Kuzul

Spring training may still be two months away, but the cold winter months have had little success subduing MLB’s offseason hot stove.

The fall of 2010 has been an eventful one in the baseball world, even with the free agent class being as thin as it is.

As always, there are some teams that have added tremendously to their chances of World Series title contention in 2011, and plenty more that have been set back further, whether by their own missteps or by the unexpected choices of those they pursued (cough…Cliff Lee…cough).

With the likes of Adrian Beltre and Vladimir Guerrero still on the market, the hot stove might very well stay that way right up until Opening Day at the end of March 2011.

With that in mind, here’s a mid-December look at the offseason’s biggest winners and losers thus far.

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Cliff Lee is officially a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. The papers have been signed and sealed. Now it’s up to Lee to deliver.

The organization is counting on him to do just that, to the tune of a cool $120 million.

No pressure though, Mr. Lee. Vegas and baseball enthusiasts everywhere only expect you and Phillies to turn the National League into your own personal playground en route to a World Series appearance.

And if you don’t win a title, don’t sweat it. There will be plenty of blame to travel up and down the payroll, which, as of this moment, exceeds $170 million.

But never mind the Series. Before you or any other of the New Four Horsemen hurls a ball plateward this season, there are some questions to answer.

Do the Phillies Now Own One of the Best Rotations of All Time?

If you believe in the power of sabremetrics, then yes.

According Sports Illustrated’s Cliff Corcoran, who accumulated 2011 statistics for each of Philadelphia’s Big Four using Baseball Prospectus’ Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR) — geez, what a mouthful — the quartet of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt compares favorably with some of history’s best pitching foursomes.

Corcoran’s projections predict that in 2011, the Big Four will be worth 26.6 wins above replacement, a figure that compares favorably to what the numbers indicate are the two best pitching rotations since 1954: the 1966 Dodgers and 1997 Braves.

[Side note: For those not up-to-date on their scientific baseball lexicon, the WAR formula assesses how many wins a player is worth over the course of a season.]

That Dodger rotation, which included three future Hall of Famers among the foursome of Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Claude Osteen, and Don Sutton, registered 32.5 wins above replacement. The Braves rotation, with the unforgettable trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, was fraction behind at 32.4.

You make the call. Does the Phillies rotation deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as some of the best of all time?

My answer is no, at least until they prove the numbers are accurate.

How Many Runs Will Lee and Co. Require?

You would think not many. None of the Big Four has a career ERA over 3.85. In fact, in 37 combined years of major league service, there have been only five instances in which any of them recorded an ERA higher than 4.32 in a given season.

The next logical question is, can the explosive Philadelphia offense, which finished 2009 ranked seventh in runs scored, get the job done more often than not?

When you average together the career ERAs of Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, the result is 3.47. In other words, all the Phillies have to do is score four runs a game and they’ll win 130 games in 2011, right?

Easier said than done.

I went into minor detail yesterday about the possible pitfalls that may await the Philadelphia lineup in the absence of Jayson Werth, who was either first or second on the team in nearly every major statistical category last season.

Who picks up the slack? Maybe Domonic Brown, but the 23-year-old only has 62 career at-bats and may not be ready to provide the Phillies with a legitimate threat either in front of or behind Ryan Howard.

Another thing to keep in mind: assuming Brown becomes a mainstay in the place of Werth, the average age of the Phillies lineup this season is nearly 32 years of age. As many teams are trending younger to save cash, Philadelphia will be one of baseball’s older teams. Can they support the pitching staff on a consistent basis over a 162-game season?

Is the Contract Too Long?

Lee signed a deal that guarantees him $120 million over the next five seasons. It also includes a vesting option worth an additional $27.5 million for 2016. Of the three teams lobbying for Lee, Philadelphia was the only one whose offer didn’t include guaranteed money for six seasons; the Yankees offered two deals, one of which guaranteed seven years, while Rangers offered a seventh year as a vesting option.

Lee took the shortest deal. Still, is his new contract too lengthy? Assuming Lee pitches either 200 innings in 2010 or 400 innings over the course of the 2014-15 seasons, and his option vests, he’ll be pitching during the back end of his final season at age 38.

True, left handers generally last longer than right handers, but what kind of production justifies paying that sort of money to a 38 year old Lee, who would be in his 15^th season in 2016?

I suppose that’s why the deal also includes a buyout, valued at a slightly smaller $12.5 million.

Also consider that of the 52 free agent pitchers that have signed deals of four years or more since 1990, only five have averaged 30-plus starts and posted an ERA 20 percent better than the league average, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

If Not No. 1, Then Where?

There’s more than one numbers game involving Lee in Philadelphia, the first of which has to do with the terms of his contract. The other is which slot of the rotation he fills: No. 1 or No. 2?

In all fairness to Roy Halladay and his recent historical heroics last season, he should be the undisputed ace of the staff. He has proven more consistently over the course of his career that he is deserving of that role. But disregarding the whole right-left-right-left setup, wouldn’t Oswalt, whose career ERA of 3.18 trumps Lee’s 3.85, have just as much a right to that second spot? And what about Hamels, whose 3.53 career ERA would fit nicely in the No. 3 hole?

I suppose in the grand scheme of things it really doesn’t matter, but isn’t $20 million just a tad too much to be paying a pitcher that, statistically, is only your rotation’s fourth-best performer?

Does Lee Really Make the Phillies Better?

There’s something to be said for team chemistry. It doesn’t necessarily come in the form of dollars and cents or home runs and on-base percentage. And some managers will tell you they’d rather have a second-tier player who meshes well with the remainder of the locker room than a superstar whose antics threaten to tear at the fabric of the team.

Often times, camaraderie trumps talent. Just ask the 2008 Yankees, who finished third in the AL East and missed the playoffs despite a payroll that neared $210 million.

I’m not insinuating that Lee has been or will be a destructive force. He clearly made the Phillies better in 2009, and there’s no reason to believe his likeable character won’t gel with his teammates this time around.

But there are no promises. Perhaps more in baseball than in any other professional sport, teams have to coalesce into a single, cohesive unit from season to season in order to be successful.

The Phillies had that make up each of the past three seasons. It was one of the biggest driving forces behind their success, and maybe the main reason why they came so close to becoming the first NL team to win three consecutive pennants since the St. Louis Cardinals of the 1940s.

The Phillies may ultimately win 100-plus games with Lee on the roster for a full season. But as the dog days of August give way to playoff races in September, will the Phillies—who welcome back roughly the same cast of characters as in recent seasons—have the right chemistry to propel them into October?

Or will the addition of one single player, even one of Lee’s modesty, be enough to derail what has been the most successful run in team history?  

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New Year’s resolutions for all 30 MLB teams are difficult to craft.

With the big time free agents starting to find homes and the trade market heating up, next years teams are starting to take shape.

Technically, every team’s 2011 New Year’s resolution is to win the World Series in October.

But if you play in Pittsburgh or Kansas City, that probably doesn’t seem too likely.

Now for the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and a few other club it’s too easy to say their resolution is to win the title. So we’ll try to add a little more suspense to it than that.

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The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the most successful baseball teams in the MLB the past three seasons. Recently, as most of you have heard, the Phillies lost their all-star left fielder, Jayson Werth, to the Washington Nationals for a ridiculous amount of money, but also gained the most coveted free agent in the 2010 class, Cliff Lee. Also, they are looking to shop Raul Ibanez, which would mean they would not have a stable outfield. However, this is no reason why the Phillies should not still be an elite team.

1)    Starting Pitching

Pitching wins championships, and the Phillies have plenty of it. Their Big Three, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, all return next season. Now the Phantastic Phour after the HUGE signing of Cliff Lee, the Phillies can almost not even dress any relievers.

Halladay is coming off a career season, winning 21 games and striking out 219 batters, both career highs. He also added another Cy Young Award to his collection, a perfect game and a no-hitter in the postseason. Cole Hamels had a great season to bounce back from a terrible 2009 campaign. He posted a 3.06 ERA after an abysmal 4.32 ERA in 2009. After the Phillies acquired Oswalt, he was un-hittable. His record did not show it at 13-13, but he had a 2.76 ERA, and after losing his first game as a Phillie he won seven straight.

Oh, not to mention, they now have Cliff Lee. Lee is coming off another spectacular postseason. He played in his second World Series, one with the Phillies and one with the Texas Rangers. Last season he posted a very good 3.19 ERA, but for the first half of the season he played on a terrible Seattle Mariners team. He was 12-9, and was injury-plagued in the begging of the season.

This prized free agent signing gives the Phillies the most feared starting rotation in the MLB, if they didn’t have it already. Also, Joe Blanton (who they are also looking to shop) and Kyle Kendrick are pretty good options for fifth starters, winning a combined 20 games in 2010.

2)    Charlie Manuel

As much as I hate Charlie’s in-game strategy, the players love him. He can get any player to play hard. He’s led the team to four straight division titles, back-to-back National League crowns in 2008 and 2009, and another three straight NLCS berths from 2008-2010. The players will always listen to him, and respect him.

For example, Jimmy Rollins did not run a ball out to first base on a ground ball last year. Charlie immediately pulled him from the game, and benched him the next game. He sent a message to the team, to make sure this did not happen again. The Phillies will continue to win under Charlie Manuel. One thing he needs to work on if his public speaking ability in post-game press conferences, but that’s irrelevant at this time.

3)    Howard, Utley, and Rollins

Despite losing Werth, the Phillies return their core players Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. All had injury problems last season, so they’re bound for bounce-back seasons.

Jimmy has not been the same after his 2007 MVP season. His stats and games played have taken a very noticeable drop since the 2007 season. Howard, despite being on the DL twice last season, still hit for 31 HRs and 108 RBIs. Utley has been debatably the best second basemen in the league, but also had an injury-plagued season.

All these players will pick up the team, and fill Werth’s RBIs and HRs. In the postseason, the Phillies looked like a Little League team at the plate. Especially Ryan Howard looking at strike three to end the season. That is just inexcusable, and the Phillies will have to be better from the plate this season.

4)    Fielding

The Phillies are one of the best-fielding teams in the Majors. As a team they only had 83 errors, which was sixth-best in the league. They also were sixth in fielding percentage, and eighth in total assists. Yes, they lose Werth’s big arm in right field, but Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz is one of the better-fielding catchers in the game, and Shane Victorino just won his second Gold Glove in two years.

To wrap things up I will admit the Phillies are losing a big part of their team in Werth, but they will continue to have success like in recent years. A point I did not address in the article is their bullpen. Brad Lidge has to be the Brad Lidge of 2008 for them to be a World Series team again. Without Werth it will be a struggle, but the veteran Phillies will survive and still have great success. 

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Cliff Lee is a happy man.

Forget the fact he swindled himself out of more than $30 million to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. Okay, maybe not swindled, because Lee voluntarily left that money on the table.

He knew what he was doing. He knew he’d be the most at peace in Philadelphia. His trial run there in 2009 — despite the fact the Phillies failed to sign him that time around — was nothing short of magical.

So, it is with shallower pockets but a lighter heart that Lee comes to Philadelphia, providing an already intimidating gang of starters with an additional bully.

Watch out, National League East: Lee’s signing may have been the ultimate kill shot. Sorry, Atlanta Braves: the division was previously a table for two, and you’ve just been asked to leave.

Not only are the Phillies unanimous favorites to win the East, odds makers in Vegas have been influenced by the Lee deal, adjusting Philadelphia’s chances of winning it all from 5-1 to 5-2 overnight — the best in baseball ahead of the Yankees.

The quartet of Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt is unrivaled in baseball: Thirteen All-Star appearances. A combined record of 481-275 and an aggregate ERA of 3.47. Two World Series titles. One perfect game. One no-hitter.

All that and at an average age of 30 — not exactly youthful in baseball years, but not yet geriatric.

The Phillies should be dominant on the mound, just as they should be proficient at the plate — even sans Jayson Werth. Though, it appears, they won’t have to score very much.

On paper, Philadelphia has the look of a 100-win team — easy. By locking up Lee, the Phillies have made the unrealistic prospect of winning four out of every five games somewhat realistic. Based on preseason projections and expectations alone, their backs will be fitted for targets before a pitch is even thrown.

Maybe that’s why the Phillies will disappoint in 2011.

Suppose they win 106 games during the regular season, breeze through the NLDS and NLCS, but come one run short of a world title. Is that, then, considered a disappointment? Some would say yes.

What if Halladay doesn’t even sniff either a perfect game or a no-hitter in 2011, and both Hamels and Oswalt, who has the best career ERA (3.18) of the four, perform like your average third and fourth starters? Does that constitute an underachieving staff?

And assume Lee finishes a hair below his numbers from a season ago (12-9, 3.18), or even those from his first go-around in Philly (3.39 in 12 starts). Will the Phillies’ shrewdness and $120 million sneak attack against the Yankees and Rangers be for naught?

No, but the goals that were set the moment Lee signed on the dotted line say otherwise.

The Phillies now have upwards of $170 million dedicated to the 2011 payroll, including more than $60 million tied up in the Big Four of Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt. Even if starter Joe Blanton, as rumors suggest, is dealt to create space, they would still leapfrog the Red Sox for the second-highest payroll in the majors.

With that sort of cash flying around, isn’t it only reasonable to expect big, big things from Philadelphia this season, much like we do annually from the Yankees, who hand out the game’s most exorbitant paychecks?

Again, most people would say yes.

And what of the offense? There’s a good chance the lineup won’t operate on auto-pilot as often as it did with Werth, who at times was like Robin to Ryan Howard’s Batman, leading the team in games played, runs, walks, doubles, and on-base percentage, and finishing second in home runs, RBI, and hits.

Already under the microscope, much like the pitching staff, how much pressure will be applied to the Phillies’ hitters if they fail to perform consistently? After all, you can’t hold down the opposition’s offense every night.

Philadelphia has the ingredients available for a dream season. But if things don’t go exactly according to plan, which will likely be nothing less than a World Series title, the 2011 campaign may be a recipe for disaster.

How will Lee feel then?

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Philadelphia has just acquired another ace in Cliff Lee. The lefty has arguably been one of the best postseason pitchers of all time. Lee will be joining a rotation that already consists of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. 

All of these pitchers are guys managers would be confident tossing on the mound in Games 1 or 7 of the World Series. The weakest of the four is Cole Hamels, who was the team’s ace when they won the World Series a few years back. The sports world should no longer be surprised seeing more than one superstar on each team. This past NBA offseason, fans around the league saw LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh “take their talents to South Beach.” 

Are the Phillies the Miami Heat of the MLB? 

Both teams have undeniable star power. The Phillies have the best rotation the MLB has seen since Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz were together in Atlanta. The Heat compiled three out of the five Eastern Conference all stars from last season. Both teams have enough talent on their rosters to where it’s almost impossible to miss the playoffs, but can both these teams achieve their goals of winning the championships of their respective sports?

Both teams have one very similar problem. The talent around them may not be enough. The Heat this season have been getting very little help outside of their “Big 3”. The bench hasn’t been scoring enough and the role players haven’t been helping out. Sure, the team is hot right now, but they haven’t really been tested since their winning streak has started. The three of these guys might not be enough to bring the championship to Miami…and the Phillies face a similar problem.

The pitching of the Phillies will be incredible this season. There is no denying that. They have the type of rotation where you wouldn’t be surprised to see back to back No Hitters or Perfect Games. Halladay and Lee are capable of doing both those things and they will be pitching on back to back nights. Oswalt and Hamels have both been aces for their teams in the last couple of years as well. The problem is the team around them…can they hit?

The Phils just lost outfielder Jayson Werth to the Nationals via Free Agency. He has been one of their bigger bats the last couple of seasons. The team was the oldest team in baseball last year and adding Lee doesn’t exactly make them younger. Jimmy Rollins has been irrelevant for almost two years now. Utley was injured for a quarter of the season and Ryan Howard experienced a significant decline in his OPS from seasons before. The team is going to struggle to provide run support for their star studded rotation. 

When you look at it closely, the teams are actually very similar. They might be playing different sports, but they both have the same problem. The talent on their rosters might not be enough to get them to the promised land, no matter how many superstars each team has. It certainly will be interesting to see how the Heat finish out the NBA season and playoffs, and how the Phillies fare next season through a grueling 162 game season and playoffs. 

twitter.com/_ZCO … Follow Me!

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The Cliff Lee signing has put together one of the greatest pitching staffs in recent memory.

The last staff that looked this dominant on paper was the 1993 Atlanta Braves.

Like the Phillies, the Braves had recently signed the best free agent pitcher on the market in Greg Maddux. Maddux had just come off a 20 win season for the Chicago Cubs, and won his first of four consecutive NL Cy Young awards.

Maddux led a staff of four dominating pitchers in Atlanta in 1993. In addition to Maddux, there were also future Hall of Famers in Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. Steve Avery rounded out the four-headed monster in Atlanta that dominated the NL that year with a record of 105-57.

Greg Maddux/ Cliff Lee

The pitching staff comparison starts with Lee and Maddux. Maddux was perhaps the best pitcher of his era. He was a “pitcher’s pitcher,” nicknamed the “Professor.” Maddux would paint the black of the plate consistently. Maddux was known for his control of the strike zone, and craftiness to get hitters out.

Lee has been the best control pitcher in baseball over the last three years. His K/BB ratio of 10.26 in 2010 was the second best of all time, falling only behind Bret Saberhagen in 1994. Fifth and ninth on the all time best K/BB seasons was none other than Maddux.

Maddux in 1993 won his second NL Cy Young. He went 20-10 on the year. He had an ERA of 2.36, with 197 strikeouts over 267.0 innings.

Lee went 12-9 last season, despite missing some time early in the season, and playing the majority of the season for one of the worst offensive teams in the American League.

Given the fact that Philadelphia scored 4.76 runs per game last season, compared to the Mariners 3.16 per game, the win total for Lee should obviously trend upward. 

Season Prediction for Lee: 18-9, 3.05 ERA, 175 K’s over 215.0 innings.

John Smoltz/ Roy Halladay

John Smoltz compares most favorably with Roy Halladay.

Smoltz was the Robin to Maddux’s Batman on the 1993 Atlanta Braves. Gifted with great talent, and a devastating split finger fastball, Smoltz was the strikeout pitcher in the rotation.

After being plucked out of the Detroit Tigers organization in 1987, for then 36-year-old Doyle Alexander, Smoltz dominated for the Braves. He made his debut for the Braves in 1988 and proceeded to put together a Hall of Fame career.

During the 1993 season, Smoltz went 15-11. He had an ERA of 3.62 over 243.2 innings, and struck out 208 batters.

Halladay came to the Phillies last season, after spending 12 seasons in Toronto with the Blue Jays.

In his first season in Philadelphia, Roy “The Doc” Halladay, made an immediate impact.

Going 21-10 and winning the NL Cy Young would be enough for some pitchers to be happy, Halladay went a few steps further.

On May 29th, 2010, Halladay pitched a perfect game against the Florida Marlins. In his first ever playoff appearance, Halladay went on to pitch the second-ever postseason no-hitter, while facing the Cincinnati Reds.

Season Prediction for Halladay: 19-10, 2.65 ERA, 220 K’s over 230.0 innings.

Tom Glavine/ Cole Hamels

Tom Glavine was a crafty left-handed pitcher for the Atlanta Braves in 1993.

Glavine was a two sport star, being drafted early in the 1984 NHL Draft. Glavine was also drafted by the Atlanta Braves that year in the second round. He eventually decided on baseball, making his MLB Debut in 1987, marking the first season of the future 300 game winner.

Glavine, the 1995 World Series MVP and two time NL Cy Young winner, relied on location of an average fastball mixed in with great breaking pitches, most notably a circle changeup on the outside of the plate.

Glavine had his third straight 20 win season in 1993, going 22-6 that season. He had a 3.20 ERA over 239.1 innings to go along with his 120 K’s.

Cole Hamels, 26, was drafted by the Phillies in 2002 and made his debut in 2006.

He has been instrumental in turning the Phillies into a National League powerhouse. His most notable accomplishment was winning the 2008 World Series MVP, while pitching the Phillies to the title.

Hamels, like Glavine, is a left-handed pitcher who spots a good fastball, and relies on a dominating circle changeup to get batters out.

Over the second half of 2010, Hamels may have been the best pitcher in the NL. Despite an underwhelming 12-11 record, this was not indicative of his season. He also sported only a 3.06 ERA over 208.2 innings with 211 K’s.

Season Prediction for Hamels: 16-10, 3.30 ERA, 210 K’s over 200.0 innings.

Steve Avery/ Roy Oswalt

Steve Avery, though many forget, was one of the best starting pitchers in the National League from 1991-1993. His unexpected and quick decline from dominance after the 1993 season tends to overshadow his accomplishments in the early 90s.

Avery, a left-hander, was the 1991 ALCS MVP. He had a great 1993 season, which was his best as a pro. He went 18-6 with a 2.94 ERA over 223.1 innings to go with his 125 K’s.

Oswalt came to Philadelphia last season from the Houston Astros, after being one of the more dominant pitchers in the NL over the last decade.

The right-handed Oswalt still has electric stuff and could be one of the best fourth starters in MLB history. The 2005 NLCS MVP had another great season in 2010. He went a combined 13-13 between the Phillies and Astros. He had a 2.76 ERA over 211.2 innings with 193 K’s.

Season Prediction for Oswalt: 17-8, 2.90 ERA, 190 K’s over 210.0 innings.

Overall

The Phillies now have, with all respect to San Francisco, the best starting staff in all of baseball. Given the top five offense that they can also field, the Phillies should role through the NL East in 2011.

The Phillies in 2010 won the NL East with a ML best record of 97-65. This was quite impressive, due to the extended time missed by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and others throughout the season.

The Phillies, if healthy, have one of the better lineups in the NL, despite losing Jason Werth to the Nationals this offseason.

If the rotation stays healthy, the top four pitchers could win 70-75 games all by themselves. Not to mention, Joe Blanton, as a fifth starter, won 9 games last season. Add that to the bullpen wins and you have a team that could potentially win 110 games next season.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies season prediction: Since we are doing a 1993 Atlanta Braves comparison, I think 105-57 season is a good barometer for the the 2011 Phillies.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Cliff Lee just shocked the baseball world by going back to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Texas Rangers and New York Yankees were widely thought to have been the front-runners for his services, but they’re now left in the dark after his signing.

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The Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation is much too good to be compared to their contemporaries. After signing Cliff Lee to a five-year contract, the Phillies have four starting hurlers as good or better than the rest of the league’s aces. We need a more historical, less comparative context in which to measure their greatness.

How good is this corps, which now features Roy Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt? All four are among the top 20 pitchers of the past three seasons, according to Wins Above Replacement. Halladay and Lee are the two best pitchers in the game over that stretch. Their prospective dominance far out-strips that of any rotation in the past decade, so we need to go farther back.

Where do the Phillies fall all time? How do they stack up against the best rotations ever? Who comes in atop the list? Read on for the top five starting rotations in baseball history.

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Cliff Lee agreed with the Philadelphia Phillies Monday night, leaving many people across the country to wake up to a piece of surprising news. Since when did the Yankees not get who they wanted? And when were the Phillies ever in the conversation?

The contract is said to be a five-year deal worth $120 million, $30 million less than he could have gotten from the Yankees. In all likelihood, Lee wanted to go back to a place where he felt like he’d be at home again. 

He wanted to rekindle the magic of his 2009 World Series run.

Lots of people are going to jump to hasty conclusions and claim that Lee makes the Phillies immediate World Series favorites this year and that it won’t even be close. 

While Lee gives the Phillies an incredible rotation, don’t be so quick to anoint them champions without even playing a game. 

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