Kuzul

It’s been an eventful week for some of baseball’s top prospects. For others, not so much. 

Xander Bogaerts has been the star everyone expected through the first week of the season, batting .360 through his first seven games, and the 21-year-old shortstop looks like a safe bet to run away with the American League Rookie of the Year Award.

Meanwhile, fellow shortstops Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor are off to similar hot starts in the minor leagues, with Correa batting .471 with eight RBI at High-A Lancaster, and Lindor batting .353 back at Double-A Akron. 

Unfortunately, a pair of top-10 prospects—as determined by Prospect Pipeline’s End-of-Season Top 100 Prospects—are dealing with injuries, as Byron Buxton (wrist sprain) and Addison Russell (hamstring strain) are currently on the seven-day disabled list for their respective Double-A teams.

Here’s a look at how the rest of baseball’s top-ranked prospects fared during the first week of the minor league season.

Begin Slideshow

The Masahiro Tanaka era is under way.

On Friday night, the 25-year-old Japanese pitcher made his highly anticipated Major League debut, taking the mound for the Yankees against the Blue Jays in their home opener.

Well, Tanaka ultimately put a damper on an otherwise exciting night for Blue Jays fans, as the right-hander picked up his first career win behind seven strong innings of two-run ball in which he scattered six hits and recorded eight strikeouts without issuing a walk. 

Even though it wasn’t a particularly clean or efficient outing, Tanaka still showcased his customary high-end combination of pure stuff and command, and he gave baseball fans from around the world an idea of what to expect this season moving forward.

Innings 1-3

Tanaka’s career got off to an inauspicious start, as the first batter of the game, Melky Cabrera, homered to right-center field on a 1-1 changeup that lingered up in the zone.

Yet, the right-hander managed to rebound after Cabrera’s leadoff blast, as he retired Colby Rasmus on a groundout to first base and then struck out both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.

Specifically, Tanaka caught Bautista looking on a 1-2 slider that registered at 86 mph, and then got the next batter, Encarnacion, to flail at the exact same pitch in the exact same count. 

Tanaka ran into trouble in the second inning, allowing two more runs (one earned) on three hits and a costly Mark Teixeira error, and he needed 26 pitches to complete the frame. However, Tanaka once again bounced back and escaped further damage, using his devastating splitter to strike out Cabrera, and then a well-located, backdoor slider to fan Rasmus.

Tanaka began to settle in during the third inning, as he allowed a ringing double to Encarnacion but otherwise breezed through the heart of Toronto’s order. Still, after throwing 58 pitches (40 strikes) through the first three innings, it seemed as though Tanaka might be ticketed for an early exit in his Major League debut.

Innings 4-7

Tanaka was absolutely brilliant on Friday over his final four frames and looked more like the pitcher we all fell in love with during spring training.

The rookie concluded his debut with four consecutive 1-2-3 innings, facing the minimum 12 batters during that span, and, more importantly, he did so by throwing only 39 pitches. Not a single one of those final 12 batters made hard contact against Tanaka, and only three managed to get the ball out of the infield.

The Stuff 

Tanaka’s stuff on Friday night was right in line with what he showed during spring training. The right-hander’s fastball sat comfortably in the low 90s for the duration of his start and topped out at 95.2 mph, according to Brooks Baseball. However, Tanaka’s fastball command was noticeably absent from the onset of the game, so it’s not surprising he induced only one whiff in the 20 swings generated by the pitch. 

Tanaka also showed an advanced feel for both his curveball and slider in the outing, as he found the strike zone with 23 of 34 breaking balls and generated four whiffs out of a total of 13 swings. The right-hander’s slider, which averaged 85.8 mph on the night and registered as high as 88.8 mph, was the more effective of the two pitches, and it showed through his ability to throw it for a strike 65.2 percent of the time (15-of-23).

Lastly, an analysis of Tanaka’s debut wouldn’t be complete without showing some obligatory love for his other-worldly splitter. However, it admittedly was difficult to discern his splitter from his changeup at various points during the game, as even the Brooks Baseball data labeled his splitter as a changeup based on velocity and movement.

Yet, after watching Tanaka’s outings in spring training, we already had an idea prior to his debut that the splitter typically registers in the upper 80s. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that Tanaka’s splitter was categorized as a changeup by Brooks Baseball.

According to their data, the right-hander threw 9-of-12 splitters for a strike on Friday night, with six of those strikes coming as the result of a whiff.

Lasting Impressions

The reason I broke down Tanaka’s start into two parts (innings 1-3 and 4-7) is because the right-hander was a completely different pitcher during the second half of the outing.

Tanaka failed to establish his fastball early in the game, starting eight of the first 11 Blue Jays he faced with a secondary offering. Even when Tanaka got ahead with a first-pitch strike he struggled to efficiently build the count in his favor, and at times it seemed as though he was more interested in using his curveball and slider to toy with opposing hitters and pick at the edges of the strike zone. As a result, Tanaka’s fastball command was inconsistent over the first three innings, with the right-hander either missing off or over the plate numerous times.

Whether it was related to his nerves or suddenly having to cope with the fact that he allowed a home run to the first batter of his career, Tanaka’s pace on the mound was noticeably off early in the game—especially when compared to his pace in spring training, when he basically would get the ball, get on the rubber and let it rip—as everything he did seemed unnecessarily deliberate and prevented him from establishing a rhythm. 

However, as I mentioned earlier, the right-hander eventually settled in and looked like his spring self in his final four innings.

Tanaka’s ability to recover from the shaky start and make adjustments throughout the game impressed manager Joe Girardi, via David Waldstein of The New York Times: “It’s one thing to get yourself back on track in spring training. But this opening day, huge crowd, all the excitement from the Toronto fans. And he was able to fix his mistakes early on, and that’s the sign of a mature pitcher.”

Besides establishing a healthier and quicker pace on the mound, Tanaka also turned to his fastball more often, using the pitch to aggressively attack right- and left-handed batters to both sides of the plate. The adjustment to his game plan in turn allowed Tanaka to sequence his splitter and slider more effectively as the game unfolded, and he ultimately retired the final 12 batters he faced.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Tanaka’s debut on Friday was his ability to throw a first-pitch strike with essentially his entire arsenal. Specifically, he notched a strike with his first pitch against 18 of the 27 batters faced over seven innings; nine of those pitches were fastballs, five were show-me curveballs and four were sliders.

With his debut jitters out of the way and a win under his belt, Tanaka should be more effective out of the gate in his next start. Granted the 25-year-old was very impressive overall and exhibited tremendous poise and resiliency as the game unfolded, but there were definitely aspects of his performance, such as his tentative approach with the fastball in the early innings, that can be improved.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2014 Minor League Baseball season began on Thursday, with a total 54 games played by teams representing all four full-season levels.

As expected, the day featured countless impressive performances by top-ranked prospects, both hitters and pitchers, with many players making an immediate impact at a new, more challenging level.

So, which players had the best Opening Day, you ask?

Well, after sifting through endless box scores, I’ve put together a list of the 10 most impressive performances from Thursday, with an emphasis on prospects that appeared in my recent top 100 rankings.

Here are the 10 MLB prospects who starred on Minor League Opening Day.

Begin Slideshow

When we evaluate, project and rank prospects, we are essentially hyping them up.

Every player that reaches the major leagues is a special talent and worthy of a degree of excitement, but when a highly touted prospect races through the minor leagues and draws rave reviews along the way, he quickly becomes a huge deal.

Many of these promising young players are given a chance to prove they belong at the highest level every year, and when they fail to meet what are usually lofty expectations, they are quickly labeled as “overhyped.” However, it’s important to keep in mind that prospects have age on their side and hopefully ample opportunities to stick in the major leagues. Therefore, it’s more appropriate to reflect on their former hype as prospects years down the line.

With being said, here are the five most overhyped young players in Major League Baseball.

*All stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

*All spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com.

Begin Slideshow

The St. Louis Cardinals have a reputation for getting the most out of their players, especially rookies.

Last year the team’s World Series roster was comprised of 18 homegrown players (those drafted or signed by the organization), including six rookie pitchers who combined to post a 2.74 ERA with 451 strikeouts in 443.1 innings during the regular season (6.5 fWAR). Of those 18 players, five were holdovers from the Cardinals’ 2011 World Series-winning team. 

Even after graduating impact prospects such as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Michael Wacha to the major leagues, the organization is expected to receive significant contributions from more young players this season, namely Carlos Martinez and Kolten Wong. 

Both Martinez and Wong received a taste of the major leagues in late 2013, but neither player truly capitalized on his playing time and at times appeared overexposed in their respective roles. However, both players are now considered locks for the Opening Day roster after strong performances in spring training, which means we’ll soon find out what they’re capable of, individually and collectively, over a full season in the major leagues.

Kolten Wong

After trading third baseman David Freese during the offseason and shifting Matt Carpenter to the hot corner, rookie Kolten Wong entered spring training as the favorite to become the team’s Opening Day second baseman.

However, the organization couldn’t afford to take any chances after Wong batted .153/.194/.169 in 62 plate appearances last year in the major leagues, and so it signed veteran infielder Mark Ellis as a safety net. Basically, the Cardinals put Wong in a situation where the position would be his to lose.

Wong got off to a slow start this spring, going hitless through his first five games, which seemingly concerned everyone but manager Mike Matheny, per Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

I think we’d all rather get off to a good start than a bad one. But I think Kolten is going to be one of those guys that just trusts himself and his ability and not get too high or too low. I think there’s a lot to be seen about how he handles it when things don’t go his way. We’re constantly watching that as well with all these guys.

He’s a talented player and we’ll continue to give him some at-bats and some opportunities out there, and he’s going to be just fine. He looks good this spring.

Since then, Wong has been playing like a guy who wants the Opening Day gig, as he’s batting .500 (18-for-36) with five doubles, two home runs and nine RBI in his last 12 games. Overall, the 23-year-old is batting .391/.451/.674 through 17 games.

Wong won’t come close to matching Matt Carpenter’s value last season at second base (7.0 WAR), but the Cardinals still stand to improve by employing him at the keystone and Carpenter at third.

David Freese had a dismal 0.2 WAR last season in 138 games as the Cardinals third baseman, but he was a four-win player the previous year. Carpenter will lose value offensively this season moving to the hot corner and projects for a 4.8 WAR year, per Oliver, and the same model calls for a 2.4 WAR season from Wong.

Therefore, the Cardinals, in theory, should be no worse off with Carpenter and Wong compared to Carpenter and Freese. It also leaves room for both players to overachieve in future seasons—as so many young Cardinal players tend to do—which is very, very possible considering their ages (28 and 23, respectively) and relative lack of professional experience. 

The aforementioned projection for Wong suggests he’ll bat .255/.307/.364 with 68 runs, 37 extra-base hits (nine home runs) and 18 stolen bases in 600 plate appearances. However, if he receives most of his at-bats against right-handed pitching (with Ellis getting playing time against lefties), then the triple-slash line should be better than expected, especially in the batting average and on-base percentage departments.  

Carlos Martinez 

Carlos Martinez struggled to find a role following his big league debut on May 3, as he was used sparingly out of the bullpen and bounced between the minor and major leagues as the organization pondered how to best utilize the 22-year-old.

By the end of the regular season, though, the flame-throwing right-hander emerged as manager Mike Matheny‘s preferred option in the late innings and ultimately served as the team’s setup man throughout the postseason.

The decision to use Martinez as a starter shouldn’t come as a surprise. Since entering the Cardinals system in 2010, the right-hander has pitched in 68 minor league games and started all but one of them. During that span, he posted a 2.69 ERA with 340 strikeouts and a 2.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 327.2 innings.

Martinez did everything in his power this spring to win a spot in the starting rotation, as he easily was the most impressive of the team’s starters and arguably one of the best across the league. Making four starts on the spring, the 22-year-old registered a 1.76 ERA with nine strikeouts in 15.1 innings.

However, the Cardinals ultimately elected to go with Joe Kelly as their fifth starter based on his success the previous year and overall experience, which means that Martinez, in spite of his eye-opening performance this spring, will begin the season in the bullpen.

Martinez offered a glimpse of his potential in the role last October, when he registered a 3.55 ERA and .167 opponents’ batting average with three walks and 11 strikeouts in 12.2 innings spanning the Cardinals’ three playoff series.

As I highlighted in a previous article, Martinez’s overwhelming success during the postseason stemmed from two adjustments: moving toward the first-base side of the rubber and lowering his arm angle slightly. The moves enabled the right-hander to locate and execute his sinker-slider combination more consistently—a trend that has carried over into the spring. 

Though he won’t open the season in the Cardinals rotation, Martinez was stretched out enough this spring that he’ll be able to assume a spot should a member of the staff suffer an injury. And if that occurs, I doubt the organization will mind offering Martinez a legitimate audition as a big league starter.

*All stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

*All videos courtesy of MLB.com (MLB Advanced Media).

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Before we embark on the endeavor of ranking the top 25 fantasy prospects to target for the 2014 season, let’s get one thing straight up-front: This is based on potential and projected impact for the 2014 season—and the 2014 season alone.

Oh, and before we forget, we better mention this list is all—and only—about 2014.

Got all that? Now then, moving on.

For many prospects who have either only just gotten their feet wet in the majors or who have yet to even dip their big toe in but at least have their swimming trunks on, their fantasy value for the upcoming season is as much about opportunity as it is about talent.

In other words, no matter how talented a youngster is, he also has to be both developmentally ready and in a place on his club’s depth chart to contribute in order to be among the best of the best for 2014. That’s why, on the pages to follow, you’ll find the top 25 fantasy prospects have ratings in both “talent” and “opportunity” (scale out of 10).

As an example, take Byron Buxton. The consensus top prospect in baseball, he would earn a 10 in talent but merely a five in opportunity, since he’s yet to play above A-ball and is unlikely to debut until August or September—and even that’s only if everything goes just right for him. Hence, Buxton isn’t on this list and didn’t come all that close, frankly.

What’s more, to better represent the fantasy factor here, also included are the standard 5×5 categories that a prospect could be best expected to contribute in for this upcoming season. Plus, each player write-up comes complete with his potential 2014 fantasy peak role to help you better grasp how he might fit into your roster if it all clicks just so.

It’s also worth pointing out that to be eligible as a prospect for these purposes, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 30 appearances. (Service time, however, was not considered.) That means you will not see the likes of Christian Yelich, Khris Davis or Corey Dickerson among the hitters or Michael Wacha, Danny Salazar and Sonny Gray among the pitchers. They all played a little too much in 2013 to remain prospects in 2014.

Now that everything is clear about how we compiled this ranking of the top 25 fantasy prospects to target for this season only—again, that’s solely 2014—it’s time to count ’em down.

These rankings are based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard 5×5 rotisserie scoring for hitters (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB) and pitchers (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV).

To be eligible as a prospect, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 30 appearances. Service time was not considered. And to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2013 or be in line to start there in 2014.

For another prospect-related fantasy piece, here’s a rundown of a batch of youngsters whose fantasy value is better or worse than their real-life value.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

Begin Slideshow

With so many prospects in big league camp, it’s important that all stats be analyzed within context. At the same time, it’s hard not to get excited when a prospect makes an immediate impact against superior competition.

Since the start of Cactus and Grapefruit League games, more and more top-ranked prospects have opened eyes with their performances in spite of limited playing time. However, for those prospects yet to produce in major league camp, their time to right the ship is fading quickly as teams continue to trim their rosters in anticipation of Opening Day.

Here’s our look at the latest stock movements for some of baseball’s premier prospects.

Stock Up

Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

Spring Training Stats: .394 (13-for-33), 8 R, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 7 K (12 G)

Wong has been on an absolute tear as of late. After going 0-for-10 through his first five spring games, the 23-year-old second baseman has been playing like a guy who deserves a starting spot, batting .565 (13-for-23) with six runs, six extra-base hits and eight RBI.

Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers

Spring Training Stats: .415 (17-for-41), 6 2B, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, 2 BB, 3 K (13 G)

Castellanos has been one of baseball’s more productive hitters this spring, which is about all the Tigers can ask for as the 22-year-old prepares to open the season as the team’s third baseman. Over his last five games, Castellanos is batting .526 (10-for-19) with four doubles, one home run and nine RBI. Say what you want about spring statistics—what he’s done so far is very impressive.

Steven Souza, OF, Washington Nationals

Spring Training Stats: .355 (11-for-31), 8 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, SB, 4 BB, 4 K (17 G)

Souza doesn’t get the love he deserves due to his age (24), but the outfielder has the potential to be a solid everyday outfielder in the major leagues. Although he was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse on Monday, Souza made sure to finish his spring campaign in style by going 3-for-3 with a triple, two home runs and three RBI on Sunday against the Astros.

Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Spring Training Stats: 10 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (3 G)

Martinez is one of several young pitchers battling for the final spot in the Cardinals’ Opening Day rotation, and there’s no denying that the electric right-hander has made a very strong case after just three starts. In his latest outing, Martinez, 22, dominated the Mets for the second time this spring, allowing only two hits and a walk with three strikeouts over four scoreless frames.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Spring Training Stats: .303 (10-for-33), 10 R, 2 2B, 9 SB, 6 BB, 4 K (12 G)

Hamilton has been an ongoing surprise this spring as he prepares to take over as the Reds’ Opening Day center fielder and leadoff hitter. The 23-year-old has shown an improved ability to consistently reach base while minimizing strikeouts, and we were already well aware of his base-stealing prowess.

Reds manager Bryan Price is amazed on a daily basis with Hamilton’s electric play (h/t to John Fay of Cincinnati.com):

“We get to see it every day – every play at first base, every bunt, every ground ball is bang-bang. Every base hit to center is a possible double based on how aggressively the center fielder goes after the ball. It’s really exciting to watch.”

Nick Williams, OF, Texas Rangers

Spring Training Stats: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Nick Williams, who in my opinion is one of the more gifted hitters in the low minors, enjoyed a memorable spring debut on Sunday, going 2-for-2 with a pair of game-tying home runs. First, the 20-year-old outfielder hit a two-run shot in the top of the seventh inning with the Rangers trailing the A’s, 13-11. Then, in the top of the ninth, Williams smoked a line drive—on a pitch located just above his shoe tops—to straightaway right field to tie the game at 15.

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Miami Marlins

Spring Training Stats: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (3 G)

Heaney made a solid case to break camp in the Marlins’ Opening Day rotation, but given the presence of guys like Tom Koehler, Brad Hand and Kevin Slowey, it’s not surprising that the 22-year-old was reassigned to minor league camp on Monday. In his final spring outing on March 13 against the Cardinals, the talented left-hander allowed one hit and a walk against one strikeout over three scoreless innings.

Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs

Spring Training Stats: .281 (9-for-32), 2 2B, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 10 K (11 G) 

Baez continues to make the most of his playing time as Starlin Castro slowly recovers from a hamstring injury, as he’s now hit safely in six of the 10 games in which he’s appeared. While he’s played every game at shortstop so far, manager Rick Renteria stated that the 21-year-old phenom should see time at second base starting this week.

Yordano Ventura, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Spring Training Stats: 15.1 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, BB, 15 K (4 G)

Ventura arguably has been Kansas City’s most impressive starter this spring, showcasing his usual triple-digit velocity, but also an ever improving feel for pitching. Though he’s been sharp in each of his last two outings, the 22-year-old right-hander was flat-out dominant on Monday night against the Rangers, as he scattered four hits and struck out six over six scoreless frames. Following the game, Ventura was officially named to the Royals’ rotation, penciled in at the No. 3 spot.

An AL scout had this to say to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman about Ventura’s stellar arm:

Stock Down

Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers

Spring Training Stats: 0-for-6, 5 K (1 G) 

Like teammate Nick Williams, Gallo also made his spring debut on Saturday in the Rangers’ 16-15 win over the A’s. However, in a game that featured 31 total runs and on 34 hits, the left-handed slugger was 0-for-6 with five strikeouts, otherwise known as the platinum sombrero.

Allen Webster, RHP, Boston Red Sox

Spring Training Stats: 12 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 7 BB, 8 K (4 G)

Webster certainly has the pure stuff to be effective as a starter in the major leagues, but his overall command and consistency still leaves something to be desired, evidenced by his shaky performance in three of four starts this spring. The 24-year-old right-hander will likely spend most of the year at Triple-A Pawtucket and inevitably be called on to start at times later in the season, but that plan could change if the organization chooses to utilize him in a bullpen role.

Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox

Spring Training Stats: .182 (6-for-33), 2 R, 2 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 9 K (11 G)

Bradley is trying to break camp with the Red Sox for the second consecutive year. However, after batting .419 in 28 games last spring, the 23-year-old outfielder has mustered only six hits in 33 at-bats this year while striking out in eight different games. More significantly, Bradley’s struggles have opened the door for Grady Sizemore, who has batted .381 through seven games. 

Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies

Spring Training Stats: 6.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (3 G) 

Gray was knocked around in his third spring appearance on Thursday night against the A’s, allowing three earned runs on five hits and a walk while failing to complete three innings. In the outing, the 22-year-old right-hander worked mostly in the low 90s, touching 95 mph, and lacked the sharp slider he showcased in previous appearances. Yet, this kind of outing is pretty standard for a pitcher participating in his first major league camp.

Zach Lee, RHP, Los Angeles

Spring Training Stats: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (2 G)

Lee made his spring debut on March 7 against the Rangers, throwing two scoreless innings with one strikeout. However, the 22-year-old right-hander struggled with his command in his follow-up outing last Wednesday, allowing three earned runs on three hits and two walks in 2.2 frames against the Diamondbacks. Still, it’s worth noting that Lee fanned four batters on the day.

*All stats courtesy of MLB.com and reflect games through March 17, 2014.

*All videos courtesy of MLB.com/MLB Advanced Media.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The future of baseball has been on display this spring, with countless top-ranked prospects opening eyes with their performances on a daily basis.

However, with the start of the regular season around the corner, teams have started to trim their rosters by optioning prospects to a specific level or reassigning them to minor league spring training. This past week, Byron Buxton, Oscar Taveras and Francisco Lindor were the biggest names among prospects to be cut from big league camp.

The good news is that this spring probably won’t be the last time this year we see these players in a major league uniform. And with that, here are my predictions for baseball’s top 10 prospects in 2014.

Begin Slideshow

Fantasy baseball is a made-up game that takes into account the real-life performances of players on the field. Just because fantasy is based on reality, though, doesn’t mean the two always line up just so—especially when it comes to prospects.

After all, value on a baseball diamond can be a whole lot different than value on a fantasy roster, and owners in keeper and dynasty leagues deserve to know the difference.

In recent weeks, five separate reputable industry sources have released their top 100 prospects: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Bleacher Report, ESPN.com (subscription required) and MLB.com.

As part of a special project to point out certain prospects who are better or worse in fantasy compared to reality, we tracked those top 100s—well, really four top 100s and one top 101, to be exact—and then dissected them to determine which prospects appeared in all five of the rankings.

It turns out, there are 69 consensus top-100 prospects who made the cut in each.

Not every prospect from that batch neatly fits into either category—better in fantasy or better in reality—but we’ve extracted the top young talents who do.

Here’s a look at 18 prospects, along with their average, highest and lowest ranking from the five top 100s, as well as an ETA and a verdict on whether each profiles better in fantasy or reality.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference.

Fantasy value is based on standard 5×5 scoring for hitters (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB) and pitchers (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV).

Begin Slideshow

Every year we try to convince ourselves that spring statistics mean something, using a player’s small sample of production in March to project his performance over a full season in the major leagues. It’s a fun exercise after the long, boring offseason, but deep down inside, we know it’s not a true predictor for future success.

However, all the cautionary tales and disclaimers associated with spring statistics are blatantly disregarded when the player is a highly touted prospect.

When projecting a player’s future production, we generally look at his numbers from previous years to determine the areas of his game with the most room for improvement moving forward. Yet because most prospects are yet to even reach the major leagues, spring training offers a unique opportunity to evaluate them against proven big leaguers in a more realistic context.

That leaves us with one question: Can a prospect’s breakout performance in spring training actually be used to project his future success and career trajectory?

In order to get to the bottom of the age-old question, I focused my research and analysis on hitters specifically.

Pitchers typically use the spring to build arm strength and stretch out their workload in preparation for the regular season. It’s also the only time they can iron out mechanical issues or work on a specific pitch in a game setting without it potentially costing the team a loss.

Hitters, on the other hand, are simply trying to get their timing down in the spring and get comfortable at the plate. Sure, guys will try out different things in games, whether it’s employing a quieter load or starting their hands in a different position; however, it’s usually because they’ve already done the necessary prep work during batting practice or in the cage.

MLB.com is the only place to find spring training statistics from previous years, though their records only go back as far as 2006. Therefore, I decided to use a specific five-year range, from 2006-10, for the study to determine whether there’s any correlation between a prospect’s performance in spring training and the major leagues.

And finally, due to the variance in playing time among prospects in major league camp, I only considered players who received at least 20 at-bats, posted a 1.000-plus OPS during that span and own a career WAR (per FanGraphs) of at least five.

Here’s what I found.

2006

Four players fit my aforementioned spring criteria in 2006, and each became at least a league-average regular at their respective positions, with two players even making an All-Star team.

However, only one of the 2006 spring standouts, James Loney, subsequently debuted in the major leagues during the regular season—though retained rookie status for the following year—as the other players had already received a taste of the The Show during previous years.

Loney broke camp with the Dodgers in 2006 and batted .284/.342/.559 in 48 games without exhausting his rookie eligibility. The following season was easily the best of his tenure in the major leagues, as the 23-year-old posted still-career highs with a .331 batting average, .919 OPS and 15 home runs despite playing in only 96 games.

As for Ryan Zimmerman? Well, he reached the major leagues in 2005 as a September call-up and made an immediate impact by batting .397/.419/.569 in 62 plate appearances—as a 20-year-old. His torrid spring the following year earned him the gig as the Nationals’ Opening Day third baseman, and he went on to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year thanks to an .822 OPS, 47 doubles, 20 home runs and 110 RBI in 157 games.

2007

The 2007 class had a whopping seven spring standouts reach the major leagues for the first time during the regular season—a group highlighted by a trio of future All-Stars in Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence and Billy Butler.

Hunter Pence’s monster spring led to an early promotion to the major leagues in late April, and the 24-year-old rewarded the organization’s confidence in him by batting .322/.360/.539 with 17 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 108 games en route to a third-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

Though he didn’t make a Pence-like impact following an early season promotion, Butler still turned in a very promising rookie campaign in 2007, even seeing time in left field so as to keep his bat in the lineup. The 21-year-old ultimately appeared in 92 games with the Royals, batting .292/.347/.447 with eight home runs and 52 RBI in 360 plate appearances.

Mark Reynolds also received his first taste of The Show in 2007, as he parlayed a torrid spring in big league camp and similar red-hot start at Double-A Mobile into a mid-May call-up. The 23-year-old showed exactly what he was about over the duration of the regular season, posting an .843 OPS with 20 doubles, 17 home runs and 62 RBI while playing in 111 games. However, the right-handed hitter also fanned 129 times against 37 walks in 414 plate appearances.

And then there’s Josh Hamilton, the No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft who was shrewdly popped by the Reds in the 2007 Rule 5 draft and promptly resuscitated his once-promising career. The 26-year-old’s jaw-dropping spring made the decision easy for the Reds to keep him on the 25-man roster for the regular season, as he batted .292/.368/.554 with 19 home runs in 90 games.

2008

Other than Mike Aviles, who spent parts of six seasons in the Royals’ system before getting a crack at the major leagues in 2008, Evan Longoria was the only prospect to build off his spring success during the regular season—and build he did.

The Rays called up Longoria in mid-April after only seven games at Triple-A Durham, and the 22-year-old quickly emerged as a legitimate superstar in what turned out to be a stellar rookie campaign. Playing in 122 games on the season, Longo posted an .874 OPS with 31 doubles, 27 home runs and 85 RBI in 508 plate appearances. The performance earned him a spot on the AL All-Star team that year, and he was unsurprisingly named the league’s Rookie of the Year following the season while also finishing 11th in the MVP voting.

2009

As you can see, there was only one prospect in 2009 to turn an impressive showing in spring training into a successful rookie campaign in the major leagues: Gerardo Parra.

After thriving in limited opportunities during the spring, Parra, 22 at the time, was called up in mid-May and inserted into the Diamondbacks’ everyday lineup—even if only for his defensive prowess in the outfield. Therefore, Parra’s consistent production over the duration of the season was a pleasant surprise, as he batted .290/.324/.404 with 59 runs scored and 34 extra-base hits while playing in 120 games. He also finished eighth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

2010

And last but not least, we have the loaded 2010 class, which will always be remembered for producing three up-the-middle players and the game’s premier power hitter (and I’m not referring to Ike Davis).

Like James Loney in 2006, Austin Jackson’s stellar showing during spring training resulted in a spot in the Tigers’ Opening Day lineup, and he quickly emerged as one of the game’s best up-and-coming center fielders. Playing in 151 games on the season, the 23-year-old surpassed all expectations at the dish by batting .293/.345/.400 with 103 runs scored, 34 doubles, 10 triples, four home runs and 27 stolen bases while playing in 151 games. And in spite of leading the AL with 170 strikeouts against only 47 walks in 675 plate appearances, Jackson still finished second in the league’s Rookie of the Year voting.

After raking in spring training, Starlin Castro spent roughly a month at Triple-A Iowa before getting the call to join the Cubs in early May. Upon his arrival, the 20-year-old quickly earned the reputation as one of baseball’s more exciting and promising young players, as he batted .300/.347/.408 with 39 extra-base hits (31 doubles) and 10 stolen bases while playing all 125 games at shortstop. Castro’s impressive rookie campaign earned him a fifth-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting after the season.

Ike Davis also reached the major leagues early in the season, as the Mets called up the 23-year-old in late April to serve as the everyday first baseman. Suffice it to say, he responded favorably to the challenge. Davis turned in the best season of his career (at least in hindsight), batting .264/.351/.440 with 33 doubles, 19 home runs and 71 RBI in 147 games, and he also finished seventh in the NL Rookie of the Year vote.

Still going by Mike at that time, now-Giancarlo Stanton was promoted to the major leagues in early June after destroying the Double-A Southern League to the tune of a .313/.442/.729 batting line with 21 home runs in only 53 games. Though he understandably struggled after making the jump directly from Double-A, the 20-year-old man-child showed the baseball world what he’s all about by batting .259/.326/.507 with 21 doubles and 22 home runs in 396 plate appearances spanning 100 games.

Stanton was selected to his first All-Star Game two years later, and he finished the season with the highest slugging percentage (.608) in the major leagues.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com