Tag: Preview/Prediction

Ranking the Top 10 Potential 2016 MLB Trade Deadline Steals

With less than two weeks until MLB‘s non-waiver trade deadline, everyone now knows the top candidates to move.

Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Rich Hill, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller will light the rumor mill on fire leading up to August 1. Some of those guys will stay put, and the ones who go will cost a pretty penny and some valuable prospects.

Not every contender has the deep pockets or trade capital to pull off the megadeal. Those teams must instead search for bargains among the mid-tier trade chips. If they’re lucky, perhaps they can successfully gamble on a struggling talent for cents on the dollar.

This isn’t a look at the top trade options, but instead the best potential values among players with a feasible chance of changing teams. The order considers age, contracts and the likely asking price along with the person’s current performance, so players are not ranked according to overall worth in a vacuum.

Nobody listed is the lone missing piece to a championship, but these guys can help without breaking the bank.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Latest Buzz on Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Gonzalez and More

While the New York Yankees have failed to play good baseball for much of the season, they have hovered around the .500 mark in 2016. That record has allowed them to stay within hailing distance of the second wild-card spot in the American League.

However, they may be on the verge of dropping out of a realistic position to earn that postseason spot, and if they do, Fox Sports insider Ken Rosenthal reported they will be willing to part with some of their key talent before the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

The biggest trading chip they have is fireballing reliever Aroldis Chapman, who is a free agent at the end of the season. Chapman is the kind of closer who can help a playoff team become dominant when he has the ball in the ninth inning.

Once the Yankees make the determination that they are going to move Chapman, look for general manager Brian Cashman to work the phones in an effort to drive up the bidding for a pitcher who is capable of throwing 104 mph or higher and striking out the side in a key situation.

All-Star Carlos Beltran is another Yankee who is likely to be moved, according to Rosenthal. Beltran is having a productive season, hitting .297 with 19 home runs, 58 RBI and a .542 slugging percentage, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Beltran has also been an exceptional postseason hitter throughout his long career. He has a lifetime .332 batting average along with 16 home runs and 40 RBI. That playoff success could allow Cashman to get a better return for the 39-year-old outfielder.

This is an unusual position, because the Yankees have always been interested in adding to their team as they prepare for the playoffs. But the team has not been able to sustain momentum this year, and that’s why Cashman may ultimately have to sell off assets like Chapman, Beltran and perhaps a few others.

The Yankees and the Kansas City Royals have already talked about a trade involving Beltran, according to George A. King III of the New York Post. Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar was one of the names mentioned in that proposed trade.

Carlos Gonzalez often sees his name in trade-rumor stories, but it seems far more likely that the Colorado Rockies will hold on to him at this point.

According to Rosenthal, the Rockies have received calls and offers (37-second mark) for Gonzalez, but general manager Jeff Bridich has not followed through on any of those offers. Rosenthal said Colorado will hold on to Gonzalez rather than trade him at this point because they have a better chance to contend by 2017 with him than without him.

Gonzalez is under contract through 2017, and so is Bridich. It may simply be a matter of self-interest for the Colorado general manager.

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MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Odds, Analysis

The New York Mets (49-42) have won all four meetings with the Chicago Cubs (55-36) so far this season and eight in a row overall dating back to last year’s National League Championship Series as they battle Monday in the first of three games at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are coming off a series win over the Texas Rangers and are listed as 20-33 betting favorites (wager $165 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

Chicago dropped the series finale to Texas 4-1 on Sunday after winning the first two games by a combined score of 9-1. The Cubs had entered the All-Star break losing 15 of their previous 21 games but now own an eight-game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

Meanwhile, New York is six games back of the Washington Nationals in the NL East following a series victory against the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend.

The Mets will send 25-year-old Steven Matz (7-5, 3.38 ERA) to the mound looking to extend the series winning streak against Chicago to nine.

Matz did not pitch well in his first start against the Cubs at home June 30, walking away with a no-decision in an eventual 4-3 win after giving up all three runs and seven hits in 5.1 innings. He threw 104 pitches and walked three batters while striking out six.

The total went under in that game, but the over is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings overall, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database.

The Cubs will counter with lefty Jon Lester (9-4, 3.01 ERA), who has seen his team outscored 26-9 in the last two games he has started. They started the year 11-3 in Lester’s first 14 outings but are 1-3 in his last four, with him failing to earn a victory during that stretch.

Lester got bombed in his lone appearance against New York in 2016, surrendering a season-high eight runs and nine hits in only 1.1 innings of a 14-3 loss at Citi Field on July 3. He has been much better at home though, going 4-2 in eight starts with a 2.32 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting just .200 against him at Wrigley.

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Post-All-Star Break MLB Predictions for 2016 Trades, Playoff Races and More

You can’t predict baseball.

Well, not with that attitude.

MLB resumed action Friday, starting the unofficial second half to 2016. Sure, every team has played more than 81 games, but the four-day reprieve created the feel of a fresh beginning.

Of course, not everything went according to plan before the All-Star break. Michael Saunders (16) has more home runs than Jose Bautista (12), and Tanner Roark (3.01) owns a lower ERA than Max Scherzer (3.03). Bartolo Colon homered. And obviously everyone knew Odubel Herrera, Adam Duvall, Steven Wright, Brad Brach and Eduardo Nunez would earn All-Star bids.

More wild events will occur over the next few months. Role players will play like stars and vice versa. Maybe Colon will hit a triple.

Let’s not go down the wormhole of those bold predictions. Instead, let’s examine some plots with a well-written first act that will pay off down the stretch. From deadline deals to pennant races to award battles, the meaty storylines are just beginning to percolate.

With an interest in making reasonable claims, these prognostications won’t stray into postseason territory. Too many variables exist in a short series to guess how they will unfold in July.

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MLB Betting Preview: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Odds, Analysis

The New York Yankees (44-44) have not enjoyed much success against the Boston Red Sox (49-38) so far this season but will try to move one step closer to evening the score when they host their American League East rivals in the opener of a three-game series Friday.

The Yankees have dropped four of the first six meetings this year, although they are listed as solid -140 favorites (bet $140 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark with Michael Pineda (3-8, 5.38 ERA) on the mound for Friday.

Pineda had been pitching better recently until he suffered his eighth loss on the road against the Chicago White Sox last Wednesday. The big righty gave up five runs and five hits in six innings of a 5-0 loss at Chicago with three walks and five strikeouts.

New York had won in each of his previous three starts, as he allowed five earned runs in 17.1 innings with four walks and 29 strikeouts. He is 0-1 in two starts versus the Red Sox in 2016 with a 3.27 ERA, walking four and striking out seven in 11 innings.

Opposing Pineda for Boston will be Steven Wright (10-5, 2.68 ERA), who has struggled of late but has still seen his team emerge victorious. The 31-year-old knuckleballer has given up 10 runs and 17 hits in 11 innings over his past two starts, with the Red Sox winning both times.

Wright has pitched much better on the road this season with a 4-4 mark and 1.88 ERA, as opposing batters have hit only .193 against him on the road.

Based on how each pitcher has performed lately, this pitching matchup would seem to have high-scoring affair written all over it, although the recent series history between the teams says otherwise. The under is 4-2-1 in the past seven meetings dating back to last season.

Wright turned in a dominant outing in his lone start versus the Yankees on the road back on May 8, allowing one run and three hits in earning a complete-game victory with one walk and seven strikeouts. That game finished under in a 5-1 win for Boston, a team that enters the second half of the season at +1400 on the odds to win the World Series.

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World Series Odds Update: Cubs Favorites on Betting Futures to Start 2nd Half

The Chicago Cubs (53-35) lost 15 of their last 21 games heading into the MLB All-Star break, including nine of 11, but they are still +375 favorites (bet $100 to win $375) to end their championship drought at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

The Cubs own a seven-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals (46-42) in the National League Central and are 7.5 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-43), two teams that finished with better records a year ago but ended up losing to Chicago in the playoffs.

The Cardinals (+3300 to win the World Series) are at their lowest point of the season from a betting perspective after sitting at +1800 back on April 29.

Meanwhile, the Pirates (+5000) are even lower and were +2000 on April 29, when the Cubs were +500.

The division’s Milwaukee Brewers (38-49) and Cincinnati Reds (32-57) have virtually no shot to win the World Series right now at +50000 and +200000, respectively.

Two other division leaders in the league look to be Chicago’s top competition for the pennant. The NL West-leading San Francisco Giants (57-33) are the second choice to win the World Series at +550, and the NL East-leading Washington Nationals (54-36) are +900.

The Giants have won the World Series in the past three even-numbered years and were as high as +1400 to win it this year on April 29.

The Nationals opened the season at +1800 on April 6 and were the +750 second choice on April 29.

The American League won home-field advantage in the World Series for the fourth consecutive year on Tuesday with a 4-2 victory in the 87th MLB All-Star Game. That worked out well last season for the Kansas City Royals (45-43), who won the World Series after taking the AL Central with a 95-67 mark.

The Royals are +2000 to repeat on the World Series odds and will likely need to overtake the Cleveland Indians (52-36) to make the playoffs this year. The Indians went 81-80 a year ago, and they are the +750 fourth choice to win the World Series behind another division leader from the AL in the Texas Rangers (54-36).

The Rangers are +700 to win the World Series and have appeared in it twice in the previous six seasons. They lost both times, though, falling to San Francisco in 2010 and St. Louis in 2011.

The Toronto Blue Jays (51-40) beat Texas in last year’s AL Divisional Series, and they are among three teams in the AL East that are more than 10 games over .500.

The Blue Jays are +1000 to win the World Series, ahead of both the division-leading Baltimore Orioles (51-36) and Boston Red Sox (49-38), who are each +1400. The Orioles have been one of the biggest movers on those odds since the season started.

        

Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Breaking Down All 30 MLB Teams’ Trade Shopping Lists at 2016 Midseason Point

No, it’s not Christmas in July, but it might as well be the holiday season. For in every front office around MLB, there’s a general manager doing laps around his desk with a shopping list of gifts he wants to put bows on and deliver to his team’s clubhouse.

The problem is that many of those shopping lists look the same, and there’s going to be a mad dash, if not an all-out bidding war, as teams try to add the pieces they need for the stretch.

Not every team is looking to buy in the traditional sense. Clubs that are on the fringes of contention—or out of the playoff picture completely—are looking to buy controllable assets who could be part of a future run at postseason glory by selling off expendable pieces.

On the pages that follow, we’ll look at what every team is looking to do and, in some cases, identify players who could be on those shopping lists. Keep in mind these are partial lists. Just because a player’s name isn’t mentioned doesn’t mean he’s not a potential addition for your favorite club.

Let’s get started.

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MLB All-Star Game 2016: Start Time, Ticket Info, Rosters for Midsummer Classic

The rosters for the 2016 Midsummer Classic are set, and Tuesday night (8 p.m. ET) we’ll see the American League and National League vie for World Series home-field advantage at Petco Park.

Or, rather, we’ll see the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox go head-to-head with a few friends they brought along. The Cubs are responsible for four NL starters, making up the entire infield.

Anthony Rizzo will man first base, Ben Zobrist’s at second, Kris Bryant’s at third and Addison Russell is at short. It’s the second time in history a team has pulled off this feat. Center fielder Dexter Fowler was originally scheduled to start but was replaced on the roster by Carlos Gonzalez. It nonetheless feels a lot like the Cubs just picked up some pals for a pickup game.

Those pals include MVP winners Bryce Harper and Buster Posey, but still. Harper will be joined by Marcell Ozuna and Gonzalez in the starting outfield. 

“Organizationally, it speaks to what’s been done here the last several years,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said, per ESPN.com. “I take zero credit for that. It’s great scouting and development on the part of the Cubs.”

Full rosters available at MLB.com.

Pitchers Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester were also selected to the roster, giving Chicago an MLB-high seven All-Stars.

“I’ve been through a lot,” Arrieta, the defending NL Cy Young winner and first-time All-Star, said. “A lot of hard work started to pay off and my career has started to move in a positive direction over the past couple years. It’s a byproduct of the hard work.”

The AL team is spearheaded by six Red Sox, including four in the starting lineup. Outfielders Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts were selected for their first time, while David Ortiz earned an even 10th appearance in his final MLB season.

“There’s not going to be another time, so I’m just going to go out there, have fun and make sure I give the fans what they want who vote for David Ortiz and enjoy watching me,” Ortiz said, per Stephen Hewitt of the Boston Herald.

Reliever Craig Kimbrel and starter Steven Wright were also named to the team. Kimbrel will not play due to injury. 

The AL has by far the most experienced team. Between Miguel Cabrera (11), Ortiz (10), Carlos Beltran (nine) Robinson Cano (seven), Chris Sale (five) and Mike Trout (five) they have the six highest All-Star selection totals.

Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw was the only NL representative with more than four Midsummer Classics under his belt. However, Kershaw pulled out due to injury. No NL player actually on the roster has more than four appearances.

The NL does have perhaps the most notable story: Bartolo Colon’s surprise All-Star appearance. The 43-year-old, who is MLB’s oldest player, ranks among the most elderly to ever play in the Midsummer Classic. He would be the third-oldest pitcher ever if he gets a chance to play, behind only Mariano Rivera and Satchel Paige.

The NL will hope Colon and others end the AL’s three-game winning streak. The AL has walked away with 10 of the 13 All-Star Games since the fateful tie in 2002; 15 of the last 18 games with an actual finish have gone the AL’s way.

Last-minute tickets for the MLB All-Star Game can be found at ScoreBig.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2016 MLB All-Star Game Roster: Starting Pitchers and Lineup for AL and NL Squads

MLB will display a talent renaissance during Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, which will be headlined by up-and-coming studs.

The Midsummer Classic starters aren’t much older than Sunday’s MLB Futures Game participants. In fact, 23-year-old Bryce Harper is younger than 10 of those minor league stars who were fighting to sit at the big kids’ table.

Outside of elder statesman David Ortiz, every American League starter is 27 or younger. In all, 14 of the 20 starters are no older than 26.

Instead of honoring popular veterans well past their primes—congratulations on tying the knot, Derek Jeter—the fans recognized baseball’s burgeoning crop of talent carrying the present and representing the future.

Let’s take a look at the finalized rosters and starting lineups for Tuesday night’s exhibition contest with real-world repercussions:

         

American League

In his final All-Star Game, Ortiz will babysit a loaded young lineup that features three Boston Red Sox teammates. If baseball’s best lineup wasn’t already stacked enough, the best of Boston’s batting order joins Jose Altuve, Mike Trout and Manny Machado.

This is what an All-Star lineup looks like when fans don’t go off the grid. Kansas City Royals skipper Ned Yost was gifted a group with contact, power and speed. Salvador Perez is the only starter batting below .295, and he’s a catcher with a .500 slugging percentage and excellent defensive skills. 

Yost could have picked the batting order out of a hat—Kansas City’s lineups occasionally have that look—and it would do just fine.

However, he faced a tougher decision regarding which pitcher to start. Having few choices to begin with, he lost a prime contender in late scratch Danny Salazar (elbow). With a staff dominated by relievers, he had limited options—unless he were to make the unconventional decision to open with one of his many late-inning specialists.

Instead, he chose one of baseball’s most respected aces: Chicago White Sox southpaw Chris Sale. During Monday’s media session, Yost referenced his familiarity with the American League Central foe, per CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes:

For the few simpletons out there who still regard wins as the pinnacle of pitcher evaluation, this year’s 14-win campaign is better than Sale’s 12-win 2014 and 13-win 2015. Yet he’s having a letdown season for his astronomically high standards.

His 3.38 ERA, which would be a personal high if not for last year’s 3.41, is above his career 2.97 mark. While his peripherals indicate better 2015 production, his 8.86 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.74 FIP both represent the worst rates of his career.

Perhaps Yost made up his mind before Sale relinquished eight runs to the Atlanta Braves, baseball’s worst offense by nearly every metric. In his defense, the next-best choice was knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has allowed 18 runs over his last three starts.

Like Yost’s Royals, the AL squad is still in good shape if it can hand its loaded bullpen a lead. That could mean jumping ahead after three or four frames.

         

National League

New York Mets manager Terry Collins faced an extra decision. The fans don’t select the National League’s designated hitter, but the game will utilize one despite taking place in the San Diego Padres’ home. 

He could have selected former Mets star Daniel Murphy, who has tormented his old club with seven home runs and 21 RBI this year (after finishing with six apiece in 2011 and 2012). The Washington Nationals second baseman boasts an MLB-best .348 batting average with a career-high 17 homers and .985 OPS.

Instead, local attendees will get something to cheer for when Padres first baseman Wil Myers starts and bats in the cleanup spot. With most of his early career marred by injuries, the 25-year-old has enjoyed a breakout year with 19 homers, 15 steals and an .873 OPS.

Collins’ entire infield can relate to his Murphy-induced pain, as all four members represent the Chicago Cubs. Although the injured Dexter Fowler (hamstring) won’t join them, the team will still have an unusually big impact on the Midsummer Classic, as the USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale noted:

Voted into the starting lineup, Fowler and Yoenis Cespedes will sit out to the benefit of Carlos Gonzalez and Marcell Ozuna. The Colorado Rockies outfielder, who was eliminated in the first round of Monday night’s Home Run Derby, will hope to find better success away from Coors Field than his .737 first-half OPS. Ozuna, meanwhile, deserved to start all along with a 3.3 WAR, which is tied with Harper for the second-best among NL outfielders.

The reigning MVP has an opportunity to sway home-field advantage in the World Series on Tuesday night. But he told MLB Network on Monday night that he wishes he didn’t, courtesy of Rotoworld’s D.J. Short:

At first, Collins had the easiest starting pitching choice in the world thanks to Clayton Kershaw’s unbelievable first half. But then he landed on the disabled list (back). Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg were all enticing alternatives before getting replaced. Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester are slumping too much to join their Cubs teammates.

That left Johnny Cueto and Jose Fernandez as the top aces standing, and Collins selected the San Francisco Giants veteran. Let’s just pretend Cueto earned the nod on his 2.47 ERA and 2.70 FIP rather than his 13-1 record.

It’s probably for the best, as letting Fernandez loose for one inning later in the game should spark magic.

       

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB All-Star Game 2016: AL, NL Rosters and Final Predictions

The 2016 Major League Baseball All-Star Game is nearly here, and the star-studded festivities shouldn’t disappoint when things get underway Tuesday night from Petco Park in San Diego.

But before the first pitch flies at 8 p.m. ET on Fox, it’s worth taking some time to acquaint yourself with this year’s rosters and starting lineups, which you can view below courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info on Twitter: 

So as time ticks down in advance of the Midsummer Classic, here’s a rundown of who to keep an eye on when it comes to the National League and American League sides. 

    

National League Roster

It’s hard to discuss this year’s NL roster and not marvel at the proliferation of Chicago Cubs players in the starting lineup.

Most notably, the Cubs are fielding the entire starting infield, with first baseman Anthony Rizzo, second baseman Ben Zobrist, third baseman Kris Bryant and shortstop Addison Russell hoping to bring some Wrigley Field magic to Petco Park. 

Russell in particular will be looking to make good on his nod since it’s snapping a decades-long drought, per ESPN Stats & Info: 

In terms of historical significance, All-Star feats don’t get much more rare than what the Cubs have accomplished. According to ESPN.com, Chicago is just the second team in history to send its four starting infielders to the Midsummer Classic as starters. The only other club to boast such status was the 1963 St. Louis Cardinals. 

“It’s an honor, and to have a lot of my teammates there with me will make it even more fun,” Bryant said, per ESPN.com. “Just having your teammates and friends there will make it more special. The nerves probably won’t be there as much as last year. You just look around and it’s a normal game.”

Dexter Fowler would have given Chicago a hefty share of the starting positions on the NL side, but a hamstring injury has sidelined him for the midseason spectacular. And with Yoenis Cespedes (quad) of the New York Mets also out, the Miami Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna and the Colorado Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez will occupy starting positions in the outfield Tuesday evening, according to an official press release from MLB

The Washington Nationals’ Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos have been scorching-hot at the plate throughout the first half of the season, and their combined pop off the bench could help the NL solve a wicked AL pitching staff led by starter Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox. 

    

American League Roster

Like the Cubs in the NL, the Boston Red Sox reign supreme in the AL.  

And while Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts may drive the hype machine as the AL seeks its fourth straight win with home-field advantage in the World Series up for grabs, David Ortiz should bask in the spotlight as he gets set to ride off into the sunset. 

He spoke about playing in his last All-Star Game, per ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber:

Having a break is great, you know what I’m saying? But it’s not like I’m going to another All-Star Game as a player. Getting around 3 million votes, that’s a lot of people that would like to see you out there. That’s something I really appreciate, that people take their time to vote for myself and my teammates and want us to be there as a massive group.

Tuesday will mark Ortiz’s 10th All-Star appearance, and it will serve not only as validation of his personal success this year, but as recognition of everything he’s accomplished over the course of an illustrious and hardware-clad career. 

Joining Boston’s talented group in Southern California will be a slew of Baltimore Orioles sluggers, several of whom have the power necessary to tilt the game in the AL’s favor at a moment’s notice. 

Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo have both shone to this point in the season, and their vision at the plate figures to be an invaluable resource for an AL side that will be looking to keep some of MLB’s hottest arms at bay. 

    

Prediction

Both squads are plenty stacked, so trying to nitpick with regard to which has the edge from a micro perspective is a somewhat futile practice. 

But if there’s one macro factor that could decide things, it’s the NL’s outrageous pitching staff led by Jake Arrieta, Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto and Jose Fernandez, among others. 

Spreading those four pitchers out over nine innings would be scary enough, but the fact that manager Terry Collins will also have the likes of Jon Lester, Jeurys Familia, Kenley Jansen and Drew Pomeranz at his disposal means there’s some serious potential for the NL to keep the AL in check throughout the evening. 

It may not be the most thrilling affair, but if Collins’ arms pitch up to par, the National League could be staring at its first All-Star Game win since 2012. 

 

Prediction: National League 5, American League 3

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