Kuzul

Early in the offseason, the Detroit Tigers hung up a “For Sale” sign. Turns out when you flip it over it says “Just Kidding!”

OK, that’s an exaggeration.

First, the winter isn’t over. Detroit could still offload one or more of its tradeable veteran assets. Plus, the Tigers never committed to a full-scale fire sale.

“I’ve talked to all the guys—[Miguel] Cabrera and [Justin] Verlander and [Ian] Kinsler and guys like that—just to let them know, Hey this is just the way it is and it’s part of the business but not to worry about anything unless I call them,” Detroit general manager Al Avila said Nov. 8 on MLB Now (via MLB.com).

That’s not a promise to sell, sell, sell. It sure sounds like a GM who’s prepared to entertain offers, though.

Instead, it’s been silent as a Tesla in the Motor City. Yes, the Tigers sent center fielder Cameron Maybin to the Los Angeles Angels for minor league right-hander Victor Alcantara on Nov. 3.

All of their big pieces remain on the roster, however, and they seem increasingly likely to go for it in 2017.

That’s a mistake. There’s no other way to put it.

Sure, Detroit could sniff the playoffs. It won 86 games in 2016, good for second place in the American League Central. FanGraphs projects an 83-79 record for the Tigers in 2017 and another finish just outside the money.

The Central is winnable. The defending AL champion Cleveland Indians haven’t made any major offseason splashes. Neither have the Kansas City Royals, who could be sellers. The Chicago White Sox are definitely sellers, and the young Minnesota Twins took a big step back last season.

But with the Boston Red Sox stockpiling out East and the Houston Astros doing the same in the West, the Junior Circuit bar is being set.

Hanging around the fringe isn’t enough for Detroit. The Tigers aren’t some burgeoning up-and-comer; nor are they a franchise starved for a taste of the postseason.

Between 2011 and 2014, Detroit advanced to the playoffs four times, to the American League Championship Series three times and to the World Series once.

Add another unsuccessful trip to the Fall Classic in 2006, and Tigers fans have been treated to their share of October action in the past decade.

What they deserve now is either a full-bore run at the franchise’s first championship since 1984 or a strategic, unambiguous rebuild.

What they’re getting instead is the equivalent of treading water.

Detroit isn’t going to spend on any of this year’s first- or second-tier free-agents. That much is obvious.

To truly contend, the club needs to upgrade a bullpen that finished 24th in baseball with a 4.22 ERA. Yet the Tigers weren’t even an also-ran on top free-agent closers such as Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, and they haven’t made any impact relief additions.

They could also stand to fortify their rotation. Verlander is fresh off a superlative season that should have netted him the AL Cy Young Award, and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer is an exciting building block.

Right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, whom the Tigers signed for five years and $110 million last November, started strong but battled groin and neck injuries and finished with a 4.87 ERA.

Mike Pelfrey (5.07 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (5.87 ERA) are likewise questionable. Daniel Norris went 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA, but the 23-year-old left-hander also dealt with injuries and has yet to prove himself over a full season.

Detroit ranked fourth in the majors in OPS last season, but its offensive core is aging. Cabrera will turn 34 in April, and Victor Martinez will be 38 on Friday. Each played more than 150 games last season, but at some point, injuries and decline will hit.

Maybe it won’t be next year. Maybe the Tigers could make one more run if they bolstered their bullpen and rotation. They don’t have the monetary flexibility, though, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick noted:

When you can’t pony up for a backup catcher, it’s safe to say the budget’s busted.

Instead, Detroit should look to the White Sox and New York Yankees, who have unloaded veteran assets to shed payroll and restock their farm systems.

The Tigers’ farm, which Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 25 in the game in September, could use an infusion of talent.

Right fielder J.D. Martinez will be a free agent after this season. Kinsler is signed through 2017 with a team option for 2018. Their stock will likely never be higher.

Moving Verlander would be a trickier proposition. Given the paucity of pitching available this winter, though, it’s worth wondering what the Tigers could have gotten for their ace and whether they’ll regret not exploring it further.

Again, the offseason isn’t over. There’s time for Detroit to swing a swap or two. If the club is floundering at the trade deadline, the pressure to deal will increase.

Verlander, or Cabrera, might have as much value then as they do now. On the other hand, they might not. The same, and then some, goes for Kinsler and J.D. Martinez.

What the Tigers don’t want, and can’t afford, is to delay the inevitable until it’s too late. Painful as it is, when you hang up that “For Sale” sign, at a certain point you’ve got to keep it there.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Nobody can fault the New York Yankees if they’re getting cold feet with their plan to take the long way back to success, but the best advice for them right now is to stay the course.

That would involve not making a trade for Chicago White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana. As Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported Monday, that’s something the Yankees are at least interested in doing:

What we have here is a team with a square hole to fill casting its gaze on a square peg.

The Yankees added a major piece to their bullpen when they brought back Aroldis Chapman on an $86 million contract. However, even he and Dellin Betances can only pick up so much slack for a starting rotation that’s littered with question marks beyond Masahiro Tanaka.

Quintana would be quite the answer to that problem.

Although he’s so far spent his big league career playing Garfunkel to Chris Sale’s Simon, Quintana’s no slouch. He’s posted a 3.35 ERA across 814.2 innings over the last four seasons. He’s actually produced more wins above replacement than Sale, who turned his Sox from White to Red during the winter meetings, since the start of 2015.

As if that alone didn’t give him enough value, Quintana also offers something that makes baseball executives swoon: cheap control. Including options, his contract runs through 2020 for $37.85 million.

For the rebuilding White Sox, Quintana’s oodles of value are worth a big ol’ bucket of prospects in a trade. Morosi’s right about that being another thing that makes him a fit for the Yankees.

They went into 2016 with a decent farm system and came out of it with an elite one. That was thanks to the Yanks accepting their grim reality and aiming for a bright future by trading Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran. When Jim Callis of MLB.com sized up the league’s farm systems in August, he ranked the Yankees’ system at No. 2.

However, there is a difference between a trade that can be made and a trade that should be made. Quintana to the Yankees is certainly the former, but it falls short of the latter.

If anyone were to drop in on Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and tell him as much, he might say they’re preaching to the choir. This was ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand’s response to the Quintana report:

Cashman touches base for nearly every available player; especially when it is need based. However, the White Sox want a boatload of prospects. The Yankees have been disinclined to trade any of them so, unless that changes, it seems unlikely Quintana will end up in the Bronx.

If so, Cashman would be sticking to what he said in early October about not wanting to take a newly minted elite farm system and immediately empty it again.

“You’d have to be one piece away, and I would not recommend that type of decision-making as we approach the 2017 season,” he said of the possibility of making any big trades, per the Associated Press via ESPN.com. “I think that would be a dangerous approach.”

Still, it’s possible Cashman’s trade finger is itchier now than it was before.

The Yankees did end 2016 on a positive note, riding a boost from Gary Sanchez and other youngsters to a 40-34 record in the second half. And while he’ll be sticking around through at least 2019 and possibly through 2021, signing Chapman was more of a win-now move than a win-later move.

Right now, the Yankees are on the Kansas City Royals/Chicago Cubs path to success. But from the above seeds could grow a desire to shorten the road to contention.

FanGraphs’ projections for 2017 now have the Yankees in the “not quite in it, not quite out of it” range with an 83-79 record. Adding Quintana would put them closer to the Red Sox in the AL East power structure and perhaps elevate them above all other American League wild-card contenders.

But at what cost? Glad you asked, Anonymous Internet Person.

Craig Edwards of FanGraphs put the rough estimate for Quintana’s surplus value on top of his contract at $80 to $90 million. That’s not far off what the White Sox received in the Sale trade, which netted them No. 1 prospect Yoan Moncada and more, and it makes it possible to guess at what the Yankees would have to give up to get Quintana.

Going off the prospect values offered by Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli at The Point of Pittsburgh, the Yankees would likely have to base an offer around a hitter ranked in the 11-25 range of Baseball America‘s top 100. Such players carry $62 million in surplus value.

Per Baseball America‘s most recent top 100, that would mean a trade based around shortstop Jorge Mateo (No. 19) or outfielder Clint Frazier (No. 21), with shortstop Gleyber Torres (No. 27) possibly being close enough to make the grade.

And that’s just to start.

The Yankees might have to add outfielder Aaron Judge (No. 42) or outfielder Blake Rutherford, a 2016 first-round pick who checks in at No. 51 for MLB.com. If not, surely the worst secondary piece the White Sox would settle for is left-hander Justus Sheffield, who’s No. 69 for Baseball America.

The upside of sacrificing this much prospect depth would be a couple extra wins on the Yankees’ 2017 projection. But not even a trade for Clayton Kershaw would be enough to make up the gap between them and the Red Sox, which currently stands at 10 games. To be safe, the Yankees would need more.

To be sure, they could indeed add more. They would still have pieces to trade for another starter. They could also sign one of the market’s remaining sluggers (Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, et al) to lengthen out their lineup.

But if the Yankees were to go that route, they’ll have fallen right back in the same trap that necessitated them finally stockpiling prospects in the first place. They would have a team that would be good without being heavy favorites now, and which would have little young talent or payroll space with which to fix problems in the future.

The alternative is remaining patient and building something much stronger from the ground up.

The Yankees have already started doing this with Sanchez, Judge and Greg Bird lined up for regular roles in 2017. When their other young talents arrive, they’ll be sitting on a young core the likes of which the franchise hasn’t seen since the Core Four materialized two decades ago—yes, it has been that long.

It worked for the Royals. It worked for the Cubs. If they let it, it can work for the Yankees too.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Nothing raises the ire of a fanbase during the offseason more than inactivity.

It’s hard to get excited about a Rule 5 selection or a non-roster invitee when other teams are spending millions of dollars on established MLB talent and filling roster holes left and right.

Of course, recent seasons have proved that a loud winter does not guarantee success during the upcoming season.

Just ask the 2015 San Diego Padres.

It’s also only the middle of December, so there’s plenty of time for an inactive team to make a splash before the offseason ends.

With that in mind, the following is a look at five potential contenders that have been largely inactive so far this offseason, and whether it’s time for panic or patience with regard to their offseason approach based on remaining roster holes, salary flexibility and the rumor mill.

Begin Slideshow

With the holiday season fast approaching, most major business around Major League Baseball is nearing its conclusion. Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Yoenis Cespedes have all found huge contracts, as have Justin Turner, Mark Melancon and Dexter Fowler.

Other lesser free agents, like Neil Walker and Jeremy Hellickson, accepted huge one-year qualifying offers to stick around in their current digs. The stragglers remaining on the market consist of two big-time sluggers being tepidly pursued due to their qualifying offers (Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista) and another who packs a lot of pop to go with bouts of inconsistency (Mark Trumbo).

As such, some teams have turned to stoking the trade hot stove to land an impact player. Others remain hopeful on the free-agent market that the likes of Encarnacion or Bautista will lower their prices, or perhaps another bargain will emerge on a short-term contract.

Here’s an updated look at one of the biggest names generating trade buzz and some free-agency talk.

Orioles Back Away from Trumbo Talks

Trumbo is the most attainable slugger left on the market. He does not come attached to a qualifying offer, which would force teams to surrender a first-round pick in exchange for his services. He’s also a deeply flawed player and one of the worst individual defenders in baseball when on the field—he absolutely needs to hit with elite power to be effective.

In 2016, Trumbo did just that. His 47 home runs blasted his previous career high and were four more than anyone else. It speaks to his level of poor defensive skills that Trumbo walked away with just 2.2 wins above replacement last season, per FanGraphs.

With most teams recognizing Trumbo is better off as a designated hitter—especially as his next contract takes him deeper into his 30s—the market has been tepid. Even 10 years ago, Trumbo likely would have commanded a multiyear deal that pushed close to nine figures. Now he’s having trouble finding a deal he’s even willing to take.

Roch Kubatko of MASN reported the Orioles have grown disillusioned with Trumbo’s asking price and pulled their offer. ESPN’s Buster Olney previously reported Baltimore offered a four-year deal worth between $52 million and $55 million, while Trumbo’s counter asked for $75 million to $80 million over the same stretch.

The Orioles are the more realistic party in this scenario. No team in its right mind should be offering Trumbo $20 million per season. He’d belted 36 home runs total over his previous two seasons before breaking out in 2016 and was actually worth -1.2 wins in 2014. 

It’s possible the Orioles can wait this out and get Trumbo’s price to come down into their range.

Orioles Still Not Ruling Out Wieters Return

The Orioles signed catcher Welington Castillo last week to a one-year, $6 million contract, which carries a $7 million player option for 2018. Castillo will likely walk into 2017 as Baltimore’s starting backstop, and he comes on a relative bargain.

Most assumed Castillo’s signing would mark the end of Matt Wieters‘ time in Baltimore. Wieters, a 2007 first-round pick, has spent his entire career in the Baltimore organization. He never became the superstar many pegged coming out of Georgia Tech but put together a solid 124-game campaign in 2016 after having his previous two years mired by injuries.

The market has nonetheless been slow, with agent Scott Boras acknowledging it’ll likely be January before Wieters finds a contract.

“The clubs that need catching are pretty well-defined,” Boras said, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. “Some are thinking about moving players to make room for him, so the timetable always on catching, I don’t know what it is; it’s always been—I can’t think of one I’ve represented that didn’t sign in January, but they do.”

Given the market, Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported a potential Wieters-Baltimore reunion shouldn’t be ruled out. It wouldn’t make all that much sense on paper. The Orioles already have a solid defensive backup in Caleb Joseph, who some have argued is a better all-around catcher than Castillo. 

The only logical scenario in which Wieters returns is one where he accepts a 50-50 platoon with Castillo on a short-term deal. That’ll likely be a nonstarter for the Boras client, who will want either a long-term deal or a clear starting job.

But the Orioles like late-winter signings, so it’s not entirely out of the question.

Tigers Looking to Move J.D. Martinez

Two years away from potentially hitting the free-agent market, J.D. Martinez has become a hot commodity in trade circles. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reported the Tigers are open to moving Martinez but are having trouble finding teams willing to part with their asking price. Detroit, a team with deep pockets and the ability to pay Martinez long term, is looking for “young, controllable talent” as part of any package.

The asking price is understandable. Martinez has produced 10.8 wins over the last three seasons, per FanGraphs, and still hit .307/.373/.535 with 22 home runs and 68 runs batted in despite missing 42 games in 2016. That absence helped lead to the worst defensive season of his career, but Martinez is a four- or five-win player when he plays even average defense.

There aren’t many teams around baseball that couldn’t use someone like Martinez. The Tigers could use him. That’s why they’ve set the price so high.

But it’s also why they’re going to have trouble finding a suitor until someone gets desperate. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Nestled somewhere between the Hot Stove League’s big-ticket items and bargain bin you’ll find baseball’s biggest values. Superstars they’re not, yet these players provide teams with an excellent return on their investment.

If they were items on a restaurant’s menu, the players we’re talking about would likely be served as part of brunch: “It’s not quite breakfast, not quite lunch, but it comes with a slice of cantaloupe at the end. You don’t get completely what you would at breakfast, but you get a good meal.”

While much of the offseason focus remains on unsigned studs like Edwin Encarnacion and yet-to-be-traded assets like Chicago’s Jose Quintana, teams in the market for a first baseman or starting pitcher would be wise to turn their attention to some of the players on this list.

They may not deliver the same level of production as their more highly touted counterparts, but these players aren’t going to cost a fortune to acquire, either. Of course, values can be found around the diamond, not just on the mound and at first base.

What follows is a look at five of the biggest values that remain available, either as free agents or via trades.

Begin Slideshow

The Tampa Bay Rays don’t have to trade Chris Archer. If they do, they can demand the moon, the stars and a few spare celestial bodies.

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays are seeking an even bigger package for Archer than the one the Boston Red Sox sent to the Chicago White Sox for Chris Sale.

To refresh your memory, that package was headlined by Yoan Moncada, the No. 1 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. It also featured fireballer Michael Kopech (MLB.com’s No. 30 prospect), plus outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe (now the White Sox’s No. 9 prospect) and Victor Diaz, another hard-throwing MiLB arm.

That’s eye-popping, but it’s the going rate for an ace-level starter in his prime with years of affordable control.

That describes Sale. It also describes Archer.

Archer, who turned 28 in September, is six months older than Sale. Sale has accumulated a 16.6 WAR between 2014 and 2016, compared to Archer’s 11.5, by FanGraphs‘ measure.

But while Sale is signed for $38 million over the next three seasons—including a pair of team options—Archer is locked in for just over $39 million for five seasons. Archer’s deal, like Sale’s, includes a pair of team options—for $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021.

Next season, he’s due to make a shade under $5 million. In today’s market, that’s not merely affordable, it’s damn close to highway robbery. Plus, the extra two years of control help make up for any disparity in Sale’s and Archer’s stats.

Here’s the part where we talk about Archer’s 2016 season, which was uneven. In fact, if you glance at his 9-19 record and 4.02 ERA, you could argue he was downright mediocre.

There’s more to it than that, however. Archer struck out 233 in 201.1 innings. His 3.41 xFIP suggested a degree of bad luck. His average fastball velocity of 94.3 mph was virtually identical to his career mark of 94.5.

Most encouragingly, he put up a 3.25 ERA after the All-Star break.

“I think he simplified some things and realized ultimately he had to do a better job of throwing more strikes,” Rays skipper Kevin Cash said, per Topkin. “Whether it’s fastball, slider or changeup, it’s getting it over the plate. A lot of that, once you show a lineup or the first couple hitters that you’re willing to throw strikes, you open up a lot of avenues to get them out.”

He’s not broken, in other words. We’re talking about a guy who made the All-Star team and finished fifth in American League Cy Young Award voting in 2015. A return to form isn’t merely possible—given Archer’s second-half rebound and the lack of health or velocity red flags, it’s probable.

We’ve established he’s a shiny prize worth mortgaging at least a portion of the farm. Who has the prospects, and the need, to blow Tampa Bay away?

The Atlanta Braves have been linked to Archer at least since early November, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. 

It’s possible the Rays would demand shortstop Dansby Swanson, MLB.com’s No. 4 prospect and close to an untouchable asset.

But Atlanta could build a strong offer around another highly rated middle infielder: Ozzie Albies, a 19-year-old switch-hitter and MLB.com’s No. 12 prospect.

Albies hit .292 with 30 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A and has the tools and talent to match or even exceed Swanson’s ceiling.

To approximate what the Red Sox gave up for Sale, the Braves would likely have to part with two of their top pitching prospects. Like, say, southpaw Sean Newcomb (MLB.com’s No. 47 prospect) and right-hander Ian Anderson (MLB.com’s No. 77 prospect).

Toss in another lower-ranked chip with some upside, and you’re looking at an offer comparable to if not greater than the Sale bounty.

It would sting for Atlanta. No doubt fans who want to see the franchise rebuild with a homegrown foundation would balk.

As the Braves prepare to move into their new stadium in 2017, though, Archer would give them the franchise-defining stud they need. 

There are other potential matches. The Los Angeles Dodgers already re-signed Rich Hill to join Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda atop their rotation. But, well, insert the cliche about how you can never have too much pitching.

The Dodgers have a fertile farm headlined by top pitching prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Plus, Archer has connections to Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, from their days together in Tampa Bay.

Heck, the New York Yankees have the No. 1 farm system in baseball, according to Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter, and they need starting pitching. 

They appear committed to their youth movement and holding onto blue chips like outfielder Clint Frazier and shortstop Gleyber Torres. They also could be loath to trade top prospects within the division.

Then again, you never know. They’re the Yankees, after all.

The Rays are under no great pressure to move Archer now. They can hold out for a king’s ransom, and if they don’t get it, they can keep him at least until the trade deadline, when prospective buyers will be even more desperate.

Tampa Bay may choose to trade another starter, including Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted.

There are a lot of ways this could go, and many of them end with Archer remaining in central Florida for another half-season at least.

If and when the Rays let Archer go, it should be for a price that shifts the firmament. Recent bumps aside, he’s that kind of player.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Holiday shopping isn’t limited to citizens, as all 30 Major League Baseball teams continue to scour the market to find trades that will benefit them in 2017 and beyond. 

Just as all of us are doing deep research on whether The Last Guardian or Final Fantasy XV is the better holiday video-game release to purchase, front offices are vigorously debating the best way to approach things with a free-agent investment or deal will make the most impact. 

For the purposes of this discussion, let’s operate under the assumption deals will be the order of the day because they are often more interesting to dissect since two teams, in theory, stand to benefit from a trade. 

Dodgers Opening Path to Dozier

No team best exemplifies the fickle nature of offseason dealing than the Los Angeles Dodgers, who may be changing their tune about one of their best prospects in an effort to upgrade the MLB roster. 

Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the Dodgers are now showing a “willingness” to include right-handed pitcher Jose De Leon in a trade for Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. 

This report comes two days after ESPN’s Doug Padilla reported the Dodgers were reluctant to build a package around De Leon for Dozier. 

De Leon was rated as the No. 33 prospect in baseball by MLB.com last season, with this glowing scouting report:

De Leon’s stuff significantly improved in pro ball after he upgraded his conditioning and mechanics. He works at 92-94 mph and can reach 96 mph with his fastball, which has riding life. De Leon’s changeup progressed so much in 2015 that it has become his best secondary pitch, and he also has a low-80s slider that’s effective.

De Leon made a brief appearance in the big leagues last season, posting a 6.35 ERA with 15 strikeouts and seven walks in 17 innings. 

Considering how bad the Twins pitching staff was in 2016, including getting the sixth-fewest innings (875.1) from their starters, it’s no wonder why they would be pursuing young, cost-controlled starters if they are going to deal Dozier. 

The Dodgers are in an interesting position, especially with their young pitchers. They are going to need a lot of depth since they will start 2017 with injury-prone starters Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Alex Wood penciled into the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. 

But they are also not in a position to wait for those young starters, like De Leon, to develop in the big leagues with a roster capable of making a deep playoff run. The biggest hole among their position players is at second base, which is currently unoccupied with Chase Utley being a free agent. 

Dozier would certainly be an upgrade over anything the Dodgers got at the position in 2016. He won’t hit 42 home runs, which was 14 more than he ever hit in a season, again. But even if he reverts back to his 2014 form with a .242/.345/.416 slash line with 23 home runs, that’s a win for them because he’s eight years younger than Utley and under contract through 2018. 

Rockies’ Blackmon Plan

The Colorado Rockies have had one of the most interesting offseasons to date, though not in ways that make them strong playoff contenders.

Ian Desmond had a fantastic first half in 2016 before reverting back to his 2015 self with a .237/.283/.347 line after the All-Star break, yet the Rockies decided to guarantee him five years and give up the No. 11 draft pick to do so. 

The Rockies followed that up by signing 31-year-old reliever Mike Dunn, who has a 3.54 career ERA and 1.37 WHIP, to a three-year deal that was announced on Thursday. 

One potential move that seemed like a foregone conclusion for the Rockies was a trade involving Charlie Blackmon, though that doesn’t seem likely given what they are asking in return. 

Per ESPN’s Jayson Stark, rival teams are less sure about Blackmon getting dealt because they will only do it if they receive “an Adam Eaton type deal.”

The Washington Nationals acquired Eaton from the Chicago White Sox for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning. 

In case you are wondering what kind of package that is, MLB.com ranked Giolito as the No. 3 prospect in baseball, Lopez as the No. 38 prospect and Dunning was Washington’s No. 6 prospect. 

There are two key differences between Eaton and Blackmon, which make a comparable deal seem unlikely. The first—and most obvious—is contract status.

Eaton will make a total of $38.4 million on his current deal that runs through 2021, per Spotrac. Blackmon has just two more years of team control before he can become a free agent. 

The other major difference is Blackmon has played his entire career in Colorado, which has played a substantial role inflating his numbers since his MLB debut in 2011.

If teams could guarantee they were getting the Coors Field version of Blackmon, then his two years of control wouldn’t be as big of an issue in giving up a huge return. But Colorado has a knack for inflating numbers for pedestrian hitters, which is why the Rockies shouldn’t overplay their hand. 

Rays House of Pitchers

The Tampa Bay Rays are constantly exploring ways to improve their roster, mostly out of necessity because there is always a very-limited amount of money they can spend on talent, which is why rumblings of them dealing a starter have basically been non-stop for a year. 

Passan reported on Dec. 6 the Rays were “almost certain to deal a starter,” with Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb generating strong interest. 

However, there’s likely a reason nearly two weeks have passed with no deals involving Rays pitchers. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported on Dec. 10 they are “are seeking massive returns on just about everybody asked about.”

It’s certainly a reasonable position for the Rays to take. The starting-pitching market for free agents is dreadful, with Hill being the best available option before he re-signed with the Dodgers. 

Smyly is coming off a down year in 2016 with a 4.88 ERA in 175.1 innings, but he’s a left-hander under team control for two more seasons and has a 3.74 career ERA with 552 strikeouts in 570.1 innings since 2012. 

Cobb is a more interesting case because last year doesn’t really count. He returned on September 2 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014, so his 8.59 ERA in 22 innings comes with a huge asterisk. 

In 2013-14, Cobb was terrific with a 2.82 ERA with 283 strikeouts and just 262 hits allowed in 309.2 innings. He only has one more year of control left, leaving the Rays between a rock and a hard place.

On one hand, moving Cobb now could net a better return since a team acquiring him would receive a full year of starts from him. And on the chance his elbow flares up on him again, the Rays don’t have to worry about it. 

On the other hand, supposing Cobb puts together a strong first half, he could end up being one of the most attractive trade chips in July and get several contenders seeking another starter in a bidding war. 

It’s not an ideal situation for the Rays to be in, but they have proven in the past with players like Matt Moore they won’t hesitate to make a deal when they get an offer to their liking. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I hate to break it to the following MLB teams, but, um, well…it may be too late for them to save their best-laid plans for the winter.

In fairness, the hot stove season isn’t a walk in the park. It’s more like a stroll through a minefield. Things don’t always go as planned even for teams that carefully chart their courses.

We’re here to talk about four such teams. Their situations are largely different, but what they have in common is they’re now left to pick up the pieces from grand offseason plans that have fizzled. Some are in deeper trouble than others, such as the…

Miami Marlins

The Marlins were the little engine that could in 2016, staying in second place in the National League East until late August. But they started slipping in September and then experienced an unthinkable tragedy when ace pitcher Jose Fernandez died in a boating accident.

Mourning came first, but the Marlins were eventually going to have to address what was a mediocre starting rotation even despite Fernandez’s efforts. That put them in a bind with a free-agent market devoid of top-of-the-rotation talent.

Thus, the Marlins settled for a couple of depth signings with Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke. Per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, their plan to get around their lack of starting talent was to instead filter talent into their bullpen. They wanted a “super pen.”

Not a bad idea! The Marlins bullpen was powerful and effective in 2016, averaging an NL-best 94.0 mph in fastball velocity with a solid 3.63 ERA. If they could add Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, they would indeed have a super pen that could downplay their weak starting rotation.

Well, nobody can say they didn’t try.

Heyman reported the Marlins were willing to go above $80 million to sign Chapman, but he took $86 million from the New York Yankees instead. According to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, the Marlins offered Jansen more than the $80 million he accepted from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Like that, the Marlins whiffed on the guys who could have granted their wish. Plan B is looking less audacious.

The Marlins have signed Junichi Tazawa, who is perfectly serviceable but no more than that. Frisaro reported they’ve also signed Brad Ziegler, who is better but still not the shutdown reliever Miami desires.

The only way the Marlins can get back on that path is by turning to the trade market, where big targets like Zach Britton and David Robertson reside. But this is unrealistic. With a farm system that Baseball America ranked at No. 29 going into 2016, the Marlins are not well off with prospects. Also, it’s not good for their leverage that the word is out how badly they want an ace closer.

The Marlins might have had a shot at upsetting the 2017 NL East race if they’d gotten their super pen. But now whatever shot they have will be of the long variety. The Marlins weren’t better than the Washington Nationals or New York Mets in 2016, and they haven’t gotten better this winter.

But speaking of teams in the NL East with closer trouble…

Washington Nationals

Mind you, the Nationals aren’t quite in the same boat as the Marlins. They began the winter in a better place after winning 95 games and the NL East in 2016. They’ve also advanced forward. Despite some bellyaching to the contrary, their trade for Adam Eaton is just fine.

And yet Washington’s offseason is just as easily defined by its misses as by that one hit.

At one point, Heyman reported it had a “clear lead” in the sweepstakes for Chris Sale before he went to the Boston Red Sox. Per Heyman, it also made a run at Andrew McCutchen that didn’t pan out.

By that point, the Nationals had already missed out on re-signing Mark Melancon to fill their closer hole. According to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, that prompted a run at Wade Davis. They then turned to Jansen after the Chicago Cubs traded for Davis. According to Sherman, he turned down more money to return to the Dodgers.

The good news despite all this is that a closer is all the Nationals need.

Getting Eaton instead of McCutchen filled their center field vacancy. Getting Sale would have been nice, but a rotation that posted a 3.60 ERA in 2016 didn’t need him. Also not to be forgotten is their decision to trade for a healthy Derek Norris rather than re-sign an injured Wilson Ramos to play catcher. As is, the Nationals are easily projected to win the 2017 NL East race at FanGraphs.

But while another NL East title would be nice, it’s a World Series the Nationals are after. And if recent Octobers have made anything clear, it’s that nothing helps translate regular-season success to postseason success quite like a deep and talented bullpen.

With only Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen possessing reliable arms, the Nationals don’t have one of those. Their best options for fixing that now reside on the trade market, where they figure to encounter a problem referenced above: a lack of leverage relating to their desperation being out in the open.

What’s most likely to happen is the Nationals going into 2017 without a true closer and winging it. Risky, but at least that sounds better than the situation in Pittsburgh…

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates fell hard from grace in 2016, winning 20 fewer games than they did in 2015. Starting pitching that was normally good went bad, and McCutchen went from an MVP-caliber player to a replacement-level player.

It sure seemed like the Pirates were committed to solving the latter issue by trading McCutchen before his value can sink any further. A deal with the Nationals seemed inevitable during the winter meetings.

That fell through, and it’s prompted the club to start singing a different tune.

“Our intent coming in here was to have Andrew McCutchen in our lineup going forward. No one changed that,” Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said, via Adam Berry of MLB.com. “It’s unlikely that someone changes that going forward. We’re not going to close the door, but we’re not going to be making calls.”

If the latest from Heyman is any indication, the Pirates may indeed be taking a hardline stance on not wanting to force a trade:

With proper leverage, the Pirates might find a team willing to grant their wish. But with the Nationals filling their center field need with Eaton and the Texas Rangers filling theirs by re-signing Carlos Gomez, it doesn’t help their cause that the two best fits for McCutchen are now accounted for.

As for how McCutchen is holding up, it seems all the rumors put a chip on the former MVP’s shoulder.

“I didn’t like almost being traded,” he said Dec. 10, via Pirates Breakdown. “I don’t know anything outside of Pittsburgh. It’s very tough. It can be a part of the game.”

There’s a bridge to be repaired here. What could make that harder is that, per Heyman, the Pirates also want to discuss moving McCutchen out of center field and into a corner outfield spot. A sound idea, but awkward timing.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have done nothing to shore up their starting pitching woes.

Their best hope is to re-sign Ivan Nova, but even he could be outside their price range. MLB Trade Rumors projected him to earn $52 million this winter. That’s $13 million more than the Pirates have ever paid a free agent.

The Pirates could dip into their considerable prospect depth to try to make a splash on the trade market. But after it took a huge haul for the Red Sox to get Sale, it would probably take everything the Pirates had to land Jose Quintana or Chris Archer.

As if the Pirates needed another headache, third baseman Jung Ho Kang was recently arrested for DUI and is only a few months removed from a sexual assault allegation. Hint: Go buy stock in aspirin.

From rough seas in the Steel City, there ain’t no mountain high enough to keep us from diving into the weird times in Motown…

Detroit Tigers

Rather than give way to speculation the Tigers would break up after a second straight postseason-less year in 2016, GM Al Avila seemed to promise early in the winter they would.

“We want to get younger. We want to get leaner. We want to run the organization without having to go over our means,” Avila said in November to MLB.com’s Jason Beck. “We want to stay competitive, but at the same time, this organization has been working way above its means for some time.”

Like that, it was easy to see all Detroit’s chips on the table. Justin Verlander was an option for starting pitcher-needy teams. Ian Kinsler was an asset on the second base market. Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez and Justin Upton could be marketed to teams in need of power.

Several weeks later, though, they’re all still there. And likely for good.

Due to his age and the size of his contract, Verlander will not yield the assets Sale did for the White Sox. The open market being loaded with sluggers has seemingly crushed the demand for Detroit’s sluggers. Kinsler has an obvious fit with the Dodgers, but his no-trade clause is a big hurdle in the way of a deal.

This puts the Tigers in a position to stay the course for 2017. With a good chunk of their core already past the age of 30, it’ll basically be a last hurrah.

Trouble is, the Tigers don’t project to be very good. FanGraphs has them down for 83 wins, putting them well short of the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central power structure.

Beyond merely being another disappointment, 2017 also has the capacity to set the Tigers’ future back by a few years. If all the above players regress from their 2016 performances, their trade value will slide accordingly. Whereas the Tigers might have been able to get talent for them now, they may only be able to dump their salaries later. That would be no help to a farm system that needs it.

Assuming they remain open for business, there’s still time for the Tigers to deal some of their veterans and take their first step toward a new era. But it seems more likely that step will not occur, pushing that new era even further into the realm of abstraction.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s a story as old as Hollywood itself: A talented performer from the Midwest packs his or her bags and heads to Southern California to seek stardom.

If the Los Angeles Dodgers acquire Brian Dozier from the Minnesota Twins, that yarn could unspool on the MLB stage next season.

First, the latest rumor, courtesy of Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan:

We’ve heard Dozier-to-L.A. rumblings all offseason—it’s a marriage that makes sense, as Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer outlined.

Including Jose De Leon—the No. 6 right-handed pitching prospect in baseball, per MLB.com—could accelerate talks, especially if Los Angeles adds high-upside ancillary pieces. 

It’s speculation, but let’s assume a swap is consummated before the spring thaw and Dozier dons blue in 2017.

If that happens, it could propel the 29-year-old second baseman into the big league firmament.

It’s not as if Dozier is invisible now. He was an All-Star in 2015 and went off last season, setting career highs in home runs (42), RBI (99) and OPS (.886).

Let’s face it, though: The Twins are the Twins. They toil in a small market and haven’t made the playoffs since 2010, two years before Dozier debuted.

In September, Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth outlined how the Twins’ futility diminished Dozier’s accomplishments:

Unfortunately, Dozier’s 2016, in which he could eclipse Davey Johnson’s 1973 record for home runs by a second baseman (43) and might very well become just the 13th player in history to hit 30 second-half homers, is the latest and most highly visible example of the lost season — a year extraordinary in individual significance but, sadly, ineffectual in its standings significance. 

Granted, Minnesota has produced its share of stars, from Rod Carew to Kirby Puckett.

Los Angeles, however, is where glitz meets glam. The Dodgers are baseball’s biggest spenders and, aside from the New York Yankees, arguably MLB’s most nationally and internationally visible franchise. 

They’re also good. After laying down almost $200 million to bring back left-hander Rich Hill, closer Kenley Jansen and third baseman Justin Turner, the Dodgers are positioned to reach the postseason for the fifth consecutive year. 

There’s no guarantee with the archrival San Francisco Giants and retooled Colorado Rockies lurking in the NL West. Netting Dozier, though, could push L.A. over the hump into full-fledged front-runner status. 

He’d add much-needed right-handed thump to the Dodgers’ lefty-heavy lineup and join a strong offensive core that includes Turner, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager.

It’s possible Dozier’s numbers could dip at Chavez Ravine. Dodger Stadium was the second-least hitter-friendly yard in the game last season, according to ESPN’s Park Factors statistic, while Minnesota’s Target Field checked in at No. 9.

Dozier, however, has even career home/road splits, which suggests his bat plays anywhere.

Steamer projects a notable decline in home run production from Dozier in 2017, from 42 to 27, per FanGraphs. Something in the neighborhood of 30 homers from the second base position, though, would still make him a top-tier player. Add the L.A. publicity bump, and we’re talking another All-Star nod and notoriety aplenty.

How is Dozier handling the chatter?

“It can get overwhelming at times,” he said, per USA Today‘s Gabe Lacques. “I’m not going to sit here and lie to you and not look at the online [trade] stuff, because I do. It’s my career; you want to see how other teams value you, evaluate you and what the Twins think of you.”

If he thinks this is overwhelming, wait till he gets a load of the SoCal spotlight. If he gets a load of it, that is. 

Dozier can see past the glare. He’s already one of the game’s top second basemen. Now, he has a chance to pack his bags and aim even higher.

Take heed, Tinseltown—it could be one heck of a story.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The big story coming into Major League Baseball’s offseason was how teams would play the trade market, because this year’s crop of free agents wasn’t particularly impressive. 

This has already played out in a huge way with the Chicago White Sox officially entering rebuilding mode by trading Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox and Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals in the span of 24 hours. 

Despite those moves, there are still deals to be made. It always comes down to finding one team willing to pay the price another team has established. The Red Sox and Nationals have aggressive general managers with teams in win-now mode. 

Few teams operate like that for various reasons, but the allure of winning a championship now or getting key pieces to do it in the future makes for interesting points of discussion. 

Dozier Still on Dodgers’ Radar

The Los Angeles Dodgers answered their two biggest free-agent question marks with Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reporting Kenley Jansen agreed to a five-year, $80 million deal and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reporting third baseman Justin Turner agreed to a four-year, $64 million deal. 

Those deals, while certainly notable, also represent the Dodgers’ status quo. They have been part of postseason heartbreaks each of the previous two years against the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs. 

Now, the real test for Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman will be to find missing pieces to get his team over that hump and into the World Series for the first time since 1988. 

Per ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla, the Dodgers are still showing interest in trading for Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. 

However, Padilla did note a potential deal for Dozier would likely require the Dodgers to part with star pitching prospect Jose De Leon and that they “are reluctant to part with” him. 

Second base remains an alarming black hole for the Dodgers right now. Chase Utley was a good platoon player in 2016, hitting .273/.343/.425 against right-handed pitching and just .154/.206/.264 against lefties.

Utley’s not a long-term solution. He turns 38 on Friday but might end up being the default solution for the team if it can’t figure out a possible trade. 

It makes sense for the Twins to try trading Dozier now when his value is never going to be higher. He’s coming off a career year in which he hit 42 home runs and signed for a total of $15 million through 2018, per Baseball-Reference.com.

The Dodgers learned last year how valuable depth is after tying a dubious MLB record with 27 players spending time on the disabled list.

It becomes harder to make a trade, which will likely require at least two high-quality assets going back to Minnesota in return, but the Dodgers have been so close to the World Series over the last four years. At some point, being overaggressive to upgrade a position of desperate need makes sense. 

Friedman is not one to overreact to what’s happening with teams around him, though I never would have expected him to give a reliever five years on a contract before Jansen proved me wrong. 

Gray’s Limited Market

Any hopes the Oakland Athletics might have had about building a blockbuster trade package around starting pitcher Sonny Gray appear to be dashed, at least so far this offseason. 

Per Rosenthal, Gray is generating “little interest” from around the league. 

It’s certainly not hard to figure out why Gray’s market would be limited.

He spent time on the disabled list last season, making just 22 starts (his fewest in three full MLB seasons) and posted career-worst marks in ERA (5.69), WHIP (1.496), hits allowed per nine innings (10.2), home runs allowed per nine innings (1.4), strikeouts per nine innings (7.2), strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.24) and wins above replacement (-0.5), per Baseball-Reference.com. 

Despite those numbers, Gray figures to get a substantial raise in 2017, the first year he’s eligible for arbitration. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors estimates the 27-year-old will make $3.7 million. 

Salary isn’t going to be an issue holding teams back from acquiring Gray. It’s just hard to figure out what kind of pitcher he will be moving forward. 

If the A’s tried to trade Gray last offseason, right after he finished third in the American League Cy Young voting, they could have asked for a package fairly close to what the White Sox received for Chris Sale because he’s under team control through 2019. 

Unfortunately, Gray doesn’t look the part of a No. 1 starter. He’s listed at 5’10” and 190 pounds on the A’s official website. Given his small stature, teams can look at his breakdown in 2016 as an indication the heavy workload from the previous two seasons caught up to him. 

The A’s don’t have to be in a rush to trade Gray, especially with his value at its lowest point. Keeping him to start 2017 while hoping he can re-establish himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter in order to trade him in July or next offseason makes sense for the franchise. 

The Bruce Dilemma

The New York Mets hoped when they acquired Jay Bruce in July that he would provide a similar spark to what they received from Yoenis Cespedes the previous year. 

Instead, Bruce floundered in 50 games with the Mets. He hit .219/.294/.391 in 169 at-bats with the team and is scheduled to earn $13 million in 2017, per Spotrac. 

The Mets are in a difficult spot right now with too many outfielders, particularly in corner spots, for too few spots. Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto are all in the mix. 

Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets would prefer to deal Bruce instead of Granderson. 

Marc Carig of Newsday noted the Mets were “optimistic” about their chances of finding a taker for Bruce at the winter meetings, only to leave Washington D.C. with the same logjam they had when they arrived. 

Given Bruce’s high salary and mediocre performance over the last three seasons, which has been worth a total of 0.2 FanGraphs‘ wins above replacement, the market won’t be clamoring for that kind of player. 

Cespedes will likely end up starting the year in center field, despite FanGraphs noting he cost the Mets seven runs in less than 500 innings at the position last season, because the team doesn’t have anyone else for the position. 

Juan Lagares is a tremendous defensive center fielder, but no team can support a .298 career-on base percentage from the position. 

Conforto needs to start playing regularly, or else the Mets run the risk of completely running off one of their best young players. Granderson is going to play because he’s a better option than Bruce at this point. 

It’s not a good situation the Mets have put themselves in, though they may not have a way out of it unless they decide to trade a player like Granderson or Conforto, both of whom will be more intriguing to teams in search of outfield help. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com