Kuzul

Part 3 of 7

Although the Phillies have a league-wide reputation as an offensive powerhouse, their numbers were down across the board this season. Appearances can be deceiving. 

A peek at the rankings suggests that the Phillies might take a back seat to other playoff teams in terms of offensive output.  

The Cincinnati Reds lead the National League in runs, batting average (.270), home runs (181), and slugging percentage (.434.)

Although in-season acquisitions have bolstered their run production, both the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres are built around pitching. Similarly, the Atlanta Braves rely more on pitching than offense to win games. 

Although the presence of the designated hitter makes comparisons between the two leagues difficult, all four American League clubs have posted impressive offensive statistics this season. The AL contenders have varying formulas, but each of them ranks in the top five in runs scored. 

When it comes to the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies, though, the stat sheets don’t tell the true story. Sometimes there is truth in the old adage “figures lie and liars figure” and this is a prime example.  

For the past several seasons, the Phillies reigned at the top of league rankings with their high octane offense. 

The previous two seasons placed them first in home runs. Last year, they captured that distinction by a large margin, clubbing 34 more than the next National League  team. 

As further validation that the Phillies have been built for the long ball, they ranked one or two in slugging percentage over the past four campaigns. 

And, in the true measure of offensive prowess, the Phils ranked first or second in runs scored each of the previous five seasons. 

In 2010, Philadelphia’s home run production currently sits 61 dingers behind that of a year ago. It is safe to say, regardless of any further exploits by Ben Francisco, John Mayberry, or Mike Sweeney in the regular season’s last three games, the final tally will be a very large drop-off. 

After a strong stretch run, they have climbed the rankings a bit in runs scored, but will likely finish third. 

Statistics and rankings aside, though, this is probably the team’s most dangerous lineup in the current era of prosperity. 

The recorded numbers mask the lineup’s true offensive potential as well as the level of anxiety it stirs amongst opposing hurlers. 

Just ask Jonathan Broxton.

The reason that the numbers seem not to align, of course, is simple—Phillies regulars logged an inordinate amount of time in the training room this year. 

The injury impact on the statistics has been two-fold. The most obvious has been the lost production associated with the roughly 200 games that regulars have not stepped on the playing field due to physical ailments.   

And, then, when players returned to action, their productivity suffered from inactivity and an often compromised physical state. This was most notable with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins as they struggled to regain their swings. 

And, I would be remiss not to mention that Howard’s stint on the DL and subsequent recovery non-fortuitously coincided with the stretch of season that has historically been his own personal fireworks display. 

The way this season has gone, it would be foolish to rule out anymore physical setbacks. That notwithstanding, though, it is the Phillies’ good fortune— and opponents’ ill fortune—that the lineup is set to be intact for the postseason.  

And, as good as the Reds hit all year, this Phillies lineup as it was conceived in the offseason is the gold standard. 

It possesses the rare combination of game changing speed and power capable of alternately intimidating opposing hurlers while instilling confidence in its own. 

Count this Phillies potent offense as another key October advantage. It appears poised to do some postseason damage. 

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Living in New York City and listening to the countless New York Mets and Yankees talk on the radio and on TV, I probably don’t appreciate the Philadelphia Phillies as much as I should. This group or core of Philly players is a very, very special group.

The Phillies clinched the National League East division title with an 8-0 win over the Washington Nationals on Monday night. It’s their fourth division title in a row.

The Phillies have clearly established themselves as the class of the National League and have something really special going on. Yes, the Phillies have stars in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth, but these guys are also winners.

It’s very rare in sports to have players who are stars and also winners. The Yankees had them in the late ’90s, the Boston Red Sox had them in 2004 and in 2007, and the Phillies have them now. Even their role players are winners.

If the game is on the line and Carlos Ruiz is coming to the plate, I would bet a large sum of money that he comes through. Same can be said for Shane Victorino.

Now, the Phillies will go into the postseason with some questions. How is Jimmy Rollins‘ hamstring? Has Brad Lidge fully turned things around? Will J.C. Romero be able to get out a tough lefty late in the game like Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, or Brian McCann?

All legitimate questions, but if you are a Phillies fan, you have to feel very good about your team heading into the playoffs. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and in the first round have opted for the eight-day schedule, which means that they will only have to use a three-man rotation in the first round.

Good luck to whoever is facing Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in the NLDS.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Part 2 of 7

The Philadelphia Phillies current era of success has been built around a nucleus of talented players. Some players have come and gone, but that core has been present through the team’s rise and current reign as one of baseball’s elite teams. 

Players such as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels are at the center of the core and have served as the key catalysts to the organization’s ascension from an “also-ran” to an elite ball club. 

Other young talents such as Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Ryan Madson, Carlos Ruiz, Greg Dobbs, JC Romero and Kyle Kendrick were layered onto the nucleus. Oh, and a not-so-young pitcher named Jamie Moyer. 

The first four in that group have been key elements of the team’s success over the past four seasons, while the latter four have played important parts at various times. 

Since the team’s first trip to the postseason in this era, the club has added seasoned veterans such as Brad Lidge, Raul Ibanez, Joe Blanton, Roy Halladay, Placido Polanco, and Roy Oswalt to the mix.  

Overall, the result is a Phillies team tested by the rigors of postseason play and grounded by the experience of having previously visited the fall tourney. 

It could be argued that the team’s top pitcher is not playoff-tested, as last night’s clinching win landed Halladay there for the first time in his 14-year career. Of course, anyone who has witnessed his chip-on-the-shoulder intensity and unwavering tenacity understands that he is made for the big stage. 

As far as the Roy at the other end of “The Big Three,” Oswalt’s resume sports five postseason series, including a World Series appearance in 2005. Importantly, the hard throwing right-hander also brings an unblemished 4-0 postseason record and an overall reputation as a money pitcher.

The other key 2010 newbie on the team is Polanco. But, unlike Halladay, he brings the accumulated experience of six postseason series, including a World Series appearance with the Detroit Tigers in 2006.

Playing in a short series with an entire season’s body of work and often years of anticipation on the line can be very daunting. The game can suddenly speed up, and nerves can kick in even for the most accomplished players. 

For evidence, you need to look no further than these same current era Phillies. After overtaking the New York Mets to capture their first division crown in 2007, the club ran a quick three-and-out like an NFL practice squad quarterback.

The same lineup that tore up National League pitching all season long seemed suddenly hesitant and lackluster. The Phillies hit just .172 and pushed but eight runs across the plate over three losing contests against the Colorado Rockies. 

There is nothing like having previously “been there, done that.”

Looking at the other potential NL playoff participants, all seem to be green in terms of postseason experience.  The Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres are all relative upstarts in terms of recent playoff experience.  

The last time any of those clubs participated in the fall tourney was 2006 when the Padres made a quick exit in the NLDS. The only holdovers from that team in 2010 are first baseman Adrien Gonzalez and pitcher Chris Young. 

The Braves last participated in the postseason in 2005, also making a first round exit. Similarly, the current squad represents an almost total transformation with pitcher Tim Hudson and then back-up catcher Brian McCann being the only common denominators. 

The current San Francisco Giants roster has zero resemblance to the 2003 squad that last made the playoffs. That team, of course, was anchored by a controversial slugger known for posting statistics that seemed to exceed normal human limits. 

And, lastly, Cincinnati has mostly been a bottom-dweller since the new millennium. The Reds’ last trip to the postseason was a four-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves way back in 1995. Needless to say, there are no holdovers. 

Conversely, since the Phillies “just-happy-to-be-there” 2007 cameo, the same core of players has participated in six postseason series— winning five of them. Only a stacked New York Yankees team in 2009 stood in the way of two consecutive World Series Championships. 

During that period, the Phillies have compiled a 20-9 postseason record. Doing the math, this represents an other-worldly .690 winning percentage against the best teams baseball had to offer. 

Speaking of the Bronx Bombers, only the Cliff Lee-led Texas Rangers lack recent playoff experience in the American League. The Minnesota Twins enjoyed a “cup of coffee” last season, exiting after three games. The Tampa Bay Rays, of course, were the victims of the Phillies in the 2008 Fall Classic. 

For the Phillies, the 2010 path to the World Series will not entail playoff tested teams unless the Rockies were to pull a rabbit out of a hat in the season’s final week. Actually, that scenario might require pulling a T-Rex out of a hat.

The World Series might be a different matter, but short of a 2009 rematch, three consecutive trips to the fall classic are likely to provide an edge over other opponents. 

As they prepare to make an appearance for the fourth consecutive year, it seems safe to count the cumulative postseason experience of this Phillies ball club as a key advantage. 

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Part 1 of 7

With the Philadelphia Phillies standing on the precipice of a fourth consecutive postseason berth, the focus of the team and fan base is two-fold. 

First, take care of business and nail down a fourth straight NL East crown. 

Second, take a look towards the end of year championship tourney to see how the Phillies stack up and are positioned for success. 

Should they do the expected and wind the magic number to zero, the Phillies appear better positioned for postseason success than anytime in their 127-year history. 

This assessment traces to seven key advantages that at this point appear to make them the favorites to be the last team standing— each of which will be detailed leading into the playoffs.  

Advantage 1: “The Big Three” Starting Pitchers

The most obvious and likely largest advantage is the Phillies top three starting pitchers. “The Big Three” or “H2O” as they have been billed present a formidable challenge for any opponent. 

Last year, with Hamels seemingly suffering from a season-long championship hangover, a mid-season trade brought a new ace in the form of Cliff Lee. The former Cy Young winner quickly won the hearts and minds of fans and teammates alike with a spectacular three month stint.  

Lee demonstrated pitching mastery as well as role model leadership qualities. Tremendous intensity, laser-like focus, and a fearless demeanor accompanied him to the mound every time he appeared on the lineup card. 

Fast forward to 2010. A much debated tandem of trades sent Lee to Seattle while netting a new ace in Roy Halladay in the offseason. 

Then, somewhat surprisingly, GM Ruben Amaro swung a huge deal prior to the mid-year trade deadline that brought Houston Astros stopper Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia. Despite a misleading 6-12 record at the time, scouts still believed the newest Roy still possessed dominating stuff. 

Meanwhile, after a slow start that resembled 2009, Hamels found his fastball, command, and Mojo. He also added a cutter to his repertoire that started to pay dividends. 

Not surprisingly, the heat of the pennant chase motivated Oswalt to offer up his best work of the season. His pre-trade losing record now stands at 13-13 after going 7-1 with a 1.76 ERA in a Phillies uniform. 

From day one, Halladay has pitched as advertised, racking up a 20-10 record with a 2.53 ERA. For good measure, Halladay threw in Major League Baseball’s 20th perfect game. 

Perhaps even more importantly, he has exhibited the same leadership qualities embodied by Lee that has a way of motivating an entire staff. 

And, clearly, each of “The Big Three” invokes a subtle challenge to one another through their own work.  

The five and seven-game formats of the postseason allow teams to go with a four or even three-man rotation. Obviously, this only serves to enhance the advantage of possessing three top tier starters. 

Another benefit is that as good as each pitcher is individually, they are arguably better together.  Rather than bearing the weight of “ace” status, the pressure is disbursed amongst the trio. 

In the postseason, that could bring a psychological lift to both pitcher and teammates by eliminating the  “must win” pressure.  The three should be “locked, loaded, and relaxed” knowing another ace is waiting in the wings. 

This season’s National League contenders will surely bring some good pitching, whether it’s the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, or Colorado Rockies. Matt Latos, Jon Garland, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, and Ubaldo Jiminez— all can be good to great. 

That being said, no trio tops that of the 2010 Phillies. Exactly what Ruben Amaro had in mind.    

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The playoff picture in the American League is all but set, with the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers simply dotting the eyes and crossing the tees on their way to October. 

There is a little drama left in the National League, as the Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres battle it out with the Atlanta Braves for the NL wild card and the NL West division title.

For the most part, we know who is going to be in the playoffs this season. But what about next season? Which teams that are on the outside looking in this year will be in good shape to make a move into October next season?

Let’s have a look.

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In the winter before the Phillies’ 2010 season, most of the talk revolved around Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, but one of the most exciting moves made by Ruben Amaro Jr. this off season was the acquisition of Placido Polanco.

On November 8th the Phillies declined third baseman Pedro Feliz’ 5.5 million dollar option for the 2010 season, and on December third signed free agent Polanco to a three year contract with a mutual option for the fourth year. Polanco brought with him two Gold Gloves, won in 2007 and 08, and a career fielding percentage of .990%, as well as a .303 career batting average over 13 seasons in the major leagues.

This is Polanco’s second tour of duty in Philadelphia. In July 2002 the Phillies picked up Polanco from the Cardinals as part of the Scott Rolen deal, and re-signed him in 2004 before sending him to Detroit in exchange for Ramon Martinez and Ugueth Urbina. The move proved to be an absolute steal for Detroit as Martinez has been back and forth between the minors and the bigs and Urbina is currently serving 14 years in a Venezuelan prison for two counts of attempted murder after an unfortunate machete incident.

Polanco proceeded to win two Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger award, and was MVP of the 2006 ALCS. He was also named to his first All-Star team in 2007—all in a Detroit uniform. But it was common knowledge that Polanco fell in love with the City of Brotherly Love, and was excited to return to the Phillies.

In Detroit Polanco played only one game at third base, mostly playing second in his time there, but he seems to have slipped right back into the role of an everyday third baseman, having committed only four errors this season. Superb defense is unsurprising from the veteran though—in 2007, Polanco set a major league record for second baseman, going 149 games without committing an error.

Polanco’s post season numbers are equally impressive. If the Phillies make it to the playoffs, he will bring with him a career .296 postseason batting average, which is somewhat watered down by an 0-17 slump in the 2006 World Series. He also has a .363 on base percentage in the playoffs, and will provide added experience to an already experienced infield.

All the stats, numbers and awards aside, one of the most touching things that I ever witnessed on a baseball field occurred on the night of July 9th, 2008 at Comerica Park. Placido Polanco and 99 other people received their U.S. citizenship before the game. As he stood out on the field in his uniform, the pride was evident on his face.

Philadelphia is lucky to have Placido Polanco back in the organization, and Polanco is happy to be back in Philadelphia. May it lead to many trips to the playoffs together.

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I’ve got some bad news for you, Cole Hamels.

You might be known as Hollywood to your teammates, you might be married to a Survivor star that got naked for some chocolate (not that I watched, of course), and you may have even spent the better part of 2009 posing as a Comcast spokesperson.

But to me? You’re boring.

In years past you were always good for five or six solid innings sprinkled with a ton of foul balls, some tough calls that made you angry at the umpire, followed by a few hanging change-ups that ended up becoming souvenirs.

Sure, you would win 10 to 15 games every year too, but either way it was something good.

For most of this season, however, you have developed this nasty habit of doing nothing more than taking the mound every five days with a Dirty Harry demeanor, always keeping your composure, and collecting quality outings like they were Silly Bandz.

Hamels was once again “boring” last night, throwing eight sparkling innings and giving up just one run, all the while looking every bit like the ace Phillies fans always hoped he would become. 

The “Phightins” now have a four-game lead over the Braves in the NL East, and despite being more banged up than Lindsey Lohan for most of the season, they are just one game behind the Yankees for the best record in all of baseball.

The biggest reason the Phillies are where they are? That would be Cole Hamels.

Not to diminish anything that Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Carlos Ruiz, or any of the Phillies’ big contributors has done this season, but it’s the lift they got from Hamels that has them on pace to finish with their best record since 1993.

A few stats to consider…

During the second half, Hamels has the National League’s second lowest ERA. 

Oh, and he is third in the NL in strikeouts, eighth in innings, and ninth in WHIP for the season.

Pretty solid, right? If your ace is putting up those numbers, your team will more than likely be playing meaningful games in September. If it’s your No. 2 doing that (or maybe even No. 3 depending on how you feel about Roy Oswalt), you have a team that’s going to have Philly fans watching deep into October.

With all those numbers, Hamels has been plagued by a lack of run support, with his record hovering at a pedestrian 12-10. In some ways, that is his most impressive stat.

Cole seems to have finally grasped what it means to be a major league pitcher, putting his team on his back every fifth day, supporting everyone else the other days. Hollywood seems to have finally realized that even the star needs a supporting cast, and he has mastered both roles.

During his Cy Young-worthy performance on Monday night, one thing stuck out to me, and it wasn’t the eight innings, six strikeouts, or just the one walk.

What stood out was the way Hamels exited the game. He handed the ball to Charlie Manuel, nodded to the crowd, and stopped by home plate to have a word with home plate umpire Mark Carlson.

“Thank you” was all that Hamels said, and with a smile he walked into the dugout.

It’s certainly not the first time a pitcher has acknowledged the home plate umpire, especially after he just pitched a gem in maybe the biggest non-playoff game of his career. But there is more to it than that.

Last season Carlson was behind the plate for a late June Hamels start. After getting rocked for four runs in 4.2 innings, Hamels threw a hissy fit on his way to the dugout and was tossed from the game by Carlson.

It was impossible to miss the difference last night.

Cole Hamels, the one-time wunderkind, the 2008 World Series MVP, the 2009 World Series quitter, has grown up.

As the season winds down, expect to see plenty more of the new “boring” Cole Hamels putting up numbers similar to last night– and if you are a Phillies fan, that’s a very good thing.

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When LHP Cole Hamels had his national coming-out party in the 2008 playoffs, I thought it would springboard him to a Cy Young-caliber year in 2009.

I predicted Hamels would win the National League Cy Young, and that prediction slapped me in the face like I would like to slap Braylon Edwards in the face for getting a DWI this morning.

Hamels suffered through a miserable 2009 campaign, going 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA (highest of his career), a 1.28 WHIP (highest of his career), and a whopping 9.6 hits/9 allowed. His head wasn’t in the game, and he just looked off the whole season.

2010 has been a different story for Hamels, and last night he continued his great season against the Atlanta Braves.

In a showdown for first place in the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Braves 3-1 behind eight extremely solid innings from Hamels. Hamels gave up just six hits, one run, and one walk and struck out six in the 117-pitch effort.

His changeup was awesome last night, as he kept it down in the zone and got Brave hitters to swing and miss on it 20 percent of the time, which was more than any other pitch he threw last night.

For Hamels, this is nothing new. Over his last five starts, he has absolutely been on fire. In his last five starts, Hamels is 5-0 with a 0.49 ERA and is holding batters to a .173 batting average.

Most importantly, Hamels’ confidence is back. He looked like a man possessed last night. He was quick to the plate, he looked in command, and he looked like a guy who knew he was going to win the game.

A stark contrast from last season.

Not only has Hamels been great over his last five starts, he has been great all season as well. Hamels has bounced back in 2010 with a 2.93 ERA, 9.2 K/9 (highest since 2006), and more ground balls than ever before (45 percent).

His velocity is back up on his fastball to 92 mph, and Hamels has even added a cutter in 2010. Perhaps watching Andy Pettitte throw his cutter against the Phillies in the World Series last year inspired Hamels. A cutter biting down and in is death to a right-handed batter.

With Hamels on a roll and Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt anchoring the top of the rotation, the Phillies right now have the best top three in baseball. I feel bad for whoever they are playing in the NLDS.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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To the fans of the Philadelphia Phillies, there is nothing more exhilarating than the last leg of any given season, especially when the playoffs are hanging in the balance

Oh wait, yes there is. How about dealing a crushing defeat to the team that is challenging you for first place, right?

The Phillies have masterfully put together one of the best Septembers in their recent history and have begun the process of claiming their place in yet another postseason by defeating the not so “Hot-lanta” Braves 3-1.

But it isn’t just this paramount defeat that has the Philadelphia faithful waving their rally towels, screaming their heads off in jubilation, and rising to their feet. Oh no—it’s been a collection of very key factors that are making an already deadly team even more dangerous.

The collective team effort out of the bullpen and the starting rotation, in combination with solid hitting and exceptional fielding, has this team and its fans salivating at the chance of not only returning to the postseason, but also getting another crack at the Fall Classic.

To make matters better—or worse, depending on your fanship—the Phillies will continue to unleash their three-headed monster on the Braves with Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt being the next two pitchers the Braves will have to face.

But isn’t that where it all starts for the Phillies?

Since acquiring Oswalt and Halladay, the front three of this rotation (Cole Hamels being the third musketeer) has been one of the most dominant trios in all of baseball.

Dating back to July 31st, this treacherous tricephaly has gone 19-6 with a 2.40 ERA (Note: I have not factored in Hamels’ ERA from last night only his win), and more importantly, in the month of September this three-headed monster is undefeated at a mark of 10-0.

But that’s not all.

They now have a four-game lead in the division, are the first team in the National League to reach 90 wins, and are on an eight-game winning streak, winning nine out of their last 10.

The fielding is nearly impenetrable, they’ve mixed in a healthy amalgamation of small ball and power hitting, and oh yeah, if anyone is still on the fence with Wilson Valdez, you can come down now…the kid’s solid as a rock…it’s okay, c’mon down.

So much to digest, right?

But despite this crazy flurry of success, the old adage remains superior: It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings.

The remainder of the season is divisional competition, and since the Phillies are public enemy number one, every team (including the Braves, which we’ll get to in a minute) will be trying their best to play spoiler.

The Phightin’ Phils will close out the week with against a Mets team that is horrible on the road, begin next week in Washington, whom the Phillies are 10-5 against, only to close the season in dramatic fashion with a final showdown against the Braves IN Atlanta.

Suffice to say, the last 11 games are very winnable, but the Phillies would be wise to tread lightly.

This is baseball at its best. This is the TRUE pulse of the original American Classic. Heck, this is the very lore that keeps the almighty NFL in the rear-view mirror for another couple of weeks, and you can bet your bottom dollar it’s only gonna get better from here.

So the only question that remains is this:

Are YOU getting that “Pheeling” yet?

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If they’re not playing for all the marbles the next few days at Citizens Bank Park, they’re playing for a lot of them.

The host Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves, owners of the best two records in the National League, open a three-game series tonight with the Phillies leading the Braves by three games.

The two teams will meet again in Atlanta October 1-3 to close the regular season after playing two series apiece against their other divisional rivals.

One has to think that the Phillies—barring a sweep at the hands of their Southern rivals—are in the driver’s seat for the NL East crown and an easier path (on paper) through the playoffs.

Taking two out of three will put them in great shape, and a sweep of the Braves will make the division theirs for sure, barring anything 1964-like. I’m not looking up to the heavens as I write this.

While both teams covet the division, the NL math says the following. With the Reds in great shape in the Central and the Cards unable to get going, five teams will be playing for three available playoff spots. In other words, any two of the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Padres, and Rockies will not make the playoffs. With a 2.5-game lead in the wild card, the Braves are in pretty good shape for that consolation prize.

So, how did the two teams get here, and what’s likely to occur at CBP the next few days?

The Braves, with extra motivation to give skipper Bobby Cox a memorable final season, have played inspired ball all year, even when faced with a bit of adversity.

Chipper Jones, their most recognizable player and one of the best players in baseball the last 15 years, has struggled through an injury-marred campaign in what may be the last season of his Cooperstown-worthy career. The former MVP has been on the shelf since August 11, freezing his decidedly non-chipper stats: .265/10/46.

No. 2 pitcher Derek Lowe has struggled with a 14-12 record and 4.12 ERA, while their other veteran, ace Tim Hudson, has had a fine season (16-8 with a 2.61 ERA).

It may be to the Phillies’ advantage that neither Lowe nor Hudson, having started the Braves’ last two wins at Citi Field, will not face the Phils this week.

Offensively, the Chipper-less Braves don’t really scare you, yet they have managed to score only 13 fewer runs than the mighty Phillies this year, a negligible difference over the course of 150 games. Their two most recognizable names remaining in the lineup have had solid years.

Jason (the J-Hey Kid) Heyward, who just turned 21, will finish his rookie season with close to 20 homers, 80 RBI, and 90 runs while drawing a lot of walks, as well as his first All-Star appearance.

Catcher Brian McCann, already a five-time All-Star at age 26, is a solid receiver who leads the Braves in both homers and RBI.

As you wonder who else would start for the Phillies among Braves regulars (and McCann and Heyward would be close calls over Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth), you may consider two other All-Stars: Omar (“Thanks for picking me, Cholly”) Infante, a glorified utility infielder who is hitting .337, and Martin Prado, a second baseman by trade who has manned Jones’ hot corner while again hitting over .300 and is in the process of scoring over 100 runs. But would you take those two over Chase Utley and Placido Polanco?

First baseman Derrek Lee came over at the trade deadline from the Cubs, and the veteran still plays a good first base and provides occasional pop—including a towering grand slam yesterday at Citi Field. Other than that, the lineup does not seem to do a whole lot, yet the Braves manage to score about as many runs as the Phils (and good for fourth in the NL). Just like the Phillies, they attack you until the third out of the ninth, and beyond if needed.

Manning the hill against the Phillies will be the hard to spell and usually hard to hit Jair Jurrjens, who missed 10 or 11 starts this season and has not yet matched his 2009 form of 14-10/2.64. Just 24, this guy is really good—when on.

Two other young pitchers, Tommy Hanson (23) and Mike (“I’m almost a”) Minor, 22, will get the ball in games two and three. Hanson has followed up a stellar rookie season with pretty good stats, including a 3.62 ERA, but has only a 10-11 record to show for it. Minor has shown lots of promise but is also saddled with a 5.84 ERA in his seven starts.

Bullpen, you ask? Our old friend, the sometimes combustible Billy Wagner, has been typically puzzling. The seven-time All-Star is 7-2 with a terrific 1.43 ERA and a microscopic 0.83 WHIP. He has saved 35 games yet has also blown seven. With all his faults, one would presumably trade the erratic post-2008 Brad Lidge for him unless one values clubhouse chemistry.

The Phillies, two-time defending league champions, find themselves once again as the team to beat in the National League. How they got here is also a tribute to their manager, Charlie Manuel, every bit as much as the 2010 Braves are a testament to Bobby Cox.

It seems like just yesterday that this columnist (one can be more of a “homer” on Bleacher Report) was praying for the Phillies to somehow get lucky enough to land a wild card spot and to have a relatively healthy team once they got there.

Witness that Wilson Valdez has played in more games this year (100) than team leader Jimmy Rollins (82) and has a higher batting average. Superstars Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have suffered stints on the DL, and the injury bug has probably hit the Phillies as hard as any team this year not playing in Fenway Park.

In a 2010 campaign that has seen the Phillies battered and bruised and sometimes sleepwalking, they somehow appear to be the class of the NL once again. The biggest reason? A three-headed monster (which I have nicknamed H2O) at the top of their pitching rotation, consisting of Cy Young Award front runner Roy Halladay, the improved, battle-tested Cole Hamels, and longtime Astros ace Roy Oswalt. All have been amazing since Oswalt gratefully accepted his get-out-of-mediocrity pass from Houston.

H2O is scheduled to start the three games of this showdown, and in that order. While it bodes well for the Phillies, one would be foolish to count out the Braves, and it would behoove all Phillies fans and baseball fans in general to watch all nine innings and prepare to watch an extra-inning game or two.

Knowing a sweep would virtually lock up the NL East for the hometown Fightins, the prediction here is that the Braves will find a way to win one of the games. If this holds true, the Phillies will extend their division lead to four, and the Braves will still be on top of the wild-card hunt.

In other words, the Phillies and Braves may very well face each other again even after October 3, and for even bigger marbles than this series offers.

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