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The Pittsburgh Pirates system took a hit last year with Jameson Taillon’s Tommy John surgery, but fellow right-handers Tyler Glasnow and Nick Kingham picked up the slack in his absence, with the former posting video-game numbers in the Florida State League.

Meanwhile, switch-hitter Josh Bell’s season was very encouraging, to say the least. Bell was a bonus baby as a second-round pick in 2011 but then struggled out of the gate with injuries the following year and was surpassed by other players in the system. Thankfully, the 22-year-old was fully healthy in 2014 and finished the season in Double-A, where he showcased the pure hitting ability that made him so highly sought-after a few years back.

Outfielder Austin Meadows’ season was delayed by a hamstring injury, but the 19-year-old made an immediate impact following his return to action, joining fellow 2013 first-round pick Reese McGuire at Low-A West Virginia in the South Atlantic League.

Beyond that, shortstop Cole Tucker and right-hander Mitch Keller, the Pirates’ first- and second-round picks from 2014, both received positive reviews for their performances in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, and they both will be players to follow closely next season.

Here are the Pittsburgh Pirates’ top 10 prospects for the 2015 season.

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Already blessed with a future that looks plenty bright, there’s a chance the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ future will look even brighter before long. It depends on what will become of their newest acquisition.

If you’re just now joining us, that’s Jung-ho Kang. 

Kang is a 27-year-old shortstop from South Korea who was posted by the Nexen Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization last month. The Pirates won his exclusive negotiating rights, and Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio reported Monday that the two sides have a deal:

Because it cost the Pirates about $5 million to win the rights to negotiate with Kang, their four-year investment in him is going to cost them at least $21 million. Not quite dirt cheap, but hardly a lot of money by today’s standards. 

And if all you want to consult is the numbers, it will look like cold-blooded highway robbery.

Kang is coming off a season in which he hit .356 with a 1.198 OPS and 40 home runs. For his career, he’s a .298 hitter with an .886 OPS in seven seasons. At a time when the average major league shortstop is only managing a .678 OPS, such numbers will make you drool if you keep them free of context.

But as we discussed when the Pirates first won Kang‘s rights, you don’t want to take Kang‘s numbers at face value. His major league projection is uncertain. By extension, so is the role he’s cut out for.

One issue is that the current offensive environment in the KBO is the opposite of the current offensive environment in Major League Baseball. While nobody is hitting here, everybody is hitting over there. It’s also noteworthy that the record of hitters successfully making the jump from the KBO to MLB is empty.

Just as important, Kang‘s game doesn‘t come without question marks.

B/R’s Mike Rosenbaum was right to highlight how Kang‘s hitting mechanics could make him vulnerable to good heat, a major concern in light of how velocity-crazy MLB has become. Further, Ben Badler’s scouting report in Baseball America says Kang “doesn’t have the range to play shortstop in the majors.”

So what is it the Pirates see in Kang, you ask?

Good question. Manager Clint Hurdle didn’t exactly tip the organization’s hand when he was asked about Kang on Monday.

“I know that the thought going in was that, if we were able to acquire Jung-ho, it would be to add quality to our team in a number of different ways,” Hurdle told Tom Singer of MLB.com. “We’ll see how it plays out — but I do love the fact we continue to find ways to be creative, to be proactive.”

With the Pirates putting on a good poker face, it’s up to us to get creative in our own right and project how Kang could fit into the organization going forward.

Which leads us to the good news: As easy as it is to downplay Kang‘s star potential, it’s equally easy to spot potential roles for him to play.

Though Kang doesn‘t project to be a star shortstop, one need not be a star to be useful. It could be the Pirates think Kang has enough skills to pass as an everyday shortstop who’s simply good enough.

If so, they might not be wrong. 

Though Kang‘s swing appears to have some holes in it, the consensus is that he has enough raw power to hit 15-20 homers with regular playing time. That kind of power production is rare at shortstop, and Kang could make it all the more valuable if he shows he is indeed capable of playing solid defense.

While Baseball America doesn‘t see that happening, Rosenbaum and ESPN.com’s Keith Law—he sees a shortstop with an above-average arm and “good enough hands” who “gets good reads off the bat”—are more optimistic. If the Pirates see what they see, then it’s possible they have themselves a power-hitting shortstop with a solid glove.

If that’s what Kang is, then there’s not much standing in his way of becoming Pittsburgh’s everyday shortstop.

That’s a role that currently belongs to Jordy Mercer. He’s better than you probably think, but he’s also 28 and likely doesn‘t offer any upside beyond last year’s career-best 2.0 WAR (per FanGraphs) as Pittsburgh’s regular shortstop. A roadblock he is not.

Maybe Kang can take Mercer’s job right away, which could very well be as simple as him showing strong in spring training while Mercer struggles. If that doesn‘t pan out, he’ll have time to position himself for Mercer’s job before top prospect Alen Hanson emerges as a real threat for it.

Regardless of when it happens, Kang hitting and fielding well enough to pass as an everyday shortstop is the best-case scenario for the Pirates. If they get their wish, they’ll be very happy with their $21 million investment.

If not, the more realistic projection for Kang‘s future could still serve them well. 

As FanGraphs‘ Jeff Sullivan highlighted, the realistic projection for Kang‘s future was revealed in the bidding for his negotiating rights: “It’s clear from the winning bid how Kang is perceived, league-wide. If teams believed he were a starter, the bid would’ve been at least triple [Pittsburgh’s $5 million bid].”

This is to say the league really sees Kang as more of a role player. Badler’s scouting report says the same thing, specifically that Kang projects to be an “offensive-oriented utility player” who could play second and third base in addition to shortstop.

That, obviously, is a role that’s not quite as sexy as that of a power-hitting, solid-fielding everyday shortstop. But $21 million over four years is hardly an exorbitant price to pay for a player like that. And with only Justin Sellers and Sean Rodriguez projected as depth behind Mercer at short, Neil Walker at second and Josh Harrison at third, a player like that would also look good on Pittsburgh’s bench.

Compared to Rodriguez and Sellers, Kang also looks like solid insurance in the event Mercer struggles and/or Harrison regresses after his amazing 2014 season. A little further on down the line, he could also work as a solid in-house solution if Walker leaves as a free agent after 2016.

All told, the only way Kang‘s contract is going to hurt the Pirates is if he never does anything in the majors. But even if that happens, it won’t be a crippling blow.

The Pirates have been to the playoffs two years in a row, and FanGraphs projects their 2015 squad to contend for the NL Central title. And because their roster is made up largely of cheap youth with plenty more talented youth waiting in the wings—Rosenbaum ranked Pittsburgh’s farm system No. 5 at the end of the MiLB season—it’s no wonder ESPN.com ranked the Pirates at No. 6 in its Future Power Rankings.

Point being: the Pirates don’t need Kang to be a savior. If he does bust, their only regret will be losing $21 million. And though they’re not the New York Yankees or the Los Angeles Dodgers, even the Pirates can afford to swallow that much money in this day and age.

On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s future will become slightly brighter if its investment in Kang yields a solid utility player. If Kang makes good on his most optimistic outlook and settles in as Pittsburgh’s new everyday shortstop, Pittsburgh’s future will be brightened more than slightly.

In all, the figures of Kang‘s contract haven’t changed anything. The Pirates looked like the right team to take a chance on him when they won his rights, and they still do.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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After a relatively quiet start to the offseason, general manager Neal Huntington and the Pittsburgh Pirates have added a few key pieces to the team’s roster that could help lead them back to the postseason for the third straight year.  

While the signings of starting pitchers Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett were much needed insurance for the Pirates’ rotation, there are still doubts about the back end of the rotation.    

With Liriano and Burnett, the Pirates will head into the regular season with a pretty solid rotation that also consists of Gerrit Cole, Vance Worley and Jeff Locke.  

There is no question about Cole’s dominance on the mound. The No. 1 overall pick by the Pirates in the 2011 amateur draft, Cole has gone 21-12 with a 3.45 ERA in two seasons, and while he only started 22 games last season, he looks primed to have a breakout year in 2015.  

Then, there is Worley, who was a key contributor to the Pirates’ second-half surge last season, going 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA in 17 starts; however, he has never made more than 23 starts in a single season.  

Based on his performance in 2014 and on the Pirates’ need for starting pitching, Worley will likely fit in nicely as a No. 3 or No. 4 pitcher. At the same time, it will be interesting to see if he can put a full season of work together for the Pirates.  

Locke is unique because of the spurts of dominance he has had over the last two seasons for the Pirates. In 2013, Locke started a career-high 30 games, going 10-7 with a 3.52 ERA; however, those statistics are not as impressive when you look at the drop-off he had in the second half of the season.  

In the first half of the 2013 regular season, Locke was 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA and was in serious consideration for the National League Cy Young Award. Those talks quickly went out the door when he went 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA in the second half.  

In 2014, Locke made just 21 starts, going 7-6 with a still respectable 3.91 ERA.  

Simply put, the Pirates could use another starting pitcher to compete with Locke for the fifth spot in that rotation.  

While the organization is not in the running for big-name free agents such as Max Scherzer and James Shields, there is still talent available on the market.  

Consider a guy like Ryan Vogelsong, who pitched for the Pirates for five seasons during 2001-2006. Although he is going to be 38 in July, he has displayed great stamina and durability throughout his career.  

In 2014, as a member of the San Francisco Giants, Vogelsong went just 8-13 with a 4.00 ERA but was able to throw 184.2 innings. At this point in his career, he probably isn’t seeking a lengthy contract, and he could serve as a nice No. 5 guy in the Pirates’ rotation if Locke cannot find his groove.

Another avenue the Pirates could head down is considering a guy like Carlos Villanueva, who could serve as a spot starter or a regular reliever.  

The 31-year-old righty has not been very good as a starting pitcher, going 18-33 with a 5.00 ERA in 76 career starts. Over the last two seasons, however, Villanueva has gone 12-15 with a 4.27 ERA in 89 games (20 of those he started).  

On the bright side, Villanueva is 27-17 with a 3.55 ERA when coming out of the bullpen in his career (439.0 innings pitched). Depending on what kind of deal he is seeking, the Pirates may benefit from having a versatile player like Villanueva who could give them a spot start on any given day.  

The Pirates have managed to put together a solid-looking team on paper this offseason, and if Locke and Worley can both put together full seasons of work, Pittsburgh will likely contend for the National League Central title.  

If even one of them fails to stay healthy and/or productive, however, the Pirates will need another insurance arm to slide into the starting role.  

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.

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Ever since the departure of former shortstop Jack Wilson, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been searching for an everyday player who could potentially become their franchise shortstop.  

Wilson had a successful career in Pittsburgh, serving primarily as the Pirates’ everyday shortstop from 2001-2009.  In 1,159 career games with the Pirates, Wilson batted .269 with 60 home runs, or roughly 10 home runs per season.  

Current shortstop Jordy Mercer seemed to be on the track to stardom in Pittsburgh after batting .285 in 103 games in 2013 before seeing his numbers drop off last season (.255 average in 149 games).  

Mercer certainly could continue to serve as an everyday shortstop for the Pirates, as he has managed to remain healthy and in the lineup throughout his short career.  However, a change may be on the horizon for the Pirates.  

The Pirates made headlines in December when Tom Singer of MLB.com reported that the team had won the bidding rights to Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang.

The 27-year-old shortstop has played nine seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, owning a career batting average of .298 with 139 home runs 3,070 at bats.  His best year came in 2014 when he blasted 40 home runs and collected 117 RBI in 117 games.  

If the Pirates go on to sign Kang, it would be difficult to predict how his statistics from playing in the KBO would translate to the major league level.  After all, only two South Korean-born position players have made the transfer to Major League Baseball.  

Shin-Soo Choo is the most notable of the couple.  Aside from his down year in 2014, Choo has been a major league success story, batting .282 in 10 major league seasons.  

The Pirates would welcome that kind of talent to their lineup with open arms, and if Kang could make a smooth transition, the Pirates may have found their franchise shortstop for years to come.  

Jordy Mercer as a Trade Chip

Assuming the Pirates do go ahead and sign Kang to a major league deal, Mercer would likely be left on the roster without a starting job.  After all, the Pirates probably aren’t going to be willing to dish out a great deal of money for someone who will platoon with Mercer at shortstop.  

Could general manager Neal Huntington have Mercer in the back of his mind as a potential trade chip?  It is hard to imagine that he wouldn’t be shopping Mercer if the deal with Kang gets done.  

It is not as if the Pirates do not already have tremendous talent at the other middle-infield position, as second baseman Neil Walker has emerged as one of the most reliable second basemen in the league and has added a Silver Slugger Award to his name.

The main weakness on the Pirates’ depth chart is in their starting pitching rotation, although they were able to bolster it by bringing back Francisco Liriano on a three-year deal.  

Perhaps trading Mercer along with a couple of prospects could be enough to land a quality starting pitcher who could put the Pirates over the top for 2015.  At the same time, however, keeping Mercer as a backup would be a great asset for the organization as well.  

After today, the Pirates will have just 19 days left to sign Kang, as the window for signing someone after winning the bidding rights to an international player is just 30 days.  

If the organization is successful in signing Kang, it could become one of the key signings of Huntington’s reign as general manager of the team.  

*Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

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On Monday we learned the Pittsburgh Pirates have won negotiating rights to Korean shortstop Jung-Ho Kang, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Kang’s Korea Baseball Organization team, the Nexen Heroes, accepted Pittsburgh’s high bid of slightly more than $5 million, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and the two sides now will have 30 days to negotiate a deal.

According to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News, Kang is said to be seeking a contract in the three-year, $24 million range.

A lot has been made of Kang this offseason, as the 27-year-old was long expected to pursue a career in Major League Baseball following a career-best season in the KBO. Should he reach the major leagues, he’ll become the first player to make the jump directly from the KBO. On top of that, Kang is set to arrive at a time when there’s a scarcity of impact hitters, let alone shortstops, on the open market.

But is Kang the next great international player, or should expectations be tempered?

Kang posted huge numbers in 2014, his final KBO campaign, hitting .356/.459/.739 with 40 home runs, 36 doubles and 117 RBI in 117 games. While it was easily the best season in his career, it wasn’t as though Kang came out of nowhere.

Originally a second-round selection in the 2006 KBO draft, Kang debuted as a 19-year-old but didn’t emerge as an everyday player until 2008.

The 2012 season was when everything seemed to click for Kang, as he raked at a .314 clip over 124 games while contributing 25 home runs and 32 doubles. Kang also demonstrated vastly improved plate discipline by accruing nearly as many walks (71) as strikeouts (78), and, just for good measure, he added a career-high 21 stolen bases.

Kang failed to build off his success the following year, but he still hit .291 in 126 games and showed a promising combination of power and speed with 22 home runs, 21 doubles and 15 stolen bases.

And then, of course, came his monster 2014 season.

However, whether Kang’s robust power and production will translate in the majors next season, provided he works out a deal with the Pirates in the next month, remains up in the air.

Those who have scouted Kang generally seem to agree that the right-handed batter’s power will play in The Show.

From ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required):

…I see a swing that will generate legit plus power even once he leaves his hitter-friendly home park in the Yangcheon District of Seoul. Kang has a huge leg kick and gets his lead foot down late, which could create timing issues, but the swing is rotational, and I don’t think the power surge he has had the past three years is strictly a function of the rising level of offense in the KBO.

Building off Law’s comments, Kang, at 6’0”, 210 pounds, uses an upright setup at the plate that allows him to employ an elongated and distinct load and leg kick, which is relatively common among power hitters from Asian leagues.

More specifically, Kang tries to hold his weight on his backside for as long as possible, which in turn forces him to rush his front-foot timing and prevents him from achieving a favorable point of contact. However, he does appear to maintain good balance throughout his swing and doesn‘t land as violently on his front side as you’d expect.

On top of that, Kang possesses above-average bat speed as well as raw power to all fields, so he should still run into his share of pitches even if he fails to hit for average. In a recent article, Jeff Sullivan of FOX Sports (among other places) offered a similar take about Kang’s power in the major leagues:

On the one hand, we can’t expect Kang‘s power to totally translate to the majors. On the other hand, it’s a legitimate skill of his. Kang appears capable of hitting big-league home runs, with a big swing load and power to the pull side and up the middle. Here are a bunch of video highlights, and while Kang hits some wall-scrapers, he’s also responsible for his share of no-doubters, and he can hit a big-league baseball 400 feet.

Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kang were to struggle against good velocity in the big leagues; his timing mechanism could make him susceptible to fastballs on the inner half, resulting in a significant amount of swing and miss and weak contact.

On the other side of the ball, Kang, based on video, appears to move well enough at shortstop, showing good athleticism with average range in all directions, and he also plays the position with a sense of creativity that aids him in making difficult plays. Kang’s arm strength is probably a better fit at second base than shortstop, though his smooth transfer and arm stroke allow him to get rid of the ball quickly.

Not everyone views Kang as a big league shortstop, though.

From Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required):

While Kang is a solid offensive player, the consensus in the international scouting community is that he won’t be an everyday payer. He doesn’t have the range to play shortstop in the majors, and scouts also expressed concerns about his ability to make the routine plays. Kang doesn’t have a plus tool, but there’s enough potential at the plate for him to be an offensive-oriented utility player who starts his U.S. career in the majors.

Sullivan believes Pittsburgh’s winning bid for Kang reflects the 27-year-old’s perception across the industry, writing that: “If teams believed he were a starter, the bid would’ve been at least triple this.”

He also acknowledges that some teams simply avoid the “blind risk” involved with international hitters, using Ichiro Suzuki’s first contract with Seattle for three years and $14 million as an example.

All of this is just speculation, obviously. The only real way to gauge Kang’s potential in the big leagues is to have him compete against big leaguers. Unfortunately, that won’t happen until spring training, and that’s only if he and the Pirates work out a deal.

But the fact that clubs bid on Kang in the first place is significant in and of itself, as it’s at least partial confirmation that he’s perceived to have potential in the major leagues.

For the Pirates, finding out what that potential might translate to is a risk worth taking.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have signed up to take a chance on a 27-year-old shortstop who hit 40 home runs last season.

Yeah, you’ll have to trust me that there is some chance involved with a player like that. Actually, “risk” might be the better word, as the shortstop in question is no sure thing.

We can say this, though: The Pirates are just the team to roll the dice on him.

The shortstop in question is Jung-ho Kang, a nine-year veteran of the Korean Baseball Organization. The Nexen Heroes agreed to post him last week, and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported Monday that the Pirates have made the winning bid:

Yonhap News reported over the weekend that Nexen had agreed to accept a $5 million bid for Kang‘s exclusive negotiating rights. Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review reports that this is indeed the price the Pirates have paid. They’ll now have 30 days to hammer out a contract for Kang.

We’ll see where things go from here, but Kang‘s numbers in Korea say he shouldn’t come cheap. He’s a career .298 hitter with an .886 OPS, and he’s coming off a season with 40 dingers with a 1.198 OPS.

Factor in how Kang is younger than most free agents. Then factor in how he has right-handed power at a time when such power is in short supply. Oh, and also how the shortstop position in Major League Baseball has become almost entirely devoid of power.

“If he was Cuban, he’d get $100 million,” said Kang‘s agent, Alan Nero, in early November to a group of reporters that included Heyman.

Put it all together, and you have what looks like a rare gem. But when discussing Kang‘s potential in the majors, it’s best not to get carried away.

Regarding the absurd numbers Kang put up last year, it’s important to view those in context of what was happening around him.

To this end, a lot of guys were putting up absurd numbers in the KBO last year. Here’s FanGraphs‘ Jeff Sullivan writing at FoxSports.com:

Three seasons ago, a Korean baseball game featured an average of about eight and a half runs. Two seasons ago, that rose to nine and a half. Last season, it jumped all the way up past 11. What was allegedly a more lively ball certainly played like a more lively ball, and offensive numbers league-wide skyrocketed.

Basically, the run-scoring environment in Korea is the exact opposite of the run-scoring environment in the States. Where pitching rules in MLB, hitting rules in the KBO.

Beyond this, there’s the book on Kang himself. I’ll refer you to Mike Rosenbaum‘s scouting report for the full breakdown, but there are two concerns that stand out. 

One has to do with Kang‘s swing mechanics. They look like an exaggerated version of Josh Donaldson’s, as Kang uses a big leg kick that sees him shift virtually all his weight to his back leg, and there’s also some hand movement involved.

That’s a lot of moving parts, so Rosenbaum could be right in thinking, “Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kang struggles against good velocity in the big leagues, as his swing and timing mechanism could make him susceptible to fastballs on the inner half.”

This wouldn‘t have been too big of a concern a couple years ago, but it’s a big concern now. Between a new era of hard-throwing starters and a surplus of hard-throwing relievers, there’s a ton of good velocity in MLB these days.

The other notable concern has to do with Kang‘s defense. Rosenbaum sees enough athleticism for the position but opines that Kang‘s arm strength “is probably a better fit at second.”

With Neil Walker stationed at second base, there’s no job opening there for Kang in Pittsburgh. And while Jordy Mercer is nothing special at shortstop, Kang won’t necessarily be an upgrade if his arm doesn’t play on defense and pitchers are able to overwhelm him with velocity.

So while the Pirates may be on the verge of signing a power-hitting shortstop, let’s not pretend like they’re on the verge of signing a guaranteed star. That’s an unfair assessment.

Instead, here’s a more fair assessment: Maybe he can’t be a star, but Kang could be the piece that pushes the Pirates over the hump from “NL Central contenders” to “NL Central favorites.”

Though there are concerns about how Kang‘s talent will play in the big leagues, there are reasons for optimism too.

For one, the consensus appears to be that even despite his iffy swing mechanics, Kang‘s power is the real deal. Rosenbaum sees “above-average bat speed to go along with raw power to all fields,” and ESPN.com’s Keith Law sees “legit plus power.”

As such, it’s not nuts to expect as many as 20 homers out of Kang. Maybe you lower the expectation to 15-20 to account for PNC Park, but that’s still solid in the wake of a season in which only four shortstops made it to 15 home runs.

As for Kang‘s defense, it could be that Rosenbaum is underselling his arm a little. Law sees a “60 arm” to go with a good feel for the position. If that’s true, then the Pirates have picked up a guy who can add some solid defense to his 15-20 homer power.

A decent comparison for a player like that is Starlin Castro. He’s not a particularly great hitter or fielder but is solid at the former and good enough at the latter. Going off FanGraphs‘ version of the stat, his skill set has made him about a three-WAR player in his better seasons.

A shortstop like that would not only be an upgrade over what the Pirates got out of the position in 2014, but also what FanGraphs projects them to get from shortstop in 2015. Knowing how scarce shortstop upgrades are, Kang would thus be quite the find.

And in the end, he could be what puts the Pirates on top of the NL Central.

As things stand now, FanGraphs has Pittsburgh projected to be on par with the St. Louis Cardinals. Where they’re projected for 87 wins, the Pirates are projected for 86. If the Pirates are indeed adding a 3-WAR shortstop to the mix, you can imagine the Pirates leapfrogging St. Louis in the projected standings.

If that’s what comes to pass, adding Kang will have been the difference between the Pirates earning another wild-card berth and winning the division and going straight to the National League Division Series. Now more than ever, that’s the way you want to go.

Of course, that the Pirates are already projected to be a pretty good team in 2015 means they’re cut out to absorb the worst-case scenario of Kang‘s becoming a total bust. It also means they could live with the not-quite-best-case scenario of Kang‘s only being good enough to be a reserve infielder. And with Alen Hanson down on the farm, the Pirates don’t really need Kang to be their long-term solution at shortstop.

In other words, the Pirates are well-positioned to make the kind of upside play they’re making with Kang. If he doesn’t pan out, they should be OK. If he does pan out, they’ll be a lot better than OK.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are keeping the gang together.

Having already signed free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett earlier in the offseason, the Pirates agreed to bring back left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano on a three-year, $39 million contract on Tuesday, per Robert Murray of MLBDailyRumors.com:

According to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the deal is the largest the Pirates have ever given to a free agent, surpassing the two-year, $17 million pact Russell Martin inked before the 2012 season.

The 31-year-old has been excellent in the Pirates’ starting rotation over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA and 3.26 fielding independent pitching (FIP) in 323.1 innings while making 55 starts.

Liriano’s 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and 52.4 percent ground-ball rate during that time frame rank eighth and ninth, respectively, among all starters with at least 300 innings pitched.

He also allowed just 0.61 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the last two seasons, good for eighth in MLB.

With that said, Liriano’s control regressed considerably in 2014 (4.49 BB/9) and resulted in about one extra walk per nine innings compared to the previous year (3.52 BB/9). However, as has been the case for most of his career, the left-hander’s ability to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground helped minimize any negative impact stemming from his uptick in free passes.

Liriano has been key to the Pirates’ winning ways the past two years, as he anchored the pitching staff and netted the team 4.7 wins (fWAR).

Assuming Liriano passes his physical, the Pirates’ 2015 starting rotation will feature the same three-headed monster of Liriano, Burnett and Gerrit Cole—along with the less heralded Charlie Morton—that helped them crack a 20-year playoff drought back in 2013.

Three years and $39 million seems like a fair price for the Pirates, but it’s difficult to ignore Liriano’s extensive injury history and the reality that he’s probably not going make 30 starts or pile up innings.

For Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, the left-hander’s durability isn’t overly concerning.

“Even if you discount that performance for the lower total of innings pitched, Liriano looks like a plus-two WAR pitcher for 2015, with some upside beyond that. In this market, $39 million for that kind of value looks like a pretty nice steal for the Pirates,” he wrote.

Liriano’s dominance when healthy over the past two years makes the deal well worth the risk for the Pirates, especially given the overall strength of their rotation.

With Liriano locked up for the next three seasons, the Pirates—who entered the winter meetings with at least $15 million to spend toward the 2015 season, per Rob Biertempfel of TribLive.com—are expected to add even more pitching depth this offseason.

Biertempfel reports they have expressed interest in free-agent reliever Pat Neshek.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

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Francisco Liriano declined the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ initial qualifying offer but was able to negotiate and secure a long-term deal to remain with the club on Tuesday.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports Liriano is in Pittsburgh to stay after signing a new three-year contract:

HardballTalk.com’s Aaron Gleeman highlights how impressive Liriano has been during his two years in Pittsburgh:

Battle-tested, resilient starters like Liriano, who is still capable of performing at an All-Star level, are difficult to come by. The premium placed on starting pitching, often a catalyst for postseason success, bolsters Liriano’s value even more.

Liriano, 31, has experienced a number of peaks and valleys throughout his MLB career, evident in his two Comeback Player of the Year awards (2010, 2013). All the adversity that preceded this and the hard work Liriano put in to overcome the hurdles along the way have culminated in a fresh, promising situation in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates have undergone a dramatic change in culture, making the postseason each of the past two seasons after a prolonged playoff drought that began in 1993. Liriano’s arrival coincided with the change, making him a valuable cornerstone to keep in the clubhouse.

A victim of underwhelming run support in 2014, Liriano had a stellar 3.38 ERA but managed just a 7-10 record in 29 starts.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten key contributions from a variety of young players over the last two seasons, making it to the playoffs both years.  

While these players have had solid seasons, they have not nearly reached their potential.  In 2015, however, that could be a different story. 

Let’s take a look at three players who could have breakout seasons next year for the Pirates.  

Starling Marte, Left Field

In 2007 and at the age of 19, Starling Marte was drafted by the Pirates as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic.

Marte made his major league debut in 2012, batting .257 with five home runs and 17 RBI in just 47 games for the Pirates.  

A year later, he played in 135 games, batting .280 with 12 home runs and helping his team make it back to the postseason for the first time since 1992.  

This past season, his numbers continued to increase, as he batted .291 with 13 home runs and 56 RBI in 135 games.  

There is no question that Marte will be the starting left fielder heading into the 2015 regular season, but Marte still has not had the type of season he is capable of.  

Given the fact that his numbers continue to climb season by season, one would have to believe that Marte is primed for a big season in 2015.  It would not be surprising to see Marte hit between 16-20 home runs and drive in 70-85 runs, which the Pirates would gladly take.  

Gregory Polanco, Right Field

This is more of a long shot than the prediction about Marte, as Gregory Polanco still has a player in front of him on the Pirates depth chart in Travis Snider.  

Still, if he has a solid spring training, there is no reason Polanco should not go into the regular season patrolling right field for the Pirates.  After all, he was rated the No. 1 prospect in the Pirates’ farm system by Baseball America heading into last season.

Polanco played in 89 games for the Pirates in 2014, blasting seven home runs and collecting 33 RBI in 277 at-bats.  Polanco is capable of hitting for an average much higher than .235, which he showed toward the end of the regular season and when he first came up in June, hitting .288 that month.  

Could Polanco have a breakout season in 2015?  Absolutely, but he would have to be given the opportunity to start the majority of the games for the Pirates in right field.  

Francisco Cervelli, Catcher

In the seven seasons he has spent in the big leagues, Francisco Cervelli has served primarily as a backup catcher for the New York Yankees.  

That could have all changed for him, however, when he was traded by the Yankees to the Pirates in November.  

The Pirates knew they would not be able to bring back catcher Russell Martin as he was seeking a deal too expensive, so the organization went out and acquired a good catcher with potential in Cervelli.  

There are many teams in the majors that Cervelli could have been a legitimate starter on throughout the last seven seasons.  To his misfortune, he was a member of a team that already had a franchise catcher (first Jorge Posada, then Martin and finally Brian McCann last season).  

In 250 career games, Cervelli owns a batting average of .278 and a .348 on-base percentage, which are both very respectable averages for a catcher.  

He played in a career-high 93 games in 2010 for the Yankees, batting .271 with 38 RBI.  Last season, he batted .301 with two home runs and 13 RBI in 146 at-bats.  

It looks as if Cervelli will finally be given the opportunity to serve as the primary catcher for a big league team in 2015, and given his success in short bodies of work each season, he could be the next Pirates player to have a breakout season in 2015.  

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference. 

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The Pittsburgh Pirates currently are in a situation that a lot of teams would like to be in: They have a surplus of reliable and productive outfielders.  

The most well-known outfielder on Pittsburgh’s depth chart is obviously 2013 National League Most Valuable Player Andrew McCutchen, who has become the face of the franchise in his six-year career.  

Then there is left fielder Starling Marte, who has made a huge impact on the club’s performance through his first three big-league seasons, owning a career .282 batting average and a career-high 56 runs batted in in 2014.  

Marte is poised for a breakout season in 2015, as his numbers have steadily increased season by season. 

The problem (if you can call it that) is in right field, where Travis Snider is currently listed as the Pirates starter on the team’s website.

Snider had the best season of his seven-year career in 2014, batting .264 and blasting 13 home runs in 140 games played for the Pirates.  At the same time, however, the Pirates have an ever-so-promising young player in Gregory Polanco, who may be ready to patrol right field on a daily basis in 2015.  

According to a report from Baseball America, Polanco was rated the No. 1 prospect in the Pirates’ farm system entering the 2014 Major League Baseball regular season.  In 89 games with the Pirates, he hit .235 with seven home runs.  

On paper, an outfield consisting of Marte, McCutchen and Polanco could match up with just about any team in the National League.  So where would that leave Snider?

Of course, the Pirates performed just fine with Snider and Polanco platooning in right field throughout the second half of last season.  At the same time, however, with the Pirates’ needs for other position players and starting pitchers, it may be beneficial for the team to include Snider in a trade package, especially if the organization fails to sign any stellar pitchers during this free-agency period.

As former Pirates starting pitchers Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano listen to offers from teams interested around the league in free agency, the Pirates organization ought to be out looking for potential replacements, as there is a very real chance that at least one of those two starters will not return.  

The future pitching staff of the Pirates is shining brighter than ever with hope, as both Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon should make their major league debuts within the next couple of seasons.  Taillon, who missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April, may even break through sometime in 2015.  

Still, the Pirates will need to acquire at least one more proven starting pitcher before the regular season starts, as a rotation currently consisting of Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett, Jeff Locke and Vance Worley likely will not yield a division-best record.  

The Pirates could go out and trade for a starting pitcher in exchange for a proven veteran such as Snider and perhaps a less proven minor league player.  

One potential move that could make sense for both sides is a trade for Mat Latos of the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Snider and, as stated above, a minor league player.  

Latos is coming off an injury-plagued 2014 season in which he pitched in only 16 games for the Reds. However, he has pitched tremendously throughout his career, owning a 3.34 ERA and a 60-45 record in six seasons.  

Given the fact that Latos had elbow problems in 2014, this would be a risky trade for the Pirates, but it could also offer huge rewards.  More importantly, Latos is set to become a free agent after the 2015 season comes to a close, which is a reason for the Reds to consider taking something they can get in exchange for him instead of possibly losing his services in exchange for nothing in free agency next offseason.  

The move would also make sense for the Reds because the team does not exactly have a complete outfield right now, as their starting left fielder currently is Skip Schumaker, who averages about four home runs over a 162-game span.  

Platooning Snider with Schumaker would make a lot more sense for the Reds than it would for the Pirates, who have their future right fielder in Polanco.  So that is a move that certainly has to be considered a possibility for the Pirates.  

The Pirates are in great shape as far as their lineup goes.  Without a quality pitching rotation, however, winning enough games to make it back to the playoffs seems unlikely.  

While there are still months to go in free agency, the possibility does exist that the Pirates may not reel in any solid starting pitchers.  In that case, offering a player like Snider in a trade package for a starter may be the way to go.  

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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