Kuzul

There are countless reasons why some players take time to finally reach their potential—to deliver that career-changing breakout season—but when they do, it’s usually in a big way with big numbers and memorable moments.

Without fail, it happens each and every season.

We’ve looked at emerging stars and budding superstars in recent weeks, and you won’t find any of those players on the pages that follow. With all due respect to the likes of Mookie Betts, Miguel Sano, Kyle Schwarber, George Springer and Noah Syndergaard, their breakout potential has already been noted.

No, the time has come to shine the light on some different players, those who have had varying degrees of success in the big leagues but have yet to put together a full season that makes the baseball universe stand up and take notice.

That is, until now.

Begin Slideshow

The 2016 MLB season is finally in full swing, but it’s never too late to make some long-term predictions about how the season could shake out.

Things rarely play out as expected over 162 games, and that’s one of the things that makes baseball so great, but here in the early going, we can get a decent idea of what the postseason picture might look like come October.

So with that in mind, what follows is a look at each team’s odds of making the playoffs for the upcoming season.

The overall outlook of each team obviously trumps anything it may have accomplished during spring training or in the handful of regular-season games that have been played to this point, as we’re looking at the big picture.

Provided along with each team’s odds is a look at what that translates to in terms of a percent chance of reaching the postseason. Those percentages add up to approximately 500 percent for each league, as five playoff spots are up for grabs.

Begin Slideshow

The 2016 MLB season is finally in full swing, but it’s never too late to make some long-term predictions about how the season could shake out.

Things rarely play out as expected over 162 games with so many moving parts on an MLB roster and injuries impossible to predict.

However, even with that uncertainty, some teams obviously have a better chance of extending their seasons on into October than others.

With that in mind, what follows is a look at each team’s odds of making the playoffs in 2016.

To put this exercise into perspective, no team was given better than an 80 percent chance of reaching the playoffs here in early April, and a grand total of 10 teams were pegged with better than a 50 percent chance.

A team’s overall talent level and outlook obviously trumps anything it may have accomplished during spring training or in the handful of regular-season games that have been played to this point. Overall organizational depth to counter potential injuries and eventual prospect reinforcements also factored into a team’s chances.

Provided along with each team’s odds is a look at what that translates to in terms of a percent chance of reaching the postseason. Those percentages add up to approximately 500 percent for each league, as five playoff spots are up for grabs.

Begin Slideshow

Baseball is back, and if the first two days of the 2016 regular season are any indication, fans are in for one heck of a year. Late-inning rallies, superhuman defensive plays (we’re looking at you, Kevin Pillar) and no-doubt home runs littered the Opening Day landscape.

But Opening Day also leads to crazy overreactions, some positive, some negative. Small sample sizes be damned—one game is all some people need to conclude that a team expected to contend has no chance of doing so, or that a star player is over the hill and should be discarded by the postgame cleanup crews.

Has everyone focused on the wrong shortstop as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year? Is a typically reliable ace dealing with a serious injury? Does common sense exist among some of baseball’s decision-makers?

We’ll hit on all of that and more in this week’s edition of Fact or Fiction.

Begin Slideshow

In a unique twist, the 2016 MLB season will kick off Sunday with a tripleheader of games to be televised on the ESPN family of networks throughout the day.

It had become customary for a single Sunday night game to begin the festivities ahead of a full Monday slate, but Major League Baseball decided to take a different approach this time around. And it is undoubtedly a major upgrade for baseball fans who have been waiting all winter for the season’s first official pitch.

Here is a full listing of every Sunday and Monday Opening Day game along with when and where to watch them, as well as predictions for how each of the contests will play out.

Opening Day Schedule

Cardinals vs. Pirates

The MLB regular season will officially start with one of the league’s best rivalries, as the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals in Sunday’s early game.

Both teams reached the playoffs last season with the Cards winning the NL Central by virtue of an MLB-best 100 wins, while the Bucs were forced to settle for a wild card despite winning 98 games, which was good for second in the entire league.

The Pirates have recently developed into a perennial playoff team much like the Cardinals, and shortstop Jody Mercer believes Pittsburgh is here to stay in that regard, according to CBS Pittsburgh: “We feel like that we kind of changed the culture a little bit, and we want to keep it that way, and it’s not just a fluke deal of two or three years it’s an every year thing, and we’re going to be right in the mix of things.”

If the Pirates are going to get their 2016 campaign off to an ideal start, then they will need a strong outing from probable starter Francisco Liriano, who is going up against Adam Wainwright.

The conditions figure to favor both hurlers, as cold weather is expected for PNC Park Sunday, per Steve MacLaughlin of WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh:

Liriano was solid if unspectacular in four starts against the Cards last season, as he went 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA, while Wainwright made just one relief appearance against the Pirates in 2015 after missing most of the season due to injury.

Both teams have some major questions in their starting lineup after the heart of the order, which is why their first meeting of the season has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.

Beating the Cards on Opening Day would be a major statement victory for the Pirates in terms of announcing their intentions to take the NL Central in 2016, and they will put themselves on track to do so with a 3-2 win, featuring outfielder Andrew McCutchen starring at the plate.

Blue Jays vs. Rays

The American League slate will begin Sunday afternoon with an AL East clash pitting the Toronto Blue Jays against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Toronto is coming off a season that saw it win the AL East and reach the American League Championship Series, and a win over Tampa to start the 2016 campaign would set it on a similar track for the second year in a row.

While the Rays will be at a major disadvantage at the plate, they will certainly have a fighting chance with ace Chris Archer on the mound. The Jays will counter with Marcus Stroman, who is set to make some history, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark:

Perhaps the best lineup in baseball will back up Stroman, as Toronto features a heart of the order that includes reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki.

That lineup produced the most runs in the league last season with 891, which was 127 more than the second-place New York Yankees.

As good as Toronto is at the dish, it is highly underrated defensively as well, which catcher Russell Martin believes will play a significant role in 2016.

“Because we’re making so much noise with the sticks, everything else was kind of in the shadow of that,” martin said, per Stark. “But our defense was just supreme. I can’t think of another team that’s better than us. Kansas City was definitely up there, but I think we’re right up there with them.”

That combination of hitting and defense makes the Blue Jays one of the top World Series contenders entering 2016, and it should be enough to help them score an Opening Day victory over the Rays by a score of 6-3.

Mets vs. Royals

The 2015 MLB season ended with the Kansas City Royals defeating the New York Mets to win the World Series, and that matchup will anchor ESPN’s Opening Day coverage Sunday night, as the reigning World Series champs will host the defending National League champions.

There is a great deal of excitement surrounding both teams in 2016, and that is evidenced by the fact that tickets to the game are in such high demand, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

Part of that is likely due to the fact that the Royals will enjoy a World Series celebration, but there is also a great deal of intrigue surrounding a World Series matchup so early in the season since the previous format of interleague play didn’t allow for it to happen.

In addition to that, there is some mystery surrounding the Mets’ pitching situation, as originally scheduled starter Matt Harvey was scratched from his final spring training start due to what manager Terry Collins called a “non-baseball medical issue,” per Tim Rohan of the New York Times.

The ailment turned out to be a blood clot in his bladder, but Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News later reported that Harvey would be good to go against Edinson Volquez on Opening Day.

KC may be at a disadvantage when it comes to starting pitching even with Harvey potentially at less than 100 percent, but it still has one of the best bullpens in baseball, anchored by Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera.

In addition to that, it boasts a deep and talented lineup. Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon, among others, will lead it.

The Royals are also fantastic defensively, which allows them to win close games with great regularity, especially when they are able to manufacture some runs and get to the back end of their bullpen with a lead intact.

Kansas City was clutch throughout the postseason in 2015, particularly in the World Series, and that factor will help it come out on top with a 4-3 triumph over the Mets to begin its championship defense.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Who’s ready for baseball that actually counts?

Yes, it’s finally here. Sunday is the day the 2016 Major League Baseball season begins, and not just with one game to whet everyone’s appetite for Opening Day proper.

There are three games on tap. The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates will kick things off, followed by the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. The nightcap is a World Series rematch between the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals.

Let’s take a look at the matchups and predict how they’ll pan out.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

When: 1:05 p.m. ET

Where: PNC Park

TV: ESPN

Pitching Matchup: Adam Wainwright vs. Francisco Liriano

Adam Wainwright, whose 2.61 ERA since 2013 puts him among the very best, is back after being limited to seven appearances by a torn Achilles in 2015. And though the 34-year-old’s 2016 debut comes with a fair warning that he wasn’t great in spring training, you’ll know he’s on if he’s pounding the strike zone with an array of fastballs before finishing hitters off with his oh-so-beautiful curveball.

Though Gerrit Cole is the Pirates’ ace, the rib injury he battled this spring opened the door for Francisco Liriano to pitch a straight opener. The 32-year-old was a reclamation project when Pittsburgh brought him aboard in 2013, and now he’s a pitcher with a 3.26 ERA since then.

Liriano spends less time in the strike zone than any other pitcher, which is a habit that may lead to trouble against a Cardinals lineup known for working at-bats. But due to the sharp action on his sinker, slider and changeup, he can rack up strikeouts and soft contact as well as anyone when he’s on.

State of the Cardinals

The Cardinals led MLB with 100 wins in 2015, but they’ve since taken a few hits. Jason Heyward and John Lackey were lost to free agency. Lance Lynn is out for the year with an injury. Jhonny Peralta will be out for a while with an injury. Yadier Molina is still recovering from an injury.

However, they don’t mind the underdog label.

“If anything, it just puts a chip on your shoulder,” third baseman Matt Carpenter told Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. “You’re excited. You want to go out and play, and prove your worth, and show teams that, ‘Hey man, don’t forget about us. We’re still pretty good.'”

What the Cardinals should do well in 2016 is pitch. Wainwright’s return and the addition of Mike Leake could offset the losses of Lackey and Lynn, perhaps allowing the Cardinals to repeat last year’s MLB-leading 2.94 ERA.

But after finishing 11th in the National League in runs in 2015 and continuing to struggle this spring, the Cardinals offense is a question mark. They’ll need ol‘ standbys like Carpenter, Molina and Matt Holliday to be their best selves, and support from breakout candidates Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Kolten Wong certainly wouldn‘t hurt.

State of the Pirates

After winning 98 games in 2015, the Pirates also have a different look. A.J. Burnett retired. J.A. Happ and Pedro Alvarez both went elsewhere in free agency. Neil Walker was traded.

But the Pirates still have Andrew McCutchen, whose monstrous spring has him in line for another MVP-caliber season. And with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco alongside him, the Pirates have the makings of perhaps the best outfield in the majors.

And overall, the Pirates lineup has some nice depth. Though they’ll miss Jung Ho Kang as he recovers from a knee injury, David Freese is a good fill-in at third base. Josh Harrison is a good fill-in for Walker at second base. And in place of Alvarez, the Pirates now have John Jaso and his OBP talents at first base.

The mound is where things get iffy for these Pirates. With their rotation looking thin after Liriano and Cole, Albert Chen of SI.com isn’t wrong to wonder that it “may take a miracle” from Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage for the club to repeat last year’s rock-solid 3.21 ERA.

For now, though, the vibes are good. Searage has seemingly made an ace out of Juan Nicasio, and he has also facilitated Cory Luebke’s unlikely comeback. If this is a sign of things to come, Searage‘s legend as a pitching whisperer will continue to grow in 2016.

Prediction: Cardinals 3, Pirates 2

Though Wainwright hasn’t had the best spring, he’ll come out in vintage form to make it easy on the Cardinals lineup. It won’t get much off Liriano, but just enough will do for a season-opening win.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

When: 4:05 p.m. ET

Where: Tropicana Field

TV: ESPN2

Pitching Matchup: Marcus Stroman vs. Chris Archer

Marcus Stroman finally being ready for a full season has the baseball world atwitter. Though the 5’8″, 180-pound 24-year-old is lacking in ace size, he’s not lacking in ace stuff. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted a year ago that Stroman‘s six pitches (six!) are comparable to some of the best pitches in the game. To boot, he’s able to control all of them.

Archer, meanwhile, just had his ace breakout in 2015. In posting a 3.23 ERA, the 27-year-old struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings with relatively few walks on the side. He works off a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and he finishes hitters with a wipeout slider that David Price thinks is baseball’s best pitch:

One word of warning, though: Archer’s heat makes him tough for many teams to hit, but maybe not so much for a Blue Jays team that, per Baseball Savant, had the league’s highest slugging percentage against 95-plus fastballs in 2015.

State of the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays don’t look too different from the team that won 93 games a year ago.

That’s especially good news where their offense is concerned, as last year’s team led baseball in runs, home runs, OPS and numerous other categories. Their lethal trio of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion is back, and now they can look forward to a full year of Troy Tulowitzki.

“I wouldn‘t want to pitch against us,” Donaldson, the 2015 American League MVP, told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. “And there were a lot of guys we faced last year who were defeated before they even threw the first pitch. And those guys made their exit pretty quick.”

Though it’s easiest to focus on their run-scoring capabilities, the lineup the Blue Jays are returning in 2016 was also fantastic on defense last season. According to Baseball Prospectus, Toronto’s was the most efficient defense in baseball.

The Blue Jays’ offensive and defensive strengths should allow them to get away with merely good enough pitching in 2016. Despite the loss of Price to free agency, that’s doable. Stroman and Aaron Sanchez give Toronto’s starting rotation two pitchers with ace potential, and the back-end duo of Roberto Osuna and Drew Storen headlines a strong bullpen.

State of the Rays

The Rays were perfectly mediocre in winning 80 games last season. Looking ahead to 2016, though, it’s hard to know what to expect.

From one angle, the Rays can be seen as a team that probably doesn’t have quite enough pitching depth to support an offense that finished 14th in the American League in runs in 2015. From another angle, the Rays can be seen as a dangerous team. Baseball Prospectus actually favors them to win the AL East.

Though depth isn’t a strength, Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore lead a pitching staff that isn’t lacking in talent. Rays pitchers can also look forward to support from a defense that was among the best in 2015. And this year, runs may not be so hard to come by.

“We’ve got more thump at the top, and then we’ve got some speed looking more toward the back end of the lineup,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said last week, per the Associated Press (via the Boston Herald).

Cash may be right. Tampa Bay’s offense was drastically better in the second half of 2015. And with Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison and Steve Pearce coming aboard, it’s now noticeably deeper.

Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Rays 1

Archer is going to have an excellent year, but he’ll stumble out of the gate against baseball’s most explosive lineup. For his part, Stroman will give a taste of what’s sure to be a breakout season.

New York Mets at Kansas City Royals

When: 8:37 p.m. ET

Where: Kauffman Stadium

TV: ESPN

Pitching Matchup: Matt Harvey vs. Edinson Volquez

Between Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, the Mets couldn’t have gone wrong with their pick for Sunday’s game. But with a 2.53 career ERA, Harvey certainly has the creds of an Opening Day starter. He has the stuff, too. The 27-year-old sits in the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball and mixes in an above-average curveball, slider and changeup. 

The Royals will present a challenge for Harvey, though. He’s a strikeout pitcher all the way, and they’re a team that doesn’t strike out.

On the other side, Volquez has turned his career around with a 3.30 ERA over the last two years. That shows what a pitcher can do when he finally learns to throw strikes.

But as a pitcher who specializes in neither strikeouts nor contact management, the 32-year-old’s margin for error is always thin. A Mets lineup with good bats from top to bottom poses a real threat.

State of the Mets

After winning the NL East and the National League pennant last season, the Mets had everyone worried for a while during the winter. They lost Daniel Murphy to free agency and seemed doomed to also lose Yoenis Cespedes.

That didn’t happen, as New York re-signed Cespedes on a $75 million deal. With him and Walker, the former Pirate, in the lineup alongside names like Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto and Asdrubal Cabrera, the Mets should have one of the NL’s best offenses.

The downside is that said offense won’t play great defense. As Dave Cameron wrote at FanGraphs, the Mets are making a big bet against fielding. 

Fortunately, the Mets offense isn’t the only thing the team has to mitigate its defense. With Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Steven Matz and, eventually, Zack Wheeler, they have more than enough power arms to ensure gloves aren’t needed that often.

State of the Royals

The Royals won 95 games last year. They won the AL Central, the American League pennant and the World Series. So yeah, they were pretty good.

And going into 2016, they look largely the same. Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto are the big missing pieces. But the Royals retained Alex Gordon, and their $70 million payout to Ian Kennedy may not be as nuts as many think. A fly-ball pitcher like him is a great fit for Kauffman Stadium.

Elsewhere, key pieces like Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Kendrys Morales, Yordano Ventura, Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis are all back. This puts the Royals in a position to keep winning games the same way they’re used to: plenty of offense, excellent defense, shutdown relief pitching and just enough starting pitching.

Of course, the computers say this isn’t going to work. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Royals project as a last-place team.

But then again, the projections said the same thing last year. They’ll have to pardon us if we don’t feel like taking their word for it where the Royals are concerned.

Prediction: Royals 5, Mets 4

The Mets will have a better starting pitcher on the mound Sunday night, but the Royals are a good match for him. They’ll even out a rough start by Volquez, and their bullpen will be the difference in the later innings.

Regular-season stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Kansas City Royals will begin the defense of their 2015 World Series title Sunday night against the team they beat to win the championship, the New York Mets.

The Royals are listed at 14-1 odds to win the World Series again this season at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark, while the Mets are 12-1.

Two other games on the schedule for Sunday include the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Cardinals (18-1 to win the World Series) and Pirates (20-1) will both be trying to top the favored Chicago Cubs (5-1) this year, while the Blue Jays (10-1) are the leading American League team.

Kansas City will send Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA in 2015) to the mound after seeing his team defeat New York twice in his last two starts, including the World Series clincher in Game 5 that ended the franchise’s 30-year championship drought.

New York will counter with Matt Harvey (13-8, 2.71), who has been cleared to start after passing blood clots through his bladder. Harvey was scratched from his spring training start Tuesday to deal with the issue and threw a career-high 216 innings last season.

The Royals are 12-4 in their last 16 against National League opponents, including the World Series, while the Mets are 5-13 in their past 18 versus the AL.

St. Louis took 10 of the 19 meetings with Pittsburgh last year, according to the Odds Shark MLB Database, en route to winning its third consecutive NL Central title. The Cardinals, though, lost six of the 10 games played at PNC Park, where the Pirates went 53-28 last season.

Both finished ahead of Chicago in the division a year ago but find themselves battling public perception and the oddsmakers heading into the season.

St. Louis will give Adam Wainwright (2-1, 1.61) his first start since April 25 of last year in the opener while Pittsburgh rides with lefty Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.38).

Toronto will kick off the season against a young Tampa Bay team that is 40-1 to win the World Series on the baseball betting futures. The Blue Jays were eliminated by Kansas City in the AL Championship Series last season and hope to take the next step this year.

Marcus Stroman (4-0, 1.67) gets the call for Toronto here off a disappointing postseason in which he went 1-0 with a 4.19 ERA coming off a torn ACL he suffered during spring training. The Rays will go with ace Chris Archer (12-13, 3.23), who had a career-best 252 strikeouts last year.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Imagine, if you will, that the year is 2021.

Suspected performance-enhancing-drug cheats still haven’t gained entry into the Hall of Fame, but the Tampa Bay Rays have relocated to Montreal, the Oakland A’s now call San Antonio home and Bartolo Colon, at the age of 47, is still pitching.

While Colon’s awesomeness is transcendent and immune to the effects of time, the same can’t be said for the rest of Major League Baseball. In 2021, what would the best team we could build look like? Are today’s top stars still worthy of a spot? Or would they be replaced by younger, lesser-known talent?

This is the futuristic query we find ourselves trying to answer while sticking to these guidelines:

• Only players who will be on Opening Day rosters in 2016 or who have already made their big league debuts are eligible for consideration. That means we can’t choose top prospects like Lucas Giolito, Aaron Judge, Yoan Moncada or Julio Urias.

• Salaries are irrelevant, as our squad’s owners have deeper pockets than the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees combined. Talent is the only thing that matters.

So step into our TARDIS as we travel into the not-too-distant future and comprise a 14-player squad, made up of eight position players, five starting pitchers and a closer.

The picture above serves as a spoiler for one of those 14 spots. Can you correctly guess the rest of our roster before clicking ahead?

Unless otherwise noted, all ages referenced are as of Opening Day 2021.

Begin Slideshow

With April 3’s Opening Day finally in sight, now is the time to predict who will lead each league in some notable statistical categories.

This is obviously a shot in the dark, and there are always at least a few surprises that emerge over the course of the season.

However, a player’s recent track record, positive and negative regression factors and the teammates surrounding him all helped to make these a series of educated guesses.

Remember though, at the end of the day these are still just that—guesses.

The following includes predictions for the top five finishers in each league for the following categories:

• Batting Average
• Hits
• Home Runs
• RBI
• Runs
• Stolen Bases
• Wins
• ERA
• Strikeouts
• Saves

Also included is one player to “keep an eye on” in each category, highlighting someone who finished well off the leaderboard last season who could make a surprise push this coming season.

Begin Slideshow

The 2016 Major League Baseball season is nigh, so it’s time to offer some predictions to the baseball gods.

We need to get them in before Sunday, when Opening Day will arrive in the form of a tripleheader highlighted by a World Series rematch between the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. And when it comes to predictions for a new season, we dare not skimp the baseball gods.

We have predictions for pretty much everything. We’ll hit on who the best players will be. We’ll hit on who the best teams will be. We’ll hit on which players will be traded. We’ll hit on which team will disappoint. And so on and so on until we have a clear picture of how the 2016 season will play out.

Spoiler: We’re not going to be right about everything. The baseball gods demand predictions not so they can grant wishes but because doomed predictions are their nectar. They’re jerks like that.

Anyway, better get to it…

Begin Slideshow