Kuzul

C’mon Philadelphia, please put down the Michael Vick Kool-Aid…just for a second. We’re talkin’ baseball right now.

For years, the Phillies have relied heavily on their “Big Three” to win games; the “Big Three,” of course, being the trio of homegrown studs (Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard) the Phillies have featured in their daily lineup for the past several years .

Sure, that “Big Three” is still pretty good. But over the final two months of the 2010 campaign, the Phillies have made it to the brink of the postseason on the strength of a different kind of big three: the kind of big three that occupies their starting rotation.

Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt.  Game-set-match.

That three-man rotation is pretty good. But is it the greatest 1-2-3 rotation punch in Phillies history? Let’s count down and find out.

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Much can be said about a team that makes things happen amidst a pennant race, and a lot can be said about those who don’t. What can we say about the difference between the Philadelphia Phillies and their competition? Well, there are still 15 games left to be played out.

The Phils, nonetheless, look just the way they are supposed to: defeating a pesky team, in the Florida Marlins for the second night in a row. Meanwhile, 650 miles down I-95 the Atlanta Braves, who have been hanging on to the hopes of grabbing first place to gain the home field advantage in the postseason, lost 6-0 to the MLB‘s version of the Detroit Lions in the heat of a pennant race—at home.

While these games can certainly be negated in the head-to-head matchup, this past Tuesday night could prove to be the turning point in how this race plays out.

The Phillies have now, with this win over the Florida Marlins in Miami, taken a two game lead in the National League East and appear poised to pull away with an old-fashioned pennant race-like victory.

Tuesday night’s victory wasn’t just a victory, it came with very positive signs for Philadelphia including:

• Thirteen of the 22 outs Cole Hamels recorded were strikeouts, the most any Phillies pitcher has had in 2010.
• Brad Lidge saved the one-run victory with a 16-pitch, 1-2-3 ninth inning.
• Hamels’ 1.79 ERA in 12 starts is tops in the league.

And to cap it off, Hamels and Roy Halladay are tied for second in the NL for strikeouts this season.

It’s all setting up to meet the inevitable conclusion, a third straight NL pennant flag hanging up at the bank in 2011.

This would be the first time the Phillies have ended the regular season with the leading record in the NL since 1950, when they finished two games ahead of the Brooklyn Dodgers.

The Phillies are demonstrating, without Jimmy Rollins, that their biggest attribute isn’t within the roster. It isn’t within the big numbers either, nor is it within the accolades that accompany those things. Rather, it’s the huge muscle that resides underneath their rib cage.

Definitely something that the Braves possess also, but in the heat of a pennant race, you almost always have to stick with the group who have been through the fire and know how to get there.

It’s the same difference as, if you needed to get to Anchorage, Alaska would you trust a young, talented, geography teacher or a geography teacher who has been there twice in the last two summers?

While, you may trust both, to a degree, you almost always have to take the experience.

The Braves are only a game up on the San Francisco Giants and are better suited, at this point, holding off the Giants until they get the opportunity to go head-to-head against the two-time National League champion, Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies move on to play the Washington Nationals in a weekend series at home, while the fading Atlanta Braves head to New York to take on the New York Mets before the two square off in the first of two series that have major playoff implications.

More coverage is to follow tomorrow. We’ll put a finger on the pulse of both teams.

The Braves have a lot of work to do.  My guess is, they better find a defibrillator quick, because losing to the Nats twice, in a situation such as this, is close to flat lining.

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Six days left until the biggest series of the year in the National League.

The Phillies official website reports that the Phillies pitching coach, Rich Dubee, may be looking to deliver a knock out blow next week when facing the Atlanta Braves. Given the recent awakening of the Phillies’ bats, that doesn’t sound like too bad an idea.

The Phillies crushed the Florida Marlins 11-4 on Monday, September 13th to retain their one-game lead in the NL East, while the Braves held up their end, beating the Washington Nationals 4-0.

With just over two weeks left in this season, and six games remaining between the two NL East teams, it’s pretty obvious that the race to first place will all come down to the head-to-head match-up.

The Braves, known to be a resilient team, are going to have much to contend with come these final games down the stretch because, of the six games remaining, it’s quite possible the Phillies will pitch their aces in five of them.

All it would take is for Rich Dubee to realign this weekend’s pitching rotation, and voila!  To make it happen, all Dubee would have to do is switch Roy Oswalt’s and Kyle Kendrick’s starts this weekend.

Oswalt is set to pitch on Saturday, September 18, but if switched to pitch on Friday, September 17th, instead, the trio could line up against those wily Braves on Monday, starting with Cole Hamels. But does Dubee see it the same way?

He commented on the matter, as reported by Todd Zoleki saying:

“As long as [Oswalt] is feeling fine, there’s a real good chance,…I don’t think there’s any downside to pitching Oswalt, Hamels, and Halladay. They are our front three starters. I would think if you have two series with the Braves, you’d want the best guys available, if possible.”

The news comes at no surprise to some, given what’s at stake here. Between the Atlanta Braves, the San Francisco Giants, and the red hot, Colorado Rockies jostling for playoff berths, it seems winning the division will be key—Dubee is not going to be the one to take that chance.

In September the three have put up stellar pitching performances, pitching for a combined 51 innings, going 7-0, and throwing 52 strikeouts, while only giving up, between the three of them, an average of under two runs per game.

The Braves have faced two of the three pitchers this year, in four games. The pitchers have gotten the best of them in three of the four games pitching, between the two of them, 23 innings, giving up seven runs, throwing 20 strikeouts, and only giving up two runs.

For the Phils, the good news is, Roy Halladay has absolutely dominated the Braves the two times he faced them, going the distance in both games.

In the first game, Halladay pitched an .82 ERA, giving up no runs, and striking out seven. His second game interestingly enough were strikingly similar numbers, but with one home run given up.

The good news for the Braves is, they seemed to have less of a struggle with Hamels, scoring six runs on him, including a three-run homer by Troy Glaus in the rain, while splitting a game a piece with him.

Now, Hamels and Halladay add Oswalt to the show and for the first time this season, line up in one series and take on the Atlanta Braves for all of the marbles.

If that doesn’t get you excited as a Braves, or Phillies fan, nothing will.

It most certainly will be must see TV, and yours truly, will be all over that coverage the whole week. Stay tuned.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

One of the reasons, if not the reason, I got into baseball writing was to challenge conventional wisdom. Challenging conventional wisdom is what we learned from Bill James and from Billy Beane, and it is the reason we tend to speak unfavorably of Joe Morgan.

Since moving to Philadelphia, one bit of local conventional wisdom I have been quick to challenge has been the notion that Ryan Howard is one of the greatest run producers of all time. This hasn’t made me incredibly popular amongst my local readers and fellow writers (Jamie Ambler?), but it is a notion to which I have never warmed.

Are You Saying Ryan Howard isn’t a Good RBI Guy?

There can be no doubt in that during the last five baseball seasons, Ryan Howard has established himself as one of the premier RBI men in Major League Baseball. Howard has led the National League in RBI in three of the last four seasons and the only reason he didn’t lead the league in 2007 was because Matt Holliday won the RBI crown in a season-ending tiebreaker game with San Diego.

(By the way, counting one-game playoffs to be regular season games: There’s a rule worth revisiting.)

How unique is Howard’s performance over this period? Consider the following:

Since the advent of the American League in 1901, only six players in Major League Baseball have led their league in RBI’s three years in a row: Ty Cobb (1907-1909), Babe Ruth (1919-1921), Rogers Hornsby (1920-1922), Joe Medwick (1936-1938), George Foster (1976-1978), and Cecil Fielder (1990-1992).

If not for the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres finishing the 2007 season tied for second place in the NL West, Howard would have become the first player since 1901 to lead his league four years in a row; consider also that Howard only played 144 games in 2007, and you have to say “wow.”

So How Can You Say He Isn’t a Great Run Producer?

Nevertheless, given the potency of the Philadelphia Phillies lineup over that period and the general discrediting of the RBI as an indicator of value, however, I have been quick to discredit any sort of significance that has been placed upon Howard and his RBI totals.

After all, from a statistical perspective, Howard is not the best hitter in the National League; indeed, he is not really even the best hitting first baseman in the NL, and he may not even be in the top five.

And so my theory went thus: If you were to plug Albert Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez into the Phillies‘ lineup, not only would they easily lead the NL in RBI, but they may even set the National League record for RBI in a season.

This is not an unsupportable conclusion to reach, for Howard’s RBI have not been a one man show.

In 2006, when Howard first led the NL in runs driven in, Chase Utley led the league in runs with 132, and Jimmy Rollins didn’t finish too far behind with 127.

In 2007, Howard did not lead the NL but finished with an astounding 136 ribs nonetheless, and that season, J-Roll led the NL in runs scored with 139 while Utley and Aaron Rowand each scored over 100 runs.

In 2008, when Howard once again led the NL, the Phils had three guys score 100 runs, and when he did it again in 2009, they had four guys score 100 runs.

Doesn’t it seem like Pujols, Gonzalez, or any other elite hitter would be able to easily pace the National League in this category if they had the luxury of hitting behind Rollins, Utley, and company?

Good Point. Maybe Ryan Howard Isn’t Actually a Great Run Producer.

But then a funny thing happened: the 2010 season came along and challenged everything we know to be true.

Remember when we used to think that the Phillies had an “American League-style” offense? Not any more we don’t. We have become a team that plays a ton of one-run nail-biters.

Remember when we used to think that the Phillies were the type of team that won games with an elite offense in spite of their pitching? In 2010, our pitching has become our strong suit, and it is our offense that makes us want to look away.

As an aside, this is no reason for panic and no knock on this team. In fact, I believe that an argument could be that the 2010 team, with a simply dominant front three of Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, is more well-equipped to win the playoffs than either the 2008 team or the 2009 team. But I digress.

Where was I? Right. The 2010 Phillies offense has been terrible.

And it isn’t really their fault; The 2010 Phillies have suffered injuries to every major offensive contributor other than Jayson Werth, who himself has had mysterious issues at the plate. If this team had been healthy, who knows what we would have looked like on offense.

Which brings me back to Ryan Howard, and my point.

Finally.

Hitting behind scrubs and subs this season, with an incredibly inconsistent and unspectacular lineup, and himself having suffered injuries and hitting slumps, Howard has nevertheless collected 95 RBI this season.

Which, somehow, puts him fourth in the National League and only five RBI behind league leader Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies. Somehow, in an injury-plagued and slump-marred season, Howard has only three fewer ribs than Pujols and four fewer than Joey Votto, both of whom are having significantly better overall seasons, and whom most watchers expect to be vying for the NL MVP.

Unlike previous seasons, you can’t discredit this one. You can’t point to Utley and Rollins and say that anyone would produce runs behind those guys. You can’t point to the Phillies offense and say it is designed to score runs. You can’t even really credit the Phils’ ballpark.

When all is said and done, the point is becoming undeniable: Ryan Howard is one of the greatest run producers of all time.

How conventional.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s that time again: The time when the end of the season is approaching and everyone starts making their end-season predictions.

The Phillies have been supported by a handful of experts for the last couple of years. The remainder however, have been contrary.

Hindsight is 20/20 they say, and it is. But lets take a peek back to 2008, the magical year for the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans.

Within that year, did anyone think that in a playoff where the National League favorites where the mighty Chicago Cubs, with a season record of 97 – 64, would be dismantled by the swagger-filled Los Angeles Dodgers, the Philadelphia Phillies would come out of the NL?

Furthermore, defeat a young team in the World Series, who handily dominated the AL East which previously was under the monopoly of the Yankees and Redsox?

Those scenarios, at the time, seemed unlikely.

This year, there is new fun.

Why should Philadelphia fans believe that their team can do it again?

5 reasons…

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On July 31st, Brad Lidge blew yet another save for the Philadelphia Phillies.

The three-run bomb by Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman was Lidge’s fourth blown save of the season, and for many fans, it was the last straw.

Yet again, talk radio and the blogosphere was flooded with fans screaming that Lidge should be moved out of the closer’s role, possibly in favor of set-up man Ryan Madson.

Manager Charlie Manuel refused to consider such a move. And over the last three weeks, something interesting happened.

Lidge started looking good. Really good.

In fact, Lidge has went seven-for-seven in save opportunities in the month of August, and has yet to give up a run.

So is this rebound a small sample size-induced mirage, or has Lidge finally figured it out? Is he back to being the same “lights out” closer of 2008?

The hard truth is that Lidge will never fully return to the heights of 2008. But yes, it does appear Lidge has worked past his issues, and is back to being a solid closer.

The “Perfect” Season Revisited

In 2008, Brad Lidge was perfect.  In 48 chances, he did not blow one save, and was about as valuable as a closer not named Mariano Rivera can be. Lidge was undeniably fantastic.

He was also a bit lucky.

During the 2008 season, only 3.8 percent of Lidge’s fly balls left the yard. The league average is around 10 percent, but due to small sample size and matchups, elite relievers do often beat that average.

However, Lidge’s career HR/FB ratio is 11.0 percent.

As a result, it seems likely that his 2008 percentage was an anomaly. He should not be expected to ever reach that level of home run prevention ever again in his career.

Therefore, fans waiting for a return of the perfect closer will continue to be frustrated.

Back to 2008 Levels?

By all statistical measures, Lidge had an awful 2009 season. His strikeout rate dropped to its lowest of level of his career, as he racked up a 9.36 K/9 rate.  That was down from his 2008 rate of 11.94.

In addition, Lidge walked more batters. His 5.22 BB/9 was also a career high.

And his home run rate, while abnormally low in 2008, went through the roof in 2009. His 1.69 HR/9 rate was yet another career high.

After a poor start to the 2010 season, many observers dealt with “deja vu.” Lidge’s struggles seemed to be a carbon copy of 2009.

Therefore, it may be a surprise to learn that Lidge’s strikeout and walk rates in 2010 are almost identical to his 2008 numbers.

2008 Lidge: 11.94 K/9, 4.54 BB/9

2010 Lidge: 11.12 K/9, 4.45 BB/9

His elevated 2010 ERA in comparison to 2008 is purely a result of his home run rate. While in 2008, his 3.8 percent HR/FB rate was lucky, this year, Lidge has been a bit unlucky. His 15.2 percent HR/FB rate is even higher than last year, and considering his improvements in strikeouts and control, is probably just bad luck.

But Lidge appears to have his stuff back. His control has never been stellar, but he has returned to his career averages, which is a fantastic sign.

August Success

But has Lidge actually turned the corner? Will he sustain his improvements in strikeout rate and walk rate, or should fans still be concerned of a regression back to 2009 Lidge?

The most promising sign that the new reliable Lidge is here to stay comes in his newfound August aversion to the free pass.

In eight August appearances, Lidge has not walked one batter. He is pounding the strike zone and getting batters to chase when he throws outside the zone.

This run is his longest streak of consecutive appearances without a walk since 2008, when Lidge went 10 appearances between April 21 and May 9 without issuing a free pass.

August has not been a fluke. It’s much easier to finish a game in the ninth when the closer is not giving anyone a free trot to first base.

Conclusion

Phillies fans have seen the best of Lidge (2008), and the worst of Lidge (2009).

This has sadly resulted in a tendency to be reactionary when it comes to Lidge. When he strings together a few strong appearances, “Lights Out” is back. 

But when he blows a save, the “Madson for closer” brigade comes out in full force.

The fact is, all closers blow saves sometimes. Lidge is no different.

But his improvements in his peripheral statistics should help Lidge limit those occurrences going forward.

The 2008 Lidge will never come back. But the embattled closer has returned to reliability.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies wake up Tuesday morning 2.5 games back in the NL East division and on the cusp of getting two of baseball’s best players, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, back from injuries.

The Phillies, of course, are in the middle of a mini-dynasty, having been to the World Series for two straight years, and they hope to break into full-grown dynasty mode with a trip back to the Fall Classic this year.

Once the team gets its core of Utley-Howard-Jimmy Rollins back together, plus component parts Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino and the deadly pitching trio of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies have to be the odds on favorite to make it out of the National League.

Nevertheless, as great as the 2010 Phillies roster is, one cannot help but to look around the league and be enamored with the list of former Phillies currently starring around the league.  Would the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies be able to handle the 2010 Former Philadelphia Phillies All Stars?

Lets have a look.

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Breaking up is always hard to do, even when it’s for the best.

You start reminiscing about all the good times you’ve had, the places you’ve traveled together.

It’s even harder when you live together.  All their stuff is in your place, and everywhere you look are reminders of the good thing you had.

But sometimes it has to be done, even if you don’t have another special someone waiting in the wings.

You don’t stay with someone just because you’ve always been with them, hoping that things will get better.

Sometimes, it’s just no longer working and you need to start seeing other people.

For the Phillies and Brad Lidge, that sometime should be now.

There’s a give and take in every relationship.  Last night, the Phillies took the lead in the top of the ninth against the Nationals.

And Brad Lidge gave it away.

It was clear from the start the inning would end badly.  Lidge had no semblance of the strike zone last night.

Even the untrained eye could see he was struggling just to put the ball over.

A typical Lidge outing these days is enough to make your heart race–although not in a good way, like in the old days.

The year was 2008, and Brad Lidge was perfect. Not one blown save.

Not in the regular season.

Not in the postseason.

Lidge came out of that bullpen, and you knew it was game over–for the good guys.

Not any more.

Sure there are sparks of what made you fall in love with the guy in the first place.

The fall-off-the-table slider.

The sizzling fastball.

But when one of the traits starts to fade and you look a little deeper, you realize that there’s not much else there.

Lidge is a two-pitch pony. When one isn’t working, he has to lean on the other to get by.

Even this casual baseball writer can see it.

So what do you think happened when a professional hitter named Ryan Zimmerman stood in against Lidge in the bottom of the ninth with two on, trailing by one?

Lidge got smacked around.

Hard.

He sent that ball deep (and I mean deep ) to straightaway center field.

You square away on a ball like that, you knew what was coming.

Really, we all should have seen what was coming.

Perhaps someone (say, Charlie Manuel) should have seen how wild Lidge was and prevented the abuse that was to follow.

If a starting pitcher was that wild, he would have signaled for the bullpen.

But in baseball these days, it’s the closer’s job to get it done.  And in general, managers stick with those closers until the game is either won or lost.

Even if it’s obvious that a guy just doesn’t have good stuff on a night, he’s left out there to do his job.

The problem that Manuel is facing is that he really doesn’t have anyone else in the ‘pen who has shown he can do the job.

And unfortunately, the clock just struck midnight, ending the annual ball that is the trading deadline, with nary a maiden with closer stuff going home with our handsome prince.

So the Phillies leave the party with the same date they brought. Never showing any signs of checking out the other options there.

While it does speak to their loyalty, it doesn’t do much for the long term happiness of the team…and its fans.

Maybe things will get better. 

Maybe Lidge will find that spark that made him the best closer in baseball two years ago.

Maybe.

But most broken marriages don’t get better without counseling.

Perhaps Lidge can learn a new pitch, like Cole Hamels did in the offseason, so he isn’t walking so narrow a tightrope should he not have his best stuff on a given night.

Maybe they just need a “cooling off period,” so Lidge can focus on him, because we all know we can’t contribute to a relationship unless we’re comfortable in our own skin.

All I know is that this marriage between Lidge and the Phillies appears to be broken, and their friends are worried about it.

We Phillies fans know you have been through a lot together, and we hate to choose sides.

But like in most splits, you end up sticking with the friend you’ve known longer.

Sorry, Brad.

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For the Philadelphia Phillies, are two Roys better than one?

Multiple sources are reporting Thursday morning that the Phillies and Houston Astros have agreed to terms on a deal that will send Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia.  The teams are said to have the players and the money in place, and are simply awaiting Oswalt’s okay.

According to Mark Berman of FOX 26 Sports in Houston, the Astros have approached Oswalt, he is aware that a deal is on the table, and the teams are simply waiting for his response.

Oswalt has a No Trade Clause, which he must waive in order for the Astros to deal him. Oswalt has said to be insistent that his $16 million 2012 team option be picked up by any team seeking to acquire him.

The deal, which comes one day after the smashing debut of Phillies rookie Domonic Brown, looks to reinvent a team that has struggled this season under the weight of expectations and injuries.  The Phils are currently without their starters Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Shane Victorino, as well as veteran starting pitcher Jamie Moyer.

While the official trade deadline is this Saturday at 4:00 pm, there is an informal deadline of sorts attached to this deal.  Oswalt, who is one win away from Joe Niekro’s Astros career record of 144, is scheduled to start against Milwaukee on Friday night.

Sources say that if Oswalt is still an Astro by then, he will not be dealt.

The deal would bring a mixture of excitement and consternation for the Phillies and their fans.  Oswalt, who is owed $16 million for each of the next two seasons, would appear to be quite a bit more expensive, and a little more removed from his prime, than Cliff Lee, whom the Phillies had and chose to trade citing salary concerns.

Lee is making $9 million this season.

And if the Oswalt deal involves dealing Phillies second year man J.A. Happ, then the Phils will have gone from a potential front four of Roy Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels, and Happ, to a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, and Joe Blanton.

While the latter would seem to be quite good, the former would have been unstoppable.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The All-Star Break is a great time to reflect on your favorite team’s first half of the season: remembering the good times and the bad of the last three months.

So here they are (in my opinion): the five best wins and five worst losses for the Phillies during their first half of 2010.

Let’s start with the five worst losses and finish with the wins, and therefore, a high note. Enjoy!

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