Tag: Prospect Pipeline

MLB Trade Rumors: Updating Top MLB Prospects on the Trade Block, Week 3

Beyond offering hope to fans of struggling teams, prospects serve a more important purpose at this time of the year.

With Major League Baseball’s free agency underway and every team evaluating their rosters for the 2014 season, prospects can be the deciding factor when it comes to an offseason blockbuster trade.

Last year, top-ranked prospects Travis d’Arnaud, Jake Marisnick and Will Myers were each featured (as part of larger packages) in trades for All-Star players and went on to reach the major leagues during the 2013 season.

Because the offseason is still young, there haven’t been many substantiated trade rumors so far involving prospects. 

However, that’s not to say the rumors aren’t out there.

So let’s break down the hottest trade rumors involving top prospects.

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Analyzing All of MLB’s Latest International Free-Agent Rumors, News

The latest news on baseball’s international free-agent front is that a pair of high-profile Cuban players have defected and already established residency in another country.

Right-handed pitcher Raciel Iglesias has established residency in Mexico and is now waiting for clearance to sign with a major league team. Similarly, slick-fielding shortstop Erisbel Barbaro Arruebarruena also defected in the past month and has already established residency in Haiti.

Meanwhile, the inevitable bidding war for negotiation rights with Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka has been delayed, with Nippon Professional Baseball and MLB struggling to see eye to eye on a new positing system.

Here’s a look at the other notable international free-agent rumors from around the league.

 

Raciel Iglesias, RHP

Raciel Iglesias has established residency in Mexico, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). The 23-year-old pitcher still has to be cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and Major League Baseball before he can sign with a team.

Iglesias successfully defected from Cuba in October after he was detained on his first attempt after running out of food and water while hiding in the mountains of Isla de la Juventud for the better part of a week.

A 5’11”, 165-pound right-hander, Iglesias works in the 92-95 mph range with his fastball, and he’s likely to add velocity as he develops physically. Iglesias also shows an advanced feel for adding and subtracting to his sweeping breaking ball, throwing the pitch at 76-81 mph.

As of now, Iglesias‘s two-pitch mix has him pegged as a future reliever in the big leagues, just as he’s been in Cuba over the last few years. However, expect the organization that ultimately signs Iglesias to initially give him consideration as a starter. 

 

Erisbel Arruebarruena, SS

Shortstop Erisbel Barbaro Arruebarruena has left Cuba and hopes to sign with a major league team, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America

Because he’s 23 years old and has played in Cuba’s Serie Nacional for six seasons, Arruebarruena will not be subject to the international bonus pools. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez also notes that Arruebarruena has already established residency in Haiti but has not yet been cleared to sign by OFAC and MLB. 

Regarded as the premier defensive shortstop in the Serie Nacional, Arruebarruena also handled the position for the Cuban national team and played in the 2013 World Baseball Classic.

Badler has only great things to say about Arruebarruena‘s defensive prowess:

At 6 feet, 195 pounds, Arruebarruena has clean hands, quick actions and good body control. He’s a below-average runner, but his quick first step and instincts give him good range. He has a quick transfer and a plus-plus arm with accuracy, which allows him to make throws from deep in the hole and turn 4-6-3 double plays with ease. His awareness in the field is advanced and he’s shown the ability to make the barehanded play look routine and make strong throws from different angles. Scouts have called Arruebarruena a magician in the field, and if he can hit enough to be an everyday major league shortstop, he has the potential to win a Gold Glove.

While there’s no doubt that Arruebarruena‘s defense will translate in the major leagues, the same can’t be said about the 23-year-old’s bat, regardless of what his career numbers in Cuba suggest.

Arruebarruena enjoyed a breakout season at the plate in 2011-2012, batting .320/.367/.520 with eight home runs and a 39-19 strikeout-to-walk rate in 306 plate appearances. 

A right-handed hitter, Arruebarruena‘s lack of physical strength is noticeable in the length of his swing and inefficient bat path to the ball. The pitch recognition is also concerning; he struggles to pick up spin out of the pitcher’s hand and frequently overcommits his weight to the front side. As a result, Arruebarruena chases too many offerings outside the strike zone and tries to yank the ball to the pull side when he does get something in the zone.

That being said, don’t expect Arruebarruena to suddenly find his home run stroke in the major leagues. With his swing, we could be talking no more than a handful of dingers in a given season.

I’ve heard the Jose Iglesias comparison tossed around lately and can’t say I disagree. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Arruebarruena turns out to be a lighter-hitting version of Iglesias and posts empty batting averages.

Either way, whoever signs him will do so for the glove.

 

Yenier Bello, C

Yenier Bello left Cuba for Ecuador earlier this year and has since established residency in Mexico. While he’s already been declared a free agent by MLB, the 28-year-old catcher is yet to be cleared to sign by OFAC and the league.

A 5’11”, 225-pound right-handed hitter, Bello batted .274 with 13 home runs in La Serie Nacional in 2011, and he amassed 75 long balls over his last five seasons in Cuba.

 

Rogelio Armenteros, RHP

At 18 years of age, Rogelio Armenteros is younger than most Cuban defectors in recent memory.

In 2009, the right-hander pitched Cuba to a third-place finish in the World Youth Baseball Championship. He spent the 2011-2012 season playing for Equipo Industriales in Cuba’s Serie Nacional

According to Armenteros‘ official website:

Since his departure from Cuba in Mid 2012,  Rogelio has been training in Barcelona, Spain and currently in Miami, FL. Rogelio has developed an impressive array of pitches, which include, four-seam and two-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and change up. His fastball averages between 90-94 Mph’s and he is demonstrating masterful command and control of all his pitches.

If that portrayal is legit, expect the right-hander to draw significant interest from a wide range of teams, especially those that are rebuilding.

 

Yozzen Cuesta, 1B

Yozzen Costa officially defected late in August with the Cuban baseball team playing at the World Baseball Challenge in Prince Georgia, Canada. Basically, he disappeared one day without telling his teammates, leading to the presumption that he was heading to the United States. Costa’s choice to defect came roughly two weeks after prolific slugger Jose Abreu. The 22-year-old has a promising bat and should draw interest from numerous American League teams.  

 

Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, Japan (NPB)

No good news to relay regarding Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who is viewed as the top free-agent pitcher on the open market. Roughly one week ago, negotiations over a new posting system between Nippon Professional Baseball and MLB hit a wall when the two parties disagreed on the posting fee and how it’s arrived at. If they fail to reach an agreement, Tanaka will have to spend two additional seasons playing Japan.

Thankfully, the two sides are preparing to resume talks in the near future, according to the Japan Times.

 

P Javier Gonzalez, P Jorge Hernandez and OF Dayron Varona

According to Cuban reporter Ibrahim Rojas (via MLB Trade Rumors), 19-year-old pitcher Javier Gonzalez, 22-year-old pitcher Jorge Hernandez and 25-year-old outfielder Dayron Varona have all left Cuba.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


How Masahiro Tanaka’s Stuff Will Play Against MLB Hitters

The bidding war for Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka is on hold after Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball were unable to reach an agreement on a new posting system.

However, despite the recent news, the market for the 25-year-old right-hander is alive and well.

Considered by many as the top pitcher in this year’s free-agent class, Tanaka had a historic season pitching for the Rakuten Golden Eagles of the NPB, registering a 24-0 record and a 1.27 ERA during the regular season. He also put together an impressive 30-game unbeaten streak, dating back to his final start of 2012 in the postseason.

Tanaka’s ridiculous streak came to an end on Nov. 2, as the Golden Eagles’ ace was saddled with his first loss in over a year. Starting Game 6 of the NPB title series, the right-hander threw 160 pitches in a 4-2 complete-game loss to the Yomiuri Giants. However, he did return to the mound the next day to pick up the save in the series-deciding Game 7.

Given Tanaka’s overwhelming success this past season in Japan, it’s easy to assume the 25-year-old will make an immediate impact in the major leagues—whenever he finally arrives.

At 6’2” and 200 pounds, Tanaka typically throws his fastball in the low 90s but can reach back for 94-95 mph when necessary. The right-hander also demonstrates a feel for manipulating the pitch through his use of a cutter and two-seam fastball, and his knowledge of how to effectively mix the pitches stands out.

While Tanaka’s fastball velocity isn’t anything special, the pitch plays up thanks a combination of late movement and his ability to paint the outside corners against both left- and right-handed hitters. However, he’ll need to learn to pitch inside more effectively against major league hitters, and it’s likely that his overall command of the offering will be challenged—at least initially. 

Perhaps the biggest knock against Tanaka pertains to the lack of downhill plane on his fastball. After collapsing his back side and dropping low to the ground during his stride, Tanaka’s inconsistent upper-body posture—specifically, his head tilt—prevents him from getting on top of the ball, which, in turn, affects both his velocity and command. And with only average velocity to begin with, he simply can’t afford to linger up in the zone with the pitch against left-handed hitters.

However, Tanaka’s pitching up in the zone is mostly by design and vital to his overall approach—not to mention a major reason he was the top pitcher in the NPB for the last few years.

You see, the right-hander is all about changing hitters’ eye levels. So when he can effectively command the top of the zone with his fastball, it theoretically makes his assortment of breaking and sinking secondary offerings more attractive. 

Tanaka’s best pitch arguably is a plus splitter (or forkball) that is flat-out nasty and features a devastating late tumbling action, causing it to drop off the table and induce ugly swings from opposing hitters. The slider is his go-to breaking ball, thrown with considerable velocity in the mid-80s with tight spin and sharp break—and he throws the pitch a lot, especially to right-handed hitters. When he’s at his best, Tanaka can spot the offering to both sides of the plate and generally avoids making mistakes. 

The right-hander also threw his curveball more this past season, though it projects as more of a show-me pitch in the major leagues given it’s lack of velocity and slow, loopy shape. Tanaka rounds out his arsenal with a changeup that offers a different look in typical slider-splitter counts, but his use of the pitch has decreased in recent years, according to NPBtracker.com, and it’s unlikely to be a weapon in the major leagues.

Because Tanaka relies primarily on a fastball-slider-splitter combination, the popular comparison to Hiroki Kuroda is actually dead-on.

As Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs notes:

The comparison between Tanaka and Kuroda goes beyond just the Japanese thing. Both are right-handed starters. Both have fastballs around the low 90s. Both throw a lot of sliders, both are known for their command, and most importantly, both feature a frequent splitter. There just haven’t been that many splitters among big-league starting pitchers lately, which is one reason why the Kuroda comparison isn’t as lazy as it can seem. Since 2002, just seven starters have thrown at least 20 percent splitters. Just 11 more have thrown at least 10 percent splitters. Included are names like Kuroda, Hideo Nomo, Kenshin Kawakami, and Hisashi Iwakuma. The splitter is a popular pitch in Japan, so Japanese pitchers frequently make for easy comparisons for Japanese pitchers.

Clint Hulsey of I R Fast also supports the comparison:

The easiest comp for Tanaka in the Majors is Hiroki Kuroda since they have somewhat similar fastballs, and rely a lot on splits (assuming you call Tanaka‘s “forkball” a split) and sliders. Obviously they are at totally different moments in their careers (though Kuroda is pitching as effectively, if not more effectively, than he even has), and Kuroda was throwing quite a bit harder at Tanaka‘s age (he was averaging over 92 MPH in 2008 with the Dodgers at age 33).

Even though Tanaka is the top pitcher in the NPB and poised to land a monster free-agent contract, that doesn’t mean he’s a flawless, finished product ready to dominate. 

Since the start of the 2011 season, the right-hander’s strikeouts-per-nine-innings (K/9) rate has dropped from 9.6 to 7.8. Meanwhile, his walks-per-nine-innings (BB/9) rate has quietly climbed from 1.1 to 1.4.

Along those same lines, there is sure to be ongoing concern and endless second-guessing regarding the impact of his heavy workload—his high school is also notorious for dangerously high pitch counts—in Japan on his long-term success in the major leagues. 

But if we’ve learned anything over the years about Japanese pitchers that go through the posting process and sign with a major league team, it’s that stateside success tends to vary case by case.

While one team may view Tanaka as too great a risk for the presumed final price tag due to his workload and mechanics, another organization may believe he’s healthy and primed for a great career in the major leagues. 

The reality is that there’s no way to predict exactly how Tanaka’s body will age. So, while his numbers in Japan don’t necessarily reflect his potential in the major leagues, there’s not much else to go on right now.

Like every pitcher, Tanaka is a risk. However, there’s no question that he has the stuff and feel for pitching to get major league hitters out.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


4 Winter League Standouts That Will Be Impact MLB Players

Where one offseason league ends, another begins—or something like that.

While the Arizona Fall League came to end this past Saturday, the offseason Caribbean Winter Leagues are roughly a month into the regular season and only beginning to heat up.

Many of baseball’s top prospects once again are represented in the Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican and Venezuelan Winter Leagues this year, as they look to get a head start on the 2014 season and improve their chances of cracking a big league Opening Day roster. But, as it is usually the case given the time of year, the prospect pool between the four leagues is comprised of primarily hitters.

So, as we shift our focus from the AFL to the aforementioned offseason leagues, I thought I’d offer a look at four winter league standouts who will make an impact in the major leagues, possibly as early as the 2014 season.

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Predicting Boom or Bust for MLB’s Highest-Upside Prospects

When it comes to prospects, minor league statistics tend to be misleading. That’s not to say they hold no value, but eye-popping numbers alone, especially against inferior competition, are anything but a guarantee that a prospect will succeed in the major leagues. More importantly, they offer minimal insight about a player’s long-term projection.

Rather, prospect evaluation is rooted in the intense scrutiny of a player’s development and progress, whether it be a hitter or pitcher, in all facets of the game. In terms of projection, it all comes down to a player’s perceived ceiling or upside, which represents the best and most optimistic outcome. With almost every prospect, there’s a big gap between his present ability and future potential in the major leagues.

To ensure that the focus of this article is on prospects with the highest ceilings, I decided to include players that are yet to reach the major leagues, so please don’t freak out when you don’t see Taijuan Walker or Xander Bogaerts

Similarly, I avoided highly ranked prospects that comparatively carry less risk, such as Albert Almora, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Oscar Taveras.

Here are my predictions on the boom or bust potential for MLB highest-upside prospects.

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10 Most Impressive Prospects of the 2013 Arizona Fall League

If you love prospects, then it doesn’t get any better than the Arizona Fall League.

With six teams comprised of baseball’s top prospects from all 30 organizations, the AFL provides an opportunity to witness the future of the game on one field.

This year’s crop of talent was especially deep, including 21 players that ranked among our end-of-season top 100 prospects.

However, with the fall season set to conclude on Saturday afternoon with the AFL Championship Game, airing at 3 p.m. ET on MLB Network, it’s time reflect on some of this year’s top prospects.

Specifically, I thought I’d share my thoughts on the most impressive—not the best—prospects I laid eyes on earlier this month. So, here’s a look at the 10 most impressive prospects from this year’s Arizona Fall League.

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Why MLB Needs to Create an International Draft, and What It Would Mean

Back in March, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association discussed creating an annual international amateur draft, possibly as early as 2014, and set a June 1 deadline to reach an agreement on its framework.

While the parties ultimately could not come to terms by the self-imposed deadline, they are expected to continue developing the idea in the meantime.

But after defaulting in the preliminary negotiations, an international draft is unlikely to happen for the rest of the current collective bargaining agreement, which expires following the 2016 season.

If it’s done right, designing and implementing an international draft system that benefits amateur players could both improve the talent pool in already baseball-centric countries and, more importantly, stimulate the growth of the sport worldwide.

However, developing a draft based on the perceived best interests of amateur players isn’t on MLB’s agenda. Regulating teams’ international spending, on the other hand, remains a top priority. And for that reason, there’s also a growing fear that an international draft would diminish the talent pool in some countries.

 

The Concerns

The fact that MLB was so gung ho this spring about laying the groundwork for an international draft is an automatic red flag.

While they have good intentions, the league’s over-involvement this early in the process is concerning. 

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports noted following the announcement that the league and MLBPA failed to reach an agreement by the June 1 deadline, there’s still considerable pressure to implement the draft sooner rather than later:

The international draft has been a pet project of commissioner Bud Selig, who said he plans on retiring in 2015. He has dispatched top lieutenants to fix a system many in baseball see as corrupt, with rampant identity fraud and performance-enhancing-drug use among teenagers vying for tens of millions of dollars in signing-bonus money.

Baseball ultimately envisions an operation that keeps the heart of the trainer-based system while weeding out the crooked parts that also have included kickbacks to scouts.

Already MLB has taken steps to curb a market that exploded with multimillion-dollar bonuses after so long being a well for cheap labor. With the current CBA, the league instituted sliding bonus pools that give the worst teams from the previous season more money to spend during the next signing period that starts every July 2.

Furthermore, team owners are likely to support the initiative because it involves cutting costs in a mostly unregulated market.

HardballTalk.com’s Craig Calcaterra furthered Passan‘s thoughts by arguing that the idea behind an international draft has virtually nothing to do with fostering a competitive balance between all 30 clubs:

International signings cost a fraction of what teams pay for free agents and, in most cases, what teams spend for bonuses in the Rule 4 draft as currently constructed. They even cost less than the baseball operations budgets of most teams. Meaning executives, coaches, scouts and coordinators’ salaries. International free agency, as currently constructed, does nothing to keep so-called poor or small market teams out of the game. To see so, one need only look at the two highest profile international signings: Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes, who went to the Reds and A’s respectively.

Meanwhile, having already sacrificed the rights of amateur players in the United States with the latest CBA, the Players Association is likely to agree to the idea provided they get something in return. After all, less money spent by teams on amateur players means there will be more available for big leaguers.

Additionally, opponents of the idea are quick to cite Puerto Rico as an example of how an international draft can negatively affect a country’s baseball pipeline.

As Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram pointed out:

Puerto Rico was sucked into the First-Year Player Draft in 1990, and the number of Puerto Ricans in the majors has dropped steeply. Many of the game’s greatest players are from Puerto Rico, and the Rangers made a living scouting there in the 1980s and 1990s, but fewer than 30 were on major league rosters to start the season.

One is Geovany Soto, an 11th-round pick in 2001. He said that players in the U.S. territory are scouted, but the baseball infrastructure there is lacking relative to in the States.

As such, players don’t play or practice as often and have considerably poorer facilities, and scouts aren’t as likely to commit to a Puerto Rican prospect the way they would an American — with 2012 No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa a recent exception.

No one doubts that baseball there is on the decline, and some point to the draft as a main culprit.

Wilson goes on to discuss the potential impact of an international draft as it relates to the Texas Rangers’ history of scouting and developing international players.

They have poured resources into their scouting department there and, like all other clubs, have an academy in the Dominican to lure prospects into signing and then develop them until they are ready to play in the United States.

The thought within the organization is that a draft would unfairly nullify their hard work. If teams aren’t putting in the same level of work or financial commitment as the leaders in Latin America, that’s their fault and they shouldn’t get a get-out-of-jail-free card from MLB.

International competitive balance has improved under the current CBA, with each team allotted a $2.9 million bonus pool. Therefore, an interest in decreasing international spending and regulating the market simply boils down to the desire of owners to cut costs.

 

How It Could Work

Creating an international draft is a major operation—one that will take years of planning and require complete cooperation from other countries. So, it’s not a coincidence that MLB is actively pursuing change in the free-agent posting system of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

While there’s no blueprint for structuring an international draft, there are obvious scenarios that need to be avoided—such as those with the potential to hurt a draft pick’s value.

For example, a mixed draft composed of both U.S. and international prospects—“international” being used loosely to represent all potential draft-eligible players—is out of the question. In that scenario, a 16-year-old international prospect faces a potentially costly disadvantage having to compete against 18-year-old high school seniors and 21- to 22-year-old college players. Just think of the developmental resources, or lack thereof, available to the players in each of those draft categories.

The only way an international draft will work is if it’s designed and regulated by people who understand the importance of player development as well as the growth of the game abroad. Meanwhile, the actual draft order presumably would be the same as MLB’s annual amateur draft, using the reverse standings based on team winning percentages from the previous season.

As of now, the fundamental problem—and it’s a big one—with an international draft is that neither MLB nor the MLBPA represents the best interests of international amateur players.

And until the focus of the operation shifts from cutting costs to the global promotion of the sport, it’s difficult to envision the idea of an international draft gaining traction.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Is Billy Hamilton Ready to Star If Reds Let Shin-Soo Choo Walk?

The Cincinnati Reds knew that they may only get one season of free-agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo when they traded for him last December.

The acquisition also enabled the organization to take a more conservative approach in its development of prospect Billy Hamilton. 

Rather than rushing him to the major leagues to open the 2013 season after only a half-season at the Double-A level in 2012, signing Choo provided the Reds with the roster flexibility to keep Hamilton in Triple-A for a majority of the year. 

However, with Choo—ranked as the No. 3 free agent by MLB Trade Rumors—seeking more than the seven-year, $126 million contract that Jayson Werth received from the Nationals before the 2011 season, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter), he may be out of the Reds’ price range.

Hamilton’s lack of production in the minor leagues this past season was disappointing, though the 23-year-old outfielder was sensational as a September call-up.

The only question is whether Hamilton convinced the organization he’s ready for an everyday role next season.

Ready or not, it appears as though the job may finally be his with the Reds’ chances of signing Choo dwindling.

 

Defense: Check

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Reds believe that Hamilton is “ready to handle center field defensively.”  

After moving from shortstop to center field last fall, Hamilton made noticeable improvements this year in regard to his jumps and routes to the ball. As one might expect given his speed, Hamilton has plus range in the outfield and can get to virtually any ball—provided it’s in the air and not over a fence. 

He still needs work on his first step, but the wheels help him compensate even when the route is sketchy. His arm action at shortstop was awkward and rushed at times, but it’s played well in center field, where he can afford to have a longer stroke on the backside.

 

September Speed

Hamilton took baseball by storm after reaching the major leagues as a September call-up, going 4-for-4 in stolen base attempts and scoring three runs as a pinch runner before logging his first career at-bat.

The Reds gave Hamilton three starts over the final month of the season to see what he could do, and the 23-year-old didn’t disappoint by batting .500 (7-for-14) with four runs scored, two doubles and six stolen bases in those games.

Overall, Hamilton was 7-for-19 (.368) with nine runs scored and 13 stolen bases in 13 games.

During his time in The Show with the Reds, Hamilton demonstrated his ability to put constant pressure on opposing defenses thanks to feet that never stop moving on the field and a mindset geared toward taking an extra base whenever possible.

Hamilton put himself on the map by stealing 103 bases in 135 games during his full-season debut at Low-A Daytona in 2011. Last season, he set a new professional record by swiping 155 bases in 132 games between High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Pensacola. He was also thrown out 37 times.

Believe it or not, Hamilton was actually more efficient on the basepaths this season. In 123 games at Triple-A Louisville, he stole 75 bases in 90 attempts (83.3 percent), not to mention the 13 he added after joining the Reds.

When Hamilton reaches base, everyone in the park knows he’s stealing. Yet, he still accomplishes the feat with relative ease.  

Hamilton has the potential to eclipse 100 stolen bases in a given season during his prime. However, that’s only if he hits enough to warrant everyday playing time.

 

The Deal Breaker 

Despite Hamilton’s ability to impact games on the basepaths, there are legitimate questions as to whether he’ll ever develop the hit tool needed to hold an everyday job in the major leagues.

As a switch-hitter, Hamilton has quick wrists from both sides of the plate, which allow him to generate above-average bat speed and be short to the ball. However, his overall inconsistency is worrisome; Hamilton struggles to keep his weight back and will lunge at too many offerings within the strike zone. And though he controls the zone relatively well, he also makes far too much weak contact for someone who projects as a dynamic leadoff hitter. 

Furthermore, Hamilton has a wiry frame at 6’0”, 160 pounds that lacks physical projection. Even if he continues to mature physically in the coming years, he’ll never be regarded as strong. He actually does a decent job creating backspin carry by driving through the baseball, especially from the left side of the plate, where he showcases a more leveraged swing.

However, there’s doubt as to whether he’ll ever develop the necessary strength to make consistent hard contact in the major leagues.

 

Oh, Billy: 2014 Outlook

If the Reds fail to re-sign Choo this winter, they have nothing to lose by deploying Hamilton as the center fielder on Opening Day—even if he’s not 100 percent ready.

Though his numbers weren’t particularly inspiring this past season, the Reds stuck to a strict plan and handled Hamilton’s development admirably by keeping him in the minor leagues until September. But after buying him an extra year in the minors with Choo’s acquisition, it’s now time for the organization to find out what it really has in Hamilton.

With speed that grades as a 90 on the 20-80 scouting scale, the 23-year-old boasts arguably the most dynamic tool among all prospects—and perhaps soon among all major leaguers. Even though he regressed at the dish this season at the Triple-A level, the hope is that his bat will come along as he gains experience against advanced pitching—as was the case in September. 

If he can develop into at least a league-average hitter, Hamilton should approach his high ceiling as one baseball’s premier top-of-the-order and up-the-middle players.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2013 Arizona Fall League Pitching Prospects with Big MLB Futures

The Mesa Solar Sox and Surprise Saguaros will play in the Arizona Fall League Championship game on Saturday, beginning at 3 p.m. ET and airing on MLB Network.

For those of you that weren’t planning on watching the game, you may want to reconsider; the two teams’ rosters are absolutely stacked with top-ranked prospects.

Notables from Mesa’s roster: Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, Taylor Lindsey, Addison Russell, Devon Travis, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, Brian Goodwin.

From Surprise: Jorge Alfaro, Mookie Betts, Garin Cecchini, Jonathan Schoop, Tyler Naquin.

After breaking down the top hitters in this year’s AFL yesterday, it’s now time take a look at the league’s best pitching prospects and speculate about how their respective careers may unfold.

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2013 Arizona Fall League’s Hottest, Coldest Pitching Prospects

If you love prospects, then it doesn’t get any better than the Arizona Fall League.

With six teams comprised of baseball’s top prospects from all 30 organizations, the AFL provides an opportunity to witness the future of the game on one field.

This year’s crop of talent is especially deep, including 21 players that ranked among our end-of-season top 100 prospects.

After looking at the hottest and coldest hitters at every minor league level during the regular season, we’ve decided to continue the series into the fall so as to offer insight into the happenings of the AFL.

However, colleague Adam Wells and I have something special in store for everyone today. Between the two of us, we’ve had eyes on just about every prospect in the AFL. So, rather than focusing on the best and worst statistical performances in this week’s installment, Adam and I instead decided to share some of our scouting notes and videos.

Here’s the latest installment of the hottest and coldest pitchers in this year’s Arizona Fall League.

 

Hottest

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

2013 AFL Stats: 13.1 IP, 1.35 ERA, .122 BAA, 10/8 K/BB (4 GS)

One year ago, just before the Toronto Blue Jays made the trade for all of Miami’s big contracts, there were three young pitchers worth mentioning in the organization.

Today, after Justin Nicolino was sent to the Marlins and Noah Syndergaard went to New York, Aaron Sanchez is the only one of that Big Three remaining.

The Blue Jays weren’t going to part with the young right-hander in a deal, which was a wise move at the time. Now, however, based on two appearances I saw in the AFL, I am concerned about what the future holds for Sanchez.

There’s nothing wrong with his stuff. He still has a monster fastball that sits in the mid-90s, a curveball that flashes plus and a changeup that is still in the developing stages but coming along nicely for a 21-year-old.

Sanchez’s issues come when you break down his delivery, as well as lingering control issues that haven’t gotten better after his breakout season in 2012. He’s always been a very good athlete, capable of repeating a simple, solid delivery with ease.

That’s no longer the case, though, as Sanchez no longer drives his 6’4” frame to the plate. He stays almost completely straight through his wind-up and push towards home, which prevents him from getting plane on the fastball and allows hitters a little extra time to see the ball out of his hands.

He’s also been erratic with eight walks to just 10 strikeouts in 13.1 innings. The stuff is good enough that Sanchez can get away with all of these flaws against weaker competition, but he will get eaten alive by advanced hitting.

This was a pitcher who had the upside of a No. 1 starter, and he still flashes the potential to get there. Sanchez’s flaws are more pronounced now than they have ever been, though, making the likelihood of him ever reaching that ceiling slim. – Adam Wells

 

Dominic Leone, RHP, Seattle Mariners

2013 AFL Stats: 5 SV, 10. IP, 12 H, 3 ER, BB, 11 K (9 G)

Leone may not look like much at 5’11”, 185 pounds, but don’t let his size fool you. Selected in the 16th round of the 2012 draft out of Clemson, Leone hopped on the fast track to the major leagues this year in his full-season debut.

Overall, the soon-to-be 22-year-old amassed 16 saves and posted a 2.25 ERA with 64 strikeouts in 64 innings between Low-A Clinton, High-A High Desert and Double-A Jackson.

The right-hander has been one of the better pitchers so far in the AFL, collecting a handful of saves with 11 strikeouts in 10 innings. Meanwhile, Leone’s average fastball velocity of 95.02 MPH, per MLBfarm.com, is the eighth highest in the league.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Baltimore Orioles

2013 AFL Stats: 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, .205 BAA, 12/5 K/BB (4 GS)

Coming off a breakout full-season debut in 2012, Rodriguez has continued to improve this year, despite being one of the younger full-time starters at both the High-A and Double-A levels.

After a strong showing over the first half of the season in the Carolina League, the Orioles promoted the 20-year-old to Double-A Bowie in early July. The left-hander was initially overmatched at the more advanced level, as he registered a 7.02 ERA and 33-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 34.2 innings (seven starts).

However, Rodriguez ultimately settled in and went on to post a respectable 4.22 ERA and 59-24 strikeout-to-walk ration in 59.2 innings.

The only chance I had to see Rodriguez pitch was on Saturday in the Fall Stars Game. Although he threw only one inning given the showcase nature of the event, the left-hander opened plenty of eyes during his time on the mound.

Normally someone who works in the low-90s with his fastball, Rodriguez sat comfortably in the 92-95 mph range and even scraped 97 according to several radar guns behind the plate. Having not seen the left-hander since last summer, I was particularly impressed with the ease in which the ball left his hand, as well as the progress he’s made in developing the slider to be a swing-and-miss pitch.

 

 

Coldest

Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants

2013 AFL Stats: 9.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 9 BB, 14 K (5 G/3 GS)

Although a strained oblique limited Crick to only 14 starts this past season, the 20-year-old was flat-out nasty when healthy, posting a 1.57 ERA and .201 opponent batting average with 95 strikeouts in 68.2 innings at High-A San Jose.

Boasting a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and frequently scrapes 96-97, along with a trio of secondary offerings that can flash plus but lack consistency, Crick has the makings of a front-of-the-rotation pitcher. That being said, both his control and command will need considerable refinement before reaching the major leagues.

Crick showed signs of rust in the early going of the AFL, struggling to command his fastball and work down in the zone consistently as a starter. However, the right-hander did turn in back-to-back scoreless appearances working out of the bullpen at the end of October.

Although it wasn’t the cleanest of innings on Saturday in the Fall Stars Game—though that was partially a result of Kris Bryant’s error at third base—Crick showcased his monster fastball in the game, sitting at 94-96 mph and hitting 97 on several occasions. The right-hander also showed a sharp, late-breaking slider in the game, though his control of the pitch is less advanced.

 

Ken Giles, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

2013 AFL Stats: 2 SV, 7.1 IP, 7.36 ERA, 11/8 K/BB (7 G)

Signed in the seventh rough of the 2011 draft out Yavapi JC in New Mexico, Giles quickly emerged as one of the more high-upside relievers in the game thanks to a legitimate triple-digit fastball and potentially devastating slider in the upper-80s.

Making his full-season debut last year, the 23-year-old recorded eight saves and posted a 3.51 ERA, .209 opponents’ batting average and 111-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 82 innings between Low-A Lakewood and High-A Clearwater.

This past season, Giles was expected to continue his quick ascent up the organizational ladder. However, the right-hander landed on the disabled list twice with a strained oblique and then struggled mightily following a return to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.

Logging only 25.2 innings over 24 appearances at the level, Giles tallied six saves and registered a 6.31 ERA and 34-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

While he’s continued to pitch poorly so far this fall, the 23-year-old turned heads last Saturday during his outing in the Fall Stars Game. Working in the 96-99 mph range and even scraping 100 mph with his four-seam fastball, Giles easily showcased the best velocity in the game, as well as a filthy but largely inconsistent slider in the upper-80s.

I don’t know how else to say it other than: Giles should not be struggling in the minor leagues given his elite velocity and swing-and-miss breaking ball.

If the right-hander hasn’t figured things out by the time he’s eligible for the Rule 5 Draft next year, expect virtually every organization to show interest in his arm strength.

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