Tag: Preview/Prediction

ALCS Schedule 2015: Dates, TV Schedule, Early Odds and Picks

For those who switched the channel while Toronto Blue Jays fans were busy littering the field with beer cans and other loose pieces of garbage, they switched back to find one of the craziest single innings in postseason history.

From the controversial decision allowing the Rangers the go-ahead run in the top of the inning to Jose Bautista’s home run and bat flip heard ’round Canada, the inning had everything you could have asked for—unless you’re a fan of Texas, of course.

The Jays emerged from the melee—not literally; despite two bench clearings, there was never a brawl between the teams—victorious and moved on to the American League Championship Series, where they will face the Kansas City Royals, who won a Game 5 of their own against the Houston Astros 7-2.

Thus far, the playoffs have already lived up to expectations and then some, and with the ALCS set between two teams that have long been the underdogs, things can only get better from here.

 

Prediction

Where the first half of the season belonged to the Houston Astros and their surprising transformation from bottom-of-the-barrel National League side to a title contender and one of the best teams in the league, the second half was all about the Toronto Blue Jays.

Acquiring some of baseball’s biggest names at the trade deadline, including pitcher David Price from Detroit and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki from the Colorado Rockies, the Blue Jays not only ended a playoff drought with relative ease but headed into the postseason with the second-best record in the American League behind only the Kansas City Royals.

Pairing baseball’s best shortstop with the likes of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion—who finished first, third and fourth in the AL in RBI, respectively—the Blue Jays created a lineup no batter wanted to face and went on a tear following the All-Star break.

Heading into the playoffs, Toronto was considered one of the favorites to win it all and, despite losing its first two contests, showed off exactly what had made it one of the more entertaining teams in the league with a comeback win—in both the series and Game 5—against the Rangers.

But against Kansas City, last year’s runner-up for the World Series and the team with the best record in the AL, the Jays will by far face their stiffest test this season. How the world has changed with the Royals, now the veteran team facing off against an inexperienced group in Toronto, but an impressive run last season is being looked at as a stepping stone for Kansas City this year.

Taking down the Astros in their division series at home, the Royals put on an offensive showing in the series, averaging five runs per game, including scoring 16 total in the final two, both wins. The pitching was nothing to be scoffed at, either, with trade deadline acquisition Johnny Cueto living up to expectations, giving up two earned runs in eight innings in the decisive game against Houston.

Kansas City’s big bats from last year are back and are the driving force behind a team that was good but not great at both pitching and fielding. Fortunately for the Royals, their opponents also relied heavily on their bats for success, while the defense did enough to help the team secure big wins. Unfortunately for the reigning AL champs, the Blue Jays outclassed them offensively by a wide margin.

Outscoring their closest competitors by 127 runs in the regular season, the Blue Jays were baseball’s best offensive team and haven’t missed a step since the postseason started. Although ranked No. 3 behind the Astros and Cubs in total runs, the Blue Jays are averaging more than five runs per contest and have yet to score less than three in a game.

With emotions riding high after the epic win against the Rangers, Toronto should be able to take the early games from Kansas City and head relatively comfortably into their first World Series appearance since back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993.

Prediction: Blue Jays win series 4-2

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World Series 2015: Updated Predictions Following ALDS

Following a pair of Game 5’s that had their fair share of drama, the American League is down to just two teams while the National League awaits the winner of the Mets-Dodgers series to see who will take on the Chicago Cubs.

With a much greater sense of clarity now after a pair of close series, the Toronto Blue Jays are set to face off against the Kansas City Royals in a matchup between the two best teams in the American League for an elusive spot in the World Series.

On the other side of the bracket the Chicago Cubs dispatched the Cardinals in four games and are now watching to see who will win the hotly contested Mets-Dodgers series, which has its Game 5 Thursday night in Los Angeles at 8:07 p.m. ET.

Whoever comes out on top is that much closer to the game’s ultimate prize, and as the playoffs approach their latter stages, teams’ dreams are starting to come into focus as reality sets in. The World Series sits on the horizon, but first let’s take a look at the updated bracket after the Royals’ and Blue Jays’ ALDS victories.

 

Predictions:

NLDS: Mets vs. Dodgers

In what has been a drama-filled series that everyone has come to expect when teams from Los Angeles and New York face off against each other, the Mets and Dodgers have to do it one more time in Game 5 to decide who gets to take on the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS.

The Mets have been in charge of the series, with the Dodgers doing just enough at the right times—the eighth inning of Game 2 being the perfect example—to hold on and force a Game 5. But having squandered home-field advantage in New York, the Mets will need to dig deep to secure another road victory to claim the series and move on.

The Dodgers look to have the advantage, both home field and on the mound, with Zack Greinke facing off against Jacob deGrom. The latter is young and, while he won the first time around against Los Angeles, it is hard to expect a pitcher to win both of his first two starts in the playoffs.

But there is something about the Mets this postseason, and they have the bats and the emotions following the Chase Utley slide in Game 2 to pull off the shock win in Game 5 and advance to take on the Cubs.

Prediction: Mets 4, Dodgers 1

 

ALCS: Blue Jays vs. Royals

With a slew of recent underdogs making their way into the playoffs on the American League side of things, there was plenty to look forward to in the ALDS series and neither disappointed, both getting pushed to a decisive Game 5.

The Jays escaped a much tougher ALDS series against the Texas Rangers than anyone expected, with the underdogs forcing a Game 5 with the series and a berth in the ALCS on the line. But after three straight wins and one of the wildest single innings in postseason history, the Jays are on to another stiff test in the form of the Kansas City Royals.

Last year’s casual darling, the Royals have capitalized on their recent success with another playoff series win, this time against the upstart Houston Astros. Despite a hard-fought battle from Houston, Kansas City came back from an early 2-0 deficit in Game 5 to secure the victory.

With the top two records in the AL set to face off in the championship series, sparks should be expected to fly, especially with fanbases as passionate as those in Toronto and Kansas City, but the Blue Jays’ bats will be enough to take them to the World Series for the first time since 1993.

Prediction: Blue Jays win series 4-2

 

NLCS: Cubs vs. Mets

For most of the season, the Cubs were thought of as a year away from success on the biggest stage. With so much talent but most of it young, many expected Chicago to push for a playoff appearance but not much else.

But now after dispatching the dynasty that is the St. Louis Cardinals 3-1 in the NLDS and beating out the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Wild Card Game, the future might be now for the Cubs who are looking like the best team in the playoffs.

With the best pitcher in the National League in Jake Arrieta, some of the best hitters in the league in Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber, the Cubs look better than they have in years. There is always a reason to be doubtful when it comes to the Cubs, but things look better than they ever have for the franchise.

You can’t rule out the Mets, who will be riding high after their tight series win against and who were pretty similar to the Cubs statistically during the regular season, but without the Cardinals or the Giants it is anybody’s ballgame, and the safer bet would be the team that has more talent, however small the gap is.

It will be a tough series, but in the end Chicago’s young talent wins out and sends the team to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

Prediction: Cubs win series 4-2

 

World Series: Cubs vs. Blue Jays

The Cubs might have the magic to end their streak of missing out on the World Series since 1945, but in Toronto they face their undoing and won’t be able to get that elusive, curse-breaking title.

Neither team has postseason experience coursing through their veins, but while Chicago has the young talent and drive to get past the Mets, the Blue Jays are flat out the best team in baseball and have been since a string of acquisitions at the trade deadline.

Bringing in players like David Price and Troy Tulowitzki to the already loaded offense the Jays had become known for in recent years was an inspired move that turned the season around for Toronto. The only thing left for them to achieve is a title and end a long streak of their own.

Chicago might be the sentimental favorites of many and has the much brighter future with the crazy amount of youth on its roster, but this season has been all about the Blue Jays and they will claim a much-deserved World Series title.

Prediction: Blue Jays wins series 4-3

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MLB Playoffs 2015: Odds, TV Schedule, Prediction for Final NLDS Game

For the second time during this young postseason, two National League aces will clash in a winner-take-all elimination showdown when the New York Mets face the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night.

Before beginning the division series, Jake Arrieta guided the Chicago Cubs past Gerrit Cole’s Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game. Years could pass before witnessing such a star-studded pitching affair with everything on the line.

Or maybe just eight days. Zack Greinke didn’t garner an attention-grabbing finish on par with Arrieta‘ sizzling second half, but he led MLB with an unconscionable 1.66 ERA. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom notched a 2.54 ERA and recently registered 13 strikeouts and zero unintentional walks to win Game 1.

After outdueling Clayton Kershaw, he’ll need to throw another gem against Los Angeles’ other Cy Young Award candidate to lift New York into the National League Championship Series.

 

Mets vs. Dodgers: Game 5

When: Thursday, Oct. 15 at 8:07 p.m. ET

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California

TV: TBS

Live Stream: Watch TBS

Odds (via Odds Shark): LA -1.5

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

 

Preview

Runs are not going to come easy at Chavez Ravine. Researching the Greinke-deGrom matchup, Sporting News‘ Jesse Spector discovered their combined 4.20 ERA is the lowest ever of two qualified starters in an elimination playoff game.

David Wright, who hasn’t recorded a hit since breaking Game 1 open with a two-run single, discussed the marquee aces once again stealing the show.

“We’ve had big pitching matchups this whole series,” Wright said, per Spector. “I mean, you look at Kershaw-deGrom and then Greinke-(Noah) Syndergaard, and then you go back out there for deGrom-Greinke—if you like pitching matchups, this is the series for you.”

Through four games, both teams have compiled a combined 89 strikeouts. Leading the way with 13, deGrom tied Tom Seaver for the club’s postseason franchise record, per MLB’s Twitter page:

Yet it’s easy to see why Vegas favors the Dodgers. They’ll play a home game with baseball’s ERA leader on the mound, and Greinke has earned a quality start in every Dodger Stadium outing this year. His adversary, on the other hand, showed some vulnerability down the stretch—allowing six runs to the last-place Philadelphia Phillies in August and another six against the Miami Marlins on Sept. 15. 

L.A. getting to deGrom is feasible. Greinke pitching the Dodgers out of fighting distance? Not as much.

While deGrom has a lower floor, his 2.70 fielding independent pitching (FIP) topped Greinke‘s 2.76 tally. Matt Harvey entered 2015 as New York’s top draw, but that’s no longer the case. Mets manager Terry Collins is comfortable with hedging the club’s season on deGrom.

“He’s the guy we want on the mound,” Collins told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. “You kind of feel real confident that he’s pitched well out there and that he’s going to go out and do it again. Once again, this is a time when you need your guys to step up, and you certainly think he’ll do that.”

Kershaw, who put to bed any nonsense about his inability to pitch in the postseason, also gave deGrom credit, per ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin:

Each squad will head into Thursday with the same goal: break into the other team’s bullpen before its closer. Kenley Jansen and Jeurys Familia are two of the game’s most electric relief pitchers, but things get interesting beforehand.

In Game 1, the Dodgers scored a run off Tyler Clippard before Collins turned to Familia for the four-out save. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly took out Kershaw after seven on Tuesday, briefly giving Citi Field a second wind before inserting Jansen into the game for another four-out finish. 

With so much on the line, Collins and Mattingly should consider avoiding the inevitable and using their stars for two innings. Collins, however, could have one more ace up his sleeve in Noah Syndergaard, who will enter Thursday night on four days’ rest. 

Considering the heat he fired throughout Saturday’s start, via ESPN Stats & Info, just imagine how hard Thor could throw in a one-inning relief cameo:

The Dodgers are favored because of the setting and slight pitching edge, but the Mets sport the offensive upper hand. Following the All-Star break—shortly before acquiring Yoenis Cespedes, promoting Michael Conforto and welcoming Travis d’Arnaud back from the disabled list—they posted an NL-best .770 OPS. Conforto will return to the starting lineup against a righty. Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy and the struggling Lucas Duda no longer have to face a like-handed pitcher.

Mattingly, however, must again decide if he can trust the slumping Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson. Worse yet, Yasiel Puig doesn’t look recovered from a hamstring injury yet, going 0-for-6 with three strikeouts this series.

This game is a toss-up too close to predict. Now here’s your prediction. After another strong start from deGrom, Syndergaard and Familia close the door on a tight lead, creating a NLCS matchup of historic hard-luck losers with the Chicago Cubs.

Prediction: Mets 3, Dodgers 2 

 

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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2015 ALCS Will Be a Battle of the Powerful Blue Jays vs. the Powerhouse Royals

In the American League, the board for the championship series is set. On one side is the Toronto Blue Jays. On the other, the Kansas City Royals. At stake: a trip to the World Series.

Prediction: Pain.

At least for one side. Exactly which side will be feeling it depends on what decides this series: the Blue Jays’ unparalleled power, or the special combination of a little bit of everything that has turned the Royals into a powerhouse.

But first, let’s catch everyone up on how we got here.

The matchup for the ALCS was set Wednesday, when the Blue Jays and Royals won the fifth and deciding games of their respective division series matchups. The Blue Jays rode Jose Bautista’s clutch three-run homer to a 6-3 victory over the Texas Rangers, and the Royals rode Johnny Cueto’s eight outstanding innings to a 7-2 victory over the Houston Astros.

So here we are looking at a rematch 30 years in the making. After the Blue Jays and Royals met in a seven-game ALCS back in 1985, they’re ready to do battle again, starting with Game 1 at Kauffman Stadium Friday.

And given the circumstances, we should be in for another good one.

Though the Rangers and Astros each made a run at revising the big picture, a matchup between the Blue Jays and Royals in the ALCS seems meant to be. It is to be a meeting of the AL’s two best teams from 2015. The Royals topped everyone at 95-67, and the Blue Jays finished just behind them at 93-69.

There was thus only a small difference between these two teams in the regular season. And as Baseball Tonight noted, that’s partially owed to how the Blue Jays played against the Royals:

For the Blue Jays, the big blow came when they won three games in a four-game series at Rogers Centre in late July and early August. That was at the beginning of an epic hot streak that saw them win 43 of their final 61 games.

Even still, that series alone isn’t enough for anyone to forecast certain doom for the Royals in the ALCS. For that matter, even the entire season series doesn’t offer any clear direction. The Blue Jays may have outplayed the the defending AL champs, but they didn’t exactly crush them.

It’s also hard to say whether either team has a definitive edge in the starting pitching matchups.

Regarding those, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals have already settled on veteran right-hander Edinson Volquez as their Game 1 starter. Assuming the Blue Jays are comfortable starting ace left-hander David Price four days after his 50-pitch relief appearance in Game 4 of the ALDS, the pitching matchups for the ALCS should look like this:

Certainly, it’s easy to like the idea of Price being matched up against Volquez in Games 1 and 5. It’s also easy to like R.A. Dickey over Kris Medlen, who has yet to pitch in this postseason, in Game 4.

But otherwise, tossups abound.

Marco Estrada and Yordano Ventura are a good match for one another in Games 2 and 6. And while one would have favored Marcus Stroman over Cueto in light of the latter’s struggles in his first 14 starts as a Royal, his brilliance in Wednesday’s series-clinching victory definitely turned the tables.

“He was unbelievably good,” said Royals manager Ned Yost, per MLB.com. “He didn’t make a bad pitch all night.”

Indeed. Instead of the guy who posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular-season starts for the Royals, Cueto looked more like the guy who made sub-3.00 ERAs a habit as a Cincinnati Red. He’ll match up well against the talented Mr. Stroman, who has been money since returning from a torn ACL in September.

With neither team able to rest on a favorable track record or look forward to a string of favorable pitching matchups, it looks like the ALCS will be decided by something else.

Such as—and please try to contain your surprise here—how these two teams play ball.

It’s cliche to note when postseason foes have contrasting styles, but here goes anyway: The Blue Jays and Royals have contrasting styles. Boom. There.

The Blue Jays are defined by what Emperor Palpatine would call “UNLIMITED POWER.” This is true of their pitching staff, as Toronto’s rotation is anchored by power arms belonging to Price and Stroman, and its bullpen is anchored by the power arms of Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna.

Where the power mainly resides, though, is in their offense.

You might have noticed as much while the Blue Jays were busy leading all of baseball with 232 home runs in the regular season. If not, you surely noticed that power hitting is the main reason they were able to come back from their 0-2 deficit against the Rangers in the ALDS. 

Much of this power stems from the three guys in the heart of Toronto’s order: Josh Donaldson, Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They combined to hit 120 home runs in the regular season, and five of Toronto’s eight home runs in the ALDS. As Joe Posnanski noted at NBC Sports, it is actually possible to view them as perhaps the best trio of sluggers in MLB history.

If the Blue Jays are going to win this series, it’ll be because of their power. It’s what turned them into a juggernaut down the stretch in the regular season. It’s what allowed them to come back against the Rangers in the ALDS. If they have their way, it’ll be what leads them over the Royals in the ALCS and puts them back in the World Series for the first time in over two decades.

The Royals, on the other hand, are a horse of a different color. Well, still mainly blue, but…well, you know.

The Royals are similar to the Blue Jays in that their pitching staff revolves around key power arms, namely Cueto and Ventura in the rotation and Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis in the bullpen. But that’s where the similarities end.

Particularly on offense. Where Toronto’s offense is all about power, Kansas City’s offense is all about balance. Royals hitters make life tough for opposing pitchers by grinding out at-bats, avoiding strikeouts better than any other team’s hitters. They can also put pressure on teams with their speed, as the only AL team with more stolen bases in 2015 was the Astros. They also have some power this year, as last year’s .376 slugging percentage ballooned to .412 in 2015. 

Then there’s what the Royals can do on defense. It is indeed noteworthy that, per Baseball Prospectus, the Blue Jays were baseball’s most efficient defensive team in 2015. But according to UZR and DRS, the Royals were far and away the AL’s best defensive team. Like last year, the eye test concurs. 

The question, of course, is whether these strengths can overwhelm Toronto’s power and send the Royals to their second straight World Series.

Granted, the Royals’ home-field advantage could actually answer this question. They’re looking at the possibility of playing four of seven games at Kauffman Stadium, which would mean four games out of seven at a ballpark that, per ESPN.com, suppresses power like few others. Advantage, Royals?

Eh, maybe not. Mike Axisa of CBS Sports is right to think the Blue Jays are “built to score runs and they can do it anywhere.” Besides which, Rogers Centre is arguably more power-friendly than Kauffman Stadium is power-not-friendly. Their home-field advantage may actually count for more.

As such, the Royals are going to have to shut down Toronto’s power the old-fashioned way: with good pitching. 

As we discussed last week, the best way to do that is to shut down Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion specifically. To that end, a steady diet of low-and-away pitches is Kansas City’s best hope. And therein lies a problem: Of all the teams in MLB, no team pounded right-handed batters (like those three) low and away less frequently than the Royals.

But that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. The Rangers weren’t particularly good at pounding righties low and away either, and they managed to largely silence Toronto’s vaunted trio in the first two games of the ALDS. That’s part of the reason they were able to put the Blue Jays in an 0-2 hole.

More so than that, the Rangers put the Blue Jays in a hole because they simply outplayed them in virtually all phases of the game. And if the Rangers can do that, the Royals can certainly do that. No team is built to play well-rounded baseball like they are.

So, that’s how the Royals are going to beat the Blue Jays. They must suppress Toronto’s power as best they can and force the Blue Jays into playing a well-rounded game. In a contest like that, the Royals will have the upper hand.

Who wins, you ask?

Well, yours truly is obligated to pick the Blue Jays. He picked them to beat the Royals in the ALCS at the outset of these playoffs. To flip-flop now would be the opposite of cool.

But hey, you’re free to choose your own adventure. And with a series like this one, there’s no obviously right path to take. For as much as we can break down the players at the table, there are only two simple things we know for sure.

That the board is set, and that the pieces will soon be moving.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Predicting All 30 MLB Teams’ Top-Priority Targets This Offseason

The postseason is still in full swing, but it’s never too early to turn our attention to the offseason ahead.

This year’s free-agent class is headlined by a foursome of starting pitchers, David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto, and there is plenty of starting pitching depth behind them.

On the offensive side of things, outfielders Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon headline a position player class that also includes Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler and Daniel Murphy.

With some teams looking to spend big and others simply looking to retool, all 30 teams have a different plan heading into the offseason.

What follows is a look at the one player who could be each team’s top priority target this coming offseason, whether it is a player being re-signed, a free agent being brought in or a trade target being acquired.

Begin Slideshow


MLB Rumors: Examining Early Trade Chatter Surrounding Top Pitchers

For fans of a select few MLB squads, playoff baseball represents the most exciting time of the year. Supporters of eliminated teams, however, must helplessly watch others live and die on every heart-pounding pitch as their minds wander to the offseason.

Nobody can complete any trades during the postseason, but everyone out of the action is already assembling an offseason plan. While 2015’s wounds still sting, general managers will reflect on their misfires and identify holes in need of remedies.

On the heels of losing campaigns, both Ohio franchises are already looking to parlay power pitchers into help across the board. The playoffs are far from over, but let’s take a brief reprieve from the games with a look at two early rumors. 

 

Indians Saying “So Long” to Danny Salazar?

Many analysts predicted the Cleveland Indians to represent the American League Central in October. Instead, they needed a late surge and a postponed game never made up to squeak over .500 at 81-80. 

Cleveland’s pitching didn’t lead it into the postseason as anticipated, but the unit collectively led the American League with a 23.8 strikeout percentage, while its starting staff sported an AL-best 3.73 fielding independent pitching (FIP). 

Although anyone looking solely at ERA won’t think so, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar give the Indians one of baseball’s finest rotation trios. Each of them struck out over a batter per inning, and while Salazar led the group in ERA, the other two amassed FIPs below 3.00. 

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Indians are looking to break up this trio to ascertain offense, as Salazar is the likely odd man out.

“There’s no question the Indians are going to deal a starting pitcher for a hitter this offseason,” Cafardo wrote. “As the year went on the Indians seemed more content to deal Salazar than Carlos Carrasco, who they made available at the trading deadline. Word is they’ll continue that way this offseason.”

This comes days after Salazar expressed his excitement for another year in Cleveland:

Either hurler should fetch a considerable haul on the open market. Salazar, 25, has another season under team control before hitting the first of three arbitration years. The 28-year-old Carrasco is signed to a team-friendly deal. According to Cot’s Contracts, he’ll earn $19 million over the next three seasons with club options for $9 million in 2019 and $9.5 million in 2020. 

Teams don’t typically try to trade young, affordable stars, especially not starting pitchers with Cy Young upside. While the offense has room for improvement, it’s certainly not hopeless. With help from rookie sensation Francisco Lindor, Cleveland finished No. 12 with a .315 weighted on-base average (wOBA). 

Most teams would kill for its young, cheap nucleus of Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Lindor, Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis. Unless someone offers a young, affordable slugger, the Indians should instead build around those guys with a mid-level free-agent bat or two. 

 

Reds Ready to Deal Aroldis Chapman

While the Cincinnati Reds didn’t harbor postseason aspirations, they weren’t supposed to be this bad. At 64-98, they finished one game shy of the Philadelphia Phillies for the No. 1 overall amateur draft pick. 

They cleared house before the trade deadline, moving starters Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. They were willing to gut the rotation and use five rookies over the last two months, but they didn’t jettison flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman.

According to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, that will likely change this winter. “Chapman will probably bring a package of prospects,” Fay wrote. “The Reds have to do that. I think they will. In fact, an insider told me they will ‘probably’ trade Chapman.”

Chapman, who concluded 2015 with a 1.63 ERA and 15.74 strikeouts per nine innings, is a major weapon out of the bullpen. An Associated Press report credited him with throwing the season’s 62 fastest pitches, no surprise from someone who scorched an average fastball velocity of 99.5 mph.  

Yet the Reds need starting pitching. Some younger hitters wouldn’t hurt, either. They’re a rebuilding franchise in need of young talent, so a dominant reliever is simply a luxury they can’t afford.

The Atlanta Braves arrived at this realization earlier this year, shipping Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres right before Opening Day. Along with receiving a solid starting center fielder in Cameron Maybin, they netted top pitching prospect Matt Wisler from the exchange. 

Fay also noted that the ship has sailed on converting the 27-year-old southpaw into a starter.

If the Reds had stuck to the plan to make Chapman a starter, they may be looking at a different set of circumstances right now. If Chapman had developed into an ace – a big if given his temperament and bouts with command problems – the Reds might not be rebuilding right now.

But that ship sailed a long time ago. Chapman is a hard guy to read, given the language barrier. But when my old boss, Angel Rodriguez, interviewed Chapman in Spanish at Redsfest in 2013, Chapman made it clear – very clear – that he didn’t want to deal with the talk about starting anymore.

Even as a reliever, Chapman will gross some substantial assets, preferably of the prospect variety. While the Reds will lose their most popular attraction, they’ll gain pieces necessary to reconstruct the fleeting organization.

 

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

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MLB Playoffs 2015: Odds, TV Schedule, Predictions for Final ALDS Games

If you wanted drama in the MLB playoffs, you got it.

Wednesday will feature two winner-take-all battles with both American League Division Series going to Game 5. The four teams all took different paths to get to this point, but now they know any pitch could be the difference between going to the American League Championship Series and going home.

Look for all hands to be on deck, as every player and coach will do whatever it takes to extend the season just a little longer.

Both games will likely feature plenty of excitement from start to finish, so here is a guide to ensure you don’t miss a second of the action.

 

Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays

When: Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 4:07 p.m. ET

Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario

TV: Fox Sports 1

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Odds (via Odds Shark): Toronto 20-21, Texas 4-5

 

The Texas Rangers have to feel good about getting ace Cole Hamels back on the mound for Game 5, but he won’t have an easy time facing a rejuvenated Toronto Blue Jays offense.

Although the top offense in the majors during the regular season went quiet in the first couple of games of this series, Toronto’s bats have awoken. A Troy Tulowitzki three-run home run helped the Blue Jays pull away in Game 3, while seven runs scored in the first three innings effectively sealed the fate of Game 4.

Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer joked about what was on display:

Even though Hamels had a solid effort in Game 2 with only two earned runs allowed (four runs total) in seven innings, the Blue Jays offense playing to its ability is much scarier. The right-handed-heavy lineup especially crushed lefties with an .818 OPS to lead all of baseball.

The veteran pitcher could struggle to contain Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and others one after another.

This could take the pressure off Marcus Stroman, who pitched well in his postseason debut once he got settled in. He finished with three earned runs allowed (four total) in seven innings, although he did have a stretch of 14 straight retired hitters during the middle innings.

If he can put up anywhere near a similar performance, Toronto should be in good shape to win the deciding game at home.

Prediction: Blue Jays 7, Rangers 3

 

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

When: Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 8:07 p.m. ET

Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

TV: Fox Sports 1

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Odds (via Odds Shark): Kansas City 3-2, Houston 5-9

 

The Houston Astros were ready to celebrate their ALDS title after going up 2-1 in the series and 6-2 in the seventh inning of Game 4. Carlos Correa was having a breakout game, while Colby Rasmus remained impossible to slow down, and the last couple of innings were just a formality.

Well, that was until the Kansas City Royals did what the Kansas City Royals do. Last year’s pennant winners found some magic once again and scored five runs in the eighth inning to take the lead. Eric Hosmer added to the lead with a two-run home run in the ninth, and Wade Davis did the rest with a two-inning save.

Hosmer discussed the mindset for the Royals after the game:

Manager Ned Yost also noted the resolve of the squad after being so close to elimination:

The Royals have showcased an energy and confidence that cannot be beaten even with their backs against the wall. They have also swung the momentum heavily in their favor, and they believe they can get that final win at home.

As long as Johnny Cueto pitches more like he did in the second half of Game 2 rather than the first (four runs allowed in first three innings, no runs in last three innings).

Meanwhile, it will be extremely difficult for the Astros to bounce back from the latest loss. The young squad was close to moving on to the next round but saw its bullpen implode and cost the team the game. The team will now have to travel to Kansas City and regain its positive energy, which is not an easy task.

Collin McHugh, who had a 4.05 road ERA this season, will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders as Houston’s starter. Even if he posts good numbers, however, the Royals know they can come from behind late. The mindset is all that matters in this decisive game.

Prediction: Royals 6, Astros 4

 

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Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals

After losing the National League Division Series to the Chicago Cubs in four games, it’d be easy to call for sweeping change in St. Louis this winter.

But once emotions calm and sanity creeps back in, we’ll remember that the Cardinals were baseball’s most successful team during the regular season—and that a large part of that roster will be back in 2016.

Lest we forget that the series may have gone in a completely different direction had Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright been able to pitch in the rotation…or if Yadier Molina was able to grip a bat…or if Matt Adams was healthy enough to play first base.

That’s not an excuse as much as it’s a fact, and while changes are certainly coming to Busch Stadium, the fact is that they’ll be on a far smaller scale than some would like.

What follows is a look at the decisions the team is going to have to make when it comes to the roster—and some reinforcements that could be welcomed.

Begin Slideshow


Cardinals vs. Cubs: Keys to Chicago Putting Away St. Louis in Game 4

The Chicago Cubs look to take care of business and eliminate the rival St. Louis Cardinals from the postseason behind starter Jason Hammel in front of the home crowd at Wrigley Field during Game 4 of the National League Division Series at 4:30 p.m. ET Tuesday. Toeing the rubber opposite Hammel is John Lackey, who shut down the Cubs during Game 1 but is pitching on three days’ rest. Chicago leads the series 2-1.

One of the biggest keys for the Cubs will be their ability to get to Lackey early in the game. If they allow the big righty to settle in like he did in Game 1, when he pitched 7.1 innings of two-hit, no-run ball, they could be facing a tied series and a trip back to Busch Stadium.

How can the North Siders avoid that? Well, by riding the momentum gained from Game 3 and keeping their power surge going.

After setting a major league record for most home runs in a postseason game with six, the hot Cubs hitters have to stay aggressive versus Lackey.

Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta, who started Game 3, said that the power display was a big turning point, per ESPN.com’s Jon Greenberg.

“Seeing the ball fly out of the yard as many times as it did was just incredible,” Arrieta said. “The atmosphere, the fans were kind of thriving off that. It’s nice for our offense to be able to do that, get some confidence going into [Game 4].”

Jorge Soler, who was noticeably missing from the lineup in Game 1, has been an impact player for the Cubs this series and could prove to be a handful for Lackey.

Soler set a record as well in Game 3, as he became the first player to reach base safely in his first nine postseason plate appearances. He is 4-for-4 with two home runs, four RBI and five walks. His two-run home run in the bottom of the sixth inning of Game 3 put the Cubs up 7-4 and relieved some of the pressure on the bullpen.

Hammel will pitch for the first time this postseason and will have to stay composed as he faces a group of Cardinals hitters who have fought hard all series.

After playing them 19 times during the regular season, the Cubs know a thing or two about the Cardinals’ resiliency. Speaking to the MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, Cubs catcher Miguel Montero said his team needs a repeat performance versus the Redbirds: 

These guys always come back and they keep grinding every at-bat. That’s the reason they won 100 games. They’re professional players out there, professional hitters and they make things happen. You can’t get enough runs against this team. We have to come back [Tuesday] with the same approach and go after it.

The top of the Cardinals lineup, especially rookie Stephen Piscotty and veteran Jason Heyward, who both homered Monday night, has given Cubs pitchers some problems so far. The duo is leading the Cardinals offense, hitting .417 and .333, respectively.

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny referenced the character of his club in a quote tweeted by the Cardinals earlier Tuesday: 

Similar to Monday night when the wind was blowing out to right field, weather should be a factor again in Game 4. The forecast calls for a game-time temperature of roughly 60 degrees, with chillier weather developing later. During Tuesday’s press conference, Cubs manager Joe Maddon told reporters the conditions favor the pitchers:

If Hammel can figure out how to cool off the bats of Piscotty and Heyward, the Cubs could find themselves in a good position to clinch their first playoff series since 2003.

Hammel’s start is even more important given that the Cubs have gone to the bullpen a lot so far this series, especially in Game 3. As MLB.com’s Phil Rogers pointed out, a major question mark for the Cubs will be the depth of their bullpen. After Clayton Richard, Trevor Cahill, Travis Wood, Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon all saw action Monday night, will the group as a whole be dependable if Hammel struggles? Other arms may have to help shut down the Cardinals’ deep lineup. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Playoffs 2015: Live Stream Schedule, Bracket Predictions for Tuesday’s NLDS

Everything from late-game heroics to surprise outcomes to controversy has come about in six combined games of the National League Divisional Series, leaving no shortage of storylines for Tuesday’s slate.

The two apparent underdogs are each one victory away from the NLCS, as the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets have both jumped out to a 2-1 lead on their respective opponents. The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals are now tasked with winning a must-win game on the road in order to push it to the decisive Game 5.

The action starts in the mid-afternoon and stretches into the late night on Tuesday, so take a look below at everything to know.

 

Tuesday’s NLDS Schedule

Live streaming available on TBS.com.

 

Game 4: Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

With the Mets-Dodgers series turning toward Citi Field for Game 3 on the heels of Chase Utley’s suspension and subsequent appeal that allows him to remain eligible to play—though he wasn’t in Monday’s lineup—until the appeal hearing (go figure), one could have expected a raucous environment in which the Mets would come out aggressive and guns blazing.

That’s exactly what they did. New York’s bats absolutely caught fire in a 13-7 win over L.A. in Game 3, pushing the team one victory away from the NLCS. And had it not allowed a late Dodgers comeback in Game 2, New York would already be there.

Mets batters are raking so far in the postseason, especially the lefties, as Mark Simon of ESPN noted:

That trend from the Mets lefties plays perfectly into Tuesday’s game, as they face Clayton Kershaw after his Game 1 defeat. All four hits Kershaw let up in the series opener were to left-handers, one of which was the go-ahead home run by Daniel Murphy.

Kershaw himself admitted “I felt a little more comfortable against the righties” after that game, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. That may be an understatement. 

While the Dodgers pitchers are getting carved up, the same can’t be said for the Mets, as John Buccigross of ESPN observed:

Just like in 2014, the Dodgers’ biggest strength—stout pitching—appears to be abandoning them with the season on the line. They’re facing another opportunistic lineup that takes advantage of the slightest mistake.

The X-factor all along to the Mets’ success has been the bats, and they’ve awoken when it matters most. Another big day from them will put the Big Apple in a frenzy and clinch their spot in the NLCS.

Prediction: Mets 7, Dodgers 5

 

Game 4: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

It’s almost surreal—OK, it is surreal—for any baseball fan younger than 100 years of age that two long-struggling organizations are making a magical surge to the NLCS at the same time.

Joining the Mets in that regard are the Chicago Cubs, a team that is at least a year or two ahead of schedule in competing at the top of the NL. An immensely young lineup is playing up to every bit of its potential.

That was on display in Game 3, as the Cubs got an uncharacteristic outing from ace Jake Arrieta and still won comfortably. The win came by way of six huge home runs, all of which the Cubs crammed into one tweet:

Chicago’s more than century-long World Series drought is mentioned often, and the team’s playoff success is certainly long overdue, but the Cubs are embarking on even more history entering Game 4. They can clinch a playoff series for the first time ever at Wrigley Field, as ESPN’s Kevin Negandhi observed:

The Cubs just seem to have the magic on their side this postseason, but they’re also going up against a club that’s no stranger to channeling that special extra gear. Practically all of the Cardinals’ deep postseason runs in recent history have come in clutch situations when it was easy to count them out.

Faced with a similar position Tuesday night, it’s hard to see the Cardinals quivering and laying down to their longtime NL Central rivals. This series has five games written all over it, and St. Louis will afford itself the opportunity to return to Busch Stadium.

Prediction: Cardinals 4, Cubs 2

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