Kuzul

Major League Baseball already has a $300 million contract. Its first $400 million contract could come soon.

Call it a hunch based on where Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are in their careers.

The Baltimore Orioles’ third baseman and the Washington Nationals’ right fielder have much in common. Both were elite prospects before they hit the ground running in the majors in 2012. Both have been among the best at their respective positions since then. Both are just 24 years old. And both are slated to hit free agency after the 2018 season.

Thus, the occasional buzz about one of them being baseball’s first $400 million man. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the latest to float that figure over Harper’s head. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (h/t ESPN.com’s Kyle Brasseur) hung the figure over Machado’s head last summer.

The ideal scenario is for both of them to get $400 million, as Nathaniel Grow of FanGraphs highlighted in 2015 how players weren’t getting their fair share of baseball’s revenue pie. Two $400 million contracts would go a longer way toward fixing that than just one.

But we must be practical. It’s likely that only one of them will break the $400 million barrier. Assuming that’s a matter of who’s more deserving, we must pit Machado and Harper against each other in relevant categories.

Upside

Upside, eh? Well, only one of the players in this discussion has authored one of baseball’s all-time greatest seasons.

Remember Harper’s 2015 season? Yup, that’s the one.

He led MLB in on-base percentage (.460) and slugging percentage (.649) and co-led the National League with 42 home runs. By OPS+, his offensive performance was the best since Barry Bonds in 2004. Baseball-Reference.com put Harper’s wins above replacement at 9.9—a mark that’s been reached only 61 other times among hitters.

Harper’s defining characteristics in 2015 were his advanced approach and his booming power. The former has roots in the 13.5 walk percentage he posted in the minors. The latter had scouts drooling even before he was the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft. Baseball America rated Harper’s power as a true 80-grade tool.

As such, Harper’s 2015 was less of a random flare-up and more of an inevitability. That was the player he was supposed to be—and, thus, could be again.

For his part, Machado is no slouch. He was worth 6.7 WAR in 2013 and found that same neighborhood in 2015 (7.1) and 2016 (6.7). The first time he did it, he was an otherworldly defender with a decent bat. He’s enjoyed the best of both worlds since 2015, averaging a 130 OPS+ and 36 homers while playing defense that, while short of otherworldly, is still great. Either way, we’re talking superstar-level stuff.

However, whether Machado can get any better is a good question.

Baseball America figured he would be only a 20-homers-per-year guy, so he’s already way ahead of those early power projections. His power did tick upward after first exploding in 2015, but not to a degree that suggests he has a bunch more in the tank.

The jury’s also out on whether Machado can amplify his hitting talent with increased patience. He took a big step forward in that department in 2015, lowering his swing and chase rates and drawing more walks. But that didn’t last, as his improvements regressed in 2016.

This is not to say Machado’s game can’t evolve. It’s just to say he seems to be what he is: a superstar for sure, but one without Harper’s upside.

Advantage: Harper

Consistency

Upside is well and good, but what would a team with a $400 million contract offer in hand rather have: a guy who can be great, or a guy who it can count on being great?

Given the size of the bet being made, probably the latter, right?

So let’s confront the elephant that was stampeding through the room marked “Upside.”

Harper owns the best individual season of these two, but Machado is having the better career. He’s been worth 3.2 more WAR than Harper despite playing in 49 fewer games. He’s also topped six WAR thrice to Harper’s once.

There haven’t been wild fluctuations in Machado’s performance like there have been in Harper’s. If we line up their yearly OPS+ numbers, for example, we see a squiggly line and a relatively straight one:

On the whole, Harper’s career 137 OPS+ trumps Machado’s 117 OPS+. But based on the early portion of his career, how consistently Harper’s going to live up to his career mark is anyone’s guess. There’s nothing in Machado’s track record, meanwhile, that suggests similar peaks and valleys are imminent.

On the other side of the ball, Machado’s defense peaked in 2013, when he put up a 31.2 ultimate zone rating and 35 defensive runs saved. But on either side of that are well-above-average performances. In total, he’s been an elite defender through the lens of either UZR or DRS.

Harper’s defensive performance is tougher to pin down due to how much he’s moved around the outfield. He’s mostly been good, compiling a 17.4 ultimate zone rating and 24 defensive runs saved. But rather than maintaining a baseline of above-average defense like Machado has, Harper has had years when his defense has been rated negatively by UZR or DRS.

Bottom line: Based on their performances to this point, only one of these guys is a safe bet to be a great player in any given year.

Advantage: Machado

Durability

And now for the fundamental reason why Harper’s performances have fluctuated so wildly: The dude can’t stay healthy.

We got an inkling of that in 2013 and 2014, when Harper was limited to 218 games due to major injuries to his knee and thumb that were accompanied by a handful of nagging injuries.

The bright side at the time seemed to be that he could avoid further trouble by looking after himself on the field, which he vowed to do ahead of 2015.

“It’s more impact stuff. Hitting the wall, blowing the bursa. Sliding into third base on a triple and tearing my tendon,” he said of his injury troubles that spring, via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. “So, this year, I’ll just play a little smarter.”

This paid off, as Harper played in 153 games in 2015. Nonetheless, it turned out his problems weren’t solved for good. Although he played in 147 games in 2016, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated reported Harper was plagued by a shoulder issue that hindered him at the plate and in the field.

The black marks on Machado’s record are the knee issues he ran into in 2013 and 2014. A ligament tear in his left knee ended his ’13 season early. A year later, an injury to the same ligament in his right knee ended his ’14 season early. But then he came back and played in all 162 games in 2015 and in 157 games in 2016. In all, he’s played in more games over the last two seasons than just one player.

This is a comparison between one guy who’s not past his injury troubles and one who is. Neither is Cal Ripken Jr., but one is more Cal Ripken-y than the other.

Looking forward, Machado is no more likely to be beat up by third base than Harper is by right field. The list of guys who played regularly at third base after 30 and the list of guys who played regularly in right field after 30 look awfully similar.

Advantage: Machado

Survey Says: Machado

There are other factors that could be weighed here. Marketability, for example. Blockbuster movies need lead actors who look good on posters. All other things being equal, baseball teams prefer to operate similarly.

But that may be a moot point in this case because all other things aren’t equal.

Harper has the talent to be worth a $400 million contract. And while he’s only put that talent on full display just once so far, that could obviously change in 2017 or 2018. He has the ability and the time to shift the nature of the conversation.

But if things stay the way they are now, Machado is the safer bet for a $400 million contract. Even if he never gets any better, he’s good enough now and should remain good enough from both a talent and durability perspective.

Again, here’s hoping both land $400 million contracts. But if only one of them can, right now it’s clear who that one should be.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers have spent the offseason getting the band back together, re-signing closer Kenley Jansen, left-hander Rich Hill and third baseman Justin Turner.

There’s nothing wrong with that. The trio were key contributors in 2016 and among the top free agents at their respective positions.

If the Dodgers are going to secure a fifth straight National League West crown, however, and win their first title since 1988, they need to keep shopping. Specifically, Los Angeles has holes to plug in the bullpen, the outfield and, most glaringly, at second base.

Let’s examine a few realistic trade and free-agent targets, with the operative word being “realistic.” Not all of these deals will happen, but they’re tied to credible rumors—or at least informed speculation—and a sense of the Dodgers’ needs and resources.

We’ll begin with a right-handed reliever formerly employed by the Dodgers’ hated rivals and end with a power-hitting second baseman who simply makes too much sense to ignore.

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The deadline for voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America to submit their 2017 Hall of Fame ballots was Dec. 31. In the interest of keeping us all in suspense, however, the results won’t be announced until Jan. 18.

In the meantime, here’s a final look at this year’s candidates, their HOF cases and the chances they’ll punch a ticket to Cooperstown.

We have some data to go on. First, there are past vote totals for players who have been on the ballot before. Second, and even more revealingly, there’s the count of public ballots compiled by the indefatigable Ryan Thibodaux.

This year’s class is a fascinating one, populated by a number of borderline cases sure to spark debate, two titans of the steroid era who are gaining momentum and one worthy but long-spurned leadoff man on the verge of breaking through.

Note that we’re only discussing players who have a statistical shot at reaching the 75 percent threshold needed for induction based on the public count. Here’s a list of some notable names who’ve been eliminated for this year, though all appear likely to get the 5 percent necessary to stay on the ballot with the exception of Lee Smith, who is in his final year of eligibility:

• Jeff Kent, INF

• Fred McGriff, 1B

• Jorge Posada, C

• Manny Ramirez, OF

• Gary Sheffield, OF

• Lee Smith, RHP

• Sammy Sosa, OF

• Billy Wagner, LHP

• Larry Walker, OF

Feel free to cast your votes in the comments and proceed when ready.

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No player enters free agency hoping to sign in January. No team wants to let half the winter go by with significant needs unfilled.

But here we are in the new year. Free agents remain unsigned. Deals that had to be made remain undone.

And Jose Bautista wonders where it all went wrong. Or maybe he doesn’t.

If Edwin Encarnacion waited forever before landing with the Cleveland Indians on a three-year, $60 million deal, Bautista has waited forever and two weeks to find his next employer. The Minnesota Twins have waited forever to get a Brian Dozier trade done. The New York Mets still have too many outfielders, and the Atlanta Braves still haven’t improved behind the plate.

Oh, and after trading Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in two much-praised deals, the Chicago White Sox have gone nearly a month without more rebuilding.

There’s plenty still to do as we wait for Hall of Fame voting results and the start of spring training.

Reporting day is just six weeks away. Now these guys just need to know where to report.

We’re here to help, with Bleacher Report’s predictions for where the top remaining winter targets will land.

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With 2017 officially here and spring training just around the corner, the Boston Red Sox have the luxury of already having checked the big boxes on their offseason to-do list.

They didn’t need much to begin with but made a splash anyway by adding Chris Sale, Mitch Moreland and Tyler Thornburg and jettisoning Clay Buchholz. A Red Sox team that won the AL East in 2016 is now projected by FanGraphs to be the American League‘s best in 2017.

“If we started spring training right now, we would be content where we are,” Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said after Buchholz was traded, via Tim Britton of the Providence Journal.

However, we should stop short of seeing the 2017 Red Sox as a finished product. They do have lingering questions to answer, so let’s look at five free-agent and trade targets who could answer them.

1. Trevor Plouffe

As of now, the Red Sox have Pablo Sandoval penciled in at third base. It’s an upside play in light of his improved conditioning, but also a risky play in light of his disastrous 2015 and injury-shortened 2016.

Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors is right in thinking that third base insurance tops Boston’s remaining needs. The free-agent market has just the guy for it: Trevor Plouffe.

The Red Sox seem to already know this. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reported in late December that they have their eye on Plouffe, who spent his first seven seasons with the Minnesota Twins.

Beyond the fact he can likely be had on a cheap one-year contract, Plouffe’s appeal is his solid track record. The 30-year-old has been a league-average hitter in 723 major league games. He’s also played mostly passable defense at the hot corner.

If Sandoval were to prove up to the challenge he’s facing, Plouffe could also serve the Red Sox as a platoon bat. He’s a right-handed hitter with an .809 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also has experience at first base, left field, right field, second base and shortstop in addition to third base. 

Of course, Plouffe may prefer a more direct opportunity to be an everyday player on another team. That’s why the Red Sox need a Plan B, such as…

2. Adam Rosales

Plouffe isn’t the only right-handed utility type the Red Sox have on their radar. According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, Adam Rosales is on there as well.

As well he should be. Rosales isn’t so much a utility man as he is the utility man. He’s played at least 80 games at all four infield positions and also has some experience in left field and right field.

What Plouffe has that Rosales doesn’t is an offensive track record. Rosales is only a .227 career hitter with a .665 OPS, making him an easily below-average hitter.

However, Rosales is coming off a breakthrough in his age-33 season in 2016. He put up a career-high .814 OPS with 13 home runs for the San Diego Padres. He backed all this up with a 36.9 hard-hit percentage, a career best by plenty.

Rosales is certainly more appealing as a platoon player than as a possible everyday third baseman. But if he were to pick up where he left off on offense, he would have more than just a steady glove to offer while playing the hot corner.

The Red Sox need a Plan C in their search for a third base/utility type. He might be a long shot, but there’s one guy on the trade market who sticks out…

3. Hernan Perez

The Red Sox may have missed their shot at acquiring Hernan Perez. If they really wanted him, they may have found a way to include him in the trade that brought Thornburg from the Milwaukee Brewers for Travis Shaw.

But never say never.

Perez quietly found his stride in 2016. The 25-year-old played in 123 games and posted a .730 OPS with 13 homers and 34 stolen bases. He mostly played third base but also some right field, second base and first base.

Perez’s 2016 breakout didn’t end when the MLB season ended. He also starred (h/t Jim Goulart of Brewerfan.net, via Brew Crew Ball) in the Venezuelan winter league, winning the batting title and the Gold Glove at third base.

Perez’s rising star could make the Brewers want to hold on to him. But it also gives him trade value that could only go down in 2017. With Shaw locked in at third base and the other three positions on the infield also spoken for, Perez is only projected to be a utility guy.

The Red Sox would have to give up something (or somethings) of value to get Perez. But if they got him, they would get a younger, more controllable version of what Plouffe and Rosales could be for them—and with more upside, to boot.

Elsewhere, the Red Sox’s list of needs comes down to some low-risk starting pitching depth. That makes them a fit for…

4. Scott Feldman

The Red Sox traded Buchholz in part because it didn’t make sense to pay $13.5 million to a guy who wasn’t guaranteed a rotation spot.

With Buchholz gone, however, the Red Sox do have a slight depth issue in their rotation. Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price are an elite trio at the front. After them will be some combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz, each of whom has durability questions.

It wouldn’t hurt for the Red Sox to add another body to the mix. But their options are limited. They can only target guys who are in a position to accept an opportunity rather than a clearly defined role. And ideally, whoever they pick up could also be used in relief.

Hence, Scott Feldman.

The 33-year-old has been effective when healthy over the last four seasons, posting a 3.85 ERA. But he’s also no longer a lock to stay in anyone’s rotation anymore. He made just 18 starts in 2015 and found himself pitching mostly in relief in 2016.

This makes Feldman just the kind of guy the Red Sox are looking for: a veteran who could be signed for cheap as rotation insurance and could be stashed in the bullpen if no starting role materializes.

There’s one other free agent who matches this description…

5. Bud Norris

Bud Norris is a lot like Feldman. Once a semireliable starter, he’s fallen on hard times as he’s gotten older and is now in a position to try to latch on wherever he can.

Unlike Feldman, Norris hasn’t been effective when he’s been healthy in recent seasons. The 31-year-old has put up a 5.79 ERA since 2015, in which he’s started 30 games and appeared in relief in 43 others.

Norris still has some of the qualities that once made him a decent back-end starter, however. He’s maintaining his fastball velocity well, sitting in the 93-94 mph range. In a related story, he’s still a solid strikeout artist.

Norris is also a better bet than Feldman to stay healthy. Beyond being younger, Norris doesn’t have anything as serious as Feldman’s Tommy John surgery or microfracture knee surgery in his injury history.

These last two aren’t exactly sexy names, to be sure. But when a team’s to-do list is down to names like Feldman and Norris, that’s how you know that team is in good shape.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This winter, most Boston Red Sox-related headlines have focused on prospects on their way out of town. Most notably, the Red Sox shipped a gaggle of young talent to the Chicago White Sox in the Chris Sale trade, including five-tool Cuban Yoan Moncada.

There are still blue chips left on Boston’s table, however. One of them appears poised to win a starting job out of spring training and become MLB‘s latest rookie star.

I’m speaking, in case that headline and photo up there didn’t give the game away, about Andrew Benintendi.

In 34 games with the Red Sox last season, Benintendi flashed big-time potential, posting a .295/.359/.476 slash line with 11 doubles, a triple and two home runs.

He also provided one of the few bright spots in Boston’s division series sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians when he homered in Game 1:

The seventh overall pick in 2015, the 22-year-old looks like the odds-on favorite to claim the Sox’s starting left field gig. Since he kept his rookie status intact, he’s also among the favorites for American League Rookie of the Year honors.

Are we getting ahead of ourselves based on a small sample? Possibly. The list of highly rated prospects who raked on a short audition only to struggle over a full season is long. Somewhere right now, a big league pitcher is studying film of Benintendi’s swing and figuring out how to exploit it.

Benintendi, however, has the tools and temperament for sustained success.

In August, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America called him “one of the most polished hitters of the past few drafts.” That was before Benintendi’s successful big league debut but after he’d slashed .312/.392/.540 while rocketing through the minors.

He showed excellent plate discipline in his MLB stint, swinging at just 25.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone compared to the league average of 30.3 percent. He barreled up many of the pitches he did swing at, making hard contact 32.9 percent of the time. That compares favorably to fellow Red Sox outfielder and AL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts’ hard-contact rate of 33.4 percent.

Skeptics can point to Benintendi’s admittedly robust .367 batting average on balls in play, but patient hitters who make loud contact tend to have higher BABIPs. They might also note that the lefty swinger hit .179 against southpaws, though that came in a scant 33 MLB plate appearances.

Steamer projects a .282/.338/.439 slash line with 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 2017. Boston would take that, but Benintendi’s ceiling is much higher.

The mental aspect of the game is harder to quantify, but it’s equally essential for success. In lieu of stats, we’ll turn to Red Sox manager John Farrell, who had this to say to reporters during the division series:

[He’s] in the Major League postseason, and much like we talked about what makes a guy wired to perform in postseason, he’s calm. Even before the postseason started, he’s been a guy that’s never really panicked, even when he’s been in a disadvantaged count at the plate. It’s almost like you watch, his athletic movements are graceful. It’s almost like a window into what his mind is going through. It’s even, it’s under control, and he plays like that.

Benintendi made the bulk of his minor league starts in center field, but that position is taken by All-Star Jackie Bradley Jr. Rather, Benintendi will continue to learn the nuances of the Green Monster and join Bradley (age 26) and Betts (age 24) to form one of the most athletic outfield troikas in the game.

They can dance, too.

The Red Sox didn’t sign or trade for a top-tier slugger to replace retired franchise icon David Ortiz. Instead, they added ancillary pieces such as Mitch Moreland, gilded the rotation with Sale and are putting their faith in this young core to carry the offense.

They’ve got Big Papi’s stamp of approval.

“Those are the players you want on your ballclub,” Ortiz said to reporters of Benintendi, Bradley, Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (the new Killer B’s?). “Young, talented, and with that mentality, that’s on another level.”

Here’s an interesting thought experiment: Imagine if Benintendi dukes it out with Moncada for ROY honors. It’s no guarantee, but it’s far from far-fetched.

If it happens, Beantown fans will doubtless feel the sting of watching the stud who changed his Sox. At the same time, they’ll be able to take solace in the one who stuck around.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The calendar may have flipped to 2017, but we’re still a couple of cold months away from baseball. That’s actually good news (hear me out) for many MLB clubs with unfinished items on their to-do lists.

Like, say, the New York Yankees, who have holes to plug in the starting rotation, the bullpen and behind the dish.

Let’s examine a few realistic trade and free-agent targets, with the key word being “realistic.” Not all of these deals will go down, but they’re tied to credible rumors—or at least informed speculation—and a sense of the Yankees’ needs and resources.

They could hypothetically use Mark Trumbo’s pop, for example, but he’s not in the budgetary plans. Plus, where would they put him?

We’ll begin with a veteran backup catcher and work our way to a left-handed All-Star. Tap the (frozen) clay off your (proverbial) cleats and dig in when ready.

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There is roughly one month remaining before pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training, but there are still a number of impact options on the free-agent market.

Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli and Michael Saunders headline the remaining available position players; Jason Hammel and injury returnee Tyson Ross are the top starting pitchers still looking for a new home; and Neftali Feliz, Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Joe Blanton and Greg Holland represent impact relief options.

Where those remaining free agents wind up landing can still change the complexion of the offseason heading into spring training.

For now, though, we can get a pretty good gauge on how all 30 MLB teams’ offseason activity looks and whether they’ve come away a better team after a busy winter.

With that in mind, what follows is an offseason report card for each team.

The following factors went into grading each club’s offseason:

• Talent Lost vs. Talent Gained: The easiest place to start is to simply look at the cumulative effect of the players added this offseason compared to the players lost.

• Payroll Factors: For some teams, it’s not simply a matter of re-signing their top talent and filling roster holes with big signings. It’s often about minimizing their losses and filling holes by signing cheaper replacements.

• Prospect Talent Added: Rebuilding is an inevitable part of the game, and for teams not in a position to contend in 2017, improving the farm system becomes the No. 1 priority. So, did a team get the most out of the assets it moved?

• Remaining Needs: A simple question of how well each team addressed its areas of need this offseason.

Note: The number in parentheses following each prospect addition reflects where the player currently ranks among the organization’s top 30 prospects, according to MLB.com’s Prospect Watch.

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Got a talented homegrown pitcher? Might want to hold on to that. Could be valuable someday.

Sound advice under any circumstances. And possibly growing sounder by the day.

Seemingly everyone wants controllable pitching this winter, and the asking prices reflect as much. You’ve probably heard the Chris Archer and Jose Quintana rumors. You certainly heard about the Chris Sale trade.

That was a big one, all right. The Chicago White Sox sent the remainder of the lefty ace’s five-year contract to the Boston Red Sox for a four-player package headlined by MLB.com’s No. 1 prospect, Yoan Moncada.

Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs calculated that Sale has $84.5 million in surplus value on top of his remaining contract. Craig Edwards, also of FanGraphs, calculated that the White Sox actually got “something like” $100 million in surplus value.

Sale thus went for even more than his sticker price. It wouldn’t be surprising if the same thing happened in trades of Quintana and Archer.

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the White Sox want “something similar” to what they got for Sale in a Quintana trade. That’s not too big an ask given that he’s one of baseball’s best left-handers. And while Sale’s contract controls him through 2019, Quintana’s controls him through 2020.

Meanwhile, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Tampa Bay Rays want even more for Archer than the White Sox got for Sale. Understandable, given that he’s an elite strikeout artist with a contract that controls him through 2021.

Certainly, it’s not just ability and controllability that netted a huge trade package for Sale and which could do the same for Quintana and Archer. 

Including guaranteed years and options, Sale’s, Quintana’s and Archer’s contracts owe them less than $40 million. Fair market value for elite starters (see Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, David Price and Zack Greinke) is something like $30 million per year. You could say Sale, Quintana and Archer are making chump change, but even that’s a stretch.

Of course, they can’t be blamed for agreeing to their contracts in the first place.

They signed after they had established themselves as rising stars but before they were eligible for arbitration. They cashed in on their early success rather than risk their earning power disappearing on the road to free agency. Them being pitchers, said risk was real.

The impulse on the part of young starters to cash in ASAP isn’t going away. Neither is the willingness on the part of teams to offer them the chance to do so.

For them, early extensions are a means to cost-control arbitration years and buy out free-agent years, which typically cover prime seasons in a pitcher’s late 20s, at way-below-market rates. That’s all the incentive teams need to pursue early extensions. Just within the last four years, this is how Sale, Quintana, Archer, Julio Teheran, Yordano Ventura and Corey Kluber got locked up.

The way things are now, though, teams must ask if they suddenly have an extra incentive to pursue early extensions for their homegrown arms. Are they worth it not just for controllability and cost-control purposes, but as a means to a major trade chip in the long term as well?

This depends on the huge demand for controllable starters having lasting power beyond the present, which is admittedly less than 100 percent guaranteed.

For one thing, there has indeed only been one major trade this winter. The asking prices for Quintana and Archer may be fair relative to that one trade, but for now, asking prices is all they are.

For another thing, there are special circumstances that contributed to the demand for Sale and which are now contributing to the demand for Quintana and Archer. Teams are always in search of top-of-the-rotation starters during the offseason, and it’s never been a secret that this offseason offered none of those on the free-agent market.

The next two winters look less grim on this front. Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Danny Duffy and Chris Tillman are slated for free agency after 2017. Kershaw, Price, Matt Harvey, Dallas Keuchel and Garrett Richards could all be free agents after 2018.

However, it’s also not 100 percent guaranteed that the huge demand for controllable starters will dry up as soon as the free-agent market is stocked with arms again.

The presence of Price, Greinke and Johnny Cueto on last winter’s market didn’t stop the Atlanta Braves from making a killing in the Shelby Miller trade. He didn’t even have a pre-arbitration extension, and yet the Braves still got a No. 1 pick (Dansby Swanson), a top pitching prospect (Aaron Blair) and a controllable outfielder (Ender Inciarte) for Miller’s final four years of club control.

Without that trade to point to, the San Diego Padres might not have been able to swap two-and-a-half years of Drew Pomeranz for elite pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza over the summer. The Miller trade also looks like a prototype for the Sale trade.

Perhaps the Miller trade shifted the market for young, controllable starters on accident. Or, perhaps something like it was inevitable. Perhaps there’s now an attitude that trading for cheap pitchers in their 20s is a better use of assets than signing expensive pitchers in their 30s.

Oh, there just might be. If we use fielding independent pitching—the most basic of the popular ERA estimators—as a measuring stick, we see that the performance gap between under-30 starters and over-30 starters has shifted in favor of the former since 2013:

The same effect appears when comparing xFIP and SIERA. Young pitchers have a clear edge these days.

And since it’s been going on for four years, it looks more like a trend than a fluke. This could keep the demand for controllable starters cranked to 11, which could indeed be an extra excuse for teams to want to do early extensions.

The list of pitchers who could benefit is equal parts extensive and impressive. Set to qualify for arbitration in 2018 are Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Hendricks, Aaron Sanchez, Carlos Rodon and Robbie Ray. After 2019, Michael Fulmer, Lance McCullers, Steven Matz, Jon Gray and Vince Velasquez will be ready for their shots. After 2020, it will be Julio Urias, Alex Reyes, Blake Snell and Jameson Taillon.

That’s a lot of candidates for pre-arbitration extensions. If for no other reasons than controllability and cost control, their teams should want to get them done.

The possibility of these contracts one day being worth a fortune on the trade market could now be the proverbial cherry on top.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Much of the Major League Baseball offseason picture has been painted, yet it still looks incomplete.

Though we have a better idea of how the remainder of the winter—and, subsequently, the 2017 season—may play out, there are still questions left unanswered.

Let’s try to tackle what remains to be asked about this offseason and what these questions mean for players and teams alike heading into the 2017 season.

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