Tag: Prospect Pipeline

Introducing Noah Syndergaard, Possible Centerpiece of Game-Changing Winter Trade

A case can be made that the New York Mets possess the best collection of young pitching in the major leagues, with a projected 2015 starting rotation that includes right-handers Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and National League Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom.

Plus, it shouldn’t be long until they’re joined by a host of other young arms, too, as prospects Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz both are close to being ready for The Show.

However, while the Mets may be loaded on the mound, the team also has glaring holes elsewhere on its roster, especially at shortstop. So far, general manager Sandy Alderson hasn’t been interested in trading any of the aforementioned pitchers for an upgrade at the position, though that hasn’t stopped other teams from inquiring.

But if the Mets were to trade for a shortstop this offseason, then they could potentially draw a huge return by making Syndergaard available.

Here is what you need to know about the Mets’ top prospect.

Syndergaard, 22, had a rough 2014 campaign at Triple-A Las Vegas on paper, posting a 4.60 ERA in 133 innings while opposing hitters raked against him at a .293 clip (10.4 hits per nine innings).

However, the right-hander’s 3.70 FIP highlights that his numbers were inflated by the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Specifically, opposing hitters batted .378 on balls in play against Syndergaard, yet he kept the ball in the park at an impressive rate of 0.74 home runs per nine innings.

On top of that, he once again held his own against older hitters while maintaining strong strikeout (9.81 strikeouts per nine innings) and walk (2.91 walks per nine innings) rates.

Syndergaard’s control and ability to throw strikes always has been one of his strengths, highlighted by his sub-seven percent walk rate over the last two years. The right-hander managed to limit the free passes even in his rougher outings this year, and his command should only improve with experience.

With a 6’6”, 240-pound frame, few pitchers in the minors have Syndergaard’s combination of front-of-the-rotation upside and physical durability. Meanwhile, the 22-year-old’s power arsenal of three potential plus pitches (four pitches overall), highlighted by a high-90s fastball (above) and devastating curveball (below), will always help him miss bats.

And after striking out 10 batters per nine innings over his five-year career in the minors, it wouldn’t be surprising if Syndergaard maintained a favorable strikeout rate in the major leagues.

A look at Syndergaard’s future teammates’ minor versus major league strikeout rates also suggests he’ll continue to pile up strikeouts moving forward.

Syndergaard learned this year that he can’t succeed with pure stuff alone despite consistently working within the zone and will need to execute his full arsenal more efficiently.

Triple-A Las Vegas pitching coach Frank Viola played a major role in Syndergaard’s development, as he instructed the right-hander to shake off his catcher more, learn how to pitch without his best stuff and develop his secondary pitches, especially his changeup, according to Tim Rohan of The New York Times.

It’s worth noting that Syndergaard gave everyone a scare with a minor elbow injury in late May, though it was a non-issue over the rest of the season and didn’t play a role in the Mets’ decision not to call him up for the final month of the season.

“You always want to see the prospects,” said Mets manager Terry Collins, via Marc Carig of Newsday. “I know one thing I don’t want to have happen is have him be called up and have five innings to work with. Start him in a game, have him go five and shut him down for the rest of the year, I’m not sure that’s a fair assessment of what he can do.”

It’s not a secret that the Mets would like to add a shortstop this offseason, as they currently have Wilmer Flores slated to open 2015 at the position. However, that doesn’t mean the club would be willing to blow up its starting rotation and/or farm system to acquire a high-end shortstop.

The Mets briefly discussed Didi Gregorius with Arizona before he was dealt to the Yankees, but the Diamondbacks reportedly wanted Syndergaard in return, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

“We’ve looked at all the shortstop possibilities,” Alderson said, via Rubin. “We knew Arizona was looking for young pitching. There’s some young pitching we weren’t prepared to trade, but I can’t say we had a lot of extensive conversations with Arizona.” 

The Mets aren’t in any hurry to deal major league assets such as Harvey, Wheeler and deGrom anytime soon, especially when the trio are yet to pitch in the same starting rotation. Along those same lines, the club doesn’t need to sell low on Syndergaard’s upside for only a marginal upgrade at shortstop.

Therefore, even if the Mets make Syndergaard available this offseason, they’re still unlikely to trade him unless presented with a perfect deal, one that directly addresses their needs for the 2015 season (and beyond) while offering something more than a marginal upgrade.

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Ranking, Scouting Top MLB Prospects Involved in Winter Meetings Trades

Major League Baseball’s winter meetings may be over, but the shock from what transpired on Thursday may linger.

The final days of the event featured a flurry of deals involving All-Star players, as Matt Kemp, Yoenis Cespedes, Mat Latos, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Dee Gordon and Alfredo Simon were all included in separate trades.

Many teams considering whether to deal high-profile players this past week were ultimately swayed by offers featuring young players and prospects in return, with some clubs netting as many as three or four in some deals.

As a result, there was an unprecedented number of high-end prospects traded this week, and even more if you include the other deals made earlier in the offseason.

Here’s an in-depth look at some of the top prospects, ranked based on their potential long-term impact at the highest level, who’ll be suiting up for new teams in 2015.

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Francisco Liriano Signing Keeps Perfect Marriage Together in Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Pirates are keeping the gang together.

Having already signed free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett earlier in the offseason, the Pirates agreed to bring back left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano on a three-year, $39 million contract on Tuesday, per Robert Murray of MLBDailyRumors.com:

According to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the deal is the largest the Pirates have ever given to a free agent, surpassing the two-year, $17 million pact Russell Martin inked before the 2012 season.

The 31-year-old has been excellent in the Pirates’ starting rotation over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA and 3.26 fielding independent pitching (FIP) in 323.1 innings while making 55 starts.

Liriano’s 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and 52.4 percent ground-ball rate during that time frame rank eighth and ninth, respectively, among all starters with at least 300 innings pitched.

He also allowed just 0.61 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the last two seasons, good for eighth in MLB.

With that said, Liriano’s control regressed considerably in 2014 (4.49 BB/9) and resulted in about one extra walk per nine innings compared to the previous year (3.52 BB/9). However, as has been the case for most of his career, the left-hander’s ability to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground helped minimize any negative impact stemming from his uptick in free passes.

Liriano has been key to the Pirates’ winning ways the past two years, as he anchored the pitching staff and netted the team 4.7 wins (fWAR).

Assuming Liriano passes his physical, the Pirates’ 2015 starting rotation will feature the same three-headed monster of Liriano, Burnett and Gerrit Colealong with the less heralded Charlie Mortonthat helped them crack a 20-year playoff drought back in 2013.

Three years and $39 million seems like a fair price for the Pirates, but it’s difficult to ignore Liriano’s extensive injury history and the reality that he’s probably not going make 30 starts or pile up innings.

For Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, the left-hander’s durability isn’t overly concerning.

“Even if you discount that performance for the lower total of innings pitched, Liriano looks like a plus-two WAR pitcher for 2015, with some upside beyond that. In this market, $39 million for that kind of value looks like a pretty nice steal for the Pirates,” he wrote.

Liriano’s dominance when healthy over the past two years makes the deal well worth the risk for the Pirates, especially given the overall strength of their rotation.

With Liriano locked up for the next three seasons, the Pirateswho entered the winter meetings with at least $15 million to spend toward the 2015 season, per Rob Biertempfel of TribLive.comare expected to add even more pitching depth this offseason.

Biertempfel reports they have expressed interest in free-agent reliever Pat Neshek.

 

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

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Top MLB Prospects Left Exposed to Being Stolen in Upcoming Rule 5 Draft

After days of wheeling and dealing at Major League Baseball’s annual winter meetings, general managers and scouting directors will cap the week with the Rule 5 draft on Thursday, Dec. 11.

Following the World Series, every team faced a late-November deadline to set their respective 40-man rosters so as to identify the prospects left unprotected for the December draft.

In a nutshell, minor league players become eligible for the draft when they reach their fourth of fifth draft since beginning their professional careers, depending on their age before signing. A player can only avoid becoming eligible for the draft by being added to his team’s 40-man roster before the aforementioned deadline.

Only teams with an available 40-man roster spot are eligible to participate in the event. On top of that, a team must pay $50,000 to claim a player in the draft and then keep him on the major league roster (25-man roster) for the entire season.

Therefore, the goal for teams with the Rule 5 draft is to find that one potential diamond in the rough.

In the context of the draft, that usually means finding a guy with one big league-worthy tool, whether it be a power arm with (at least) a plus fastball, a plus defender at an up-the-middle position, players with near-elite speed and a strong track record stealing bases, power-hitting corner players or, of course, left-handed specialists.

Last year’s draft resulted in three players spending the season in the major leagues: catcher Adrian Nieto (White Sox), left-hander Wei-Chung Wang (Brewers) and right-hander Tommy Kahnle (Rockies).

Here’s a look at some of the top candidates to be selected in this week’s Rule 5 draft, as well as ones to follow closely in the coming season.

 

Names to Know

Cody Martin, RHP, Atlanta Braves

2014 Stats (AAA): 27 G/26 GS, 156 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, .254 BAA (17 HR), 3.2 BB/9, 8.2 K/9

Cody Martin is one of the few notable pitching prospects available in this year’s Rule 5 draft, as he likely would have reached the major leagues in 2014 if not for the Braves’ surplus of starting pitching.

A seventh-round pick in 2011, Martin owns a 3.07 ERA over 433.1 minor league innings, and it would likely sit below 3.00 if not for a career-worst 3.52 ERA at Triple-A Gwinnett last season. Other than that, the 25-year-old right-hander continued to miss bats at a high rate (8.2 K/9) in the International League and even lowered his walk rate while logging a career-high 156 innings.

Though his track record is undeniably impressive, Martin has never profiled as anything better than a No. 4 or 5 starter due to his lack of a plus pitch; he has a deep arsenal of four pitches and knows how to change speeds, but none of them are going to be standout offerings at the highest level. On top of that, Martin’s tendencies as a fly-ball pitcher caught up to him last season in Triple-A, as he allowed a career-worst 17 home runs (1.0 home runs per nine innings) as well as a .726 opponents’ OPS.

However, Martin should still appeal to teams looking for a cheap back-end starter headed into spring training. Yes, there are concerns about whether his stuff will translate in The Show, but the right-hander has done his part by checking all of the boxes in the high minors.  

 

Delino DeShields, OF, Houston Astros

2014 Stats (AA): 114 G, 507 PA, .236/.346/.360, 27 XBH (11 HR), 54 SB (14 CS), 12.0 BB%, 22.1 K%

A first-round draft pick back in 2010, DeShields is arguably the most intriguing Rule 5-eligible player this year thanks to his combination of power, speed and his ability to play two up-the-middle positions.

The 22-year-old put up huge numbers in 2012 between both Class-A levels (mostly Low-A), batting .287/.389/.428 with 44 extra-base hits (12 home runs) and 101 stolen bases in 135 games, and he followed it up with a career-best .873 OPS at High-A Lancaster in 2013.

This past season saw DeShields bat .236/.346/.360 with 27 extra-base hits through 114 games in his first taste of the Double-A level, though a broken cheekbone he suffered in late April as a result of an errant pitch might have contributed to his underwhelming production. Still, the second baseman-turned-center fielder’s speed translated favorably at the higher level, as he ranked second in the Texas League with 54 stolen bases.

Speed alone could get DeShields popped in the Rule 5 draft later this week, and he might be particularly attractive to teams that believe the once highly regarded prospect still has some upside—which he does.

 

Taylor Featherston, SS, Colorado Rockies

2014 Stats (AA): 127 G, 550 PA, .260/.322/.439, 53 XBH (16 HR), 14 SB, 6.9% BB%, 20.7% K%

A fifth-round draft pick out of Texas Christian in 2011, Featherston has spent the last four seasons moving at a level-per-year pace through the Rockies system, and he’s quietly posted some impressive numbers along the way.

Coming off of a career-best offensive campaign in 2013 playing in the hitter-friendly High-A California League, Featherston, 25, proved his power was for real this year at Double-A Tulsa by setting career highs in doubles (33) and home runs (14) while once again achieving double digits in stolen bases (14). Plus, Featherston lowered his strikeout rate from the previous year by nearly nine percent, and he did so without sacrificing any power.

Featherston would likely be used as a utility infielder if selected in the Rule 5 draft, as he’s logged significant time at shortstop (113 games), second (242 games) and third base (18 games) over four minor league seasons. In general, Featherston is a sound defender with a solid glove, average range and above-average arm strength, and his tools tend to play up thanks to his strong instincts.

 

Reymin Guduan, LHP, Houston Astros

2014 Stats (Rk): 13 G/9 GS, 44.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .286 BAA, 5.5 BB/9, 11.8 K/9

Reymin Guduan turns 23 next March and lacks significant experience above the rookie level, but he’s a 6’4” left-hander with a legitimate upper-90s fastball and a track record of missing bats.

Guduan spent 2014 in the Appalachian League where he posted a 4.47 ERA in 44.1 innings, though his FIP of 3.50 highlights how he suffered from bad luck (like opposing hitters’ .402 batting average on balls in play). Meanwhile, the left-hander continued to miss bats at a high rate as he struck out 11.8 batters per nine innings (K/9), which actually lowered his career rate to an 11.0 K/9.

Houston promoted Guduan from the Gulf Coast League to Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2013 for one appearance out of bullpen. He walked three batters and surrendered a run, but Guduan allowed only one hit over 2.1 innings and struck out four.

The Astros remain intent on developing Guduan as a starting pitcher, but his effectiveness against left-handed batters, albeit in the lowest levels of the minor leagues, could be worth the gamble for some teams.

Guduan’s fastball-slider combination screams late-inning potential, but his control is still all over the place. Therefore, any team that selects him will likely limit him to a defined bullpen role similar to how the Brewers handled 2013 Rule 5 selection Wei-Chung Wang, who made an unprecedented jump from the Gulf Coast League to the major leagues.

 

 

More Intriguing Rule 5 Prospects

J.R. Graham, RHP, Atlanta Braves

2014 Stats (AA): 27 G/19 GS, 71.1 IP, 5.55 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, .289 BAA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9

Graham, 24, simply hasn’t been the same after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in mid-May of 2013, as it cost him velocity and sinking action on his fastball. However, the right-hander, who was officially moved to the bullpen late in the 2014 season at Double-A Mississippi, still has the potential to carve out a role in the Braves bullpen if he’s able to return to his 2012 form.

 

Breyvic Valera, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

2014 Stats (A+/AA): 132 G, 570 PA, .313/.361/.367, 163 H, 22 XBH, 17 SB (15 CS), 7.0 BB%, 6.1 K%

Valera solidified his prospect stock with a quietly impressive 2014 season between the High- and Double-A levels, as the athletic switch-hitter combined to bat .313/.361/367 with 17 stolen bases and more walks (40) than strikeouts (35).

Since he’s still realistically at least a year away from holding a role in the major leagues, the Cardinals opted not to add Valera to the 40-man roster last month, making him eligible for the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

 

Matt Skole, 1B, Washington Nationals

2014 Stats (AA): 132 G, 544 PA, .241/.352/.399, 44 XBH (14 HR), 68 RBI, 14.3 BB%, 23.3 K%

The Nats‘ fifth-round selection from the 2011 draft, Skole slashed .291/.426/.559 with 27 homers and 104 RBI in 119 games between Class-A Hagerstown and High-A Potomac in 2012, but he missed nearly all of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fully healthy for 2014, Skole, 25, spent the entire season at Double-A Harrisburg where he batted .241/.352/.399 with 14 home runs and 29 doubles in 132 games.

Prior to his injury, Skole proved to be an intriguing Three True Outcome prospect thanks to his left-handed power and patient approach at the plate. So, it’s not crazy to think a team that believes he might return to his 2012 form could take a flier on him in the Rule 5 draft.

 

Steve Baron, C, Seattle Mariners

2014 Stats (A+/AA): 60 G, 235 PA, .261/.319/.360, 17 XBH, 29 RBI, 7.2 BB%, 16.6 K%

Baron, a first-round draft pick out of high school in 2009, stands out for his superb defense behind the plate, as his excellent catch-and-throw skills and plus-plus arm strength have helped him throw out 46 percent of attempted base stealers over six seasons in the minor leagues. The 24-year-old will never offer much offensively—he’s a career .221/.268/.335 hitter in 1,589 plate appearances—though he did take a step forward in 2014 with a .261/.319/.360 batting line in 235 plate appearances and reached Double-A for the first time in his career.

 

Rafael De Paula, RHP, San Diego Padres

2014 Stats (A+): 28 G/25 GS, 131.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 1.443 WHIP, .265 BAA (12 HR), 3.8 BB/9, 9.9 K/9

Acquired at the trade deadline from the Yankees in the Chase Headley deal, De Paula, 23, posted a 4.92 ERA and 145/55 K/BB ratio over 131.2 innings this season between High-A Tampa and High-A Lake Elsinore. The 6’2” right-hander has a big-time fastball that registers in the mid- to upper-90s, but he’s struggled with his control at times and seems destined for a long-term bullpen role.

 

Former First-Rounders

Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels

The 2010 first-round pick has combined for a .222/.286/.312 batting line in over 1,000 plate appearances at Double-A Arkansas over the last two seasons, and he officially stopped switch hitting along the way. Sadly, the 22-year-old increasingly looks like a lost cause on both sides of the ball, but the Angels will give him one more season to bounce back before moving him to the mound.

 

Drew Vettleson, OF, Washington Nationals

The Rays drafted Vettleson with the No. 42 overall pick in 2010, envisioning him as a power/speed right fielder at maturity. However, the 23-year-old never developed as expected and amassed only 26 home runs and 45 steals in 314 games over three seasons in the Rays system, which prompted the club to trade him to Washington before the 2014 season. Vettleson held his own with a .715 OPS and 27 extra-base hits over 83 games at Double-A Harrisburg, though injuries limited him to only 83 games.

 

Jed Bradley, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers

The No. 15 overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bradley began last season back at High-A Brevard County after back-to-back dismal performances at the level in 2012 and 2013. The 24-year-old left-hander finally enjoyed some success in his third tour of the Florida State League, posting a 2.98 ERA in 60.1 innings, and ended up spending the final three months of the season at Double-A Huntsville. However, Bradley struggled in the Southern League with a 4.55 ERA in 87 innings, while opposing hitters raked against him at a .307/.377/.472 clip.

Bradley’s greatest strength is his ability to neutralize left-handed batters, as they collectively batted .196/.266/.238 against him last season and struck out 31.7 percent of the time in 158 plate appearances. If he’s popped in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, it’ll likely be for his potential in a specialized bullpen role.

 

Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago White Sox

Now 26, Mitchell was the South Siders’ first-round draft pick back in 2009 out of LSU, and he seemed destined to make a quick run through the minor leagues before an ankle injury during the spring of 2010 derailed his career. He enjoyed arguably his best minor league campaign in 2014, as he batted .256/.362/.444 with 19 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 515 plate appearances between Double- and Triple-A. However, Mitchell also struck out 151 times (29.3 percent) on the year, including at a 33 percent whiff rate in Triple-A, which led to the White Sox removing him from the 40-man roster last month. 

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Top MLB Prospects on the Pre-Winter Meetings Trade Block

Major League Baseball’s annual winter meetings are nearly upon us, with the events to be held on Dec. 8-11 in San Diego, California.

With front-office personnel and executives present from all 30 teams, the winter meetings typically produce both high-profile free-agent signings and blockbuster trades. And with every team evaluating their rosters for the 2015 season, prospects are often the deciding factor when it comes to an offseason deal.

In recent years, we’ve seen more and more teams be willing to trade their top prospects, like when the Royals dealt Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to the Rays prior to the 2013 season, which was also the same offseason that the Blue Jays sent Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud to the Mets.

And even though the deals that transpired last offseason didn’t involve as many big-name prospects, we still saw numerous highly regarded young talents, such as Matt Davidson, Michael Choice, Jesse Hahn and Robbie Ray, get moved in exchange for veteran players.

We’ve already seen notable prospects such as Tyrell Jenkins, Devon Travis and Robbie Ray (again) get included in trades this offseason, but so far, none of the deals have involved an elite prospect.

Similarly, there haven’t been many substantiated trade rumors so far involving prospects. However, that’s not to say the rumors aren’t out there.

Here’s a look at five top prospects who could be dealt during next week’s winter meetings.

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Is Didi Gregorius Capable of Being Yankees’ Long-Term Shortstop Fix?

At some point, the New York Yankees were going to have to sign or trade for a shortstop to replace Derek Jeter.

On Friday, the Bronx Bombers landed a potential long-term replacement for The Captain, acquiring Didi Gregorius from the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of a three-team trade with the Detroit Tigers, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Though the Yankees were forced to part with right-hander Shane Greene, the hope is that the 24-year-old Gregorius, who will remain under team control through 2019, will be able to hold down the position for the next five years.

But with such big shoes to fill, are the Yankees asking too much of Gregorius?

When the Diamondbacks traded for Gregorius prior to the 2013 season, Kevin Towers, the team’s general manager at the time, offered a bold comparison for his new shortstop, via Bob McManaman of AZCentral.com:

When I saw him he reminded me of a young Derek Jeter. I was fortunate enough to see Jeter when he was in high school in Michigan and he’s got that type of range. He’s got speed. He’s more of a line drive-type hitter, but I think he’s got the type of approach at the plate where I think there’s going to be power there as well.

While Towers certainly got ahead of himself—after all, neither he nor Gregorius remain with the organization—his general belief that the Dutch native would one day emerge as an impact shortstop was a reasonable expectation.

Gregorius, who turns 25 in February, has always drawn rave reviews for his defense at shortstop, which is more or less the reason he’s now been included in two separate three-team trades in the last three years.

But while he passes the eye test with ease, showing impressive range in all directions as well as natural fluidity at the position, the defensive metrics don’t suggest he’s that strong of a defender at shortstop.

Specifically, FanGraphs’ overall defensive rating (3.9 Def) for Gregorius places him 24th among all shortstops with 1,000 innings at the position over the last two seasons, ahead of guys like Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Adeiny Hechavarria and, as you probably guessed, Derek Jeter.

He’s also tied with Ian Desmond for 16th among shortstops in defensive runs saved (minus-1 DRS) during that time frame, and he ranks 19th in Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-3.7 UZR).

The biggest knock on Gregorius’ defense is that his footwork and body control have a tendency to be inconsistent, which, as the metrics confirm, might limit his playmaking ability at shortstop. That said, his athletic 6’2” frame allows him to cover ground well, and his arm strength is an easy plus.

Offensively, Gregorius has shown flashes of promise over parts of three seasons in the major leagues, but he has yet to develop the overall consistency to hold down an everyday role.

Gregorius’ first full season in the major leagues in 2013 was his best offensive campaign to date. Playing in 103 games for the Diamondbacks, he batted .252/.332/.373 with seven home runs, 16 doubles and promising strikeout and walk rates of 16.1 and 9.2 percent, respectively, over 404 plate appearances. However, his overall production was below league average (92 wRC+), and his career-high 1.4 fWAR was heavily influenced by his strong defense, via FanGraphs.

This past season, the emergence of rookie Chris Owings limited Gregorius’ playing time, though Owings second-half shoulder injury did re-open the door for him. Unfortunately, Gregorius struggled to make the most of the opportunity, batting just .226/.290/.363 with six home runs to produce a 76 wRC+ over 299 plate appearances.

Specifically, Gregorius’ offensive struggles stemmed from a decreased aggressiveness outside the strike zone (rather than inside), and he also was worse at making contact against quality secondary pitches. And for a guy with minimal power, Gregorius still puts way too many balls in the air to seemingly hit for a high average.

On top of that, Gregorius has yet to prove he can truly handle left-handed pitching since reaching the major leagues, evidenced by his .184 batting average, zero home runs and 25 percent strikeout rate in 180 career plate appearances against southpaws.

That said, he has shown glimpses of power in the past over the last two years, and it’s possible there’s some potential there given his fly-ball rate. To jump the yard more often, however, he’ll need to employ a more pull-oriented approach so as to best utilize his raw power, rather than trying to do too much with pitches on the outer half.

Though he’s an impressive athlete with average in-game speed, Gregorius has proved that he’s not much of a base stealer, with only three stolen bases in five attempts over 191 games in the major leagues. Therefore, it’s a good thing that he’s shown he can consistently post an extra-base hit rate above 50 percent (he posted a 51 percent clip in 2013 and followed it with 58 percent last season).

Given the holes in Gregorius’ swing and approach, it’s hard to say how Towers once saw a young Jeter in him.

However, the Yankees’ decision to gamble on his age and upside is nonetheless a healthy risk, as he’s a guy with five years of team control who can offer modest power from the left side of the plate as well as solid baserunning and defense.

From Joel Sherman of the New York Post:

A person familiar with the way the Yankees rate players say they add points to a player’s offensive ability based on how much he helps on defense, and that is why they had such interest in Gregorius. Plus, the Yankees feel it is hard to find offense in this market, particularly at shortstop. A team can improve by scoring more or giving up less. The Yankees believe Gregorius will help them give up less while still having the chance to grow into a competent hitter.

Gregorius has accrued 1.159 years of service time and will qualify for arbitration next offseason as a Super Two, but the Yankees now have five years to see if he can blossom into something more than a defense-first shortstop.

With Gregorius now ideally locked in at shortstop for years to come, the Yankees will presumably shift their focus to the hot corner. As it stands, that spot is a potential nightmare scenario in and of itself with the return of Alex Rodriguez on the horizon.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Progress Reports on All 30 MLB Teams’ Top Prospects in Winter Ball

Although they usually don’t feature the same combination of big-ticket prospects and all-around depth as the Arizona Fall League, the various international winter leagues at least offer those of us going through offseason prospect withdrawal a temporary fix.

Compared to previous years, there are fewer top-ranked prospects participating in winter leagues this year. But as the countdown to spring training begins, it’s possible that more players will join the leagues as they look to get a head start on the 2014 season and hopefully improve their chances of making an Opening Day roster.

However, before next week’s winter meetings take center stage, I wanted to give an update on the performance of each team’s top prospect who has been playing in an offseason league.

For the sake of presentation, here is how the four main winter leagues will be identified in this article:

  • Dominican Winter League (DWL)
  • Mexican Winter League (MWL)
  • Puerto Rican Winter League (PWL)
  • Venezuelan Winter League (VWL)

Here are progress reports on all 30 MLB teams’ top prospect in winter ball.

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Big-Name MLB Prospects Entering Make-or-Break Years with Future at Risk

With the overwhelming failure rate of prospects, teams can only be so patient or forgiving with their young players. However, they tend to be more lenient when that player is a former top draft pick or international signee given the amount of money originally invested as well as the pride at stake.

Heading into the 2015, there are several former top prospects on the verge of falling out of the long-term picture with their respective organizations. And for many of them, the upcoming season may be their final chance to turn the developmental corner and avoid becoming merely a “what could have been” player.

Here’s a look at three once highly-regarded prospects facing a make-or-break season in 2015.

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Young MLB Stars Deserving of Next Wave of Long-Term Extensions

Giancarlo Stanton and the Miami Marlins made sports history earlier this month when the two sides agreed to an unprecedented 13-year, $325 million contract extension through 2027.

While Miami’s decision to offer Stanton, the runner-up in the voting for the 2014 National League Most Valuable Player Award, a contract of that magnitude may seem obscene, it also represented the organization’s only opportunity to lock him up long term. After all, it’s not as though 80-grade power grows on trees these days.

In general, teams have been more willing to give multiyear extensions to young players in the last two seasons, and especially to guys who made an immediate impact after reaching the major leagues and are likely to become increasingly costly once eligible for arbitration.

That was the driving force behind the Angels’ decision to offer Mike Trout a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension last spring, as they essentially bought out his arbitration years while also securing subsequent years at a reasonable price.

However, Trout wasn’t the only promising young player to sign an extension last spring: The Pirates and Cardinals gave extensions to outfielder Starling Marte (six years, $31 million) and third baseman Matt Carpenter (six years, $52 million), respectively, while the Braves locked up the game’s best defensive shortstop in Andrelton Simmons (seven years, $58 million) before the 2014 season.

So which young MLB stars—players who are no more than 25 years of age and have less than two years of service time in the major leagues—are likely to receive long-term extensions this offseason?

Here’s a look at two intriguing candidates.

 

Christian Yelich, LF, Miami Marlins

Age: 22

Service Time: 1.069

First Time Arbitration-Eligible: 2017

The Marlins challenged Yelich with a promotion from Double-A to the major leagues in mid-2013, and the 22-year-old left fielder has done nothing but hit since his debut.

While primarily serving as the Marlins leadoff hitter, Yelich has put together an impressive .285/.365/.400 battling line in 933 plate appearances over the last two seasons, while also accruing 42 doubles, seven triples, 13 home runs and 31 stolen bases during that time frame.

More importantly, Yelich quickly has emerged as one of baseball’s better left fielders during his short time in the major leagues, ranking seventh in fWAR (5.7) and 12th in wRC+ (116) among players at the position with at least 700 plate appearances.

The Marlins would be wise to buy out Yelich’s arbitration years (beginning in 2017) and his first year or two of free agency to ensure he’s setting the table for Stanton for at least the next six seasons.

With a little more than a year of service time to his name (1.069 years), Yelich, who has the makings of a future batting champion and All-Star, is probably looking at an extension in the ballpark of five or six years and close to $20 million, though that figure stands to increase if the Marlins believe he’ll develop consistent 15-20 home run power during those years.

 

George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

Age: 25

Service Time: 0.166

First Time Arbitration-Eligible: 2017

George Springer made his highly anticipated debut with the Astros in 2014, but a nagging quad injury limited the toolsy outfielder to only 78 games. However, that was more than enough time for Springer to put himself on the map as one of baseball’s more talented and intriguing young players.

After struggling during his first few weeks in The Show, Springer eventually settled in at the plate to bat .231/.336/.468 with 20 home runs in 345 plate appearances. The 25-year-old did most of his damage in May—his first full month in the major leagues—batting .297 with 10 home runs in 117 plate appearances, and then added six more long balls in June.

In the wake of Giancarlo Stanton’s extension, B/R MLB Lead Writer Zachary D. Rymer identified other players who might be worth a $300 million contract. One of those players is Springer, who, as Rymer pointed out, put up nearly the same numbers in 2014 (.231 AVG, .804 OPS, 20 HR and 1.4 fWAR) as Stanton did as a rookie back in 2010 (.259 AVG, .833 OPS, 22 HR and 2.3 fWAR).

However, Rymer goes on to note a few differences between the two sluggers:

One complication, however, is that Springer is actually slightly older than Stanton by just under a month (they’re both 25). So while his rookie season was comparable to Stanton’s, it might represent Springer’s ceiling rather than his floor.

Though Springer doesn’t deserve anything close to Stanton money, his loud tools (especially his power and speed) and lofty ceiling already have him pegged as a future extension candidate. Unfortunately, Springer already declined an extension offer from the Astros before reaching the major leagues—a contract similar to the one signed by first baseman Jon Singleton—suggesting that he believes he’ll ultimately command a larger contract in several years.

Springer will be arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2017, meaning he won’t become a free agent until after the 2020 season. But if the Astros were to approach Springer about a monster extension, something could get done after his first year of arbitration in 2017.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Analyzing Yasmany Tomas’ Potential Impact on Each Top MLB Suitor

The sweepstakes for Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas is down to four teams, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, with the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants all in the mix.

However, the last week has seen the Braves and Padres rise to the top and become front-runners to sign Tomas, and both clubs are now sending their top officials to meet with the 24-year-old in the Dominican Republic this weekend.

Unfortunately, it might be a few more weeks until either team can claim an offseason victory, as Tomas is “mulling a number of contract offers” and also considering attending next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, per Austin Laymance of MLB.com.

Until then, here’s a look at how signing Tomas might impact his top suitors.

 

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are viewed as one of the top suitors for Tomas, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required). On Thursday, Giants assistant general manager Bobby Evans confirmed to KNBR radio (via a tweet from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) that the team is “very interested” in Tomas.

However, the Giants’ ability to sign Tomas is tied to free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s status. He’s currently listening to contract offers for upward of $100 million from multiple teams, including the Giants.

For what it’s worth, Evans sincerely believes the Giants are still in the mix to re-sign the three-time World Series champion. More on that from Schulman:

Evans spoke to Sandoval’s agent this morning. Contrary to the notion that Sandoval has no interest in returning to San Francisco, put forth in a report by KPIX on Wednesday, Evans said, ‘We’ve got every indication that we’re right in the middle of it.’

Evans said he understands that money and years will play the dominant role in Sandoval’s ultimate decision, but he still feels the Panda’s ties to San Francisco will play a role. ‘I think the interest is sincere,’ Evans said. ‘I think Pablo loves this fanbase as much as any player loves a fanbase, and that could go a long way.

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Evans remained tight-lipped during the aforementioned radio interview when asked whether the Giants could afford to sign both Tomas and Sandoval.

The Giants lack viable internal options at third base and left field, and should they fail to re-sign Sandoval as well as free-agent Michael Morse—who hit 16 home runs last season on a one-year deal with the Giants—then it’d make sense to go all-in and meet Tomas’ lofty asking price.

“Power is the calling card for Tomas, a strong man with big lift in his swing,” writes Badler. “It’s 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, with a chance to hit 25-plus home runs over a full season, possibly more depending on contact frequency in game situations.”

Some evaluators, such as Badler, believe Tomas might be better off with a few months at the Triple-A level. However it’s safe to assume that if the Giants ultimately sign Tomas, they’ll expect him to make the jump directly to the major leagues and supplant Morse and Sandoval’s power in the heart of the lineup.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been linked to Tomas for what feels like an eternity, and up until this week they were widely considered the front-runners to sign him.

Back on Nov. 5, Heyman wrote:

The Phillies are said by people in the know to be ‘all over’ Tomas, the outfielder/third baseman who has been holding private workouts in the Dominican Republic in recent days after a widely attended September showcase that is said to have drawn all 30 MLB teams.

However, recent reports suggest Philadelphia’s interest level has waned in the last few weeks, and the team might be ready to completely drop out of the sweepstakes for Tomas.

Per Paul Hagen of MLB.com:

The Phillies, once considered favorites to land free-agent outfielder Yasmany Tomas, have cooled on the idea of signing the 24-year-old Cuban defector, according to Major League sources.

While the Phils, who had a private workout with Tomas, still like his bat, there are concerns about his defense. They now view him as more of a designated hitter-type player, the sources added.

Of course, that thinking could change if the price for Tomas, once estimated to be as high as $100 million, begins to come down. The Phillies are trying to trade right fielder Marlon Byrd with an eye toward moving Domonic Brown from left to right. That would mean they would need to fill the vacancy in left internally (Grady Sizemore, Darin Ruf, Aaron Altherr) or from outside the organization.

I still view Tomas as a good fit for the Phillies given his age, raw power and overall potential, and in theory he’d give the team something to build around moving forward should they trade Hamels and launch a long-overdue rebuilding process. Plus, signing Tomas to play either right or left field would allow the Phillies to explore trades for Marlon Byrd and/or Domonic Brown.

Therefore, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Hagen’s latest report is nothing more than the Phillies attempting to soften a suddenly aggressive market for Tomas. And for what it’s worth, there was still one MLB executive that, as of Thursday, saw the Phillies as the the easy favorites to land Tomas this offseason, per a tweet from ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

 

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the latest team to enter the sweepstakes for Tomas, according MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, and they’re quickly emerging as one of the favorites.

Meanwhile, Heyman also hears the Braves are interested in Tomas, noting the team is set to see him in a private workout:

The Braves could qualify as a surprise team, but they recently made room in the outfield by trading Jason Heyward. They also have been in trade talks involving outfielders Justin Upton and Evan Gattis, but new Braves president of baseball operations John Hart has long loved power hitters, as folks may recall from his Cleveland and Texas days.

Whether the Braves actually try to sign Tomas is likely to hinge on their plans for Upton; it doesn’t strike me as a coincidence that news of Atlanta’s sudden interest in Tomas emerged at the same time as reports suggesting Upton is available.

Mark Bowman of MLB.com believes the Braves will trade Upton before pulling the trigger on Tomas:

To be in position to sign either Lester or Tomas, the Braves would likely first have to trade Justin Upton, who is owed $14.5 million before becoming eligible for free agency next year. Upton’s market is improved by the fact that he is being made available at a time when there are not many attractive outfielders on the free-agent market.

If the Braves expect to sign Tomas, it makes sense for them to first deal Upton in exchange for prospects, presumably pitchers. With Upton out, the team would then be free to deploy Tomas in left field or possibly even right should Evan Gattis be moved to the outfield.

 

San Diego Padres

A.J. Preller appears poised to make a splash in his first offseason as general manager of the Padres, as he’s currently on the brink of landing two of the top hitters in this year’s free-agent class.

The Padres are believed to be one of three teams in the mix to sign third baseman Pablo Sandoval, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted Thursday that San Diego was expected to offer him a five-year deal in the $90 to $95 million range.

Meanwhile, Preller has continued to aggressively pursue Tomas, targeting the Cuban outfielder for his universal power and middle-of-the-order potential.

From Corey Brock of MLB.com:

The Padres have scouted 24-year-old outfielder Tomas on several occasions and have also looked at him at third base, Preller said recently. A report in recent weeks discounted the Padres’ chances, but a source said Wednesday the Padres are still considering Tomas. …

… Tomas is believed to be seeking at least a five- to seven-year deal with an annual salary near $15 million, but the Tomas camp has not ruled out the possibility of signing a short-term, high-value deal that would allow him to return to the free-agent market sooner.

FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel tweeted Thursday that he’d heard the Padres were still in the mix for Tomas and were willing to offer him up to $70 million, which could be a potential steal depending on the length of the contract.

Regardless, the fact that the Padres are trying to secure not one but two impact hitters this offseason is a huge step in the right direction.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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