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The Boston Red Sox enter Tuesday with a 12-14 record and a -15 run differential, tied for second worst in the American League. It’s a far cry from where the defending World Series champions expected to be at the end of April.

What can the Red Sox do to get back in first place instead of battling to stay out of the cellar?

While the answer may not be satisfying to many, it’s a fairly simple answer: Stay patient.

After decades of following, learning and writing baseball, two key takeaways this writer can assure nervous Red Sox fans of is: April is far too early to make drastic changes, and regression to the mean will, nine times out of 10, solve the problem.

Let’s look at three key areas in which the Red Sox have struggled, and how patience will end up being the single biggest solution to alleviating these problems.

Lack of Power

While the meat of the order in David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are driving the ball with authority, the Red Sox lack the power throughout the lineup that the 2013 group enjoyed. A lot of that can be traced back to the underperforming power numbers of A.J. Pierzynski and Xander Bogaerts.

Signed to fill the void left by departing catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski’s calling card on offense is his power. 

The 37-year-old reached double digits in home runs in nine of his 13 seasons with at least 100 games played—and two of these seasons with single-digit homers were his first two seasons of full-time play.

Unfortunately, Pierzynski has yet to deliver on those grounds. Entering 2014, Pierzynski’s career slugging percentage (SLG) was .428 with an isolated power (ISO) of .145. Isolated Power, as Baseball Prospectus explains, “is a measure of a hitter’s raw power, in terms of extra bases per [at-bat].” \

So far with the Red Sox, his SLG is .377 with an ISO of .116 (see table below).

Before the weekend series, in which Pierzynski collected a home run on Saturday and double on Friday, his SLG was .355. The fact that his slugging percentage increased .22 points after only three games is indicative of how early it is. 

When it comes to sample such as these, one needs a much longer timeframe before anything of substance can be derived from them. In the early going, a slump can skew numbers dramatically, while just one good series good game—like Pierzynski’s weekend output—can make a significant difference. Come August, a good or bad game will barely register in season statistics.

Beware of small sample sizes, as they can cause one to jump to inaccurate conclusions.

It’s more likely than not that by the end of the year Pierzynski’s power production will mirror that of his career. This is where regression (or “trending back”) to the mean comes into play. Far more often than not, skewed numbers that look out of place for a player are simply outliers—a random variation that a regression to the mean will fix. Pierzynski’s poor power numbers to start the year will likely regress to his career power figures.

The same can be said of rookie shortstop Xander Bogaerts. While the 21-year-old won’t smash 30 home runs like it appears he can do one day, per the Telegram & Gazette, expecting him to stay under a .400 SLG the entire season is unlikely. Bogaerts’ minor-league SLG is .489.

For an exercise in small sample sizes, consider Bogaerts’ SLG in 2013, when he played 18 regular-season games with the Sox. That figure came in at .364, while his postseason mark in 12 games played was .481.

Similarly, his sample of 24 games played so far in 2014 is far too small to tell us anything about Bogaerts’ true expected power production over the 2014 season. Like Pierzynski, we can see that just one game can make a big difference early on. Before Sunday, Bogaerts’ SLG was .373. After a two-hit game against the Blue Jays in which he rapped a double, it’s all the way up to .391.

Beware of small sample sizes.

The Sox can count on more than the expected improvement of Pierzynski and Bogaerts’ power. On Friday, the Red Sox welcomed back Will Middlebrooks, the Sox’s power-hitting third baseman who played just four games before going on the disabled list. With a career slugging percentage of .469, that will be a dramatic improvement over the punchless Jonathan Herrera and Brock Holt.

Defensive Woes

Boston has also struggled when it comes to defense. In 2013, the club enjoyed the fruits of Jacoby Ellsbury in center and Shane Victorino in right to track down many a fly ball. Stephen Drew was steady at shortstop while Mike Napoli looked like a Gold Glove candidate at first base.

Fast-forward a year later and the fielding has been so poor it’s fast becoming a storyline.

But again, small sample sizes and regression to the mean come into play here.

Take Bogaerts, for example. He ranks as one of the worst shortstops when it comes to defense, as Fangraphs’ leaderboard shows, with a -1.8 “Defense” mark. Last year, in just as small a sample size as 2014, Bogaerts turned in an +0.2 mark. The takeaway is that it’s yet to be determined just how good or bad Bogaerts’ defense will be. Relying on April’s games to draw conclusions is inadvisable.

Napoli, as mentioned, was a Gold Glove candidate last season. His Ultimate Zone Rating over 150 games was 13.3, the best in baseball. This year, it’s at 0.3. What’s the better bet: Napoli suddenly being barely above average at first base, or small sample size flaring up?

We can bet on Napoli regressing back to the mean and being an above-average first baseman before the year is out. It doesn’t mean it is a lock to happen, but it’s more of a lock than expecting Napoli‘s April numbers to continue.

The last poor fielder to discuss is Grady Sizemore.

Sizemore’s center field defense is disastrous, as his fielding numbers bear out. While he was once a strong defender, age and injuries have robbed him of the ability to play center. It has been apparent just how poor of a defender Sizemore has become just by watching the games.

Sizemore won’t be asked to handle center field anymore, as that job has been turned over to Jackie Bradley, Jr. for good. That relegates Sizemore to left field, where his poor defense can be hidden, especially with the Green Monster looming at Fenway Park. That move alone should boost the Red Sox’s defense dramatically.

Poor Pitching

The last segment of the Red Sox’s performance is pitching. While the team has been enjoying Jon Lester’s starts, the same can’t be said of Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront.

Buchholz looked to be a Cy Young contender last season before getting injured. This year, he’s one of the worst pitchers in the game with a 6.66 ERA.

Felix Doubront struggled through parts of 2013 but flashed dominance at times. He has yet to do so in 2014 with a 6.00 ERA.

As I’ve tried to hammer home throughout this piece, regression to the mean is likely with both pitchers. Fortunately, there’s a metric that can help us figure out what to expect moving forward.

Buchholz and Doubront will be hard-pressed to finish the season with ERAs above 6.00. Even if they aren’t the pitchers they once were, their talent is too great for that.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a figure scaled to ERA that adjusts for park factors and luck, according to Fangraphs. While Buchholz has been far from elite this year, his FIP mark is 4.45. Once you adjust for luck on home runs, that number dips to a 3.97 xFIP.

The takeaway here is that Buchholz has been dramatically unlucky to post a 6.66 figure; Account for elements beyond Buchholz’s control, and he should have a 3.97 ERA on the season. One should feel much better about the right-hander’s odds to emerge again as a front-of-the-rotation starter after seeing these figures.

Doubront has a similar tale to tell. His FIP is 4.88 with an xFIP of 4.90. So while Doubront still hasn’t pitched well according to FIP, his 6.00 is just over a full run higher than it should be.

These numbers show what one can expect from the two pitchers assuming normal regression to the mean. Over time, these numbers should trend back to what FIP and xFIP suggest, and what their true talent level suggests.

How about the bullpen? Two major FIP outliers are Edward Mujica and Craig Breslow. Last season, Mujica saved 37 games while Breslow’s career ERA is 2.89. So far this year, their ERAs are abnormally high. Over time, the performances of these relievers will trend back to normalcy. Besides, the bullpen is the biggest component of a team that is subject to variation and luck, and Boston has the entire season in which to hit upon the right combination.

Take 2013, for example. Brandon Workman ended up being one of the most important relievers in October for Boston … he didn’t make his season debut until July 10.

So, What’s the Takeaway?

Small sample sizes. Regression to the mean. These are two of the overarching themes throughout this piece that we’ve discussed. From power to defense to pitching, we find elements that suggest performances to date can be expected to improve, all by simply waiting things out.

Patience.

Patience is the key to fixing the Red Sox’s biggest problems early in 2014. It may not be an answer you want to hear. Due to the fact the Red Sox’s record sat at 0-0 entering the year, their 12-14 record sticks out like a sore thumb.

But all teams, even elite ones, go through these ebbs and flows. If the Red Sox were 52-37 in July and then went on a 12-14 streak, it would be overlooked. But since the 12-14 record comes at the start of the year, the record sticks out like a sore thumb.

If the Red Sox want to get back to October baseball, its best bet is simply stay the course. Some players will start playing better. Others will play worse. Once the team has a few months to evaluate how well players are performing, then more drastic measures can be taken.

Until then, Boston needs to stay patient.

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The Boston Red Sox have begun 2014 with Felix Doubront as the No. 3 starter in their rotation.  After holding down the No. 5 spot the past two seasons, the 26-year-old is now entering his third full year in the big leagues.  Is the talented lefty finally ready to make the most of his potential?

In 2012, Doubront posted an ERA of 4.86, and last season, he trimmed that down by over half a run to 4.32.  A similar improvement this year could place him among the more successful starting pitchers in the American League.

Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston recently wrote the following about Doubront:

The left-hander came to camp in far better shape than a year ago, and may be on the cusp, at age 26, of a breakout season. He made some mechanical adjustments to tighten his delivery, and if he develops some greater consistency in his fastball command, he could be a big winner.

Doubront himself shares a similar outlook, via Mass Live’s Jason Mastrodonato:

“This is a big year for me. I know that and I went into the offseason thinking that. I have to be strong, mentally and physically and try to be healthy the whole year. You never know what’s going to happen, but you have to be prepared.”

However, there is an argument to be made that in Doubront‘s case it may actually be very easy to predict what is going to happen in 2014.  With the exception of his ERA, Doubront has put up nearly identical numbers in each of the last two seasons:

Doubront‘s first start this year fell very much in line with what one might expect from looking at the above statistics.  On April 3 in Baltimore, he allowed six hits, a walk and three earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched.  His performance was nothing to write home about, but on that day, it was good enough to earn the victory.

Tuesday, Doubront will take the mound for the second time this season, facing the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park.  A potent lineup that features multiple left-handed hitters, Doubront could easily shut them down, or get lit up—but chances are he’ll give us something somewhere in between.

Even if Doubront doesn’t make any major strides in 2014, in a rotation featuring veterans Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy, another campaign as a serviceable No. 5 starter should suit the Red Sox just fine.

Statistics courtesy of RedSox.com.

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The Boston Red Sox are getting closer to starting the defense of their World Series title when they begin regular season play on March 31 against the Baltimore Orioles.

Some questions about the roster have been answered during their time in Fort Myers, Fla. However, new ones have appeared due to certain performances, and others still need to be figured out.

A few players have taken full advantage of their opportunity this spring, while others aren’t getting the results they were hoping for. Unfortunately, strong performances from some in Red Sox camp won’t end with a spot on the Opening Day roster.

With the 2014 season-opener less than a week away, let’s take a look at some of Boston’s biggest winners and losers from this spring.

All player statistics sourced from RedSox.com, unless otherwise noted.

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In 2013, the Boston Red Sox turned from a last-place franchise into a World Series champion.

This sort of transformation, while rare and difficult, was the direct result of a number of key moves from general manager Ben Cherington—moves that combined incumbent stars with the right type of free agents to solidify what would be a championship team.

Looking forward to 2014, Boston will once more rely upon some magic.

This time, instead of focusing heavily on free-agent acquisitions, a number of young and talented rookie prospects will likely be asked to fill the voids left by certain players who are no longer with the team—or at least pending departure as is the case with shortstop Stephen Drew.

Along with Drew, Boston lost a number of the players that helped it win its third World Series in the last nine seasons.  Gone is center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury along with catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The Red Sox major free-agent acquisition to address these needs was catcher A.J. Pierzynski.  Other acquisitions landed bullpen depth as well as the needed retaining of first baseman Mike Napoli.

These losses open up the door for minor league and rookie prospects to have a shot at making the Red Sox’s Opening Day roster.

For the purposes of this article, we shall examine the top five Red Sox prospects and determine their chances of making the Opening Day roster.  This author shall use the rankings provided by Alex Speier of WEEI for Baseball America.

The report tells us much of what we already know—Boston has a very deep farm system and should be in excellent shape in coming years.  Yet, given the cast of incumbent Red Sox starters, many of these players will not have an impact in 2014, which leaves the door open for only a few guys to make the roster.

Some, like Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., have an excellent chance given the opportunity.  Others may have to wait their turn.

In any case, let us evaluate these top five prospects and determine whether or not we will see them at the start of the 2014 season.

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Last winter, the Boston Red Sox molded a 93-loss disaster into a 97-win juggernaut through an offseason of wise, shrewd and visionary free-agent signings. According to Alex Speier of WEEI.com, team president Larry Lucchino is hoping for a sequel when the Red Sox go about filling out their roster in the aftermath of a World Series championship:

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, lightning doesn’t strike twice. By capitalizing on undervalued assets, creating a template for short-term, low-risk deals with midtier free agents and attacking free agency in the last year before baseball’s new, lucrative media deal put $20-25 million in the pocket of each owner, Boston cornered a market that was wide open.

This winter, the copycats will be in abundance, but supply and demand won’t let any team, including the Red Sox, repeat the same strategy en route to a franchise-changing offseason.

In New York, the Mets have posted five consecutive losing seasons, are battling budget concerns and come across unwilling to hand out $100 million deals. Of all the teams looking to spend and improve this winter, the Mets seemed most likely to go about the Red Sox model.

Thus far, they’ve found the climate, per the New York Daily News, of free-agent prices to be above and beyond what they are prepared to spend. It’s likely that every other team attempting the 2013 Red Sox model will soon be confronted with the same realization.  

Last year was a perfect storm for Boston. The free-agent class, dollars spent and undervalued assets fell right in line with the needs on the Red Sox roster. According to Yahoo! Sports’ free-agent rankings, Boston reeled in seven of the top 50 free agents on the market last winter for less than $100 million.

That number didn’t just represent the price paid out to Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes in 2013; it was the total amount spent to secure their services for 11 combined seasons. In other words, Boston brought in the sextet for less than $10 million per season.  

To put that into perspective, Jhonny Peralta, the 18th-ranked player on Yahoo! Sports’ current free-agent rankings, just received a four-year, $52 million contract from the St. Louis Cardinals. Last winter, Dempster was rated 17th by Yahoo! when garnering half that total amount from Boston.

Not only are teams trying to copy the Red Sox model, but money in the game is also on the rise. In September, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote a prescient column on this subject, imagining baseball’s middle class earning much more money this winter and beyond. Per Sherman’s reporting:

There are a lot of teams with available cash — more now with the new national TV contract putting an additional $20-million to-$25 million annually in each team’s coffers beginning in 2014 — and many of those clubs are indicating they are going to shun Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the market and, well, diversify the portfolio. Which means the middle class is about to become the upper-middle class as the good-to-very good free agents are going to get bid up by multiple teams.

The following chart shows the free-agent stars with corresponding rankings this winter to the players signed by Boston last winter. As you can see and imagine, the idea of those seven players, or similar stars, signing for a grand sum of less than 11 years or $99 million is absurd. 

In fact, with Byrd already inked to a $16 million deal in Philadelphia, Beltran, Cruz and Nolasco would have to combine for less than $83 million in total contract value to give credence to a team pulling off a 2013 Red Sox free-agent heist. 

Boston is wise to attempt an offseason model similar to last year. Short-term deals are generally much, much more palatable for both general manager and ownership. If a decision is wrong, it won’t cripple the franchise for years. 

While it’s smart to try, the same results are nearly impossible to garner this time around. Beyond the fact that the middle class of players is poised to cash in, more teams are looking to duplicate the successful approach. This time, the 2014 Shane Victorino might cost $55 million, not $39 million. 

Furthermore, even if the Red Sox find a few players who perfectly fit the model established last year, luck likely won’t be on their side again. When general manager Ben Cherington inked Koji Uehara, the 38th-ranked free-agent on the market, few could have imagined one of the greatest relief pitching seasons in baseball history emerging from the move.

This time around, Lance Berkman is the No. 38 player on Yahoo! Sports’ free-agent list. If he lands in Boston on a short-term deal, posts one of the greatest hitting seasons in history and leads the Red Sox to another World Series, it will be time to admit that Boston truly has its strategy perfected.

Until then, call it what it was: The perfect offseason plan for the perfect offseason.  

Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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While there are still two-and-a-half months left in the 2013 regular season, it is not too early to look ahead to what the Boston Red Sox‘s starting nine will look like on Opening Day next season.

There will be some new faces, but many of the options the Red Sox have are already signed to long-term deals or are young, athletic players who could make a huge difference in the playoff race.

Let’s see who is in the starting lineup come Opening Day for 2014.

All stats via ESPN.com and Baseball Reference as of Aug. 19.

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The Boston Red Sox may have lost eight of their last 10 games, but with a 22-16 record, thety only trail the New York Yankees by two games and the Baltimore Orioles by one game in the AL East.

With a quarter of the season in the books, the Red Sox still have plenty to prove in one of the toughest divisions in MLB. Nevertheless, there have been several bright spots mixed in with the bad and multiple signs of hope for this team going forward, such as its pitching staff.

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Their debatable sellout streak may be over, but the 2013 Red Sox have quickly become the talk of Boston after their incredible start to the season.

At 18-7, the Sox are off to their best start since they opened the 2004 season at 18-7. We all know how that year turned out—with World Series rings in Boston.

This year’s team owes its success not to a host of mashing offensive talent, but rather to its starting pitching. Red Sox starters boast a 15-4 record and 3.07 ERA. Take out the putrid numbers of Alfredo Aceves’ three starts and the starting staff’s numbers look even better (14-4, 2.59 ERA).

Yes, it is safe to say the stink of the Bobby Valentine era has been washed away by this tremendous April.

However, that is not to say that everything is perfect. Several players on the Red Sox roster have not fared as well so far and will be looking to bounce back over the rest of the season.

Let’s take a look at the winners and losers from the Red Sox’s hot start.

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The Boston Red Sox have not made the playoffs since being swept out of the postseason against the Los Angeles Angels in 2009 and now have a real chance to make it back in the playoffs with a wide open AL East.

The ESPN Boston writers all predict that the Red Sox will make the postseason, Lester and Lackey will have strong years and that Jacoby Ellsbury will be healthy and flourish in his year before he is expected to hit free agency.

The Red Sox have all the right pieces to make into the postseason in 2013. They have veteran leaders with the likes of Ryan Dempster and Shane Victorino who have come in and will likely be voices in the clubhouse all season. 

Also, the younger stars, such as Dustin Pedroia and Will Middlebrooks, are making strides to stay healthy and will be part of the offensive juggernaut that is the Red Sox, who finished sixth in the AL in runs scored in 2012. They could score even more if everyone plays many, if not all, of the 162 games.

The real question marks on this team are David Ortiz and Mike Napoli. Both can hit the bar far, but can they play over 120 games in 2013?

Ortiz has to take five to seven days off to relieve some inflammation in his heels and Napoli has some issues with his hip, but has so far showed no sign of injury. If both can put up at least 25 home runs each, then it should be a top-three offense come the end of the 2013 season.

The AL East is wide open with injuries to the New York Yankees and the other teams not really up to par offensively. The Toronto Blue Jays may be in the mix, but that depends on team chemistry.

Another factor for the Red Sox is the starting pitching, In 2012, the Sox finished with a 4.70 ERA. That was third worst in the AL, and the AL leader was at 4.78. 

It all comes down to Lester and Lackey to right this ship.

Lester needs to bounce back in 2013 with over 16 wins and an ERA under 3.50 for the Sox to stay in contention. Lackey needs to pitch around .500 with an ERA under 4.50 to be the fourth starter for this team. It may take awhile to get used to seeing him start every fifth day, but it will be an interesting season to watch.

Another big topic is the health and success of Ellsbury in 2013.

After being out most of 2012 with a shoulder injury, Ellsbury has looked decent this spring. He is hitting .227 in 22 at-bats with no stolen bases this spring. Once he starts reaching base effectively, expect manager John Farrell to run him into the ground.

The young center fielder has some competition with Jackie Bradley Jr. hitting .517 with an OBP of .618, and that should motivate him, along with his pending free agency at the end of the season. He could possibly put up numbers close to 2011, but I say at least a .290 average with 24 home runs and 45 stolen bases is likely.

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