Tag: Prospect Pipeline

September Call-Up Odds for MLB’s Top 25 Prospects, 3 Weeks Out

While there already has been a large influx of prospects promoted to the major leagues this season, there are even more set to arrive when active rosters expand from 25 to 40 players on September 1.

Last year’s wave of September call-ups marked the arrival of some of baseball’s top rookies, including Billy Hamilton, Yordano Ventura, Nick Castellanos and Jonathan Schoop.

It’s still hard to say which prospects, if any, will be promoted to The Show this September, but there’s certainly no shortage of intriguing candidates, with Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor, Noah Syndergaard, Joc Pederson and Alex Meyer all in the mix.

So, with three weeks remaining until rosters expand, here are the latest call-up odds for baseball’s top 25 prospects, as determined by Prospect Pipeline’s midseason rankings.

 

Omitted due to injury: SS Carlos Correa (No. 2), 3B Miguel Sano (11), RHP Hunter Harvey (22), RHP Jameson Taillon (25), RHP Kohl Stewart (31) and RHP Kyle Zimmer (33).

Already in MLB: 2B/SS Javier Baez (No. 6), IF/OF Arismendy Alcantara (23) and RHP Aaron Sanchez (32).

 

*All stats courtesy of MiLB.com, Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Will Billy Beane’s Win-Now Trade Deadline Philosophy Pay Off or Backfire?

Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane is tired of his team being “one-and-done” in the playoffs.

The A’s have been to the postseason seven times during Beane’s 17-year tenure, but they reached the American League Championship Series just once. More recently, the A’s have won the American League West in each of the last two seasons only to lose to the Detroit Tigers in the American League Division Series.

This year, however, Oakland officially is “all-in.” And based on Beane‘s aggressive trades over the last month, he surely will be disappointed if the A’s season concludes with anything less than a World Series title.

Beane bookended the month of July with blockbuster trades for a pair of front-line starting pitchers, acquiring Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs on July 5 and then Jon Lester (and Jonny Gomes) from the Boston Red Sox hours before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

However, the A’s were forced to part with big pieces of the future in both trades.

To land Samardzija and Hammel, Beane traded a pair of highly touted prospects in shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder Billy McKinney, the team’s respective first-round draft picks from 2012 and 2013, as well as right-hander Dan Straily. Meanwhile, the opportunity to acquire both Lester and Gomes pushed Beane to trade All-Star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who previously was viewed as a main cog in the A’s future success.

Yet, for Beane, that was a small price to pay for a chance to win a World Series in 2014.

“We have a team that can win right now,” Beane said earlier this month, via Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “Just collecting young players is not something in our marketplace we can do.”

In general, both trades came as a complete surprise—at least to those outside the organization. Beane has a history of making blockbuster deals, but none of them involved the acquisition of “rental” players such as Lester and Hammel, both of whom will hit the open market after the season. Samardzija is at least under team control through 2015.

However, a closer look at Beane’s recent trade history suggests we should have seen these types of deals coming, as they represent the next logical steps for the A’s in their pursuit of a World Series.

After enduring a five-year playoff drought from 2007 to 2011, the A’s sneaked into the postseason in 2012 with a dramatic sweep of the Texas Rangers in the final series of the regular season. That taste of success—as well as the subsequent anguish of losing to the Tigers in a hard-fought ALDS—convinced Beane that he had a special team on his hands, a team with considerable room left to improve.

However, instead of targeting pricey free agents during the offseason, Beane capitalized on a leaguewide overvaluation of prospects and used the organization’s farm system to secure major league assets.

In fact, he went so far as to trade away a majority of the organization’s top-ranked prospects (as determined by Baseball America at the time of the trades), choosing to play the odds and not to buy into his young players’ long-term potential in the major leagues.

It goes without saying that the A’s would not be chasing their third consecutive AL West title this season if not for the returns in those trades.

R.J. Anderson of Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) explored Beane’s approach to prospects back in May:

The timing also provides a good spot to acknowledge an obvious truth: prospects can see their stock change in a hurry. The A’s had enough firsthand experience with the traded prospects by this point to determine whether they were overvalued by other teams; self-evaluation, such an underrated skill for front offices to possess, might have spurred the moves.

But no one can say for sure, and there are other potential explanations: maybe Beane (correctly) foresaw the AL West being more open than anyone anticipated, or maybe this was just an extension of the A’s longstanding strategy to push for the postseason.

And that brings us to Cespedes.

With the sixth-lowest payroll among all 30 teams (as of Opening Day) and a farm system that now ranks 28th overall after losing Russell and McKinney, the 2014 season will likely be the A’s last chance at winning a World Series for the next three to five years.

In previous years, Beane would have traded a young pitcher or two from depth in exchange for prospects, which then could be used to acquire a more established arm. However, Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin’s respective elbow injuries early in the spring made that impossible. Therefore, Cespedes represented Beane’s best chance at landing an ace before the deadline.

The 28-year-old outfielder, who’s in the third year of a four-year, $36 million contract, will become a free agent after the 2015 season, and by then he’ll be well out of Oakland’s spending range given the perpetual market for right-handed power.

Plus, as Anderson posited in regard to prospects, the team’s firsthand experience with Cespedes over the last two-and-half seasons surely played a key role in Beane’s decision to trade him Thursday.

On paper, Cespedes has come nowhere close to matching his 2012 production as a rookie, when he batted .292/.356/.505 with 23 home runs, good for a 137 wRC+ and 2.9 fWAR, via FanGraphs. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see him eclipsing a 3.0 WAR if he hasn’t already. Cespedes’ only redeeming quality is his .208 career ISO, but beyond that, his production has tapered off across the board.

For Beane, the philosophy behind trading Cespedes at the deadline for a two-plus-month rental of Lester wasn’t any different than his philosophy behind dealing Russell and McKinney for Samardzija; all-in means all-in.

With the A’s window of opportunity closing quickly, Beane jumped at the chance to turn his team into a legitimate World Series contender, knowing that the organization wouldn’t be any worse off moving forward regardless of how the 2014 season unfolded.

Obviously, any number of things could transpire between now and the end of the regular season, but there’s no question that Beane’s blockbuster trades in July have the A’s primed for a deep run into the postseason.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Picking MLB’s Second-Half All-X-Factor Team, Position by Position

Parity has been the story of the 2014 season.

With a little more than two months remaining in the regular season, the Detroit Tigers are the only team with a division lead of more than three games, as they currently hold a seven-game advantage over the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central.

Elsewhere in the AL, the Orioles have a three-game lead over the Yankees and Blue Jays in the East, while the A’s sit three games ahead of the Angels in the West. In the National League, the Dodgers and Nationals lead the East and West by 1.5 games, respectively, and the Brewers are three games up on the Pirates and Cardinals in the Central.

Overall, 15 teams have at least a 21 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus’ postseason probabilities, via MLB.com.

While there is still plenty of time before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline for teams to improve their on-field products, the lack of big-name trade targets means that most organizations will be forced to rely on players on their current roster.

With that said, here is one player at each position that has the potential to be an X-factorsomeone who can make or break his team’s chancesduring the second half of the season. 

 

All stats up to date through July 23. Records up to date through July 24. 

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Are High-Profile Trade Rentals Worth the Risk to MLB Deadline Buyers?

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline rapidly approaching, the question on everyone’s mind is whether the Tampa Bay Rays will trade David Price.

Should the Rays deal the Cy Young Award-winning left-hander, they are likely to receive a bounty of young talent (mostly prospects) in return. The team that acquires Price should get a big boost heading toward the playoffs.

However, as you’ll see in the case studies below, trades are not always even.

 

Houston Astros Acquire Randy Johnson (July 31, 1998)

The Mariners parted with The Big Unit at the 1998 trade deadline, sending him to the Astros in exchange for Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia and John Halama.

Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA and four complete-game shutouts in 11 starts and guided the Astros to an NL Central title. They went on to lose to the Padres in the NLDS, with Kevin Brown out-dueling Johnson in the series opener.

Guillen was called up by the Mariners a little more than a month after the trade and went on to post a 25.9 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) over 14 seasons.

Garcia debuted the following season as a 22-year-old, and the right-hander opened eyes by finishing second and ninth in the AL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award voting, respectively. He pitched for seven different teams over 15 seasons in the major leagues and finished his career with 2,264 innings pitched and a 32.7 WAR.

Halama posted a 7.2 WAR and played for seven different teams over parts of nine seasons. Overall, the three players combined for 27.7 wins during their time with the Mariners.

 

Milwaukee Brewers Acquire CC Sabathia (July 7, 2008) 

If you want a shining example of how a midseason blockbuster trade can improve a team’s chances of reaching the postseason, then look no further than the Brewers’ acquisition of CC Sabathia from the Indians in 2008.

The Brewers had a 50-40 record and were four games back in the NL Central when they traded for Sabathia, who was set to become a free agent following the season.

The left-hander gave it everything he had down the stretch, even with a big contract on the line. He went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA, throwing seven complete games and registering three shutouts in just 17 starts.

No one will ever forget when he started on three days’ rest with the season on the line and pitched the Brewers to their first postseason appearance since 1982. It speaks to Sabathia’s utter dominance that he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting despite only playing a half-season in the league.

Back in 2012, J.P. Breen of FanGraphs helped put Sabathia’s remarkable performance in perspective:

Ultimately, the trade allowed the Brewers to upgrade from Seth McClung to CC Sabathia in the starting rotation. McClung held his own as an emergency starter, posting a 4.24 ERA in the rotation that year, but the overall upgrade for the organization was likely three or four wins. Sabathia was worth +4.6 WAR during his stint with the Brewers. It was one of the more impressive stretches on the mound in recent years. In fact, of pitchers who threw at least 100 innings during the 2008 season, only 18 pitchers compiled more than +4.6 WAR over the entire season.

The Indians received three prospects in return for Sabathia, including Matt LaPorta (Milwaukee’s first-round pick from the previous year). However, LaPorta never panned out for the Tribe, as he produced a dismal minus-1.4 WAR in 291 career games before his release following the 2013 season.

The other big name in the deal was outfielder Michael Brantley, who arguably has been the Indians’ best player this season and was selected to his first All-Star Game nearly six years after the trade.

 

Philadelphia Phillies Acquire Cliff Lee (July 29, 2009)

The Phillies won their second NL title in as many years in 2009 before losing to the Yankees in the World Series, though it’s doubtful they would have made it that far without Cliff Lee.

The Phillies landed Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco a few days before the trade deadline. They dealt Jason Knapp (currently at the High-A level in the Rangers system after four years away from the game), Carlos Carrasco (2.0 WAR over five seasons with the Indians), Jason Donald (0.5 WAR over three MLB seasons) and Lou Marson (2.7 WAR over five MLB seasons).

Lee went 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and three complete games (one shutout) in 12 starts after joining the Phillies. More importantly, the veteran left-hander went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and two complete games in five postseason starts.

After the season, Lee walked via free agency and signed with the Seattle Mariners, though he wouldn’t be long for the West Coast.

 

Texas Rangers Acquire Cliff Lee (July 9, 2010)

After seeing what Lee did for the Phillies, the Rangers decided to trade for the then-31-year-old several weeks before the actual deadline. They acquired Lee and right-hander Mark Lowe in exchange for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson.

Smoak and Beavan are the only players still with the Mariners, though the former has struggled to the tune of a 0.1 WAR over the last five seasons. 

Beavan has bounced between the rotation and bullpen, posting a 4.61 ERA and 0.6 WAR over 293 total innings.

Lueke also saw considerably time out of the Mariners bullpen before he was traded to the Rays in 2012—where he’s currently stationed in Triple-A—and Lawson failed to reach the major leagues.

Amazingly, Lee was better post-trade deadline in 2010 than he was the previous year. He registered a 3.98 ERA and 3.2 WAR over 15 starts and helped the Rangers reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history.

Lee was phenomenal during the division and championship series, winning each of his three starts and registering a 0.75 ERA. However, he struggled in the Fall Classic against the Giants, as he pitched to a disappointing 6.94 ERA and lost both starts.

The Giants ultimately defeated the Rangers in five games.

 

San Francisco Giants Acquire Carlos Beltran (July 28, 2011)

The Giants had high expectations in 2011 after winning the Word Series in 2010, so it was understandable when they traded for Carlos Beltran from the Mets. However, the two-month rental cost the Giants a promising young arm in Zack Wheeler, the team’s first-round draft pick from 2009.

Beltran played very well for the Giants over 44 games, batting .323/.369/.551 with seven home runs before landing on the disabled list in August with a hand injury. However, his performance alone wasn’t enough to get the team back into the postseason. The Giants went 25-31 over the rest of the season and finished eight games out.

Looking back on the trade several years later, Giants manager Bruce Bochy maintained that trading for Beltran was still the right move even though the team failed to reach the postseason (via Adam Rubin of ESPN New York):

But I think any time you have a chance to win the World Series [you go for it] — which we did in ’10, we made a move, and 2012 we made some moves, and it worked out and we ended up getting rings on our finger because of it. That’s something a lot of clubs do. Unfortunately, we just didn’t have the bats to quite get us there [in 2011].

Beltran left via free agency after the season and signed with the Cardinals. Wheeler, meanwhile, has blossomed into one of the better young starting pitchers in the game and represents a key piece of the Mets’ future.

The 24-year-old right-hander is quietly having a strong first full season in the major leagues, with a 3.78 ERA and 8.82 K/9 over 20 starts.

 

Los Angeles Angels Acquire Zack Greinke (July 27, 2012)

The Los Angeles Angels went all-in when they traded for Zack Greinke in 2012, the first year that featured a wild card play-in game.

The right-hander did everything he could to help the Halos reach the postseason, going 6-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts. The team ultimately came up short by dropping the final series of the season against the A’s.

In return for Greinke, the Brewers received a loaded prospect package comprised of shortstop Jean Segura as well as right-handers Ariel Pena and Johnny Hellweg.

Segura obviously was the big piece in the deal, as the 24-year-old was named to his first All-Star team as a rookie in 2013. Hellweg, who’s seen time in the major leagues but underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring, and Pena both have bright futures in the bullpen.

 

Conclusions

The six trades outlined suggest that a team willing to risk its long-term future is more likely to reach the postseason.

Both Randy Johnson and CC Sabathia guided their respective teams to appearances in the NLDS, while Cliff Lee played a major role in helping the Phillies and Rangers reach the World Series in back-to-back years.

Greinke and Beltran represent the exceptions to the theory. They played well following their respective trades but failed to reach the postseason. That being said, both players still improved their teams’ chances of reaching the playoffs and at least kept them in contention down the stretch.

However, history says that it’s hit or miss when it comes to trading prospects for high-profile talents.

For example, trading Randy Johnson to the Astros in 1998 netted the Mariners two future All-Stars in Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen. The same goes for the Brewers’ and Indians’ respective acquisitions of Jean Segura and Michael Brantley.

But not every prospects-for-star trade works out for both sides. The Indians and Phillies both came up empty with the prospect packages they received for Cliff Lee. None of the players involved in those trades developed into replacement-level talents.

Therefore, it makes sense for a team in the playoff hunt to potentially sacrifice its future for short-term success, provided that it fits the organization’s timeline

As we all know, however, agreeing to and executing a trade of that nature is easier said than done.

 

*All stats courtesy of either Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Not Signing Brady Aiken Will Come Back to Haunt Houston Astros

The signing deadline for 2014 draft picks officially passed Friday at 5 p.m. ET, and the Houston Astros were not able to sign No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken, according Jim Callis of MLB.com (via Twitter). He also reports that the Astros failed to sign fifth-rounder Jacob Nix and 21st-rounder Mac Marshall.

It wasn’t long after the draft, two days to be exact, that Aiken reportedly agreed to a $6.5 million bonus with the Astros. On June 23, the Cathedral Catholic High (San Diego) left-hander arrived in Houston to make his signing official, which obviously didn’t happen.

After two weeks of speculation as to why Aiken was yet to sign, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that the Astros saw something they didn’t like in a post-draft MRI of the 17-year-old’s left elbow. As a result, the team immediately reduced its offer to Aiken from $6.5 to $5 million, well below the $7.9 million slot value for the No. 1 overall pick.

However, it wasn’t until earlier this week that we learned the specifics of Aiken’s elbow issue. According to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle:

A person with knowledge of the situation told the Chronicle on Tuesday that there is a ‘cut-and-dry’ issue with the anatomy of Aiken’s ulnar collateral ligament, even though he is currently able to pitch. Aiken has visited five doctors, the person said: two affiliated with the team and three who were not, including the renowned Dr. James Andrews.

He may have some (of the UCL), but not much, the person said, adding that Tommy John surgery, which has become common in baseball, would not be a straightforward solution in this instance.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports confirmed in a separate report that the Astros believe “Aiken’s physical revealed a ‘significant abnormality’ in the area of his elbow ligament,” and he also added the team once again had made a revised offer to the southpaw of $3,168,840.

However, Aiken’s adviser, Casey Close, has maintained throughout the ordeal that his client is fully healthy, despite reports of an elbow issue, via Rosenthal:

Brady has been seen by some of the most experienced and respected orthopedic arm specialists in the country, and all of those doctors have acknowledged that he’s not injured and that he’s ready to start his professional career.

Aiken’s personal trainer, Paul Flores, also said that the left-hander was healthy and ready to begin his professional career, via Drellich:

When it comes to throwing off a mound, that’s not my area of expertise. But I know he’s throwing, so. He’s not in pain. He comes to me after, and I always ask, as a trainer, the first question I ask any of my clients or athletes is, ‘How do you feel today?’ Just to make sure that whatever it is they’re feeling is going to dictate how the intensity is going to be. He always tells me he feels great — and not good, great.

He’s in incredible shape.

Furthermore, the Astros handling of the situation with the No. 1 overall pick was widely criticized by industry members, including MLBPA executive director Tony Clark, though technically it did not break any rules outlined in Major League Baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement.

A $3,168,840 bonus (40 percent of his slot value) would have been the lowest figure the Astros could have offered Aiken in order to guarantee they receive the No. 2 overall pick in next year’s draft. Because Aiken chose not to sign, the Astros lost his slot value ($7,922,100) from their bonus pool, giving the team considerably less to spend on its other unsigned first-round picks, according to Rosenthal.

The uncertainty surrounding Aiken’s signing also affected contract negotiations with their remaining unsigned draft picks, including fifth-rounder Jacob Nix, who previously had agreed with the Astros on a well-above-slot bonus of $1.5 million and already passed his physical, and 21st-rounder Mac Marshall, who also was a candidate to sign an above-slot deal thanks to the money saved with Aiken.

Since the Astros failed to sign Aiken, it presumably left them unable to sign Nix without incurring a defined penalty in next year’s draft, let alone Nix and Marshall.

Based on Fridays news that the team came up empty with all three pitchers, it would seem as though thats precisely what happened.

Meanwhile, the Astros now face another public relations nightmare after failing to sign Aiken, whom general manager Jeff Luhnow claimed (in the above video) is “the most advanced high school pitcher he’s ever seen in his entire career,” before the deadline.

Needless to say, not signing Aiken is a major disappointment for the franchise, whom Sports Illustrated expects to win the World Series in 2017, and especially when considering the ongoing struggles this season of 2013 No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel at the High-A level.

But with the news that Aiken won’t be joining the Astros organization, at least not this year, the team will shift its focus to the 2015 draft, as it’ll now have the No. 2 overall pick after failing to sign the prep left-hander.

While they’ll still be able to land a top-flight amateur prospect next year, the Astros won’t find a player more talented than Aiken, argues Jim Callis of MLB.com:

If the Astros cant land Aiken today, theyll get the second choice in the 2015 Draft and be in position to grab a premium talent. Thats not a bad consolation prize, though its not optimal, because theyll have to wait a year and wont get someone quite as gifted as Aiken.

Former big league All-Star Mike Camerons son Dazron, an outfielder from Eagles Landing High in McDonough, Ga., is the consensus No. 1 talent for next years Draft. Theres no clear No. 2 prospect, especially not one who stands out like Aiken does.

Furthermore, after striking out with No. 1 picks Appel and Aiken in back-to-back years, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the Astros alter their draft strategy in 2015.

While they obviously would benefit from adding more high-ceiling arms to their already-impressive farm system, their success in developing shortstop Carlos Correa, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, could push the organization to target another impact hitter next year rather than a pitcher, even if he’s not perceived to be the best player available.

Unfortunately, the Astros 2014 draft now will forever be remembered as a complete and utter failure. That said, only time will determine how the organization’s inability to sign Aiken (as well as Nix and Marshall) will impact its long-term success.

One thing is certain, however: Failing to reach an agreement with the No. 1 overall pick is a crushing blow for an Astros franchise that’s in the midst of a rebuilding process and potentially a few years away from playoff relevancy.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Biggest Winners and Losers from 2014 MLB International Free Agency

Though the 2014-15 international signing period officially began only last Wednesday, a majority of the top prospects in this year’s class have already signed or agreed to sign with a major league club.

While most teams played by the rules and stayed within their allotted bonus pools, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox opted to ignore spending limitations (at the cost of a future penalty) in order to sign many of the top-ranked prospects in this year’s class. 

Based on the quality of players they’ve signed thus far, it’s hard to criticize either team for having the means to exploit a loophole in the current collective bargaining agreement. At the same time, there also were plenty of teams that landed promising young players without exceeding their bonus pools.

Yet, while the Yankees and Red Sox have both enjoyed a rewarding start to the current international signing period, there are several teams that, for one reason or another, have made lackluster signings, while others that have been kept off the board entirely.

With that in mind, it simply isn’t fair to declare teams as either “winners” or “losers” less than one week into the signing period; remember, we’re talking about 15- and 16-year-old kids who have minimal experience and will need numerous seasons to develop in the minor leagues, if they’re even so lucky to reach a stateside level. However, that doesn’t mean teams’ international strategies aren’t worth analyzing.

Here are the early “winners” and “losers” of the 2014-15 international signing period, with an emphasis on clubs that have fared well over the last week.

 

*All bonus pool and signing information is courtesy of either Ben Badler of Baseball AmericaJesse Sanchez of MLB.com or MLB Trade Rumors.

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Kyle Schwarber’s New MLB ETA, Projection After Unreal Pro Start

The Chicago Cubs surprised the baseball world last month by selecting Kyle Schwarber out of Indiana University with the No. 4 overall pick in the first-year player draft.

While the initial belief was that the Cubs drafted Schwarber in order to save money for a run on arms in subsequent rounds, the 21-year-old catcher/outfielder already has proved to be more than a cost-saving pick thanks to a tremendous start to his professional career—a start that has him on the fast track to the major leagues.

After Schwarber and the Cubs agreed to a $3.125 million signing bonus—well below the $4.621 million value for the slot—the team assigned him to short-season Boise, where he batted .600 with four home runs and 10 RBI in his first five games. Unsurprisingly, his impressive showing in the Northwest League resulted in a quick promotion to Low-A Kane County.

It didn’t take long for Schwarber to make an impact at the more advanced level, as he hit safely in his first seven games with Kane County—an 11-game hitting streak including his brief stay at Boise—and collected five extra-base hits. In general, the left-handed batter has feasted on Midwest League pitching, with a .358/.460/.679 batting line, nine extra-base hits (four homers) and 11 RBI in only 15 games.

Between both levels, Schwarber is batting a robust .425/.506/.863 with eight home runs, six doubles and 21 RBI through the first 20 games of his career.

 

Developmental Timeline

The Cubs have done nothing but extol the virtues of Schwarber’s bat since selecting him in the first round. Scouting director Jason McLeod said the team had Schwarber ranked very highly on its big board headed into the draft, per ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, behind only eventual No. 1 pick Brady Aiken.

“Kyle Schwarber was No. 2 on our prep list,” McLeod said. “We were enamored with Brady Aiken but Kyle was No. 2.”

At 6’0″, 235 pounds, Schwarber’s combination of physical strength and bat speed translates to plus raw power from line to line, not to mention his ability to apply it consistently during games. He also projects to hit for average at the highest level, thanks to an advanced approach, excellent bat-to-ball skills and clean, quick swing in which he keeps the barrel in the hitting zone for an extended period of time.

Provided everything goes according to plan with his development, Schwarber has the upside of a .280 hitter with 20-25 home runs at maturity.

However, while his bat looks as though it will be ready sooner rather than later, Schwarber’s development on the other side of the ball is more likely to influence when he arrives in the major leagues.

The Cubs listed Schwarber as a catcher when the selection was announced, as expected due to the potential value of his offensive profile at a premium position. Yet there already was concern heading into the draft about his ability to stay behind the plate long-term.

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com wrote of Schwarber predraft:

His offensive ability could make him a star as a catcher — provided that he can stay behind the plate. While he moves well for his size, his throwing and receiving both grade as below average and could prompt a move to the outfield, where he has seen time for the Hoosiers.

Meanwhile, Baseball America noted in its predraft report (subscription required) on Schwarber that he’s made strides defensively during his time at Indiana but still lacks a favorable long-term projection at the position:

Schwarber has made considerable improvement defensively over the course of his Indiana career, carrying over some hard-learned lessons when he struggled handling velocity with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team last summer. He still stabs and boxes too many balls, and a long transfer can sabotage his solid-average arm strength, but he’s thrown out 33 percent of basestealers this season after nabbing just 19 percent in 2013. His leadership qualities have been evident with the Hoosiers and he has a strong, durable body for catching, but he’ll never be more than a fringe-average defender.

In theory, Schwarber would require additional time in the minor leagues if developed as a catcher, whereas a move to the outfield full-time would likely allow the Cubs to expedite the arrival of his bat in the major leagues.

Cubs president Theo Epstein has already said that the organization won’t impede Schwarber’s development by forcing him to remain behind the plate if his bat merits a fast-tracking to the major leagues, per Rodgers.

So far this season, Schwarber has appeared in the same number of games (eight) behind the plate as he has in left field, alternating between the two positions on a day-to-day basis while also receiving the occasional start at designated hitter.

There’s no denying Schwarber offers greater future value as a catcher, even though it would prevent him from debuting with the Cubs until 2016, at the earliest. However, Epstein’s remarks suggest the organization won’t shy away from moving him to the outfield when the time comes, which, as of now, represents his likely developmental and career path.

If that ultimately happens, Schwarber could be ready for his first taste of the major leagues sometime during the second half of the 2015 season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


How Hyped Defector Yasmani Tomas Compares to Recent Cuban Phenoms

Late last week we learned through a report by Ben Badler of Baseball America (h/t MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams) that another high-profile Cuban hitter, outfielder Yasmani Tomas, had defected in order to pursue a career in Major League Baseball.

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com noted that the 23-year-old currently is in the Dominican Republic, and Adams points out he “needs to establish residence in a foreign country and then be cleared by both Major League Baseball and the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control” before he can sign.

With that in place, Tomas will be free to sign with an interested team for any amount, as his age and experience—he played in parts of five seasons for the Industriales in Cuba’s Serie Nacional—”make him exempt from MLB’s international spending limitations.”

There isn’t a definite timetable for the aforementioned process, as Adams notes, and Tomas may not end up signing with a team until late 2014 or even 2015.

However, once he’s been cleared to sign, expect a bidding war to take place between numerous teams.

Here’s what you need to know about Tomas in advance of his potential stateside career.

 

Background

Tomas debuted as an 18-year-old in Cuba’s Serie Nacional during the 2008-09 season, and, for the most part, the teenager held his own with a .297/.350/.385 batting line and five extra-base hits in 91 at-bats. He appeared in 35 games for the Industriales, seeing time at both corner outfielder positions as well as first and third base.

Tomas appeared in only 24 games the following year and batted just .185/.179/.370 in 27 at-bats, and didn’t receive any playing time—for reasons unknown—for the Industriales during the 2010-11 season.

However, Tomas would emerge as one of Cuba’s more prolific hitters the following season, as the 21-year-old batted .298/.340/.581 with 20 home runs, 15 doubles, 50 RBI and a 57-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 272 at-bats (83 games).

Tomas added to his resume the following year with another strong offensive season, as he batted .289/.364/.538 with 15 homers, 18 doubles, 60 RBI and a 52-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 277 at-bats. He also drew 10 intentional walks while appearing in over 80 games (81, to be exact) for the second consecutive season.

It also marked the first time in Tomas’ Serie Nacional career that he played center field almost exclusively.

In his final year (2013-14) with the Industriales, Tomas’s playing time and production both were limited due to a wrist injury suffered during the season. However, the 23-year-old still managed to turn in a solid offensive campaign, batting .291/.348/.452 with 23 extra-base hits (six home runs) and 35 RBI in 230 at-bats.

Tomas also opened eyes during the 2013 World Baseball Classic while serving as one of the younger players on the Cuban national team, as he was 6-for-16 (.412) with two home runs, one double, one walk and four strikeouts in the tournament.

 

Scouting Report

The first thing you’ll hear about Tomas is that he possesses enormous raw power—legitimate 70-grade thump according to Badler:

A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required) praised Tomas’ swing mechanics and approach, stating that he’s “very short to the ball – maybe even more so than [Jose] Abreu – with good hip rotation and a quiet approach.”

Scouting Baseball’s Kiley McDaniel (subscription required) also noted Tomas’s sound right-handed swing when commenting on his power:

Tomas’ power is mostly to his pull side and he’ll swing out of his shoes at times, showing some attributes of a 4A slugger. That said, Tomas has a cleaner, quieter swing with more power than those types of hitters, though his bat speed is average at best.

Even though Tomas saw time in center field during his tenure with the Industriales, few believe that he’ll able to handle the position in the major leagues, with the consensus being he’s better suited for a career in right or left field.

According to Law:

Tomas is a stout center fielder who’ll have to move to a corner outfield spot, as he’s a below-average runner with a stiff body who could probably stand to shed some weight before he signs. (Baseball-Reference lists him at 6 feet 1 and 229 pounds, but he looked much heavier than that last summer.)

McDaniel echoed Law’s belief in Tomas as a corner outfielder:

His frame is a little thick and while he plays some center field for Cuba, he’s a corner outfield fit in the big leagues. His arm strength varies game-to-game but scouts have seen a 55 enough to think he’s got a chance to play a solid right field.

Overall, Law contends that a reasonable projection for Tomas would be an “average to slightly above-average regular in left field, with 25 to 30 homers, a low OBP and below-average defense.”

McDaniel also is skeptical of Tomas’ hit tool and wonders whether or not it will affect his power frequency in the major leagues, writing: “Scouts think that inclination and bat speed will lead to a 45 or 50 bat (.250-.260 average, .320-.330 on-base) and the question is if that will be enough to get his 25 homer power in games, or he ends up being a platoon bat.”

 

Comparing Tomas to Other Cuban Stars

Since Tomas basically played in three full seasons (his age-21 to age-23 seasons) before defecting, I thought it would be interesting to look at how some of the other recent Cuban signees, specifically Jose Abreu and Yoenis Cespedes—Yasiel Puig signed with the Dodgers as a 21-year-old—fared at the same age:

The above statistics support the previous scouting assessments that Tomas is not the same type of all-around, dynamic hitter that both Abreu and Cespedes were at the same age.

However, the fact that Tomas’ numbers in Cuba weren’t as impressive as Abreu, Cespedes or Puig’s doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t receive a big payday once eligible to sign. According to Law, “Tomas might get paid like Jose Abreu or Yasiel Puig, but he’s not in their class as a prospect, and if paid similarly, he would be benefiting from how successful Abreu and Puig have been.”

McDaniel also believes that Tomas’ potential contract will have more to do with the market than his recent success in Serie Nacional:

I point all that out to say that Tomas’ raw talent or closest comparable won’t be the most important factor to determining his payday; the amount of teams seriously bidding will. For all we know, Tomas is the last notable Cuban bat to hit the market for the next 5 years and for clubs that don’t want to overpay for a 30-year-old domestic free agent, this is their chance to make a splash that doesn’t also cost a high draft pick.

That said, the industry consensus is that Tomas won’t receive anywhere close to Abreu’s six-year, $68 million deal with the White Sox or Puig’s seven-year, $42 million contract with the Dodgers.

However, based on some of the other contracts handed out in recent years to Cespedes (four years, $36 million), Alex Guerrero (four years, $28 million) and Erisbel Arruebarruena (five years, $25 million), it’s seemingly a safe bet that the 23-year-old Tomas will receive a deal for anywhere from four to seven years that’s worth as much as $30 million to $35 million.

 

*All stats from Cuba’s Serie Nacional are courtesy of ESPN’s Cuban-Play.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


5 Scorching MLB Prospects Who Deserve Midseason Promotions

This season already has featured promotions for some of baseball’s top prospects, as we’ve seen George Springer, Gregory Polanco, Marcus Stroman and Andrew Heaney receive call-ups to the major leagues, while big names such as Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts and Joey Gallo have moved up to higher minor league levels.

However, while the aforementioned players already have received promotions, there are even more prospects putting up impressive numbers who are long overdue for the challenge of a new level.

Here are five scorching prospects who deserve midseason promotions.

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2014 MLB Futures Game Roster: Breaking Down Team USA and the World Team

The 25-man rosters for the 2014 Futures Game were released Tuesday, via MLB, giving fans an idea of which prospects will be suiting up for the U.S. and World teams on Sunday, July 13.

Since its introduction in 1999, the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game has evolved into the hidden gem of All-Star weekend.

The event offers fans a unique opportunity to watch baseball’s brightest prospects on the same field.

Each year the event serves as a stepping stone for prospects destined for greatness, as 22 players from last year’s game have already reached the major leagues.

Though some of the younger players are in the early stages of development, a majority of the participants in this year’s game are within striking distance of the major leagues and could potentially debut before the end of the season.

Here is a look at the 50 prospects selected to play for the U.S. and World teams in this year’s Futures Game.

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