Tag: Prospect Pipeline

Scouting Reports, Potential Suitors for Top 20 International Prospects

With less than two weeks until the 2014-15 international signing period is set to begin July 2 (J2), teams are currently doing everything in their power to reach an agreement with one (or in some cases many) of the top amateur prospects in this year’s class.

Last year, both the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers willingly exceeded their respective bonus pools in order to sign some of the best-available talent. This time around, the New York Yankees are preparing to take things to a new level.

Back in December, Kiley McDaniel of Scouting Baseball (subscription required) broke news of the Yankees’ plan to essentially ignore international spending restrictions and sign roughly six players for a total of $12 million. (For reference, they have an assigned bonus pool of $2.191 million.) His latest update on the Yankees’ strategy has them signing up to two additional players and spending nearly $15 million. Either way, the Bronx Bombers are preparing to turn the international spending system on its head on July 2—and they aren’t the only ones.

According to Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), both the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are expected to spend beyond their bonus pools this year and pay the maximum fine for doing so. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers also are believed to be willing to go beyond their allotted pool money in the 2014-15 signing period.

In terms of available talent, this year’s international class is loaded with potential high-ceiling hitters, many of whom project to play an up-the-middle position at the next level, as well as several notable arms.

Here is a look at the top 20 prospects, broken down by position, who are expected to sign with an MLB team beginning July 2, with updates on their potential suitors based on reports from other well-known industry experts.

 

*A majority of the links to articles by Ben Badler (Baseball America) and Kiley McDaniel (Scouting Baseball) will take you to paywall-protected content.

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Introducing Shohei Otani, Baseball’s New International Teenage Phenom

Back in October 2012, teenage phenom Shohei Otani had the baseball world buzzing with excitement after he expressed a desire to sign with an MLB team out high school in Japan rather than begin his career in Nippon Professional Baseball.

But after being selected by the Nippon Ham Fighters with the No. 1 overall pick in that year’s NPB amateur draft, the highly touted right-hander ultimately decided to put his major league aspirations on hold, at least temporarily, and sign with the well-known NPB franchise.

However, Otani’s showing with the Fighters this season, highlighted by a recent stretch of flat-out dominant pitching performances—not to mention the overwhelming successes of countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka in Major League Baseball—now has the 19-year-old back at the forefront of all discussions regarding who will be the next elite Japanese pitcher to pursue a career in the States.

 

Background

After his outstanding career at Hanamaki Higashi High School and strong performance for Japan’s 18-and-under national team, Otani, a 6’4” right-hander, captured headlines worldwide with the announcement that he would bypass the NPB and pursue a career in MLB (via The Associated Press on ESPN.com). He then urged his potential NPB suitors not to draft him in the league’s annual amateur draft.

Unlike Darvish and Tanaka, who each had to go through NPB’s posting system before signing with an MLB club, Otani qualified as an international free agent after completing his final high school season. Therefore, it didn’t come as a surprise to learn that upward of eight teams, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers, expressed interest in signing the then-18-year-old pitcher (via the New York Daily News).

As previously mentioned, Nippon Ham did not adhere to Otani’s request and selected him with the first pick in the draft. Though he still could have stayed true to his claim by signing with an MLB team, the right-hander ultimately decided to sign with the Fighters for the equivalent of a $1.2 million bonus and receive the maximum rookie base salary of $150,000.

Aside from the lucrative and flattering bonus, Otani’s decision to remain in Japan presumably was at least in part influenced by a league rule that any player who signs an international contract without having played in the NPB would be banned from the circuit for three years. Plus, Nippon Ham offered Otani, who also starred as a slugging outfielder for his high school team, an opportunity to keep playing both ways as a member of its organization. For the sake of comparison, he surely would have been restricted to a career on the mound with a major league team and been forced to spend multiple seasons refining his craft in the minor leagues.

Otani actually saw more time in the outfield than on the mound in his first professional season in Japan’s NPB, but struggled to make an impact in either role.

At the plate, the left-handed hitter posted a disappointing batting line of .238/.284/.376 to go along with 15 doubles, three home runs and a 64-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 204 plate appearances (77 games). On the bump, Otani pitched to a 4.23 ERA with 33 walks (4.8 BB/9) and 46 strikeouts (6.7 K/9) in 61.2 innings (11 starts).

However, the 19-year-old’s current sophomore campaign has been an entirely different story.

Offensively, Otani has shown vast improvement despite playing in only 38 games as a hitter, as he currently owns a solid .271/.330/.438 batting line with eight doubles, two homers and a 22-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 106 plate appearances. 

Meanwhile, the right-hander has rapidly fulfilled his prophecy as one of Japan’s premier pitchers by posting a 6-1 record, 2.61 ERA and 76-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 69 innings (11 starts).

Otani has been especially dominant this month, which began with a jaw-dropping performance against Hiroshima Carp ace Kenta Maeda, who many believe will pursue an MLB career in 2015. Otani allowed one run over five innings and struck out 10 batters without issuing a walk. According to Ben Badler (the guru of all things international baseball) of Baseball America, the right-hander bumped 99 mph with his fastball in the outing.

Otani likely would have pitched well beyond the fifth inning—his pitch count sat at 71 heading into the sixth—had it not been for a sprained ankle suffered as he slid across home plate while scoring a run.

Thankfully, Otani’s injury proved to be minor and didn’t prevent him from making his next scheduled start against the Yomiuri Giants, when he once again lit up radar guns with a 99 mph heater (via Badler on Twitter).

 

The Scouting Report

Back in late 2012, when everyone was busy speculating about Otani’s potential jump from Japan to the major leagues, Patrick Newman of NPBTracker.com offered a detailed scouting report on the right-hander after taking in one of his high school starts:

I’ve only seen one Otani pitch one full game, his appearance in this spring’s Koshien Senbatsu tournament against fellow draft phenom Shintaro Fujinami. It was a frustrating game to watch, as the raw quality of Otani’s stuff was evident, but his command was non-existent. He featured a fastball ranging from about 145-152 km/h (90-95 mph), a slider around 132-136 km/h (82-84 mph) and curve around 125 km/h (77 mph). Everything had movement, and his wildness was of the effective variety until the 6th inning, when he and his defense faltered, before melting down (video) in the 7th. For the day, Otani struck out 11, walked 11 and gave up nine runs (five earned) while taking the loss.

Though Newman’s assessment of Otani was based on a single start, his less-than-flattering evaluation of Japan’s next pitching sensation highlighted more weaknesses than strengths, not to mention the large gap between his present ability and overall potential.

However, fast forward to the present day and the scouting reports on Otani now depict a future star with legitimate front-of-the-rotation stuff. According to Badler:

Otani’s fastball was overpowering, sitting at 94-98 mph and hitting the upper end of that range consistently. His lone run allowed came on a hanging slider to Brad Eldred, who crushed Otani’s mistake for a home run.

Otani, who’s 6-foot-4, 190 pounds, overmatched hitters with his fastball, though his 84-88 mph splitter was a solid pitch at times. He also throws a 78-81 mph slider and a curveball that he manipulates speeds on, ranging anywhere from the mid-60s to the mid-70s.

Now that’s more like it.

 

The Future

For those hoping to see Otani suddenly bail on his NPB career in favor of signing with an MLB team—don’t get your hopes up; both Darvish and Tanaka spent seven seasons in Japan before becoming eligible to be posted. ‘

Plus, after the latest amendments to the NPB posting system, which sets a maximum posting fee—a product of MLB teams’ feeding frenzy for the chance to land Tanaka—Nippon Ham will have even less incentive to make Otani a free agent after his required seven years in the league. Therefore, assuming the organization follows that regulation, it’s likely that the earliest we’ll see him pitch in the States is 2020.

However, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Given the ballooning injury rate this year among pitchers in the minor and major leagues, teams willing to shell out big bucks for Otani might be better off monitoring his development and health over the coming years rather than hastily going all-in to offer him an absurd long-term, nine-figure contract as a 19- or 20-year-old.

 

*All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Each MLB Team’s ‘Hidden Gem’ Prospect Fans May Not Know About

Due to the amount of attention paid to each organization’s top prospects and early-round draft picks, many of the game’s underrated prospects are perpetually obscured. Most of the time, these prospects are younger players housed in the low minors who still require considerable physical projection and time to develop. At the same time, there are countless prospects on the older side of the age curve that have dipped off the radar due to injury.

So how does one identify such players? Well, I began by excluding any player ranked among his team’s top-10 prospects (per Prospect Pipeline’s preseason rankings) heading into the season as well as those players recently selected in the 2014 first-year player draft. Lastly, I decided to filter out prospects that began the current season at or above the Double-A level, with exceptions being made for players who are 21 years of age or younger.

With all that being said, here’s a look at one hidden gem from each organization who should be followed closely moving forward.

 

All stats are current through June 18, 2014 and courtesy of either MiLB.com, Baseball-Reference or The Baseball Cube (for college players), unless otherwise noted.

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MLB Draft 2015 Big Board: B/R’s Initial Position-by-Position Rankings

We’re only a few days removed from the conclusion of the 2014 draft, but it’s never too early to start looking ahead at what next year’s class has to offer.

While my colleague Adam Wells already highlighted many of the top 2015 prospects on Monday with a mock draft, here we’ll look at next year’s crop of talent in greater depth through a position-by-position breakdown. Each player’s position is based on his projection as a professional, as guys are often drafted at a position other than their primary position as an amateur.

Players are ranked based on their perceived impact potential in the major leagues. However, keep in mind that these rankings will change drastically between now and next June, as the class hasn’t even taken shape beyond some of the highly touted prospects you’ll soon read about.

Here are the top-ranked 2015 draft prospects at each position. 

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MLB Draft Big Board 2014: Mike Rosenbaum’s Complete Predraft Rankings

With the 2014 MLB Rule 4 draft less than a month away, its time to take a look at the top prospects in this years class.

The noticeable lack of impact hitters on board (especially from the college ranks) highlights the pitching-heavy nature of this year’s class, as teams will have an endless list of promising arms to choose from in the early rounds.

Yet, with every organization expected to target players based on the spending limitations (draft pool) of MLBs collective bargaining agreement, its almost impossible to accurately predict just how early some players will be selected.

However, as part of Prospect Pipelines all-out draft coverage leading up to and through the event, which is to be held June 5-7, we’ve put together a rankings of the top 150 prospects in the class to familiarize everyone with many of this year’s big names.

Please note that this is not a mock draft or a prediction of exactly where players will be selected. You can expect every player on this list to be taken in the draft, likely within the first five rounds. Therefore, the following rankings are based upon a players potential impact as a major league player.

As always the case with the MLB draft, any number of things can and will change between now and June 5. So, be sure to check back frequently over the coming weeks for updated rankings and further insight as to how the draft may unfold.

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Will Jorge Soler Develop into Cubs’ Crosstown Version of Jose Abreu?

We’re a little more than a month into the season and it’s already clear the Chicago White Sox’s Jose Abreu is this year’s Cuban sensation.

In 2012 it was Yoenis Cespedes. Last year, it was Yasiel Puig. But once Abreu’s reign of rookie production comes to an end this fall, which Cuban player is the next in line to become a star in 2015?

The popular pick is 22-year-old Jorge Soler, who is currently on the seven-day disabled list for Double-A Tennessee, the Chicago Cubs’ affiliate in the Southern League. Signed to a nine-year contract in June, 2012, around the same time that the Los Angeles Dodgers and Puig reached a deal, Soler’s development in the minor leagues has been slowed by injuries, but it hasn’t softened his projection as an All-Star-caliber right fielder at the highest level.

However, even though Soler has enormous potential and represents a big part of the Cubs’ wave of the future, he shouldn’t be expected to make an immediate impact in the major leagues.

 

Background

Soler emerged as a major-league prospect in 2010, starring for Cuba’s bronze-medal-winning team at the 2010 World Junior Championships, and he defected from the island in 2011 after an initial attempt was unsuccessful. The Cubs were all over Soler once he was cleared to sign by both the U.S. government and Major League Baseball in June, signing the then-20-year-old to a nine-year, $30 million contract that included a franchise-record $6 million signing bonus.

The Cubs assigned Soler to the rookie-level Arizona League in July to get his feet wet, and, as hoped, he quickly proved to be too advanced for the level, posting a .717 OPS with two home runs and eight stolen bases in 14 games. More importantly, he showed minimal rust in his stateside debut after the long layoff.

Soler’s immediate success earned him a promotion to Low-A Peoria in early August, where he continued to open eyes with his advanced all-around play against more advanced competition. While he played in only 20 games before the conclusion of Peoria’s regular season, Soler offered a glimpse of his huge upside by batting .338/.398/.513 with five doubles, three homers, 15 RBI and four stolen bases.

Soler began the 2013 season on fire at High-A Daytona—playing on the same team as top prospect Javier Baez—with a .435 batting average (10-for-23) and two home runs in the team’s first six contests. However, he would then make the headlines for the wrong reason: During Daytona’s game on April 10, Soler was ejected after charging the opposing team’s dugout while wielding a bat. He was subsequently suspended five games and fined an undisclosed amount by the Florida State League.

Soler would spend the next two months at Daytona before suffering a season-ending injury on June 13, when a foul ball off his left leg resulted in a fractured tibia. The organization remained hopeful he’d return before the end of the regular season, but announced in mid-August that he was officially done for the year and would participate in the Arizona Fall League.

After nearly five months on the shelf recovering from the injury, Soler finally returned to action in the Arizona Fall League playing for the Mesa Solar Sox. His time off was evident while playing against the league’s impressive crop of top-ranked prospects, as Soler appeared rusty and struggled with consistency on all sides of the ball.

Overall, he finished his AFL campaign with a .271/.311/.376 batting line, one home run, 14 RBI and 21/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 90 plate appearances. While he didn’t exactly make up for the lost time with a standout, bounce-back fall, Soler proved that he had fully recovered from the fractured tibia by playing in 20 games.

The Cubs invited Soler to major league spring training this year, but the team’s need to resolve several outfield-based roster battles led to him appearing in only nine games, usually coming off the bench in the middle to late innings. Still, the 22-year-old managed to post an .808 OPS with a triple and RBI before he was optioned to Double-A Tennessee on March 12.

Soler’s campaign at Tennessee this year began inauspiciously, as he roped a double in his first at-bat but aggravated a hamstring injury running to second base. He underwent an MRI the following day that confirmed a hamstring strain. Soler has been rehabbing and training at the team’s facility in Mesa, Arizona, according to general manager Jed Hoyer (via The Associated Press), and “the reports have been good.” Hoyer hopes Soler will soon be able to rejoin Tennessee.

 

Scouting Report

At 6’4”, 215 pounds, Soler is a physically strong right-handed hitter with a mature frame that requires little projection. The ball absolutely jumps off his bat thanks to blinding bat speed and an explosive swing, and he’s able to get the barrel on more pitches than he probably should with excellent plate coverage. Meanwhile, his extension and lift after contact generates exceptional backspin carry and suggests the potential for multiple 20-plus home runs in his prime.

However, Soler’s swing can be rushed and choppy at times due to a hitch at the height of his load before initiating his weight transfer. While the issue didn’t hinder his success in the low minors, a testament to Soler’s enormous strength and explosive athleticism, it will need to be ironed out as he moves up the ladder and faces more advanced pitching.

Soler’s approach has been better than expected as a professional, and he’s demonstrated the ability to hit when behind in the count. Based on his 44/27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 325 career plate appearances at full-season levels, Soler’s game will likely feature a modest amount of swing-and-miss, but not enough to question his offensive ceiling.

The 22-year-old’s greatest weakness is his fringy pitch recognition, especially in regard to secondary offerings. Soler struggles to pick up spin out of the pitcher’s hand and at times appears to be guessing at the plate, often chasing pitches well out of the strike zone in a favorable count.

Soler moves well in the outfield in spite of his muscular build, but he’ll likely lose a step or two with physical maturation. However, even if his run tool grades as a 45 or 50 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) later in his career, Soler should still cover plenty of ground with his long, gliding strides. Lastly, Soler’s plus arm strength is a perfect fit in right field at the major league level.

Beyond his physical tools, Soler’s makeup has raised several red flags over the past two seasons. In addition to the previously mentioned bat-wielding incident, Soler was also benched during a game in late April 2013 after he twice failed to run hard.

When I saw Soler play in last year’s Arizona Fall League, there were multiple instances when he clearly chose not to run full speed after putting a ball in play. He did the same thing on a few dropped third strikes. In my opinion, he looked like a guy getting paid big league bucks who believes he should be in the major leagues, which was disconcerting considering he obviously has several developmental hurdles to clear before getting the call.

 

Developmental Timeline

Soler will return to Double-A Tennessee once he’s cleared medically, and he’ll likely spend most, if not all, the season at the level. For the Cubs, it’s more important that the 22-year-old—especially after playing only parts of the last two seasons—receive everyday at-bats against quality, Southern League pitching this season rather than rush his development and try to force success in the major leagues.

If the Cubs decide to promote Soler later this season—which is entirely possible considering he’s already on the team’s 40-man roster—it will be because he’s earned it. It will also help his chances if both Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are already in the major leagues, as the organization has made an attempt in previous years to overlap the developmental timelines of all three players.

Yet, the Cubs don’t have an obvious incentive to rush him up the ladder this season, or any of their top-ranked prospects for that matter.

Soler should take over as the team’s everyday right fielder when he arrives (which should be for good), which should happen during the first half of the 2015 season. If he comes close to reaching his offensive ceiling, Soler should offer All-Star-caliber production in his prime seasons, batting .270-plus with roughly 25 home runs and double-digit stolen bases from the heart of the Cubs’ lineup. However, that’s a best-case scenario, as there’s still a sizeable gap between Soler’s present ability and ultimate potential.

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Will Manny Machado Pick Up Where He Left off in Stellar 2013?

Manny Machado is back.

The Baltimore Orioles are expected to activate the 21-year-old third baseman before the series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. With Tuesday’s game being postponed because of rain, it’s expected that Machado will make his season debut on Wednesday.

Machado suffered an ugly, season-ending knee injury last September, and the Orioles were understandably cautious with his rehab this spring following offseason surgery. He might have been ready earlier in the season if not for a minor setback experienced while running the bases, but his recent three-game rehab stint with High-A Frederick suggests Machado is ready to pick up where he left off in 2013.

 

Machado was assigned to Frederick for the team’s weekend series, after playing several games in extended spring training, and made an immediate impact by going 8-for-12 with four doubles and a triple. The 21-year-old convinced the organization he was ready to be activated following Sunday’s game, when he went 4-for-4 with three runs scored, a pair of doubles and RBI, walk and stolen base.

Headed into Baltimore’s contest on Sunday against the Kansas City Royals, manager Buck Showalter discussed the timetable for Machado’s activation, via Jeff Seidel of MLB.com. “We’ll see where we are at the end of [Sunday],” said Showalter. “I think the biggest part of that equation is what Manny thinks. We’re a lot closer than we were.”

Well, apparently both Machado and the Orioles believe he’s ready.

In 2013, his first full season in the major leagues, Machado batted .283/.314/.432 with 51 doubles and 14 home runs in 710 plate appearances. He also scored 88 runs, stole six bases and collected 71 RBI prior to his injury.

Following the season, Machado was honored with the Rawlings Platinum Glove as the best defensive player in the American League after ranking first in both ultimate zone rating (31.2) and defensive runs saved (35), per FanGraphs. Machado also paced all third basemen with at least 1,000 innings at the position in both categories.

Overall, Machado’s 6.2 WAR, according to FanGraphs, ranked 10th among all position players across both leagues. 

Now, with Machado fully healthy and ready to rejoin the Orioles, it’s seemingly only a matter of time until he adds to his already impressive major-league resume.

The PECOTA, Oliver and Steamer projection models all take into account Machado’s missed time this season, but they’re still in agreement that he’ll be roughly a four-win player and bat somewhere in the ballpark of .270 with 15 bombs, a bunch of doubles and 60-70 RBI. ZIPS is the only model that projected Machado’s 2014 performance based on a full season, and, in my opinion, offers a realistic idea of what to expect from the 21-year-old this season should he stay healthy. Basically, each of the models project Machado to be the same caliber of player he was prior to the injury and despite his late start this season.

Meanwhile, the Orioles undoubtedly are thrilled to have Machado back in the lineup, especially in the wake of Chris Davis landing on the disabled list with an oblique strain. Through the first 24 games, the Orioles’ third basemen—Jonathan Schoop and Ryan Flaherty—rank 14th in the American League with a .269 wOBA and last in OPS (.597), per FanGraphs. Defensively, the Orioles’ trio of options at the hot corner collectively has cost the team 11 runs.

For all those reasons, Machado’s scheduled season debut couldn’t come at a better time. And so long as he stays healthy, the 21-year-old phenom seems destined to build on his outstanding 2013 campaign to emerge as one of the premier all-around players in the American League.

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Introducing MLB’s Newest out-of-Nowhere Success Story

Every season features players who take nontraditional, roundabout paths to unexpected success in the major leagues.

Last year it was the Atlanta Braves’ Evan Gattis. This year, it’s Chris Colabello of the Minnesota Twins.

Through the first month of the season, the 30-year-old Colabello is batting .308/.351/.505 with nine doubles, three home runs and 27 RBI.

Colabello went undrafted out of Massachusetts’ Assumption College and signed a contract in 2005 with the Worcester Tornadoes of the Can-Am Independent League. Other than a half-season stint with Nashua (another team in the league), Colabello spent the next seven years with Worcester and batted .317/.390/.514 with 166 doubles, 86 home runs and 420 RBI in 583 games.

In 2011, his final season playing in the Can-Am league, Colabello set career highs with a .348 batting average, 1.010 OPS and 20 home runs in 412 plate appearances. The then-27-year-old’s performance earned him Independent League Player of the Year honors by Baseball America, as well as a contract with the Minnesota Twins.

Colabello was assigned directly to Double-A New Britain in 2012, where he feasted on Eastern League pitching for the duration of the season. In addition to batting .284 with a .358 on-base percentage in 561 plate appearances, Colabello led the league with 37 doubles, ranked second in RBI (98), fourth in runs scored (78) and was tied for fourth in home runs (19). He also amassed 40 multi-hit games and 21 multi-RBI games and was the runner-up for the Eastern League MVP award.

However, it wasn’t until the 2013 World Baseball Classic that Colabello made himself known to a more national audience. Serving as the cleanup hitter for upstart Team Italy, he batted .333 with a pair of home runs and seven RBI in five WBC games.

Colabello’s strong showing against international competition ultimately earned him an invitation to major league camp the following spring. But despite posting an .873 OPS with four RBI in 10 games, he was reassigned to Triple-A Rochester to begin the 2013 season.

He didn’t stay there long, though; on May 22, 2013, the Twins purchased the contract of Colabello, 29 at the time, from Rochester after placing Trevor Plouffe on the seven-day disabled list with a concussion.

Unfortunately, Colabello’s long-awaited debut in the major leagues wasn’t pretty, as he collected just one hit and struck out six times in 11 at-bats. On May 29, the Twins optioned Colabello back to Rochester, but he returned the following day when Plouffe was placed back on the disabled list, this time with a calf injury.

Colabello shuffled between Rochester and Minnesota a few more times before joining the Twins for good on July 19. From that point forward, Colabello batted .201 with seven home runs and 17 RBI in 48 games. Overall, the rookie posted a disappointing .631 OPS and 58/20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 55 games.

Though he struggled during his time with the Twins, Colabello’s .352/.427/.639 batting line, 24 home runs and 76 RBI in 391 plate appearances at Rochester earned him recognition as the International League MVP and Baseball America’s Triple-A Player of the Year.

With the Twins anticipating a lack of 40-man roster flexibility in 2014, and Colabello without a guaranteed spot on the team’s Opening Day roster, they presented him with an opportunity to play for the LG Lions in the Korean league for a guaranteed $1 million contract.

However, Colabello declined the offer, deciding that he wasn’t ready to give up his major-league aspirations.

“I don’t think it was that hard [of a decision],” he said, via Phil Rogers of MLB.com. “My heart never went that way. I’ve followed my heart my whole life. I use my head too, but I follow my heart. … It has never steered me wrong.”

Well, it now goes without saying that Colabello made the right choice.

The 30-year-old was arguably the Twins’ top hitter this spring, as he locked up a spot on the active roster by batting .349/.462/.512 with five extra-base hits and eight RBI in 23 games.

Colabello continued to rake through the first week of the regular season, collecting a hit in each of the Twins’ first seven games while batting .370/.414/.630 with four doubles, one home run and 11 RBI. His impressive start resulted in AL Player of the Week honors.

Through 23 games this season, Colabello is batting .308/.351/.505 with nine doubles and three home runs. He already broke the team’s two-decade record for RBI in the season’s first month with 27, overtaking Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett’s 26 in 1994.

“It’s quite an honor,” Colabello said, via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. “You start getting mixed in with names like that and you realize how special this game is and how special this opportunity to be here is. It’s certainly something I’ll remember for a long time.”

More importantly, he’s a major reason the Twins are one game above .500 (12-11) with an offense that ranks best in the AL in on-base percentage (.353), third in runs scored (127) and fifth in OPS (.742).

But can Colabello sustain his terrific opening-month production over the course of a full season? In looking at a few comparable, offensively oriented players from previous years, we see that hot starts never last; however, it doesn’t mean the player will necessarily have a poor season.

Shelton and LaHair both became small-sample-size legends with their torrid Aprils, but their high strikeout-to-walk ratios and BABIPs made it impossible for either player to sustain that level of production for a full season. If we compare their numbers with Colabello’s, we see the same glaring trends: poor strikeout-to-walk ratio and BABIP-driven batting average.

In terms of each player’s respective career trajectory following that season, LaHair—he actually made the 2012 NL All-Star team—spent the 2013 season playing overseas, and the 30-year-old now plays for the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate. Shelton, on the other hand, has been out of baseball since 2010.

Unfortunately, it’s easy to see Colabello’s career going down the same dreaded path given his lack of a defensive home. His natural position is first base, but it’s not as though he’ll ever play there over Joe Mauer. Therefore, the Twins have worked Colabello’s bat into the lineup elsewhere this season, giving him eight games at designated hitter and 12 in right field. The only problem is that Colabello is not an outfielder; in fact, his defense at the position has already cost the Twins six runs, according to FanGraphs.

Dan Cook of CBS Minnesota seems to agree with this assessment, though I’m sure neither of us is rooting to be correct:

There’s no question that he’s limited by the lack of a natural defensive position. His best spot, first base, is currently occupied by $23 million. And his BABIP is a sky-high .397. So even if the Twins are able to stay creative and get him at-bats, his hitting numbers should normalize a bit.

Even if the Twins continue to find him regular at-bats, Colabello’s production is going to even out. That being said, the 30-year-old should still put up similar numbers as some of the other second-tier corner players in the American League, batting in the .250 range with roughly 20 home runs. However, if Colabello cools off dramatically and the Twins need a roster spot, don’t be surprised if he suddenly becomes the odd man out.

Colabello is a great story, but definitely not a late-blooming star.

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Yordano Ventura’s Improved Curveball Could Be Next Step in His Ace Evolution

Yordano Ventura will have many great starts in his career, but his outing on Friday night against the Baltimore Orioles is one he’ll never forget.

The 22-year-old rookie turned in his finest performance to date against one of the top offenses in the American League, striking out a career-high eight batters over eight shutout innings en route to a 5-0 Royals win. It marked the first time Ventura has worked eight innings in a start, as he allowed seven hits, two walks and hit a batter while throwing a career-high 113 pitches.

“I think that’s as good as I’ve seen him,” Royals manager Ned Yost said, via the Chicago Tribune. “He had everything going tonight. I mean good fastball, his curve ball, that was probably the most consistent curveball he’s had all year, and a great changeup. He just pitched a great game.”

Despite his success, Ventura’s outing wasn’t as clean as his line suggests; he actually pitched with runners on base in every inning.

He drilled Nelson Cruz with a fastball in the first inning, and surrendered a pair of singles to open the second. He yielded a leadoff single in the third inning, a walk and single in the following frame, and then another leadoff knock in the fifth.

The right-hander allowed a two-out single in the sixth, two-out walk in the seventh and two-out single in the eighth. However, Ventura was able to get strikeouts when he needed them most and ultimately kept the Orioles off the board.

Specifically, Ventura’s ability to execute his curveball Friday night was a revelation compared to his other starts this season—especially his previous outing in which he allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks in four innings. Ventura’s curveball has always lagged behind his dynamic fastball-changeup combination, and it had been his least effective offering this season.

However, that wasn’t the case against the Orioles.

Ventura’s command of his curveball was the best it’s been since his arrival in the major leagues last season, as he posted a career-best 72.7 percent strike rate (via Brooks Baseball) and recorded five of his eight strikeouts with the pitch in eight innings. His victims were Ryan Flaherty, David Lough (twice), Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop.

Ventura’s release point was consistent throughout the game, which in turn allowed him to generate the tight rotation and sharp, downward break necessary to generate whiffs. He also used his curveball to generate five ground-ball outs.

Ventura’s changeup took a backseat to his suddenly improved breaking ball, but he was still effective with the offering and kept the Orioles off balance by using it aggressively in fastball counts and at times on the first pitch of a plate appearance. Meanwhile, the 22-year-old flame-hrower’s fastball sat comfortably in the high 90s (as usual), topping out at 99 mph, and produced seven swinging strikes and a pair of strikeouts.

With a consistent and effective third pitch at his disposal, there’s no telling how good Ventura will be. He’s already proven to one of baseball’s premier young pitchers this season, and developing a more complete and refined arsenal could make him one of the game’s best in short order.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Prospects Update: Hottest, Coldest Hitters at Every Minor League Level

The 2014 Minor League Baseball season began last Thursday, and there already have been countless standout performances by top prospects across all four full-season levels.

For those familiar with our weekly hot/cold lists that appeared on Prospect Pipeline during the previous two seasons, you’ll be happy to know that we’ll be doing the same thing this year.

With most teams having played roughly three-five games since Thursday, it’s important to acknowledge the role of small sample sizes when evaluating players’ statistics. However, it’s impossible to ignore there’s still a large contingent of young hitters that have either opened the season on a tear or struggled to get things going at the dish.

Here are at the hottest and coldest hitters at every minor league level to begin the 2014 season.

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