Kuzul

The dominoes generally don’t start falling on the MLB offseason until the winter meetings roll around, but the rumor mill is already in full swing.

Offseason markets are so intertwined that one signing can often trigger a trickle-down effect and spark a flurry of activity with teams scrambling to lock down plan B after missing out on plan A.

For now, all we have is a spattering of rumors from around the MLB community to hold us over until the hot stove really heats up a month or so from now.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the early clues on where the top 10 free agents could wind up signing.

Begin Slideshow

The MLB Most Valuable Player awards feature two very different races, with one league being much more competitive than the other.

While it seems likely Kris Bryant has run away with voting for the National League award, it was difficult to even narrow the American League options down to three candidates. Of the three remaining, each has a legitimate claim to the prestigious award.

Each league’s winner will be announced on Nov. 17 at 6 p.m. on MLB Network, but here is a breakdown of the two contests with predictions for each award.

National League

Nolan Arenado has a legitimate argument to be a finalist after leading the majors with 133 RBI. He also had 41 home runs and a .294 batting average. However, voters don’t seem to respect the numbers he put up for a team that plays its home games at Coors Field and failed to reach the playoffs.

Of course, it’s hard to discredit Daniel Murphy or Corey Seager, both of whom greatly exceeded expectations in 2016.

Most knew Seager was an elite prospect coming into the season, so his status as the Rookie of the Year favorite is unsurprising. Still, his .308 batting average, 26 home runs and 40 doubles as a middle-of-the-order threat for the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers proved he was truly a star.

As for Murphy, he had shown plenty of ability in his career with the New York Mets, but his first season with the Washington Nationals featured career highs in batting average, home runs, doubles, RBI, OPS and pretty much everything else you could list.

A man with a .288 batting average in his first seven years in the league broke out with a .347 mark that fell just short of the batting title. In most seasons, this would be enough to bring home the MVP award. And yet, neither Murphy nor Seager should be able to match Bryant.

It’s not even that Bryant’s numbers were far and away the best in the league. Last year’s Rookie of the Year led the league with 102 runs to go with his 39 home runs, 102 RBI and a .292 batting average.

Chris Emma of CBS Chicago noted the larger effect of the 24-year-old player:

Bryant was mostly a third baseman, but also spent time at first base and both corner outfield spots in addition to one inning each at center field and shortstop. He did whatever was asked of him for a team that won 103 games and eventually the World Series.

Additionally, Bryant does all the little things to help a team win, from showing great instincts on the basepaths to helping advance runners. The Cubs were the best team in baseball all season long, and this man was the biggest reason why.

Prediction: Kris Bryant

American League

David Ortiz didn’t earn one of the top three spots in his final season despite outstanding numbers, but his Boston Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts has a legitimate chance to take home the award.

Tom Verducci of MLB Network even calls him the favorite:

Betts had a solid 2015 season but truly broke out this year with a .318 batting average, 31 home runs, 26 stolen bases and 113 RBI. 

Additionally, he is the only one of the three finalists to actually make the playoffs as part of the first-place Red Sox. With Ortiz clearly not splitting all that much of the vote, Betts has a serious chance to win this award.

Jose Altuve might have a tougher time despite winning the batting title with a .338 average. It was also the third year in a row he led the league in hits.

Interestingly, the diminutive second baseman doesn’t seem to care about what happens in the voting.

“If I win, it’s going to be great,” Altuve said in October, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. “If not, I’m going to feel proud because I feel like I did what I had to do to help my team. I don’t want to stop here. Like I’ve said before, and I can say it 100 times, I want to keep getting better.”

It’s difficult for Mike Trout to get much better than he has been already in his career, as noted by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times:

Trout is as consistent as they come in the sport, posting a triple slash line of .315/.441/.550 while adding 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Thanks to his ability to fill up the stat sheet and play excellent defense, he easily led the majors in wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference.com.

However, the Los Angeles Angels star has only won one MVP award. He won in 2014, placed second to Josh Donaldson last year and finished behind Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013. The theme for all of these is team success. Trout has only gone to the playoffs in 2014, while Donaldson and Cabrera each participated in the postseason in years they won the award.

With the Angels not even competitive this season, plenty of voters will overlook his numbers and turn once again to a playoff participant. Betts, with similar numbers on the season, helped his team win a division title and will likely bring home the MVP award.

Prediction: Mookie Betts

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

We’ve already seen a handful of trades since the World Series came to an end, most recently a Monday deal that found the Los Angeles Dodgers trading veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for left-handed reliever Vidal Nuno.

Odds are that won’t be the last trade that either of those teams make, as we’ll dig into on the pages that follow. The rumor mill may just be starting to crank up for what could be an offseason full of swaps between clubs, but that doesn’t mean there’s no immediate speculation to dissect.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have actually been discussed.

Begin Slideshow

MLB‘s rightful MVPs don’t always receive the hardware.

The writers voting for the recipients are smarter than ever, though. Those tasked with choosing this year’s most valuable performers appreciate analytics more than they did 10 years ago, when Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard won over the more deserving Grady Sizemore and Albert Pujols, respectively.

Back then, batting average, home runs and RBI towered above all other numbers in significance. Now an intelligent baseball observer knows that plate discipline, gap power, baserunning and defense all matter as well.

Nevertheless, that doesn’t necessarily mean the guy with the best WAR will win. Voters are still suckers for a good narrative, which almost always must involve a playoff bid. As a result, the game’s premier superstar may again pay the price for his peers’ failures.

Let’s take a look at who should and who will win the MVP awards in both leagues.

National League

Who Should Win: Kris Bryant

The National League is nice and easy: Chicago Cubs star Kris Bryant is the clear choice, so let’s not overthink this.

No, this is not getting swept up in Cubs fever. Don’t accuse writers of any such recency bias if he wins, as they submitted their ballots before the postseason. Instead of giving the third baseman bonus points for helping break a 108-year title drought, they’ll award him extra credit for being the NL’s best player on a 103-win squad.

Bryant comfortably led the NL in WAR on both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com. He also scored an NL-best 121 runs while blasting 39 long balls. Having batted .292/.385/.554 with strong defensive contributions, Bryant has no holes in his portfolio.

Two possible competitors stand in his way.

Daniel Murphy wielded a superior .347/.390/.595 slash line for the NL East-winning Washington Nationals, but he was also a subpar defensive second baseman who played 142 games, 13 less than Bryant.

Corey Seager, an NL Rookie of the Year lock, is an interesting choice. The Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop hit .308/.365/.512 with 26 homers and 105 runs scored. For all of the talk about the 6’4″ youngster needing to change positions one day, he waved off that concern with stellar defense at a premium position.

Despite Seager‘s excellent first year, CBSSports.com’s Jonah Keri argued that Bryant played better across the board:

Bryant’s [bat] was just a little better, even after adjusting for the offensive gap between Wrigley Field and Dodger Stadium. Seager helped his team on the basepaths … but Bryant was, by advanced metrics, the third-most valuable baserunner in the entire league, despite swiping a relatively modest eight bases. And while Seager‘s solid defense at short is a major asset, Bryant displaying above-average glovework at third while also playing plus D in left and right field makes him the kind of invaluably versatile player the Cubs crave.

Offensively, the 22-year-old lags behind Bryant, Murphy and a handful of other second-tier candidates on lesser teams (Joey Votto, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt). It’s unfair to penalize him for receiving less run-producing opportunities in the No. 2 slot, but Seager‘s 72 RBI will likely cost him some votes.

There’s no shame in saying a rookie should finish second on the MVP ballot, especially with a second-year stud like Bryant in the top spot.

Who Will Win: Kris Bryant

Bryant offers the best of all worlds. He registered gaudy counting numbers on baseball’s best team while running the bases and fielding well. Every voter will find something to like.

The only possible case to levy against Bryant is this: The Cubs were too good to consider him the most valuable. They won the division by 17.5 games and have another star slugger, Anthony Rizzo, across the diamond, so they conceivably could have still claimed the NL Central with a mediocre third baseman filling Bryant’s shoes.

This is an even bigger reach than punishing a superstar on a subpar team. Bryant was the league’s best player, and he contributed a great deal of value to an amazing club. Why complicate a simple decision?  

Seager doesn’t have enough offensive merits. Murphy’s defense will cost him, although it may have been a different story if he had crushed 36 homers instead of 25.

Had Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw not missed more than two months with a back injury, he would have made things interesting. If he had maintained a 1.69 ERA and 15.64 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 30-plus starts, how could voters not have given him the nod?

Since the Dodgers ace was limited to 21 starts, Bryant will run away with the hardware.

American League

Who Should Win: Mike Trout

Once again, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. If writers didn’t attribute his team’s shortcomings to diminished individual value, the superstar would be in line to win his fifth straight AL MVP trophy.

The 25-year-old has finished every season of his remarkable career first in both FanGraphs‘ and Baseball-Reference.com‘s AL WAR calculations. Even in 2016’s crowded field, he handily led the way on both sites:

By Trout’s standards, it was merely another ordinary season. His .550 slugging percentage represents the worst mark of his career, and defensive metrics no longer support his status as a supreme center fielder.

He did, however, hit .315 with a career-high .441 on-base percentage. Only six other players in MLB reached base at a clip of .400 or higher, and the Angels stud can thank an AL-best 17.0 walk percentage that ranked second in the bigs behind Bryce Harper’s 17.2 percent.

Trout is the best player in baseball. This is not up for debate.

Yet writers are too busy conjuring different meanings of “value” to make their jobs easier. Because of this flawed logic, Trout won his only MVP trophy during the worst season of his career.

In September, teammate Tyler Skaggs discussed the perceived correlation between value and team success with ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick: 

If we’re in first place, this guy is literally on the top of everybody’s MVP charts. Very rarely do you see a guy win the MVP who’s on a last-place team that’s 20 games out in the division. But at the same time, would they be 50 games out in the division if he’s not on the team? There’s something to be said about that.

If the Angels had a deeper lineup and any pitching, Trout would receive the recognition he deserves. But they squandered their superstar’s season with a meandering 74-88 record.

At least there’s no Triple Crown winner, like Miguel Cabrera in 2012, blocking his path, but a handful of candidates will make a case for the award.

Who Will Win: Mookie Betts

If not Trout, who? Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado and David Ortiz will all earn votes. That’s not even mentioning Adrian Beltre, Cabrera and Robinson Cano.

Ortiz has an MLB-best 1.021 OPS and the allure of a feel-good sendoff fueling his candidacy, but serving as a designated hitter stymies his overall worth. Lindor would have had a better case if writers submitted their ballots after the postseason, but his case conversely relies too heavily on defense to win the popular vote.

Donaldson matched Machado‘s 37 homers with an OPS that was 77 percentage points higher. That narrows down the final four to Altuve, Betts, Donaldson and Trout, who already has three runner-up finishes.

This year, Trout could settle for No. 3 or 4.

According to Odds Shark, the 5’6″ Altuve stood tall as the AL MVP favorite to start September. He then closed the season by hitting .276/.328/.371, and the Houston Astros fell short of a playoff berth. 

Even an old-school writer should now comprehend the vast universe beyond batting average, so the second baseman’s AL-best .338 clip won’t overcome a rocky finish.

That could leave Donaldson to edge out Trout for the second straight season. The Toronto Blue Jays third baseman notched a higher OPS this season (.953) than in his award-winning 2015 campaign (.939) while scoring an identical 122 runs.

Some other dips, however, may cost him. His batting average fell from .297 to .284, and his RBI count decayed from 123 to 99. While those stats are overrated, many writers who overrate them still have votes. The more analytically inclined scribes will note a decrease in defensive runs saved from 11 to two.

And then there was one.

Betts had a season fantasy baseball gamers can usually only dream about, batting .318 with 31 home runs, 26 stolen bases, 122 runs and 113 RBI. The Gold Glove finalist also accounted for more DRS (32) than anyone in baseball by a wide margin:

He played a pivotal role in the Boston Red Sox’s first-place finish in the AL East with 93 wins. As long as Ortiz doesn’t take too many votes away, Betts looks like the probable choice.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Billy Goats and Bartman be damned. The curse over Wrigley Field has been lifted, and the Chicago Cubs are the kings of baseball for the first time in more than a century.

While fans continue to pinch each other, making sure this isn’t all some beautiful dream, the Cubs have little time to rest of their laurels. For the MLB offseason is officially underway, and team president Theo Epstein, general manager Jed Hoyer and their staffs have work to do.

It’d be nice to keep the World Series-winning roster intact, but change is inevitable—even for the reigning champs. What follows is an overview of some of the decisions the team will have to make and how the roster might look when Opening Day rolls around roughly five months from now.

Begin Slideshow

As Milli Vanilli once sang, “Blame It On the Rain.”

OK, maybe Rob Pilatus and Fab Morvan never actually sang those words, but the short rain delay heading into the 10th inning of Game 7 in the World Series robbed the Cleveland Indians of the momentum it had picked up thanks to a fabulous eighth-inning rally to tie things up with the Chicago Cubs.

It’s not an excuse, it’s a fact—and it may be the only reason the Cubs, and not the Indians, emerged victorious when play resumed.

While it was a disappointing ending to a terrific season, Cleveland is in terrific shape to make another playoff appearance, and perhaps another deep run, heading into the 2017 season. Of course, the roster won’t be exactly the same as some changes are inevitable.

What follows is an overview of some of the decisions that the team will have to make and how the roster might look when Opening Day rolls around roughly five months from now.

Begin Slideshow

The World Series is over and, as a result, MLB‘s offseason has officially begun.

We’ve already seen a pair of trades go down, with the Cincinnati Reds sending pitcher John Lamb to the Tampa Bay Rays for cash, and Detroit shipping outfielder Cameron Maybin to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for pitching prospect Victor Alcantara.

It’s going to be a hectic offseason to be sure, one that’s filled with as much, if not more trade speculation than free-agent chatter, given the relative dearth of available talent on the open market.

Speaking of free agency, will a team forgo extending a qualifying offer to a four-time All-Star, a move that would assuredly accelerate his departure? Is winning a World Series ring enough to keep a key component of a world championship lineup in place? Has the party come to an end in Cleveland?

We’ll hit on all that and more in this week’s edition of fact or fiction.

Begin Slideshow

The MLB season may be over, but there’s no offseason in an MLB front office, as teams are already hard at work building toward next year.

Early to-do items around the league include deciding whether to exercise player options and whether to extend qualifying offers to eligible free agents.

That often leads to some early activity on the trade market, with teams moving to acquire a player before his option is declined and he’s free to sign anywhere.

Meanwhile, eligible free agents are gearing up for what they hope will be bidding wars for their services on the free-agent market, and teams are already fielding calls regarding potential trade chips.

So at the start of the MLB offseason, let’s take a quick look at some early questions from around the league. 

Begin Slideshow

With the streets of Chicago still in a state of ruin after the Cubs broke a century-long World Series drought, it’s time to do it all over again.

The Cubs will host their first-ever World Series celebration Friday, mayor Rahm Emanuel said in a statement released less than 24 hours after the team’s thrilling Game 7 win over the Cleveland Indians. 

“The city of Chicago could not be more proud of the Cubs, and we are going to throw them—and their fans— a celebration worthy of the history the team made last night,” Emanuel said in a statement. “Twenty-sixteen is the year for the Cubs and the generations of fans who have been waiting to the fly the World Series W. Go Cubs go!”

Michael Arndt of Crain’s Chicago Business provided a look at the parade route:

The parade begins at 12 p.m. ET, but coverage will be ongoing throughout the day. CSN Chicago will begin coverage at 10 a.m. ET, and the website will also be live streaming it. MLB Network will also be providing coverage.   

The Cubs finished the job in an all-time classic Game 7, which nearly saw them add another soul-crushing heartbreak to the ever-growing list. Ahead 5-1 going into the bottom of the fifth and 6-3 in the eighth, a pair of manager Joe Maddon pitching changes nearly altered history forever.

First, Maddon removed starter Kyle Hendricks after 4.2 innings despite stellar work in favor of Jon Lester. Hendricks had given up a weak single with two outs, but Maddon decided it was a better idea to pitch Lester—a bonafide ace who just so happens to have a major case of the yips with runners on base. 

The Indians would score two runs in the inning to make it 5-3, thanks to a pair of ugly plays by the Chicago battery. First, catcher David Ross flung a ball into the stands on a Jason Kipnis infield single. Lester followed that by bouncing a pitch off Ross’ helmet, scoring two runs on the wild throw.

Lester settled down afterward, making Maddon‘s decision to pull him with two outs in the eighth inning in favor of Aroldis Chapman all the more unsettling. Chapman, who rarely threw more than one inning during the regular season, had just thrown 20 pitches a night before in what many thought was an unnecessary situation.

It was obvious from the outset Chapman did not have his best stuff. He gave up an RBI double to Brandon Guyer and then a two-run home run to Rajai Davis to tie things up at 6-6. 

But this Cubs team did not collapse. World Series MVP Ben Zobrist clinched those honors with an RBI double in the top of the 10th inning and Miguel Montero followed him with a single, pushing the Cubs to an 8-7 victory.

“I mean, Chappy, he’s our guy in that moment,” Maddon told reporters. “We narrowed it down to four outs. The Cubs beat up on [Indians relief specialist Andrew] Miller tonight and got to their other guys because the Cubs are good. The Indians beat up on Chapman because the Indians are good. So that’s part of the game.”

Of course, that’s easy to say now after hours of guzzling champagne and preparing for a parade. Had things gone a little differently, Maddon‘s decisions would have gone down as perhaps the worst managerial stretch in MLB history. He would have joined the billy goat, Steve Bartman and the black cat.

Instead, come noon this Friday, it’ll be time for him to celebrate in front of a city that has waited generations for this to happen. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For the first time in 108 years, the city of Chicago will be able to bask in the glow of a World Series celebration with the Cubs when the team holds its victory parade on Friday.

The Cubs capped off their historic season with a dramatic 3-1 series comeback against the Cleveland Indians, highlighted by an 8-7 win in Game 7 that saw them blow a three-run lead in the eighth inning before scoring two runs in the top of the 10th and holding off one more Cleveland rally. 

Parade Predictions

Predicting a parade isn’t nearly as agonizing as a game because no matter the outcome, no one feels like they lost. 

However, it will not be a stretch to say the Cubs’ parade will be the biggest baseball celebration in history.

Using the totally unscientific list of largest peaceful gatherings compiled by Wikipedia (via Paula Schleis of the Akron Beacon Journal), the Boston Red Sox‘s celebratory parade on October 30, 2004, ranks first among sporting-related events with an estimated 3 million people in attendance. 

If you prefer something a little more concrete, the Chicago Tribune reported in 2013 the Chicago Blackhawks’ parade in Grant Park drew approximately 2 million fans. 

As of May 2016, per Greg Hinz of Crain’s Chicago Business, the city’s total population is just over 2.7 million. There will also be spectators from around the area making a journey into the city for this historic moment. 

One thing that does hurt the potential turnout is the quick turnaround from Wednesday’s game to Friday afternoon. Fans who could have been looking to fly in might not be able to make necessary arrangements in time. 

But this is still going to be a huge event with a record number of fans joining in the festivities. 

As for what to expect from the actual celebration, there is nothing likely to surprise anyone. There should be many Cubs legends in attendance, but as far as which person will get the biggest ovation, don’t count on it coming from anyone who wore a uniform. 

It’s not hard to pinpoint when the Cubs’ plan was put into place: October 25, 2011. Things were rapidly unraveling for the franchise as they went from 97 wins in 2008 to 71 in 2011, leading to the firing of general manager Jim Hendry in August 2011. 

After a three-month job search, the Cubs introduced Theo Epstein as their president of baseball operations on that date in October. Here is what he said at his introductory press conference, per ESPN Chicago:

We’re going to build the best baseball operation we can. We’re going to change the culture. Our players are going to change the culture along with us in the major league clubhouse. We’re going to make building a foundation for sustained success a priority. That will lead to playing October baseball more often than not. Once you get in in October there’s a legitimate chance to win the World Series.

Epstein’s model has so far been nothing short of brilliant. His first three first-round draft picks were Albert Almora (2012), Kris Bryant (2013) and Kyle Schwarber (2014). He helped execute trades that brought Jake Arrieta, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Kyle Hendricks to Chicago. 

Jon Lester, who was with the Boston Red Sox when Epstein was general manager, signed with the Cubs before the 2015 season.

No one in Major League Baseball has built an operation with a more consistent level of success on the field and in player development than Epstein. He was the primary architect of three World Series teams in Boston, even though the 2013 title came after he left, and did the same thing in Chicago. 

Players are the ones who have to do the work on the field that everyone recognizes, but Epstein deserves to be the most praised person at the victory parade because of how he completely transformed the way business was being done in Chicago.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com