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The MLB offseason is in full swing, as we have already seen a pair of blockbuster trades, three players accept qualifying offers and a few other low-level free-agent signings.

There is still a lot left to be decided between now and spring training, though, and with the winter meetings less than a month away, expect the hot stove to continue getting hotter in the days and weeks to come.

Predicting the offseason is tough to begin with, as so many teams play things close to the vest, and unexpected moves abound both in free agency and on the trade market.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at five unexpected moves that could really shake up the 2015-16 offseason if they were to come to fruition.

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When it comes to the New York Mets, two things are very clear:

1. They have the best starting pitching staff in baseball.
2. They have absolutely no chance of being able to retain all of their young pitching talent as they start to hit the free-agent market.

Matt Harvey, who will likely see a significant pay raise this year through arbitration, will be the first Mets young gun to hit the free-agent market in 2018, which is precisely why the trade chatter has already begun circulating around the 26-year-old right-hander. 

Trading Harvey at some point prior to 2018 may very well be a prudent move for the Mets, but that time is not now. There are far too many questions that the Mets need to answer prior to unloading arguably their best starting pitcher.

Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard have established themselves as dominant starters, and neither is going anywhere anytime soon. DeGrom will not become an unrestricted free agent until 2020, and Syndergaard will not hit the open market until 2021.

But the Mets need time to further evaluate Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler.

Matz has started only six regular-season games for the Mets and has been susceptible to injuries throughout the early stages of his career.

Wheeler has shown the talent to be a solid major league starter, but he is just 18-16 in 49 career starts. Wheeler also missed the entire 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Before making any moves with Harvey, the Mets will need to determine whether or not they can depend on Matz and Wheeler to fill out their starting pitching rotation on a long-term basis.

If the Mets do decide to trade Harvey, it will undoubtedly be for an All-Star-quality bat.

But are the Mets truly in need of another big-time bat in their lineup?

This is another question that must be answered before making any decisions with regard to Harvey’s future with the ballclub.

During the 2015 season, the tide clearly began to turn for the Mets after they acquired Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers, along with Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson from the Braves.

Prior to acquiring Cespedes, the Mets were the worst offensive team in the league. They were last in runs scored (3.5 runs per game) and hitting just .234 as a team.

After the Mets acquired Cespedes on July 31st, they incredibly transformed into the best offensive team in the National League, hitting .275 as a team and averaging 6.5 runs per game.

During that same period of time, the Mets were able to steamroll over a strong Washington Nationals team that had been leading them in the division for the first half of the season.

This was a clear indication that the only thing the Mets had been missing during the first half of the 2015 season was an offensive punch in their lineup. The pitching was there, as was the defense. As soon as the Mets added some power to their lineup, all of the pieces began to fall into place.

It is unlikely that the Mets will be able to re-sign Cespedes, who is now a free agent.

NLCS hero Daniel Murphy, who just turned down the Mets’ one-year $15.8 million qualifying offer, will also more than likely not be wearing a Mets uniform come Opening Day in 2016.

The loss of Cespedes and Murphy will, of course, leave a large hole in the lineup, but do the Mets really need to fill that hole by trading Harvey for an All-Star-caliber bat, or can they fit enough pieces together to fill that offensive void?

Seven-time All-Star David Wright should be back in the lineup from Opening Day in 2016 after missing 124 games this past season due to a back injury. If healthy, Wright is still one of the better-hitting third basemen in the league.

2015 rookie Michael Conforto has also demonstrated that he has the potential to be an above-average, if not All-Star-quality, bat in the lineup as an everyday left fielder. Conforto batted .270 with nine home runs and 26 RBI in just 56 games last season.

The loss of Cespedes and Murphy also frees up enough money for the Mets to go out and sign another decent bat on the free-agent market.

Ben Zobrist and Howie Kendrick are two potential options for the Mets.

Kendrick batted .295 with a .336 OBP last season while playing second base for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Zobrist, a member of the world-champion Kansas City Royals, batted .284 last season with a .364 OBP while playing multiple positions, including second base.

Either player would be a step up from Murphy defensively at second base while providing a bat at least somewhat comparable to Murphy’s in the lineup.

If Wright comes back strong in 2016, Conforto continues to develop and the team adds another decent bat to the lineup through free agency; it may be enough to fill the gap left by Cespedes and Murphy.

However, these are all big “ifs,” which is precisely why now is not the right time to trade Harvey.

If the Mets were to trade Harvey for a big bat this offseason, Matz goes on the DL again early next season and Wheeler is simply not the same pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, the team will be left with a depleted pitching staff, which makes winning a World Series extremely difficult.

And if all of the pieces fall into place on the offensive side, the Mets may not even need to bring in some additional offensive power at the expense of arguably their best starting pitcher in order to make another World Series run in 2016.

Harvey will almost certainly be traded before he hits free agency in 2018. It may even occur prior to the 2016 trade deadline.

But the Mets have far too many questions that need to be answered before sending the Dark Knight out of Gotham.

Unless otherwise specified, all statistics for this article came from baseball-reference.com or mlb.com.

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The 2015-16 MLB offseason is just starting to pick up steam here midway through the month of November, though there have been some significant moves already made.

Free agents A.J. Pierzynski and Franklin Gutierrez both opted to re-sign, the Yankees and Twins pulled off a swap of Aaron Hicks-for-John Ryan Murphy and the Mariners acquired Joaquin Benoit from the Padres for a pair of prospects.

There is still obviously a ton to be sorted out between now and the start of spring training, though, and the rumor mill is in full swing as a result.

With that in mind, here is a look at five somewhat surprising rumors from early this offseason that actually have a good chance of coming to fruition in the days and weeks to come.

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It’s only Week 1 of the 2015-2016 MLB offseason, but the trade market is already buzzing.

Per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the Los Angeles Angels have landed Andrelton Simmons from the Atlanta Braves, and there’s plenty of speculation swirling around other prominent players.

When it comes to tackling the biggest questions of the week, trade rumors involving All-Stars like Aroldis Chapman and Brett Gardner dominate the conversation. However, there’s also room on the list for a look at which former big league outfielder could be set to replace Don Mattingly for the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

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Ballparks around the majors might be empty right now, but baseball’s second season has officially begun.

The Hot Stove League is underway, and teams have wasted little time to get the wheeling and dealing underway, with a handful of trades already completed. But the rumor mill continues to pick up speed as chatter and speculation surrounding potential free-agent destinations and more significant trades picks up.

Is a high-profile free agent going to return to where his career began? Will a defensive wizard be wielding his mighty glove for a new team? Can a team trade away multiple pieces of its outfield and actually improve?

We’ll tackle all of that and more in this week’s edition of “Fact or Fiction.”

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The MLB general managers meetings were assured to spill plenty of buzz on what’s developing as one of the most exciting offseasons in recent memory. 

Much of the hot stove has centered on the 139 players that initially filed for free agency and became eligible to sign with new teams last Saturday. But trade talks have also surfaced as personnel planners convene in Boca Raton, Florida. 

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that, while thin among a free-agent field, there’s an exceptional trade market for some of the game’s top closers, such as the Cincinnati Reds’ Aroldis Chapman, the San Diego Padres’ Craig Kimbrel and, most recently, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Mark Melancon.

“Everyone’s closer is available,” one GM told Heyman. “People, especially the young GMs, have no fear of trading their closer.”

With bullpens stealing the hot stove early this week, here’s what’s buzzing on a few of the game’s top closers.

Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres were easily last offseason’s most ambitious team with a slew of personnel changes by first-year GM A.J. Preller, capped with a trade for lights-out closer Craig Kimbrel the night before Opening Day. 

Kimbrel had a strong 2015 but not to par with his tenure with the Atlanta Braves, in which he led the majors in saves for four straight years. Kimbrel finished with a career-low 39 saves last year, and the Padres never manifested their hopeful run in the competitive NL West. 

Kimbrel still remains one of the game’s top closers and could be a valuable asset to a contending team—which he hasn’t been a part of the last two seasons. The Braves’ ongoing offensive struggles limited his save opportunities and made him trade bait in what wound up his final season in Atlanta.

Heyman reported there are “seven or eight” teams interested in Kimbrel, including the Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals. 

The Yankees pursued Kimbrel at the trade deadline, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, and Heyman reported they are willing to deal their standout closer, Andrew Miller. Kimbrel would bring velocity Miller can’t match, but the Yankees have Miller locked up through 2018, per Spotrac, and would be wise only to pursue Kimbrel if Miller is dealt.

Tigers GM Al Avila says he’s also in the market for a closer, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, and they make the most sense among interested parties. 

Detroit missed the postseason for the first time in five years, and its last October exit rested strictly on the bullpen. The Tigers used a hybrid trio of closers once trading Joakim Soria and have the financial flexibility to assume Kimbrel’s three remaining years at $37.5 million, per Spotrac. 

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are reportedly shopping triple-digits closer Aroldis Chapman, according to Robert Murray of Baseball Essential.

Chapman is entering his final year of arbitration and will become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, according to Rotoworld. The Reds had the second-worst record in baseball and presented Chapman just 36 save opportunities this year, with which he converted 33.

He simply doesn’t make sense to remain in Cincinnati, though the Reds know Chapman’s high value and will charge potential suitors at a premium, per Heyman. They were reportedly seeking three to four top prospects at last year’s trade deadline, per Murray. 

Chapman’s interested parties were largely aligned with Kimbrel’s at last year’s deadline, per Heyman, though one team in particular has long stood out, per James Wagner of the Washington Post:

Chapman would make sense in Washington but at the right price. The Nationals have a consistently improving farm system, most recently ranked No. 9 by Baseball America, that could help the Reds in their rebuild. 

The Reds are smart to begin the bidding now before Chapman hits free agency in a similar shopping last year of Johnny Cueto, who they eventually dealt to the Kansas City Royals for three pitching prospects. Cueto is now a free agent expected to command a nine-figure deal, and the Reds have bolstered their middle-of-the-pack farm system.

They’d be wise to take a similar course again.

Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates

Chapman and Kimbrel have long been linked to trade talks, but Melancon, the majors’ top closer with 51 saves last year, has made a surprising emergence. 

Heyman reported two rival GMs indicated the Trevor Hoffman Award winner is “out there for the taking” but didn’t specify any potential suitors.

As the Reds are with Chapman, the Pirates only have one year of club control left over Melancon, 30, though they have much more use for an esteemed closer having won a second-best 98 games last year. 

But, as Tom Singer of MLB.com noted, the nature of the position lends itself to fickle stability in the long run:

The Pirates have played in the NL Wild Card Game each of the last three seasons, losing the past two, giving all the more push to win the NL Central and avoid the one-game shootout. But they’ll have to top the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, both of whom are expected to be as good, if not better, next season. 

While it may make long-term sense to capitalize on return value for the worthy closer, if the Pirates are truly committed to winning the pennant, the past three years have proven they’ll need to have every piece in place. 

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For guys like Doug Fister and Mike Napoli, it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle in this offseason’s MLB free-agent market, which is flat-out stacked.

From Zack Greinke to Yoenis Cespedes, the class is historically impressive, as one agent explained to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:

“This [is] the deepest [free-agent] market in memory, especially in terms of pitching and power.”

With the marketplace awash with talent, it’s not out of the question to think that supply could end up exceeding demand. If that happens, lower-profile players like Fister and Napoli could end up being surprise steals for their next employers.

Starting pitchers and power hitters dominate the list that follows, but there’s also room for one table-setter who is aiming to rebound from an injury-riddled 2015.

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The MLB general managers meetings convene this weekend, and an already hot stove will get even hotter as personnel planners meet on the shores of Boca Raton, Florida. 

The yearly gathering is where GMs discuss the state of the game, rules, labor and other topics. But it’s also the early propellant for free-agent and trade talks as the offseason kicks into full swing.

Free agency began Saturday when players became eligible to sign with new clubs, and qualifying offers are out and must be decided on by Friday. 

There is plenty of buzz on how the landscape will shuffle in the coming months. As one agent noted to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports: “This the deepest (free-agent) market in memory, especially in terms of pitching and power.”

With the GM meetings set to begin Tuesday, here’s a look at the latest buzz surrounding a few faces on the fresh market.

Cubs are favorites to land David Price

The Chicago Cubs boasted baseball’s third-best record and were four wins from their first World Series appearance since 1945 in a season their highly touted prospects finally reached the majors. 

They’re young, talented and hungry—possibly with an appetite of $200 million. 

ESPN Insider Buster Olney reported rival evaluators indicated “the Cubs to be heavy, heavy favorites” to sign David Price, arguably this offseason’s most coveted free agent.

It’s no secret the Cubs are in the market for starting pitching this offseason, even with Jake Arrieta’s Cy Young-caliber year and last offseason’s signing of Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million contract. 

A lack of offense was the primary cause they were swept in the National League Championship Series by the New York Mets. But their rotation was also exposed as very top-heavy.

Price has said his premium is winning, but he’s also expected to command more than $200 million. There are only a handful of teams that can offer both—and one stands out as the most logical.

By signing with Chicago, Price would also reunite with manager Joe Maddon, whom he spent his first six-plus seasons of his career with as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Price also hinted his interest during the 2014 All-Star break, per Barry Bloom of MLB.com (via RaysBaseball.com), when the Cubs were in last place:

Winning is absolutely something you want to do. Being a part of something special is also something you want to do. You can take that to a first-place team, or you can take that to a last-place team like the Cubs. With the talent they have coming up, they could be a very special team in a few years as well. That would probably be the coolest city to win a championship in right now.

He even poked fun at the idea with Arrieta on Twitter earlier this summer:

The Cubs are already the favorites to win the 2016 World Series, per Odds Shark, but adding Price will further skyrocket their potential. And he probably knows that.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Heyward could haul nearly $200 million 

Jason Heyward is considered the No. 2 position player on the market, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, given his age, remarkable defense and flashes of power. 

He’s expected to command nearly $200 million over a lengthy tenure, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, leaving few options for affordable suitors.

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors gave an analysis on the left-handed outfielder, with a few speculated landing spots:

He doesn’t have the typical power output of a $200MM player, but his all-around game makes him a sabermetric darling with six wins above replacement this year.  A very long term and an opt-out clause are on the table for Heyward because he broke into the Majors at age 20, and is now just 26.  

The Cardinals will try to convince Heyward to stay, but teams like the Angels, Yankees, White Sox, and Astros could make a play.

Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago indicated the Cubs are also a player. Their 2015 center fielder, Dexter Fowler, is expected to reject the qualifying offer the Cubs made, according to Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune, and hit the free-agent market. Should Fowler leave, there’d be a big void Heyward could fill—particularly given hybrid Kyle Schwarber, who was brought up playing catcher, continues to play in left field due to team needs. 

The Atlanta Braves traded Heyward away last offseason for Shelby Miller knowing the outfielder would have a price tag outside their reach. In the process, they picked up an above-par starter they’d have control over through 2018, per Spotrac. In the midst of a massive rebuild, a reunion seem highly unlikely. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are probably in a similar boat, with the eighth-highest payroll ($102.9 million) for 2016, per Spotrac, a number that will only increase by spring training. 

The New York Yankees or Los Angeles Angels make the most sense in terms of financial flexibility and specific needs. Brendan Kuty of NJ.com speculated New York might stand pat with its current offense, though as a team known to be aggressive—and one that lost its grip of the AL East in the final third of the season—the Yanks seem like they could break out big to win now.

A fair argument could be made Heyward hasn’t lived up to the hype since breaking into the league in 201—he’s a career .263 hitter and has belted more than 20 home runs in a season only once. But he entered the league with massive expectations as Baseball America‘s No. 1 prospect ahead of Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, among others. 

His caveat is his age. Even if he’s signed to a seven- to nine-year deal, Heyward would still be in his mid-30s. There’s plenty of prime left for him to elevate into the player most believed he’d be.

Prediction: New York Yankees

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The baseball universe has descended on sunny Boca Raton, Florida, for the annual general manager meetings and official start of the hot stove league. Agents, general managers and, quite likely, a smattering of players are making the rounds and laying the groundwork for deals down the road.

While none of these talks revolve around landing a condo at the exclusive Del Boca Vista, the chatter coming out of Florida has been focused on pitching—including a number of high-profile, All-Star-caliber arms—which is a bit surprising when you consider how deep the free-agent pitching market is.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and pure speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have actually been discussed.

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A week removed from baseball, MLB‘s offseason rumor mill has quickly reached full throttle with trade and free-agent chatter.

Friday foreboded a messy free-agency period when a record 20 players received qualifying offers, meaning teams must cough up a first-round draft pick to sign someone who declines the one-year, $15.8 million deal. One of those guys already has a potential suitor after his red-hot October.

Trades don’t usually develop until winter meetings, but the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays wasted little time reaching a six-player deal. Logan Morrison, Brad Miller and Danny Farquhar were sent to Tampa, while Nathan Karns, Boog Powell and C.J. Riefenhauser went to Seattle. The quick transaction could open the floodgates to more swift maneuvering.

Let’s circle the league for early offseason rumblings on the trade and free-agent fronts.

Nationals Plan to Keep Papelbon, Storen

No team fell shorter of expectations than the Washington Nationals. The preseason favorites to win it all and a virtual lock to capture the National League East, they instead missed the playoffs altogether.

A disastrous season turned even uglier when midseason acquisition Jonathan Papelbon attacked Bryce Harper—who did his part with a season deserving of MVP honors—for not running out a lazy pop fly.  

The sensible thing to do is cut ties with the guy choking teammates, but Papelbon’s younger peer instead helped calm the waters. According to the Washington Post‘s Thomas Boswell, Harper “reached out to Jonathan Papelbon to make sure their relationship as teammates is functional next season.” Not only is the hostile closer staying put, but sources within the organization told Boswell that the team also intends on keeping Drew Storen.

“In a related note, Nats people also say the team’s current plan is to have both Papelbon and Drew Storen in the back end of their bullpen again next year, with the expectation that they will work out a way to ‘play nice together,'” Boswell wrote.

Storen dazzled as Washington’s ninth-inning man, posting a 1.64 ERA into Aug. 1. Whether a coincidence or frustration over his switch to a setup role behind Papelbon, he then surrendered 16 runs—14 earned—over the final two months. He ended his season by punching a locker and breaking his thumb. 

The Philadelphia Phillies struggled to find a taker on the 34-year-old Papelbon due to a 2016 vesting option. Washington bit and guaranteed an $11 million option, as noted by Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which Papelbon agreed to reduce from $13 million. 

If moving an expensive reliever isn’t hard enough, moving an expensive reliever and temperamental bully who chokes superstar teammates should prove impossible. Pitching in the eighth inning is no different than pitching in the ninth inning, so the Nationals will hope Storen reverts into a lights-out setup man.

Veterans on the Trade Block

Teams hoping Washington would part with a high-end reliever can pursue another veteran reportedly available, while any team needing a left-handed bat also has a feasible target, as ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted:

One of baseball’s most reliable late-inning arms, Joaquin Benoit posted a 2.34 ERA and 0.90 WHIP for the San Diego Padres in 2015. Over the past three seasons, he has notched a 1.86 ERA and 200 strikeouts through 186.2 innings

The Padres recently exercised the 38-year-old’s $7.5-million option for 2016, a fair but steep price for a reliever, while also rostering All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. Benoit’s lowest strikeout percentage since 2008, as noted by FanGraphs, also creates cause for concern.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers are shopping Adam Lind a year after acquiring him from the Toronto Blue Jays. The first baseman lived up to expectations, hitting .277/.360/.460 with 20 long balls. Milwaukee, however, crumbled to a 68-94 finish, creating low expectations for 2016.

During the season, Milwaukee began the rebuilding cycle by dealing Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra. Lind will return for an affordable $8 million, but the solid slugger isn’t leading the club back into contention, especially not in the loaded National League Central. 

Rather than waste steady gains from the 32-year-old, the Brewers will search for younger talent they can control beyond 2016. An affordable hitter who crushes right-handed pitchers, Lind should attract interest across the league.

Rockies Eyeing Daniel Murphy

After belting seven postseason home runs, Daniel Murphy earned a qualifying offer from the New York Mets. The National League champions have made no efforts to woo the second baseman, whose comments after the World Series indicated the end of a run.

“I’ve enjoyed my time here,” Murphy said after losing to the Kansas City Royals, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. “I really have enjoyed my time. This organization has been great to me. I love the guys. I can’t sing their praises enough. I feel blessed to have been a Met.”

Due to Murphy’s postseason success, he’s an unlikely candidate to accept the qualifying offer. According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, one team is already interested in his services, if he’s willing to change positions:

Teams probably discuss a lot of kooky things which never see the light of day. Would Ben Zobrist be willing to play every position every game? What if we signed Bartolo Colon as a pinch hitter to increase team morale? A conversation doesn’t always lead to action.

Yet Murphy—a third baseman by trade who moved to steer clear of David Wright—has showcased uneven defense throughout his career. FanGraphs has discredited him for minus-42 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at second since 2011, but he looked decent fielding at first while briefly replacing an injured Lucas Duda in 2015. 

Coors Field is perceived as a homer haven, but it produced more hits of any kind than any other stadium, as measured by ESPN.com’s park factors. A career .288 hitter is likely to hit comfortably over .300 there, and even if his October power surge was an outlier, he could easily hit 20 homers with the Rockies.

The Rockies would have to concede a compensatory draft pick to the Mets, but perhaps they’ll want to return the favor after New York bizarrely poached Michael Cuddyer away from Colorado last year. 

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