Tag: Preview/Prediction

NL Playoff Standings 2016: Latest Wild Card Info, Team Records and More

With the three National League division races wrapped up and the top record in the league already well in hand, the remaining drama in the dwindling days of the 2016 regular season stems from the wild-card race.

The Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers have already clinched the NL Central, East and West, respectively, with the former pacing the majors with 101 wins and counting. 

As for the NL wild-card spots, the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants would make the playoffs if the season ended after Tuesday night’s action, but the St. Louis Cardinals are still in the hunt, just a game behind the Giants. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins are out of the chase as of Tuesday.

Here’s a look at the key NL standings heading into Wednesday. 

The three teams leading the NL wild-card chase won on Tuesday night, keeping the drama very much alive as the season winds to a close.

After losing 7-3 to the Miami Marlins on Monday in the series opener—as emotional a game as you’ll see due to it being the Marlins’ first since the tragic death of 24-year-old starting pitcher Jose Fernandez—the Mets rebounded to beat the exhausted home side 12-1 on Tuesday. 

Noah Syndergaard struck out eight in six innings of work, while Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes each hit two-run homers. The Mets have one more game against Miami before a travel day to face the lowly Philadelphia Phillies to close out the season. 

The Giants remain a game ahead of the Cardinals and a half-game behind the Mets, courtesy of a 12-3 walloping of the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday. After heading into the All-Star break with the best record in the majors, the Giants have been a disaster in the latter half of the season, with an implosion-prone bullpen perhaps the biggest culprit. 

San Francisco is trying to avoid a special kind of history by clinging to a wild-card spot, as journalist Wendy Thurm noted earlier in September: 

That spectacular first-half cushion this turbulent team built up has them in the playoff hunt with five games left to play. Though all five games are at home, the last three won’t be easy. The Giants have to play the rival Dodgers, who might still be looking to secure home-field advantage in the NLDS by surpassing the Nationals in the standings.

If the Giants do get into the playoffs, they can only hope that even-year magic miraculously takes over and saves them from getting bounced immediately from the postseason competition. 

The Cardinals kept up in the chase with a 12-5 win over the Cincinnati Reds. The key moment of the game was a fourth-inning grand slam from shortstop Aledmys Diaz, playing with a heavy heart after the death of Fernandez, a close friend. 

Here’s a look at Diaz‘s first career grand slam, per the MLB

“He just had a purpose,” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale. “He was doing something with a purpose. His mind was somewhere else, but in a good place.”

According to Nightengale, Diaz grew up with Fernandez in Cuba and spent Monday visiting the pitcher’s grieving family before returning to St. Louis to help his team close out the season. 

The Cardinals, who won 100 games last season and reached the NLCS, close out the regular season with two more games against the Reds and a three-game series at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who were eliminated from the playoff race on Tuesday, after losing 6-4 to the Cubs and seeing the Giants prevail against the Rockies.

Though they have been prone to sparring in the postseason in recent years, the Cardinals will be hoping the Dodgers can help them out by taking a game or two from San Francisco and allowing them to reach the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Updated 2016 MLB Playoff Odds with 5 Days to Go

Less than a week remains in the 2016 MLB regular season, and there are still a handful of playoff spots up for grabs.

On the American League side, the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers have clinched their respective divisions, and the Boston Red Sox have locked up a playoff spot with their magic number at one to clinch the AL East.

That leaves the Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros to duke it out for the two wild-card spots, with the Astros the furthest team out of the race at just 2.5 games back.

In the National League, the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers have already cemented themselves as division winners, with the Cubs locking up the best record in the league as well.

The wild card is anything but decided, though, as the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals are separated by just 1.5 games, and a crazy three-way-tie scenario still remains a realistic possibility.

At any rate, what follows is a look at each remaining contender’s chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:

  • Current standings
  • Recent performance
  • Future schedule
  • Injury concerns

So, with the regular season set to wrap up on Oct. 2, here is an updated division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all the remaining contenders from where they stood one week ago.

Begin Slideshow


Predicting Final Leaders for Each Top 2016 MLB Stat Category

Baseball lost an exuberant young star who would have frequented the top of pitching leaderboards for years.

On Sunday morning, Jose Fernandez and two other men were killed in a boating accident. The Miami Marlins pitcher, who was 24, had far more greatness on and off the field to offer.

It wouldn’t be right to leave out Fernandez when discussing 2016’s premier performers. His 2.86 ERA doesn’t fully depict his domination. Some better indicators of his pitching awesomeness include his 12.49 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and 2.29 fielding independent pitching (FIP), both of which lead all qualified starters. 

Yet those numbers are obsolete compared to the joy he brought everyone. As others fought over baseball’s unwritten code, he smiled. When things didn’t go well, he still smiled

His tragic death has created a massive void nobody can fill. As a result, the final look at the season’s category leaders features fewer pitching stats. It’s not the same without Fernandez. 

Begin Slideshow


2016 MLB Award Race Odds Updates with 1 Week to Go

While furious battles for MLB‘s four available wild-card berths will take place over the regular season’s final week, indirect competitions for the game’s highest individual honors are raging as well.

With only a handful of awards looking like they’re wrapped up, players (and managers) have one final chance to impress voters. Some will rise to the occasion, while others will fold under the pressure. These award races only make the last stretch all the more intriguing.

While statistics remain the driving force in calculating the odds on the pages that follow, both gut feeling and past voting trends played a part as well.

Begin Slideshow


MLB Playoff Picture 2016: Bracket, Odds, Wild-Card Standings Entering Last Week

With just over one week left in the long slog that is the MLB regular season, the playoff pictures in both leagues are becoming clearer with each passing day. Each of the six division races is all but over, but teams in both the American League and National League continue to claw at each other’s heels in their final attempts to secure wild-card spots. 

In the AL, the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians have firm holds on their respective divisions, and the Texas Rangers have already clinched the AL West title. Meanwhile, the division winners are all locked in for the NL playoffs. The Washington NationalsChicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers will represent the East, Central and West, respectively, after the Dodgers clinched the NL West Sunday evening. 

Now, superstition-fueled history tells us that the San Francisco Giants should be the 2016 World Series champions. After all, they win the Fall Classic every two years, or at least they have on alternating years since 2010. If San Francisco wants a shot at keeping that trend alive, though, they’ll have to fight off the St. Louis Cardinals, who trail the Giants by just a half-game for the second wild-card spot and are 1.5 games behind the New York Mets.  

If San Francisco can snag a wild-card spot, it will enter the slugfest that will be the 2016 MLB playoffs. There will be no easy game or series for the Giants or any postseason team, and the last club standing will have had to prove it is the undisputed champion among the league’s behemoths. 

Let’s take a look at the updated playoff picture and standings.

   

American League

Perhaps the biggest surprise out of this group is the Indians, who strung together an inspired 14-game winning streak that just so happened to coincide with the Cleveland Cavaliers’ remarkable NBA championship in June. At 90-65 through Sunday’s action, the Indians have left the Detroit Tigers in the rearview mirror as they look to claim the AL Central led by studs such as All-Star Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana

Cleveland acquired reliever Andrew Miller just before the trade deadline from the New York Yankees for a troop of prospects, and since changing teams, Miller has given up just five earned runs in 22 games. He has bolstered an already-impressive bullpen for the Indians.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have just recently run away with the AL East. The Yankees abruptly faded from the playoff picture, while the Orioles and Blue Jays have been relegated to competing for the right to host the AL Wild Card Game. Boston, which has now won 11 straight games, has been buoyed by its trove of heavy hitters, led by the indefatigable David Ortiz (clap-clap, point to sky).

Ortiz, who plans to retire after this season, is absolutely mashing the ball in 2016, hitting .321 with 37 home runs and 124 RBI. During the All-Star break, Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout told Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (via Joe Rodgers of Omnisport for Sporting News) he wasn’t sold that Big Papi would actually hang it up at year’s end, although due to his aching body, Ortiz maintains he will retire. 

Despite Ortiz’s monster stats, I’d be remiss not to mention Red Sox standouts Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts. And still, the list goes on, making Boston a serious threat come October in spite of its occasional shaky pitching. 

The Rangers boast an offense that is possibly more impressive than that of the Red Sox. Like Cleveland, Texas took advantage of the Yankees’ mediocrity back in July by acquiring Carlos Beltran. Beltran joined Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor and Ian Desmond in Texas’ potent offensive attack.

Texas and Boston both boast records of 92-64 after Sunday’s games, which is tied for the best record in the American League, so let me clarify why the Rangers are still slotted as the top seed above.

Should both teams finish the season with the same record that is tops among their AL foes, the team with home-field advantage would be the squad that won the head-to-head season series. However, the Red Sox and Rangers each won three of the six meetings this season. Next, seeding is determined by which team has a greater winning percentage in games against divisional opponents. The Rangers hold a slight edge in that category and thus would be the AL’s No. 1 seed if the playoffs began today. 

Lastly, the Blue Jays and Orioles aren’t yet safe in their spots in the standings. The Tigers trail Baltimore by just 1.5 games, and the Seattle Mariners are still only 2.5 games out of the second wild-card spot. Although they currently stand to host the Wild Card Game, the Blue Jays can’t be too happy about not yet securing their place in the postseason this late in the campaign after reaching the ALCS last year.

   

National League

So, is this the year the Cubs finally exorcise their demons and win the World Series? With a startling record of 99-56 entering the season’s final stretch, the baseball community has to fear the Cubbies this postseason. It is the first time since 1935 that Chicago has posted at least 99 victories, although, as you know, the Cubs didn’t win the World Series that year. 

The club’s offense is led by young guns Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, who have combined for 69 homers and 204 RBI so far in 2016. As for their pitching staff, the Cubs have relied heavily on Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks to win games this year, and they’ve done just that. The Cubs could meet up with the Mets in the NLDS if New York makes it past the Wild Card Game, which would provide a rematch of the 2015 NLCS

Speaking of the Mets, it is their former second baseman, Daniel Murphy, who has continued his postseason magic from a year ago all season long, but now he plays for his old division rival, the Washington Nationals.

Murphy has been more productive than the Nats ever could have hoped during an injury-plagued season for reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper. Murphy is hitting .347 with 25 long balls and 104 RBI and will need to continue to lead the Nationals as they make a push toward World Series baseball. 

Out west, a familiar cast of characters propelled the Dodgers to a fourth consecutive NL West title. Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Turner have carried the bulk of the offensive burden, and the pitching staff responded well after the departure of Zack Greinke to Arizona during the offseason and even as ace Clayton Kershaw missed some time due to injury. 

As for the wild-card race, the Mets might be the most intriguing story. After a thrilling run to the World Series last year, New York fell flat against the Kansas City Royals. There were times during this season when it didn’t look like the Mets would even make it back to the playoffs, especially as injuries sidelined many of their high-powered arms.

After a 17-0 romping of the Phillies on Sunday, the Mets seem to have caught fire—or at least sparked some embers as the postseason nears. If they can keep it up, they will inspire some panic in their wild-card opponent, which figures to be either San Francisco or St. Louis.

   

World Series Odds

According to Odds Shark, the Cubs (+300; bet $100 to win $300) are the current betting favorites to win it all. These teams follow: 

Washington Nationals: +500 

San Francisco Giants: +550

Cleveland Indians: +650

Texas Rangers: +750

Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers: +1200

Toronto Blue Jays: +1400 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Updated Round-by-Round 2016 MLB Playoff Predictions Heading into Final Week

We are less than two weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB playoffs, with the AL Wild Card Game set to be played on Oct. 4 and the NL Wild Card Game slated for Oct. 5.

Anything can happen in Octoberas we’ve seen time and againand trying to predict how the postseason will shake out is often an exercise in futility.

That being said, it’s still fun to try to guess the results before the postseason festivities begin, and that’s exactly what we’ve done here.

What follows are round-by-round predictions for how the 2016 MLB playoffs will turn out, complete with both relevant regular-season statistics and wildly specific postseason predictions on both a team and individual level.

Enjoy.

Begin Slideshow


MLB Free Agency 2016-17: Early Look at One Realistic Fit for Every Team

There is still an exciting month of playoff baseball separating us from what promises to be another busy offseason around the league, but it’s never too early to start looking ahead at how free agency might play out.

This year’s free-agent class is headlined by a number of notable bats.

Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, Neil Walker and Justin Turner are all headed for significant multiyear deals, while Martin Prado, Kendrys Morales, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli, Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss should also garner plenty of interest.

The starting pitching side of things is a different story.

Rich Hill and Jeremy Hellickson are the top dogs among a starting pitching class that also features the likes of Andrew Cashner, Doug Fister, Ivan Nova and Bartolo Colon.

The deepest market is the relievers.

Three of the league’s elite closers in Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon will be available, along with guys like Neftali Feliz, Brad Ziegler, Sergio Romo, Joe Blanton and Travis Wood.

As a preview of sorts for the offseason ahead, what follows is a look at one realistic free-agent fit for all 30 MLB teams.

These projected fits are a mixture of notable re-signings and new additions and were reached with a combination of rumors from around the league and speculation on my part based on team needs and past free-agency trends.

Obviously, a lot can change between now and the start of free agency. For now, here’s a look ahead at some potential offseason free-agency fits.

Begin Slideshow


MLB Playoff Picture 2016: Predicting Wild-Card Races and Potential Bracket

When MLB added a second wild-card spot for each league in 2012, this is exactly what it wanted.

Less than two weeks remain before the 2016 regular season ends, but all four bids in the American League and National League Wild Card Games are still up for grabs. While three teams fight furiously for a shot at the NL play-in game, multiple teams still lurk in the AL picture.

If any ties occur, clubs might need to break the stalemate with an elimination game before the postseason elimination game. A three-team AL tie would especially prove problematic, as the Wild Card Game is scheduled for Oct. 4—two days after the season ends.

All six division leaders will likely clinch with time to spare, so let’s focus on the chaotic wild-card races. Playoff probabilities are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus

   

American League

Let’s make this easier and assume the Boston Red Sox wrap up the AL East. While there’s enough time to squander a five-game lead, they boast baseball’s best offense and an AL-best plus-186 run differential.

That leaves the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles vying for wild-card bids, both of which they control. Each club faces a tough closing schedule, which includes a three-game series against each other next week.

Although buoyed by their star sluggers, the Blue Jays’ starting rotation leads the AL in ERA. Despite a strong second half from Kevin Gausman, the Orioles would rank last if not for the putrid Minnesota Twins.

Solid starting staff aside, the Blue Jays would love to get Jose Bautista going. The veteran slugger is hitting .230/.358/.437 during an injury-infested season, but he has reached base in 29 straight games. He didn’t loiter there long on Wednesday, hitting a game-tying home run in the ninth against the Seattle Mariners, who won in extra innings.

Seattle looked down for the count before rattling off eight consecutive wins earlier this month. Dropping two of three to the Houston Astros and Blue Jays greatly derailed its playoff chances. Now the Astros and Detroit Tigers represent bigger threats.

Detroit has the most favorable schedule of the bunch, especially if the Cleveland Indians take it easy with the AL Central well in hand. The Tigers have also, however, played the last two games without Ian Kinsler (concussion) and Victor Martinez (knee). 

The catalyst to Detroit’s offense, Kinsler has hit 26 homers with an .804 OPS and 106 runs scored. He commented on his concussion to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

“It’s something where you feel a little pressure maybe,” he said. “It’s just not normal. You don’t feel normal.” 

Even while facing the Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves, the top-heavy Tigers need all hands on deck to mount a comeback. Also hurting their cause, rookie Michael Fulmer has regressed from an unsustainable hot start, notching a 4.00 second-half ERA. 

The Astros are situated to poach the second spot. They play seven of their final 10 games against the Los Angeles Angels, whom they have defeated 11 of 12 times this season. Although they probably won’t go much further without Dallas Keuchel, look for them to escape the scrum and face Toronto in the Wild Card Game.

   

National League

At a quick glance, the New York Mets appear in the worst shape among the trio competing to survive the wild-card frenzy. Their plus-20 run differential unfitting of an 80-72 team trails the San Francisco Giants (+59) and St. Louis Cardinals (+60) considerably. Not having David Wright, Neil Walker, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom also hurts.

Fortunately for last year’s NL champs, their schedule since Aug. 25 has consisted of all but six games—which they split against the NL East-leading Washington Nationals—against anyone with a winning record. They have capitalized, since righting a sinking ship with a 16-7 record.

Alas, they hit a roadblock, getting swept by the Atlanta Braves. They have 10 games to heat up against the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, and Marlins ace Jose Fernandez is not scheduled to start any of their three matchups.

New York’s comeback received a helping hand from the Giants’ collapse. Entering the All-Star break at an MLB-best 57-33, San Francisco has since gone 23-39.

The Giants are still dangerous if they can make the Wild Card Game or even force a three-team tie. Their bullpen has pitched well during their second-half collapse, but it receives the blame as a result of stumbling in key spots. While those 12 blown saves have sparked the free-fall, a Giants offense gone terribly sour has scored the fewest runs since the All-Star break. 

San Francisco can’t point to any major injuries like the Mets and Cardinals—who are currently without Lance Lynn and Matt Holliday and missed Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz and Michael Wacha for chunks of the season. The Giants are remarkably healthy, but they still stink.

“The first-half Giants were the [Chicago] Cubs, the second-half Giants are the Twins, and they’re essentially the exact same team,” Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan wrote. “This does not make any sense.”

After getting demolished by the Colorado Rockies, the Cardinals must hope the Cubs don’t care about ousting their division foes. With the division and home-field advantage firmly wrapped up, they have nothing on the line but pride.

As the rest of the rotation struggles, St. Louis needs two big outings from Alex Reyes. The highly touted rookie tossed seven shutout frames in Sunday’s enormous win over San Francisco. That was his third career start.

In the event of a three-team tie, the Cardinals would currently host the Mets—determined by inner-division records since they split their head-to-head encounters—for the first spot. The loser would then face San Francisco for the second ticket into the NL Wild Card Game.

Even though they’re baseball’s best team on the road, this scenario bodes well for the Cardinals. Yet look for the Mets to exploit a Phillies-heavy schedule to outright claim one spot, while the Giants save the season with strong showings against the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Updated 2016 MLB Playoff Odds with 2 Weeks Remaining

Roughly two weeks are left in the 2016 MLB regular season, and while the playoff picture is taking shape, there is still a lot to be decided before October.

The American League is home to 10 teams that can call themselves legitimate contenders. The Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers have a strong hold on their respective division leads and the Boston Red Sox have started to put some ground between themselves and the rest of the AL East.

However, the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are all still within striking distance of claiming a wild card spot, with the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals still holding onto a slim hope as well.

The National League picture is not as congested, with six clubs currently battling it out for five spots. The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are locks to claim their respective division crowns, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are a safe bet to be playing in October in some capacity.

Meanwhile, the wild card standings show a three-way tie between the San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets entering play on Wednesday, in what is shaping up to be a thrilling finish.

At any rate, what follows is a look at each club’s chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:

  • Current standings
  • Recent performance
  • Future schedule
  • Injury concerns

So, with the regular season set to wrap up on Oct. 2, here is an updated division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all the remaining contenders from where they stood one week ago.

Begin Slideshow


Explaining, Predicting Outcomes of MLB’s Wackiest 2016 Tiebreaker Scenarios

MLB‘s 162-game regular season might not prove enough to set the playoff picture.

In order to manufacture more drama, MLB instituted a second wild-card spot and one-game matchup for entry into the division series. The initiative has paid dividends this season, when 10 teams remain five or fewer games from one of those spots.

As cruel as it seems to bookend sports’ longest season with an elimination playoff game, things could delve into further chaos if the season ends in any ties. Some teams may have to play a winner-take-all matchup for a chance at another winner-take-all game.

The close wild-card pictures create some dizzying possibilities. With a tight American League East battle also containing wild-card implications, season stalemates would produce utter madness.

Sit down. Take a deep breath. Actually, maybe grab a drink first. Some of these confusing scenarios should require a prerequisite course. With help from MLB.com, let’s explain some possible tiebreakers.

Begin Slideshow


Copyright © 1996-2010 Kuzul. All rights reserved.
iDream theme by Templates Next | Powered by WordPress