Tag: Roy Halladay

MLB Power Rankings:The 2011 Phillies and the 10 Biggest Preseason Favorites Ever

Offseason transactions through the history of baseball has often caused a hype for a team’s favor before the season even starts.

Sometimes this hype over a team is created by these transactions, and sometimes this hype can come just from the team’s performance the year before. Sometime it is the combination of both these factors that lead to a mania in favor of one team winning the World Series. We have seen that beginning this year with the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies who acquired Cliff Lee this offseason.

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MLB Power Rankings: Who is the Best of the Philadelphia Phillies Rotation?

The Phillies free-agent signing of starting pitcher Cliff Lee sent shockwaves throughout the country.  Lee was supposed to bolt to the Yankees or stay with the Rangers.  In the biggest swerve of the offseason, Lee decided to return to the City of Brotherly Love.

Philadelphia already had the Big Three of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt.  Now it’s the Big Four, or whatever moniker you desire, with the addition of Lee. 

So now, the expectations are through the roof.  Many questions have been proposed.  Can each individual pitcher win 20-plus games?  Who’s better, Lee or Halladay?   

Only three pitchers in baseball had over 20 wins last year: Roy Halladay (21-10), CC Sabathia (21-7) and Adam Wainright (20-11).  In 1969, the “Year of the Pitcher,” 15 pitchers had 20-plus wins. 

It’s a different era now.  Roy Halladay led baseball with 250.2 innings pitched in the regular season.  In 1969, Gaylord Perry led baseball with 325.1 innings pitched.

Can they be one the greatest staffs of all time? Up there with the Braves trio of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz of the 90s.  The Jim Palmer lead Orioles of the late 60’s and into the 70s. Sandy Koufax and
Don Drysdale on the Dodger staffs of the 1960s. The Mets duo of Dwight Gooden and Ron Darling led the way for the Mets in the 1980s.

Another tidbit to put out there.  The top three WHIP leaders from last season are in the “Big Four”: Cliff Lee (1.00), Roy Oswalt (1.03) and Roy Halladay (1.04).  Cole Hamels, the other entity of the “Big Four,” had a 1.18 WHIP. 

It’ll be interesting to see how this staff gets recognized from a statistical standpoint in the all-time ranks as the season progresses.

Now it’s time to see what this potentially, all-time, dominant staff can do out on the field.  That’s the biggest question of them all.  Can they bring home another World Series crown?

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That’s Just Wrong: The Filthiest Major League Pitches of 2010

With 2010 being “The Year of the Pitcher” it seemed high time someone threw together a list of the nastiest pitches from the season. 

This list isn’t based on any statistical evidence, merely on my opinion and observations. 

Credit for my inspiration for this list goes to Joel Reuter who compiled a similar list in 2009.

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2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Stats and Fantasy Projections

Spring Training will be here sooner than we think. The Phillies come into the 2011 season with some lofty expectations for themselves. They have mustered up one of the best rotations in the history of baseball with the surprising signing of former Phillie Cliff Lee.

Along with the rotation, the Phillies offense looks to get back on track after having a down year for what they’ve come to expect over the past few seasons. They still have the core group of players on the team, but they are all aging.

The window of opportunity for the team is closing, and that is probably why GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went all out for the next few years with the complete re-haul of the starting rotation.

Here are some fantasy predictions and the projected lineups for the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies.

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Giants Won The Series, So Why Are The Phillies The Favorites?

Over the course of the off season I’ve read my fair share of articles listing teams and their power rankings or their projected records for the 2011 season.  One trend that I’ve noticed is that the Philadelphia Phillies are the favorites of the National League (maybe all of MLB, but the Red Sox really stepped it up this year). Usually, the team to beat is the reigning World Series Champion, which this year is the San Francisco Giants. Even though some credit is given to them, they seem to not be given as much attention as the Phillies. Usually, a fan of the Giants such as myself would cry foul “East coast bias” or something similar to that, but let’s look at this for a bit.

First of all, the biggest debate won’t be decided until at least the All-Star Break come July. Whose pitching staff is better, San Francisco or Philadelphia?  Many have looked into this, so I wont go into too much detail, but it looks as if the starting rotations are both excellent.

Philadelphia has Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hammels, and Joe Blanton as their starting five.  Roy Halladay is great, amazing even.  He won the NL Cy Young award this year.  How? He threw two no-hitters last year, one of which was a perfect game, and then he no-hit the Reds, who had a very nice offense all year that included the NL MVP Joey Votto.  He is no doubt an ace.  

Cliff Lee is next.  He has a career record of 102-61 with an ERA of 3.85, ERA+ of 112 and a WHIP of 1.256 all of which are not bad.  His real value is in the playoffs where, until this post season, he was undefeated with a 7-0 record in 10 games started.  Even with the two losses to the Giants, he is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 0.816.  Not bad at all, not the ace with Halladay up there, but a very solid pitcher.  

Oswalt is another solid pitcher.  Similar win-loss percentage and ERA to Lee, and a better ERA+ and WHIP.  He has completed 10 years in the majors.  Oswalt had a bit of a rough start in Houston in 2010, but really turned it around in Philly, as he went from a 6-12 pitcher to a 7-1 guy as soon as he ended up there.  

Next up is Cole Hammels.  Cole is 26, and getting better each year.  3.53 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 123 ERA+, above an “average” pitcher, and I am going to guess that he’s going to improve.

Finally, we get to Joe Blanton, the number five starter for the Phillies.  Like most fifth starters, we see a drop off in the stats.  He has an above .500 win-loss record, but his ERA is 4.30, and his ERA+ is 99, below average.  His whip is around average at 1.343, but he gives up an average of 10.6 hits/9 innings.

Now to the San Francisco Giants.  The number one pitcher is Tim Lincecum.  The Giants ace is a former two-time Cy Young award winner.  He had a down year in 2010, as evident in his horrific August showing.  He still led the NL in Strikeouts with 231, and had an above average 119 ERA+ as well as having a 9.8 K/9 innings.  The playoffs showed what Lincecum could do when he was on.  He had a 14 strikeout game vs the Braves in his very first playoff appearance.  Additionally, he helped the Giants win their first Word Series title since moving to San Francisco by beating Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. 

Matt Cain is second up.  The Workhorse of the Giants staff, Cain is also the “Veteran” of the staff, as he has been in the Giants’ rotation the longest of any of the current starters.  This year, Cain showed his usual consistent self posting a 3.14 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.084 WHIP, and four complete games including two shutouts.  We also can’t forget his stellar post season.  Cain went 2-0 in three starts with 21.1 innings pitched, a WHIP of 0.938, and an ERA of 0.00.  He gave up one unearned run through 21.1 innings.  

Now on to Jonathan Sanchez, the only Giants starter with a no-hitter.  As many have said before me, Sanchez’s stuff is nasty.  If he was more consistent, Sanchez could very well be the ace of the staff. Sanchez may have an ERA+ of 101, barely above average and an ERA of 4.26, but he is very much improved over the past years, as his ERA dropped 1.17 points from 2009 to 2010.  While Sanchez led the league in Walks, he also led the league in batting average against, allowing an average of 6.6 hits per nine innings and a .204 BAA.  In September and October, Sanchez showed how good he is when he is on.  He was 4-1 with an ERA of 1.01, a WHIP of 1.037, and a BAA of .151.  Unfortunately, he sometimes can let games get away, as seen in the playoffs, especially in the NLCS when he had to exit the sixth game in the second inning after giving up two runs and three hits as well as walking two batters.  Overall, Sanchez is improving though, and I expect more improvement in 2011.  

The Giants’ fourth starter is young Madison Bumgarner.  Because he has only played in parts of two seasons, we’ll just look at his 2010 stats.  He has a 7-6 Win Loss record, an ERA of an even 3.00, a WHIP of 1.306, and an ERA+ of 136.   Not bad at all, especially considering his rookie status.  Moving into the postseason, Bumgarner went 2-0 with an ERA of 2.18, and a WHIP of 1.113, including his eight-inning shutout performance vs. the best lineup the AL had to offer in the World Series.

Finally, we arrive at Barry Zito as the Giants’ fifth starter.  Zito is the only starter on the starting rotation that is over 30.  That being said, he has also performed the worst.  A three time all-star and former Cy Young award winner, Zito was a promising player when he crossed the Bay into S.F, but he has not performed well since then.  He’s gone 40-57 with an ERA of 4.45, a WHIP of 1.408, and an ERA+ of 97. He did show promise at the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010, however, and is solid as a fifth starter.  I have faith that he will step up as his contract is nearing it’s end, and I hope that he can pull it together and at least grab a .500 record in 2011.

As you can see, both rotations are stellar.  In numbers, I can now see why people are saying that Philadelphia has the best rotation, however, we have to keep in mind that in the post season, the Giants beat each of the Phillies pitchers (except Joe Blanton), and the Giants have a much younger squad.  While injuries are possible for anyone, with age comes the greater risk, so I’d say that the Phillies are more likely to get unlucky.  That being said, and because I am a die hard Giants fan, I’d have to say that it could go either way, but I’ll lean towards the Giants and their torture.

Staring Pitchers aren’t the only pitchers though, the bullpen plays a huge part of a team’s success. This is the weakest part of the Phillies’ pitching staff.  Their closer, Brad Lidge had a perfect season in 2009, but in 2010 only had 27 saves.  While his ERA and WHIP are both better than average, he is still somewhat inconsistent.  The rest of the Phillies bullpen is average at best with Madson being their best reliever.  Besides his 2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 64 K’s, the next best is Conteras with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, and ends up with Baez at a 5.48 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP.

The Giants on the other hand have a very good bullpen that includes former TYIB Reliever of the Year Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Castilla, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and Brian Wilson.  Affeldt was injured for part of the year and didn’t seem to bounce back too well until his masterful relief appearance in game six of the NLCS. Santiago Casilla is a great strikeout pitcher with a K/9 of 9.1 and a nice 6.5 H/9. Lopez was wonderful at shutting down left-handed batters, and Romo is a good set up man for the man who led the league in saves, Brian Wilson.  As proof to the bullpen’s strength, anyone can look to that sixth game of the NLCS when the ‘pen had to pitch seven innings of shut out ball to stop the Phillies and take the Giants to the World Series.

Now that we’ve finished with pitching, we can move on to hitting.

The Phillies will probably have a lineup consisting of:

1. Jimmy Rollins    

2. Placido Polanco

3. Chase Utley    

4. Ryan Howard  

5. Raul Ibanez    

6. Shane Victorino  

7. Domonic Brown  

8. Carlos Ruiz      

All in all a very reasonable threat to score.

As we move to the Giants, we see they’ll have: 

1. Andres Torres

2. Freddy Sanchez

3. Buster Posey

4. Aubrey Huff

5. Pat Burrell

6. Pablo Sandoval

7. Miguel Tejada

8. Cody Ross.

 

Looking at the two lineups, I would say Philadelphia has an edge in the hitting department, unless Sandoval really steps up his game to his 2009 numbers, Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, and Freddy Sanchez all do as well as or better than 2010, and Miguel Tejada becomes the power boost that S.F. needs.

Looking at the numbers, I can still see why Philadelphia is the “team to beat”, but you can never write off the San Francisco Giants.  They were written off in 2010, and they made it all the way.  The base statistics may say one thing, but team chemistry also matters, and the Giants have a big advantage on that aspect of the game.

As we look forward to the beginning of Spring Training and the 2011 season we don’t know if the Phillies will be the best team out there, and we don’t know if the Giants will repeat as World Champions. All that is certain is that we are all looking forward to a great season and hopefully a fun and eventful rematch between the Phillies and the Giants.

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MLB Hot Stove: Who Are the Philadelphia Phillies After?

Since signing Cliff Lee to a surprising five-year contract, the Philadelphia Phillies have been eerily quiet in the market this offseason.

The team certainly isn’t going to make any splashes quite as large as it did with the Lee signing, but by no means does that mean that the franchise isn’t going to build depth for another possible World Series run.

With GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. expressing an extreme desire to keep promising outfield prospect Domonic Brown in Triple-A to begin the 2011 regular season, incumbent Ben Francisco is expected to see a major increase in playing time given the departure of Jayson Werth to the Washington Nationals.

Although the team doesn’t have much too much left to spend, they have the best starting rotation in baseball with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt in the fold. And with a still potent offense that is highlighted by slugger Ryan Howard and extraordinary second baseman Chase Utley, this Phillies team could be one of the better squads in recent history.

Let’s take a look at some possible names that the Phillies could still be targeting as Spring Training rapidly approaches.


John Maine, Starting Pitcher

Maine was non-tendered by the New York Mets after spending the majority of the 2010 season on the shelf following shoulder surgery.

Slated for a major role in the Mets rotation, Maine was a major disappointment and has never been quite as effective as he was during a magical 2007 season when he won 15 games.

Maine is primarily a fastball pitcher and perhaps repeated shoulder troubles have sapped the life on his fastball, because he’s not fooling anyone. For the Phillies, he would serve as depth for the rotation should the team be able to work out a deal for SP Joe Blanton to pitch elsewhere. 

If signed, he’s nowhere near a sure bet to make the final roster. He could pitch in relief, but that’s a long shot to happen.


Chad Durbin, Relief Pitcher

Durbin and the team have reportedly exchanged terms on a potential contract agreement, but it seems that the two sides are still a bit apart in negotiations for a new deal.

The journeyman reliever has spent the last three seasons in Philadelphia, and this last season was his best since 2008.

Although the Phils have a rather crowded bullpen, if Durbin reaches an agreement with the team he should carve out a role without any trouble at all.

His demands aren’t thought to be incredibly lucrative, but the Phillies may nonetheless be hesitant to shell out the type of dough that he’s in search for. 


Scott Podsednik, Outfielder

After finishing up the regular season with the Dodgers, Podsednik declined his player option with the team but has yet to find a job this offseason.

Despite being 34 years old, Podsednik managed to swipe 35 bags last season, the majority of which were accumulated before mid-August. Batting .297, it’s clear that he still has the tools to serve as an asset to a team looking for a leadoff hitter.

However, Pods doesn’t exactly offer up much in terms of anything outside of speed and average, and with most teams preferring increased offense in the outfield, he may be relegated to a backup role. 

If the team feels uncomfortable with Francisco, Pods could be a great left-handed option to platoon with and potentially even take over the full-time role before Brown is ready.


Justin Duchscherer, Starting Pitcher

After it’s been reported that both the Yankees and Red Sox have had interest in the former ace of the Oakland A’s, the interest in Duchscherer has been rather sparse of late.

Because he’s been rather injury prone over the last few seasons, it’s understandable that most teams would be hesitant to roll the dice. However, Duch is a very effective starter when healthy, and just one look at his impressive 2008 season will tell anyone exactly that.

He shouldn’t command much more than a $1 million base salary with built-in incentives in the contract, and the Phillies could have a potential steal and one of the best number five starters in the entire National League.


Jerry Hairston, Jr., Infielder/Outfielder

With his brother Scott recently signing a minor league accord with the New York Mets, Jerry is hoping to find a new home sooner rather than later.

After spending last season in San Diego and hitting .244 with 10 HR in just over 400 AB, Hairston should at least be able to find a spot at the end of the Phils’ bench if they can’t secure a more attractive option.

Hairston could serve as a nifty insurance policy to Chase Utley in the infield, as well as Placido Polanco at 3B given his history of health issues throughout the years. Hairston’s versatility would serve the team in a multitude of ways.


Manny Ramirez, Outfielder

Although this possibility is obviously a little far fetched, Ramirez would really be a great addition for the Phillies.

Rather than rolling out a platoon of Ben Francisco and another player (TBD), Ramirez could serve as the everyday right fielder in a Citizens Bank ballpark that would serve to inflate his stats coming off of a down season.

Although they may be the worst defensive outfield in quite some time with the aging Ibanez in left field, the offensive production would be enough to disregard the ineptitude on defense.

If the price drops enough where Philadelphia can make a serious offer, Ramirez would be hard pressed to say no as this would be his best chance to securing another World Series ring before retirement. 


Michael Young, 3B/DH

With the signing of Adrian Beltre, it’s clear that the Texas Rangers don’t view the overpaid Young as part of the long-term future.

Despite the team indicating that he’ll serve as the full time designated hitter, it’s no secret that the franchise would love to move his massive contract in the right deal.

In a rare situation where the trade could serve to benefit both sides, the Phillies could send Raul Ibanez to Texas as he has just a single year remaining on his deal, and take on Young and the remaining tenure of his deal.

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Spring Fever: 10 Keys To a Philadelphia Phillies World Series Victory

As the spring draws closer, the talk of pitchers and catchers starts circulating amongst the fans.

Philadelphia Phillies fans, and baseball fans in general, start to grow restless as thoughts of homeruns and Cy Young Awards dance in their heads.

With a tumultuous offseason almost over, the Phillies roster has been altered in a big way.  It will be interesting to see the effects of the big addition of pitcher Cliff Lee and the departure of right handed hitter Jayson Werth.

The following list consists of 10 things that have to happen for the Philadelphia Phillies to have a shot at another World Series win.

The wait for spring training is on and the let the excitement grow, Enjoy!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Just 29 Days Till Pitchers and Catchers Report

Don’t despair Phillies fans. What has all of the makings of a long, frigid, snowy winter will soon be interrupted with this announcement: “Pitchers and catchers report today!”

Okay, Phillies’ pitchers and catchers don’t report to Clearwater, Florida, until February 13, which is still 29 days away. But consider this: It has now been 83 long, cold, unforgiving days since Ryan Howard infamously struck out looking against Brian Wilson to end the National League Championship Series, and with it the hopes of another world championship.

Phillies fans have now weathered almost 75 percent of their annual baseball vigil, and what a season this promises to be.

This past fall got a little darker when Jayson Werth defected to D.C. for oodles of cash, and then got immeasurably brighter when Cliff Lee returned to the fold.

Although hot stoves have been firing—mostly with optimism—in anticipation of an amazing 2011 season, there are days and evenings when such heat cannot mitigate the realities of winter in the Northeast. There have already been a few cruel days when the number of inches of snow was greater than the number of degrees in the wind chill reading.

The late A Bartlett (Bart) Giammati, once commissioner of Major League Baseball, and former president of Yale University, probably best captured the eternal promise and heartbreak of baseball when writing the following for his Yale Alumni Magazine.

“It [baseball] breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.”

To paraphrase Giammati, the heartbreak is almost over, and presumably there are less than 30 shoveling days till baseball.

Others may prefer Groundhog Day as their personal harbinger of spring, and they long to see what those little rodents (the most famous one being Punxsutawney Phil) will do when the bright lights descend upon their winter burrows on February 2 each year.

“Groundhog Day,” of course, was also the title of a 1993 comedy starring incurable Cubs fan Bill Murray. Ever since that movie, Groundhog Day has entered our pop-cultural lexicon as the epitome of doing the same thing over and over and over and over again.

It was not that long ago that the Philadelphia Phillies staged their annual version of Groundhog Day each season from the end of 1993 until the watershed 2007 season. After the strike of 1994, the Phillies—whether or not they used the same formula each year—never qualified for the postseason. At the same time, the Atlanta Braves were winning the pennant, if not the World Series, every year.

A little known fact is that on every February 2 between 1994 and 2006, a suburban woodchuck named Paunchatiny Phillie would emerge from his burrow just long enough to read that season’s baseball forecast. Once he read the prognostications, he would crawl back into his hole after proclaiming that six long months of baseball were in the offing for Phillies fans.

Indeed, was the heartbreak of the offseason that much worse than the disappointment of the actual baseball played by the Phillies during those drought years? I would still contend that a bad day at the ballpark still beats a day without baseball, but those Phillies squads, run by the likes of John Felske and Lee Elia, were no match for skipper Charlie Manuel’s men.

Indeed, Phillies fans should appreciate the rarified near-dynasty (by modern standards anyway) of the new type of Groundhog Day that has unfolded the last four year and counting:

2007: 89 wins, NL East Champions

2008: 92 wins, World Champions of Baseball (in the words of the immortal Harry Kalas)

2009: 93 wins: NL Champs, runner-up to Yanks

2010: 97 wins; best record in baseball, lost in NLCS

2011: ?

 

Many Phillies fans and non-partisan baseball pundits alike accept as a foregone conclusion that the team in red pinstripes will return to the postseason in 2011, and barring crippling injuries, will be the favorite to return to the World Series.

Such projections make the chilly temperatures, icy roads (and perhaps, even an Eagles playoff loss) a little easier to take. The chatter from the hot stove has a certain warmth, even as we pose some of the following questions:

  • Who is the fifth starter?
  • What about our corner outfielders?
  • Will Jimmy Rollins be, well, Jimmy Rolllins again?
  • What about the bullpen?

The suspicion is that with the four-headed R2C2 monster of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt leading us, the Phillies will sprint to the division title, even if these questions aren’t answered definitively.

There will be time to examine these developments and more, and this columnist will try to do his part to add to the conversation. But for now, I am encouraged that in only four weeks, I can say “Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow.”

That five-word sentence—especially when “tomorrow” truly means only 24 hours away—is one of my favorite sentences in the English language.

It is a declaration so life-affirming that it must be warming the hearts of all true baseball fans. One suspects that even the late A Bartlett Giamatti (to say nothing of Paunchatiny Phillie) is starting to crack a warm smile.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2011 MLB Offseason: Future Hall of Famers By Position

At any given time, there are arguably 30-35 active players in the Major Leagues who are deserving of a spot in Cooperstown once they call it a career. Whom among those on an active roster for 2011 are most likely to be enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame sometime in the future?

The following is a position-by-position list of players who, in my opinion, can start thinking about their acceptance speeches right now.

Disclaimer – In writing this list, no special consideration was given to the “Steroid Era,” and no players were excluded from the list because of suspicion or admission of steroid use.

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Fantasy Baseball Top 30 Starting Pitchers For 2011

There has been some significant movement in our starting pitcher rankings since we originally checked in on them. 

The most glaring change was due to Zack Greinke’s trade to the Brewers, but that’s certainly not all. Let’s take a look at how things currently look:

  1. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
  2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
  3. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
  4. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
  5. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
  6. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
  7. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
  8. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
  9. Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
  10. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
  11. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
  12. Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
  13. Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
  14. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
  15. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
  16. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
  17. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
  18. Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
  19. Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
  20. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
  21. Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
  22. Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
  23. Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
  24. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
  25. Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
  26. Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
  27. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
  28. Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
  29. Matt Garza – Tampa Bay Rays
  30. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox

Thoughts:

  • I know seeing Colby Lewis over David Price seems odd, but I took a detailed look into why I prefer him earlier this week.  Check it out by clicking here.
  • Some people are going to be higher than I am on Matt Cain.  I fear a regression in his BABIP (.260) and control (2.46 BB/9 compared to a 3.37 career BB/9), meaning a rather sizable jump in his WHIP (1.08) could be in store for him.  Yes, he has improved his control for three straight years, but sooner or later, the trend is going to stop.  It’s not to say that he’s a bad option, I just prefer the other options more.  I’ll be taking a look at my projection for Cain in the near future.
  • Since the last time we looked at the rankings Zack Greinke has been dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers, significantly helping his value.  You have to think that he’ll have a higher win upside, while also potentially seeing a bump in strikeouts and a decrease in ERA and WHIP thanks to leaving the DH behind (and facing generally easier lineups).  The former Cy Young Award winner was a Top 20 option prior to the deal but now cracks the Top 10.  For more on the deal, click here
  • Adam Wainwright or CC Sabathia?  It’s virtually a coin flip and, despite pitching for the Yankees, Sabathia does call the harder division home.  When pitchers are as close as they are, I’d generally side with the NL option.
  • Josh Beckett’s inclusion may be a bit of a surprise, given how poorly he pitched in 2010.  However, he struggled with luck (.349 BABIP) and we all know how good he has the potential to be.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him perform like a Top 15 pitcher at year’s end, would it?  (For more on his 2010 struggles, click here)
  • I know some people want to consider Felix Hernandez the top starting pitcher in the league, but I just can’t do it.  Halladay has an edge in both wins and WHIP, while the two will likely be close in the ERA department.  While Hernandez may strike out a few more, is it enough to overcome Halladay’s other advantages?  I don’t think so.  (For a more detailed comparison, click here)
  • I know people are worried about Latos’ workload in 2010, but any pitcher carries a bit of a risk with him.  No one knows for sure how his body will respond, as it’s the same question we’ve had with Tim Lincecum since he entered the league (and how has that turned out?).  With his strikeout rate (9.21 K/9 in ’10 vs. 10.55 over his minor league career), control (2.44 B/9 in ’10 vs. 2.30 over his minor league career) and the benefit of pitching in Petco Park, you have to like his potential to excel once again.
  • Josh Johnson certainly is one of the best starting pitcher options in the league, but he falls just short of the Top 12 for me.  Don’t overlook the fact that he benefited from a 79.2% strand rate and increased his strikeout rate be nearly one K per nine innings (8.22 vs. 9.11).  I know he’s certainly improved since his minor league days, but his K/9 coming up was just 7.41.  There’s a good chance he regresses there, which certainly will hurt his potential value.  I wouldn’t suggest a return to his minor league numbers, but potentially back to the low-to-mid 8.0 range.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

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