Kuzul

Pedro Alvarez was given a day off on Monday as he continues to falter in the opening weeks of the 2011 season. At a shallow position, Alvarez was supposed to give owners a little bit of thump. Instead, all he has done is fallen with a resounding thud.

Now, the question is if it is time to give up hope or do we still think he can turn things around?

Clearly, the numbers from his first 15 games have been ugly:

57 At Bats
.193 Batting Average (11 Hits)
0 Home Runs
4 RBI
3 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.258 On Base Percentage
.228 Slugging Percentage
.297 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It is actually quite concerning that his BABIP is not outlandishly low. In fact, it’s quite realistic. Is there room for a little bit of improvement? Sure, but it’s not like we should have been expecting him to replicate his 2010 mark of .341.

There are two ways for Alvarez to improve his numbers and give value to fantasy owners:

1. Show some power
2. Reduce the strikeouts

The first one is pretty obvious when you realize that he has yet to hit one out. He hit 16 HR in 347 AB in 2010 (a home run every 21.7 AB). Over his 707 AB minor league career he hit 40 HR (a home run every 17.7 AB). There is no questioning the fact that there is some thunder in his bat. If you can afford to show some patience, you should be rewarded in this department before long.

The second point may be the more disturbing one. Thus far this season he has posted a 35.1 percent strikeout rate after posting a 34.3 percent mark in his rookie year. Considering his 27.9 percent minor league mark, there may be room for improvement, but not necessarily a great one.

Then again, we knew that heading into the year. When you drafted Alvarez, you knew that there was a very good chance that he struggled to hit for a good average, so it really shouldn’t be a surprise. Granted, a little bit of power will certainly help his bottom line and it should still be considered realistic that he hits around .250.

It’s not a great number, but what did you actually expect?

The bottom line with Alvarez is the power and, sooner or later, it is going to come around. He has shown it at every level since being selected in the first round of the 2008 draft, including in the major leagues. Just stay patient and you will be rewarded.

However, as a young player, it certainly is possible that your league mates are not willing to wait. Kick the tires and see what they would want. He’s going to get hot and you will reap the benefits.

What are your thoughts of Alvarez? Do you think he’s going to come around? Why or why not?

Make sure to check out these other great articles from Rotoprofessor:

• Around the Majors: April 19: Jed Lowrie, Tim Lincecum & More
• Injury Report: April 19: Alex Rodriguez, Victor Martinez & More
• Can Colby Lewis Return To Form?
• Fantasy Baseball’s Top 9 Under 27-Year Old First Basemen

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Pittsburgh hired Clint Hurdle this past offseason to work with a potentially playoff caliber team in the future. They seemed to hire the right guy then, and it sure is paying off. Although it’s hard to determine how a team will do with just two weeks into the season, the fact the Pirates are being more aggressive is true.

Hope is shining for this young ballclub.

The 22-year-old Jose Tabata took the Majors by surprise, batting .299 in 102 games last year. He also stole 19 bases. 

Although these stats are great for a rookie, the Bucs expected more from the 5’11” Tabata in 2011, and they have certainly gotten some support. 

He has already stolen seven bases, after working with base running coach Luis Silverio this Spring Training. What’s even more impressive is that his stolen base-to-caught stealing ratio at this point is 7:1 in 2011, which used to be 2.7:1 in his rookie campaign.

“Now, he feels really confident that when he takes off, he’s going to make it. After a couple of steps, he maximizes his speed. He has explosive speed. He just doesn’t look like it,” Silverio said about Tabata, who told the coach that he had problems reading off pitchers. 

Speed might one day be the ultimate weapon for this team, such as it was for the Texas Rangers last year. Did you see the postseason?

Home runs might have been a big part for the Rangers, but this is a start for Pittsburgh, a team that has been struggling for years.

Do not be surprised if Clint Hurdle encourages other guys on the team as well to steal some even more bags. If a .300 hitter in Neil Walker starts stealing, it sets up a RISP for power guys like Lyle Overbay and Garrett Jones. Also, don’t forget about Andrew McCutchen, who stole 33 of them in 2010.

Is there a possibility this team starts putting down suicide squeezes? Certainly, as this tactic goes perfect with speed in the lineup that can reach third base on a single from first. Or even with a runner that can advance to third easily after stealing a bag to second after a single.

Of course, only if there are less than two outs.  

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Sometimes there’s more entertainment in the stands of PNC Park than on the field. 

A disruptive fan at the Pittsburgh Pirates game Saturday night was first beaten and tased by police and then arrested. It’s unclear what the fan was telling police, but the officers felt they were in great danger.

From PittsburghLive.com:

“We both feared for our safety.” city detective Francis Rende wrote in a criminal complaint filed yesterday.

“The PNC Park staff is well trained to ensure the safety of our fans to maintain the fan-friendly environment at PNC Park for all fans and followed PNC Park procedures last night when dealing with a disruptive guest,” [team spokesman Brian] Warecki said in a statement.

Scott J. Ashley, of Friendship Pennsylvania, wasn’t very friendly as the Pirates lost to the Colorado Rockies. The 41-year-old shoved a park staff member and then everything went down hill.

This video is outrageous. The police felt unsafe in all of this even though they were constantly beating the disorderly fan. The report says that Ashley was not affected by the taser, therefore they began to club him.

He is a big dude, so I understand the much-needed force. I think all cops with only taser guns freak out when the taser doesn’t work effectively on an individual. The shots to the neck and head are a little excessive, though. The police continue to beat Ashely, saying he fought back.

“I then tased (Ashley) but it had no effect on him,” [Officer Francis] Rende wrote. “I then physically grabbed (him) to place him under arrest, (he) was a very muscular man and fought with both of us. I kept activating the taser to no avail.” 

That’s not what I see in the video, buddy. I see the man unaffected by the taser and then clubbed to the neck. In the age of cell phone cameras, cops should report the facts. 

Is the excessive beating needed? You tell me. 

The best part of this is all the fans in the background reacting to the first clubbed hit and then quickly grabbing their cell phones to take pictures and videos. Kudos to the person who shot this video, though. 

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It’s difficult to imagine things having gone any better for the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff through first eight games in 2011. The offense has hit for a team on-base percentage of just .312 and a stunningly bad (but not league-worst) .295 weighted on-base average. But the pitching has kept the team in every game it has played.

And they’re winning.  

The Pirates are 5-3 almost entirely behind their starting pitching and bullpen, with some cameo appearances from outfielders Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen, second baseman Neil Walker and first baseman Lyle Overbay.  Third basemen Pedro Alvarez has been terrible.  The offense has, really, gotten contributions from four people.  

And they’re still winning.  Yes, it’s the pitching.  But have the pitchers really been all that good?  

The staff ERA is a sleek 2.76, which is unattainable for any team.  No club can keep the opposition under three earned runs per game for an entire season.  There will be a regression to the mean.

The question at hand is just how hard the crashing down to Earth will be when it happens. 

The guess on this end is that it will be pretty destructive.  Their K/BB ratio is third worst in the league at 1.52 and they’re only striking out two batters every three innings.  Those numbers are even worse for the starting pitching, which has itself covered a bit by the extraordinarily K-prone closer Joel Hanrahan.

The ERA is 2.76, but the fielding independent pitching (FIP) is 3.62, and the xFIP (fielding independent pitching with an expectation of home run rates rising to league average) is a lousy 4.62.  Translation: The Pirates are getting lucky. Lucky to have had so many balls hit to stoppable spots and lucky to have given up just three home runs in eight games despite having the 11th highest flyball rate in the league (39.3 percent).  

The team defense has been okay in spurts so far this year, but in reality, the only members of the starting lineup with above average defensive pedigrees are Tabata, McCutchen, Overbay and injured catcher Chris Snyder.  With a pitch-to-contact staff, it seems unlikely that its pitches will keep being hit right at fielders.  

Pittsburgh’s rotation is far from the worst in the league, as some anticipated it would be before the year. There’s a good shot that they can be at least respectable this season, and the bullpen should be above average if Hanrahan, Jose Veras, Evan Meek, Mike Crotta and Chris Resop stay healthy.

A playoff rotation, however, they are not.

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On a cold and rainy night in Pittsburgh, the Pirates downed the Colorado Rockies 4-3 in 15 innings. 

Yes, Franklin Morales gave up a walk-off RBI double to José Tabata. Though it may be harsh, let’s face facts. They’re still the Pirates. (Don’t worry, Pirates fans. You get kudos later—keep reading.)

The same Pirates who haven’t had a winning season in almost two decades. Manny Ramirez wasn’t even playing in the majors the last time they rose above .500.

Yet for some reason, the Rockies had trouble Friday night.

Some may see this as a red flag for the team in 2011. While it does raise a few questions, there are certain things that must be remembered. 

One, the Pirates are better than you think.

While they won’t contend for an NL Central title anytime soon, Clint Hurdle has these Pirates on the upswing. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is among the best young players in the majors, and while the pitching isn’t great, it’s definitely solid.

Just look at their track record this year—they took two of three from division rival Chicago at Wrigley, and two of three from the hated Cardinals in St. Louis. Both those stadiums aren’t easy to win in if you’re not the home team.

Good news for the Pirates faithful in Pittsburgh—they’re only half a game back in a tough division, and if they keep playing like this, they could join Baltimore and Cleveland (Charlie Sheen must be so proud) among the surprise division leaders. 

The could very well break their streak of shame this year and actually finish north of .500.

Told you I’d give you props, Buccos. 

The Rockies simply had an off-night.

Jorge De La Rosa was good, though he wasn’t spectacular. He went five innings, giving up only two hits and two runs. He did walk three, but that’s not a bad sign. His ERA is still south of two, so give him another chance, Rockies fans.

Everyone has a bad day at the office.

What may be more of a worry is the fact that outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, catcher Chris Iannetta and outfielder Seth Smith went a combined 0-for-20. Those kind of games easily kills a batting average.

Poor offense is what led to tonight, and if they can pick up and move on from tonight, this should be a non-issue.

This storm cloud has a silver lining, though. The bullpen looked very strong having to work 8.2 innings. 

Lindstrom, Reynolds, Paulino, Betancourt and Street pitched well, only giving up four hits scattered over seven innings. That’s not bad at all. 

One bad night doesn’t kill a season. What the Rockies must do is simple. They must forget what happened tonight. It never happened.

The offense absolutely has to learn the lessons they take away from this loss, apply them to tomorrow and move on. That’s the beauty of this game—one bad night doesn’t kill your season.

Unless you’re Charlie Sheen. 

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When people around the Pittsburgh area heard that Andrew McCutchen was going to be batting third in the Pirates batting order, some people were skeptical. He is by far the Pirates fastest player and possibly the fastest man in Major League Baseball.

Wouldn’t a guy like this be better if he were batting leadoff?

The best and most talented hitter should be batting third, in my mind. McCutchen batted .286 with 16 home runs and 56 RBI last year. Expect those numbers to rise to 25 HR and 100 RBI this season, barring injury.

If the lineup changes for some reason and McCutchen moves to leadoff spot, then his overall HR and RBI totals will drop slightly. But if Jose Tabata and Neil Walker can consistently get on base, expect McCutchen to have an outstanding season batting third.

He is on the brink of being a household name, if he isn’t already. Watching him fly around the bases on TV doesn’t compare to watching him live at the ballpark. It is special watching him chase down fly balls, but he is dynamic when he hits the ball into the gap. That is the most exciting part to McCutchen’s game.

He just missed out on making the NL All-Star team last season, as he struggled in the weeks leading up to it. Evan Meek got the vote and McCutchen was left off. Not this season—McCutchen will be a surefire All-Star and will be able to showcase his talents on the national stage.

His 5’10”, 175-pound frame doesn’t scream power, but he has loads of it. He can spray it to all parts of the field. McCutchen could potentially be a 30-HR and 30-SB type of player this season. He stole 33 bases a year ago in his first full season as a Pirate.

If he does hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases this year, who knows what he will have in store for next season. He could hit 40 and steal 40 before his career is over.

The Pirates organization hasn’t seen a guy of this caliber since Barry Bonds.

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If you forgot that the Pittsburgh Pirates were a Major League team, I don’t blame you.

Being a Pirates fan is possibly the most difficult job in sports. The only thing I would consider worse would be being a fan of the Seattle Supersonics or the Montreal Expos or some other team that left right in front of your eyes.

The last time the Pirates finished with more wins than losses was 1992. I was four years old. Yes, you read that correctly. Four years old!

While Cubs fans may think they are in the worse shape, or Royals fans, or whomever, consider that your team still has had a winning season since the following events were true:

• George Bush was president (the first one)
• There was only one war in Iraq
• The world’s beloved Justin Bieber wasn’t even born yet
• Charlie Sheen was more known for being Wild Thing, instead of a legitimate threat to society

Why then, is this the year that the Pirates will finally go at least 82-80?

Read on to find out the top five reasons the Pittsburgh Pirates will finish above .500.

Begin Slideshow

This is the last full year of the Pirates club’s control of Paul Maholm.

True, they have a club option in 2012 for $9.75 million in what would be his first free-agent year. That compares to $5.75 million in 2011 and would be a payment that reflects free-agent, not “controlled” status.

Maholm is arguably the “ace” on what passes for a Pirates pitching staff. But that’s only on a team that’s perennially starved for good pitchers. On another team, he might be more like a third starter.

On that basis, Maholm would be (just) worth the $9.75 million in 2012. That would represent a barely above league-average compensation for a barely above league-average starter.

But the Pirates, a low-budget team, “never” pay market price for talent. And the $9.75 million would make Maholm the highest-paid player on the team, eating up roughly one-fifth of a normal annual budget.

For that kind of money, the Pirates would expect “lights out,” or “true” first-starter performance. Someone that could go against the likes of Roy Halladay or Johan Santana with at least a 50-50 chance of winning (as Zach Duke, in fact, did on his better nights out).

Even for the Pirates, $9.75 million would be a bargain for that level of production.

More likely, Maholm will run true to form and perform at a middle of rotation level. (His 2010 FIP, or sabermetric ERA of 4.18 supports this theory better than his actual ERA, which was nearly a whole point higher at 5.10.) That is, he will not be good enough for the money in Pittsburgh, but would offer an acceptable risk-reward profile to other teams. In this case, he would be traded, probably for prospects.

What’s left in the rotation would likely include last year’s star, James McDonald, a recovering Ross Ohlendorf and a re-emerging Charlie Morton. Kevin Correia, who figures to be a right-handed “Zach Duke” (although we don’t yet know which year’s), figures to fill a spot toward the back of the rotation, even though he, like last year’s Duke, was named opening day starter.

Candidates for the vacated fifth slot would include Jeff Karstens, Brian Burres and a re-started Brad Lincoln with the other two being long relievers or spot starters.

Trading Maholm and leaving a slot to be filled by the likes of the last three named players would not be pleasant. But unlike some of their predecessors (e.g.Oliver Perez), they are all legitimate fifth-starter options, which is to say that this is a more acceptable course of action than would otherwise be the case.

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Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Pittsburgh Pirates’ third baseman Pedro Alvarez displayed impressive power in his rookie season, whacking 16 HRs in just 347 at-bats.

He also showed the willingness to walk (9.6 percent walk rate), but whiffed on strike three a whopping 34.3 percent of the time.

Alvarez’s contact rate (69.7 percent) is perhaps most concerning, but the 24-year-old should improve as he gains more big league experience.

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has been tight-lipped on his plans for the team’s lineup, but Alvarez is expected to bat cleanup behind Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker.

Either way, it’s important for Hurdle to find a winning combination and stick with it.

In 258 at-bats in the five hole last year, Alvarez hit .295 with 15 HRs and 56 RBI; in his other 89 at-bats, he was juggled between second, fourth, sixth and ninth in the Pirates’ lineup, and hit just .146 with one HR and eight RBI.

There were reports earlier this spring that Alvarez had added 15 pounds over the offseason, tipping the scale at a hefty 240. While the Pirates have disputed this, they have expressed concern regarding his conditioning.

Alvarez will remain at third base for the foreseeable future, but first base is his likely future destination—a move that would put a dent in his fantasy value.

For now, though, the left-handed slugger checks in as the 11th ranked third baseman on my 2011 big board, No. 93 overall.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
• Nos. 81-90: Upton, Young or Werth?
• No. 91: Brian Wilson
• No. 92: Carlos Marmol

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Part two of our position by position look at the Pittsburgh Pirates takes us to the the first basemen in camp.

Last season, Garrett Jones was the primary first baseman, and while he could still see a start or two there this season, first base will have a different look to it.

Several Pirates got a look at first base last season, beginning with Jeff Clement. All together, seven different Pirates started games at the position. With the offseason signing of Lyle Overbay, first base is one position that should have a bit more stability during the 2011 season.

With that being said, let’s take a look at who’s in camp.

Lyle Overbay

2010 Stats: .243 AVG, 20 HR, 67 RBI

2011 Salary: $5,000,000

Overbay was one signing that was a bit peculiar in the offseason. He’s basically your run of the mill, average first baseman that’s trending on the down side of his career. He doesn’t amount to many more wins for the Pirates, but they could (and have before) do much worse.

Overbay will be pretty much the everyday guy and I will warn you now that he’s streaky. If Pirates fans weren’t happy with the streaky Adam Laroche, they probably won’t be too happy with Overbay either.

Overbay will provide a solid glove and, if everything goes well, could have a bounce-back type of season at the plate. He likely will hit in the middle of the Pirates’ order, so he will have run producing opportunities.

Fantasy Value: Not much. Overbay is the first baseman for those that miss out on the big guns at the position. At best, he likely will hit between .260 and .270 with 15-20 homers and 65-80 RBI. He will be given the at-bats, though, so if he produces early in the season, Overbay could be a mild surprise.

Overview: Overbay could help this young team both offensively and defensively. He’s a solid pro. If he has a solid first half, he’s likely trade bait at the deadline.

Steve Pearce

2010 Stats: .276 AVG, 0 HR, 5 RBI

2011 Salary: $414,000

Pearce is running out of chances in Pittsburgh, but keep an eye on him. He doesn’t have a bad glove at first base and the one thing he can do is hit lefties well (.304 lifetime average).

However, the signing of Matt Diaz could spell the end to the Pearce experiment. Diaz is even better against lefties and will start in right field against them, freeing up Jones as a backup first baseman.

Pearce will need a strong finish to spring training, but if he gets hot, he could become a good right-handed bench option for Pirates manager Clint Hurdle.

Fantasy Value: None. Making the team will be tough enough for Pearce, finding suitable playing time will be tougher. Spot starts at best.

Overview: It would be nice to see Pearce make the team and contribute. It likely won’t happen, though he will be given a long look the rest of camp though. He can at least force Hurdle’s decision to be a very tough one.

Garrett Atkins

2010 Stats: .214, 1 HR, 9 RBI

2011 Salary: $800,000 (non-roster invitee)

Atkins could be the guy to force Pearce off the team with a strong spring.

Atkins thrived under Hurdle while both were in Colorado, which is likely the only reason a team gave him another chance after watching his OPS decline by an average of 73 points the past four seasons.

The ideal thought would be that Atkins could provide some pop against left-handers, but even that may be stretching things a bit, considering he only hit .204 against southpaws a season ago.

He’s only 31, so washed up may be too strong of a term, but Atkins likely has to have a big spring to head north with the Pirates.

Atkins is currently off to a good start in camp, so if he continues, then he could force Hurdle to keep him. If he makes the team, he has a chance to be a bit of a surprise, providing a right-handed power bat off the bench that can play both corner positions.

Other First Base Options

If Overbay falters, there are a few other internal options besides Pearce. Of course, Jones would be the logical guy to plug in there, but the Pirates could also look at Ryan Doumit (let’s hope not), John Bowker and even Clement when he gets healthy enough.

Key Stat

In today’s game, first base has become a position that needs to be a run producing position. Pirates’ first basemen combined to hit under .240 a season ago. As far as run producing, the numbers weren’t much better, though Jones didn’t have a terrible season.

To be improved in 2011, Overbay having a bounce back season will be crucial.

Prospect to Keep an Eye On

Anthony Rendon: The Pirates don’t have a true first base prospect in the organization, although Calvin Anderson’s power potential is intriguing. Keep an eye on Rendon’s season at Rice University. He should likely be the first overall pick in this season’s amateur draft, eventually forcing a shift to first base for Pedro Alvarez.

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