Kuzul

The New York Mets will be without ace Matt Harvey in 2014 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Luckily, the team still has a host of promising young arms to look forward to in right-handers Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero.

While Wheeler is coming off an impressive rookie campaign, both Syndergaard and Montero are on the verge of reaching the major leagues and expected to debut during the 2014 season.

But how good will the trio actually be? Well, if each player stays healthy and comes close to reaching his respective ceiling, then the Mets should feature one of the best and most exciting starting rotations for the years to come.

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler is obviously the better-known pitcher of the Mets’ trio, as he was regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the minor leagues headed into the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

Wheeler quietly emerged as one of the better rookie pitchers in the major leagues last year following a mid-June debut, registering a 3.42 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 100 innings (17 starts). The right-hander was especially solid in his 12 starts after the All-Star break, posting a 3.38 ERA with 66 hits allowed and 63 strikeouts in 72 innings.

In a recent article, I mentioned that Wheeler should continue to improve this season but that he’s unlikely to emerge as the Mets’ ace this early in his career.

Specifically, I highlighted how Wheeler struggled last year when pitching with one strike; he seemingly was less aggressive in those particular counts, opting to throw something in the zone rather than challenging opposing hitters as he would normally in a zero- or two-strike count.

Plus, learning to throw more quality strikes and avoid deep counts should in theory enable Wheeler to last longer into his starts—as a front-of-the-rotation starter should.

Noah Syndergaard

Acquired by the Mets from the Toronto Blue Jays last offseason as part of the R.A. Dickey deal, Noah Syndergaard took a huge step forward on all fronts in 2013—as many expected he would—posting an impressive 3.06 ERA and 133-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 117.2 innings between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton.

At the latter, the 21-year-old was utterly dominant, as he registered a 3.00 ERA and 69-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54 innings spanning 11 starts.

The 6’6”, 240-pound right-hander is an imposing presence on the mound; he uses his power frame to throw everything on a steep downhill plane and pound the lower portion of the strike zone. Syndergaard’s plus-plus heater sits in the mid- to upper-90s with late, arm-side life, and he frequently flirts with triple digits.

And in spite of his ability to overpower most minor league hitters with sheer velocity, Syndergaard consistently executes his fastball throughout the zone.

Syndergaard’s curveball also has plus-plus potential—manager Terry Collins has already described it as a “hook from hell”—and his command of the pitch improved last season after adding a slider to his already-impressive arsenal.

Lastly, the right-hander throws his changeup with good arm speed and confidence, and it could serve as a third plus-or-better offering at maturity.

Syndergaard has one of the highest ceilings among all pitching prospects, boasting a combination of talent and command that profiles at the front of a big league rotation. Assuming he opens the 2014 season at Triple-A, the right-hander could be ready to debut around midseason—just as Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler did in previous years.

Rafael Montero

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2010 as a 20-year-old, Montero tends to get grouped with Harvey, Wheeler and Syndergaard on account of his immediate success in the minor leagues and quick rise through the Mets system.

After an impressive full-season debut in 2012 across both Class-A levels, Montero, now 23, was equally impressive last year in the high minors. The right-hander began the season at Double-A Binghamton, where he posted a 2.43 ERA (1.88 FIP) and superb 72-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 66.2 innings.

As a result of his strong performance at the more advanced level, Montero was challenged with a midseason promotion to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Though his numbers were slightly inflated pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Montero still held his own with a 3.05 ERA (2.87 FIP) and 78-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88.2 innings. Overall, he posted a 2.78 ERA with 150 strikeouts against 35 walks in 155.1 total innings.

While the undersized right-hander (6’0”, 170 lbs) boasts impressive arm strength and a mature arsenal, his plus command profile is easily his strongest attribute. Montero’s fastball comes in at a deceptive 90-93 mph and generates a surprising amount of swing-and-misses, and he commands the pitch well to both sides of the plate and changes hitters’ eye levels aggressively.

Montero’s curveball and changeup are both serviceable offerings that tend to play up thanks to his feel for sequencing. In order to achieve long-term success in the major leagues, the right-hander will need to make one of his secondary offerings an out pitch.

Final Thoughts

While we all know what Harvey can do when healthy, Syndergaard could develop into the same kind of monster; they’re both power pitchers with electric, swing-and-miss stuff and a knack for keeping the ball on the ground.

Montero doesn’t have a high ceiling like Harvey, Wheeler or Syndergaard, but his plus command and overall feel for his craft makes him a safe bet to emerge as a quality back-end starter in the near future.

If Wheeler continues to make adjustments and builds on last year’s success and everything goes as planned with the development of Syndergaard and Montero, then the Mets could potentially boast one of the best starting rotations in the major leagues within a matter of years.

However, for that to happen, the organization will need Harvey to return to his pre-Tommy John, Cy Young-caliber form, even if only to take pressure off its other young arms. Furthermore, the club will need to retain a veteran hurler such as left-hander Jonathon Niese, who is under contract through 2016 with team options for 2017 and 2018.

It may be a few years until the aforementioned pitchers individually and collectively fire on all cylinders in the major leagues. However, when that time finally comes, the Mets will have an ideal starting rotation to build around long term.

All videos courtesy of MLB Advanced Media, MLB.com.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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The St. Louis Cardinals reached the World Series last season for the fourth time in the last decade, and they did so with a roster of mostly homegrown players. Even after losing Carlos Beltran to free agency, the Cardinals were viewed as potential contenders headed into 2014 given the holdovers from last year’s club.

The decision not to re-sign Beltran enabled the team to address its two glaring holes at the major league level during the offseason, as it traded for speedy center field Peter Bourjos and signed free-agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta.

But in spite of their upgrades at both up-the-middle positions, the Cardinals will have several decisions to make in the coming weeks pertaining to their Opening Day roster.

Fifth Starter: Joe Kelly vs. Carlos Martinez vs. Tyler Lyons

The Cardinals will open the season with the same starting rotation that carried them into the World Series. Staff ace Adam Wainwright will lead the way followed by 26-year-old Lance Lynn, while second-year standouts Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha are interchangeable as the team’s third and fourth starters.

Noticeably absent from the Cardinals’ projected rotation is left-hander Jaime Garcia, who has been limited to 177 innings over the last two seasons due to a perpetual shoulder injury. The 27-year-old appeared to be healthy headed into spring training, even throwing three pain-free bullpen sessions after reporting to camp.

However, it was announced a few days later that Garcia would travel back to St. Louis for an MRI on his left shoulder. The tests revealed no structural damage, but Garcia still was given a cortisone shot and prescribed 10 to 15 days of rest for his problematic wing.

Since they once again cannot rely on Garcia, the Cardinals will audition several pitchers for the final spot in the Opening Day rotation. According to manager Mike Matheny, via Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com:

I think all of us have been around this enough to know that [injuries happen], and it shouldn’t completely devastate you. You need to have some contingency plans in place of what it might look like. … We’re fortunate that we’ve got plenty of guys ready to compete right now, and we’ll just watch how they continue to progress.

The early favorite headed into spring training was Joe Kelly, who was arguably the team’s most consistent starter during the second half of the 2013 season, with a 9-2 record and 1.91 ERA in 75.1 innings (12 starts). He also made four postseason starts last year, registering a 4.15 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 21.2 innings.

Though the 25-year-old struggled in his first start on Monday against the Tigers, allowing two runs on a pair of hits and walks in 1.2 innings, he’s never had a particularly strong spring training (5.86 ERA in 27.2 innings headed into camp). So don’t read too far into Kelly’s spring stats; his regular-season and postseason accomplishments will always trump the small sample sizes.

However, that’s not to say Kelly is without competition.

Flame-throwing right-hander Carlos Martinez is also auditioning this spring for the final rotation spot, fresh off a breakout performance last October as the Cardinals’ setup man. In spite of his success and future potential out of the bullpen, the organization plans to use the 22-year-old as a starter in the upcoming season.

To ensure that Martinez receives sufficient innings to compete for the role, Matheny had the youngster start the team’s Grapefruit League debut last Friday. Besides the two-run home run he allowed to Garrett Jones on a hanging slider, the right-hander looked sharp in his season debut, striking out two batters over three innings without issuing a walk.

Left-hander Tyler Lyons is the third pitcher competing for a spot in the rotation, though it’s unlikely to see him getting the nod over Kelly and Martinez save for injuries to both right-handers.

Lyons had a respectable showing last season in the major leagues, posting a 4.75 ERA and 43-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 innings (eight starts), but worked out of the bullpen during September in deference to Wacha in the starting rotation.

The 25-year-old doesn’t have the experience or upside of Kelly or Martinez, but he’s nonetheless a solid rotation option from the left side. Plus, Lyons has looked good so far this spring, allowing two earned run on two hits with four strikeouts and no walks in four innings spanning two outings.

Though the Cardinals have plenty of options, it’s hard not to see the team breaking camp with Kelly as the fifth starter.

Martinez will likely make a strong case for consideration. However, there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty associated with the youngster, and the team knows what it will get from Kelly. Plus, it’s not like it’s a bad thing to have Martinez working the eighth inning.

Second Base: Kolten Wong vs. Mark Ellis 

After trading third baseman David Freese during the offseason and shifting Matt Carpenter to the hot corner, the Cardinals are hoping prospect Kolten Wong will emerge as the team’s Opening Day second baseman.

The position will be Wong’s to lose, however, as the 23-year-old has plenty to prove after a disappointing showing in the major leagues last summer, when he batted .153/.194/.169 in 62 plate appearances spanning 32 games. So it wasn’t surprising that the Cardinals signed veteran Mark Ellis this offseason as an insurance plan should Wong not run away with the position this spring.

Wong has received the bulk of the playing time at the keystone through the Cardinals’ first week of Grapefruit League games, but he’s yet to capitalize on the ample opportunities. After appearing in four games over the past week, Wong is currently 0-for-9 with four strikeouts.

Matheny said the following regarding Wong’s slow start this spring, via Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

I think we’d all rather get off to a good start than a bad one. But I think Kolten is going to be one of those guys that just trusts himself and his ability and not get too high or too low. I think there’s a lot to be seen about how he handles it when things don’t go his way. We’re constantly watching that as well with all these guys.

He’s a talented player and we’ll continue to give him some at-bats and some opportunities out there, and he’s going to be just fine. He looks good this spring. He’s got a nice, short stroke. It’s the first day out there, and he’s pretty hard on himself, so we’re going to have to just make sure he stays the course and keeps doing what he’s doing.

However, Matheny won’t necessarily open the season with Wong at second base solely because he’s viewed as the long-term answer at the position; he hopes Ellis will force the organization to give him more playing time as the spring unfolds, via Langosch of MLB.com:

I want Mark to come out and just do his thing, get ready the way he knows how, and [we’ll] tell Kolten that there is going to be an opportunity for you to go out and compete also. We’ve talked relentlessly with this staff that, ‘Let’s not commit to what we think it has to look like.’ Let’s let these guys go play this game and it’ll make it obvious for itself. There are going to be opportunities for Kolten, and there are going to be opportunities for Mark as well.

There’s a realistic chance that both Wong and Ellis will make the Opening Day roster in a platoon at second base, with Wong receiving playing time against right-handed pitchers and Ellis against southpaws. The organization doesn’t want to cut Wong out of the mix at this stage in his career, yet it also wants to field a winning team at the major league level.

Bench: Pete Kozma vs. Daniel Descalso

The final battle in Cardinals camp this spring is for a spot on the Opening Day roster as a reserve infielder. If Ellis and Wong both make the team in a platoon scenario at second base—though it’s possible Ellis also sees time at shortstop and third base—then the team will likely carry one utility infielder on the active roster.

Through the first week of games, the top two candidates for the spot are Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso.

Kozma spent last season at shortstop for the Cardinals thanks to his strong performance during both September and postseason in 2012. As expected, the 25-year-old’s one-month production (.952 OPS in 82 plate appearances) proved to be unsustainable over a full major league season, as he batted just .217/.275/.273 with one home run and 91 strikeouts in 448 plate appearances last year.

Additionally, Kozma is a right-handed batter who struggles against left-handed pitching, as evidenced by his .184/.280/.256 batting line versus southpaws last season. Against righties, Kozma fared only slightly better, batting .232/.273/.281 in nearly twice as many plate appearances.

Descalso, 27, served as the Cardinals’ utility infielder last season, as he received playing time at shortstop (55 games), second base (39 games) and third (38 games). However, the left-handed hitter struggled mightily at the dish during the second half of the season, batting .199/.237/.304 with 12 extra-base hits in 172 plate appearances. He also struggled against same-sided pitching last year, posting a .183/.246/.283 batting line in 66 plate appearances.

By now you hopefully get the idea; neither Descalso nor Kozma represents an ideal bat on the bench. However, given both of their respective abilities to play both middle-infield positions, the Cardinals will almost definitely break camp with one of them.

Though Descalso is capable of playing three infield spots, he’s not a particularly strong defender at any of them. According to FanGraphs.com’s fielding metrics, he cost the Cardinals seven runs at shortstop last season and four runs at second base. His only positive marks come at third base, where his glove saved the team four runs.

Kozma, on the other hand, played 137 games at shortstop last season and committed only nine errors while saving eight runs and showing good range (8.0 UZR/150).

Since both players only hit right-handed pitching, the Cardinals’ decision on who makes the Opening Day roster will likely come down to defense. With the team’s offseason signing of bat-first shortstop Peralta, it will need to carry a strong defender capable of replacing the 31-year-old in the late innings, and given Kozma’s track record with the glove at the position, he’s seemingly best suited for the role.

However, there’s also something to be said for Descalso’s versatility, as he gives the Cardinals the ability to mix and match the lineup on any given day. Plus, he recently settled his arbitration case for $1.29 million, which means the organization has additional incentive to keep him in the major leagues.

Center Field: Peter Bourjos vs. Jon Jay

The Cardinals first move of the offseason addressed the team’s lack of speed and defensive, as they traded 2011 World Series MVP David Freese and reliever Fernando Salas to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos and a prospect.

The Bourjos acquisition means that Jon Jay, who helped the Cardinals win a pair of NL pennants and a World Series title since reaching the major leagues in 2010, has his work cut out for him this spring.

Talking with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch prior to spring training, general manager John Mozeliak explained the team’s decision to trade for Bourjos:

“When you think about the elements of our team and where we could directionally move things, this was one area where, if possible, we could upgrade (by) finding someone who could be an elite defender in the league. … There’s no doubt when you look at what Jay has accomplished offensively. I look at Bourjos’ addition as an injection that is a very rare commodity to find. How it all gets used and put in place we’ll see.”

Jay, who turns 29 in March, spent most of the first half trying to alter the timing of his swing and owned a disappointing .671 OPS through his first 91 games. However, he eventually settled in after the All-Star break and posted a much-improved .791 OPS over his final 260 plate appearances. And while Jay’s .276/.351/.370 batting line represented an across-the-board regression, he did post career highs in doubles (27), runs scored (75) and RBI (67).

Bourjos began 2013 on a tear as the Angels’ everyday center fielder, batting .333/.392/.457 with eight extra-base hits through his first 147 plate appearances. Unfortunately, his red-hot start hit a wall in late April when the 26-year-old landed on the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain. Bourjos returned to action and picked up where he had left off, posting an .888 OPS in 18 games. But, as fate would have it, a hit by pitch on June 29 resulted in a fractured right wrist and another 47 games on the disabled list.

Bourjos was able to rejoin the Angels in mid-August, but the wrist injury clearly affected his ability to handle the bat, evidenced by a .109/.163/.152 batting line in 49 plate appearances spanning Aug. 16 to Sept. 3. Following the season, he underwent surgery on the wrist to repair a small fracture.

With Bourjos fully healthy entering 2014, the Cardinals hope he can return to his 2011 form, when he batted .271/.327/.438 with 72 runs scored, 49 extra-base hits and 22 stolen bases in 552 plate appearances.

However, while Jay gets the edge for his steady production and durability, it’s impossible to overlook what Bourjos brings to the table defensively.

Since reaching the major leagues in 2010, Bourjos’ 20.2 UZR/150 (which measures a player’s range) is the highest mark among all active center fielders with at least 1,500 innings at the position, according to FanGraphs.com’s defensive metrics, and he also ranks fifth with 33 runs saved.

From 2010 to 2012, Jay played average defense in center field, saving the team a total of three runs during that span. Last year, however, Jay’s normally reliable defense deteriorated in a hurry, as his -10 runs saved represented the second-worst total among qualified center fielder (trailing only Shin-Soo Choo with -17). Meanwhile, his zone rating of -7.5 UZR/150 was by far the lowest in his four-year career and ranked as the third-worst among his peers.

Both players offer a uniquely different lineup dynamic; Bourjos is a right-handed batter with speed and the ability to save runs, where as Jay swings from the left side with a track record of consistent production. The Cardinals will use spring training to evaluate both players and best determine their best option to open the season in center field. Yet, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Bourjos or Jay is strictly favored over the other, save for an injury.

Instead, it’s likely that both players will split time at the position this spring and possibly well into the regular season, with the organization hoping that one of them will eventually rise to the top and emerge as the everyday guy. 

Bourjos has considerably more upside given his age and tools and should serve as the Cardinals’ center fielder for years to come, but don’t expect the organization to completely write off Jay this year after only one poor season.

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Spring training statistics can be horribly misleading. With so many young, inexperienced prospects in big league camp, it’s imperative that all numbers be analyzed within context. At the same time, it’s hard not to get excited when a prospect makes an immediate impact.

Even though Cactus and Grapefruit League games began only a few days ago, numerous top-ranked prospects have already opened eyes with their performances against big league competition this spring in spite of limited opportunities. On the flip side, a small contingent of prospects got off to a rough start this past week and will look to right the ship as the spring unfolds.

Here’s a look at some of the best and worst performances after the first week of spring training.    

Stock Up

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Spring Training Stats: 1-for-5, HR

The Pirates will continue to give Polanco extended playing time this spring in order to determine his timetable for the upcoming season. While the 22-year-old is expected to take over as the team’s right fielder at some point during the summer, he’s likely headed back to Triple-A until the organization deems him ready for a promotion.

Polanco has collected only one hit through his first two games this spring, but it was a big one: a solo home run off David Phelps in the first inning of Thursday’s game.

Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers 

Spring Training Stats: 3-for-6, 2 2B, 4 RBI

The Tigers aren’t holding anything back this year with top prospect Castellanos, who is tabbed to open the season as the team’s starting third baseman; basically, the position is his to lose. Therefore, the organization has to be pleased with the soon-to-be 22-year-old’s red-hot start this spring.

Castellanos turned in his signature performance Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies, going 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles and four RBI. His two-out, bases-clearing double off the right-centerfield wall in the first inning gave the Tigers an early 3-0 lead.

Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Spring Training Stats: 1-for-6, HR, 2 RBI

Joc Pederson is a baller. Yet I can’t help but feel as though he’s still very underrated.

The 21-year-old is an impressive athlete with sneaky strength, showcasing five potentially average or better tools and mature secondary skills. Pederson projects to be a slightly above-average hitter at the highest level, with an advanced approach and line-drive-oriented swing, and he already demonstrates a feel for working counts and getting on base. Oh yeah, he legitimately can play all three outfield positions.

Pederson has already appeared in three games this spring, and the left-handed batter made a strong impression Friday with a two-run, opposite-field home run down the left field line. Expect him to receive consistent playing time this spring so long as Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford are on the shelf.

Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs

Spring Training Stats: 1-for-1, HR, 2 RBI

Bryant hasn’t stopped hitting since signing with the Cubs last summer; he posted a 1.078 OPS with nine home runs in 36 games across three minor league levels before heading to the prestigious Arizona Fall League, where the 6’5” slugger produced a 1.184 OPS with eight doubles and six home runs in only 20 games.

The 22-year-old was arguably the lone bright spot Friday in the Cubs’ 15-3 loss to the Angels, launching a two-run home run to straightaway center field in his only at-bat.

Rafael Montero/Jacob deGrom, RHP, New York Mets

2013 Spring Stats: Montero: 2 IP, 2 K; deGrom: 2 IP, 4 K

Two of the Mets’ top pitching prospects made their respective spring debuts Friday against the Washington Nationals, as Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom combined to throw four perfect frames to open the game.

Montero received the starting nod and struck out two batters in two innings, and deGrom followed by one-upping the right-hander with four strikeouts in his two innings of work. Though neither prospect is expected to compete for a spot on the Opening Day roster, both Montero and deGrom should spend a portion of the upcoming season in the major leagues.

Stock Down

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Spring Training Stats: IP, 2 BB, K

It was obvious that something needed to change for Trevor Bauer following his disappointing 2013 campaign with the Indians—or should I say the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate. So the right-hander finally decided to alter his mechanics this offseason with the hope that it would improve his control.

Bauer showed off his new mechanics Wednesday in his spring debut, though it seemed to have a minimal impact on the 23-year-old right-hander’s approach and overall control. In his only inning of work against the Cincinnati Reds, Bauer recorded one strikeout against two walks while throwing a strike in four of 12 pitches.

Unless Bauer demonstrates a drastic improvement this spring, it’s difficult to envision the once-promising prospect breaking camp in the Tribe’s Opening Day rotation.

Marco Gonzales, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Spring Training Stats: 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, K

Gonzales, the Cardinals’ first pick in the 2013 draft, had a shaky spring debut Friday against the Miami Marlins, though I’m sure the left-hander’s nerves played a role in his struggles. The 22-year-old was unable to complete his scheduled two-inning outing, as his fringy control and tentative approach resulted in two earned runs on two hits and three walks.

J.R. Graham, RHP, Atlanta Braves 

Spring Training Stats: 0.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, K

Graham was expected to make an impact in the major leagues last season, but a shoulder injury in mid-May prevented the 24-year-old from taking the mound for the rest of the year. A clean bill of health has the right-hander back on the mound this spring, which is really all that matters. As expected, Graham was rusty Friday in his spring debut following the extended layoff, allowing two earned runs on three hits in 0.2 innings.

But don’t read too far into his line; right now, he just needs to build arm strength in preparation for the upcoming season.

Daniel Corcino, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Spring Training Stats: 0.2 IP, 4 ER, H, 3 BB, 2 K

The Reds rushed Corcino to Triple-A last season based on the merits of his successful 2012 campaign at Double-A. As a result, the 23-year-old regressed considerably in the International League, registering an ugly 5.86 ERA and 90-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 129 innings. Specifically, the right-hander struggled to pound the strike zone with his fastball, which in turn made his secondary offerings less effective.

Unfortunately, Corcino’s spring debut Thursday against the Indians indicated that nothing has changed for the right-hander, as he allowed four earned runs on one hit and three walks and failed to complete his outing. However, for what it’s worth, the two outs Corcino recorded in the frame were both strikeouts.

*All stats courtesy of MLB.com and reflect games through Feb. 28, 2014

*All videos courtesy of MLB Advanced Media, MLB.com

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All eyes were on Jose Abreu Friday afternoon, as the Cuban slugger made his highly anticipated White Sox debut after signing a four-year, $68 million contract during the offseason.

Although the 27-year-old went hitless in two at-bats and was replaced in the bottom of the fourth inning, he certainly didn’t disappoint in his first taste of stateside baseball, lining to left field in his first at-bat and seeing 11 total pitches on the day.

Granted two at-bats is a ridiculously small sample on which to evaluate a player, but Abreu showed a defined approach in both trips to the plate on Friday. Suffice it to say it was a pleasant surprise for onlookers expecting a raw, free-swinger cut from the same mold as Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes.

Here’s what we learned about Cuban superstar Jose Abreu in his spring debut.

He isn’t afraid to work the count

Though Abreu is known for his vicious swings and prodigious power, the truth of the matter is that he’s more disciplined than given credit for, with a consistent approach and strong feel for the strike zone. Earlier this spring, White Sox manager Robin Ventura raved about his new first baseman’s approach and work ethic, via Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com:

He has more of a professional approach for being a big guy, hitting the ball the other way, more aware of his pitch. That’s stuff you like to see, the way they work, they go about it. He knows how to practice. He’s played before, so you know he knows how to do that.

…

You’re watching him practice, and he’s not worried about trying to hit every ball over the fence. He’s moving it around the field and hitting it on the barrel. Even fielding stuff, you’re watching him do things for a reason. He has a way to go about it that’s very professional.

Abreu’s mature approach was on display Friday against the Dodgers, as he saw a total of 11 pitches between his two at-bats. The right-handed batter quickly worked a 2-1 count by taking the first three pitches he saw from starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, and he later pushed the count full with another take on 2-2 before roping a line-out to left field.

After facing Ryu in his first at-bat, Abreu drew a more challenging arm his next time up in Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen. However, the slugger showed the same plate discipline against the right-hander; he appeared to see the ball well out of Jansen’s hand and tracked it deep into the zone.

Specifically, Abreu had a pair of impressive takes during the at-bat, both of which came after he swung through the first pitch. Jansen tried to make Abreu expand his zone with an elevated, 0-1 fastball, but the 27-year-old was able to lay off and even the count. Jansen’s next pitch was his trademark cutter just off the outside corner, which looked like a strike until it sliced off the plate.

Amazingly, Abreu was able to spit on the offering, tracking it all the way to the catcher’s glove off the outside corner. He could have probably put the barrel on the ball—Abreu hardly appeared tempted by the offering, which suggests he was looking for something on the inner half. Though he ended up grounding out to second base on a 2-2 pitch to end the at-bat, the patience he showed along the way was very, very impressive.

He doesn‘t get cheated

Listed at 6’3”, 255 pounds, Abreu is an enormous human being with enormous power. The 27-year-old posted a .621 slugging percentage with 184 home runs in 2,686 plate appearances during his 10-year career in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, and that doesn’t include his strong track record in international tournaments.

Abreu’s first swing as a member of the White Sox was certainly memorable, albeit for the wrong reasons. After taking the first three pitches against Ryu, the big man finally cut it loose on a 2-1 changeup.

However, because he was sitting on a fastball, Abreu was way out in front of the pitch before losing grip of his bat and launching it toward the third-base dugout. Luckily, he would make up for the ugly hack later in the at-bat.

After working the count full, Abreu put a nice swing on a Ryu slider that caught too much of the plate, lacing it on a line to Chone Figgins in left field, who ultimately ran it down just before the warning track.

As you can see, Abreu was able to get the barrel on the ball. However, his swing was still a bit early against the slider, and it caused him to work around the ball on a flatter plane rather than staying inside so as to generate extension. Still, the fact that Abreu managed to hit a rocket to the track is a testament to his sheer strength.

Abreu took another monster hack in his second at-bat of the game, but once again he came up empty, this time swinging through a first-pitch cutter against Jansen. He ultimately worked the count back to 2-2 before grounding out to second base with a protective swing.

*All screenshots courtesy of MLB Advanced Media, MLB.com.

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Hyun-Jin Ryu emerged as one of the top rookie pitchers in the National League in 2013, serving as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ third starter for the entire season and making all but one scheduled start. 

Signed to a six-year, $36 million contract prior to the 2013 season after an impressive tenure in the Korean Baseball Organization, Ryu led all qualified NL rookies with 192 innings pitched, ranked second in wins (14), third in ERA (3.00) and fourth in strikeouts (154).

The left-hander also proved he could handle the pressure of the postseason, tossing seven scoreless innings in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of the NLCS, with the Dodgers down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series.

However, as the 27-year-old embarks on his second season in the major leagues, he’ll be expected to build off his impressive rookie campaign and help the Dodgers return to the postseason.

With any player coming off an impressive rookie season, a big deal is made about his capacity for improvement in context of the dreaded sophomore slump. After a full season in the major leagues, opposing teams generally have excess scouting reports at their disposal and therefore are knowledgeable of a player’s specific tendencies in all facets of the game.

While Ryu may not post the same eye-catching numbers he did last year as a rookie, the left-hander shouldn’t fall victim to a sophomore slump in 2014.

Best Shape of His Life?

Ryu was the first to admit that he was “unprepared” entering his rookie campaign, as he spent a majority of last offseason dealing with contract negotiations before signing in early December with the Dodgers. 

This year, however, the southpaw has a better idea of what to expect in spring training, and more importantly, what it requires physically to survive a full season in the major leagues.

Speaking with Ken Gurnick of MLB.com earlier this month, Ryu stated “last year was trying with the contract, and I didn’t get a head start. I’ve had more time to prepare this year.”

“My teammates definitely push me. At the end of the day, you have to do it yourself. I just try to be in the best shape I can. I’m an athlete; it’s my job to be in the best condition,” he added.

Besides missing one start due in early September due to back stiffness, Ryu didn’t show any obvious signs of fatigue last season, such as a declining release point or dip in velocity. So if he’s actually in better shape this year as he claims—don’t expect it to show physically—the left-hander should be more prepared for the rigors of a full season.

Against Righties 

Ryu fared well against right-handed hitters last season, registering a .245 opponents’ batting average and 1.45 ground-ball rate with a 117-35 strikeout-to-walk rate in 145.1 innings. A look at the left-hander’s pitch-specific splits reveals his overall effectiveness was directly tied to his fastball and changeup usage. When Ryu was hit hard, it was usually on a curveball or slider.

Simply put: Right-handed batters feasted on Ryu’s breaking balls last season, consistently driving both pitches when they were located in the lower-two-thirds of the strike zone, and even those off the outside corner: 

The above zone profile would suggest that right-handed batters were able to recognize Ryu’s curveball and slider out of his hand, tracking the break into the strike zone and putting a good swing on the ball.

As a result, Ryu primarily used his fastball-changeup combination last season against righties. Actually, he would have struggled even more if not for the season-long effectiveness of his changeup, as he used the pitch to hold right-handed batters to a .165 batting average on the year.

Assuming that opposing hitters look for his changeup more often in 2014, Ryu has the potential to take a step forward with improved execution and sequencing of both breaking pitches. He had success last year with both offerings when working over the plate but still below the strike zone, so it’ll be interesting to see if he attacks hitters there more aggressively in the coming season.   

2014 Projections 

Now that we’ve examined a few reasons why Ryu will avoid a sophomore slump, it’s time to take a look at what the major projection models (ZIPS, Steamer and Oliver) predict for his 2014 season:  

Ryu’s BABIP and FIP suggest that the left-hander wasn’t necessarily the beneficiary of luck last season, though some of that might have been negated by his high strand rate.

The combination of Ryu’s strong command and lack of a universal swing-and-miss offering has made the left-hander adept at escaping jams. Last season he logged a total of 42 innings with runners in scoring position, holding opposing hitters to a .228 batting average in those situations while posting a strand rate of 78.2 percent.

Each of the projection models believes Ryu’s strand rate will normalize in 2014, though it shouldn’t adversely impact his ERA and FIP in the long run. They also project he’ll post strikeout and walk rates similar to the ones he did last year as a rookie (7.22 K/9, 2.30 BB/9).

The one outlier across the three models is the ZIPS projection for Ryu’s home run rate (1.18 HR/9) next season, which is considerably higher than the Oliver (0.77) and Steamer (0.72) forecasts. However, that trend seemingly is taken into consideration, as ZIPS also calls for him to post a 3.65 ERA and 3.93 FIP—his highest projected totals for each category.

If Ryu can stay healthy and the projection models prove to be mostly accurate, then the 27-year-old should be a similar pitcher to what he showed in 2013. And though his improvements might be minimal, there’s nothing to suggest Ryu is in store for a regression next season.

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It may not count in the standings, but all eyes were focused on George Steinbrenner Field on Tuesday afternoon as the New York Yankees played host to Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and the Florida State Seminoles. 

The Yankees did win the game, 8-3, but that was a mere formality. Even the best college teams are going to struggle against professional squads because of the talent disparity and the use of wood bats in the game. For his part, Winston went 0-for-2 at the plate, coming in as a replacement in left field in the fifth.

Winston’s appearance in the game and New York’s unofficial start to spring training made this one of the most talked about baseball events of the winter. 

While his long-term future lies in football, Winston has brought a much-needed buzz to college baseball this spring because of his profile. He splits time between the outfield and pitching, as he did in Tuesday’s game. 

This was obviously a special attraction for fans in Florida, who took to the stadium to mob the star quarterback on a day when professional MLB stars like Brett Gardner were in the lineup and others, like Derek Jeter, were also in attendance. 

There are more FSU fans at George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa to see Jameis Winston than there are Yankee fans. pic.twitter.com/cdTw2aJztn

— Kevin ODonnell Fox13 (@ODonnellFox13) February 25, 2014

Even though I mentioned Winston’s long-term future is in football, Florida State football coach Jimbo Fisher seems to think that his star quarterback could split time between both sports if he really wanted to and entered the right situation (via Brendan Sonnone, Orlando Sentinel). 

Jimbo Fisher on Jameis Winston playing pro baseball and football: “I think he definitely has ability, but it has to be the right situation.”

— Brendan Sonnone (@osfsu) February 25, 2014

Of course, even though he didn’t get to play on the same field as most of the Yankees’ biggest stars, that didn’t mean Winston missed out on an opportunity to take a picture with two of the franchise’s biggest icons (via SportsCenter). 

Jameis Winston – in pinstripes – poses with Derek Jeter & Jorge Posada. FSU plays NYY today in exhibition game. pic.twitter.com/WdW3DKl2sR

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 25, 2014

Also before the game took place, Winston took a few hacks in the batting cage with fans and teammates watching.

FSU’s 2 sport star, Famous Jameis Winston talking batting practice warming up for the Yankees. pic.twitter.com/Q7f8Jwq3xp

— Kevin ODonnell Fox13 (@ODonnellFox13) February 25, 2014

Jameis taking BP before the game pic.twitter.com/o4vJIF7Xob

— FSU Baseball (@FSU_Baseball) February 25, 2014

Even though Winston was the focus of today’s game, Fisher got to throw out the ceremonial first pitch.

FSU head football coach Jimbo Fisher throws a strike, but not from the mound. pic.twitter.com/zt1bamGxXQ

— Kevin ODonnell Fox13 (@ODonnellFox13) February 25, 2014

After all the build-up, Winston finally entered the game in the bottom of the fifth inning, taking over in left field for D.J. Stewart. His first plate appearance came in the top of the sixth inning. The drama was all for naught, as Yankees pitcher Shane Greene got the two-sport star to ground out on a ball to second base. 

Now batting, against the Yankees, number 44, Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston… who grounded out to 2B. pic.twitter.com/L4IoD2DpI3

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 25, 2014

Jameis Winston needs some new lumber after this swing. pic.twitter.com/2R5CaV3yEC

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) February 25, 2014

Even though the at-bat didn’t end in successful fashion, Sweeny Murti of WFAN New York noted that all anyone in attendance wanted to see was Winston make some kind of contact with the ball. 

Jameis Winston just hit the most applauded spring training foul ball since Billy Crystal. Then he grounded out to second.

— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) February 25, 2014

Sometimes winning a Heisman Trophy and a national championship for a beloved college team in a sports-obsessed state like Florida has some perks, like getting a rousing ovation for a foul ball. 

Winston did get a second at-bat in the eighth inning, but as David Waldstein of The New York Times said, it was hardly a banner moment for the biggest star in college sports. 

Winston strikes out to end the inning. The equivalent of taking a sack on third down

— David Waldstein (@DavidWaldstein) February 25, 2014

Despite some thought that Winston would pitch in the game, Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted that Florida State coach Mike Martin opted to not let Winston pitch because his arm was a little tender.

Jameis Winston wanted to pitch today against the #Yankees, but coach Mike Martin said he had a tender elbow after his last appearance.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 25, 2014

Winston’s absence on the mound made for a rather uneventful conclusion to the game, since the only attraction left in the later innings, when the Yankees had taken control of things, was seeing the Heisman winner throw to professional hitters. 

After the game was over, Winston was mobbed by fans and reporters. One of the most interesting things he said came from a question about why he still plays baseball (via Andrew Astleford, Sun Sports Florida).

Jameis Winston on why two sports appeal to him: “I grew up playing both. That’s important to me … so I just kept that dream going.”

— Andrew Astleford (@aastleford) February 25, 2014

Most of the time, two-sport stars are forced to choose between one or the other upon entering college because of time commitments. Good for Winston to keep doing both while he still can. 

Winston also found meeting members of the Yankees to be quite the thrill in his young life, but not quite as good as winning the BCS title (via Joe Smith, Tampa Bay Times).

Despite being a preseason third-team All-American selection by Baseball America, Winston hasn’t had a major impact on the team thus far. He’s 1-for-1 with a single and walk in two games as a position player. 

On the mound, Winston has made a bigger impact. He’s strictly a reliever, appearing in three games covering four innings with no runs allowed on one hit, three strikeouts and one save. 

Since his baseball future, if he wants to have one, is likely on the mound, it’s a shame that Winston’s arm wasn’t cooperating enough to let him throw against the Yankees. That could have done a lot to enhance his MLB draft profile, though there is still a lot of work to do in that regard. 

Instead, Winston can just take solace in knowing that he got two at-bats in an exhibition game against the Yankees and was the main attraction. 

Note: Florida State stats courtesy of Seminoles.com

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

Follow @adamwells1985

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Now that teams have reported to spring training and taken part in full workouts, the games can begin, which means we get a chance to see what the best minor leaguers in baseball will do against proven stars. 

Sometimes prospects will parlay a strong spring into a surprise MLB job right out of camp, like Jackie Bradley did with Boston or Aaron Hicks did with Minnesota last year. It’s often dangerous to put stock in spring numbers because of sample-size issues and shifts in competition. 

However, for the top 50 prospects in baseball this year, it seems that there is already a strong consensus over where they are going to end up. Sometimes their paths will change, most likely due to injuries, but often they’re set in stone. 

Even if we know where a prospect will end up, that doesn’t make their performance against MLB-quality pitching any less fascinating to watch. It provides us with a snapshot at where they are in the development cycle. 

In an effort to minimize what you have to search for, we will provide daily updates on what each of the top 50 prospects have done in games. The rankings reflect Bleacher Report Lead Prospect writer Mike Rosenbaum’s most recent Top 100 list. 

Note: Stats courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted. 

Begin Slideshow

Every year, baseball fans’ excitement about top prospects in major league spring training seems to grow. Unfortunately, it also makes it easy to overlook some of the game’s less glamorous, under-the-radar prospects.

Besides providing an opportunity for players to fine-tune their skills in anticipation of the season, participating in major league camp also offers prospects the chance to make a strong impression in front of the entire organization.

Therefore, I’ve identified a select group of prospects—some are on a 40-man roster, some are non-roster invitees—whom I believe will blow past expectations in spring training and ultimately turn in a breakout performance during the minor and major league regular seasons.

Here’s a look at my spring training breakout prospects to watch in 2014.

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The last half-decade has been rough for the Chicago Cubs.

The franchise owns a 356-453 overall record since its last playoff berth in 2008, recording only one winning season (2009) during that span. And if that wasn’t bad enough, the Cubs are coming off back-to-back dismal seasons in which they combined for 197 losses.

However, help is on the way.

If you’ve seen my top 100 prospects and farm system rankings for 2014, then you probably already know that the Cubs’ collection of prospects is among the best in baseball. Specifically, the organization placed seven players in the top 100, with three ranking in the top 20: Javier Baez (No. 6), Albert Almora (14) and Kris Bryant (17).

While many of the Cubs’ top prospects have bright futures, Baez, Almora and Bryant each have the ceiling of an All-Star-caliber player, and it won’t be long until they’re given a crack at the major leagues. Yet, in order to climb out of the cellar in the National League Central and contend for a spot in the postseason, the Cubs can’t afford to rely on the presumed success of their Big Three.

The Cubs are headed in the right direction and could feature one of the NL’s more exciting offenses by the end of the 2015 season (and beyond). However, it’s difficult to envision the franchise turning things around without first addressing its lack of depth on the mound.

Javier Baez

It’s hard not to be excited about Javier Baez.

Last season he led all minor league hitters in both extra-base hits and RBI, and tied for second in home runs—as a 20-year-old.

After a slow start at High-A Daytona, Baez eventually caught fire and turned in possibly the most impressive offensive performance of the 2013 minor league season on June 10, when he was 4-for-4 with four home runs and seven RBI at home against Fort Myers. By the end of the month Baez was in Double-A.

From there forward the now-21-year-old was one of the most productive hitters in the minors, posting a .983 OPS and 20 home runs over his last 54 games.

Between both stops, Baez batted .282/.341/.578 with 98 runs scored, 75 extra-base hits (37 home runs), 111 RBI, 20 stolen bases and a 147-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 130 games.

As I mentioned in Baez’s top-100 write-up, he generates elite raw power with his extremely strong wrists and violent swing—the kind that makes 30-plus annual home runs in the major leagues a very real possibility. He has issues with pitch recognition and chases too many breaking balls out of the zone, but it’s mostly a product of his aggressive approach and should improve with more experience against quality pitching. Plus, even if Baez posts poor strikeout-to-walk rates in the major leagues—he’s struck out 220 times against 54 walks in 916 minor league plate appearances—his bat speed and ability to square the ball should result in respectable batting averages.

Defensively, Baez is an impressive athlete with smooth actions at shortstop and a plus arm that’s ideal for the position. However, as is the case with most young shortstops, he’s still learning to control his body and, more importantly, learning to slow down the game. So don’t get too caught up in the high error totals (67 errors in 203 games) during the early stages of his career.

Unfortunately, with Starlin Castro under contract through the 2019 season, Baez lacks a clear path to playing time in the major leagues, save for an injury, of course. Yet the Cubs will likely be forced to make room in the lineup for him at some point next season; with a top-flight prospect such as Baez, an aggressive promotion to the major leagues is actually the next logical step in his overall development. So it’s not a surprise they plan on working him in at both second and third base during spring training. Baez’s bat will be a weapon no matter where he plays defensively.

Kris Bryant

Selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2013 draft, Kris Bryant made stops at three minor league levels last summer, capping his impressive professional debut by batting .333/.387/.719 with five home runs and 14 RBI in 16 games at High-A Daytona.

Bryant’s late-season success carried over into the Arizona Fall League, where he batted .364/.457/.727 with eight doubles, six home runs and 17 RBI in 20 games, and was named the circuit’s MVP.

Though known for his robust, light-tower power to all fields, Bryant actually has a good feel for hitting, with a line-to-line approach, good pitch recognition and excellent plate coverage. I do think he’ll encounter some problems in the high minors due to his lack of a stride and purely rotational swing, but nothing he can’t overcome with a few adjustments and more experience.

There’s some uncertainty whether Bryant will remain at third base with Javy Baez ahead of him on the depth chart, so there’s a good chance the 22-year-old sees time at both corner outfield spots as the season unfolds. In spite of his massive 6’5”, 215-pound build, Bryant is a good athlete and moves well for his size, and he should have modest range given the length of his strides. His plus arm is a clean fit in right field, as is his bat, but like Baez, it’s all about what position will give him the clearest path to the major leagues.

Albert Almora

It says something that Albert Almora isn’t overlooked in a system that houses the best power-hitting tandem in the minor leagues.

Almora’s 2013 full-season debut was bookended by a pair of injuries, but it didn’t stop him from emerging as one of the top hitters in the low minors. Upon his return from a broken hamate bone suffered during the spring, Almora was one of the Midwest League’s top hitters, batting .329/.376/.466 with 24 extra-base hits and a 30-17 strikeout-to-walk rate in 61 games. However, the outfielder’s impressive season ended prematurely on Aug. 7 when he was placed on the disabled list with a groin injury.

The Cubs assigned Almora to the Arizona Fall League to make up for the lost time, where he promptly thrived in spite of being one of the league’s youngest everyday players. The 19-year-old wound up batting .307/.342/.480 with nine extra-base hits and 12 RBI in 21 games.

Almora is a premium athlete who showcases five future average-or-better tools and extremely advanced baseball skills for a player his age. Perhaps more importantly, Almora’s makeup grades through the rough; the kid simply leads by example and seemingly never takes a pitch off.

A right-handed batter, Almora has a quiet and efficient swing with preternatural barrel control and a knack for consistently staying inside the ball. The 19-year-old already has a strong approach at the plate, not to mention an impressive feel for the strike zone, and you can just tell he takes pride in using the entire field. Also, Almora should have more over-the-fence pop after he develops physically and adds strength, and his power has the potential to be above average by the time he reaches the major leagues.

Defensively, Almora is everything one could hope for in a future center fielder. Though his speed is only a tick better than average, he demonstrates excellent instincts through his reads, jumps and positioning. He can flat-out go get the ball, making challenging plays on the run appear effortless.

Unlike Baez and Bryant, Almora doesn’t face any potential roadblocks in center field, and should have the position to himself once he’s deemed ready for the major leagues. Given his age and inexperience above Low-A, Almora will be the last of the Big Three to debut at Wrigley Field, probably in late 2015 if all goes as planned with his development next season. However, because he’s already such a well-rounded young player, he arguably will be the most prepared for the challenge.

Pitching: The Final Frontier

While the Cubs’ system stands out for its wealth of promising young hitters, it also draws unwanted attention for its lack of high-end pitching prospects. However, with Baez, Bryant and Almora expected to arrive in the major leagues within the next two years, it’s only a matter of time until team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer shift the organization’s focus toward adding impactful arms to all levels of the system.

That being said, the Cubs have quietly added several potential back-end starters since the beginning of the 2012 season, acquiring right-handers C.J. Edwards, Kyle Hendricks and Neil Ramirez through a pair of trades with the Texas Rangers, and also landing Paul Blackburn, Pierce Johnson and Rob Zastryzny through the draft. The only true high-ceiling arm in the Cubs’ system is Edwards, but he’s still considered a risky prospect given his undersized, wiry frame and lack of experience above the High-A level as a 22-year-old.

After selecting Baez, Almora and Bryant in the first round of the draft in successive years, the Cubs will presumably target high-upside (but still relatively safe) arms in 2014—and they’ll have plenty of intriguing choices with the fourth overall pick.

It also will be interesting to see how the Cubs approach free-agent pitchers in the coming years, especially ones that received a qualifying offer and will therefore cost the organization a future first-round draft pick. The only way they’ll go all in on a free-agent hurler is if the team shows steady improvement at the highest level. Plus, given the organization’s surplus of impact position prospects, they should have many opportunities to trade depth for proven major league talent.

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While it will be several years until most of the 2013 draft picks are ready for the major leagues, there exists a small contingent of players with the potential to contribute at the highest level in 2014.

Thanks to an accelerated signing deadline in mid-July under Major League Baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement—it used to be mid-August—draft picks are now encouraged to quickly begin their professional careers. For some of those players, that means an ahead-of-schedule debut in the major leagues the following year.

Here’s a look at five early-round picks from the 2013 draft who are fast-tracked toward MLB success.

Jonathan Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies

The No. 3-overall pick in the 2013 draft, Jonathan Gray is what a front-of-the-rotation starter should look like, with a large, durable build, electric arsenal and aggressive approach.

Owner of the best pure stuff in the 2013 draft class, the right-hander boasts a near-elite fastball that registers in the 94-98 mph and touches triple digits early in starts (he topped out at 102 mph this spring). He also features a plus slider that sits consistently between 85-88 mph with late, wipe-out break, sharp tilt and excellent pace. His straight changeup represents his weakest offering and will need refinement, as it’s currently an average pitch with decent fading action to the arm side.

The Rockies assigned Gray to the Rookie-level Pioneer League to begin his professional career, where he was slow to get going with a 4.05 ERA over four starts. The right-hander was then promoted to High-A Modesto in early August to conclude his professional debut—which he did in dominating fashion. Making five starts in the hitter-friendly California League, the 22-year-old allowed only 10 hits and recorded 36 strikeouts in 24 innings.

Though Gray could probably open the 2014 season in the Rockies’ starting rotation, the organization obviously has no need to rush his development and will presumably issue him an Opening Day assignment to Double-A Tulsa. But as long as he can stay healthy, it may be difficult keep him in the minors next season for more than a few months.

Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros

The No. 1-overall pick in the 2013 draft, Mark Appel has been tabbed as a future ace since the beginning of his 2012 campaign at Stanford, and he shouldn’t require much time in the minor leagues.

As a 6’5”, 190-pound right-hander, Appel’s fastball sits consistently in the 93-97 mph range with some sink and arm-side run. His slider registers around 84-88 mph with a consistent pace, though he can get around the pitch at times and generate slurve-like spin. Appel’s changeup has come a long way over the last year and shows plus potential in the 83-85 mph range with fastball-like arm speed and late fade.

After signing with the Astros last summer, Appel made two brief starts in the short-season New York-Penn League before moving up to Low-A Quad Cities for the final two months of the minor league regular season. Besides one ugly outing (3.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER), Appel pitched well in his first taste of full-season ball, registering a 3.82 ERA and 29-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33 innings.

While Appel’s arsenal ranks as one of the more advanced and polished among pitching prospects, his approach and feel for sequencing may need to be adjusted as he climbs the ladder and faces more experienced hitters. The Astros won’t need him at the major league level in 2014, but, at the same time, they won’t be afraid to challenge him if it makes sense. Expect the right-hander to debut in late July or early August.

D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B, Seattle Mariners

Arguably the most advanced college hitter in the 2013 draft class, D.J. Peterson has the potential to move quickly through Seattle’s system thanks to his combination of preternatural bat-to-ball skills and an advanced approach.

Although there’s uncertainty regarding his long-term defensive home—he’s currently a third baseman, but his lack of range and athleticism means he’ll likely shift to first base down the line—Peterson’s potential for plus hit and power tools at maturity should be a clean fit at either infield corner.

After the 22-year-old posted a .914 OPS over 29 games in the Northwest League to begin his professional career, the Mariners promoted Peterson in late July to Low-A Clinton for the final six weeks of the minor league season. Unfortunately, the right-handed batter was hit in the face by a pitch on Aug. 22, breaking his jaw and prematurely ending his professional debut. Overall, he batted .303/.365/.553 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI in 55 games between both levels.

The Mariners were aggressive with the development of 2012 first-rounder Mike Zunino, and they are likely to do something similar with Peterson next season. There’s a realistic chance that the 22-year-old begins the upcoming season at Double-A Jackson, and if that’s ultimately the case, then Peterson, like Zunino, should reach the major leagues ahead of schedule.

Corey Knebel, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Corey Knebel was widely regarded as the best true closer in the 2013 draft class after a strong career at the University of Texas, so it wasn’t surprising that the Detroit Tigers, a team with major question marks surrounding their big league bullpen, took him with the No. 39-overall pick.

Boasting a plus fastball-curveball combination ideal for a late-inning role, the 22-year-old dominated as the closer for Low-A West Michigan last summer in his professional debut. Granted, he faced mostly younger hitters in the Midwest League, but that doesn’t completely detract from the right-hander’s 15 saves, 0.87 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 31 innings.

Knebel was equally impressive during his time in the Arizona Fall League—save for one forgettable outing (Nov. 6) for which I was in attendance—logging eight scoreless appearances with 11 strikeouts in 8.2 innings.

Given his performance at the Low-A level last summer, Knebel should open the 2014 season at either High- or Double-A, and generally has the potential to move up the ladder in a hurry. Both his stuff and makeup are nearly ready for the highest level, and I expect him to emerge as at least a late-inning option for the Tigers by mid-season.

Kyle Crockett, LHP, Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians made Kyle Crockett their fourth-round selection this past June after he turned in a dominant season as Virginia Tech’s closer, saving 10 games and posting a 51-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43 innings.

While the 6’2” left-hander lacks a plus pitch, both his fastball and slider are at least average and masked by a deceptive, low-three-quarters arm slot. As you can imagine, the 22-year-old is especially tough on same-side hitters. 

After signing with the Indians, Crockett was dispatched to the short-season New York-Penn League and promptly fanned 16 batters over 9.1 scoreless innings. He then made a brief, four-game stop with Low-A Lake County before moving up to Double-A Akron in early August. At the more advanced level, Crockett failed to allow an earned run over nine appearances (10.1 IP).

After his impressive pro debut, Crockett will likely begin the 2014 season back at Akron. However, it really doesn’t matter where the southpaw starts next year; he’s on the fast track to the major leagues and should be one of the first—if not the first—2013 draftees to get the call next season.

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