quality at-bats. We’re only a month into the season. So it’s not how you start, but how you finish.”

Pederson isn’t just getting it done with that bat, either. He has looked comfortable patrolling center field all season, making seamless reads and several diving catches without an error to date.

Bullpen Has Been Better Than Expected

The Dodgers’ Achilles heel from a season ago has quickly become one of their strongest assets so far in 2015.

That’s right. Entering Tuesday night’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles relievers have combined for a 1.90 ERA—fourth-best in the majors.

The Dodgers’ bullpen recently saw its 26-inning scoreless streak snapped earlier this week. But a small blemish hasn’t taken away from the quality relief that this collection of unheralded pitchers has provided in the early going.

There are several new faces waiting for their name to be called this season, many with little MLB experience.

Right-handers Yimi Garcia (0.66 ERA) and Pedro Baez (2.45 ERA) have emerged as trustworthy options despite having combined for just 25 games of major league experience prior to this season.

Paco Rodriguez, a second-round draft pick in 2012, and rookie Adam Liberatore, acquired from Tampa Bay in the offseason, are southpaws who have also turned in nearly spotless relief.

These low-cost success stories represent a refreshing change from the highly paid failures of last season—namely Brian Wilson and Chris Perez.

New President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has encouraged Mattingly to base pitching changes off matchups rather than innings, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN.com. Instead of naming a seventh-inning guy or an eighth-inning guy, the Dodgers simply react to the situations presented in the late innings.

“Everybody (in the bullpen) is ready to go from the fifth inning on,” said veteran reliever J.P. Howell, a lefty specialist with a 1.23 ERA, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles Daily News. “No superstar stuff. That’s how I like it.”

This fluid strategy may become slightly more rigid when closer Kenley Jansen returns from a foot injury and picks up sole ninth-inning responsibilities.

Alex Guerrero Needs to Play Everyday

The secret is officially out on Alex Guerrero, as the Dodgers’ bench extraordinaire earned National League Rookie of the Month honors for April.

He batted .423 with a 1.077 slugging percentage and five home runs. But the most notable number was his 26 at-bats. It’s a rather small amount of action for a player who has offered elite production.

The Dodgers signed the Cuban defector to a four-year, $28 million contract following the 2013 season. He spent most of last season in the minor leagues, limited to fewer than 350 total at-bats because of an infamous ear-biting incident. He finished the season batting .329 with 15 home runs at Triple-A.

Guerrero’s barrier to entry remains Juan Uribe, the Dodgers’ Opening Day third baseman. The veteran is in the final year of his contract with the Dodgers, and the team values his defense and leadership in the clubhouse. Uribe is currently slashing .279/.318/.361 with one home run.

Additionally, Los Angeles recently won the bidding war for fellow Cuban defector Hector Olivera, signing him to a six-year, $62.5 million contract, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Olivera can play third base and second base—Howie Kendrick’s position for at least this season.

The Dodgers have gotten creative in order to insert Guerrero’s bat into the lineup, playing him in left field now that Carl Crawford will be sidelined for the foreseeable future with a tear in his oblique. But this solution isn’t suited for the long term, and Guerrero’s trade value is probably as high as it will be all season—he even admitted so.

“Now it changes for me,” Guerrero said through an interpreter, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “Because pitchers are going to adjust the way they’ve been pitching me. They didn’t know me before.”

This has led some to believe that the Dodgers might try trading Guerrero, perhaps for starting rotation depth. Brandon McCarthy will miss the rest of 2015 with a torn ulnar collateral ligament, and Hyun-jin Ryu has yet to take the mound this season because of shoulder inflammation.

However, the hitch in a potential trade is a clause in Guerrero’s contract stipulating that he can become a free agent at the end of any season in which he is dealt. Guerrero is due $4 million this season and $5 million in each of the next two seasons.

All stats courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

Follow @NickOstiller

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The first month of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ season has shown a little bit of everything. 

The 2015 D-backs have gotten off to a much better start than the 2014 team, which started the season 5-18 through 23 games. This Arizona team sits at 10-12 entering their 23rd game this season.

There are areas in which the Snakes have improved from 2014, but there are also some recurring themes that could possibly limit the possibility of a postseason run.

Here are the three biggest takeaways from the first month of the D-backs’ season.

Begin Slideshow

The 2015 season is in full swing, and the month of April has been a tumultuous on for the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have a record of 9-13 and are in last place in the NL West. They trail the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by 4.5 games.

Much has been made of the Giants losing Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse in the free-agent market. In addition, general manager Brian Sabean was unsuccessful in landing a big-name player to bolster the pitching staff or add power to the offense.

The Giants struck out on Jon Lester and James Shields, two of their primary pitching targets this winter. In addition, as players like Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Michael Cuddyer and Hanley Ramirez all switched teams, the Giants went for a more cost-effective route.

Sabean ultimately brought in Nori Aoki and Casey McGehee to fill the spots vacated by the departures of Sandoval and Morse. In addition, non-roster invitee Justin Maxwell made the team.

The Giants also brought Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong back into the fold. Both were free agents but elected to return to San Francisco.

These five players encompass the Giants’ offseason acquisitions currently playing on the 25-man roster. We will assess how each of them has done in April and provide them with a one-month grade.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

Contract data courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Begin Slideshow

Through the first three weeks, the Los Angeles Dodgers have not disappointed. They have the third-best record in the National League, and their 13-8 mark is good for a two-game lead over the Colorado Rockies in the division. However, they have not quite done it how we expected.

Injuries have forced a series of unpredictable lineups, and manager Don Mattingly has been forced to get creative. General manager Farhan Zaidi has built a roster that enables the team to adjust, and the adversity the Dodgers have faced has given us a bit of a window into the problem-solving this team will use.

*Stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford announced Tuesday that he has a torn oblique and doesn’t currently have a timetable for his return to the field.

Continue for updates.

Crawford Says He Has Torn Oblique

Tuesday, April 28

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times provided the details on Crawford’s rather severe injury situation, adding that a timetable hasn’t been determined yet:

The Los Angeles Times‘ Bill Shaikin alluded to Crawford’s injury-plagued past along with an estimate as to when fans can expect the four-time All-Star to return:  

The Dodgers confirmed that utility player Kike Hernandez will take his spot on the roster. 

Crawford has either struggled on the field or had a tough time staying healthy ever since leaving the Tampa Bay Rays following the 2010 campaign. This season has seen the Dodgers outfield bitten by the injury bug, with Crawford now joining Yasiel Puig on the disabled list.

At least L.A. has depth to turn to in its rotation. Veteran Andre Ethier is still in the fold, as are Scott Van Slyke and Alex Guerrero, who will likely vie for reps in left field.

Van Slyke has had a hit in the past six games in which he’s appeared entering Tuesday’s action, but Guerrero will get the start against the San Francisco Giants, per Shaikin.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s a good thing the Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best one-two pitching punch in Major League Baseball with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke atop their staff. They’re going to need it.

In the wake of the lingering-since-spring-training left-shoulder injury to southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, expected to be the club’s third starter, and the more recent, more severe season-ending elbow tear suffered Saturday night by No. 4 starter Brandon McCarthy, the contending Dodgers are going to have to address their rapidly eroding rotation.

And probably sooner than later, as Bill Plunkett of the Los Angeles Times puts it:

McCarthy, who signed a lucrative contract with L.A. as a free agent this past offseason, left his outing over the weekend in the sixth inning of a game the Dodgers eventually won over the San Diego Padres.

Immediately after throwing a pitch that Justin Upton hit for a home run, the tall righty began to shake his right arm and then called the club’s coaching staff and trainers out to the mound. After a brief discussion, McCarthy came out.

“I expected [McCarthy] to go on the DL [Monday], but we thought more along the lines of tendinitis than something like [a torn ulnar collateral ligament],” Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Monday in his interview with reporters. “I felt like that’s what I was going to hear, then we would have to fill [in for McCarthy] for a little bit of time and get back to it. But obviously, the news was not good.”

The expectation is that McCarthy will need to undergo Tommy John surgery, per Earl Bloom of MLB.com, which could keep him out through the first half of 2016.

Meanwhile, the NL West-leading Dodgers (12-7) are merely very early in the first half of 2015, and already a team that has won the division each of the past two years and has World Series hopes needs to be searching for pitching depth either internally or possibly via trade between now and July 31.

Oh, and the Dodgers also have to keep their fingers crossed that Kershaw and Greinke can sustain the status quo as two of the sport’s very best and most durable.

After those two, the only other pitcher projected to be a part of the rotation at the outset of the season is Brett Anderson, who might well be the most injury-prone starting pitcher in baseball in recent years.

Over the previous three seasons, the 27-year-old left-hander has made just 19 starts and thrown all of 123 innings—combined. Anderson more or less is a disabled-list stint waiting to happen, but now the Dodgers need him to be a somewhat stable third option behind the top two.

That is, at least until Ryu returns. The 28-year-old Korean lefty, who was both good and steady in his first two seasons, is making progress but very slowly as he comes back from a shoulder impingement. Ryu threw 20 pitches off a mound Sunday in his first action since being shut down in mid-March, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

As for McCarthy, it’s not like he has been the pillar of health, which is why it was surprising to many when the Dodgers inked him not only for $48 million but also for four years this winter.

The 31-year-old has pitched in parts of 10 seasons in the majors, and only last year did McCarthy finally make it past 25 starts and over 175 innings in a single one. He has been on the DL a Ferris Bueller-like nine times.

Still, the Dodgers, in all likelihood, could have been anticipating some sort of ailment or injury for McCarthy—just not one of the season-ending variety. And certainly not after just four starts.

That leaves Mattingly and, especially, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to scramble to find a way to make up for about, oh, 28 turns and 180 or so innings. And that’s just for McCarthy.

A peek at L.A.’s 40-man roster shows the following names as potential fill-ins, at least in the short term:

• Scott Baker, a 33-year-old veteran who sports a 4.24 career ERA and who last made even 10 starts in 2011
• Mike Bolsinger, who already has made one start for the Dodgers in 2015 but otherwise is 27 years old and in his third season at Triple-A
• Zach Lee, 23, the club’s first-round pick in 2010 who is off to a strong start at Oklahoma City (1.00 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) but who has yet to debut and is considered a mid-rotation arm at best
• Joe Wieland, a 25-year-old the Dodgers acquired along with Yasmani Grandal from the Padres in the Matt Kemp deal who has 39 career innings in the majors

There’s also Brandon Beachy, the once-promising Atlanta Braves right-hander who is trying to return from a second Tommy John surgery by this summer.

In other words: not a whole heck of a lot. Until Friedman can come up with a more stable solution, expect the above four to be on call, possibly shuttling back and forth between L.A. and OKC.

Longer term, there’s at least a possibility, it would seem, that top prospect/phenom Julio Urias could be called upon at some point.

But even if the precocious left-hander continues tearing up Double-A at age 18 (20.2 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 26:3 K:BB), that likely wouldn’t happen until after the All-Star break. And even then, maybe only if things don’t get better for Ryu or go south once again for Anderson. Baseball America managing editor JJ Cooper offered this about Urias:

That leaves external options via trade. There will be—scratch that, there already is, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times—chatter and speculation about the usual suspects, like Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds, Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals or Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies. And any of those three, among others, are possible targets down the line.

But the Friedman-led front office has indicated in the past that there’s no interest in trading one of the franchise’s top two building-block prospects, shortstop Corey Seager or Urias, when both are massive talents on the verge of helping the big league club at minimal cost. Such a big-name pitcher is going to require a big-time return. Says USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale:

Could desperation in the form of a setback with Ryu or another injury to Anderson—or worse, Kershaw or Greinke—change that? Sure, but that remains to be seen.

Perhaps rather than honing in on another star starter, the Dodgers would be better served targeting one or two capable mid-rotation arms. Someone like Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse, Oakland Athletics lefty Scott Kazmir or Reds righty Mike Leake, to name a few.

None of those three are sexy superstars the Dodgers have come to be associated with, but they’re all proven pitchers who would be major improvements over what L.A. currently is calling the back end of its rotation. What’s more, all three are free agents after the season, which would make them much easier gets, and that’s up Friedman’s alley.

Besides, with a one-two like Kershaw and Greinke, and with Ryu eventually as the No. 3, the Dodgers don’t need another star-caliber starter. They do, however, need innings.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers made headlines this offseason with a flurry of personnel moves. Three weeks into the 2015 season, these recent additions have provided varying contributions.

Although the sample size is still relatively small, we’ve decided to hand out an April report card for the newest Boys in Blue.

This evaluation follows the order in which Los Angeles acquired these players during the winter.

All stats courtesy of ESPN.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a relatively busy offseason entering 2015. Besides cleaning house in several areas of management, they made a number of acquisitions via signings and trades that have had an impact thus far.

The D-backs sit at 8-8 entering Saturday and have showed signs of improvement from their abysmal 2014 campaign. Some of the new players have assisted in that regard.

Here are the early grades for Arizona’s offseason acquisitions.

Begin Slideshow