Tag: Preview/Prediction

2016 MLB Free Agents: Latest Rumors and Predictions on Underrated Options

Enough about actual baseball. Sure, either the New York Mets or Kansas City Royals will end three decades of futility sometime in the next week. And great, the World Series will feature a cabal of young stars with bright personalities. And, OK, Jacob deGrom does have super dope hair.

But you know what else is super dope? Free agency. For 28 of the 30 MLB teams, that’s all they have going for themselves at the moment. Just rapidly dropping temperatures, slightly ornery owners and the potential of grabbing superstar players on the market.

David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton lead a surprisingly start-studded class. The likes of MLB home run king Chris Davis, Mets hero Yoenis Cespedes and Royals all-around star Alex Gordon would lead most classes, but they’re toward the bottom of most top-10 lists this year. With Zack Greinke and Ben Zobrist also hitting the open market, it’s going to be a record-setting winter for contracts.

However, all those stars leave a number of players dipping into the market under the radar. Here’s a quick look at a few who stand out as potential values and rumors on their potential destinations. 

 

C Matt Wieters

The last two years have been a nightmare for Wieters. He’s played in just 101 games due to injury, combined for 13 home runs and saw his defense fall off a cliff. After being consistently among baseball’s most productive defensive catchers in the first half-decade of his MLB career, Wieters was barely above average in 2014 and 2015.

That makes Wieters a prime under-the-radar pickup. In most cases, we give pitchers one full season, and sometimes two, before expecting them to fully recover from Tommy John surgery. It’s strange that Wieters hasn’t been afforded the same leeway. Playing catcher takes a toll on a player’s shoulder, and the constant wear and tear is a detriment to his ability to regain power. 

“I think that’s probably a test every free agent goes through,” Wieters said, per Roch Kubatko of MASN. “They run you through a battery of tests. But I’m confident once I get home and get back to a normal offseason that I’m going to feel great for next year. I’m actually looking forward to a normal offseason and not having to do rehab after rehab for the whole offseason.”

Folks may forget just how good Wieters was before the injury. He has been at least a two-win player in each of his four seasons with at least 100 games, peaking during a 4.4-win 2011 campaign, per FanGraphs. He was also well on his way to his best offensive season before going down in 2014, posting a .308/.339/.500 slash line with five home runs and 18 RBI in 26 games.

That is precisely the reason the Texas Rangers are interested in Wieters if he does not receive a qualifying offer, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. With a year to fully prepare, Wieters could very easily be a bargain on a short-term deal as he prepares to turn 30 in May.

 

SP Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmermann is no stranger to anyone who pays attention. He’s been consistently rock-solid since his 2011 return from Tommy John surgery, posting quality numbers and avoiding the disabled list like a charm. He’s made no fewer than 26 starts in the last five seasons and at least 32 in four of those campaigns.

“That’s the word that comes to my mind, is consistency,” former Nationals manager Matt Williams told reporters. “Durable. Reliable. For a starting pitcher that’s important and he’s provided this organization that for a long time. It’s always tough having Tommy John. He’s responded from that. He’s worked to become the pitcher he has become. I admire him for that and respect him for the way he goes about it every fifth day.”

Durability and dependability aren’t sexy traits. Zimmermann’s never going to sell a ton of jerseys or be a foundational ace. He works best as a second or elite third starter, where the expectations are relatively low but the production is still high.

This is what makes him a secondary option behind the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto on the open market. It’s likely he’ll hang on the market a bit longer than the others, waiting until the dust settles before scoring his long-term deal.

Zimmermann nonetheless has a chance to be nearly as valuable over the length of his contract as any of that trio. This season was his worst since his Tommy John surgery, and he still posted a 13-10 record with a 3.66 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Only 10 other pitchers have a higher wins above replacement over the last five seasons, all of whom are considered among the true greats.

Zimmermann, for whatever reason, is viewed as a step down. If his contract reflects that, he’ll be a real value. With the Dodgers having reported interest dating back to midseason, these two might be a solid pairing if Greinke heads elsewhere.

 

OF Austin Jackson

Traded twice in as many seasons, Jackson is not hitting free agency at the ideal time. He hit .236/.304/.375 with one home run and 10 RBI in 29 games after being traded to the Cubs at the waiver deadline. It mirrored his 2014 campaign, where Jackson’s production fell off a cliff after a midseason swap to Seattle.

After posting 14.8 wins above replacement in his first four MLB seasons, Jackson has 3.2 in his last two. He was caught stealing a career-high 11 times in 2015, didn’t get a single hit in eight postseason at-bats and was so shaky down the stretch it wasn’t even certain whether he’d make the October roster.

Throw all that out the window for a second. Jackson is a 289-year-old outfielder with solid speed and power who has been a good-to-above-average defensive player since his MLB arrival. In 107 games with Seattle before the trade, Jackson was hitting .272/.312/.387 with eight home runs, 38 RBI and 15 steals. Those are right in line with the Jackson of Detroit, who was a player any franchise could have used.

While he finished dreadfully in Chicago, Jackson still posted a 2.3 WAR in 2015. He’s truthfully had only one bad MLB season. Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys even suggested a return to Detroit might be what Jackson and the Tigers both need: “While his recent numbers are concerning, Jackson has a strong track record in the Tigers organization and won’t have a draft pick tied to his name. If Detroit is interested in a reunion, he could fill a versatile role in their outfield in 2016.”

The key here will be cost, and Jackson hasn’t done nearly enough in recent seasons to command a big contract. It’ll all be a team banking on him returning to his Detroit form—and not getting traded somewhere along the way. 

 

Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

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World Series Schedule: TV Info and Live Stream for Mets vs. Royals Game 1

The time has come to decide which long-suffering franchise will put a storybook ending on their season, as the 2015 World Series begins Tuesday with Game 1 of what’s sure to be an enticing series.

The Kansas City Royals make an appearance in the World Series for a second straight year, coming drastically close to ending their now-30-year title drought last season when they took the San Francisco Giants to seven games. The New York Mets haven’t made it this far since 2000, when the Yankees edged them in the Subway Series.

We’ll begin to find out Tuesday evening which club is ready to make the ascension to world champions in Game 1, so let’s take a look at everything to know for that matchup.

 

Game 1 Info

When: Tuesday, October 27

Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City

Time (ET): 8:07 p.m.

TV: Fox

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

 

Preview

The Mets roster is pretty chock-full of players who are in no way experienced on the postseason stage. But you couldn’t tell it by the way they ripped through the previous round.

Against another young squad in the Chicago Cubs, the Mets dominated the National League Championship Series at the rate that made it not even look competitive. New York swept Chicago in four quick games, aided by Daniel Murphy’s continued unconscious hitting and timely knocks from the rest of the lineup.

Murphy’s six-straight postseason games with a home run—a MLB record—are getting a lot of the publicity, but it’s no secret the Mets’ arms are paving the way to this run. A three-headed rotation of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard is proving too much for opposing lineups to deal with.

Even with all three in their first postseasons, they’re pitching like seasoned veterans and will have the Royals’ hands full, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News:

While no Mets player looks scared off by the bright lights of the postseason, the Royals obviously aren’t, either. A mere nine outs from elimination in the ALDS against Houston, Kansas City rallied back to get back in that series and edged the Toronto Blue Jays in impressive fashion.

The Royals’ arms don’t have the name recognition that the Mets’ arms have been getting, but they have a similar chance to dominate the series. Edinson Volquez gets the start in Game 1, while Yordano Ventura and Johnny Cueto have proven capable of shutdown performances.

When it comes down to it, the Royals are the ones who are experienced at this stage after coming one Madison Bumgarner performance away from the championship last year. But manager Ned Yost isn’t convinced that will play a part in the series, per Jacob Albracht of KWCH (Kansas City):

I don’t really see it as an advantage,” Yost said. “We didn’t have any playoff experience last year, and we took it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series.”

Nerves may not have prevented the Royals from putting together a serious surge at the title last year, but they’re obviously going to feel a lot more comfortable this time around. Beginning the series in Kaufman Stadium will only help that, as Kansas City has gotten a considerable boost when playing in the confines.

The Mets will undoubtedly have to shake off some of those nerves early on, but they shouldn’t be expected to hang around for long. In the end, they’re just going out and doing what they’ve done their whole lives—playing baseball.

Only this time, the whole world is watching, and they’ll be forever remembered by how they perform.

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Mets vs. Royals: Keys for Each Team to Win World Series Game 1

When the 2015 World Series finally comes to an end, so too will three decades of frustration for the Fall Classic’s two participants—the Kansas City Royals and New York Mets.

For it was 30 years ago, in 1985, that the Royals last won a world championship, besting the St. Louis Cardinals in a seven-game series. A year later, the Mets—with a little help from Bill Buckner—took down the Boston Red Sox, also in seven games.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Before we can start talking about streaks ending and Game 7, we have to deal with Game 1, which will be played under American League rules and pit New York’s Matt Harvey against Kansas City’s Edinson Volquez at Kauffman Stadium Tuesday night.

How important is winning Game 1 of the World Series? Over the past 10 editions of the Fall Classic, the team that emerged victorious in Game 1 went on to win it all nine times.

The only team that emerged victorious after dropping the series opener was the 2009 New York Yankees, who took down Philadelphia in six games after dropping the opening game 6-1 in front of a packed house at Yankee Stadium. 

What follows are the keys each team will have to hit on if they hope to wind up on the right side of recent history when things get underway at 8:07 p.m. ET.

 

Big Names Must Make Their Presence Felt

While it might seem as if Alcides Escobar and Daniel Murphy have been the only consistently productive hitters for the Royals and Mets in the playoffs, both teams have gotten quality performances from a handful of players.

Escobar, along with Kendrys Morales and Ben Zobrist, have essentially carried the Royals, while Murphy, Curtis Granderson and Wilmer Flores have been standouts for the Mets. Could they continue to swing hot bats in Game 1 of the World Series? Sure.

But should one (or more) of them falter, someone else has to pick up the slack—and there’s no shortage of big names on both teams that have yet to meet expectations in the playoffs.

You could build a formidable lineup with that list, one that would pose problems for nearly any pitcher the opposition could throw against it. Whether any of those eight players makes life difficult for Matt Harvey or Edinson Volquez will go a long way toward deciding which team jumps out to an early series lead. 

 

Matt Harvey Must Mix Things Up

New York may have finished the regular season with baseball’s third-highest average fastball velocity (93.4 mph), but each of the team’s four scheduled World Series starters—including Matt Harvey—has a heater that sits above 95 mph.

“Successful pitchers pitch to their strength,” Mets manager Terry Collins told the Wall Street Journal‘s Jared Diamond. “If that’s your main pitch, that’s what you’re throwing. What you’ve got to do is make good pitches with it.”

Making good pitches with the heater will be of paramount importance for Harvey, as he’ll be going up against what is arguably the best fastball-hitting team in baseball—especially when those heaters are leaving smoke trails on their way to home plate.

“It’s mixing our pitches and not relying on our effective velocity,” Harvey told Diamond. “We’ve done our homework here, and we know what Kansas City is about.”

What Kansas City is about is putting the bat on the ball. No team made contact more consistently than the Royals did during the regular season. They also struck out less than any other team, while only Miami drew fewer walks.

Those first two stats don’t bode well for a Mets rotation that has relied heavily on its ability to make teams swing and miss, with 69 strikeouts over 54.1 postseason innings.

While Harvey has shown the ability to pitch backward before, where he starts at-bats with breaking balls and off-speed stuff to set up his fastball later in the count, he’s never faced a lineup quite like the one he’ll be going up against in Game 1.

Should he begin to fall behind batters due to a lack of command (or questionable calls by the home plate umpire), it could be a dark night for the Dark Knight.

 

Both Teams Must Do a Better Job Controlling the Running Game

Neither Travis d’Arnaud nor Salvador Perez did a great job controlling the opposition’s running game during the regular season, which found both throwing out less than 33 percent of would-be base stealers.

That’s going to be a problem in the World Series, as the Mets (9-for-11) and Royals (7-for-10) have no problem sending a runner when the opportunity presents itself.

While it’s fair to say it will be more of an issue for the Mets once the series shifts to New York and National League rules, given the speed the Royals carry on their bench (especially Jarrod Dyson), it would be foolish and shortsighted to think we won’t see someone take off running in Game 1.

If both starting pitchers are at the top of their games and baserunners are at a premium in Game 1, momentum—and ultimately the game—could be decided by one frenetic 90-foot sprint.

 

Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

Hit me up on Twitter to talk baseball: @RickWeinerBR.

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Head-to-Head World Series Matchups That Will Decide the 2015 MLB Champ

It’s finally here, baseball fans: The 2015 MLB World Series starts Tuesday night. 

Over the following days, the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals will take part in the latest installment of the Fall Classic.” Before the first pitch of Game 1 is thrown, let’s dive into some head-to-head matchups that could decide which team raises the trophy. 

Obviously, both the Mets and Royals have deep and talented rosters. New York’s run through October has been behind an elite starting rotation, while Kansas City has returned to the World Series behind a similar formula that gave it success last season. 

Both teams will be aware of the other team’s strengths and will key on countering them down throughout the course of the series.

Will Travis d’Arnaud be able to shut down the Kansas City running game? Which matters more: Johnny Cueto’s recent struggles or his career success over a good chunk of the Mets order? Will an overly aggressive Royals lineup play right into the hands of a strikeout-heavy Mets rotation?

We’ll take a closer look at those questions and try to determine which team may have the upper hand. Let us know what you think in the comments section below. What’s the key matchup in this series? What are some weaknesses that each team can exploit? 

Matchups matter in a seven-game series. Over the course of this slideshow, we’ll identify a handful of key aspects that will determine the World Series champion. 

Begin Slideshow


Mets vs. Royals: Game 1 Time, TV Info, Live Stream and More

This might not have been the World Series matchup everyone was expecting, but the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals should create an interesting series.

The Royals entered the playoffs with the best record in the American League, although the Toronto Blue Jays offense and the Houston Astros’ young talent led many to predict an upset. Meanwhile, the Mets pulled off the surprise, winning the National League pennant despite having the league’s fifth-best record during the regular season.

Of course, none of that matters heading into the upcoming best-of-seven series. It will all start with both sides trying to get the edge in Tuesday’s all-important Game 1.

 

Game 1 Info

When: Tuesday, Oct. 27

Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Time: 8:07 p.m. ET

TV: Fox

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Probable Pitchers: Matt Harvey (Mets) vs. Edinson Volquez (Royals)

 

Preview

The Mets were dominant in their National League Championship Series sweep of the Chicago Cubs, winning all four games without trailing for a moment. While the focus has been on the team’s young pitching, the hitting has been just as impressive.

Daniel Murphy has earned all of the headlines in the postseason thanks to his .421 batting average and seven home runs in nine games. Meanwhile, Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes have played well, too, with seven RBI apiece in the same stretch. David Wright, Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud have also showed they are capable of picking up big hits.

The problem is that sweeps don’t always lead to success in the next round, as MLB Stat of the Day noted:

As hot as Murphy and the rest of the Mets hitters have been in the playoffs, a six-day break is not going to help them sustain their strong play.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports looked at a positive side of the long layoff:

Of course, nine days off for Matt Harvey might be too long for him to stay in a rhythm, as well. The 26-year-old pitcher was excellent against the Cubs, allowing just two runs in 7.2 innings, but a long layoff and a road game in a hostile atmosphere could make things tougher.

Opposing starter Edinson Volquez has been inconsistent in the playoffs, giving up five runs against the Blue Jays in his most recent start after tossing six shutout innings in Game 1. Throughout his career, the 32-year-old veteran is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA in the postseason.

One of the big differences, however, is that Volquez does not need to go deep into the game to be effective. If he throws five solid innings, the bullpen—led by Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson and especially Wade Daviscan take care of business.

This mindset also helps the Royals hitters, who know they can come from behind late. Alcides Escobar and Ben Zobrist were excellent in the American League Championship Series, but Kansas City will trot out a deep lineup featuring quality hitters such as Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and others who are all capable of coming through with an RBI when the opportunity presents itself.

Manager Ned Yost discussed his confidence going into the series, which stems from the disappointment of last year’s heartbreaking World Series loss, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News:

Last year, we hadn’t been there – and we were one historic performance from Madison Bumgarner away from winning the World Series. Now, the experience definitely helps us a little bit on our side because we’ve been there before, we know what it’s like. The confidence that these guys have, and our abilities, they knew from the first day of spring training that we’d be back here, and here we are.

Nerves will not be a problem for the Royals, and you can expect them to keep fighting inning after inning.

Look for the Mets to build an early lead in Game 1 against Volquez before surrendering a few runs in the middle innings. It will be a long series, but the home team will come away with the opening victory.

Prediction: Royals win 4-3.

 

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for more year-round sports analysis. 

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World Series 2015: Schedule and Predictions for Mets vs. Royals Game 1

The Fall Classic has finally arrived, with the incumbent American League champion Kansas City Royals taking on the surprising New York Mets, who have made it to the World Series for the first time in 15 years.

This mouth-watering matchup, pitting the outstanding Mets starting pitchers against the resilient Royals lineup, has the odds at dead even, per Odds Sharksetting up what hopes to be a lengthy best-of-seven series.

With each team going for its first World Series title since Ronald Reagan occupied the White House, here is a preview of Game 1:

On Monday, Royals manager Ned Yost announced right-hander Edinson Volquez will be the Game 1 starter, per Matt Axisa of CBS Sports, opposite Mets righty Matt Harvey.

Unfamiliarity could steer the matchup in the Mets’ favor, as Alex Rios is the only Royals batter who has faced Harvey in his career, going 1-for-3 while playing for the Chicago White Sox in 2013, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Harvey is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two playoff starts and will be pitching on nine days’ rest. He’s anchoring a quartet of high-velocity starters alongside Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven MatzYost believes all four Mets starters are aces, per Erik Boland of Newsday.

“They’re all good,” Yost said. “You look at all four starters that they’re going to start, they’re all phenomenal. All of them.”

The Royals will counter with an offense that makes more contact than any other, putting the ball in play 74 percent of the time, according to Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated. Yost believes this efficiency gives the Royals a great advantage, per Boland.

“It does, and if you go back at our numbers, we do pretty well against power pitching,” Yost said. “So that definitely helps.”

The Mets are averaging 6.1 runs per game in the playoffs and have done so against star pitchers such as Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester and Jake Arrietawell above the pedigree of Volquez, who is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA and coming off a 7-1 defeat in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series.

Experience could also be an early factor, as Curtis Granderson and Juan Uribe (who’s nursing a chest injury) are the only Mets with World Series experience, according to George A. King III of the New York Post

The Royals will be the first team the Mets have faced in the postseason with successful October experience. Kansas City has won four of its last five playoff series, dating back to last year.

The Royals will be playing with an unfinished-business bravado after last year’s heartbreaking loss to the San Francisco Giants, per Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star.

“Maybe it’s true that even beating the Mets wouldn’t make that singular anguish vanish,” he wrote. “But the inverse might be true, too: The Royals wouldn’t be back here without the infusion of experience and motivation they derived from the way last season ended.”

The Mets will compete, but settling in may come at the expense of an early road loss at the hostile Kauffman Stadium.

Prediction: Royals win 5-4.

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World Series Betting Odds: Mets and Royals Meet in Game 1 on Tuesday

One of the most evenly matched World Series in recent memory will open at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City on Tuesday when the Royals host the New York Mets in Game 1, which is listed as a pick’em at most sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

According to oddsmakers, the series itself is also a toss-up, making the first two games important to see which team grabs the early momentum in the best-of-seven championship series.

New York will send Matt Harvey (13-8, 2.71 ERA) to the mound in the opener, as he looks to stay perfect in the playoffs after beating the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs in his first two postseason starts.

Kansas City’s Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA), who has gone 1-2 in his three playoff starts this year with a 4.32 ERA, will oppose Harvey.

Volquez was brilliant in the lone win he earned at home against the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series, allowing only two hits in six scoreless innings with four walks and five strikeouts en route to a 5-0 victory.

The Mets have won five straight games heading into the World Series following a sweep of the Cubs in the National League Championship Series. They are 7-2 in the postseason overall, and it is worth noting that six of the last seven teams that swept their LCS opponents, including the past four, lost in the World Series.

The layoff between games could be a factor, as Game 4 of the NLCS was last Wednesday. The under is 4-1-1 in New York’s last six for totals bettors, according to the Odds Shark MLB database, and second baseman Daniel Murphy has hit seven home runs in the playoffs, including one in a record six consecutive games.

The Royals lost two games in each of their previous playoff series, topping the Blue Jays in six games in the ALCS and the Houston Astros in five games before that. They won the last two games against the Astros after trailing the AL Division Series 2-1, and they won the first two versus the Blue Jays before dropping two of three in Toronto.

Kansas City rebounded to take the ALCS in Game 6 with a 4-3 win at home last Friday, as the under cashed for the second straight time following a 5-1 run for the over at the sportsbooks.

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World Series 2015: Bold Predictions for Mets vs. Royals Showdown

One thing we’ve learned throughout these 2015 MLB playoffs—and in virtually any postseason—is that the unlikely is bound to happen. The 2015 World Series promises to be no different.

Back on Opening Day, few could have predicted the Kansas City Royals doubling down on their American League pennant and breaking into the World Series for the second straight year. The same could be said of the New York Mets, who were on the upward trajectory but hardly championship contenders entering the season.

Simply picking these two to battle for the Commissioner’s Trophy at the beginning of the year would have been a bold prediction. So, let’s make some more bold predictions for what may unfold over the coming days.

 

Bold Predictions

Jacob deGrom Will Struggle Early

Simply put, Jacob deGrom hasn’t looked like a pitcher who’s in his first postseason so far in October. In fact, he’s pitched his way past some of the most seasoned arms in baseball, as his rotation has risen above the likes of Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw in the opening two rounds.

He’s doing things that we’ve rarely seen in the postseason, as ESPN Stats & Info observed:

But keeping it going into the biggest series of them all is not just difficult, it’s nearly impossible. Plus, a closer look into his recent outings suggests he’s perhaps not as dominant as seen by the naked eye.

The 27-year-old has picked up three wins in three starts, but there’s reason to believe he may be struggling with his command and fatigue, as ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin reported:

Although deGrom is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in the postseason, he had to labor through his past two outings. His pitch counts quickly rose and he had erratic fastball command. Collins believes deGrom may be suffering from fatigue and could use extra time between starts, even if it is only one additional day beyond Game 1.

What’s more, his three playoff wins have come against lineups that were struggling mightily to get the ball in play. The same can’t be suggested of the Kansas City Royals, who are masters at getting ahead in the pitch count and making the opposing arms work tirelessly to get outs.

Matt Harvey gets the start in Game 1, which means come Wednesday’s Game 2, it will have been well over a week since deGrom has stepped on the mound. Getting out of your rotation can be tough for top-end pitchers, and deGrom will find that out early on as he loses his first World Series decision.

 

Daniel Murphy Won’t Homer in Games 1 and 2

I know, I know. Crazy, right?

This is easily the boldest prediction of them all, simply based on what the once-under-the-radar utility man has done throughout this October. His six straight postseason games with a home run broke a major league record, which is pretty astounding considering his career up to this point.

CBS Sports quipped that he hasn’t homered in several days, only because the Mets haven’t been playing:

Murphy is hitting the ball as well as anyone ever has in the postseason, knocking in easy singles when the long ball isn’t there and carrying the Mets offense. Don’t think the Royals aren’t keying in on that, and will be prepared to do everything they can to keep Murphy from getting pitches to hit.

It honestly wouldn’t be surprising to see Kansas City intentionally walk Murphy every time it gets the chance, and that will leave him with many less opportunities to go yard in Kauffman Stadium.

 

An Elite Closer Will Blow a Save

Many of the best relievers and closers of all time have pitched in the World Series, but it’s hard to go back in history and find two in the same championship series that are dealing like this.

Jeurys Familia has been virtually unhittable for the Mets, but Wade Davis has been just as dominant on the mound late in games for the Royals. Neither pitcher has given up much of anything to opposing lineups in this postseason, as Phil Rogers of MLB.com noted:

Both have shown the ability to rise to the occasion in pressure moments throughout this postseason, and Davis showed the same this time last year. But all good things must come to an end, and this is one of them.

There aren’t any stats that suggest either pitcher is due for a blown save—they’ve both been that fantastic. But with stout starting pitching on both sides, we’re bound to be in for a number of tight contests down the stretch.

All it will take is conceding one run to blow a save for either of these closers, and I’m betting on that to happen.

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World Series 2015 Schedule: Dates, Game Times, TV Guide for Mets vs. Royals

With the way this postseason unfolded, you almost knew a long-suffering organization would end up on top at the culmination of the 2015 World Series.

That’s guaranteed to be the case over the next several days, no matter who comes out on top between the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. A club that hasn’t hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy in 29 years (New York) or 30 years (Kansas City) will do just that in early November to cap off a magical playoff run.

If that doesn’t get your heart pounding for the World Series, I don’t know what will. Take a look below for more information.

 

2015 World Series Schedule

 

World Series Preview

The Mets and the Chicago Cubs were both expected to make strides in the National League this season, but seeing them play for a spot in the World Series had even the most optimistic fans of both franchises pinching themselves.

But as it turned out, the NLCS wasn’t even competitive. While the Cubs struggled to find their footing, New York strolled its way through the Windy City, sweeping a four-game series with a more than three-run average margin of victory.

It’s no secret that the Mets’ standout pitching has led the way to the club’s first World Series appearance since 2000, when they came up short against the Yankees in the Subway Series. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard have been dealing fire throughout the playoffs, and Stephen Matz joins them in the World Series rotation, per the Mets:

New York will start out on the mound in Game 1 with Matt Harvey, who has won both of his starts so far in the postseason. Having not pitched since a 7.2-inning performance on October 17, he’ll be fresh and ready to go.

While the pitching has been there all season for the Mets, they’re getting incredible production from bats that had been inconsistent throughout the season. It’s mainly attributed to a balanced lineup, but the sudden outburst of Daniel Murphy has put them over the top.

Take a look at how well Murphy is raking against outside pitches, as he’s in the midst of a six-game postseason streak with home runs that broke an MLB record, per Mark Simon of ESPN:

Of course, the Royals aren’t to be outdone by the Mets’ suddenly reliable bats. Kansas City is in the middle of a scoring explosion as well, putting up 38 runs in its six-game series win over Toronto in the ALCS.

A scary Mets rotation might strike fear in Kansas City fans, but they should rest easy after seeing what the Royals were able to do to Blue Jays ace David Price in Game 6 despite a great performance from him, per Lee Judge of the Kansas City Star:

The Royals were not going to wait around; they’d go after the first good pitch they saw. The Royals wanted to get Price early in the count, before he got to those two-strike chase pitches.

They didn’t exactly kill him with that strategy — Price only gave up five hits total — but as far as the Royals were concerned, the strategy worked. Price was under 90 pitches after six innings, but gave up three earned runs in six and two-thirds and that was enough to put Kansas City in a position to win the game.

Doing that against a pitcher who is 0-7 all time in the postseason is one thing, but getting it done against a trio of red-hot pitchers who don’t seem at all fazed by the playoff spotlight will be another story entirely.

Simply put, the Royals have been getting it done, even when they face the other team’s top pitcher. But what will happen when the other team has three top pitchers?

Well, we should find out soon enough.

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World Series 2015: Pitchers with Most Pivotal Roles in Mets vs. Royals

If pitching truly wins championships, congratulations to the New York Mets on their 2015 World Series title.

The Mets finished the season No. 4 in team ERA (3.45), an edge that carried over into October. Through nine postseason bouts, they sport a 2.81 ERA, accumulating 91 strikeouts through 80 innings.

Despite their bullpen’s best efforts, the Royals have allowed 4.3 runs per playoff game against tough offenses. A flimsy starting staff remains their biggest flaw, entering the World Series with a 5.56 postseason ERA and 4.75 walks per nine innings.

Of course, anything can happen in a best-of-seven series. A Mets rotation with two rookies and two former Tommy John surgery recipients could finally succumb to fatigue while the Royals’ erratic starters keep cleaning up their messes with runners in scoring position. Or maybe the National League champions jump out to early leads before the American League representatives can fully utilize their prolific bullpen.

Keep an eye on these hurlers during the Fall Classic.

 

Mets

Noah Syndergaard, SP

Per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, Mets manager Terry Collins confirmed his World Series rotation:

This order sets up Noah Syndergaard to start at Citi Field, where the 23-year-old rookie has notched a 2.41 ERA through 13 starts. This is hardly a demotion for Thor, as the hard-throwing newcomer would be available to pitch a potential Game 7. 

Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey receive more attention atop New York’s stellar rotation, but Syndergaard may prove the best of the trio down the road. After concluding the season with a 3.24 ERA and 9.96 strikeouts per nine innings, he has amassed 20 punchouts through 13 postseason innings, frequently reaching 100 on the radar gun.

As he told Newsday‘s Marc Carig during their pennant celebration, this group is going to be a force for a while:

The pure power hurler will clash against an aggressive offense that rarely strikes out. Although the Royals have succeeded against high heat, there’s a huge difference between 95 and 100 miles per hour.

 

Tyler Clippard, RP

There’s a security breach in New York’s stellar pitching staff. If the Royals can force the starters out before bridging to closer Jeurys Familia, Mets fans everywhere will leave the series with damaged fingernails. 

Tyler Clippard is a disaster waiting to happen. According to FanGraphs, a 5.30 expected fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 60.6 fly-ball percentage muddy a 2.92 ERA. Since Sept. 1, he has relinquished 13 runs, including five homers, through 18.1 frames.

For New York’s sake, let’s hope he got the regression out of his system during Game 4 of the National League Championship Series. Kris Bryant clobbered a hanging changeup in the eighth inning, but the two-run homer merely lessened the lead to five. As Collins’ preferred setup man to Familia, Clippard usually pitches in more high-leverage situations.

The Mets don’t have a conventional southpaw specialist, but the right-handed Clippard would help against left-handed hitters. Lefties hold a career .179/.265/.307 slash line against the 30-year-old reliever. Those splits could come in handy against Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon.

 

Royals

Johnny Cueto, SP

In two drastically different starts, Johnny Cueto went from allowing two hits in eight innings to eight runs through two innings. The great outing led Kansas City past the Houston Astros, but the debacle cost the team an 11-8 shootout against Toronto. 

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the letdown performance set a dubious record:

When the Royals acquired Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds in July, they hoped to gain an ace to lead their October rotation. He sunk any such confidence before the season ended, registering a 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for his new organization. 

Yost has not set his World Series rotation, but he may prefer Yordano Ventura and/or Edinson Volquez to open the series. Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star wondered if Cueto‘s catastrophe at Rogers Centre will cause the Royals to use him at home in Game 1 or Game 2:

Citi Field is not the same treacherous hitters’ park, but the Mets are no cupcake matchup. If the good, or at least decent, Cueto doesn’t show up, the Royals are in trouble.

 

Kelvin Herrera, RP

Wade Davis’ promotion to closer has derailed his overall worth. If Greg Holland were still around, manager Ned Yost would have certainly used his current stopper more than twice in the American League Championship Series. He also wouldn’t have waited for Ryan Madson to blow a 3-1 lead before reluctantly using Davis (gasps) outside of the ninth inning in Game 6.

Unless Yost alters his bullpen usage, Kelvin Herrera becomes the club’s most vital reliever. Free from the foolish save shackles, the middle reliever has appeared in eight of Kansas City’s 11 playoff bouts. He has shined through them all, allowing seven baserunners with 16 strikeouts through 8.2 innings.

As noted by Beyond the Box Score, he’s the only pitcher generating a higher whiff rate than New York’s power starters this postseason:

His playoff success is a huge relief for the Royals, as he limped out of the season with 10 runs relinquished over his last 14.1 innings. For the second straight year, he’s the guy Yost comfortably turns to in high-leverage spots. Given Kansas City’s tumultuous rotation, Herrera and the bullpen have no margin for error.

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