Kuzul

While the level of excitement in Toronto about baseball has not been this high since the World Series runs of 1992 and 1993, the level of expectation is considerably high. For close to two decades, franchises like the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers continuously had very high payrolls with no championship to show for it.

The acquisitions of Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, Emilio Bonifacio, Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle are nothing short of impressive. The Jays’ trade with the Florida Marlins quickly evokes memories of the 1990 trade the Blue Jays pulled with the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter.  While free agents and traded players are part of any team, an excessive number of acquisitions cannot be expected to go out on the field and produce results.

It may be a long season (there is an extra wild card team), but there is an all or nothing sentiment about this team which is unfair. The fact that the Blue Jays gave up quite a lot in the R.A. Dickey trade could haunt the franchise. Back in 1992, the Blue Jays gave up a promising infield prospect in Jeff Kent to the New York Mets for a fiery right-hander known as David Cone.

While Cone contributed to the Jays’ World Series title, he departed for the Kansas City Royals in the 1993 season. Kent would go on to a superlative career, and would have been a remarkable piece of the Blue Jays’ future. In 1993, the Jays made the same mistake when they gave up Steve Karsay to the Oakland Athletics for future Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson.

As Dickey is 38, the Jays took a huge gamble. Toronto’s top prospect, Travis d’Arnaud was the centerpiece in the deal for the Mets. He has the potential to be an anchor on any team’s lineup for the next decade. The last time that the Blue Jays took a gamble on a knuckleballer was Cleveland Indians hurler Tom Candiotti in 1991. In giving up a package of prospects (which included Mark Whiten), the Blue Jays were disappointed when Candiotti folded in the 1991 American League Championship Series.

Although the Blue Jays teams of 1992 and 1993 spent considerably on free agents (Dave Winfield, Jack Morris, Paul Molitor, Dave Stewart), the reason the team was able to gel was due to the leadership of players like Roberto Alomar, Joe Carter and field manager Cito Gaston.

The current Blue Jays do not have a player like Alomar or Carter that captures the imagination of the fans. In addition, the Blue Jays hired a manager whose first tenure with the club was nothing short of disastrous—John Gibbons. Having spent the 2012 baseball season with the San Antonio Missions (a Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres), his return to the Blue Jays was highly unexpected.

His first tenure with the Blue Jays was defined by controversies with several players. There was an incident with Dave Bush in May 2005, after the pitcher was removed from a game. The following day, Bush was sent to the minors. A confrontation with disgruntled player Shea Hillenbrand occurred in July 2006 when he was upset over lack of playing time.

A few weeks later, Gibbons was involved in a physical altercation with pitcher Ted Lilly after an argument over pulling the hurler from the game. In 2008, a dispute with Frank Thomas over playing time led to the former AL MVP being released by the Blue Jays.

If the Blue Jays enter a slump early into 2013, who is to say that there will not be another possible incident or confrontation? With the level of managerial talent available (including former All-Star players Ryne Sandberg and Tim Wallach), Gibbons is a painful reminder of the failed J.P. Ricciardi regime in Toronto.

Considering that Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos made a trade with the Miami Marlins that will either define or tarnish his reputation, he would be wise to learn from the Marlins’ 2012 season. With a new ballpark, new uniforms and a small fortune spent on free agents, the Marlins were expected to challenge for the National League East title. Instead, the underdog Washington Nationals shocked the baseball world by claiming the division crown.

The Blue Jays were on the right track with their prospects in 2012 and did not need to undertake such risk. Building from within like the Nationals and the Tampa Bay Rays is the right way to do it. When one plays in the same division as the New York Yankees, it is all too tempting to take risk and go for broke.

As Canada’s only Major League franchise, the Blue Jays are in a unique position, and contention is an important part of maintaining an entire nation of fans. Even if the Jays grab the World Series in 2013, could they become like the 1997 Florida Marlins? Those Marlins spent an excessive amount of money and tore the team apart (and alienated its fan base) in the following offseason.

In increasing over $50 million worth of contracts, this is a game of high stakes poker. A few years ago, the franchise gambled on A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan, and it was a disaster. With the Boston Red Sox in decline and the Baltimore Orioles no longer in an underdog position, the upcoming season does represent the best chance that the Blue Jays have to make some noise.

Although it is exciting for Blue Jays fans to see the franchise going for it, the brain trust of Anthopoulos and popular president Paul Beeston needs to be prepared for what happens should the postseason goals not be reached. 

Since the last baseball strike, the Blue Jays, Royals and Pirates are the only franchises to have not qualified for the postseason. Had the Blue Jays played in any other division, they could have made the playoffs more than once.

With the frustration of the Yankees’ dominance lingering for almost two decades, it is all too hard for the Blue Jays not to feel an obligation to their fans to give it their best try. For the current generation of Blue Jays fans, this is truly the most exciting offseason the Jays have had in a long time. Said fans need to borrow a page from Orioles fans and Dodgers faithful and understand that there are no guarantees.

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The 2012-13 MLB offseason has had its share of surprises.

One of the biggest surprises this offseason was the Los Angeles Angels signing of Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125 million contract.

Surprising because, it seemed the Angels were relegated to bystander status after spending a combined $317 million on the Albert Pujois and C.J. Wilson contracts during the 2011 offseason.

Surprising because, the Texas Rangers allowed Hamilton to leave the club and join an AL West rival.

That wasn’t the only surprising move this offseason.

Who could have expected that teams such as the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Kansas City Royals would become key players in the postseason transaction market?

What about the New York Yankees? Where have they been this offseason?

Who would you add to or take off this list?

Here are the 10 biggest surprises of the MLB offseason.

Let the debate begin!

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Not too long ago, the New York Mets went after the top-tier free agents as aggressively as the Yankees and Red Sox. Recently, with the departures of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and R.A. Dickey, they have become the team known for shipping their starts out of town.

The Dickey trade with Toronto was the most recent gut punch to Mets fans and came as a strong sign that the team isn’t planning on contending for at least three years. While it may hurt fans to watch the lovable Dickey head north across the border, the idea of not contending for the next three years should not come as a surprise.

The recent eight year, $138 million contract extension signed by franchise centerpiece David Wright is evidence that the Mets do plan on returning to contention within that time frame. But as the roster stands now, signing Dickey wont make but a dent in a would-be pennant chase against the Washington Nationals.

In return for Dickey, the Mets received Travis D’Arnaud, the top catching prospect in baseball and considered a future All-Star, and Noah Syndergaard, the Blue Jays’ top pitching prospect.

Without Dickey, the reigning Cy Young winner and a 20-win pitcher a season ago, the Mets can plan on a race against the Marlins for last place in the division in 2013. Winning 20 games in a season with a 2012 Mets offense is incredible, and in 2013 no Mets pitcher will be able to come close to that number of wins.

That said, the Mets didn’t trade Dickey to improve in 2013. They currently don’t have anything resembling an outfield and are still waiting for star prospect Zach Wheeler to be ready for the big leagues and for Matt Harvey to mature into a legit number two.

In the time it takes for Wheeler, Harvey, Syndergaard and D’Arnaud to mature into big leaguers that can have impact, outfielders Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Lucas Duda will hopefully be more consistent. If not, they will have ample time to shop around.

If Syndergaard and D’Arnaud pan out the way they are projected, they should fit in nicely with a roster that will also include Wright, Johan Santana, Wheeler, Harvey, Ike Davis, Nieuwenhuis and Duda.

That should be a young team that can contend with the division-rival Nationals in the near future when the now 38-year-old Dickey will likely be enjoying retirement.

While the Dickey trade seems like the most shocking of the recent departures of Mets star players and another case of penny-pinching by Mets owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon, it will most certainly prove beneficial in the near future.

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The New York Mets have sent R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays, and the identity of the franchise, into a state of flux, hoping to reach the playoffs by 2015.

For Sandy Alderson and the front office of the New York Mets, it became clear that their management is planning for the season of 2015 rather than 2013. The fact of the matter is that the Mets have a strategy in mind, and it has everything to do with the prospects rising within their system.

The Mets may be admitting defeat, but they also realize they will not contend for the next couple of seasons. And while it’s difficult for me to write an article praising the departure of my favorite player in the MLB from my favorite team, it’s easy to see why the Mets made this trade.   

With constant unwelcoming reminders, it’s never hard to forget that baseball is a competitive game, and one rooted in business. If the price isn’t right to make your team the best that it can be over the long haul, the pieces simply won’t fit into the puzzle.

Keeping R.A. Dickey until he was 41 years old simply was not what they foresaw as the best option for their success, as they capitalized on a market hungry for starting pitching.

“I recognize this is an entertainment business and it was great to have R.A. here,” said Mets GM Sandy Alderson. “Were we not able to get the quality in return … I expect R.A. would have remained a Met.”

If you’re looking for a piece on how the Mets mistreated Dickey and threw him under the bus, it’s true. The Mets showed very little appreciation for R.A. Dickey and the wonderful things he has contributed to the game of baseball in the past two years. And you don’t need me to convince you of this once more, especially when so many other writers are arguing this.

Ultimately, the Mets made a smart baseball decision in their move to pick up Travis D’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard.

This follows a trend of impressive moves from Alderson, who now has gotten extremely high value for both Carlos Beltran and R.A. Dickey when testing the trade market.

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Before signing with the New York Mets, R.A. Dickey was treading water at the Major League level, finding little success in Texas, Minnesota or Seattle with his knuckleball. 

Now, after three seasons in New York and one National League Cy Young Award, Dickey was hoping to end his career with the team that gave him another chance and put him in a position to have the massive success that he has had. 

However, the knuckleballer and the Mets don’t seem to be in agreement on a contract extension and Dickey has threatened to leave in free agency if one is not worked out by spring training. 

Since the two sides seem unable to work out a deal, the Mets could be inclined to deal their 38-year-old ace. Who are the best fits for a trade of the reigning Cy Young award winner?

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The New York Mets are close to dealing reigning National League Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays, according to CBS Sportsline’s Jon Heyman, who broke the news on Twitter early Saturday morning:

word is, there is agreement on players in dickey trade with #jays. @martinonydn suggests medicals being reviewed.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 15, 2012

reminder: a deal isnt a deal until it’s a deal. multiple deals have been derailed by medicals this winter alone.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 15, 2012

Per an ESPN New York report, the Mets would get catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud from the Blue Jays in return for Dickey.

There may be a sense of panic when it comes to dealing a pitcher coming off a career season, but Mets fans should not worry as general manager Sandy Alderson is making the right move.

Over the last three seasons with the Mets, Dickey has gone 39-28 with a 2.95 earned run average. During that span, Dickey has registered a WHIP of 1.15 and racked up 468 strikeouts with a league-leading 230 coming in 2012.

Those outstanding numbers are great for a knuckleballer like Dickey, but there are other numbers that the Mets should be concerned with.

First, there’s the matter of consistency. While Dickey has been great over the past three seasons for the Mets, his 2012 season could be a fluke.

Prior to signing in New York, Dickey went 22-28 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP over seven seasons. The point is, how do we know that Dickey has mastered the most inconsistent pitch in the majors?

The biggest fear with paying Dickey a boatload of cash is that he’ll fall back into this stretch and the Mets would be on the hook for a highly-paid, underachieving player.

Dickey also turned 38 in October, which means that while the knuckleball has allowed pitchers to have incredibly long careers (see Tim Wakefield, Phil Niekro) the wheels could fall off at any moment.

Perhaps the demands for Dickey wouldn’t be so high if the price of starting pitching wasn’t rivaling gasoline.

With Anibal Sanchez (five years, $80 million), Dan Haren (one year, $13 million), and Joe Blanton (two years, $15 million) getting wildly overpaid, Dickey has demanded a two-year extension worth $26 to $28 million.

With the Mets following in the footsteps of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers, the team can’t afford to spend that kind of money on a high-risk player.

That’s why this trade makes sense. By acquiring d’Arnaud (who hit .333 with 16 home runs and 52 runs batted in for Triple-A Los Vegas in 2012), the Mets will have another bat they can use in their lineup at cavernous Citi Field as well as filling the catcher position for many years to come.

The effects of having a franchise catcher (although risky) are becoming apparent as players like Joe Mauer (three batting championships) and Buster Posey (2012 National League Most Valuable Player) are having major impacts on their teams.

With d’Arnaud only 23 years old, the Mets have a chance to get some pieces for the future while saving some money in the process.

This won’t be a popular move, but it’s the right move to make to achieve long-term success for the Mets.

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It appears the New York Mets have wasted no time in killing any goodwill with the fans by signing David Wright long term. With the trade of NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey potentially looming (per ESPN), we are once again reminded that the Mets have a talent for making the worst out of a good situation.

If there were any possibility of the Mets shedding their new-found reputation for being cheap, general manager Sandy Alderson has squashed any such hope of it.

It’s not like this was unexpected, though. We knew the Mets would trade Dickey if they could bring back a good package of prospects. The problem is that Dickey is the victim of a philosophy that is highly overrated and extensively flawed.

Sandy Alderson came to the New York Mets under the pretense that the Amazin’s would soon become a successful “Moneyball” franchise. What we didn’t realize at the time is that, when you really break it down, no MLB franchise has ever been successful using that model.

The presumption is that Moneyball is about winning via increased emphasis on statistical categories like on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while spending less money than your competitors on players that are unwanted by richer teams.

Alderson may have been a pioneer of sorts, but he never won anything with the Oakland Athletics because of Moneyball.

The A’s of 1988 to 1990 won because they had two jacked-up players in the middle of the lineup, a Hall of Fame leadoff hitter, a Hall of Fame closer, a filthy ace and one of the greatest managerial minds of all time. Any team on the planet would have employed Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, Dennis Eckersley, Dave Stewart and Tony LaRussa. The A’s didn’t exactly scrape the bottom of the barrel en route to success.

The A’s won the 1989 World Series with a payroll of $16.3 million, which ranked them eighth out of 26 teams. That’s not exactly getting by on a shoestring budget.

One aspect of the game that Moneyball seems to ignore is pitching. Hollywood will have you believe that Billy Beane’s A’s were a prime example of a team winning via sabermetrics.

That is simply not true.

The Athletics of the early 2000s won because they had three of the game’s top starting pitchers—Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito—in their primes.

They also had a roided-up MVP in Miguel Tejada to replace another roided-up MVP in Jason Giambi, plus Eric Chavez in his prime. Any film can be good if you base it on revisionist history.

Former pitching coach Rick Peterson has admitted that the contribution of the “Big Three” was a primary reason for the team’s success and that emotion and heart are just as big of factors as OPS in the end. If that’s true, why trade a player like R.A. Dickey, who is full of emotion and heart, when you can build around him?

Dickey’s trade value has never been higher, simply because his overall value has never been higher. He won 20 games for a team that won a total of 74. He is one of the most popular Mets in recent memory. He was the sole reason fans came to the ballpark in the second half of 2012.

Dickey pitched through an abdominal injury for the bulk of the 2012 season and still won a Cy Young Award.

Imagine what he would have done if he were completely healthy.

Now, Sandy Alderson wants to cast him off in favor of prospects, all to save a few bucks? I dare suggest that fans would pay more to see R.A. Dickey pitch once or twice a week than they would to see a bunch of young, not-ready-for-prime-time players every day.

It seems to me that keeping R.A. Dickey is not only the more fiscally responsible move but a better option if the Mets actually want to win next year. They need people like him with proven track records, and he also has genuine care for the fans and the ability to pitch until he’s 45. Giving Dickey the contract he desires would be money well spent.

Unfortunately for Mets fans, Sandy Alderson believes in Moneyball.

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It would appear the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets have agreed on players for an R.A. Dickey trade, but according to Jon Heyman of CBS, stranger things have happened than a trade like this falling through. 

But should this deal go through, Dickey will be the final addition to a Blue Jays squad that catapulted itself into a playoff contender. 

The key Toronto player involved in this trade is top prospect Travis d’Arnaud. 

If you’re not familiar with who he is, d’Arnaud was the cog when the Blue Jays traded Roy Halladay in December 2009. 

Last season he hit .333/.380/.595 in an injury-shortened season. But regardless, he is in fact scheduled to make his MLB debut in 2013, and he seems to have all the tools necessary to make for a solid big league catcher. 

R.A. Dickey is the reigning NL Cy Young winner, and at 38, it’s difficult to tell whether his knuckle ball will continue to break over the plane of the plate for seasons to come.

But alas, there’s no reason to believe it won’t because 2012 wasn’t Dickey’s only quality season. 

Since 2010, Dickey’s had a record of 39-28 and an ERA of 2.95 in 616.2 innings pitched. Not to mention he’s the proud owner of a 1.15 WHIP and two consecutive 200-plus-inning seasons. 

In hindsight, the Blue Jays made it seem as though they were looking for a fifth starter. The misconception, though, was that the pitcher was to be a fifth-in-the-order calibre pitcher. In Dickey, Toronto is on the verge of snagging an ace. 

Although the Blue Jays have lost blue chippers Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino and now possibly Anthony Gose and Travis d’Arnaud, this is a case where they have to take risks to win games. 

With the Boston Red Sox trying to sort things out and the New York Yankees getting old and creaky, the time for Toronto to spend money is now. 

Not only do they have a mixed dynamic of power and speed in the batting order, but in Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and possibly Dickey, Toronto has a chance to win every time one of those pitchers take the mound. 

Assuming the team stays healthy and plays consistently, they will be tough to beat. And although the odds are already in their favor, the only thing left to do is go out and play. 

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By all accounts, New York Mets knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is one of the nicest guys around. That combined with his sick knuckleball and incredible life story account for why he’s such a fan favorite.

But now is not the time for Dickey to be Mr. Nice Guy. Now is the time for him to bare his teeth and stomp his feet, and he needs to do these things where his employers can see him. 

The Mets have been toying with the possibility of trading Dickey, the 2012 National League Cy Young award winner. What he should do is demand that they trade him.

It’s either this or Dickey can continue to sit idly by while the Mets downplay his worth to his face, only to turn around and sell him as a true ace to prospective trade partners. As John Harper of the New York Daily News wrote last week, the Mets are treating Dickey like a Cy Young-winning pitcher much more in trade talks than they are in extension negotiations.

According to Andy Martino of the Daily News, the Mets haven’t yet shown a willingness to match Dickey’s asking price of two years and $26 million on top of the $5 million he’ll make in 2013. The Mets are only willing to do a two-year extension worth $20 million on top of Dickey’s 2013 salary.

At the same time, the word from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com is that the Mets have turned away teams willing to offer only one elite prospect for Dickey. They want to get multiple players in a trade for their ace, and good ones to boot.

Understandably, Dickey is starting to get annoyed with the mixed messages the Mets are sending. Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com got a chance to speak to him on Tuesday:

Very pointed comments from R.A. Dickey. Said he likely would be a goner after 2013 season as free agent if Mets just let extension play out.

— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) December 11, 2012

Dickey also indicated pretty strongly that he’s not about to settle for anything less than he’s worth:

Dickey added he has been more than generous in his asking price and feels like he has extended olive branch. Says he’s disappointed.

— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) December 11, 2012

Before the thought even begins to cross your mind, don’t write this off as just another case of a greedy athlete letting his greed run wild. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Dickey has every right to demand the contract he wants, as $13 million per year over two seasons is really not so bad for a pitcher of his caliber. He just won 20 games with a 2.73 ERA while leading the National League in strikeouts and innings pitched. It’s surprising that he’s not demanding more like $15 million per year after the season he just had.

We’re not talking about a one-year wonder either. Dickey has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over the last three seasons, and he ranks in top 20 among starters in innings pitched despite barely ranking in the top 40 in starts made. Considering these things, $13 million per year once again sounds like a steal.

Dickey’s contract demands sound like even more of a steal for the Mets once this winter’s market for pitchers is taken into consideration. He’s asking to be paid roughly $10 million less per year than Zack Greinke, who has a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over the last three seasons.

Also, Dickey isn’t even asking for twice as much money as Joe Blanton and Brandon McCarthy will be making per year in their new contracts, and he’s surely worth at least twice as much as either of them.

Beyond the fairness of Dickey’s contract demands, you can’t call him greedy because this is the first chance he’s ever had to strike it rich in baseball. Baseball-Reference.com has his career earnings marked at just under $9 million, a woefully small number for a veteran ballplayer in this day and age.

This is also probably going to be Dickey’s last chance to strike it rich in baseball. He’s 38 years old, and he’s likely never again going to be able to negotiate a contract fresh off a Cy Young season.

Dickey’s age may be why the Mets are low-balling him in their extension talks, but the age excuse doesn’t work so well for knuckleballers. As Chris Cwik recently pointed out in a piece for FanGraphs, knuckleballers age much better than normal pitchers once they get into their late 30s and early 40s.

In Dickey’s case, it helps that his knuckleball is only becoming more effective with age. In fact, PITCHf/x data (see FanGraphs) had it as the most effective pitch of 2012, better than Clayton Kershaw’s fastball and Matt Cain’s slider.

If the Mets don’t want to pay a premium price for Dickey’s services over the next few years, he shouldn’t feel guilty about trying to put himself on a team that will. The only way he can do that now is by marching into Sandy Alderson’s office and telling him to that the Mets can either give him what he wants, wave goodbye to him for nothing after the 2013 season or trade him now while the getting is good.

A trade demand could light a fire under the Mets, as it may be the motivation they need to bridge the gap between them and Dickey in contract negotiations. If they really want to keep him, perhaps they’ll give in and pay him what he thinks he’s worth (which is already less than what he’s actually worth).

Or, a trade demand could force the Mets into aligning their asking price for Dickey in a trade with what they want to pay him in a contract extension. It would surely still take at least one elite prospect to acquire him in a trade, but perhaps not several.

There is, after all, a limit on how much the Mets can ask for Dickey in a trade as long as he’s only signed for one more year. It’s not like he’s a young, up-and-coming All-Star with years of controllability still ahead of him.

However, any team that is willing to give up a top prospect and one or two other youngsters for Dickey presumably won’t be interested in only keeping him around for one year. Especially not if his contract demands don’t change after a trade, as his desire for two years and $26 million will be just as big a steal in any other city as it is in New York.

The money isn’t the only reason Dickey should be willing to demand a trade. If he’s looking to win a World Series between now and the end of his career, he really doesn’t want to stick around with the Mets and hope that they can shape up in the near future. His best chances at a ring lie elsewhere.

To this point in the offseason, Dickey has been nothing short of a saint. He’s asked the Mets for less than he’s worth, and he hasn’t yet raised a huge stink over the pitiful counter-offers they’ve made him. He may be disappointed, but it’s amazing that he isn’t downright angry yet.

He should be. The Mets haven’t shown him the respect he deserves, touting him only as an elite ace in trade talks rather than at the negotiating table. They have not played nice with Dickey.

Two can play at that game, and it’s about time he suited up.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Salary information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Trade rumors involving R.A. Dickey have generated plenty of buzz during the first two days of MLB‘s winter meetings. But there also seems to be the sense that the New York Mets won’t trade him until after Zack Greinke signs with a team. 

Could both Dickey and Greinke end up with the Los Angeles Dodgers? According to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick, the two pitchers aren’t necessarily an either-or proposition for general manager Ned Colletti. 

The Dodgers could try to get both pitchers, providing their rotation with a top three of Cy Young Award winners that would rival the Philadelphia Phillies‘ trio of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels and make Los Angeles a favored playoff contender in the NL. 

If the Dodgers were to lose out on Greinke, presumably to the Texas Rangers or the Los Angeles Angels, then Dickey would certainly be a fallback option, giving the rotation the strong No. 2 starter Colletti is looking to acquire. 

The presumption is that the Dodgers won’t have to make a choice because they can just pay more than any other team. 

That is certainly true for Greinke and it’s why the Dodgers have always been considered the favorite to sign him. The Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels aren’t going to win a bidding war with the free-spending Dodgers.

But principal owner Mark Walter has expressed a reluctance to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal, telling the Los Angeles Times‘ Dylan Hernandez, “Pitchers break.” That might indicate that the Dodgers won’t give Greinke the six-to-seven year deal that he’s reportedly seeking. 

If that’s the case, then perhaps Dickey is a better fit for the Dodgers. He’s signed for next season after the Mets picked up his $5 million option for 2013. 

However, to make a trade for Dickey worthwhile, Colletti will almost certainly have to agree to a contract extension before finalizing a deal.

The Dodgers didn’t trade for Ryan Dempster because Colletti wasn’t willing to give up top prospects for a two-month rental. Dickey would be with the Dodgers for a full season, so perhaps Colletti would be more willing to part with his young talent. 

According to the New York Daily News‘ John Harper, the Dodgers have made such an offer to the Mets for Dickey. Harper tweeted that Los Angeles proposed a deal involving top pitching prospect Zach Lee and shortstop Dee Gordon. 

Lee is the Dodgers’ No. 1 prospect, according to Baseball America, and that is surely the sort of player the Mets want in exchange for Dickey. Gordon has the potential to be a starting shortstop as well, but he lost that job with the Dodgers because he doesn’t hit or get on base enough. Without that, his speed can’t be utilized. 

So that package probably isn’t enough to interest the Mets. As Harper points out, the Mets want an outfielder in any prospective deal and probably would like a catcher as well. MLB.com beat writer Anthony DiComo doesn’t think Lee and Gordon can made a trade happen either. 

These are the sorts of concerns Colletti doesn’t have to deal with in regards to Greinke. He’ll just cost money. A lot of money. But the Dodgers don’t have to give up any players they project as future stars to get the top pitcher on the free-agent market. 

However, as I’ve written in another article, giving Greinke $150 million could cost the Dodgers even more money down the line when Clayton Kershaw’s contract comes up after next season. Kershaw is even better than Greinke, coming off two outstanding years for Los Angeles. He could very well get a $200 million contract. 

But if Greinke doesn’t get a mega-deal with the Dodgers and ends up signing for less money with another team, perhaps Kershaw doesn’t break that $200 million threshold. Could that enter into the Dodgers’ thinking at all? Do they want to avoid paying $350 million to two pitchers? 

Even if the Dodgers sign Dickey to a two-year contract—or the three-year deal that ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports the knuckleballer is seeking—he would likely cost around $12 million per season. That’s half of what Greinke is seeking. And a three-year deal might be more in line with what Walter believes is appropriate for a pitcher. 

Dickey would also perhaps slot in more comfortably to the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Kershaw and in front of Josh Beckett.

That might not seem like a big deal from a baseball standpoint, but it might be a concern in terms of payroll. Greinke could be getting paid like an ace, yet be the No. 2 guy in the Dodgers rotation. This wouldn’t be an issue with Dickey, who would clearly be the second starter with a shorter contract. 

Yet such matters just don’t seem significant to the Dodgers, especially if their ownership is serious about building a championship contender and becoming the next superpower in MLB. Adding Greinke to their rotation is an impact move that could affect the balance of power in the National League.

The Dodgers have to go big to overtake the World Series champion San Francisco Giants in the NL West. Trading for Dickey would be a good move. Signing Greinke would be a great one. From all accounts, the Dodgers are looking to become great.

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