Tag: Preview/Prediction

Predicting the 2016 MLB All-Star Game Starting Lineups

The 2016 MLB All-Star Game is rapidly approaching, and this year’s ballot closes Thursday, with the league announcing the full rosters next Tuesday.

Major League Baseball released a final voting update Monday afternoon, which is available courtesy of CBS Sports‘ Mike Axisa.

In the latest update, the Chicago Cubs continued to lead the way with five players on pace to start for the National League, while the Boston Red Sox paced the American League with four projected starters.

Most of the races appear to be wrapped up at this point. But there are still a few spots up for grabs, most notably NL catcher, where the St. Louis Cardinals’ Yadier Molina holds a slim 5,130-vote lead over the San Francisco Giants’ Buster Posey.

Now that MLB has released the final update, here’s a look at our full predictions for who will win each starting nod for July 12’s exhibition at San Diego’s Petco Park, as well as a projected lineup for each team.

Also included is a look at each predicted starter’s stats this season and where he ranks among the other players at his position in his respective league.

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MLB All-Star Voting 2016: Predictions for AL and NL Starting Rosters

Democracy has fared well enough in the MLB All-Star Game balloting, where fans are set to send deserving starters to this year’s Midsummer Classic.

As much as Kansas City Royals fans have tried to ruin the voting process, the American League starting squad is in great shape. While the National League leaderboard isn’t perfect, one of the two major mistakes could correct itself before the polls close Thursday at 11:59 p.m. ET.

MLB Communications reported no changes in Monday’s final update before the official reveal. It would take considerable late surges to alter much, but one race remains open in each league.

Let’s take a look at those tight bouts while predicting the final starting squads:

 

All-Star Predictions

American League: Mookie Betts Maintains Narrow Lead

Four outfielders have realistic chances of walking away with the American League’s final outfielder spot, which Mookie Betts currently occupies.

Last week, the Boston Red Sox star eclipsed Mark Trumbo, Lorenzo Cain and Jose Bautista on the ballot. In the recent update, his edge jumped from 27,023 to 93,891 votes, with Cain leapfrogging Trumbo to fourth place.

Of these candidates, Betts is the right choice:

The 23-year-old has ascended to stardom with a massive power uptick. After going deep 16 times—12 since the end of April—he’s two home runs away from matching last year’s tally.

A complete package, he has also succeeded on 12 of 13 stolen-base attempts while playing solid defense in right field alongside center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., who will almost certainly represent the Red Sox in San Diego.

While Cain continues to flash world-class defense in center field, his bat has regressed to league-average levels with a .755 OPS and 101 weighted runs created plus. Trumbo has pelted an MLB-high 22 home runs, but he has struggled in the outfield.

Bautista, who is having a subpar year for his standards, is on the disabled list with a hyperextended big toe.

Ian Desmond has a legitimate claim over them all, but he’s roughly 800,000 votes shy of Betts. The converted shortstop has accrued a 3.8 WAR in left field for the Texas Rangers, which puts him second among AL outfielders behind Mike Trout.

He’ll have to settle for a reserve role, as Betts should extend his small lead over the final days. He’s a young star in a big market who boasts eye-popping numbers. Along with scoring an MLB-best 66 runs and hitting for average, he’s one of 10 players to amass double-digit home runs and steals.

 

National League: Buster Posey Overthrows Yadier Molina

Anyone cynical about his or her votes not mattering should turn to the neck-and-neck battle unfolding between catchers Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran leads by 5,100 votes, down from his 75,413 advantage last week.

Fans are flocking to the San Francisco Giants’ former MVP, who is batting .282/.344/.452 this season with hits in 12 of his last 14 contests. Molina, meanwhile, has cratered after a fast start. Since finishing April with a .341 batting average, he has hit .224.

The 33-year-old is highly regarded for his work behind the plate, but he’s not hitting like an All-Star. Having gone deep only once this year, he holds a microscopic .345 slugging percentage. Wilson Ramos, a distant third on the catcher leaderboard, has a .341 batting average.

Yet voters tend to take a shine to the two established catchers, as MLB.com’s Joe Trezza noted:

A Molina victory would create trouble for the National League players and managers. Posey, Ramos and Jonathan Lucroy would then have to fight for space on the bench, and there wouldn’t be enough room for all three deserving candidates.

It makes little sense to award Molina for his defense when Posey is also a superior fielder. According to StatCorner, he has earned San Francisco’s pitchers more called strikes with his framing than any other backstop in baseball. His five defensive runs saved rank third behind Derek Norris and AL vote leader Salvador Perez, who are tied with nine.

Even if the typical voter doesn’t know this, he or she knows the .308/.372/.481 career hitter on and off the field. The 29-year-old recently became the head of Under Armour’s baseball campaign, per the Baltimore Sun‘s Lorraine Mirabella.

“Buster is everything a team could ask for in a model baseball player,” Ryan KuehlUnder Armour’s vice president of global category sports marketing, said. “His accomplishments speak for themselves, and Buster’s humility, hunger and never-ending focus on being a better athlete and teammate every day are the values Under Armour was built on.”

Molina has led for most of the way, but Posey has narrowed the gap enough to steal the starting spot at the last moment.

 

All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB All-Star Voting 2016: Predicting Biggest Snubs for Summer Showcase

Yadier Molina has established a stellar reputation throughout his 13 years with the St. Louis Cardinals as one of the best defensive catchers in the game’s history.

When it comes to his prowess behind the plate at blocking potential wild pitches, framing pitches over the outside or the inside corner and throwing out potential base stealers, Molina belongs in the same class as Johnny Bench and Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez.

He has also turned himself into a serviceable hitter. Molina exceeded the .300 mark in batting average for three straight years beginning in 2011, and he is a tough two-strike hitter who is not afraid of the big moment.

With his track record, it’s not a surprise Molina is the leading vote-getter among National League catchers for the Senior Circuit’s All-Star team. He leads Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants by slightly more than 75,000 votes as of MLB Communications‘ last report.

The All-Star Game is at San Diego’s Petco Park on July 12.

However, neither Molina nor Posey should be leading at the position. That honor should be going to Wilson Ramos of the Washington Nationals, who is having a stellar year with the bat and is in third place.

Ramos is hitting a robust .342 with 12 home runs and 41 RBI, while Molina is hitting .261 with a paltry one home run and 25 RBI. Posey is having a fine year with a .285 average along with eight homers and 36 RBI, but he has not been as productive as Ramos.

It looks like Ramos could be one of the biggest snubs in this year’s vote for major league All-Stars.

On the American League side, Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson may have a reason to throw up his hands at the end of voting and ask what’s going on.

Donaldson, the AL Most Valuable Player last year, has belted 17 home runs and knocked in 47 runs to go with his .288 average. Despite those figures, he is more than 500,000 votes behind Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles at third base.

Now, Machado is having an excellent year, as he is batting .325 with 18 home runs and 44 RBI. But here’s the problem: The slick-fielding Machado is playing shortstop for the Orioles, yet he is still receiving votes as a third baseman.

That’s like winning the election for mayor of Cleveland when the candidate hangs his hat in Chicago. It’s just not right.

Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies also has room to complain with the All-Star Game slightly more than two weeks away. The right fielder is hitting .317 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI to this point in the season, but he is just seventh in NL voting.

He trails Dexter Fowler (.290, seven homers, 28 RBI) of the Chicago Cubs, Bryce Harper (.249, 15 HR, 43 RBI) of the Washington Nationals and Yoenis Cespedes (.287, 18 HR, 45 RBI) of the New York Mets. Gonzalez is clearly having a more productive season than Fowler or Harper, although Cespedes is deserving of his position.

Nolan Arenado of the Rockies may have a slight complaint over his second-place status to Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs at third base, but it would have to be tempered. Arenado has the lead in home runs (21 to 18) and RBI (63 to 51), but the Cubs’ sensational season helps Bryant make his case.

Still, Arenado is one of the best fielding third basemen in the game, and he is obviously a terrific baseball player.

The baseball voting public is getting it right for the most part. But if Ramos, Gonzalez and Donaldson aren’t in the starting lineups, something is not right.

While it’s almost impossible not to see them named to the All-Star team when MLB announces the final rosters, they deserve to start.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com as of June 27.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Cubs Starters on Pace for Lowest Combined ERA Since 1919

The Chicago Cubs starting rotation enters Tuesday’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals with a cumulative 2.34 ERA, which would be the lowest combined mark by any team’s starters since 1919, per MLB Stat of the Day.

No starting rotation has finished a season with an ERA below 2.50 since 1981, when the Houston Astros rotation posted a 2.43 mark during a strike-shortened season, per Christopher Kamka of CSN Chicago. 

Good health has been a large part of the equation, with Chicago using just five starters all season, as Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel have each started either 13 or 14 games.

Arrieta leads the way in terms of record (11-1), ERA (1.74), WHIP (0.95) and strikeouts (101), with Lackey holding the lead for innings pitched (94.0), just a smidge ahead of Arrieta‘s 93.0 and Lester’s 91.2.

Each of the five starters own a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.10 WHIP, and they’ve combined for 49 quality starts in 68 tries, helping the team to a 47-21 record.

The starting rotation has a cumulative 39-15 record, with the also-sturdy bullpen chipping in an 8-6 mark.

If not for the presence of Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw—who is enjoying one of the finest seasons by a starter in MLB historyArrieta and Lester would both look like strong candidates for the National League Cy Young Award.

As is, Arrieta still has time to make a run at a repeat, but it does appear an injury is the only thing that could truly stand in Kershaw‘s way.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Jansen Set to Pass Eric Gagne as Dodgers’ All-Time Saves Leader

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Kenley Jansen enters the week needing just one more save to pass Eric Gagne for sole possession of first place on the franchise’s all-time saves list, per MLB Stat of the Day.

Though only 28 years old and now in his seventh MLB season, Jansen is already set to hold a key record for one of MLB’s most storied franchises.

He had just four saves as a rookie in 2010 and only five more in 2011 before registering 25 in 2012 and 28 in 2013 despite working as a setup man for parts of both seasons.

Jansen has been the full-time closer the past three years, piling up 44 saves in 2014, 36 in 2015 and now 19 through the first two-and-a-half months of 2016.

His career total of 161 puts him even on the franchise leaderboard with Gagne, who collected 161 of his 187 career saves in a Dodgers uniform.

Gagne memorably won the National League Cy Young Award in 2003, remarkably converting each of his 55 save opportunities while posting a 1.20 ERA and 0.69 WHIP with 137 strikeouts and 20 walks in 82.1 innings (77 appearances).

Jansen has never approached that level of dominance, but he may end up having a superior career on the whole.

After oddly tossing exactly 82.1 innings in three straight seasons from 2002 to 2004, Gagne was never again the same pitcher, struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness while bouncing around from team to team.

Jansen did toss 76.2 innings back in 2013, but he’s otherwise fallen shy of 70 in every season, and he’s on pace for 64.1 innings (and 43 saves) this year.

Enjoying arguably his best season to date, the right-hander has converted 19 of his 22 save opportunities while posting a 1.59 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with 33 strikeouts and just four walks in 28.1 innings (30 appearances).

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Betting Preview: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Odds, Analysis

Few pitchers in baseball have been better than Michael Fulmer (7-1, 2.52 ERA) of the Detroit Tigers (34-32) lately, as the rookie has been nearly unhittable over his past four starts en route to a personal five-game winning streak.

Fulmer will try to make it six in a row when he and the Tigers visit the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals (35-31) in the second game of a four-game series Friday as -115 road betting favorites (bet $115 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

Fulmer has pitched 28.1 consecutive scoreless innings—allowing just nine hits over his previous four starts combined—with his ERA dropping four full runs over his last five outings.

Detroit has won in each of his previous seven trips to the mound, as he walked away with a no-decision only once during that stretch. The team’s top pitching prospect has yet to face Kansas City, but he is 5-1 in seven road outings with a 3.10 ERA.

Opposing Fulmer for the Royals will be mercurial righty Yordano Ventura (5-4, 4.93 ERA), who ended a two-game losing streak by earning a victory against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday.

After getting ejected for throwing at Manny Machado in a 9-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, Ventura bounced back nicely with one of his better starts. He allowed one run and five hits with one walk and a season-high 10 strikeouts in seven innings versus the White Sox.

The lone run he gave up came on a solo home run by Jose Abreu in the sixth inning with his team leading 2-0 on its way to a 3-1 win.

Ventura has not lost at home this year, going 3-0 with a 4.55 ERA in five outings. He is also 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA against the Tigers in 2016, allowing two runs and six hits with three walks and five strikeouts in five innings of an 8-6 home victory April 19.

Kansas City had won two of three meetings with Detroit before blowing a 4-3 lead in a 10-4 loss on Thursday. The Tigers scored seven times in the last three innings, as the over improved to 9-2 in 11 meetings, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database.

The Royals enter the weekend back in the pack at +1800 on the World Series odds at the sportsbooks in their quest to repeat as champions.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Hot MLB Prospects on the Cusp of MLB Breakthroughs

MLB teams can’t count on prospects flying in from the minor leagues to save the day. 

Last year’s influx of talent spoiled baseball fans. Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Noah Syndergaard wasted no time assimilating to the big leagues, instead offering All-Star production from Day 1. Welcoming such an exceptional crop of future stars isn’t the norm.

Few rookies have successfully jumped from the minors to majors this season. Nomar Mazara and Michael Fulmer haven’t shined enough to offset the struggles from marquee prospects Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios and Julio Urias.

None of the following pitchers will dominate like Thor, and the position players won’t vault into MVP candidates next season. Yet as long as franchises and fans keep expectations in line, these prospects will mix solid immediate gains with the promise of long-term stardom.

All beckoning for a promotion—and a couple recently receiving one—with tremendous minor-league results, these players should get an MLB audition this season.

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Establishing Each MLB Team’s Top 2016 Trade Market Priorities

Seven weeks. That’s how much time each of baseball’s 30 franchises have to figure out whether they’re contenders or pretenders, buyers or sellers, before baseball’s Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline arrives.

Normally, we’d still be trying to figure out which team belongs in which category as well. But aside from one club—the Miami Marlins—we’ve got a pretty good idea as to who should be buying and who should be selling.

That’s an immense help when it comes to establishing priorities for each team as the deadline approaches. What follows is just that—a to-do list for each team in the weeks ahead.

Some teams have specific goals listed, such as “add a starting pitcher” or “trade Player X.” Others have more vague priorities, including “explore the market for outfielders” or “keep their options open.” Some have multiple things to check off those lists, while others have only one thing to think about.

What should your favorite team be focused on as one of the season’s most exciting moments—trade deadline time—draws near? Let’s take a look.

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Bleacher Report’s 2016 MLB All-Star Game Roster Predictions, 1 Month Out

Between the fans, the players and the managers, quite a few minds will go into selecting the rosters for this year’s MLB All-Star Game.

Let’s guess their intentions, shall we?

The 2016 Midsummer Classic—to be hosted by San Diego’s Petco Park—is still about a month away. But we now have a picture of which players are having good seasons. And thanks to weekly updates on the American League and National League voting, we also have a good idea who the fans want to see in the starting lineups July 12.

Predicting the final 34-man rosters for the AL and NL teams, however, doesn’t just mean anticipating which players will be voted in by the fans. It also requires anticipating who the players and the AL and NL managers (Ned Yost and Terry Collins, respectively) favor for the rosters. There’s the final vote to take into account as well.

It’s a lot to consider—read on when you’re ready.

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Odds of Each Notable 2016 MLB Draft ‘Legacy’ Prospect Reaching the Majors

At some point in nearly everyone’s childhood, they decide they want to follow in a family member’s footsteps. For some, it’s their mother or father. For others, it’s a brother or sister. And while many ultimately choose another path, some stick with it and follow through on that initial decision.

That includes the relatives of professional athletes, who do so knowing they won’t be viewed the same way their peers are; they’re entering a playing field tilted in everyone else’s favor.

“People have certain expectations just because of your last name,” Notre Dame outfielder Torii Hunter Jr., son of the recently retired five-time All-Star of the same name, told Bleacher Report’s Seth Gruen. “You just learn to shake those expectations and play the game you know how to play and just not let it affect you.”

While Hunter Jr. and his fellow legacy picks in this year’s MLB draft do their best to blaze their own paths, the name on the back of their uniform most certainly had an effect on the teams that selected them.

In some situations, it’s the deciding factor. When the scouting reports are close and the front office is torn about who to select, taking a chance on the son of a Hall of Fame player, like Craig Biggio’s son, Notre Dame second baseman Cavan, is more appealing than picking someone without big league bloodlines.

“The name can only take you so far,” Cavan told Gruen. “It’s going to catch people’s eye. But at the end of the day, if you can play, you can play.”

Name recognition likely played a part in a number of selections, including Brandon Bonilla, Quinn Hoffman and Bo Weiss, while it wasn’t enough for the likes of Brandon Grudzielanek, Jake Matheny and Darien McLemore to hear their names called.

Rather than list the odds for every legacy pick, we’ll focus instead on the most notable, using the following criteria to define a legacy pick as “notable”:

  • What level of success did the former player have during their playing career? Do we remember them, or are they among the hundreds of players we’ve forgotten about, only to be reminded of when looking through dusty boxes of baseball cards in our parents’ attic?
  • Was there any buzz surrounding the prospect heading into the draft? Those who cracked Baseball America‘s top 500 draft prospects list got stronger consideration for inclusion than those who didn’t.

Is it a perfect system? Of course not. But for this exercise, it’s good enough. Can we say the same about the odds of the most notable legacy prospects one day showcasing their skills in the majors? Let’s take a look.

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