Tag: Preview/Prediction

2017 MLB Mock Draft: Early Predictions for Top 1st-Round Baseball Prospects

The process of stocking and building in Major League Baseball is a never-ending process. As the 2016 MLB Draft comes to a conclusion Saturday, the 2017 Draft is already in the works and scouts already have a solid handle on the star players who will make headlines next June.

Scouts have a much greater handle on the college players who should go near the top of the 2017 draft, as it’s far more difficult to understand where prep players will rank in another year. However, there are a number of high-schoolers who have a chance to be taken near the top of the first round.

Many of the top players in the 2017 draft have turned down previous opportunities to play professionally because they wanted to go to college. As their games have matured and developed, their positions as draft headliners have solidified.

 

1. Pitcher J.B. Bukauskas, North Carolina 

Bukauskas was an elite high school prospect, but he decided to go the college route and he has a chance to be the top player in the MLB Draft in 2017. While the 5’11”, 190-pound  Bukauskas is not a physically imposing pitcher, he has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and one of the best curveballs that scouts have seen. Mentally, Bukauskas has the kind of traits that scouts, general managers and coaches want to see from starting pitchers.

He believes that his approach on the mound has grown significantly since coming to North Carolina. 

“I’ve definitely learned that you can’t just throw the ball anywhere in the zone,” Bukauskas told Ben Trittipoe of Inside NoVA. “College hitters are way better than high school hitters, especially in the ACC. I’ve learned that you definitely have to be able to locate all of your pitches, especially your fastball.”

2. Catcher J.J. Schwarz, Florida

Schwarz has developed significantly during his career with the Gators. He has a .292 average with six home runs and 54 RBI along with a .451 slugging percentage this season. Schwarz had improved quite a bit as a hitter in his first two college seasons, and he has the tools to remain behind the plate at the next level, although he will still need some improvement in this area. 

3. Catcher K.J. Harrison, Oregon State

Harrison has shown the kind of power development in his game over the past two years to make him a legitimate top prospect in the 2017 MLB Draft. He has pounded 10 home runs for the Beavers this year, and he has driven in 47 runs with a .525 slugging percentage. Scouts would like to see more in the batting average department since he is hitting .265, but he is improving quite a bit as a receiver.

4. Shortstop Mark Vientos, Flanagan High School, Miami, FL; committed to Miami (FLA)

Vientos has a chance to be the top high school player in next year’s draft, and he has the size at 6’3″ and 170 pounds as well as the range at the position that scouts tend to get excited about. In a report by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, Vientos was compared to Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles. 

Vientos is concentrating on improving and figuring out new ways to develop his skills. 

“I need to work on my patience,” Vientos told Shawn Krest of USA Today. “I also want to work on hitting off-speed pitching, because that’s all I’m seeing right now.”

5. Pitcher Hunter Greene, Notre Dame High School, Sherman Oaks, CA; committed to UCLA

Greene may turn out to be the top prep pitching prospect in the 2017 draft. He had an impressive run at the 18U Team USA trials and he has the kind of fastball that has gotten the scouts on his side. Greene is a solid all-around athlete who plays shortstop when he is not on the mound. He has been able to develop his change-up (h/t Eric Sondheimer of the Los Angeles Times) this season to go along with his impressive fastball.


 

Fangraphs provided much of the scouting information for this article.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Draft 2016: Selection Order and Predictions for 1st-Round Baseball Prospects

The 2016 MLB draft has been without a consensus top prospect throughout the evaluation process, but with the hours dwindling down until things get underway Thursday in Secaucus, New Jersey, the guessing games will soon be over.   

The Philadelphia Phillies control things at the top of the order with their first No. 1 overall pick since 1998, while the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves round out the top three. 

 

A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida

The Phillies have plenty of young pitching talent in the form of Aaron Nola, Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel and Jake Thompson, but that shouldn’t stop them from stacking their rotation and selecting A.J. Puk with the top pick in this year’s draft. 

Although he went just 2-3 over the course of 15 starts, per D1Baseball.com, Puk posted a 3.21 ERA, 95 strikeouts and 31 walks during the Florida Gators’ 2016 campaign thanks to a power-packed arsenal of pitches. 

According to MLB.com’s official scouting report, “Puk arguably has the best raw stuff of any arm in the class, with the chance to have three plus pitches. He’s capable of touching 96-97 mph with his fastball regularly.”

If the Phillies do make the 6’7”, 230-pound Puk their man at No. 1 overall, he’ll become the eighth pitcher since 2000 to be selected with the draft’s top pick. That would also give Philadelphia two of the draft’s top picks since 2013 after the team acquired Appel in a deal last winter that centered on closer Ken Giles. 

 

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer

The Braves need help across the board, and they’d be hard-pressed to find a better outfield option at No. 3 overall than Mercer University’s Kyle Lewis. 

The No. 3 prospect on MLB.com’s 2016 rankings, Lewis shredded opponents throughout 2016 by posting a .395 batting average, .535 on-base percentage and .731 slugging percentage while racking up 72 RBI and 20 home runs over the course of 61 games. 

The Braves could use a bat like that, since they have only three outfielders listed among their top 30 prospects entering the draft, according to MLB.com’s prospect rankings

“When you look at him, the bat speed is phenomenal,” Mercer head coach Craig Gibson said, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Matt Gelb. “You could put him in any organization, and that bat speed plays immediately. It’s just different.”

It will take Lewis some time to adjust to more aggressive pitching after he played his college ball in the Southern Conference, but he seems to have the skill set to become a lethal hitter.

 

Delvin Perez, SS, International Baseball Academy

Delvin Perez may only be 17 years old, but he’s already considered one of the game’s brightest young prospects at shortstop.

“His defense is obviously there,” a scout told MLB.com’s Alyson Footer. “It’ll take time to see how much he hits. It’s the hardest thing to project, because it’s the hardest thing to do. But he’s where he needs to be with his speed and defense.”

The Cleveland Indians have Francisco Lindor holding down the fort at short on a team-controlled deal through 2021, but they need to bolster the caliber of players at the position in their pipeline. The Puerto Rican wunderkind offers superstar-caliber upside that the likes of Erik Gonzalez and Yu-Cheng Chang don’t. 

However, Perez carries a red flag teams drafting in the first round will need to consider. According to Jon Heyman on Today’s Knuckleball, Perez failed a drug test during the predraft process, and his stock has started to slide ever since. 

Risk will accompany Perez’s selection wherever he winds up going in the draft, but there’s no denying he has the foundation necessary to one day evolve into a franchise centerpiece. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2016 MLB Mock Draft: Predictions for This Year’s Elite Prospects

In an era of instant gratification, the MLB amateur draft takes a hit.

Few, if any, top prospects selected Thursday night will ascend to the majors over the next year. The top high school standouts—some of whom will forgo signing for college—will take years of seasoning before realizing their big league aspirations.

As a result, the MLB draft doesn’t receive the frenzied following of the NFL and NBA drafts. With team needs mattering far less and signability issues swaying decisions, mock drafts rise in difficulty.

Making matters tougher, this year’s class contains no surefire top pick for the Philadelphia Phillies to snag. Let’s take a look at how the opening round will unfold before highlighting some of this year’s top prospects.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida

If the Phillies reach for the highest ceiling, they’ll take A.J. Puk to open the draft. Despite the left-handed pitcher’s inconsistencies with the Florida Gators, he has the makings of a potential ace.

The 6’7″, 230-pound junior has registered 95 strikeouts over 70 innings this season, limiting opponents to a .195 batting average. But he has struggled with his command, issuing 31 walks and hitting eight batters. In his latest NCAA tournament start, he relinquished five runs in 4.1 frames.

A towering lefty with a heater in the high 90s, he’s a scout’s dream on the mound. Of course, measurables and stuff don’t always equal production.

If he never matures into a dependable starter, he could transform into a lethal weapon out of the bullpen. That’s not, however, what the Phillies should expect out of their No. 1 selection.

Andrew Miller, another 6’7″ lefty and highly touted prospect, found a second life as a reliever. This happened for his third team six years after he was selected No. 7 by the Detroit Tigers and flipped to the Miami Marlins for Miguel Cabrera. 

Craig Kimbrel, who was always viewed as a reliever, went in the third round. Philadelphia should only take the plunge on Puk if it’s confident of his starting potential. In a draft without any mouth-watering future superstars, his upside as a perennial 200-strikeout workhorse upstages the control concerns.

 

Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee

Investing premium picks on polished position players has worked well in recent years. Both Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto were drafted early in 2014 as college juniors, and they made their mark the following season. Among last year’s headliners, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi have flashed star upside in the minors.

One of this year’s top college hitters, Nick Senzel could be the first 2016 draft pick to reach the big leagues. The third baseman has raked during his junior season in Tennessee, batting .352/.456/.595 with more doubles (25) than strikeouts (21).

One of the draft’s safest picks should secure a top-10 selection, but there’s little consensus on where he’ll fall. MLB.com’s Jim Callis has the Cincinnati Reds grabbing him with pick No. 2. Baseball America‘s John Manuel projects him falling to the Oakland Athletics four spots later.

Although the same was said of Swanson, last year’s No. 1 selection, Senzel lacks the lofty ceiling of such an early choice. He gradually displayed more power with the Volunteers, but he still finished with 13 homers over three years.

Per the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb, Tennessee head coach Dave Serrano believes his player has the tools to provide more than gap power.

“Nick, right now, is more concerned with being a good hitter,” Serrano said. “He drives the ball to right center well. He’s got power to all fields. The power is there.”

Puk fell to Cincinnati in Manuel’s mock, but this simulation has Philadelphia taking the southpaw first. That prompts the Reds to take Senzel, who is a sensible replacement for the recently traded Todd Frazier at the hot corner.

 

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer

Kyle Lewis murdered baseballs all year for Mercer, batting an incredible .395/.535/.731 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI in 61 games. Those video game numbers (assuming an expert is playing on rookie) earned him Baseball America’s 2016 College Player of the Year award.

The outfielder blended contact and power at elite levels while walking in 21.9 percent of his plate appearances. As he told Baseball America’s Jim Shonerd, he’s not operating like many burgeoning MLB stars: 

I’m not trying to go up there and just slug home runs and swing for the fences. I’m trying to put hard line drives in play consistently. I think that if you try to hit low line drives consistently that you’ll get the elevation and you’ll get some balls out of the park, and I’ve been able to do that. But I think that as an overall hitter, I try to just be a hitter for average.

If the Reds and Phillies pass, Lewis could become the latest Georgian native to stay home. According to FanRag Sports’ Tommy Stokke, the Atlanta Braves are in play to make a hometown selection once again:

The Braves haven’t picked a position player in the first round since 2010, so high school southpaw Jason Groome is also in play. Yet no organization is 100 percent attached to a particular approach, so look for Atlanta to expedite its rebuild by choosing Lewis.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2016 MLB Mock Draft: Bleacher Report’s Final Round 1 Picks

Mock drafts are tricky business regardless of the sport, but that’s especially true when it comes to the MLB draft.

A staggering 1,216 total players will be taken over the course of the three-day event that begins Thursday, June 9.

When you couple that vast pool of amateur talent with the fact that teams have bonus-pool restrictions to take into account, it’s fair to assume all 30 teams have varying strategies and draft boards.

With that warning of impending inaccuracy out of the way, what follows is our best attempt at mocking the first round of the 2016 MLB draft.

Florida left-hander A.J. Puk, Tennessee infielder Nick Senzel, Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis and Louisville outfielder Corey Ray headline this year’s college crop.

Meanwhile, New Jersey left-hander Jason Groome, Kansas right-hander Riley Pint and California outfielders Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford highlight the high school ranks.

There is no shortage of potential star-level talent behind those marquee guys, though, and every team will be hoping they hit on the next big thing.

Here’s a look at Bleacher Report’s final Round 1 MLB mock draft.

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2016 MLB Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions for Where Top Prospects Will Land

There is often a consensus No. 1 overall pick ahead of the MLB draft, but since that isn’t the case entering the 2016 edition, teams near the top of the first round will have difficult and potentially franchise-altering decisions to make.

The Philadelphia Phillies own the top selection and have their pick of the litter in a draft class that seemingly boasts solid depth rather than elite talent. Even so, they have a legitimate chance to nab a perennial All-Star if their scouts can do the tough job of differentiating top available prospects.

With the 2016 MLB draft approaching quickly, here is a full, first-round mock draft along with further analysis regarding some of the top players likely to come off the board early.

 

A.J. Puk

Teams are constantly searching for aces to top their starting rotations, and Florida Gators lefty A.J. Puk has the tools needed to be precisely that at the MLB level.

Standing nearly 6’7″ and weighing 230 pounds to go along with a fastball that approaches 100 mph, Puk is a potential stud provided he gets the right amount of seasoning in the minors.

His numbers don’t necessarily leap off the page, as he is just 2-3 with a 2.88 ERA this season for the Gators, but he has struck out 90 batters in 65.2 innings.

In addition to Puk‘s ceiling being high, ESPN’s Keith Law expressed his belief on the Baseball Tonight podcast (h/t Andy Hamilton of the Des Moines Register) that Puk‘s floor is fairly high as well:

You’re never going to get fired for taking the 6’6″ college lefty who throws 97. And, really, at worst, what have you got? You’ve probably a great bullpen arm if everybody absolutely goes wrong. As long as he’s healthy, he’s going to pitch in the big leagues and probably be OK. That’s the consensus right now on who the Phillies would take there.

Along with the low-risk nature selecting Puk, ESPN’s Jayson Stark believes he is a safe bet to sign for a reasonable price, per 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia:

It can be argued that there are high school players with more pure talent than Puk, but they tend to be a crapshoot due to the difficulty of projecting how they’ll translate to the next level.

Puk is far from Major League-ready, but he already has big league-caliber stuff, and that should make the bridge to the majors a much shorter one than most of the other prospects in the draft.

 

Jason Groome

Like Puk, Jason Groome is a big lefty with dynamic stuff, but his status as a high school pitcher creates plenty of uncertainty with regard to how he stacks up to his counterparts.

He blew away the competition at times during his senior season and rang up strikeouts at will, but he wasn’t quite as dominant as one might expect a potential No. 1 overall pick to be, as evidenced by these stats courtesy of Shore Sports Network’s Matt Manley:

Groome could opt to play at Vanderbilt after committing there rather than signing a contract with an MLB team, but since he figures to be a top-10 pick at worst, it is difficult to envision that scenario playing out.

According to Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the New Jersey native is already talking about moving past the collegiate ranks: “I just want to play professional baseball. If I don’t go No. 1 or don’t go No. 5 or go nine or 10, it really doesn’t matter to me. I just want to go somewhere I’m going to feel comfortable and be protected.”

Provided Puk is selected first by the Phillies, the Cincinnati Reds figure to take a long look at Groome with the No. 2 overall pick.

Having lost Johnny Cueto in July 2015 and arguably playing with the worst starting rotation in Major League Baseball, the Reds undoubtedly need to add top pitching talent to the organization.

Groome is several years away from making it through the minors, but if his development reaches his talent level, then he could eventually become the No. 1 starter Cincinnati so desperately needs.

 

Kyle Lewis

While there is a great deal of interest in pitchers in the 2016 draft class, Mercer Bears outfielder Kyle Lewis may very well be the best hitter available.

There is some skepticism regarding the Georgia native due to the fact that he has played at a small school, but his production has been impressive.

Lewis hit .395 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI in 61 games, and he won Southern Conference Player of the Year for the second consecutive season.

The junior has good size at 6’4″ and 210 pounds, and although he is a five-tool performer, his power is what truly stands out, according to David Lee of the Augusta Chronicle:

Lewis can seemingly do it all on the baseball field, and Mercer head coach Craig Gibson believes he was born to play the game, per Matt Gelb of Philly.com: “If God was going to make a baseball player, this is the body and the athleticism.”

The Atlanta Braves hold the No. 3 overall selection, and they would benefit greatly from adding high-level hitters to their prospect pool.

Atlanta has picked up a lot of promising pitchers during its rebuilding process, but there is still plenty of work to be done on the front of acquiring position players.

Lewis is somewhat reminiscent of former Braves outfielder Jason Heyward, due to his ability to excel in all areas, and the Braves figure to jump at the chance to take him if he’s there.

 

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Betting Preview: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Odds, Analysis

The Chicago White Sox (29-25) are fighting to get back to the top of the division, winning two in a row heading into Friday’s road matchup with the Detroit Tigers (25-28) following a season-high seven-game losing streak.

Meanwhile, the Tigers will try to move one step closer to the .500 mark when they send Jordan Zimmermann to the hill as minus-140 home betting favorites (bet $140 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

Zimmermann (7-2, 2.52 ERA) got off to a great start for Detroit, winning his first five starts by posting a stellar 0.55 ERA after inking a five-year, $110 free-agent deal in the offseason. However, he has struggled lately, going 2-2 with a 4.88 ERA in his past four outings and dealing with a groin injury that forced him to miss his last start.

The Tigers have dropped five of six overall following a 5-4 loss to the New York Yankees on Thursday in a makeup game. They will face Chicago for the first time this year after going 10-9 in the 2015 season series, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database, including 6-4 at home.

The over has gone 6-4 in the past 10 meetings at Comerica Park, but the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven between the teams overall.

The way the White Sox have been scoring lately, the total could be headed under here as well. They have averaged 3.3 runs in their last nine games and totaled 17 less than Detroit has scored this year. However, Chicago’s Carlos Rodon (2-4, 4.24) has seen his team average 6.5 runs in the previous four he has started, despite losing three of them.

Still, Rodon walked away with three no-decisions during that stretch and has managed to go 1-2 in his past six outings, even though the Sox have lost five of them.

The 23-year-old southpaw has split his last two starts, both coming against the Kansas City Royals, giving up three runs and 14 hits in 11.2 innings with four walks and seven strikeouts. The over is 3-1 in his last four starts, after the under went 5-0-1 in his first six.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Betting Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers Odds, Analysis

Following a high-scoring four-game home-and-home series against the San Diego Padres, the Seattle Mariners (31-22) will travel to Arlington for the first of three games against the Texas Rangers (31-22) on Friday.

While the Mariners were busy rallying back to knock off the Padres 16-13 to win that interleague series Thursday, the Rangers enjoyed a day off and head into this American League West matchup as -140 home betting favorites (bet $140 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

Texas and Seattle are tied atop the division and will play each other six times in the next 10 games after splitting the first six meetings in early April. The Rangers are 9-3 in their last 12 since getting swept in a three-game road set versus the Oakland Athletics, while the Mariners lost three in a row to the Minnesota Twins before playing San Diego.

Despite outscoring the Padres 47-34 in that series, Seattle’s starting pitching is a big concern, especially after surrendering 27 of those runs in the last two games.

Taijuan Walker (2-5, 3.31 ERA) has seen the Mariners lose five of his last six starts, with his ERA gradually rising from a season-low of 1.44 heading into May. He suffered a neck injury against the Houston Astros on May 6 and has not been the same since.

Walker has surrendered nine home runs in his past five outings and gave up only one in his first five combined, which includes a 4-2 home victory against Texas back on April 13. The under cashed in that game and is 7-2-1 in his 10 starts this year. However, the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database.

The Rangers hope ace Yu Darvish (1-0, 1.80 ERA) will continue to be as sharp in his second start as he was in his first when he allowed one run and three hits in five innings of a 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates last Saturday. He missed last season following Tommy John surgery and will continue to be on a pitch count after throwing 81 against the Pirates, with Texas expected to keep him under 100 in this outing.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Draft Big Board 2016: Bleacher Report’s Complete Predraft Rankings

The 2016 MLB draft is now just one week away, with the first round set to begin on June 9.

The Philadelphia Phillies will be picking No. 1 overall, just the second time in franchise history they’ve held the top selection. It turned out pretty well last time, in 1998, when they grabbed University of Miami outfielder Pat Burrell.

This time around, there’s no clear-cut player atop draft boards. Instead, there’s a handful of guys who are all in the mix to go 1-1.

Florida left-hander A.J. Puk, Tennessee infielder Nick Senzel, Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis and Louisville outfielder Corey Ray headline this year’s college crop.

Meanwhile, the high school ranks are highlighted by New Jersey left-hander Jason Groome, Kansas right-hander Riley Pint and California outfielders Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford.

There’s plenty of intriguing talent beyond just that top tier of prospects, though, and what follows is our complete 2016 MLB draft big board.

It includes a look at the top 100 overall prospects as well as positional breakdowns of the top 15 catchers, top 20 corner infielders, top 20 middle infielders, top 30 outfielders, top 30 right-handed pitchers and top 20 left-handed pitchers.

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MLB Betting Preview: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays (28-26) can even their home record and complete a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees (24-27) with a victory in the series finale Wednesday at the Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays have won the past four meetings with the Yankees and taken six of seven overall, and they are listed as -115 betting favorites (bet $115 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark with Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.29 ERA) on the hill for his 11th start of the season.

Toronto has won five of the last six games Sanchez has started, and he’s gone 3-0 with three no-decisions. He has allowed three runs or fewer five times during that stretch and has gone a full seven innings four times.

The Blue Jays have scored 22 runs in his previous three games, with the over cashing each time after a run of six unders in his first seven, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database.

Meanwhile, New York will send ace Masahiro Tanaka (3-0, 2.89) to the mound looking to win for the fifth time in as many starts. He has earned two of his wins in his past two outings, giving up one run and seven hits combined over 14 innings with two walks and eight strikeouts.

The Yankees are 7-2 in his last nine starts, with the under going 7-2.

This is a rematch of a meeting between the two starting pitchers from April 12, when New York edged Toronto 3-2 on a run-scoring single by outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in the seventh inning.

Sanchez pitched well but surrendered the game-tying homer to catcher Brian McCann in the sixth, leaving after allowing three hits and one earned run with three walks and six strikeouts. Tanaka lasted five innings, giving up three hits and two runs with four walks and six strikeouts. Neither starter walked away with a decision.

The under cashed in that game and has gone 9-3 in the past 12 meetings. Only one of the last six games between the teams has seen more than six runs scored. The under is also 7-3 in the previous 10 for the Blue Jays overall and 5-1 in the last six for the Yanks.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Trade Ideas Based on Week 8 News, Rumors and Speculation

It’s official: Baseball’s rumor mill is back in business.

We’ve seen a slew of rumors and speculation make the rounds over the past week, some of it driven by untimely injuries and some by a lack of production. Regardless of the reason, teams are realizing that they may not have the answers in-house and have begun scouring the market for reinforcements.

The players involved in this week’s chatter run the gamut from those still in their prime to top prospects and veterans some of us may have forgotten were still playing. 

Keep in mind that these proposed deals are only ideas and pure speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have actually been discussed.

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