Kuzul

Since the start of the NLDS, many insiders, beat writers and aspiring columnists all agreed that outfielder Jayson Werth was playing his last games in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform.

But now, the rumors suggest the Phillies could make a big push for Werth and actually pursue the Philadelphia mainstay.

Earlier this week, it was rumored that the Phillies had “zero chance” in bringing back Werth, but SI.com’s Jon Heyman has ‘Tweeted’ that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told the Philadelphia Inquirer he wants an answer soon, but that a quick deal is unlikely.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a couple of other little player puzzles to solve, such as their attempt to retain reliever Jose Contreras and their interest in reliever Joaquin Benoit as a possible insurance policy, but there is also another player puzzle in the mix that is directly related to Jayson Werth.

Top prospect, Domonic Brown.

In many respects, Brown is said to be a fine replacement for Jayson Werth. He’s just as tall, just as fast, seemingly just as good of an outfielder, and almost as good as a hitter.

But he isn’t Jayson Werth.

In my personal opinion, I can’t see the Phillies parting ways with Werth so long as they can stave off his junkyard dog agent Scott Boras and come to an agreeable deal.

What I can see, however, is Domonic Brown being brought up and kept in the dugout as an insurance policy for fading outfielder Raul Ibanez.

But that’s just speculation on my part.

Think of it this way: Raul Ibanez is declining and becomes a free agent in 2011. If the Phillies had an opportunity to construct an outfield with Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown and Jayson Werth, don’t you think they would try?

I know I would if I worked for the organization.

In addition to that being my lineup, I would have Ibanez as a bench player and possible DH in inter-league play, and solid trade bait at the end of the 2011 season, with a free spot to possibly bring up John Mayberry.

The Phillies have already admitted to needing a left-handed reliever more than anything, but addressing the outfield situation is also a top priority. Werth does have a nice situation in Philadelphia, in a very hitter-friendly park that he is already acclimated to.

There isn’t a zero chance Jayson Werth could stay in Philly, but the clock is ticking and just about everyone wants to see a resolution to this ongoing saga.

Hopefully, this will prove to be a “Werthy” pursuit, and we’ll see the scruffy-looking outfielder in a Phillies uniform for years to come.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When Gus Zernial of the Chicago White Sox and Roy Smalley of the Chicago Cubs won the inaugural Dave Kingman Award way back in 1950, the level of analysis that went into the award was pretty primitive. 

Did they guy hit a lot of home runs? If so, did he have a really low batting average and also a strangely low RBI total? 

Okay, good. Here’s your Dave Kingman Award. 

As baseball enjoyed its statistical revolution of the last 30 years, the Kingman analysis became greatly enhanced. To home runs and on-base percentage we were able to add runs created, OPS, OPS+, adjusted batting runs, WAR, and a host of other offensive statistics, to say nothing of the tacitly present defensive factor, measured by fielding runs, plus/minus, ultimate zone rating, and defensive WAR. 

Indeed, the statistical revolution has brought us into a new era of Dave Kingman analysis, which is really great, because there have certainly been season in which the Kingman candidates have abounded, and simple reference to home runs and on-base percentage haven’t given us the necessary information we’ve needed to parse the Pedro Felizes and the Chris Youngs. 

Where we’ve needed more, we’ve gotten it. 

And so it is, then, that we turn our attention to the 2010 Dave Kingman Award, with an eye towards determining, once again, who in Major League Baseball more than any other player was truly doing the least with the most. 

Let’s have a look: 

Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks 

Reynolds will perpetually be a Kingman candidate because of his traditionally high home run and strikeout rates, combined with his traditionally low batting average. This season was no different for the Diamondbacks third baseman, as he hit 32 home runs, but managed only a .198 batting average with 211 strikeouts. 

After becoming the first player ever to strike out 200 times in 2008, he became the first player ever to do it twice in 2009, and in 2010 became the first player ever to do it three times. 

Reynolds was particularly bad in 2010, however. After driving in 102 RBI and scoring 98 runs in 2009, those numbers dropped to 85 and 79. He also had a 150 hits in 2009, and that number dropped to a shocking 99 hits in 596 plate appearances in 2010. The adage regarding strikeouts being just as detrimental to a player as any other out does not apply, it would seem, to Mark Reynolds. 

Brother needs to put some bat on some balls. 

Nevertheless, Reynolds remains just outside of being considered a Kingman clone for a simple reason: in 145 games, Reynolds took 83 walks in 2010, which raised his OBP a surprising 122 points above his batting average. 

There is value there, and while it is not great, it is enough to keep him out of the inner Kingman circle. 

Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays 

Everything we just said about Mark Reynolds pretty much goes for Carlos Pena. He had the same curious combination of below .200 average and above .300 OBP, he hit a shocking number of home runs for a guy who doesn’t seem to make contact with the ball all that often, and he finished with fewer than 100 hits in 144 games. 

Pena is also a pretty bad defensive player, though this is not his reputation. Nevertheless, in this season, he is too good to win the Kingman. 

Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays 

It is simply unbelievable that Adam Lind could have consecutive seasons as disparate as the ones he had in 2009 and 2010. Lind went from 35 home runs, 114 RBI, and a .305/.370/.562 to 23 home runs, 72 RBI, and a .237/.287/.425 without even seeing a significant decrease in playing time. He scored almost 40 fewer runs in 2010 (93 vs. 57) and had 44 fewer base hits. 

I mean, what in the name of Jonny Gomes 2006 is going on here? 

In any other season, Lind would likely have walked away with the Dave Kingman Award handily with 23 home runs and a .287 on-base percentage. Throw in his -8.65 adjusted batting runs (second worst for any major leaguer with over 20 home runs) and his 0.1 WAR (wow), and he’d be a shoo-in. 

As it is, he isn’t even the best Kingman candidate in the American League, nor is he the best candidate (spoiler alert) on his own team…

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles 

There are certain things that baseball fans never understand, certain pieces of conventional wisdom that all baseball insiders follow but baseball outsiders can’t comprehend. 

For me, this is that thing: why is it that from time to time a team with no hope of making the playoffs will have a veteran player drastically over-achieve their career performance during the first half of the season and not immediately sell high on that player. 

This year we saw that with two players: when Carlos Silva came out of the gate lights out for the Chicago Cubs, winning his first eight games, the Cubs sat idly by patting themselves on the back for having found such a diamond in the rough. 

Even when it became clear that the Cubs season was going to be a train-wreck (I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say mid-May even though, for me, it was mid-March) and they were going to be dealing some players, they held on to Carlos Silva like he was found money. 

Had it been me, as soon as he got to 5-0 and I would have been on the horn with every general manager in baseball offering to give him up to any team willing to take his salary off my hands. When a guy like Silva (career WHIP: 1.397) comes out and looks like the next Derek Lowe for two months, you Sell Sell Sell!!! 

The other player we saw that with in 2010 was Ty Wigginton. Hey look, what do I know? There is a chance that when the 30 year old Wigginton came out and hit .288 with a .934 OPS over the first two months of the season with 13 home runs, 32 RBI, and 23 runs scored on the worst offensive team in baseball, it meant that he had finally figured things out. 

Had it been me, though, again I would have been on the horn with every team in baseball that needed a corner infielder for the fourth, fifth, or sixth spot in their lineup. If you think the Orioles couldn’t have gotten a tasty Double-A pitching prospect, or even a middle infield defensive specialist, in return for the hot hitting Wigginton from a desperate playoff-cusp team, you’re crazy. 

And what, possibly, were the Orioles holding him for? Was the 2011 season going to be built around this guy? 

As it was, the Orioles held on to Wigginton, and enjoyed the business end of a four month stretch from June 1st to the end of the season in which he hit .231 with a .640 OPS and nine home runs the rest of the way. Well play, Mr. Angelos, well played. 

Not only did the Orioles not get anything in return for two months of Wigginton hotness, they also found themselves in possession of a Kingman candidate. 

Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs 

The 2010 National League Dave Kingman Award, and 2010 Major League Baseball Kingman Finalist, must be Aramis Ramirez of the Chicago Cubs. 

Not only did this guy suck on both sides of the ball, but he also $16.75 million to do it. 

As they say in melodramatic action movies when either an infectious disease or an object from space threatens to kill everyone on the planet: 

My. God. 

That Aramis Ramirez didn’t suffer one of the worst full seasons of all time is a testament to his second half. We here at BaseballEvolution.com have an Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award for the player who tails off the most after a great first half; in 2010, Ramirez was the bizarro Alex Gonzalez. 

On July 8 of this season, just days before the All Star Break, Ramirez had a .195 batting average with a .254 OBP and a .350 slugging percentage. To that point, through 59 games, A-Ram had nine home runs, 30 RBI, 18 walks and 52 strikeouts. 

Aramis was downright respectable in the second half, though, hitting 16 home runs, 13 doubles, and a triple while batting .285 with an .880 OPS the rest of the way. 

Imagine: despite that performance, he was still our Dave Kingman Award Finalist for the National League. The reason why is simple enough: on the season as a whole, Ramirez finished with the third fewest adjusted batting runs of any player with over 20 home runs in baseball, and fewest in the National League, with -7.93. He enjoyed (or didn’t enjoy) a negative WAR at -0.7, and his .294 on-base percentage was still terrible. 

Indeed, it was a year of which Dave Kingman would have been proud. 

Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays 

Ah, Aaron Hill. I hate to dog an LSU Tiger like this, but Aaron Hill’s 2010 season was a historic one from a “doing the least with the most perspective.” 

Hill’s conventional stats are bad enough on their own to justify giving him the 2010 Kingman Award. Combined with his 26 home runs, Hill had 70 runs, 68 RBI, 22 doubles, 108 hits, and 41 walks. His batting average was a ridiculous .205, and his on-base percentage followed suit at .271. His OPS was a terrible .665, good for a 79 OPS+. 

His more advanced stats were also terrible: 0.8 WAR, -17.5 adjusted batting runs, and 56 runs created. 

But when you go deeper, you realize how terrible these numbers truly are for two reasons. 

First, in 2010 Hill became the sixth player ever to hit more than 25 home runs and have less than -15 batting runs (Hill went 26/-17.5). The other five were Tony Armas (1983), Vinny Castilla (1999), Tony Batista (2003 and 2004), and Jeff Francoeur (2006). 

Important, Armas and Bastista (twice) both won the Kingman Award in their respective years, while Francoeur was the runner-up, to Pedro Feliz, in the controversial 2006 voting. 

But wait… there’s more. 

In 2010, Aaron Hill also became the second player in the history of baseball to hit more than 25 home runs and have an OPS+ under 80, joining only Batista in 2003 (who somehow managed to go 26/73 in 670 plate appearances). 

And there it is: the essence of what it means to win the Dave Kingman Award. A rare combination of home run power and overall valuelessness. At least by this standard, Aaron Hill had the second best Kingman-clone season of all time. 

And for this reason, Aaron Hill is the 2010 Major League Baseball Dave Kingman Award Winner.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

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The MLB season is over and the offseason has officially begun. Some teams will look to improve, while others simply hope to keep the talent they have.

Many player will be on the move this offseason, perhaps a Hall of Fame shortstop, a notable pitching ace, or maybe one of the league’s best sluggers.

Regardless, always remember that these are bold predictions, and in honor of the title that they shall be.

Begin Slideshow

Dear Jayson and Ruben,

As you well know, the past few years have been a very special time for the Philadelphia Phillies and their loyal fanbase.  

Four division titles, three trips to the NLCS, two National League Pennants, and a World Series ring is the type of remarkable success that has not been common place in this city.

Every game is a playoff atmosphere with standing room only crowds filling arguably the best venue in all of sports. 

Baseball pundits and fans have debated whether this is the best era in team history—or even in Philly sports altogether. The “dynasty” word was being tossed around pretty freely, but regrettably has been shelved for now with the Phillies premature postseason exit this year. 

I think you could both agree that the Phillies still have some unfinished business. 

Ruben, it surely won’t help the cause if Jayson is wearing a different uniform next season.

Some argue that top prospect Domonic Brown is waiting in the wings, and that this is part of baseball’s natural order.  Although he showed some flashes, Brown’s three-month tour with the big club highlighted that he’s probably not quite ready for prime time. 

And importantly, he swings from the left-side. After the way the Giants lined up lefties in the NLCS to shut down the Phillies left leaning lineup, tipping the scales further in that direction clearly wouldn’t improve the team’s championship aspirations. 

Left field in 2012 sounds just about right. 

A lineup with Brown replacing Jayson in 2011 would likely have Charlie Manuel asking for volunteers to move to the right-side to balance things out like a US Airways Express flight attendant.  

Besides providing an important right-handed threat amongst the left-handed sluggers, Jayson contributes to winning in so many other ways.  

His athleticism, instincts and rocket-launcher arm make him one of the best right-fielders in baseball. He gets on base a lot, and then possesses the speed, aggressiveness, and hustle to freely move around them.  

Did I mention that Jayson is the National League’s all-time postseason leader in home runs? For a team setting its annual goal to win it all, isn’t having proven big game performers critically important? 

He is a true gamer whose total contributions sometimes only show up on the stat sheets in the win column. Additionally, keying in on a non-Sabermetric stat, he ranks very high in “cool” factor 

Jayson had it right when he said a few weeks ago, “Why mess with a winning formula?”

And, Jayson, it is very doubtful that you can replicate the electric atmosphere of Citizen’s Bank Park, not to mention the tremendous camaraderie and chemistry with your teammates.  

Speaking of the baseball stadium, wouldn’t you agree that it is pretty much ideal for a player of your skills?

You are a perfect fit for this club and this city. And they are a perfect fit for you. 

Why would you want to mess with a winning formula? Why not choose to remain as a key component of something very special that will be recognized in this town for generations to come?

You will be financially set for life with your next contract— here or elsewhere. Why accept anything less than the ideal situation— namely Philadelphia. 

I suspect the past few years have been among, if not the best times in your life. Why walk away from more of the same for a little extra money?

Wouldn’t you miss all your close friends in The Bank’s right field bleachers? Why risk a case of writer’s cramp sending out postcards to stay in touch?

Let’s face it, Ruben and Jayson, you need each other. And, Phillies teammates and fans need you to need each other.

So, how can we work this out? 

Jayson, although it might not be in your agent’s DNA, perhaps you could whisper in his ear to negotiate nicely with the Phillies because they are like family. Tell him that RAJ didn’t really intend to make you look bad when he mentioned that RISP stuff. 

After all, didn’t the Phillies take a risk on you when others wouldn’t and then provide the perfect surroundings for you to flourish? That sounds like family to me.   

And, how about telling that agent you’re up for a hometown discount?  

Ruben, think about how difficult it would be to fill the gaping hole in the lineup and in right when it comes time to negotiate. 

Remember, too, there’s nothing wrong with being creative. A trade here, a future expiring contract there, a deferred payment here, an advertising rate bump there— and you might be able to sell it up the line.  

Consider also that Jayson had something to do with those 100-plus consecutive sellouts. Fans are willing to pay to see winning teams, especially those comprised of winning, likable players with a work ethic. 

He’s not going to come cheap, but isn’t he worth it? (Or, if you prefer, Werth it?) Proven five-tool players are hard to come by— lets not let him go the way of Cliff Lee.  

Surely, seeing the Giants players dancing on the field last week has to make both of you want to take another crack at getting it right next year. Heck, a few more rings could fit on those hands, so why stop there?

Can’t we do this together? Lets finish business the way it was intended. 

Best Regards,

Gary

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Expect a healthy dose of torture tonight. 

After last night’s offensive firestorm, where the San Francisco Giants ran up a week’s worth of runs in one game, tonight should be a nice reversion to the tense, nail-biting and familiar mean. 

Cue “The Machine” and bring on the thumbscrews. 

The ability of the Giants to persevere in ridiculously tight matchups, has generated a fan base mirroring the same attributes.  Fans who can maintain a pure hope for success during a one-run lead and cheer for their team just as vociferously during a two-run deficit. 

This purity within the San Francisco Giants fan base is one that I hope will be maintained and one which other notable fan bases have, unfortunately, replaced with complaining, excuses and an air of expectation.   

When I read the East Coast press endlessly describing the “luck” that went into the ascension of the “misfit” San Francisco Giants to the 2010 World Series, the more I just see a sniffling bully off in the corner, trying to explain his black eyes.   

Sometimes luck has nothing to do with it and you actually lose because the other guy was just more talented.  Not because he had a “good day” or had a bunch of “retreads” or because you “choked” or because you “lost” the series, but just because he beat you four times before you could do it to him.   

The stories portending a “ratings implosion” and “unwatchable World Series”, ring more of pure jealousy than of any kind of objective journalism.  

Did last night’s game strike anyone as unwatchable?  

And to further suggest that just because many sulking East Coast fans will not be tuning into the World Series, and that fact somehow lessens the achievement, is just sour grapes at it’s highest level.     

Nothing has come easy for the San Francisco Giants or their fans.  We’ve had line drives, earthquakes and a manager who liked to give out early souvenir balls.  As such, the loyal Giants supporters are the furthest thing from an expectant fan base and ones who will hopefully maintain that attribute, if continued success chooses to shine on this team.Fans who will be living every game like a gift versus an assumption.  

If you have ever followed the San Francisco 49ers, you are aware of the dangers that routine success can breed.

Fighting that birthright urge to place your beloved team above all others, solely on their previous, historic successes is difficult.  It remains an intense struggle to keep your objectivity and fight that temptation, even in the face of blatant empirical evidence.  It becomes very easy to close your eyes to reality and delude yourself into thinking that that your champions “just got unlucky” again.

To stubbornly refuse to give credit to the teams that beat yours. Even when all objective reason, in the form of mounting losses and aged stars, points clearly to the fact that the current team you worship only shares the same uniform colors as the one that wrote the legend. 

Fighting this is not as easy as wearing a fake beard to a game and cheering on Steve Perry in the Club Level as he leads “Don’t Stop Believin’” (which was awesome) or making a few “Ross Boss” signs.  The haze of endless winning seasons, multiple playoff appearances and championships, is where the real danger of becoming a pouting supporter lurks. 

Sometimes, you just get beaten up by the unassuming drama geek with a dynamite right-right-left-left pitching combination.  You can get watery eyes and bellyache when that happens or you can give credit where credit is due. 

Granted, maybe you didn’t see the punch coming in your cocoon of perceived dominance, but that happens in life—and it just happened to your team.   

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Of all the major pro sports leagues, Major League Baseball’s postseason is the least valid at crowning a champ.  This is for a number of reasons.  There is good news, however. Many positive tweaks to the playoff structure have already been discussed.  Time to shed light on just what is missing, and what actions should be taken.

Baseball season is by far the longest of any of the four major sports.  Most teams, barring rainouts, will slog through 162 contests.  Hockey and Basketball teams play 82 games in contrast.  (In fact, even with half the number of games, NBA commissioner David Stern is considering a shortened schedule for his league.)  It’s a pretty large sample survey from which to judge the quality of a team.  It’s too large, in fact.  

This becomes painfully obvious when you realize how quickly half the teams in the postseason will last.  Imagine playing all those games and then getting swept in the first round after three games.  All those must-win games, the pennant chase and the buildup. Gone after a weekend.  

So one major flaw becomes obvious at this point.  To be successful in the regular season, the team must be built for consistency.  Pitching staffs generally need quality out of four or five starters, two or three set-up men and a closer.  The lineup needs at least a few sluggers, high on-base percentage players and usually at least one speedster on the basepaths.  

This is a recipe for long-term success, and after 162 games, suddenly these important regular season qualities lose much of their value.

Once the first round begins, you can throw them out the window.  It’s a best-of-five series after all.  Most of the time, the losing team will not even get a whole turn of their rotation.  It would seem to me that the team built for regular season depth would not even get to showcase that strength.  The criteria suddenly changes.  Forget a deep 5 man rotation, a three man rotation with 2 star hurlers will get you further.  

Doesn’t it seem a little too quick to send a playoff team home after five games at most?

It’s even worse when you consider how many upsets have taken place.  Don’t get me wrong, upsets are what gives sports their luster many times.  Upsets are not as exciting if they are so easy to come by.  In baseball,  too many times the fan is left feeling cheated.  Many exciting and talented teams have been sent off to the golf course without even getting a chance to play everyone that contributed during the year. 

There is a way to ease this issue.  Make every round a seven-game series.  Obviously there are some logistics to work out in that case.  I will get into that a little further down.  

The NHL and NBA already have implemented this structure.  And in those leagues, the same players compete every night.  If any of the sports had an argument for a shortened first round, it would be them since you are essentially showcasing the same matchup multiple times.  

In baseball, there are completely new pitchers each day. It makes for a different feel for each game.  And in the current format, there are only eight playoff teams.  That means that first round matchups are never duds on paper, since even top seeds vs. bottom seeds have more parity than other sports with double the teams in the postseason. That’s why baseball doesn’t get redundant in October.   

Another issue that troubles me is how the rotations are set.  If your team is still fighting for a playoff spot in the last few games, they will most likely not be able to give themselves the matchups they want when the postseason arrives.  Many people have argued that teams that have clinched earlier should get that advantage.  Let’s take a closer look.

This year, the Rays and the Yankees fought for the AL East crown to the wire.  These teams also had the two best records in the league.  It doesn’t matter if the Rangers clinched their weak divisions much earlier; the two best teams still had work to do.  

Why should the Rangers, who had a weaker record in a weaker division, get the advantage of setting their rotation while the two higher quality teams in a tougher division could conceivably be stuck with whoever is rested enough?

This would not be such a significant factor if the first round became a best-of-seven, as all of the pitchers would most likely get a chance somewhere in the series.  There should be a three-day break before the playoffs begin.  That will allow all of the teams to load up and truly play the best against the best, rather than just who is available each day.  

A guaranteed two or three-day period between further playoff series should be instituted as well, for the same reasons.  Obviously, as it currently stands, there would be scheduling conflicts.  If these changes were in place, any other off-days that aren’t designed for travelling should be eliminated.  That way, the teams cannot just skip pitchers.  It would be a lot more like the regular season for which these teams are built.

Changing the season from 162 games to 154 would be the best catalyst to make these sorts of improvements.  People always have a little hesitation when this idea is brought forth.  Most of the time they are concerned about the record books and how to judge new achievements.  It would be a pretty safe bet to say that if there were only 154 games in a season, then Barry Bonds could feel really good about keeping the home run record.  

But that’s just the point. Many of those records are tarnished anyway.  Bonds was an obvious steroid case, as well as many others in the last 20 years.  We are now at a point in baseball where we need to be honest with ourselves and admit that all records are subject to fallacy.  

Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs in only 154 games.  Remember that many felt Roger Maris was a fraud since his 61 homers came in 162 games.  There is just is no consistency. Once baseball moves on from this naive notion, things can be streamlined.  

With only 154 games, there can be a pause to transition from the regular season to postseason. While pitchers are resting up, Major League Baseball can use the time to build some serious media hype.  Imagine all those Game 1’s with staff aces facing off against each other.   That’s drama.  They will also be available for at least another game if the series goes long.  Another plus.  More superstars equal more ratings.  

Baseball is a sport whose outcomes many times are affected by inches.  Sometimes the difference between a winner and a loser can come down to a lucky bounce.  The more games that are played with the most consistent preparation are a better measure of who is deserving of the title.  

Don’t worry though.  Upsets will still be plentiful.  The only difference (with the new rules in effect) is that upsets will seem much more significant.  To grant a much higher degree of validity to the World Series Champion, these changes would go a long way. After that maybe we can get rid of the designated hitter as well, since both leagues should play by the same rules (especially in the playoffs).  But for right now, this would be a major improvement.

-Follow me on Twitter (@ChiBdm)

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Cheating, betting, and scandals have been a part of sports ever since the beginning, whether it’s to gain a competitive advantage over an opponent, rake in some extra cash, or a temptation that was just too hard to resist.

The only thing worse than all of those things, though, is lying about it. Sooner or later the truth will come out, and when it does, get ready.

These 10 sports figures lied to millions of fans, and are worthy of being named the top 10 liars in sports history.

Begin Slideshow

Without the benefit of a Farmer’s Almanac or sophisticated meteorological computer modeling, it is clear that it will be a long, cold winter in Philadelphia.  

The San Francisco Giants ensured that when they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies last night, wresting away the National League Pennant that the Phillies had held for two years.  Regrettably, the Phillies helped the Giants’ cause, continuing their trend of failing to generate runs in the postseason.  

Last season’s playoffs star hitter Ryan Howard stood frozen, unable to pull the trigger on a Brian Wilson 3-2 cutter that barely touched the bottom edge of the strike zone. After a pregnant pause that suspended an entire fanbase, home plate umpire Tom Hallion rung up Howard to end the Phillies’ two-year NL reign. 

That strikeout, which left two runners stranded, will be replayed for generations to come. It aptly symbolizes the Phillies’ disappointing 2010 postseason performance. 

Despite their high profile and seemingly high power offense, the Phillies simply could not push runs across the plate. They could not come through with big hits or even score runners from third. All they needed to do was put a ball in play, and they failed. 

The night started with great promise, as the Phillies seemed to finally find their missing mojo. Chase Utley’s ringing double into the right field corner and Jayson Werth’s warning track sacrifice fly gave them a 2-0 lead in the first.  

Then, it was radio silence the rest of the way. The Phillies reverted back to 2010 form, unable to push another run across the dish with the entire season on the line.

The first inning evoked deja vu that hearkened back to the 2008 and 2009 championship teams. It appeared as if the bats had broken out of their slumber and the Phillies were primed to play to expectations. 

2010 postseason reality quickly kicked back in, however, when a “shoulda-woulda-coulda” top half of the third allowed the Giants to even the score. Utley whiffed on grounder that appeared within his reach. Shane Victorino couldn’t quite hang on to make a Willie Mays-esque catch. Placido Polanco threw away a swinging bunt.  

Then, a promising bottom half of the inning began with a walk and yet another hit batter. After Utley flipped the ball back to the mound after it drilled him just below the neck, Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez went ballistic. 

Isn’t the batter who took the heater in the spine the one entitled to be annoyed? 

Sanchez’s actions touched off a bench-clearing scrum that allowed valuable time for Jeremy Affeldt to get loose in the pen. After the field cleared, Bruce Bochy replaced the rattled Sanchez with Affeldt, who promptly extinguished the rally.  

The Giants’ hurlers worked themselves into trouble over the balance of the game, but Phillies hitters could never cash in.

The Phillies seemed ready to break through with two outs in the fifth, when Howard lined a double to left center with Rollins on first. Third base coach Sam Perlozzo somewhat shockingly held Rollins on what would have been a close play–one in which the speedy shortstop typically crosses the plate with the certainty of death and taxes.   

In the sixth, the Phils were knocking on the door again when Raul Ibanez doubled to left and was moved over by a Carlos Ruiz bunt. After working a 2-0 count, pinch hitter Ben Francisco missed a couple hittable pitches before taking a called third strike. The looping curve ball seemed to be high and wide, but as Howard discovered later, with two strikes, swinging at anything close was advisable in this game. 

After both teams took turns leaving men on base for a long stretch, Juan Uribe jumped on Ryan Madson’s first pitch fastball with two outs in the eighth and lofted a high fly ball to right that had just enough carry to reach the seats. The Citizens Bank Park crowd was suddenly silenced as the Giants took a 3-2 lead. 

Bochy called on Thursday’s losing pitcher Tim Lincecum. After surrendering singles to Victorino and Ibanez with one out, his night was done. Brian Wilson trotted in with his crazed closer act and got extremely lucky when Carlos Ruiz lined into a double play. 

Brad Lidge loaded the bases in the ninth but got Wilson to bounce out to maintain the one run deficit. The stage was set for one last ditch effort to rally to keep the Phillies season alive. 

With one out, Rollins walked, but it was erased on Polanco’s fielder’s choice.  Utley worked another walk, putting the Phillies 2010 season into the hands of their cleanup hitter, who had yet to record an RBI in either playoff series. 

Howard lingered in disbelief after being rung up, while Wilson celebrated himself with his contrived signature ritual. Giants players rushed to the center of the field to celebrate their large upset and a trip to the “Fall Classic.” 

The winningest team in baseball, the odds-on favorite and the Phillies’ most talented team ever, had fallen short of its goal and expectations. 

A season so full of promise was prematurely over. A marvelously talented and highly appealing team was exiting the big stage before the final act.  

All that remains is a cruel winter of wondering what went wrong and what could have been for the Phillies players, coaches, front office, and fans.

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Ryan Howard‘s biggest contributions to the Phillies so far this postseason has been his celebratory high-fives to his teammates after they get driven in by Placido Polanco . 

On the brink of elimination, Philadelphia need first basemen Ryan Howard to wake up from his eight-game slumber and re-energize a dormant Phillies’ offense. 

Since the postseason began, Howard (.276, 31 HRs, 108 RBIs) has accounted for only one of the Phillies’ 29 postseason runs, a number that must change if Charlie Manuel’s club wants to become just the eleventh team in MLB history to overcome a 3-1 series deficit.

Hobbled by an ankle injury that kept him sidelined for most of August, Howard came back strong in September for the Phillies displaying the power (seven HRs) and patience (.405 OBP, his highest of any month in ’10) that we were accustomed to. 

Despite coming into October on a hot streak, the former National League MVP  hasn’t driven in a single run during the playoffs and is hampering the Philadelphia offense because of his inability to come through at the plate with runners on base. In his 30 at-bats this postseason, Howard has struck out an inexcusable 14 times and left 12 runners stranded on the base paths in that time, despite a decent .286 average.  

Contrary to his recent slump, the 2009 NLCS MVP is usually a reliable run-producer come playoff time, notching seven home runs and 27 RBIs in just 32 postseason games before this year.

Devoid of their main power threat, the Phillies have had to rely on small-ball strategy (10 steals and six sacrifices in October thus far) and power pitching for success. 

Facing a rested and ready Jonathan Sanchez on Saturday, Howard will be counted on to pick up the pace at home against the Giants. Although he is only 3-for-14 lifetime facing Sanchez, Howard did have two hits and a walk against him in Game 2, inspiring confidence in his ability to get good wood off the lefty flame-thrower.  

The Phillies remain a veteran team, who will not go quietly this October, despite teetering on the edge of eradication.

Desperate for a win, and a World Series rematch with the Yankees, the fate of the Phillies rests in hands of Ryan Howard to pull out a Game 6 victory in Philadelphia.    

Jesse Paguaga is a regular contributor to Baseball Digest. He writes as an intern on the Bleacher Report website. Jesse writes for Gotham Baseball, along with Gotham Hoops and Gotham Gridiron. He can be reached at Paguaga@usc.edu and can be found on Facebook and on Twitter http://twitter.com/#!/@jpags77

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The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies avoided elimination by winning Game 5, as both teams trailed 3-1 in their respective series. 

The New York Yankees down travel down south to play the Texas Rangers in Game 6 of ALCS Friday night.  If the Yankees can stay alive, Game 7 will take place on Saturday night. 

The San Francisco Giants must head back east to play the Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park in Game 6 of the NLCS.  The game will either be played on Saturday afternoon or night, depending on the outcome of Game 6 of the ALCS. 

In order for there to be a rematch of the 2009 World Series, New York and Philadelphia must win three games in a row (two now).  Both teams have a pretty good shot to force a Game 7, but the Phillies have a better chance of advancing to the 2010 World Series. 

Here are five reasons why the Philadelphia Phillies are more likely than the New York Yankees to comeback and advance to the World Series.  

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