Kuzul

When you are a 21-year-old baseball player with 18 games of professional experience under your belt and a team trusts you to take over as the starting third baseman in the middle of the American League Championship Series, odds are good that you have special abilities. 

In the case of Boston Red Sox prospect Xander Bogaerts, last year’s postseason was a blip on the radar for what this young stud is capable of doing. 

What’s scary for other teams around baseball is that Bogaerts could end up being one of the two or three best hitters in Boston’s lineup by the end of 2014, no easy feat considering David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino are already featured players.

But seeing how comfortable Bogaerts was on the biggest stage in baseball last October, putting up quality at-bats night after night, even if he didn’t have the hits to show for it, this is a special talent with no apparent ceiling. 

Going up against the likes of Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha in the postseason, Bogaerts could have easily crumbled under the pressure of his first exposure to MLB pitching. 

Instead, Bogaerts, who turned 21 just days before the 2013 postseason started, put together some of the best at-bats in the postseason. His seven-pitch walk and double in his first two at-bats against Scherzer during Game 6 of the ALCS set the tone for the Red Sox in that series-clinching win. 

Now, with Stephen Drew alone on a free-agent island, Bogaerts has the inside track on the starting shortstop job for the defending World Series champions in 2014. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted that Bogaerts will only be working at shortstop for the time being:

The Red Sox have decided Xander Bogaerts will workout strictly at SS. At least for time being. They don’t want to overload working at 3b

— Nick Cafardo (@nickcafardo) February 11, 2014

Drew could still re-sign with the Red Sox, though general manager Ben Cherington told MLB Network Radio that any deal with their former shortstop wouldn’t happen before the team opens camp on February 15 (via NESN.com’s Ricky Doyle).

If Drew returns to Boston, Bogaerts would presumably return to third base and push Will Middlebrooks down to Triple-A or give the Red Sox a trade chip to fill another hole that may develop during spring training. 

Regardless of where the Red Sox put Bogaerts in the field, they want his bat in the lineup. He’s the consensus number two prospect in baseball right now behind Minnesota‘s Byron Buxton, with MLB.com writing that a lot of his offensive skills are already playing in games:

During his brief time in the big leagues, Bogaerts showed the kind of special player he can be. He uses his smooth, balanced swing to make hard contact and drive the ball to all fields. He has big raw power and already knows how to use it in games.

That last part, about being able to hit for power in games, is critical to explain why Bogaerts will be special in 2014. A lot of young players, especially those who are still growing into their frame like Boston’s shortstop, haven’t developed the muscle or actions/balance with their swing to drive the ball consistently. 

Bogaerts hasn’t had that problem. Even coming up through the minors, when he was still refining his offensive tools, Bogaerts slugged over .500 in 2011 and 2012 before falling back to a .477 mark in 2013. 

Everything he hits is with authority. Take a look at these two swings, one from the regular season and one from the World Series. Both come on fastballs about belt high, very hittable pitches. 

One thing you will see from a lot of young players, especially when they have pitches to drive, is a tendency to swing as hard as possible to make sure the ball goes a long way. 

Bogaerts‘ brilliance is how he doesn’t ever change his swing. It’s always the same balanced, quick stroke through the zone that finds the barrel and goes with pitches. There is nothing at all fundamentally different in the swing against New York and St. Louis, but the second pitch moves away from him, so he drives it to right-center field for extra bases. 

That textbook approach to hitting is why Bogaerts is going to be special right away. In his writeup for ESPN’s Top 100 prospects list (subscription required), Keith Law wrote that Bogaerts “could be Troy Tulowitzki with a little less arm, and that’s an MVP-caliber player.”

The world got a small look at how good Bogaerts is as a 21-year-old, but now we will get a real taste of what this young man will do in Boston for years to come. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

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Spring training has barely begun, and already, a trade involving a trio of prospects has taken place.

On Thursday, a swap occurred between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Washington Nationals, per Bill Ladson of MLB.com, in which the most recognizable name is catcher Jose Lobaton, a backup catcher whose name, let’s face it, isn’t all that recognizable in the first place.

The other three pieces are all prospects with some intriguing upside. Joining Lobaton in D.C. are young outfielder Drew Vettleson and lefty Felipe Rivero, while right-hander Nathan Karns (pictured), a 26-year-old who made three starts for the Nats last year, is heading to St. Petersburg.

This transaction occurred on the eve of spring training, so imagine what others might happen once the exhibition games actually get going. Over the next handful of weeks, prospects in big league camp will have a chance to show what they can do which might make them better known and more attractive to teams looking to acquire young, cheap talent for the future.

On the other side, any team that’s going to consider giving up a prospect this close to the start of the 2014 season would not only expect to be a contender this year but also view the youngster as a commodity currently blocked by a big leaguer. Having an area of need or two would also help necessitate such a move.

Admittedly, though, it’s hard to fathom a team willing to surrender anything more than a second- or third-tier prospect at this point, unless an unforeseen and catastrophic injury befalls a key member of the 25-man roster or a too-good-to-pass-up proposal comes to light at the last minute.

Still, here’s a handful of intriguing prospects who will be in big league camps this month and next, giving them an opportunity to open some eyes and turn themselves into potential trade chips before the real games begin.

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It’s doubtful the St. Louis Cardinals would have finished with the best record in the National League and reached the World Series last season without the contributions from their rookie pitchers.

Using 12 different rookies during the regular season, the Cardinals’ collection of promising young arms posted a 36-22 record with a 3.17 ERA, 8.79 K/9 and 2.99 BB/9 in 553.2 innings.

Among those rookies was a trio of homegrown right-handers: Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha.

While Miller opened the year in the team’s big league rotation and served as one of the National League’s better rookie hurlers before the All-Star break, Martinez and Wacha arrived later in the summer to help push the Cardinals into the postseason.

However, in spite of their respective successes last season, Miller, Martinez and Wacha each have the potential to be even better in 2014.

Shelby Miller

Shelby Miller wasn’t just one of the top rookie pitchers during the first half of the season, he was one of the top pitchers in the game. Over his first 18 starts, the 23-year-old posted a 2.92 ERA and .225 opponents’ batting average with 112 strikeouts in 104.2 innings.

The Cardinals wisely offered Miller additional rest surrounding the All-Star break after he showed signs of wearing down in late June and into July. Although he had an up-and-down second half, the right-hander completed the final month of the season on a positive note by going 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA over five starts.

Miller’s season highlight came on May 10 in his home start against the Colorado Rockies, when he surrendered a leadoff single to Eric Young Jr. before retiring the next 27 hitters in order.

Since the beginning of the postseason, however, Miller essentially has been a non-factor for the Cardinals. With fellow rookie Wacha thriving in the starting rotation after a strong finish to the regular season, manager Mike Matheny relegated Miller to the bullpen for the NLDS, mostly due to his season-long struggles against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As a pitcher who throws his four-seam fastball 70.86 percent of the time (per Brooks Baseball), Miller can be hittable when his command of the pitch isn’t sharp. The right-hander surrendered six or more hits in 13 starts last year and allowed 12 home runs—he gave up 20 total home runs during the regular the season—in those games.

Given his heavy four-seamer use, one would think that Miller also features some form of changeup so as to neutralize left-handed batters. Yet, Miller’s changeup is actually his least used and developed offering, and the right-hander threw it only 6.41 percent of the time last season (per Brooks Baseball).

Even though Miller’s curveball is only a little better than average, his lack of a consistent changeup makes it his go-to secondary offering against lefties by default—which isn’t a good thing. The right-hander threw his curveball 16.41 percent of the time against left-handed batters in 2013, and they collectively batted .302 (.378 BABIP) with a .453 slugging percentage.

Miller used his changeup sparingly against lefties last season—11.46 percent of the time, to be exact—which speaks to both his lack of confidence in the pitch and its overall ineffectiveness (.333 BA, .433 SLG, .370 BABIP). Additionally, left-handed batters posted higher line-drive (6.17 percent) and fly-ball (5.56 percent) rates versus his changeup than either of his other two offerings. And to make matters ever more complicated, the 23-year-old struggled to control the pitch for the duration of the regular season, throwing it for a strike only 20.37 percent of the time.

In order for Miller to improve his changeup, he will first need to find a comfortable and repeatable release point for the pitch. Last season it was all over the place, varying from start to start:

Because Miller employs a clean and efficient delivery, the right-hander should theoretically be able to develop a consistent arm slot for a changeup. The pitch will probably never be a dynamic offering, but it still has the potential to be at least average if his control improves.

Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez struggled to find a role following his big league debut on May 3, as he was used sparingly out of the bullpen and bounced between the minor and major leagues as the organization seemingly pondered how to best utilize the 22-year-old.

By the end of the regular season, though, the flame-throwing right-hander emerged as manager Mike Matheny‘s preferred option in the late innings and ultimately served as the team’s setup man throughout the postseason.

Martinez appeared in 12 games between the team’s three playoff series, registering a 3.55 ERA and .167 opponents’ batting average with three walks and 11 strikeouts in 12.2 innings.

But in spite of his success as a reliever, the Cardinals have already stated that Martinez won’t be working out of the bullpen next season. According to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, Martinez will enter spring training next season in the mix for a spot in the starting rotation.

The decision to use Martinez as a starter shouldn’t come as a surprise. Since entering the Cardinals’ system in 2010, the right-hander has pitched in 68 minor league games and was the starter in all but one of them. During that span, he posted a 2.69 ERA with 340 strikeouts and a 2.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 327.2 innings.

Yet, in his only start in the major leagues last season (Aug. 8), Martinez allowed four earned runs on seven hits and three walks in 4.2 innings against the Dodgers.

Specifically, Martinez’s arm slot in that start was noticeably different than it was out of the bullpen during the final month of the regular season and into the playoffs:

In addition to working from a slightly lower vertical-release point, the right-hander also shifted toward the first-base side of the rubber, as evidenced by his higher horizontal-release point:

Martinez had flashes of brilliance during the season but never enjoyed the success that his pure stuff suggested. However, after making the adjustment to his positioning on the rubber, the right-hander finally started to dominate and miss bats with his filthy sinker-slider combination:

Regardless of whether Martinez is used as a starter or reliever next season, he stands to benefit from developing a better feel for the movement on his sinker. As we saw last year, hitters, especially right-handed hitters, will try to achieve a point of contact in front of the plate before the pitch runs too far inside and sinks out of the zone. Therefore, even though he was able to keep the ball on the ground (17.65 percent ground-ball rate) last season, opposing hitters still were able to barrel it too consistently and ultimately posted a .320 batting average (.348 BABIP).

Based on that information, Martinez has considerable room for improvement next season if he can learn to throw his sinker to the outside corner of the plate against right-handed batters. In theory, it should at least prevent them from sitting on something on the inner half like last year, which usually translates to more off-balance swings and weaker contact.

Michael Wacha

Though he was first promoted to the major leagues in late May, Michael Wacha didn’t join the Cardinals’ starting rotation until September. Pitching in the heat of a playoff race roughly one year after the Cardinals made him the No. 19 overall pick in the 2012 draft, the 22-year-old posted a 1.72 ERA, .198 opponents’ batting average and 28/10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.1 innings (five starts) over the final month of the season.

However, it wasn’t until his final regular-season start that Wacha put himself on the map as one of the game’s more promising young arms.

Taking the mound against the Washington Nationals on Sept. 24, Wacha came within one out of a no-hitter before allowing an infield single to Ryan Zimmerman. As a result of his late-season success, the right-hander was named to the Cardinals’ postseason starting rotation ahead of fellow rookie and 15-game winner Shelby Miller.

Well, needless to say it was the right decision, as Wacha finished his first postseason with a 4-1 record, 2.64 ERA and 33-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.2 innings (five starts), and captured NLCS MVP honors along the way.

In order for Wacha to take a step forward next year, the right-hander must continue to trust his breaking ball as he did in the 2013 postseason.

After throwing his fastball and changeup more than 90 percent of the time during the regular season, Wacha (as well as Yadier Molina) started mixing in more curveballs during the playoffs to avoid becoming too predictable. The change in strategy ultimately paid off for the right-hander, as his whiffs-per-swing rate jumped from 14.29 percent in September to 31.58 percent in October:

But in spite of his improvement last October, Wacha generally struggled to consistently miss bats with his curveball last season, as the right-hander’s 9.09 percent whiff-per-swing rate ranked 225th among all starting pitchers (per Brooks Baseball’s PITCHf/x leaderboard).

Even though Wacha has a good feel for his curveball and sequences it well in relation to his fastball and changeup, the reality is the pitch lacks dynamic break.

Wacha’s curveball averaged -6.17 inches of vertical movement last season, which ranked 110th among all starting pitchers. For the sake of comparison, Adam Wainwright’s curveball ranked 15th with -9.40 inches of vertical movement.

Generally speaking, the right-hander’s curveball lacks a tight rotation and reaches its peak too quickly en route to the plate. As a result, opposing hitters are able to recognize the spin early and at least get a piece of the offering. Last season, Wacha’s 45.45 percent fouls-per-swing rate was the third highest among starters that threw at least 40 curveballs.

The good news is that Wacha’s breaking ball has already improved exponentially since entering the Cardinals’ system in 2012. And while it’s completely unrealistic to think the pitch will develop into a Wainwright-like hammer, the 22-year-old’s advanced command and overall confidence should help the pitch play above its grade for a long, long time.

All PITCHf/x data courtesy of Brooks Baseball

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Being a prospect in Major League Baseball requires a degree of patience that few people in the world can match. These are players who, for the most part, have been signed or drafted to multi-million dollar contracts when they are between the ages of 18 and 21. 

One common term you will hear, especially during the spring when some stats can get inflated by small sample sizes and inconsistent competition is “MLB ready.” Is this guy ready to step into the big leagues today and play a significant role for their team?

As spring begins, there are many notable prospects coming into camp with that ability, or with a few minor tweaks that can be worked out at the highest level of professional baseball. 

Even though there are more than 25 prospects who fall into the MLB ready category, or are incredibly close, we wanted to highlight the best of the best in this particular group. 

Keep in mind that these are the players whose skills would translate to the big league’s best right now, so a lot of prospects who will appear high on a top 100-ranked list (Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, etc.) will not be seen here because they have a lot to work on and won’t be ready until late in 2014 at the earliest. 

Note: All stats courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted. 

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It’s hard to believe it’s been roughly two decades since the last great wave of shortstop prospects reached the major leagues.

From 1994 to 1998, Major League Baseball saw the arrival of five future All-Star shortstops: Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada.

Though each player debuted at a different time during that five-year span, they all still managed to put together impressive and lengthy—and in Jeter’s case, Hall of Fame—careers at the highest level. More significantly, the group’s offensive potential, both individually and collectively, set a new precedent for shortstop prospects in the major leagues.

However, with a majority of the aforementioned shortstops having either already retired (Garciaparra, Renteria) or essentially been forced out of professional baseball due to issues related to performance-enhancing drugs (Rodriguez, Tejada), the stage seemingly has been set for a new wave of young players to make an impact in the major leagues.

While I am yet to release Prospect Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects for 2014—be on the lookout for it at the beginning of next week—it shouldn’t come as a surprise to learn that five shortstops will rank within the overall top 10 for the upcoming season.

Headlining the group is Xander Bogaerts of the Boston Red Sox, who represents the most advanced shortstop of the group given his experience (and success) in the major leagues last season. However, Javier Baez (Cubs), Carlos Correa (Astros), Francisco Lindor (Indians) and Addison Russell (Athletics) aren’t far behind the 21-year-old and are likely to follow his lead and reach the highest level within the next two years.

Here’s an in-depth look at MLB’s next golden era of shortstop prospects.

Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

After a sluggish start to the season at High-A Daytona, Javier Baez eventually caught fire and received a well-deserved promotion to Double-A Tennessee in late June. After that, the then-20-year-old was one of the most productive hitters in the minor leagues with a .983 OPS and 20 home runs over his last 54 games.

Between both levels, Baez batted .282/.341/.578 with 98 runs scored, 75 extra-base hits (37 home runs), 111 RBI, 20 stolen bases and a 147-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 130 games.

A right-handed hitter, Baez generates obscene raw power with his extremely strong wrists, elite bat speed—the best in the minor leagues—and violent swing. He still struggles with pitch recognition and flails at too many breaking balls out of the zone, though it doesn’t detract from his overall production.

While his pitch recognition may need further refinement in the minor leagues, Baez could still probably post an .800-plus OPS in The Show right now. Baez has the upside of the game’s most productive hitter during his prime, with the potential to put up 30-plus home runs annually.

Baez is an impressive athlete with smooth, natural defensive actions, and a plus arm that’s ideal for the left side of the infield. However, he struggles to control his body and slow down the game at shortstop, which helps explain the high error totals in the early stages of his career.

Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

Assigned to Double-A Portland again to begin the 2013 season, Xander Bogaerts posted a .909 OPS with 24 extra-base hits and a 51-35 K/BB ratio in 56 games before a midseason promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket. Bogaerts didn’t skip a beat at the more advanced level, posting an .822 OPS with nine home runs and an improved 44-28 K/BB ratio in 60 games.

As a result of his regular-season success, the Red Sox ultimately included Bogaerts on their postseason roster. The youngster rewarded the team by batting .296/.412/.481 with nine runs scored, four extra-base hits and six walks in 12 games. More importantly, he played a major role in Boston winning the World Series.

While Bogaerts has always projected to be a plus hitter in the major leagues, he’s raised the bar over the last year by adding strength and sharpening his approach. With lightning-quick bat speed and preternatural bat-to-ball skills, the 21-year-old could easily sell out for power if desired, but he instead stays short and quick to the ball and utilizes his tremendous plate coverage.

However, as Bogaerts matures, both physically and as a hitter, he should be capable of hitting 20-25 home runs in a given season.

Bogaerts is an outstanding athlete with slightly above average speed and similar range at shortstop, and he improved his long-term projection at the position last season with better body control and more accurate throws across the infield.

Red Sox third base coach and defensive guru Brian Butterfield spoke very highly of Bogaerts to the Boston Herald last week:

One thing we did notice with Xander is he didn’t seem to be overwhelmed by anything. Moving to a position like third base (in the playoffs), you’re concerned that a guy might be scared to death. But he’s mature beyond his years. He lives for the moment. The bigger the situation, the more relaxed he is. He wants to be a great player.

Scouts remain divided about his chances of remaining at shortstop, but there’s no question that he has the glove and arm strength for the left side of the infield.

Bogaerts has the ceiling of one of baseball’s top players, with the potential to offer star-level production at a premium position. Even if he’s forced to slide over to the hot corner, Bogaerts’ potent bat should make him a perennial All-Star.

Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

Correa, the No. 1 overall selection in the 2012 draft, proved to be more advanced than expected last year as one of the younger everyday players at a full-season level, showcasing impact potential on all sides of the ball as well as an overall mature feel for the game.

Making his full-season debut at Low-A Quad Cities, the then-18-year-old batted .320/.405/.467 with 45 extra-base hits (nine home runs), 86 RBI, 10 stolen bases and an 83-58 K/BB in 117 games.

Correa’s bat proved to be far more advanced than anyone expected last year. The right-handed hitter has a simple, direct swing in which he attacks the ball and utilizes the entire field. However, it’s the advanced plate discipline and pitch recognition that will make him a special hitter in a few years.

Despite his size and present strength, Correa has a swing geared toward consistent hard contact rather than over-the-fence pop. That being said, he’s already an extra-base machine who will undoubtedly develop more power as he matures physically.

The 6’4”, 205-pounder has fluid actions despite size, showing excellent instincts with above-average speed. His arm is a legit plus-plus tool (an absolute cannon) that’s ideal for a career at shortstop. Even though he has soft hands and a smooth transfer, Correa can struggle with body control at times and is still learning some of the intricacies of the position.

Addison Russell, Oakland Athletics

As a result of his impressive pro debut in 2012, Addison Russell received an aggressive assignment to High-A Stockton to open the 2013 season. As one of the youngest everyday players at the level, the then-19-year-old batted .275/.377/.508 with 85 runs scored, 56 extra-base hits (17 home runs) and 21 stolen bases in 504 plate appearances.

At the end of the year, the A’s promoted Russell to Triple-A Sacramento for the team’s stretch run, though he went just 1-for-13 with nine strikeouts in three games.

Russell has the makings of an All-Star shortstop, with four above-average or better tools that will only improve with experience. The right-handed hitter’s combination of plus bat speed and a deep point of contact should produce above-average to plus power, if not more. Also, given his ability to use the entire field, Russell should always tally a high number of doubles and triples.

The 20-year-old’s game features some swing-and-miss at the present (125-61 K/BB last season), though that can at least be partially attributed to his status as a young player facing advanced pitching. Russell is a plus runner with the athleticism, range and arm strength to stick at shortstop, as well as the instincts to swipe 20 bags annually.

Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

Francisco Lindor’s rapid ascension through the minor leagues continued in 2013, as the then-teenager batted .306/.373/.410 with 26 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases at High-A Carolina before finishing the season with a strong showing (.801 OPS in 91 plate appearances) at the Double-A level.

Regarded as the best defensive shortstop in the minor leagues, Lindor is an absolute wizard with the glove and has the potential to be an elite defensive shortstop in the major leagues.

Even if the switch-hitter’s bat doesn’t develop as expected, he has the potential to enjoy a long, successful career in the major leagues based on his defensive prowess, superb instincts and ability to control the speed of the game.

With that being said, the 20-year-old shows all the signs of becoming an average or better hitter, as he has an advanced approach (46-49 K/BB in 464 plate appearances last season) and smooth stroke from both sides of the plate.

Future Projections and Tool Grades

As was the case with the wave of young shortstops in the mid to late ’90s, the incoming class is a collection of top-notch athletes with loud, game-changing tools on all sides of the ball.

Yet when looking specifically at the five tools (all future projections and based on the 20-80 scouting scale) across the group, there surprisingly isn’t one player who stands out in multiple categories.

Hit: Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts offered a taste of his offensive potential in the major leagues last season (especially in the postseason), showing mature plate discipline and pitch recognition as well as an understanding of how to use the entire field.

The fact that he’s already established such a consistent approach and overall feel for the strike zone is a testament to his ability to make adjustments against advanced competition. Of the five shortstop prospects, Bogaerts has the potential to post the highest batting averages in his prime.

As the only player with big league experience, not to mention a spot on Boston’s infield for the upcoming season, Bogaerts arguably has the best chance at becoming the first All-Star in the group. In all honesty, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened this year. He’s simply that talented.

Power: Javier Baez

Yes, you read that correctly—Javy Baez has 80-grade power. Every aspect of his power profile is elite: the bat speed, his sheer strength, the hand-eye coordination, the leveraged bat path and extension after contact and the ability to jump the yards to all fields.

Everything. Based on all those components, it’s hard not to see him blasting 30-plus home runs over a full season in the major leagues, and he’ll probably claim his share of home run titles too.

However, with current shortstop Starlin Castro under contract through the 2019 season, Baez’s future position in the major leagues is currently up in the air. If the Cubs choose to deploy him at other positions during spring training, such as second and third base (which will create other logjams), then expect the 21-year-old to also be considered at both positions during the regular season.

It will be difficult for the organization to keep his potent bat in the minor leagues next year because everyone knows he’s going to rake at Double- and/or Triple-A. And if he debuts by mid-summer, then there’s a good chance he’ll pace all rookies in home runs and slugging percentage.

Run: Addison Russell

Addison Russell is arguably the most well-rounded shortstop of the bunch, as he’s a plus athlete with strong future grades for all five tools. Besides Carlos Correa, Russell seemingly has more untapped potential than his peers as a result of his aggressive assignment to High-A last season.

He is expected to hit for more average and power as his baseball skills mature and he learns to make adjustments at the dish, and like all other aspects of his game, his defense should improve with more experience.

Though he and Francisco Lindor are both 55-grade runners, Russell possesses more natural and explosive speed, whereas Lindor’s is rooted in his instincts and first step.

Russell represents the only impact prospect in the A’s farm system headed into the 2014 season. Assuming he opens the 2014 season in Double-A and stays healthy, it’s probable that Russell will debut as Oakland’s big league shortstop before his 21st birthday.

Arm: Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa is arguably the most physically blessed shortstop of the group, with great athleticism for his size and the potential for four plus-or-better tools at maturity, including plus-plus arm strength that produces high-90s lasers across the infield.

Personally, I absolutely love this guy. Everything about him screams future superstar, including makeup that is off the charts for a player his age, which will undoubtedly continue to aid his success in the minor leagues.

Given his overwhelming success last season as one of the younger everyday players in the Midwest League, Correa should receive an assignment to High-A next year and likely reach Double-A as a 19-year-old. But who knows; with his makeup, Correa could even get a taste of the major leagues if he continues to blow past the expectations for his development.

Field: Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is hands down the best defensive shortstop in the minor leagues, and it won’t be long until he holds the same title at the highest level.

Compared to his peers, the 20-year-old is a lock to remain at the position long-term, with 70-grade defensive chops and a feel for controlling the game that are both rare for a player his age. While his success in the major leagues will always be tied to his glove, Lindor will likely continue to surpass expectations at the plate thanks to his contact-oriented approach and advanced plate discipline.

Lindor reached Double-A last year as a 19-year-old, receiving a midseason promotion to the level after thriving in the High-A Carolina League.

With a realistic ceiling of the best defensive shortstop in the major leagues, anything Lindor offers at the plate is merely a bonus. He’ll open the 2014 season back at Double-A with the potential to reach Cleveland well ahead of schedule.

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Oscar Taveras was widely regarded as the top offensive prospect in baseball headed into the 2013 season and was expected to make an immediate impact upon reaching the major leagues with the St. Louis Cardinals.

But Taveras’ highly anticipated campaign didn’t unfold as expected, as he suffered an ankle injury that limited him to only 46 games at Triple-A and ultimately required season-ending surgery.

However, according to a recent report from MLB.com, the 21-year-old outfielder’s ankle feels “100 percent” in advanced of spring training.

Though Taveras isn’t a lock to make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, he’s still expected to compete for a job as the team’s everyday right fielder in spring training. Even if he doesn’t break camp in the major leagues, Taveras is poised for a breakout Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season in 2014.

Background

After a strong showing between a pair of rookie levels in 2010, Taveras was moved up to Low-A Quad Cities the following year for his full-season debut. The then-19-year-old jumped on the prospect radar by tearing the cover off the ball at the more advanced level, batting .386/.444/.584 with 40 extra-base hits (eight home runs) in 347 plate appearances.

As a result of his overwhelming success, Taveras was promoted directly from Low- to Double-A for the 2012 season, where he destroyed Texas League pitching to the tune of a .321/.380/.572 batting line with 67 extra-base hits (23 home runs), 94 RBI and a 56-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 531 plate appearances.

It also marked the third consecutive season in which the left-handed hitter posted a .300-plus batting average and .500-plus slugging percentage.

Moved up to Triple-A Memphis for the 2013 season—a season in which he was expected to make an impact in the major leagues—the 21-year-old suffered a high ankle sprain in late May that continued to bother him throughout the season and led to two separate stints on the disabled list.

There was a glimmer of hope in mid-August when reports had Taveras nearing a rehab assignment, fueling the belief that the outfielder could still receive a September call-up. Unfortunately, it was announced a few days later that he needed season-ending surgery.

The surgery went well, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, though Taveras was restricted to a walking boot for the following eight weeks.

Overall, Taveras batted .306/.341/.462 with 17 extra-base hits last season, but was limited to only 186 plate appearances with Memphis.

Scouting Report

Taveras features an explosive, yet well-balanced, left-handed swing that enables him to keep the bat head in the zone for an extended period of time. As a result, he seemingly always achieves a favorable point of contact, while his extension through the ball allows him to generate backspin carry to all fields and amass a significant number of extra-base hits.

Though Taveras has plenty of strength and raw power, his in-game power is more so a product of him being a pure hitter.

However, it’s Taveras’ unparalleled hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball ability that separates him from other highly regarded young hitters. Additionally, the 21-year-old’s ability to drive the ball the other way is already more advanced than a lot of big league hitters and only stands to improve with additional experience against top-notch pitching.

Over the last two seasons, he has drawn an increasing number of comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero due to his aggressive, free-swinging approach, as well as his knack for consistently centering pitches throughout (and even outside) the strike zone.

Taveras simply hits everything: fastballs, breaking balls, off-speed pitches, same-side pitching, pitcher’s pitches—you name it and he can barrel it, effortlessly. And while his approach may be challenged more at the major league level, Taveras should always make enough contact to negate any strikeout-related concerns.

Though he has considerable experience in center field, Taveras’ defensive profile is better suited for a corner outfielder position—likely right field given the presence of Matt Holliday in left. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offseason acquisition of Peter Bourjos eliminated any temptation for the team to deploy Taveras in center field during future seasons.

2014: What to Expect

The question isn’t if Oscar Taveras will make an impact in the major leagues next season; rather, it’s a question of when.

As previously mentioned, the Cardinals are likely to open the 2014 season with Holliday in left field and Bourjos in center. Meanwhile, the need to have both Allen Craig and Matt Adams’ respective right- and left-handed bats in the lineup means Craig is likely to get the nod in right field next season.

So, where does that leave Taveras?

Well, Taveras will get the chance to compete for a job this spring, presumably in right field, though the team may offer him playing time at both corner spots to ensure he receives consistent (and much-needed) at-bats.

However, based upon the strength of the Cardinals’ probable outfield configuration of Holliday-Bourjos-Craig, not to mention the fact that Taveras had only 186 plate appearances in 2013, the 21-year-old is likely to open the year at Triple-A.

But that could change in a hurry this spring if Adams or Craig were to suffer an injury, or if Adams struggles at the plate and forces the organization to use Craig almost exclusively at first base to open the year. Regardless of what transpires with his future teammates, Taveras will have to do his part by tearing the cover off the ball during spring training in order to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

That being said, the Cardinals aren’t known for rushing its offensive prospects to the major leagues. This is especially applicable for Taveras, who is expected to rake upon reaching the major leagues whenever that ultimately occurs.

The two main statistical projection models (per FanGraphs), Oliver and ZIPS, both suggest that Taveras will enjoy sustained success in the majors next season. (Note: The Oliver projection model works under the assumption that a player spends then entire season in the major leagues.)

As one can see, both models believe that Taveras will post an OPS in the .779 to .789 range to go along with a .300-plus BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and solid strikeout and walk rates.

If Taveras doesn’t open the season in the major leagues, then he’s unlikely to be promoted until May, at the earliest, unless there’s an injury to one of the team’s aforementioned outfielders. If that is the case, then the ZIPS projections provide an accurate idea of what to expect from Taveras next season.

However, based on the 21-year-old’s offensive prowess and track record against advanced competition, he’s more likely to surpass those statistical expectations than disappoint next year. And so long as Taveras spends a good chunk of the 2014 season in the major leagues, it’s hard to envision him not make a strong bid for Rookie of the Year honors in the National League.

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On a superficial level, the New York Yankees spending nearly $500 million on Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Masahiro Tanaka this offseason makes sense because the team missed the playoffs last year and had significant questions about the future. 

However, looking at the state of the Yankees on a much deeper level, spending all that money on four free agents was necessary due to how poorly the franchise has developed talent in recent years. 

Even a team with pockets as deep as New York’s can only rely on signing (mostly) 30-something free agents for so long before the bottom drops out. We saw it last year, when the team somehow managed to win 85 games with a patchwork lineup that included players like Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells. 

One way to try and replenish a farm system is spending a lot of money on international free agents, which Andrew Marchand and Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York report is going to be the team’s plan this summer: 

However, according to a baseball insider, the Yankees could spend as much as $18 million this summer on players from Latin America, who already make up more than 27 percent of baseball’s 30 active rosters, including some of its biggest stars, such as former Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano.

The same report also notes that the Yankees will have a little more than $2 million to spend on international free agents starting July 2.

Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams that go over their spending total incur financial penalties and limit the total that can be spent on an individual player the next year, per MLB.com.

According to the ESPN New York report, since the Yankees reportedly plan to breeze past their allotted money, they could pay as much as $12 million in penalties and would be limited to spending no more than $250,000 per international signee in 2015. 

With an aggressive plan apparently in place, will the Yankees come out ahead when we examine things after July 2?

Let’s take a look at this from three different angles. 

The Talent

The good news for New York is that this year’s crop of international players appears to be very rich in talent. The Yankees reportedly have agreed to verbal deals with several players already, according to Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com (subscription required). 

Since players can’t officially sign until July 2, McDaniel notes, a lot of deals get agreed to beforehand but will sometimes fall apart, which is why he didn’t report the names of the players in New York’s orbit. 

For the Yankees to try their hand at adding talent to the farm system through the international market speaks to how desperate they are to fix some of their problems. 

However, therein lies another problem that must be pointed out: Adding talent to the system hasn’t been the issue for the Yankees. They’ve had plenty of talent in recent years, but getting that talent to reach its ceiling in the big leagues has been the issue. 

In 2011, Baseball America ranked the Yankees’ system fifth in baseball, yet among their top 10 prospects for that year, the only one to carve out any kind of MLB career to this point is backup shortstop Eduardo Nunez. 

But even as we are talking about the Yankees spending millions of dollars on international players and how exciting some of these players can be, remember that we are talking about 16-year-old kids. It’s going to be at least two or three years before they pop up in full-season leagues and four years before they make it to the big leagues—and that’s only if everything goes right. 

How often do things go 100 percent right with one prospect, let alone a handful of them?

The Yankees are potentially playing a dangerous game and betting a lot of money on their future in doing so. 

The System

We’ve reached a point in the offseason where every major baseball outlet is releasing its list of farm system and prospect rankings. It’s an exciting time for fans everywhere who want to learn about the next generation of stars, but it’s also a reality check for some fans, including those of the Yankees. 

ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required) ranked the Yankees’ system 20th heading into 2014, while naming three prospects (Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin and Mason Williams) in the back half of the Top 100. 

MLB.com ranked Gary Sanchez as the 47th-best prospect in baseball but acknowledged that questions about his ability to play catcher (or lack thereof) limit his upside. 

The Yankees have played in the international waters before, investing a lot of money in talent that has failed to develop as expected or still has a long way to go before reaching its full potential. 

Sanchez was a $2.5 million bonus baby out of the Dominican Republic in 2009. Jesus Montero, who was traded to Seattle in the Michael Pineda deal, signed for a reported $2 million in 2006. 

While the jury is still out on Sanchez, Montero has been a disaster in Seattle. Once a top-10 prospect, Montero has hit .258/.303/.396 in parts of three MLB seasons. 

Since Montero was traded before playing full time in the big leagues, the Yankees don’t have to claim him as their own, but it doesn’t speak well on them that they gave him such a big bonus with nothing to show for it. 

The point is that for all the money the Yankees can and do throw at their problems, as they have in free agency this winter, at some point heads have to roll in the scouting and development department. 

If you are so desperate that players like Hafner, Wells, Lyle Overbay, Jayson Nix and Mark Reynolds are upgrades, something has clearly broken in your system. 

The Draft

Another problem the Yankees have had is bad drafting. Some of that can be explained by the fact they are usually one of the best teams in baseball, picking near the back of the first round when all the impact talent is off the board. 

But let’s look back through the last 10 years of New York Yankees draft classes. Since 2005, the only first-round pick they have drafted and developed is Joba Chamberlain (2006), who is now in Detroit. 

Other players have had success in other organizations, like Ian Kennedy (2006) and Gerrit Cole (2008, didn’t sign). 

Cole wasn’t their fault, as he reportedly told the Yankees that he wasn’t going to sign with them because he wanted to go to UCLA, but the last 10 years of first-round picks are a series of failures on their part. 

Cito Culver was one of the most surprising (in a bad way) picks of the 2010 draft. ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required) wrote that scouts felt Culver was “a third- or fourth-rounder,” but the Yankees popped him with the 32nd pick.

Dante Bichette Jr. was the 51st pick of the 2011 draft and has yet to make it out of Low-A, hitting a paltry .214/.292/.331 line in 114 games last season. 

The jury is still out on Ty Hensley (2012), Eric Jagielo, Aaron Judge and Ian Clarkin (all 2013), but early reports from Bleacher Report Lead Prospect Writer Mike Rosenbaum infer that those four project more as average (at best) big leaguers than stars. 

Much like it does with international spending, the new CBA prevents teams from overspending in the draft because Bud Selig hates clubs paying amateur talent a fraction of what free agents make to improve their future. 

Despite these limitations, teams have found ways to make themselves better in the draft. The St. Louis Cardinals got major contributions from virtually all of their top prospects last year, including Shelby Miller (2009), Matt Adams (2009), Matt Carpenter (2009), Lance Lynn (2008), Trevor Rosenthal (2009) and Michael Wacha (2012). 

Granted, most of those players were drafted before the new CBA was in place, but it still doesn’t excuse what the Yankees have done. 

That’s just dating back to 2008 for the Cardinals, when there hasn’t one viable first-round pick for the Yankees since 2005. They have to start drafting better while also playing the international free-agent game in order to repair their farm system.

The End Result

Much of the discussion so far has been about what’s wrong with the Yankees’ reported plan to spend big on international free agents or the faults within their scouting and development staff in recent years, yet there is some upside to this strategy. 

Simple logic will tell you that the more talent you add to a system, the more likely you are to find at least one big leaguer.

There is always going to be volatility with prospects, especially when you are talking about 16-year-olds who haven’t fully matured physically, but if you have four, five, six or seven different players in front of you, something is bound to stick. 

Going on a spending spree this year to fix the farm system’s problems, though, is like putting a Band-Aid on a broken leg. It might stop the bleeding temporarily and even increase their rankings on prospect lists in 2015 and possibly 2016, but eventually the development problems that have plagued the team for years must be addressed in order to get these players where they need to be. 

Money masks problems; it doesn’t fix them. The Yankees aren’t going to change their system overnight. Changing the fortunes of a farm system is a long process that takes more than just signing teenagers to multimillion-dollar contracts. 

Look at what the Astros have done in the last three years to replenish a depleted farm system. The Yankees didn’t have to take things that far, but it takes time, effort and a lot of smart, talented people to bring a system back. 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

Follow @adamwells1985

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Korean right-hander Suk-min Yoon threw a bullpen session on Friday in front of scouts from the Orioles and Giants, according to a report from Korean news service SBS translated by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net.

The interest in Yoon doesn’t come as a surprise; last week, it was reported that four clubs had already made contract offers to the 27-year-old, who is represented by mega-agent Scott Boras.

The last player to make the jump from the Korea Baseball Organization to Major League Baseball was Dodgers’ left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who finished fourth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2013 after posting a 3.00 ERA and 119 ERA+ in 192 innings spanning 30 starts.

So Yoon should be expected to make a Ryu-like impact next season, right?

Not so fast.

Background

Yoon first broke into the KBO as an 18-year-old in 2005, spending the first chunk of his professional career alternating between the Kia Tigers’ starting rotation and bullpen.

In 2011 the right-hander was transitioned into the team’s starting rotation full time and ultimately turned in a breakout performance, registering a 2.45 ERA with a career-best 9.30 K/9 rate in 172.1 innings. Yoon’s overwhelming success in the role earned him league MVP honors, also putting him on the map as a legitimate major league prospect.

Yoon’s breakout performance carried over into the 2012 season, as he posted a 3.12 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 153 innings. However, the right-hander took a step back the following year, as a shoulder injury—which you’ll read more about in a few minutes—forced him to the bullpen for the second half of the season.

Scouting Report

In spite of his background as a highly accomplished KBO hurler, there is less scouting information available on Yoon than there was on Ryu or even Masahiro Tanaka prior to their respective signings.

However, according to Steve Spya of Amazin’ Avenue, here’s what is known about Yoon:

Yoon is on the small side, standing at an even six feet and weighing 180 pounds. He throws in the mid-90s, though, and complements his fastball with a hard, biting slider and a change-up that MLB scouts describe as above average. Though a starter, he has only thrown what we would consider an entire season’s work (~175+ IP) once, in 2011. As best I can gather, the average starter in the KBO throws around 150 to 180 innings, making 25 to 30 starts, per season, often supplementing those starts with relief outings here and there.

Based on the above video, Yoon doesn’t feature a devastating splitter like Tanaka or a tantalizing breaking ball(s) like Yu Darvish. However, as is the case with most Korean and Japanese pitchers, everything he throws has late movement, which should aid Yoon’s effectiveness as he transitions into Major League Baseball.

If Yoon is able to make a smooth transition and hold his own in the major leagues, then it’s reasonable to think that the right-hander can serve as a No. 4 or 5 starter on a first-division team.

Injury Concerns

Though he’s remained healthy for the majority of his professional career in the KBO, Yoon dealt with a shoulder injury in 2013 that limited him to 11 starts (4.16 ERA) and prompted a move to the bullpen for the final months of the season.

As a starter, Yoon’s high-water mark for innings pitched stands is 172.1, which he achieved during his breakout 2011 campaign as a full-time starter.

In theory, the injury could almost make him more appealing to major league teams; the hope is that his recent limited workload might have reduced the mileage on his arm, therefore implying that he’ll have more to offer in the major leagues.

Yet at the same time, any team that signs Yoon will likely do so with the intention of using him as a starter. So don’t expect a team to take a flier on the right-hander without a thorough evaluation of his medical history.

Why He Won’t Be the Next Hyun-Jin Ryu

Prior to signing with the Dodgers, Hyun-Jin Ryu had been lauded for his advanced control, which ultimately translated to a 3.14 strikeout-to-walk rate during his rookie season in 2013.

During Yoon’s nine-year career in the KBO, he posted a strikeout-to-walk rate of 2.75, which offers hope that the right-hander’s strike-throwing tendencies will carry over to his probable career in the major leagues.

However, that’s merely an assumption.

The reality is that Yoon never achieved the year-in, year-out success of Ryu, though that shouldn’t detract from his overall string of accomplishments in the KBO.

Plus, given his recent shoulder injury and extensive experience as a reliever in the KBO, Yoon is anything but a lock to remain in a starting rotation upon joining a major league organization.

Still, in spite of the injury-related concerns and the fact that he’s represented by Scott Boras, there are several teams that have expressed interest in acquiring Yoon’s services:

When he does sign with a team, Yoon will probably receive a contract for two or three years worth roughly $10 million—which speaks to his perceived future value when compared to the six-year, $36 million contract offered to Ryu prior to the 2013 season. And if a team views him strictly as a reliever, then expect Yoon to receive a less flattering contract.

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When it comes to spring training, every fan is interested in getting an early look at baseball’s top prospects.

This year, all eyes will be on Byron Buxton, Prospect Pipeline’s No. 1-overall prospect for the 2014 season, who was invited to major league camp by the Minnesota Twins.

Without a game of experience above the High-A level, it’s extremely doubtful that the 20-year-old outfielder will make the Twins’ Opening Day roster. However, with five legitimate plus tools to his name and baseball skills that transcend his age, Buxton is poised to open eyes this spring and assert his proximity to the major leagues.

2013 in Review

Selected by the Twins with the second-overall pick in the 2012 draft, Buxton had a good (but not great) professional debut later that summer during which he showcased loud tools but also a lack of consistency—especially at the plate.

Splitting the season between the complex level Gulf Coast League and Rookie-level Elizabethton, Buxton batted .248/.344/.448 with 19 extra-base hits, 11 stolen bases and a 41-19 strikeout-to-walk rate in 189 plate appearances.

And then the 2013 season happened.

Buxton emerged as baseball’s top prospect last year in his full-season debut, posting a .944 OPS with 49 extra-base hits (12 home runs), 55 stolen bases in 74 attempts and an impressive 105-76 strikeout-to-walk rate in 574 plate appearances between both Class-A levels—as a 19-year-old nonetheless.

He opened the season on fire at Low-A Cedar Rapids, posting a .944 OPS, 33 extra-base hits (eight home runs), 32 stolen bases and a stellar 56-44 strikeout-to-walk rate in 321 plate appearances.

As a result of his overwhelming success, the Twins decided to promote Buxton to High-A Fort Myers for the second half of the regular season, where he continued to put up monster numbers in spite of the inherent challenges associated with playing in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.

Overall, the then-teenager batted .326/.415/.472 with 16 extra-base hits, 23 stolen bases and a 49-32 strikeout-to-walk rate. Furthermore, Buxton’s final month of the regular season was arguably his best of the year, as he posted a .402/.523/.494 batting line with 16 steals and more walks (20) than strikeouts (16).

In the wake of his historically good full-season debut, the Twins sent Buxton to the prestigious Arizona Fall League to get him additional experience against advanced pitching. However, the toolsy outfielder was unable to maintain his torrid pace at the plate and showed signs of wearing down after playing in 125 games during the regular season. As a result, Buxton batted only .212/.288/.404 with two stolen bases and 15 strikeouts while playing in 12 games for the Glendale Desert Dogs.

To make matters worse, Buxton was shut down toward the end of the AFL with a minor left shoulder injury (bone bruise and tendinitis) that he suffered earlier in the fall, which explains a lot of the swings I saw in person during my week-plus stay in Arizona.

In each look, the explosiveness that I came to love this summer was dialed back, and he appeared slightly tentative at times during games—a telltale sign that he was fearful of swinging through a pitch and worsening an injury.

Thankfully, Buxton’s injury has fully healed over the last few months, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and isn’t expected to be an issue moving forward.

The Tools

Buxton is a rarity in that he’s a teenager with a realistic ceiling of a plus-plus hitter at maturity. While his off-the-charts bat speed and direct path to the ball will give him a chance to hit at the highest level, it’s the mature approach and pitch recognition that could make him one of the game’s top hitters in his prime.

The 20-year-old’s in-game power potential was widely questioned when the Twins drafted him in 2012. However, Buxton’s advanced approach and impressive bat speed allowed it to develop ahead of schedule last season, as he showcased plus raw power to all fields that should ultimately translate to 20-plus home runs annually at maturity. Beyond that, his wheels—which you’ll read more about momentarily—will make him an extra-base machine for the duration of his career and place him among the league leaders in total bases.

Buxton’s 80-grade speed, a product of his insanely good athleticism, is arguably his most impressive tool—which says a lot. In spite of his lack of experience, he’s already an excellent baserunner capable of taking an extra base with relative ease. His speed also caters to his present ability and future potential as a base stealer, and amazingly it plays up even more thanks to his high baseball IQ.

With all that’s already been said about Buxton’s speed and overall baseball aptitude, his projection as an elite defender in center field shouldn’t come as a surprise. Though he has the natural athleticism and speed to run down virtually everything, Buxton’s jumps and aggressive (but direct) routes are especially impressive for a player his age.

Spring Training: What to Expect

Buxton technically participated in his first major league spring training last year prior to his full-season debut, appearing in one game for the Twins before an inevitable re-assignment to minor league camp.

Yet, one game was all Buxton needed to make a strong impression, as the outfielder went 1-for-4 with three runs scored and a pair of stolen bases.

The 20-year-old should receive significant playing time this spring considering he’s already viewed as a potential late-season call-up. The Twins are eager to see how Buxton fares against major league-caliber pitching, and a strong showing against advanced competition could potentially improve his estimated time of arrival in The Show.

Even if Buxton struggles at the plate, his capacity to impact the game on all sides of the ball is impossible to overlook. Basically, the outfielder really can do no wrong this spring.

With five potentially plus tools and a feel for making in-game adjustments, Buxton has the ceiling of an MVP-caliber player in his prime. Assuming he begins the 2014 season at Double-A New Britain and stays healthy, Buxton has a legitimate chance to finish the year in the major leagues.

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Given how the market in Major League Baseball works today, prospects have become more valuable than ever. 

Teams are finding that it costs less to promote, say, a back-end starter who will only cost $500,000 in pre-arbitration years from the minors than to give $45-50 million to a mid-rotation pitcher like Ricky Nolasco or Matt Garza. 

Because of this new market inefficiency, teams are less likely than ever to trade prospects they have multiple years of control over.

The biggest prospect traded so far this offseason is Matt Davidson, who went from Arizona to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for closer Addison Reed. I like Davidson as a third baseman with above-average power and contact issues, but he’s not a star. 

It’s been hard sledding for teams trying to trade expensive veterans, even one as good as David Price, because teams don’t want to trade two or three top prospects and empty their farm system to end up in a situation like the one Toronto is in after going all-in last season. 

However, don’t be surprised to see the trade market pick up later in the year. I would bet that there will be a lot of movement around the July trade deadline. 

So assuming that trade winds do start swirling again, which prospects are most likely to find themselves on the move? Here are five names to watch. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

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