Tag: Phil Hughes

New York Yankees: Good Decision in Limiting the Innings of Phil Hughes?

Phil Hughes, aka Phranchise, will start Tuesday night’s game against the Seattle Mariners and Cliff Lee. Hughes, though, had his last start skipped out on the West Coast trip through Arizona and Los Angeles.

The reason? After throwing mostly in relief last year, he is on an innings limit this season, with the Yankees likely not to let Hughes go above 180 innings. After throwing 105 innings last season, Hughes would have that number bumped up by 75 innings over 2009.

Depending on the source, this number of 180 innings does or does not include playoffs.

Why so much of an increase? The Verducci Effect says that any young pitcher under the age of 25 who throws more than 30 innings over the prior season is ripe for injury or a lower level of production.

TVE started out as 40 innings over the prior season, but I guess there were not enough injuries so Verducci reduced the number to 30 innings. The original theory only contained injuries, but King Tom also added an increase in ERA to prove his points of pitcher abuse.

Well, Hughes did throw 111 innings in 2007, 100 in 2008 (including the 30 he threw in the Arizona Fall League), and 105 last year. He also threw in the 2007 and 2009 postseasons.

Maybe the Yankees feel that Hughes has built up enough innings over the last three years (316) that he can withstand the “rigors” of 180 innings.

I feel that Hughes also can withstand those innings, and much more. I would not have sat him at all, especially with the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays in hot pursuit of first place. Your teams’ best pitcher is being reduced in his work detail.

But I understand why the Yankees did it. They do not want to be blamed for anything if Hughes ever hurts his arm*. Don’t want to hear if from the fans, the media, the agents, or even fantasy baseball owners. They don’t want to lose their future investment of a great arm.

* Newsflash! Almost all pitchers hurt their arms during their careers, many needing surgery. It is the nature of the beast in a most unnatural act. Even Roger Clemens, one of the most durable pitchers of all time, had shoulder surgery in 1985 at age 22. He only won 350+ plus games afterwards, and is 16th all time in total innings pitched.

Those who do not hurt their arms usually have tremendous mechanics like Greg Maddux, who threw 167 pitches in a game at age 22 and still made his next 700+ starts. Maddux also has starts that season of 131 pitches (twice), 134 pitches, and 143 pitches in his first start, April 6.

Maddux also had accumulated 86 professional innings in 1986, jumped to 186 innings the following season (increase of 100), then threw 196 in 1986. After throwing 183 combined minor and Major League innings in 1987, Maddux threw 249 Major League innings in 1988, a jump of 66 innings over the prior season.

The reason? Great mechanics, which lessened the pressure on the shoulder and elbow. Maybe Mark Prior should be working with Maddux and not Tom House.

And since Hughes has now become what was expected of him, a really good young pitcher who is 10-1 with a 3.14 ERA entering Tuesday, the Yankees are taking it easy.

It is a mistake, but I applaud this move by the Yankees to limit Hughes’ innings.

All the horror stories of Mark Fidrych throwing 250 innings in 1976 at age 21 and Doc Gooden throwing 276 innings in 1985 at age 20 are scaring off these teams on using their young pitchers to win games. Both Don Gullett and Gary Nolan of the Big Red Machine days of the early 1970s had logged totals of 200+ innings in their early 20s, including Gullett at age 20.

All four of these young pitchers were never the same after many years of these high innings pitched seasons.

Well, can someone please let me know how Doc Gooden would ever replicate one of the greatest pitched seasons of all time when he went 24-4. 1.53 ERA, 268 strikeouts, and 0.965 WHIP in 1985? It woudl be impossible.

What many people do not understand that the idea is to win games, not protect your “investments.”

There, I said it.

That means if a young pitcher, like Hughes or Gooden or Gullett, or even Stephen Strasburg, are throwing well in a tight pennant race, they have to pitch. I don’t care how old they are or how many innings they have thrown.

But I still like what the Yankees are doing with Hughes.

Injuries happen whether a pitcher is overused early in his career or not. While Fidrych, Gooden, Gullett, and Nolan are on one side, there are guys like Dennis Martinez**, Bert Blyleven, and Don Sutton who threw a lot of innings before age 25 and had long, productive careers.

Blyleven AVERAGED 289 innings in his age 22 through 25 seasons, including a high of 325 at age 22.

**And can some team please call Martinez and get him to pitch a third of an inning so he can reach 4,000 for his career. Even at 55 years of age, I bet El Presidente can get one guy out. If Chad Gaudin can get someone out, then anybody can. How about a promo day in September for the Nationals, the franchise Martinez threw a perfecto with? That four game series vesus Houston looks like a great time.

And I also contend that Nolan and Gooden had nice careers, too. Nolan ended up having 110 wins and started 30+ games five times, while Gooden started 410 games over a 16 year career, winning 194.

Lots of guys today are having Tommy John surgery (TJS) and have been limited in pitch counts and their innings. Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins has TJS a few years ago, and was closely monitored throughout his pro career.

The Yankees have a bunch of minor leaguers who have had TJS and they monitor everything pitcher wise, including the use of the minor league “phantom DL” to give guys innings breaks. Heck, a few years ago the Toronto Blue Jays had a slew of young pitchers who had surgery and they were monitored throughout their careers.

All the precautions in attempts to extend a young pitchers career has eliminated the dominant season (glad Ubaldo is here now), or that run of great seasons. Building up guys over time is fine, but now even veteran pitchers are limited to seven inning starts and a little more than 200 innings a year.

There are too many decisions going to middle relievers, guys with no business being in the critical parts of games. Is asking a pitcher to throw 15 pitches an inning over nine innings too much?

It is ridiculous to ask someone to be like Iron Man Joe McGinnity again, who used to throw both ends of a double header. But to throw 135 pitches over nine innings (15 per inning) does not seem problematic, especially when a pitcher conditions himself to do so.

Most great pitchers like Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, and the like only became what they were because they were allowed to become what they are.

Steve Carlton only became Steve Carlton because he was allowed to be Steve Carlton.

And that is to take the ball all the time, throwing enough to win (or lose) the game that day, going out and doing it again every four (now five) days. Those types of pitchers used to “get better as the game went along.”

That phrase was even used this season about Strasburg. But Strasburg is not yet being allowed to become Strasburg. And Hughes is not yet being allowed to become Phil Hughes.

But I like what the Yankees are doing with Hughes, and what the Nationals are doing with Strasburg.

And what the Reds are doing with Mike Leake, what the San Diego Padres are doing with their young starters, and what the Baltimore Orioles are doing with young starters Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta.

The Yankees, as well as many other teams, most notably Kansas City when Zack Greinke starts games, have lost games in which they held middle-to-late inning leads. What the manager did was remove the starting pitcher after six or seven innings to hand the lead over to the bullpen.

Many times this ends in team losses, and in close pennant races in September those games blown early count just the same.

Hall of Fame pitcher Robin Roberts died just about two months ago, and he won 286 games, including 20+ wins in six straight seasons from age 23 through age 28. He also won 19 a year later at age 29. He dominated those six/seven seasons, and despite having double-digit wins in eight other seasons.

After he averaged 319 innings per season, Roberts was really never the same after age 28.

But I would rather have those dominating six years, then have a real good pitcher for 15 seasons who doesn’t dominate, but gets his obligatory 12+ wins every year. Are these teams trying to get 30 starts out of these guys for 15 years?

If so, that would be a nice, long career of 450 starts.

Know how many pitchers have started 450+ games in MLB? Only 77.

In the history of Major League Baseball, only 77 pitchers have started 450+ games, the equivalent of a 15 year career at 30 starts per season.

And most of these guys began their careers before 1985, the era when pitch counts started to become common.

So let’s get these pitchers to start dominating again over shorter time periods.

Give me Phil Hughes or Stephen Strasburg or a Mike Leake dominating for seven seasons before mediocrity hits. The teams will be better because of it, and if a team cannot develop another good starting pitcher or two (or three) in seven years then player development is the problem.

But I like what the Yankees are doing with Hughes, what the Nationals are doing with Strasburg, and what the Reds are doing with Leake.

Because when one of these guys (or any other “limited innings” pitcher) gets an arm injury and needs surgery, then baseball can get forget about these stupid pitch counts and innings limits, and back to the days of the dominating, workhorse starting pitcher.

I believe Phil Hughes can be that guy. Just let Phil be Phil.

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Yankees-Mariners Series Preview: Seattle Aims To Strong Arm New York

The Yankees closed out the Interleague slate with their best victory of the year, mounting a dramatic four-run comeback in the ninth against the Dodgers on Sunday, before winning the game on MVP candidate Robinson Cano’s two-run homer in the 10th.

New York took two out of three from Los Angeles to finish 11-7 versus the National League. The first-place Bombers (47-28) now welcome in the last-place Mariners (31-44) for a three-game set this week at Yankee Stadium.

The problem for Seattle this year has been hitting. They rank last in baseball in home runs and hits, while placing 27th with a .239 batting average. On the other hand, pitching has been a strength. The Mariners rank eighth with a 3.90 ERA and send two of their best to the hill in the first two games against the Yankees.

Tuesday, June 29  Phil Hughes (10-1, 3.17) vs. Cliff Lee (6-3, 2.39)

When Hughes was skipped in his last turn in the rotation, it set up quite a pitching matchup for the series opener. The right-hander has won his last five starts, but was held out last week in an effort to keep his innings down during his first full season in the rotation.

The 24-year-old is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in four appearances (one start) against the Mariners. Seattle’s roster hits just .182 (4-for-22) off him, led by Josh Wilson, who is 2-for-4. Russell Branyan, who was recently reacquired by the M’s, has homered off Hughes, but Casey Kotchman, Jose Lopez and Chone Figgins are a combined 0-for-11.

Lee is being considered a hot commodity as the Trade Deadline approaches and the Yankees were once rumored to be a possible suitor, although I’m not sure why New York, which already has three probable All-Stars in its rotation, would need another hurler.

But someone is going to land a Cy Young candidate if the left-hander gets moved, as he has thrown three complete games in his last four starts to position himself atop the American League standings in that category (4), along with ERA and WHIP (0.91).

Lee is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA in nine regular-season starts against the Bombers, but went 2-0 versus them in the World Series last year, including a masterful Game 1 performance, during which he allowed only one unearned run and struck out 10.

Derek Jeter hits Lee well (11-for-27, .407), as does Mark Teixeira (9-for-23, .391), while lefty Cano (4-for-18, .222) is about the only Yankee who does not.

 

Wednesday, June 30  Javier Vazquez (6-6, 5.16) vs. Felix Hernandez (5-5, 3.28)

Vazquez turned in his worst outing in a month against the D-backs last Wednesday, surrendering four runs over five innings. I wouldn’t be surprised if this trend continued now that the Interleague part of the year has finished. The right-hander, who dominated the National League in 2009, went 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA against the NL this season, but is just 4-5 with a 6.30 versus the superior AL. Then again, he may get a reprieve against the light-hitting Mariners.

Vazquez is 4-2 with a 4.35 ERA in six starts against the M’s. Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-12 (.333) with a homer off him, while Kotchman is 3-for-8 (.375) and Branyan is 3-for-6 (.500) with a remarkable three homers.

Milton Bradley, however, is just 3-for-18 (.167) and Lopez is 2-for-14 (.143).

King Felix tossed his second consecutive complete game his last time out and now leads the league with 112 2/3 innings pitched, while ranking fourth in strikeouts (105).

Hernandez is 2-3 with a 4.59 ERA in five starts against the Yankees, including 1-1 with a 4.97 in the Bronx.

Five Bombers hit better than .300 off the right-hander. Teixeira is 11-for-36 (.306) with three blasts, Curtis Granderson is 9-for-25 (.360), but has 10 strikeouts, Jeter is 5-for-15 (.333), Cano is 5-for-13 (.385) and Jorge Posada is 3-for-5 (.600).

 

Thursday, July 1  CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.49) vs. Ryan Rowland-Smith (1-7, 6.18)

If there’s going to be one blowout in this series, this figures to be it. Sabathia probably wishes there were 31 days in June because after a rocky May, he was outstanding last month, going 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA.

The big lefty is 6-4 with a 2.97 in 14 starts versus Seattle. Ichiro Suzuki has battered him around, however, collecting 19 hits in 48 at-bats (.396). Figgins is 5-for-16 (.313), Bradley is 4-for-11 (.364) and Gutierrez is 4-for-9 (.444).

But Lopez (.125), Jack Wilson (.123) and Josh Wilson (.167) each just have two hits in double-digit at-bats against Sabathia.

Rowland-Smith is just holding a spot for the injured Erik Bedard at this point. He allowed five runs and two homers in 5 1/3 innings against the Brewers on Friday.

The left-hander has no record and a 5.29 ERA in six appearances (two starts) versus the Yanks and has allowed five runs in 3 2/3 innings of relief in the Bronx.

But maybe all of the guys Rowland-Smith has had trouble with are gone. New York’s roster hits just .189 off him and Teixeira is 2-for-11 (.182).

 

Follow me on Twitter at JordanHarrison .

Jordan Schwartz is one of Bleacher Report’s New York Yankees and College Basketball Featured Columnists. His book Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Baseball’s Best: The Top 12 Players at Each Position in the Game

Which young players are stepping up into stardom? Who’s having a down year or playing too long after their prime?

Over the next few weeks, as we approach the middle of the season, follow along as I give an in-depth analysis of the top 12 players at each position in the game.

When I broke down each position, I took several things into consideration: how many seasons each player has been hitting at a high level, how well each player is hitting this season, how much potential each player has left, and how solid each player is defensively.

So without further ado, here are the top 12 catchers in baseball…

Begin Slideshow


Yankees-Dodgers Series Preview: New York Faces Former Manager Joe Torre

The Yankees (45-27) square off against former manager Joe Torre for the first time since he left the team after the 2007 season, as New York travels to face the Dodgers in Los Angeles for a three-game series this weekend.

Torre led the Bombers to four World Series titles between 1996-2000, but lost his touch and overworked the bullpen over his final three years in New York, during which the Yanks failed to advance past the American League Division Series.

Now, Torre manages the Dodgers (39-33), a team that stands in third place in the National League West, three games back of first-place San Diego. Los Angeles is a solid offensive team, ranking eighth in baseball with a .267 average, but it has a mediocre pitching staff. The Dodgers strike out the second most batters, but rank 17th with a 4.14 ERA.

Let’s take a look at the pitching matchups. 

Friday, June 25 – CC Sabathia (8-3, 3.68) vs. Vicente Padilla (1-1, 6.67)

Sabathia starts the opener after the Yankees chose to skip Phil Hughes’ turn in the rotation. Despite the right-hander’s excellent first three months, I don’t have a big problem with this because he is already within four innings of his career high for a season and the organization wants him to be healthy enough to pitch down the stretch.

We all knew this would happen and I’d rather the team do it this way because of an off-day on Thursday, rather than limit him to a certain number of innings or pitches in August or September starts like they did when they destroyed Joba Chamberlain’s career last year. I guess they’re learning.

As for Sabathia, he’s returned to form after a rough May. The big lefty is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA in June and allowed just four hits over eight shutout innings against the Mets his last time out.

The former Brewer has made one start in his career against Los Angeles, earning a no-decision while surrendering just one run on five hits with 10 strikeouts in seven innings at Dodger Stadium.

Padilla has yielded at least four runs in four of his five starts this season, including his first outing since returning from the disabled list – a four-run, 5 1/3-inning performance at Fenway Park last Saturday.

The ex-Ranger is 1-2 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts against the Yankees. Robinson Cano (4-for-11, .364, HR) and Derek Jeter (4-for-10, .400) have had success versus the right-hander. Nick Swisher (1-for-15, .067, 5 K’s) and Alex Rodriguez (2-for-12, .167) have not.

 

Saturday, June 26 – A.J. Burnett (6-6, 4.83) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (6-5, 3.06)

Burnett is scheduled to make his next start after leaving the team on Wednesday to be with his ailing grandfather. Who knows if that has been weighing on his mind this month because he is 0-4 with a 10.35 ERA in June.

The former Marlin is 3-2 with a 2.45 in seven starts against the Dodgers, including a 1-2 record and 2.55 ERA in three appearances in Los Angeles.

Rafael Furcal is 9-for-29 (.310) off him, and Garret Anderson is 5-for-14 (.357), but Jamey Carroll is 3-for-13 (.231) with five strikeouts.

Kuroda has been stellar over his past three starts, sporting a 0.95 ERA but just a 1-1 record thanks to very little run support in two of those appearances.

The right-hander has never faced the Yankees, but he has seen Mark Teixeira five times, allowing him two hits and a walk in five at-bats.

 

Sunday, June 27 – Andy Pettitte (9-2, 2.48) vs. Clayton Kershaw (7-4, 3.24)

It makes sense that the best pitching matchup of the series will be featured on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Pettitte continued his incredible season last outing by giving up two runs or fewer in at least seven innings for the sixth straight time.

He is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA on the road this year and 2-0 with a 4.05 in three career starts at Dodger Stadium. Overall, he is 2-0 with a 3.33 against L.A.

But the Dodgers’ roster hits .338 off the southpaw, led by Anderson (33-for-82, .402) and old friend Manny Ramirez (32-for-77, .416, 8 2B, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 7 BB).

However, Carroll is just 2-for-15 (.133), Furcal is 1-for-12 (.083), Reed Johnson is 1-for-11 (.091) and Casey Blake is 1-for-7 (.143).

Kershaw had his second-worst outing of the season last time out, surrendering five runs in 6 2/3 innings at the Angels. That was only the second time in 15 starts that he had allowed more than four earned runs. Kershaw doesn’t pitch to contact; his 103 strikeouts are fifth in the National League and his 48 walks lead the NL.

The left-hander has never pitched against the Yankes and the only Bomber he’s faced is Nick Swisher, who he retired in one at-bat.

 

Follow me on Twitter at JordanHarrison .

Jordan Schwartz is one of Bleacher Report’s New York Yankees and College Basketball Featured Columnists. His book Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

 

Follow me on Twitter at JordanHarrison .

Jordan Schwartz is one of Bleacher Report’s New York Yankees and College Basketball Featured Columnists. His book Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


The New York Yankees New Core Four

In my last article I took a look back at the old guard of the New York Yankees: Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte.

Then I realized that New York might have a new core four of players: Brett Gardner, Robinson Cano, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain.

All of them won their first World Series together last year and are shaping into quite a nice quartet of players.

Everyone in the world of baseball now knows who Cano is and what he is capable of doing with the bat. As of June 17 he has the highest batting average in MLB at .370 and also leads the Yankees with 14 home runs and 48 RBI.

Cano is off to a great start to his still very young career, being only 27, and will definitely continue to be a force for the Yanks down the road. 

By far the biggest surprise on the Yankees this year has been the 26-year-old out fielder Gardner, who continues to impress even here in mid June so you can’t say he just started hot.

Gardner has hit three home runs and driven in 22 runs, but you can’t simply look at those stats when it comes to him. He has hit .317 for the Bombers, with a .401 on base percentage, and stolen 22 bases so far.

Gardner looks to be coming into his own this season, and is proving to be a tough out at the plate for any pitcher, lefty or righty. If he keeps this up all year, he might just be calling left field in the Bronx home for a long time.

Now to the pitching side, where the Yankees seem to be happy with Chamberlain in the bullpen and in the set up role right now.

Being just 24 years old, Chamberlain has seen time in the rotation and now back again in the bullpen, where I believe he is best suited for. He has struggled at times this season, as evident in his 4.76 ERA, but most of that came from a few bumps in the road and he has settled down some recently.

Chamberlain has also picked up some saves this year when Rivera couldn’t go, and it looks like he might be the heir apparent to the great closer. Who knows what the future holds for Chamberlain, but if he can be half as good as Rivera, then it will be a bright one.

That brings me to Hughes who has firmly planted himself into the starting rotation for years to come this season.

The future ace of the Yankees, has gone 9-1 with a 3.11 ERA this year, after beating out Chamberlain for the fifth starter spot in the rotation.

Many thought that Chamberlain was built more like a starter than Hughes and that he should be in the rotation. Well I think the Yankees made the correct choice, and are extremely pleased with what they are getting out of him right now.

Only time will tell if this new core four will be better than the last, but so far they are off to a great start, and will be the faces of a new Yankee era.

 

 

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Time For Yankees’ Eiland Vacation To End, One Way Or Another!

By Larry Barnes | Yankees ‘n More and The New York Yankees Daily-Press
It is past time for the New York Yankees to have a fulltime pitching coach on staff – a benefit the Yankees haven’t enjoyed for a week and counting. That’s because Dave Eiland has some unnamed personal issue that has kept him away from the team.

Call it cold-hearted if you must, but the world doesn’t stop because Eiland can’t show up to work and doing his job. The Yankees have to keep playing, and many of their starting pitchers are suddenly struggling.

In fact, only two starters in the last six games (the time missed thus far by Eiland) have not experienced mechanical/command issues. Those would be Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez in their respective most recent starts.

Everybody else – A.J. Burnett (twice), Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia – has struggled mightily to command, among other things, their fastballs.

Such problems are almost always a sign of something a little off in the mechanics and noticing such things is one of the primary responsibilities of the pitching coach.

In fact, Sabathia struggled with mechanics a few starts back. It happened while Eiland was away to “attend his daughter’s graduation.”
SIDEBAR ISSUE: In light of recent events, it seems reasonable to question whether or not that was actually the reason for Eiland’s absence.

After Sabathia struggled through that previously mentioned game, there was no mention of anybody having spotted anything off with his mechanics. That is to say, nobody until the pitching coach returned and watched the tape.

Eiland said he “immediately noticed” a small flaw in Sabathia’s mechanics that was “easily correctible.”

One can only wonder how things might have been different were Eiland on the job to “immediately notice” this “easily correctible” flaw DURING the game.

Perhaps there were also little “easily correctible” things that went unnoticed during the Yankees road trip, which saw 67% of their starting pitchers used struggle with the same types of issues.

If only there were a real pitching coach around who might notice such things. Instead, the Yankees are trying to, in their words, “get by as best (they) can” with a bullpen coach serving as their pitching coach while Eiland’s absence continues with no end in sight.

General manager Brian Cashman, in fact, was specifically asked if Eiland might miss the rest of the season. His answer made it clear that the GM has no idea when or if Eiland might be ready to return.

“(Eiland) is taking some personal time and is expected to return as soon as practical,” Cashman said.

It is past time for the New York Yankees to once again have a fulltime and fully-invested pitching coach on staff. If Dave Eiland isn’t capable of showing up for work and/or doing his job, replace him with somebody who can.

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New York Yankees: Why Would They Trade for Cliff Lee Now?

There was a recent NY Post report by columnist George King which portrayed the New York Yankees as being interested in the services of left handed pitcher Cliff Lee of the Seattle Mariners. Lee is an outstanding pitcher, one of the top five pitchers in baseball.

The report states that Seattle expects the Yankees to attempt to obtain Lee, with information gathered from a person “familiar with Seattle’s thought process “. The Mariners are preparing for the Yankees to try and trade for Lee, and have scouts in attendance at various Yankees minor league games.

The Mariners, therefore, are assuming the Yankees have interest now .

Recently the Mariners have had two scouts at Low A Charleston and two in Reading, PA checking in on the Yankees Double A squad, the Trenton Thunder.

Possibilities in Charleston include pretty much nobody, except OF Slade Heathcott and C/DH J.R. Murphy , last year’s first and second round picks. Those two aren’t going anywhere. You want to say, maybe, Charleston RHP Jose Ramirez might be wanted, then OK, because he might have that proverbial upside . Otherwise, Charleston really offers nothing of value.

But Double A does offer real value for another team. Reportedly the Mariners like RHP David Phelps , 3B/1B Brandon Laird and C Austin Romine . Well, who doesn’t, right? You don’t have to be a pro scout to figure out that these three are the top players.

Phelps gets guys out and doesn’t walk anybody, Laird hits for great power and average, plus doesn’t strike out much. Romine is a well above average defensive catcher who hits for a high average. Three solid players who will all get to the big leagues…for some team.

The Mariners are starting “their trade talk” with a combination of one of the Yankees top catchers (either Jesus Montero or Romine) and Triple A shortstop Eduardo Nunez .

But just because the Mariners are scouting the Yankees prospects does not mean the Yankees are interested in trading any of them right now for Cliff Lee.

Knowing their 2010 season is shot, Seattle is probably getting a list of players they like for a proposal to the Yankees . The Mariners would like a few players in return for Lee who could help on the offensive end*.

 *The funny thing about Seattle and their new defensive first concept is that it worked well for one year because it took everyone by surprise. Now they improved their defense again by adding 1B Casey Kotchman and 3B/2B Chone Figgins, plus re-signing SS Jack Wilson.

But a team can save all the runs they want, but you still need to hit or the lack of consistent run production will add to the tremendous amount of pressure already on the pitching staff.

When a pitching staff knows it cannot give up 3 or more runs a game, the pressure to make every pitch count becomes unbearable .

While there is lots of talk regarding a trade of Lee to the Yankees, it doesn’t seem like the Yankees have initiated any of this talk of a trade . No one from the Yankees camp has ever said they want to trade with the M’s for Lee.

The Yankees M.O. is to wait and be patient until impending free agency, and not to trade prospects for veterans, especially when the veteran can walk that off season after the trade. Think what GM Brian Cashman did when Johan Santana was on the block prior to the 2008 season.  

The Yankees refused to trade RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Joba Chamberlain and 2B Robinson Cano (among other players) in several possible deals with Minnesota for Santana. The Yankees never offered Cano, but it was Minnesota who wanted him. Cashman was ripped for not making a trade for Santana, especially after the Yankees did not make the playoffs in 2008.

Instead Cashman went out and signed a free agent pitcher in CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett that following off season.

They did not make the playoffs in 2008, but the team won the World Series in 2009 and is now better in the long run.

Much of the talk now, though, is that the Yankees will trade for Lee. FoxSports Ken Rosenthal picked up on the story and quoted a rival executive saying the Yankees will trade for Lee because he is a “top of the rotation starter.” Many of these national writers don’t have any original ideas, but use only what comes from their sources.

They very rarely use analysis to figure out what would be good for the teams and why teams would do, or should not do certain things.

For example, for several reasons it is a flat out given that Cliff Lee will sign as a free agent with the Yankees in the off season.

1) Lee is really good friends with CC Sabathia, and CC has told him how great it is to play in New York.

2) Lee is really good friends with AJ Burnett, both are from Arkansas, and share the same agent, Darek Braunecker.

3) The Yankees have five really good starting pitchers right now. Even with Hughes on an innings limit this season (about 180, but it keeps going up), they only need to fill maybe five extra rotation starts during the season. That is assuming that no starter gets hurt. 

Seattle is the impatient group here, not wanting to worsen an already terrible trade they made for Lee. They really needed a bat, probably two instead of another top arm. Not that the players the Phillies got back from Seattle are any good either. Seattle did not give up much for Lee, and those players are all struggling this season in the Phillies system.

Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is blowing smoke out there wanting to have other teams think the Yankees will attempt to get Lee this season. It is similar to how agents let it be known the Yankees want to sign their free agents (even if it is not true), Zduriencik wants to drive the price up for his biggest trade bait.

There are already stories out there asking why don’t this team or that team now try and get Lee. Even Red Sox fans are wondering if Lee would be good for them .

I know the Mariner’s GM is doing his due diligence and seeing what the market can bear for his ace starting pitcher. But rather than approach other teams, it might be best to let other teams come to them. That way you can get more because the other teams are the needy ones.

But Seattle would be best to take the picks from Lee’s departure (although if it was the Yankees signing him, they would be lower picks) and use them in what already appears to be a really good draft pool of talent next season.

The Mariners GM has a tremendous track record of drafting and developing players. But like any GM, he is on the hot set to WIN NOW.

By not trading for Lee this season, the Yankees do not give away any players and only need spend money to sign Lee next year.

And by that time, they can then decide what to do with free agent to be Javier Vazquez and get feedback from Andy Pettitte with what he will do about a possible retirement.

This trade does not make sense from a Yankees stand point, unless one of their starters gets hurt–then the entire ballgame MIGHT change.

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If Cliff Lee Comes To the New York Yankees, Who Goes?

Well, the Yankees are looking to make a big splash. Again. With rumors surrounding the Yankees and Cliff Lee in a possible trade, you cannot help but wonder two things:

1. Who do the Yankees trade away?

2. Who is out of the starting rotation?

First, you need to remember that this might not necessarily happen through a trade. Lee is in his final contract year and is preparing to hit the winter slopes of free agency.

Let’s assume, for now, that he is traded to the Yankees. You’ll hear many rumors along the lines of “trading Robinson Cano” or “trading Phil Hughes.” Those rumors need to be dispelled now. The Yankees will never give away one of those two top young stars for a player that is soon to enter free agency anyway. The Mariners are also smart enough to not expect that much value in return.

So what would the M’s want? Many people are assuming SS Eduardo Nunez is on the table. This is one player I would miss if it meant getting Cliff Lee. Derek Jeter still has a couple of years in him, and I believe that the Yankees’ 2010 first round draft pick, SS Cito Culver, is underrated. He could be polished in time for when Jeter retires.

The Mariners are also rumored to want a catching prospect as well. I do not believe that this means Francisco Cervelli. He looks to be the official Jorge Posada replacement, as the latter has been plagued with injuries as of late (for this season anyway). Looking at the Yankees’ current prospects, I would expect that Jesus Montero or Austin Romine would be shipped west for Lee.

I’m not a supporter of trading for him though. The best bet for the Yankees is waiting until the winter.

As for the starting rotation, this deal would beg the question of “Who would be out?” The Yankees have room for improvement in their rotation…though it is not much.

CC Sabathia would be bumped down to the No. 2 spot in the rotation. This may sound crazy to some, but there’s a good reason for this. This season, Lee has a better ERA and a better BAA. He’s 4-2 on a Seattle team that does not offer much run support. CC is only 6-3, and Yankees fans have been crying for better production from him.

A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte would both be bumped down a spot as well. Phil Hughes would stay in the fifth spot in the rotation.

The odd man out? Javier Vazquez. Yes, he’s been picking up the pace lately with four wins in his last five starts. However, Pettitte is 7-1. Hughes is 8-2. Sabathia and Burnett are much more reliable.

If Lee comes to the Yanks in a trade, Vazquez is relegated to the bullpen or Triple-A. If the Yanks wait until free agency, Vazquez will be a free agent anyway. I don’t think the Yankees will re-sign him unless they are desperate. The only way I think the Yankees even consider him is if Pettitte retires, which I deem unlikely due to this year’s production.

What’s the impact? Well, you get a second true ace added to a rotation that would be a combined 31-11 at this moment. You also get another pitcher that can pitch deep into games, which will rest the bullpen a bit.

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Which New York Yankee Has the Highest Trade Value?

In the hours following Stephen Strasburg’s Brendan-Fraser-in-The-Scout -level debut for the Nationals on Tuesday, my buddy Howie posed this question to me (@danhanzus ) via Twitter:

Most trade value: Mauer, Hanley, Pujols or Strasburg? I say #Strasburg easy.

I said I thought Mauer may be the most valuable of the group, but the size of the catcher’s contract (eight years, $184 million) combined with Strasburg’s age (21) made the Nats right-hander the easy choice.

That got me thinking about which one of the Yankees had the most trade value. Hmmmm…

First some ground rules:

  • I’m only concerning myself with the 25-man roster and a couple of the DL stashees right now. The downside, of course, is that I can’t use the eight to 10 stellar Kei Igawa jokes I had lined up.
  • Money and age matter. Who would be more attractive to a prospective suitor: A-Rod, 34, with $170 million remaining on his contract, or Robinson Cano, 27, with $15 million left on his?
  • I’m going to keep the Core Four out of the mix here. Even within the confines of a completely hypothetical blog post, it would be ridiculous to discuss the trade value of Jeter/Mo/Po/Pettitte. Those old dogs are staying on the porch.

Let’s get started…

 

22) Alex Rodriguez, 3B: A-Rod is smack in the middle of the most untradeable contract in the history of professional sports (10 years, up to $300 million with escalators, signed back in 2007).

You want insanity? The Yankees owe him $150 million in the next five seasons alone and are on the hook to pay him through his 42nd birthday in 2017.

The Yankees could offer to eat half of the remaining dollars, and I bet they still wouldn’t find a taker. It’s no surprise that the Rodriguez contract re-up also doubled as Hank Steinbrenner’s final act of defined power in the organization.

 

21) Nick Johnson, DH: Let’s face it, baseball’s Mr. Glass has zero trade value in his current state. He’s playing out a one-year, $5.5 million deal and he’s already on the shelf until at least September following wrist surgery. May this be a warning, not just to Brian Cashman, but to all decision-makers around the league: If the player walks with a limp, do not give him a multi-million dollar contract.

 

20) Chad Gaudin, RP: Money obviously isn’t the roadblock to dealing Gaudin so much as a consistent ability to not be crappy. The A’s already cut him loose this season, so that should tell you something.

 

19) Chan Ho Park, RP: Park had his moments with the Phillies last season, but he hasn’t shown much in pinstripes, other than a propensity to overshare regarding his gastrointestinal problems.

He’s playing out a one-year, $1.2 million deal and Brian Cashman would probably drive him to his next destination himself if he could get any real value back.

 

18) Kevin Russo, INF/OF

 

17) Ramiro Pena, INF

 

16) Marcus Thames, OF

Kevin Russo and Ramiro Pena are basically interchangeable—a couple of career reserves destined for a spot on the Long Island Ducks team bus in 2012.

Marcus Thames can actually hit, but he possesses the defensive skills of my seven-year-old cousin. Buyers beware.

 

15) Sergio Mitre, RP: The one-time Marlins prospect is now two years removed from Tommy John surgery and is playing out a one-year, $850,000 deal. He can start or come out of the ‘pen with intensely average results. That’s the hardest I can sell the dude.

 

14) Alfredo Aceves, RP: The Ace Man had been a major piece of the Yankees’ bullpen for two years, but he’s stuck with a back only Don Mattingly could love. If you don’t mind your setup men in traction, Aceves is the guy for you. Interested?

 

13) Damaso Marte, RP: Left-handed relief pitchers are always in demand, unless they’re Marte, who is in the second year of an unnecessarily gaudy three-year, $12 million deal.

Postseason heroics aside, Marte has been an enigma in pinstripes, and it’s still hard to justify why Cashman was so eager to lock him up.

 

12) David Robertson, RP: Don’t tell him I said this, but there are thousands of Dave Robertsons in the world. Every big league bullpen has at least three: a hard-throwing right-hander who misses bats but can’t consistently pitch clean innings.

Robertson’s K/9 rate may make him desirable when viewed in the right context, but the Yanks shouldn’t hold their breath on that Strasburg-for-Robertson offer.

 

11) CC Sabathia, SP: Obviously on a much smaller scale than A-Rod’s, but the size of Sabathia’s deal (seven years, $161 million, signed in 2009) makes the big man difficult to move in more ways than one. If you have the resources, trading for an ace left-hander in the prime of his career is certainly tempting.

But, then again, you’ll also be paying for Sabathia’s 2015 season, when a then-35-year-old Carsten Charles may need a crane to leave his house.

 

10) A.J. Burnett, SP: Burnett is more or less exactly the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting when they signed the right-hander to a five-year, $82.5 million deal prior to the ’09 season.

Is he worth the $16.5 million annual rate his contract commands through 2013? Probably not, but his high upside, coupled with his ability to stay healthy for the past two-and-a-half years, would make him at least an intriguing thought for GMs around the league.

 

9) Mark Teixeira, 1B: The good news? Put aside the struggles that have accompanied his 2010 season, Teixeira is a 30-year-old, Gold Glove-winning first baseman who doubles as a virtual lock for 35+ homers and 120 RBIs every season.

The bad news? He’s in the second year of an eight-year, $180 million deal. If you have the scratch, he has immense trade value. But how many teams can even entertain that thought?

 

8) Francisco Cervelli, C: Cervelli remains an intriguing figure in the Yankees’ landscape. He was a prospect who couldn’t hit in the minors, then he got called up into emergency duty in 2009 and transformed himself into a .300 hitter at the big league level.

Cervelli’s sizzling start to 2010 was equally as impressive, though he seems to be in the midst of a stiff market correction (hitting .132 since May 25).

With the Yankees loaded at the catcher position in the farm system, it’s possible that Cervelli will become offseason trade bait. His defense, speed, youth, and enthusiasm would undoubtedly make him an attractive option to many teams.

 

7) Brett Gardner, LF: It’s hard to say what Gardner’s ceiling is at this point. Best-case scenario, he’s an evolutionary Brett Butler with a bigger head. Worst-case scenario, he’s a vagrant man’s Jacoby Ellsbury without the female fanclub. His blazing speed cannot be denied, however, and his league-minimum salary helps as well.

 

6) Nick Swisher, RF: The White Sox obviously didn’t think Swisher had much trade value, having dealt away the gregarious outfielder for the immortal Wilson Betemit, a move that ranks amongst Cashman’s very best.

Swisher has made Ozzie & Co. pay ever since, returning to the form that put him on the map with the Athletics in the mid-2000s.

The five-year, $26.75 million deal signed in 2007 seems like a steal for a consistent producer in the middle of the Yankees lineup and an all-around swell guy.

 

5) Javier Vazquez, SP: Now that Vazquez seems to have put his slow start behind him, he can once again be viewed as a welcome piece to any team’s pitching staff. He’s also in the walk year of a very reasonable three-year, $34.5 million deal.

If the Yankees were ever sellers in late July, Vazquez would be at the top of many lists.

 

4) Curtis Granderson, CF: A groin injury wiped out a month of his first half, so Yankees fans still haven’t gotten the full Granderson Effect.

But the speedy center fielder was a coveted player on Brian Cashman’s wish list for some time, and his five-tool abilities, good-guy reputation, and reasonable salary ($5.5 million in ’10, $8.25 million in ’11, $10 million in ’12) make him a desirable asset to many teams.

 

3) Joba Chamberlain, RP: Make no mistake, if the Yankees ever put Joba on the block, there would be interest.

Yankees fans—not to mention the Yankees themselves—are still trying to recalibrate Chamberlain’s upside following his electric 2007 debut, but you can imagine teams would line up at the thought of making the 25-year-old their next closer.

Couple his potential with his affordability—he’s earning just over the Major League minimum right now and becomes arbitration-eligible in 2011—and he’s one sexy carrot.  Please don’t tell him I said that. In fact, let’s just move on …

 

2) Phil Hughes, SP: After three years of build up, Hughes has emerged as a Cy Young candidate in 2010. He’s just 23 years old. He’s essentially making the league minimum with three more years before he can become an unrestricted free agent. Yes, I’d say Mr. Hughes has a rather high trade value.

Brian Cashman resisted the temptation of shipping Hughes to the Twins in exchange for Johan Santana back in 2007, and the team is reaping the benefits of that decision now. It was the type of restraint the Yankees are famous for not having, and hopefully the organization learned an important lesson in the process.

 

1) Robinson Cano, 2B: For all the good things Cano had done in his previous five seasons in New York, he always seemed to leave fans expecting more. That’s changed in 2010, with Cano in the midst of legitimate MVP-level campaign.

Just entering his prime at age 27, Cano is in the third year of an increasingly reasonable four-year, $30 million deal, which includes club options for 2011 and 2012.

When you factor in his production, upside, and affordability, Robbie is easily the Yankee with the highest trade value. And somewhere in an underground club in Atlanta, Melky hoists up a glow stick in his best friend’s honor.

Dan Hanzus writes the Yankees blog River & Sunset and can be reached via e-mail at dhanzus@gmail.com. Follow Dan on Twitter at danhanzus .

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Phil Hughes: Should the New York Yankees Let Him Pitch?

The Yankees apparently have a “plan” for Phil Hughes that will take effect in the coming months, allowing him to stay within his pitching limits this season, in other words the Joba Rules turned Hughes Rules.

Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland have it set up so that they could give Hughes an extra two weeks of days off over the next two months.

The Yanks do have four scheduled days off in June, and an additional five off in July. Add the All-Star break on top of that, then yes, the Yankees plan does schedule out correctly.

That is, of course, if everything is smooth sailing in the rotation and with the team in general from here on out. But any person who has been around baseball will tell you “smooth sailing” is just a dream to Managers and GM’s.

To this point in the season Phil Hughes has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the rotation, and the Yanks are going to need him to continue to be strong every time out if they want to make the playoffs this year.

And who’s to say another starter won’t get hurt? Andy Pettitte has been great, but he is 37 years old. AJ Burnett has had shoulder trouble in the past, and Javy Vazquez is not that young himself. Whatever the case may be, the Yankees would need Hughes more than ever if one of the other starters missed time.

Tweaking his scheduled starts could potentially disrupt his rythm that he has finally found this year, so why would you try and fix something that’s not broke?

This plan is similar to the Joba Rules, and we all know how those turned out. But a similar plan was instituted by the Detroit Tigers last year with their young pitcher Rick Porcello that seemed to work.

Granted, Porcello did pitch better after his pitching plan, going 6-3 with a 3.76 ERA after the All-Star break, compared to 8-6 with a 4.14 ERA before the break. But you did notice the Tigers were not in the playoffs last year, after their collapse in the second half of the season.

The Yankees have a lot more resources at their disposal than the Tigers had, and are a better team, but one can only wonder if Porcello had pitched more games last season. Maybe the Tigers would have won the division, instead of losing a tie-breaker, if they could have had just one more win.

Phil Hughes is young at just 23 years old, but has a substantial amount of pitching experience under his belt, certainly more than Porcello had when he made his debut last season.

So just let him pitch. 

 

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