Tag: Preview/Prediction

MLB Betting Preview: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Odds, Analysis

No team is playing better baseball right now than the San Francisco Giants (25-18), who have won eight games in a row, allowing three runs or fewer in their last seven and only one run in four straight.

Regardless, the visiting Chicago Cubs (28-11) are listed as -200 betting favorites (wager $200 to win $100) for Friday’s series opener at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark behind unbeaten ace Jake Arrieta (7-0, 1.29 ERA).

The Giants and Cubs were the two preseason favorites to win the National League pennant. After a slow start, San Francisco is finally living up to those high expectations, while Chicago has dropped three of four and five of eight, including the team’s only pair of consecutive losses this year.

The Giants have won the last two meetings following a five-game losing streak in the series, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database.

Arrieta has been masterful again after winning the NL Cy Young Award in 2015. He has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts this season, with the Cubs winning by four runs or more in seven of them as well.

Arrieta’s last regular-season loss took place on July 25, 2015, opposite Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies, who threw a no-hitter. That was the second time in the regular season he gave up as many as three earned runs since last June 16, although he surrendered four twice last postseason.

San Francisco will also be giving the ball to a Jake hereone who is barely holding on to a spot in the starting rotation. Jake Peavy (1-4, 7.43) has been brutal for the most part this year, but he is coming off his best outing on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks last Saturday. Peavy allowed a season-low one run and three hits in six innings with two walks and five strikeouts.

The Giants had lost five of his previous six starts, with him giving up four runs or more four times during that stretch.

With Arrieta and Peavy on the mound, there is a good chance there will be a lot of runs scored and the total will go over. In Arrieta’s eight starts, the over is 7-1, compared to 6-2 for Peavy. The over is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings between the teams overall.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Upcoming MLB Free Agents Poised to Earn Big Bucks After 2016

Had Stephen Strasburg waited another day, he would have topped the list of MLB‘s best players entering free agency this offseason.

The Washington Nationals ace had all the ingredients necessary to secure a massive payday. Since last year’s All-Star break, the former No. 1 overall pick boasts a 2.26 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 115.1 innings. This is the guy whose MLB arrival was more hyped than any baseball player in recent memory until Bryce Harper joined him in D.C.

Sweetening the pot, a bidding war would have spawned over the 27-year-old’s peak years in a free-agent class without any solid alternatives. Knowing agent Scott Boras’ ruthless reputation, he would have scratched and clawed for every dollar.

All these factors considered, it came as a surprise when CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman broke the news on Monday night: Strasburg and the Nationals agreed to a seven-year, $175 million extension. The premature signing made more sense when Heyman disclosed an opt-out clause after the third and fourth years, giving the righty long-term stability and the opportunity to earn another monster deal.

If that seems like a lot for someone who once underwent Tommy John surgery, this article was set to project seven years for $225 million. Even that felt like selling his potential earnings short.

Any team needing a rotation boost must test the trading market or wait until 2017-18’s monster free-agent class. As for this winter, a shallow crop led by power sluggers and relief pitchers stand to benefit from the downgraded competition.

Here are the biggest remaining upcoming free agents in line for big paydays.

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Early Predictions for MLB’s Biggest Buyers and Sellers at the Trade Deadline

The MLB trade deadline is still three months away, but it’s never too early to start speculating about what might go down this summer.

There are already a handful of rebuilding teams that look like clear sellers, and contenders have started mentally dissecting those rosters as they assess their needs.

Inevitable injuries and the changing MLB landscape as a whole will no doubt shake things up between now and July, but let’s take an early crack at predicting who might be the top buyers and sellers at this year’s Aug. 1 deadline.

Sellers are ranked based on their available trade chips and the likelihood that they’ll aggressively sell, while buyers are ranked based on areas of need, likelihood that they’ll aggressively buy and the farm systems at their disposal.

Let’s kick things off with our No. 3 biggest seller.

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Impact MLB Trade Ideas That Could Actually Happen in 2016

One MLB midseason trade can make all the difference for a contender needing a push to the finish line. 

Just look at last year’s World Series representatives. The New York Mets fortified their lineup by acquiring Yoenis Cespedes, who has since hit 25 home runs in 78 regular-season games. While the Kansas City Royals weren’t as lucky to retain Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto, both rentals played instrumental roles in capturing the championship.

All three of those players entered free agency last offseason, a common trait for midseason trade candidates. When a team doesn’t see a realistic path to October, it moves players set to walk out the door in two months.

That’s not the case in all of the following scenarios. One popular option who has already built a second home on the rumor mill could finally get jettisoned with the added appeal of a 2017 club option.

Two more intriguing scenarios exist among former superstars enjoying rousing starts. These outfielders once battled in a contested MVP race, but their resurgences have gone for naught on otherwise deplete rosters. This could be the last chance either club has of moving its bloated contracts while netting a fair return.

Although the stove is on, the water hasn’t boiled yet. It’s too early to accurately identify every buyer and seller. Injuries, slumps and breakouts will also alter positional needs before July 31’s non-waiver trade deadline.

For now, it’s mostly all speculation on what could happen. But don’t worry, we’re not going to “Will the Tampa Bay Rays give up on Chris Archer?” or “What could the Los Angeles Angels get for Mike Trout?” levels of crazy. Staying in the realm of feasibility, let’s look at five possible moves that could rock the MLB landscape this summer.

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Assessing Legitimate MLB Contenders’ Postseason Chances Early in 2016

While the 2016 MLB regular season isn’t yet one month old, it’s never too early to jump to conclusions about the action we’ve seen unfold before us.

Some teams, such as the Colorado Rockies, have enjoyed a hot start and exceeded expectations, while others, such as the Houston Astros, have struggled.

Can the Rockies sustain their hot start? Are the Astros really a non-contender? These are the questions we’re here to answer.

After crunching the numbers, assessing rosters and the landscapes around each team, we have a pretty good idea which clubs have a chance of contending and which are merely pretending to be contenders.

We’ll assign each of our legitimate contenders a percentage chance of making the postseason based on all those factors, with no team receiving anything higher than 75 percent. Why? Because there’s simply too much baseball left to be played—and too much time for injuries to flip everything upside down.

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Jackie Robinson Day 2016: How Sports World Is Honoring MLB Icon

Major League Baseball has honored Jackie Robinson’s breaking of the color barrier every April 15 since 2004, and the tradition will continue Friday with a special celebration involving all 30 teams.

Robinson became the first African-American to play in MLB on April 15, 1947, making Friday’s event the 69th anniversary of that historic moment.

Ahead of the 13th annual Jackie Robinson Day, MLB Communications provided a look at the logo that will be featured at ballparks throughout the major leagues:

It was also announced on MLB.com that Robinson will be recognized in myriad ways throughout the day, including the use of his No. 42 jersey number.

While the No. 42 is retired across the league, an exception is made every Jackie Robinson Day, as all players don the number in a show of respect for one of the true trailblazers in baseball, sports and life in general.

The New York Yankees were among the teams to show off the special uniforms prior to Friday’s anticipated festivities:

Major League Baseball also committed to having even more involvement with the Jackie Robinson Foundation, as seen in this statement from MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred:

All MLB ballparks will feature commemorative bases and lineup cards, and at Dodger Stadium, Robinson’s wife Rachel and daughter Sharon will be featured in an on-field ceremony.

Friday marks Dave Roberts’ first Jackie Robinson Day as manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he fully intends to appreciate how special and important the event is, according to ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla.

“I think that I am a little bit, to a fault, not taking certain moments in, but I think I will make a conscious effort [Friday] to understand and take in the scope and the magnitude. It’s a big deal,” Roberts said. “Jackie has obviously impacted me and many others. I think that I’m going to take some extra time to reflect for sure.”

While the wearing of No. 42 is a fantastic tradition that pays proper homage to one of the all-time greats, it isn’t the only Robinson-related apparel that players will wear Friday.

As seen in this tweet courtesy of ESPN’s Darren Rovell, Adidas-sponsored athletes will wear special cleats featuring photos of Robinson, his iconic No. 42 and some of his most famous quotes:

Jackie Robinson Day isn’t limited solely to Major League Baseball, as the UCLA Bruins baseball team is taking part too.

Robinson starred in baseball, basketball, football and track at UCLA, and the Bruins are set to take the field against the Washington Huskies on Friday in old-school threads to remember one of the biggest legends in school history.

UCLA Baseball shared a photo of the Brooklyn Dodgers-inspired unis on Twitter:

Robinson changed the sport of baseball forever when he broke the color barrier, but he made an even bigger impact as one of the symbols of the civil rights movement.

Even aside from the transcendent meaning of his MLB debut, the Hall of Famer was a truly great player with a .311 career batting average and six All-Star appearances to his credit.

Robinson continues to inspire people of all races well beyond his untimely death in 1972, and Major League Baseball has done an admirable job of keeping his memory alive.

Jackie Robinson Day is the perfect way to do that, as it will remind many of Robinson’s greatness, while also introducing him to a whole new generation of fans.

 

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Playing Fact or Fiction with MLB’s Most Shocking 2016 Early-Season Records

Normally, we play “Fact or Fiction” with the latest rumblings and speculation floating around Major League Baseball. But with the rumor mill still emerging from a short (but well-deserved) post-spring training nap and teams still trying to figure out exactly who they are, that’s not an option this week.

Instead, we’ll take a closer look at some of the most shocking starts a handful of teams have gotten off to. While most clubs appear to be who we thought they were, a few have us scratching our heads. Are they truly as good—or as bad—as their early-season records indicate?

Let’s take a look.

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MLB Betting Preview: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds, Analysis

The New York Mets (2-4) will turn to Noah Syndergaard (1-0, 0.00 ERA) in an effort to get back on track Tuesday when they take on the Miami Marlins (2-3) in the second of a three-game series.

The Mets are consensus -135 home betting favorites (bet $135 to win $100) against the Marlins, who will counter with ace Jose Fernandez (0-1, 7.94 ERA) looking to rebound from a rough outing in his 2016 debut.

New York has lost three in a row following a 10-3 shellacking at the hands and bats of Miami on Monday, with pitcher Steven Matz surrendering seven runs and six hits in only 1.2 innings while walking two and striking out one.

The Mets called up Matz at the end of last season, and he helped the team in the playoffs but remains eligible for National League Rookie of the Year because he made just six regular-season starts. He looked like an inexperienced player versus the Marlins, who got a home run from Giancarlo Stanton among 15 hits overall.

Syndergaard hopes to end the slide for the Mets after they lost all three games to NL East opponents at home. He was outstanding in his first start on the road against the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals a week ago, allowing three hits in six scoreless innings of a 2-0 victory with one walk and nine strikeouts.

Syndergaard was even better at home last season, going 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA in 12 starts. Opposing batters hit .196 against him at Citi Field.

Meanwhile, Fernandez struck out 13 in his first start at home versus the Detroit Tigers last Wednesday but gave up five runs and five hits in 5.2 innings of a 7-3 loss for Miami. Former Marlin Jarrod Saltalamacchia did most of the damage with a home run and four RBI, and Victor Martinez added a two-run shot.

Fernandez suffered his first loss in 27 home starts, and he made just five road starts last season, going 1-1 with a 3.34 ERA.

Miami has won three straight meetings with New York—all as a road underdog—along with five of the last seven dating back to last year, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Projecting Dark-Horse MLB Cy Young Candidates for the 2016 Season

It’s easy to dismiss a dark-horse candidate as a serious contender for one of baseball’s individual awards until you realize that three of the past four Cy Young Award winners could reasonably fit under that umbrella.

Nobody saw the Cleveland Indians’ Corey Kluber coming when he won the American League Cy Young Award in 2014, and while both the Chicago Cubs’ Jake Arrieta and the Houston Astros’ Dallas Keuchel headed into 2015 with high expectations, few believed they’d be dominant enough to walk away with the award at year’s end.

Yet that’s exactly what they did.

So while the six pitchers who follow—three in each league—may be overshadowed, overlooked and without much of the fanfare that surrounds past winners and usual suspects (Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, David Price), we can’t write them off as contenders for the Cy Young Award.

If we’ve learned anything over the past few seasons, it’s that anything can—and usually does—happen.

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MLB Betting Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Odds, Analysis

The Los Angeles Dodgers started off the season a perfect 3-0 both straight up and on the run line, sweeping the San Diego Padres and winning each game by three runs or more. The Dodgers face a much tougher opponent in their weekend series against the San Francisco Giants.

Los Angeles is a plus-100 road betting underdog in Friday’s game against the Giants, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. San Francisco (-120) sends Matt Cain to the mound to face Dodgers rookie Ross Stripling.

The Dodgers couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season than their season-opening series against the Padres, as they shut out their lowly division rivals in three straight games.

Clayton Kershaw’s dominance was to be expected, but the fact that newcomers Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda pitched so well in their team debuts bodes well for a Dodgers team that lacked pitching depth last season and lost Zack Greinke this offseason.

Including Thursday’s loss in the opening game of this four-game series, the Dodgers are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games against the Giants, per the Odds Shark MLB Database.

After winning the first two games in their season-opening series on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Giants were unable to complete the sweep Wednesday, getting edged out in a 4-3 loss.

The offseason acquisitions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija give the Giants one of the deepest starting rotations in all of baseball, with veterans Jake Peavy and Cain now slotted in at the bottom of the rotation instead of the middle. San Francisco is 19-11 in its last 30 games at home.

Friday’s total is set at eight runs. The under is 5-2 in the last seven games between these two National League West rivals.

Since the start of spring training, the odds to win the NL West have been among the closest of any of the division races, as the Giants are just slight favorites over the Dodgers. This race could go all the way down to the wire, so even head-to-head games in early April are important.

Staff aces Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw are projected to meet Saturday, and Sunday’s game will feature Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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