Kuzul

Offseason plans can change in a hurry. Just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates.

At the winter meetings, there were rumblings the Pirates were sellers. Specifically, they were shopping center fielder and former franchise cornerstone Andrew McCutchen. 

Trade rumors are still swirling around the 2013 National League MVP. On Thursday, though, the Bucs became buyers, inking right-hander Ivan Nova to a three-year, $26 million deal, according to FanRag Sports’ Robert Murray.

Nova is a modest splash. But couple his signing with word that Pittsburgh has “worked hard” to trade for Chicago White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana, per ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney, and you have the makings of an all-in strategy.

Why not?

Sure, the Pirates finished a disappointing 78-83 last season and missed the playoffs after three consecutive wild-card berths. 

No, Pittsburgh will never win an arms race in the NL Central with the defending champion Chicago Cubs, who have a bigger budget and a galaxy of young stars.

This team can contend, though. Another crack at the Wild Card Game is within reach, provided the Pirates stay aggressive.

Pittsburgh’s offense is more than adequate. Despite a down year from McCutchen—who posted a career-low .766 OPS—the Pirates finished sixth in the NL in runs (729) and fifth in batting average (.257).

A bounce-back year from McCutchen, assuming the Pirates keep him, could vault the lineup into the NL’s upper echelon. 

The bullpen ranked fifth in the NL with a 3.57 ERA. The loss of closer Mark Melancon, whom the Pirates dealt at the 2016 trade deadline, diminished the relief corps, but it’s not a glaring weakness. And they added right-hander Daniel Hudson for two years and $11 million. 

Instead, Pittsburgh can concentrate its resources on forming a top-flight rotation.

Inking Nova was a solid first step. The 29-year-old Dominican posted an unspectacular 4.17 ERA last season. But he upped his game after a deadline swap from the New York Yankees to Pittsburgh, going 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 64.2 innings.

After six-plus up-and-down seasons in the Bronx, Nova looked comfortable in black and yellow. 

“I don’t want to leave this clubhouse, to be honest,” he said in late September, per Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Now he doesn’t have to. He rejoins a rotation fronted by ace Gerrit Cole, who dealt with a triceps strain last season but was an All-Star and top-five NL Cy Young Award finisher in 2015.

With promising young right-handers Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow also in the mix, the Pirates already have the makings of a stout starting five.

Quintana, however, could join Cole and Nova to form a legitimate Big Three.

The 27-year-old southpaw has eclipsed 200 innings in each of the past four campaigns. Last season, he posted a career-best 3.20 ERA. If you like WAR, between 2013 and 2016, Quintana’s 18.1 mark ranked seventh among pitchers by FanGraphs’ measure. 

Most intriguingly for the budget-conscious Bucs, Quintana is locked into an affordable contract. His deal will pay him $7 million in 2017 and $8.85 million in 2018, followed by a $10.5 million team option in 2019 and an $11.5 million club option in 2020.

That said, he won’t come cheap. The White Sox asked for the Houston Astros‘ top two prospects plus another MLB-ready arm in exchange for Quintana, per baseball insider Peter Gammons. 

That means the Pirates would likely have to part with Glasnow, their No. 1 prospect, plus either outfielder/No. 2 prospect Austin Meadows or first baseman/No. 3 prospect Josh Bell and a high-upside ancillary piece. 

It’s a huge ask. Quintana is a huge get. That’s how these things work.

The Pirates’ win-now window remains open. With the Cubs representing the class of the division and the St. Louis Cardinals always lurking, however, the Pirates can’t afford to hang back, as Sean Gentille of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote:

If the Pirates feel good about their chances from now until 2019 — that is, if they feel like they said they’d feel a few years ago — they’ll keep McCutchen and actually go get Quintana. They won’t just try. They’ll make the choice to maximize whatever shot, as currently constituted, they’ve got left. They’ll do right by their fans. They’ll, you know, get better.

Re-upping Nova made them a bit better. Trading for Quintana would make them a lot better. Toss in Cole and an above-average offense and you have a postseason contender.

A few weeks ago, the Bucs appeared to be sellers. Now it’s time for them to adjust their sails.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted. Prospect ratings by MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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First it was Ryan Braun. Now it’s Brian Dozier.

It’s hardly a surprise to see the Los Angeles Dodgers linked to a right-handed hitter with power, given the difficulties they had against left-handed pitching in 2016. They were the only team to make the playoffs despite a losing record when facing a lefty starter, and they went 0-3 when facing lefties in the postseason.

Braun (1.010 OPS against left-handers in 2016) could help them. Dozier (.965) could, too.

As of this moment, the Dodgers don’t have either one. They haven’t traded for Braun, despite midseason talks that nearly led to a deal, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. They haven’t yet traded for Dozier, despite a willingness to discuss top prospect Jose De Leon, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.

Both remain available on the trade market, even though Milwaukee Brewers general manager David Stearns told Milwaukee’s 105.7 The Fan, “My expectation is that Ryan’s going to be here next year and going forward.”

You can take that to mean he hasn’t received any reasonable offers this winter, because it’s hard to believe the rebuilding Brewers wouldn’t remain open to a deal.

The question—for the Dodgers and any other team looking to trade for right-handed pop—is whether Braun or Dozier would be a bigger help. They don’t play the same position, and they don’t have the same contract, but they’re similar players in terms of offensive potential.

“Braun is a more complete hitter,” said one American League scout who saw both play last year.

“Everything equal, I would take Braun offensively,” another AL scout agreed. “But I would rather have Dozier overall.”

So would I, for reasons that go beyond Braun’s 2013 suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Braun might be a better bet to hit big in 2017. His 134 OPS+ over the last two seasons, as calculated by Baseball-Reference.com, ranked higher than Jose Bautista and Manny Machado, among others.

But Dozier hit more home runs than Braun and nearly everyone else in baseball in 2016. (He tied Edwin Encarnacion and Khris Davis for third in the majors, with 42.) Dozier, who turns 30 in May, is also three-and-a-half years younger than Braun.

Then there are the contracts.

Dozier’s is more than reasonable, with a $6 million salary for 2017 that jumps to $9 million for 2018. He’s eligible for free agency after that, so it would cost considerably more to keep him long-term. Still, he’s a bargain.

Braun is not. He makes $19 million each of the next two seasons, then $18 million in 2019 and $16 million in 2020, when he’ll be 36. He can also block trades to all but six teams. Since the Dodgers are one of the six on his list, and since they’re one of the clubs that can afford his contract, it’s not surprising that the Brewers’ most serious trade talks concerning Braun seem to have been with them.

It’s also not a surprise the Dodgers seem to prefer Dozier, who plays a position of greater need.

The Minnesota Twins should have a bigger market for the affordable Dozier, and Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports noted the San Francisco Giants’ interest on Tuesday. Beyond those two teams, though, it’s hard to come up with a contender in need of a second baseman. The Detroit Tigers faced the same issue when they gauged trade interest in their second baseman, Ian Kinsler.

Besides the better contract, Dozier has another edge. The Twins second baseman has played 155 or more games each of the last three seasons, while Braun last played 150 contests in 2012. He played 135 in 2016, never going on the disabled list but missing time with a back injury.

Braun had surgery to repair a herniated disk after the 2015 season, which surely is a concern to any team considering a trade.

Dozier doesn’t carry similar risk—or similar baggage. While Braun hasn’t been in trouble since serving his suspension, the fact he was busted for PEDs doesn’t go away.

As one anonymous team executive told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, “When a guy with that contract has been busted once, it’s hard to commit those dollars and those player resources because if he gets busted again, you lose all of your guys and you lose Braun. Nobody is saying he’d do it again, but while he’s a very good impact player, it’s just a tough one.”

With Dozier, the question is whether you believe his 2016 season was a breakout or a career year. Is he now a 40-homer-a-year guy, or will he slip back to the 18-28 range he was in before last season?

“I have more trust in Braun to maintain the consistency of impact,” one National League scout said.

Because of the contract, the acquisition cost, the back trouble and even the drug past, a team trading for Braun would be taking a bigger risk. But it could be for a bigger reward.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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There’s always going to be a reaction whenever star players change hands on the MLB trade market. Heck, it would be weird if people didn’t say, “Wow!” or some other exclamation.

But these days, we’re often saying, “Wow!” not at the reality that such players are being traded but at what they’re being traded for.

We know this because we can round up a bullet-pointed list of prominent examples from this winter, this summer and last winter. Like so…

This Winter

• The Boston Red Sox sent four prospects—including MLB.com‘s No. 1- and No. 30-ranked prospects, Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, respectively—to the Chicago White Sox for ace left-hander Chris Sale.
• The Washington Nationals sent three prospects, including No. 3-ranked Lucas Giolito and No. 38-ranked Reynaldo Lopez, to the White Sox for center fielder Adam Eaton.

This Summer

• The Cleveland Indians sent four prospects, including No. 15-ranked Clint Frazier and No. 78-ranked Justus Sheffield, to the New York Yankees for ace reliever Andrew Miller.
• The Chicago Cubs sent four players, including No. 17-ranked Gleyber Torres, to the Yankees for closer Aroldis Chapman.
• The Red Sox sent No. 13-ranked Anderson Espinoza to the San Diego Padres for All-Star lefty Drew Pomeranz.

Last Winter

• The Arizona Diamondbacks sent a controllable outfielder (Ender Inciarte), their 2015 No. 1 pick (SS Dansby Swanson) and a well-regarded pitching prospect (RHP Aaron Blair) to the Atlanta Braves for right-hander Shelby Miller.
• The Houston Astros sent six players, including hard-throwing righty Vince Velasquez and No. 83 prospect Derek Fisher, to the Philadelphia Phillies for ace reliever Ken Giles and minor league infielder Jonathan Arauz.
• The Red Sox sent four prospects, including No. 26-ranked Manuel Margot, to the Padres for closer Craig Kimbrel.

The Braves got the most praise for shaking down the Diamondbacks in the Miller trade. But to some degree or another, the sellers in each trade got thumbs-up from all corners of the baseball realm.

And this may not even be a comprehensive list of recent seller-friendly trades. There are cases to be made for the Diamondbacks in the Jean Segura trade, the Kansas City Royals in the Wade Davis trade, the Milwaukee Brewers in the Jonathan Lucroy/Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith trades, the Oakland A’s in the Rich Hill/Josh Reddick trade and the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran trade.

And so on. Point is: It’s been hard to be underwhelmed at what star talent has gone for.

It wasn’t always like this.

Five winters ago, Rany Jazayerli was lamenting at Grantland how teams no longer seemed able to trade star veterans for young studs. Just two winters ago, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs drew up a list of recent big-ticket trades and found the buyer-friendly deals easily outweighed the seller-friendly deals.

As for why this seemed so shocking, Cameron wrote:

It feels like if our default reaction to star player trades is almost always that the seller isn’t getting enough in return, then it’s more likely that our expectations are what is out of whack, and not that every team selling a star player is misreading the market for their player.

Survey says: yup.

While NFL and NBA fans have long obsessed over the next wave of talent playing in the college and high school ranks, it’s more recently that baseball fans have taken to obsessing over the next wave of talent playing in the minor leagues. That’s partially owed to the proliferation of prospect coverage on the series of tubes known as the “internet.”

But it’s also a reaction to reality.

In 2014, FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Paine pointed out that MLB’s star power had been shifting to younger players as the league moved further past the steroid era. And it hasn’t stopped. FanGraphs‘ WAR claims that the last two years have been the best ever for 25-and-under hitters. Young pitchers, meanwhile, have at least guaranteed big radar gun readings.

Of course, this isn‘t just an excuse for fans to grow attached to prospects. It’s also an excuse for major league front offices to do the same.

In cases like the Astros and Cubs, that’s meant tearing down what they had and using the draft and international market to build contenders from scratch. More recently, the Braves, Brewers, Phillies, Padres and now the White Sox have set themselves on that path.

At the same time, there’s also the effect that the second wild card has had since it was introduced in 2012. It’s emboldened more teams to try and contend every year. So while every team now values young talent, there’s also a sharp line between two different classes of teams. There are the few rebuilders and the many contenders.

In an environment like this—one with lots of young talent to go around and some teams having more incentive than others to stockpile it—it may have been just a matter of time before seller-friendly trades became more common. All that was needed was the same thing the Joker tells us connects madness and gravity: a little push.

What happened last winter seems to have done the trick.

Last offseason’s free-agent class was by far the best in recent memory and was paid accordingly. Per Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors, nearly $2.5 billion was spent on free agents. That made the trade market the only place teams could look for relatively cheap impact talent. 

This set the stage for the Kimbrel, Giles and Miller trades, which went down within a month of each other. The trade that sent Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees didn’t fit for extraordinary circumstances, but those three trades effectively pushed the trade market’s scales in favor of sellers.

The summer trade market then provided the perfect environment for other sellers to take advantage. The second wild card created the usual gap between buyers and sellers around the trade deadline, but there was an extra wrinkle this time around. Clubs like the Reds, Phillies, Braves and Padres had largely already stripped themselves of their best trade chips. Other clubs like the Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels had good players but none really for sale.

The many teams looking to deal for impact talent thus had very few sellers to turn to, creating the ultimate seller’s market. That was good news for the Yankees, especially, who made the gutsy (and correct) call to pull the plug on a mediocre present to take aim at a brighter future.

Which brings us to this winter, in which the seller-friendly trade market has been upheld by an old-fashioned market force: supply and demand.

This winter’s free-agent market is the polar opposite of last year’s market. Keith Law of ESPN.com spoke for everyone in writing it “might be the worst I’ve ever seen.” He specifically lamented the market’s lack of athleticism and starting pitching, the latter of which wasn’t lost on executives.

“The starting pitching landscape this offseason has been a story for what, 18 months now?” Tampa Bay Rays general manager Erik Neander told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. “There’s been as much of an advance-notice publicly as there’s been in a while with respect to a free-agent class.”

This put the White Sox in an enviable position with Sale, and they took advantage of it. While nobody seems to think the Red Sox made a horrible trade, the White Sox may have gotten just as much applause for the return they got. Even Red Sox boss Dave Dombrowski admitted he paid a heavy price.

“There will come a day when Moncada is putting in his 15-year career that we will be saying, ‘The Red Sox, geez, I can’t believe we traded that guy,'” he told Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “So yes, it does complicate it. He’s a great player. If he’s not a tremendous player, I’ll be very surprised.”

The White Sox were in a similar position with Eaton, whose athleticism elevated him amid a market dominated by one-dimensional sluggers. This time, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reported the reaction among executives was decidedly pro-White Sox.

“I love Eaton. But I’m pretty shocked,” said one.

The lack of athleticism on the open market likely also helped the Diamondbacks swap Segura for the upside that Walker, a former elite prospect, may still have. Before the winter is over, it’s a good bet that another team will get a big return for a starting pitcher (sideways glance at Jose Quintana).

Another good bet is that life won’t always be this good for the trade market’s sellers. These things go in cycles. The next one will either be the market evening out or shifting back in favor of buyers.

By the same token, the shift in favor of sellers over the last year is something that was likely inevitable and that has been realized by a perfect storm of circumstances.

If nothing else, a reminder that such things don’t happen by accident.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract and payroll data courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America have until Dec. 31 to submit their Hall of Fame ballots, and the results will be announced Jan. 6.

It’s not too early to stack up odds for the 2017 class, though, using past trends and exit polling of BBWAA voters as a guide.

There are no first-ballot locks in this group. There are, however, several guys who should keep their schedules clear for the July 30 induction ceremony, including a perennial HOF also-ran in his final year of eligibility. 

Voters will once again wrestle with Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, statistical titans stained by the steroid era, and they’ll consider a handful of borderline cases sure to spark debate.

Feel free to sound off with your picks in the comments, and proceed when ready. 

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The Cleveland Indians left the rest of the American League in their dust in the 2016 MLB playoffs. After winning 94 games in the regular season, they won seven of eight games en route to a near miss in the World Series.      

But a couple of AL clubs have made key additions since then, so clearly the only thing the Indians could do in response is sign the best free agent remaining on the market.

OK, maybe it’s not the only thing they could have done. But after weeks of will-they-or-won’t-they rumors and speculation, the Indians finally went ahead and signed Edwin Encarnacion on Thursday. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the veteran slugger is joining up on a three-year contract:

Cleveland can consider this a discount. According to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, Encarnacion once had an $80 million offer on the table to return to the Toronto Blue Jays. He was projected by MLB Trade Rumors to sign for even more at $92 million.

The fact that Encarnacion is settling for a $65 million deal might tell us that he overplayed his hand on this winter’s market by rejecting Toronto’s $80 million offer. It certainly didn’t help his case that he was sharing space with a collection of similarly one-dimensional sluggers.

But more to the point, it tells us that Cleveland could see what the rest of us could see: It had an opening for a right-handed slugger who could fit at first base and designated hitter.

That was Mike Napoli’s job in 2016, and he did it splendidly by posting an .800 OPS and tying Carlos Santana for the team lead with 34 home runs. But now he’s a free agent. And while Napoli would have come cheaper than Encarnacion, the extra money spent Thursday has bought a significant upgrade.

This isn’t a scorching take, is it? Nah, I don’t think so.

Encarnacion has hit 193 home runs since 2012, 77 more than Napoli and only four fewer than league leader Chris Davis. By adjusted OPS+, Encarnacion has also been one of the AL’s five best hitters over the last five seasons:

1. Mike Trout: 173
2. Miguel Cabrera: 166
3. David Ortiz: 154
4. Edwin Encarnacion: 146
5. Jose Abreu: 143

Beyond Encarnacion’s ties to draft-pick compensation and his limited skill set, his red flags are his age (34 in January) and his escalating strikeout rate.

But as long as he’s only being weighed against the incumbent Napoli, neither thing is a big concern for Cleveland. Encarnacion is a year younger, and he won’t be anything close to the strikeout black hole Napoli was.

Now, if anyone wants to get technical, the Indians didn’t really need an upgrade as substantial as Encarnacion.

That would imply that they didn’t already have an easy road to a playoff spot in 2017. They did. They’re part of an MLB landscape that, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted, might not feature any division races. They were projected for 89 wins before signing Encarnacion, six more than the next best projection in the AL Central. 

However, Cleveland’s unfinished business for 2017 isn’t winning the division. It’s winning the World Series. 

Two AL teams figured to make that tough. The Boston Red Sox began the winter as a good team and got better after adding Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg. The Houston Astros also began the winter as a good team and got better with Josh Reddick, Brian McCann and Charlie Morton. Both the Red Sox (93 wins) and the Astros (90 wins) were projected to win more games than Cleveland.

That’s changed. Encarnacion’s signing has boosted the Indians’ projection to 92 wins. They’re right there with the Red Sox and Astros on paper, and even that undersells their World Series aspirations.

This is a team that just won a division title without virtually any help from star outfielder Michael Brantley and only half a season of Andrew Miller’s dominance out of the bullpen. They also won a pennant without any help from Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar in the postseason.

They’ll all be back in 2017, and it’s certainly worth noting that guys like Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Corey Kluber and Cody Allen haven’t gone anywhere. Neither has Terry Francona, who just won his second Manager of the Year award in four seasons in Cleveland.

Signing Encarnacion was really the only big move the Indians needed to make. He obviously helps them on a macro level. On a micro level, he could be a weapon against Boston’s ace lefties (Sale and David Price) and a terror at the bandbox that is Minute Maid Park in any potential postseason matchups.

The catch, such as it is, is that he’s costing the Indians more money than they’ve ever spent on a free agent. He’s also costing them the No. 25 pick in the 2017 draft. This is a heavy price for the normally thrifty Indians to pay.

But if ever there were time for them to do so, it’s right now.

For one thing, the club’s financials are in better shape than they have been in some time. According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, executives estimate their trip to the World Series was worth “tens of millions” of extra dollars. Rosenthal also noted Cleveland “almost certainly” benefited from welcoming Kansas City entrepreneur John Sherman as a minority ownership partner. 

As for the lost draft pick, some consolation there is that No. 25 is a relatively low pick. Further consolation is that now is not the time for Cleveland to worry about stockpiling young talent.

Their goal is to win it all right now. They had enough to do that before signing Encarnacion. Now they have everything they need.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. 

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Rumors, rumors and more rumors. They are the fuel for baseball fanatics in the coldest months and the fodder for discussion when baseball is generally overshadowed by football, basketball and hockey.

Below, we’ll break down some of the rumors surrounding the biggest sluggers on the market and predict their most likely destinations. 

Jose Bautista

If any Toronto Blue Jays fans were holding out hope that the team might reunite with slugger Jose Bautista, well, Jon Morosi of MLB Network likely splashed a big old bucket of cold water on those wishes:

Toronto’s price may go up at some point and Bautista‘s down, of course. It’s hard to say given how loaded the market remains with power hitters. Toronto likely took itself out of the Edwin Encarnacion market (more on him below), however, when it signed Kendrys Morales to be the team’s designated hitter.

Encarnacion served as the team’s designated hitter 86 times last season, more than any other player, per Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet.

But there may yet be room for Bautista in Toronto’s outfield, depending on how his cost settles in the market. It seems unlikely that Bautista will be back—if there was general interest from both sides, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays wouldn’t have made him a better offer—but it’s probably not completely out of the realm of possibility just yet.

The Blue Jays, by signing Morales over Encarnacion, gave themselves financial flexibility, even if it was at the expense of lineup flexibility (Morales is not a position player at this point). That leaves a glimmer of possibility that Bautista might return. But it’s just a glimmer.

I still believe Bautista could land with the Boston Red Sox if he’s willing to sign a shorter deal and take less money than he might get elsewhere. After clearing some salary by trading Clay Buchholz to the Philadelphia Phillies, per Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, Boston has financial wiggle room. But that’s wiggle room it would probably be wise to carry into the season, in case it needs to add a player via trade for a postseason run.

Prediction: Blue Jays

Edwin Encarnacion

The aforementioned Encarnacion remains the top hitter on the market, and several teams are still in the running, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Among them, somewhat surprisingly, is the Oakland Athletics:

It isn’t known whether the A’s are just one of the likely bargain hunters at this point, but they’ve occasionally stepped out of character, like when they made a bold run at Adrian Beltre, offering him $65 million before he went to the rival Rangers for $80 million plus an option that took him to $96 million.

The A’s would not lose a first-round draft choice should they signed a top free agent like Encarnacion since they finished with one of the bottom 10 records last year.

The Blue Jays also remain in the running, per Heyman, though they seem likely to be long shots at this point. Cleveland remains a possibility, per Heyman, but it is trying to get a bargain price for a player like Encarnacion, Mike Napoli or Chris Carter, so it’s hard to say how serious their interest is in Encarnacion.

Morosi adds the Rangers to the list of possible suitors:

Joel Sherman of the New York Post took the Red Sox out of the running, however:

Encarnacion‘s big bat will land him a big payday. Thus far, however, the interest in his services isn‘t quite as frenzied as perhaps the slugger might have hoped it would be for a player with 34 or more home runs in five straight seasons.

Prediction: Rangers

Mark Trumbo

Mark Trumbo is the remaining domino in the slugger market, and a return to the Baltimore Orioles is hardly guaranteed, per Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com:

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the other logical suitor for Trumbo at the moment seems to be the Colorado Rockies, though “sources say that the Rockies’ chances of signing him—at least for the moment—are unlikely.”

The team signing Ian Desmond might have something to do with that, though if it finds a trade partner for the talented Charlie Blackmon and slides Desmond back into the outfield—rather than play him at first base—Trumbo would make more sense in Colorado.

That’s a lot of potential dominoes to fall, though. Which makes Baltimore the most likely destination for Trumbo at this point.

Prediction: Orioles

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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The Chicago Cubs finally won the World Series in 2016. And by looking at their roster, it sure looks like they can turn right around and win another in 2017.

So, they might as well set their sights on the more distant future—specifically on how long they can keep Kris Bryant around with a contract extension worthy of his talents.

The Cubs don’t need their star third baseman to prove anything else. All he’s done in the last four years is make everyone else look bad. Bryant was Baseball America‘s College Player of the Year and the No. 2 pick in the draft in 2013. He was the Minor League Player of the Year in 2014. He was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2015. This year, he was the NL MVP and a World Series champion.

Bryant already owns a .900 career OPS with 65 home runs and 21 stolen bases. The 24-year-old has been one of the most valuable players in baseball since 2015. He also holds a special place in the wins above replacement rankings for third basemen through two seasons:

1. Kris Bryant: 13.6
2. Evan Longoria: 11.8
3. Wade Boggs: 11.7
4. Eddie Mathews: 10.6
5. Art Devlin: 8.9

At the risk of stating the obvious, here goes nothing: Bryant is not only the best player on the Cubs but just the kind of player they should want as their franchise cornerstone.

There’s no hurry for the Cubs to extend Bryant. He’s not arbitration-eligible until 2018. And thanks to some shady service-time manipulation, Bryant’s not due for free agency until after the 2021 season.

But if nothing else, starting extension talks with Bryant would be a much-needed show of good faith by Chicago.

Though the Cubs were within their rights to keep him in the minors at the start of 2015 and thus extend his club control from six years to seven, Bryant and agent Scott Boras were miffed about it enough to file a grievance.

This spring, Bryant played the good soldier but also let slip his hope that baseball’s next collective bargaining agreement would open a window for him to hit free agency earlier.

“I don’t know if I should speak on any of that, just because I’m still young,” he told Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago in mid-March. “I’m still trying to figure out the process of how things work. And if that happens, that would be great.”

Bryant didn’t get his wish, as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reported Dec. 2 that the new CBA did nothing to alter his situation. Regardless, it may not be long before he becomes considerably less amenable to signing an extension.

He is, after all, a Boras client. Such players have generally been exempt from the recent trend of teams locking up their homegrown stars with big extensions. Boras‘ preference is to take his guys to free agency, where the prices are higher.

And right now, the going rate for superstar free agents is close to skyrocketing.

It’s all about the 2018-19 offseason. That’s when Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and other notables are due for free agency. The biggest contracts in baseball are worth around $25 million to $30 million per year. The 2018-19 offseason could boost that figure to $35 million to $40 million per year.

Once Bryant and Boras see such figures with Bryant only three years from his turn, there will be little chance they settle for a more team-friendly offer from the Cubs.

Now is just the right time for such an offer.

A ton of money will come off the Cubs’ books after 2017. Also, the short distance between Bryant and his arbitration eligibility and the long distance between him and his free agency could make him willing to trade long-term earning power for immediate financial security.

The most obvious comparison to Bryant’s situation is the one that preceded Mike Trout’s signing a six-year, $144.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels in 2014.

That was not only a case of an elite young player who signed for big money, but Trout was also fresh off his first two full seasons and heading into his final pre-arbitration season. His extension bought out all three of his arbitration years and three free-agent seasons.

The money in Trout’s deal ($24.1 million per year) is close to what Bryant and the Cubs could agree on. The difference is that he’s older now than Trout was in 2014, which raises complications.

If Bryant were to sign a six-year contract that started in his first arbitration year in 2018, he’d be giving away only two free-agent years but also setting himself up to hit the market after his age-31 season in 2023. That’s older than most teams like their free agents, which won’t be lost on Boras.

The Cubs could settle for buying only one year of Bryant’s free agency, of course. But if they’re going to spend big on him this early, they’ll want to ensure they get him for more than just one year longer than they’re projected to. And since he’s so far from free agency at this point, there’s also the question of why the man himself would give up any free-agent years.

The best way around these issues? How about copying what the Miami Marlins did with Giancarlo Stanton?

The 13-year, $325 million contract Stanton signed in 2015 is known for being the largest in professional sports history. But due to the opt-out after 2020, it’s really a six-year, $107 million contract with a seven-year, $218 million option. It will be a huge payday if Stanton serves the whole thing, but he has a window to even more riches if they’re there for the taking.

Mind you, the Cubs couldn’t get away with back-loading a similar deal as much as the Marlins did. Bryant’s too good for that.

“Stanton is great, but for me, I’d rather have Bryant over any player in the game not named Mike Trout,” one NL executive told John Perrotto of FanRag Sports in November.

But if the Cubs offered, say, $25 million per year for six years with an opt-out after 2023 and $30 million-plus per year afterward, they could soon have Bryant’s signature on the dotted line. Such a deal would up the ante on the biggest contract in history and also give Bryant a chance to earn even more money.

Whether it’s a shorter deal or a longer deal with an escape hatch, the numbers in any extension for Bryant are going to be either big or bigger. This is what he’s earned after establishing himself as such a special talent, and the Cubs should be more than happy to oblige him.

If this isn’t already a top priority, it should be sooner rather than later.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract and payroll data courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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This MLB offseason offered little in terms of impact pitchers. And as we look to round third base on it, any that were available are now off the market.

The big three closers—Mark Melancon (San Francisco Giants), Kenley Jansen (Los Angeles Dodgers) and Aroldis Chapman (New York Yankees)—all signed with teams. The Chicago White Sox sent starting pitcher Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox, and the Kansas City Royals shipped closer Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs.

It has left the market for pitchers looking like August in Death Valley.

No need to look toward a higher power for rain here. All it takes is a few willing executives to reinvigorate the pitching market. Given the climate, that may be advantageous for those holding pitching talent.

Let’s take a look at some pitchers MLB teams should consider selling. 

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The Boston Red Sox cleared their starting-pitching logjam Tuesday by trading Clay Buchholz to the Philadelphia Phillies, per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman.

The Phils, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, sent minor league infielder Josh Tobias to Boston and assumed all of Buchholz’s $13.5 million salary in 2017.

The Red Sox got salary relief. The Phillies got a talented-if-flawed lottery ticket. There are question marks and causes for handwringing, as we’ll delve into shortly. From here, though, it looks like a win-win.

Boston selected Buchholz 42nd overall in 2005 with the compensatory pick they received after Pedro Martinez signed with the New York Mets. He debuted in 2007 and twirled a no-hitter against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park in his second start.

Needless to say, the Beantown faithful had high hopes.

Buchholz showed flashes throughout his 10 seasons with Boston. He made two All-Star teams, in 2010 and 2013, and finished sixth in American League Cy Young Award balloting in 2010, when he led the majors with a 187 ERA+.

Injuries, however, took their toll. Buchholz never threw more than 189.1 innings in a season. Before 2016, he went to the disabled list seven times in his career with the Red Sox. In 2016, he was temporarily bumped from the rotation and finished with a 4.78 ERA in 139.1 frames.

He’s a mixed bag—no argument there—and he’s the poster boy for the “injury-prone” label.

There are causes for optimism, though. Buchholz’s average fastball sat at 92.1 mph in 2016—right around his career average of 92.7 mph. He also finished on a strong note, winning five of six decisions and posting a 2.86 ERA in his final 56.2 innings.

“He’s pitching his best baseball of this year at the right time for us,” Red Sox skipper John Farrell said in early September, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “You can’t give Clay enough credit. … I’m very proud of him. Proud of the resiliency he has shown.”

Buchholz became expendable after the Red Sox acquired ace Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox to join a rotation headlined by reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello, David Price and knuckleballer Steven Wright.

Boston could have traded another arm, such as lefty Drew Pomeranz, and likely gotten a better return in prospects. The 24-year-old Tobias, who played at High-A last season, profiles as a fringe big leaguer at best.

Boston, however, gave itself some payroll flexibility. It’s unlikely the Red Sox will use that money now, but it could come in handy if they want to add a veteran piece at the deadline and may protect them from luxury-tax penalties.

The Phillies, likewise, have a crowded rotation that features Jeremy Hellickson, Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola and Vincent Velasquez, with Alec Asher, Zach Eflin, and Jake Thompson also in the mix.

Buchholz could slot into the bullpen. Considering his price tag, however, Philadelphia will surely give him a shot to crack the rotation.

The obvious question is why the Phillies, a young team in the midst of a rebuild, want an expensive one-year rental.

It’s actually part of a pattern. Philadelphia also acquired veteran infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick and reliever Pat Neshek this winter—who each have one year left on their contracts—and signed reliever Joaquin Benoit to a one-year pact.

The idea, possibly, is to see if these veteran pieces can mesh with the Phillies’ young core and vault the club into contention in the National League East. Philadelphia finished 71-91 last season but played .500 ball through May. They’re a team on the rise.

If the Phils are fading by the trade deadline, they can dangle their veteran rentals.

Buchholz won’t have much value if he gets hurt or flounders. That’s what makes it a gamble. If he stays off the disabled list and pitches like he did down the stretch in 2016, however, he could bring back a far greater prospect package in late July than he cost the Phillies in mid-December.

As for the money, the Phillies have enough inexpensive pieces on their roster to offset Buchholz’s price tag. Plus, they’re locked into a 25-year, $2.5 billion TV deal.

Getting back to the Red Sox: As enigmatic as he was, Buchholz was their longest-tenured pitcher. In fact, with Buchholz gone, only one member of the Boston roster has been around since 2012, as MLB.com’s Ian Browne pointed out:

It’s the end of the era, even if it was a frequently frustrating era. That deserves at least a passing mention. Buchholz pitched on a World Series winner in 2013, and he’ll always have that rookie no-no.

Now, the Red Sox get to move on. And the Phillies get a chance to see if they can figure Buchholz out.

It’s an intriguing, bittersweet proposition with win-win possibilities.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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The MLB trade market has already been vibrant this offseason—even before many of the big names in free agency were taken off the market—but there continues to be plenty of buyers and sellers this winter.

Below, we’ll break down a few of the biggest rumors circulating throughout the baseball world.

New York Yankees Showing Interest in Jose Quintana

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the New York Yankees were eyeing Chicago White Sox ace Jose Quintana:

Andrew Marchand of ESPN.com, however, doesn’t feel a deal is likely:

Yankees GM Brian Cashman has repeatedly said he is pessimistic about adding another quality starter this winter. That, of course, won’t cool down the Hot Stove with the latest re-linking the Yankees to the White Sox Jose Quintana. Cashman touches base for nearly every available player; especially when it is need base. However, the White Sox want a boatload of prospects. The Yankees have been disinclined to trade any of them so, unless that changes, it seems unlikely Quintana will end up in the Bronx.

Quintana, 27, would certainly upgrade the team’s rotation. He went 13-12 in 2016 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 208 innings pitched, which marked his fourth straight season with at least 200 innings pitched.

He’s also under contract for the next four years at $36.8 million, per Spotrac—with two club-option years at the end of the contract that includes a $1 million buyout—making him incredibly affordable. So the White Sox will likely need to be blown away by an offer to move Quintana.

Certainly, the Yankees could use an upgrade in a rotation that includes Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and potentially Luis Severino, and the White Sox have proved to be sellers this offseason. But Chicago has no reason to move Quintana without getting several top prospects back in return, a price point the Yankees seem unlikely to meet.

New York Mets Still Seeking to Move an Outfielder

It’s no secret that the New York Mets have a bit of a logjam in the outfield, with Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares. Cespedes has left field locked down, but the Mets still find themselves with too many corner outfielders who need to play.

As Mike Petriello of MLB.com noted, the Mets are trying to move one of them:

The Mets are trying to alleviate the outfield glut by trading one, likely Bruce, even though teams reportedly prefer Granderson. Assuming they successfully do move one, they’ve said they’d be willing to get by with some combination of Granderson, Conforto and Lagares in center. Bruce isn’t an option there, which is why they’d much rather move him than Granderson.

This has been one of the biggest storylines of the offseason for the Mets, though it likely won’t be resolved until some of the bigger names in free agency are signed and teams turn to the trade market to address their lineup issues.

Until then, the Mets play the waiting game. 

Seattle Mariners in the Market for a Starting Pitcher

According to Bob Dutton of the News Tribune, the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays have had talks revolving around Tampa’s starting pitchers. Dutton reported that the Rays were making Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly available via trade, though he added that they were asking a “stiff price” for Archer and Odorizzi.

That left Smyly as the most realistic option for the Mariners, joining a slew of potential trade targets that includes Cincinnati’s Anthony DeSclafani, Boston’s Drew Pomeranz and the Los Angeles Dodgers pair of Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy, according to Dutton.

The team’s rotation remains a major area in need of some improvement heading into 2017, and in the deep American League West—the Texas Rangers will be contenders once again, while the Houston Astros have improved this offseason—the Mariners can’t afford to fall behind in the arms race. 

At some point, the Mariners will swing a deal for a starting pitcher. It would seem they are casting a net in their search for the right fit.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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