Tag: Roy Halladay

MLB Preview 2011: Picking the Preseason All-NL East Team

The National League East is a division that was dominated by the Braves for years, but the Phillies are now top dogs. That is not to count the Braves out, however, as they have a wealth of young talent and a solid pitching staff.

The Marlins are another young team that continues to get better each season, and could be a contender sooner rather than later, while the Nationals seem ready to open up their wallets, as they inked Jayson Werth to a huge contract in the off season and made a run at Cliff Lee. The Mets will look to begin rebuilding, as they have a ton of money coming off the books next season, so a number of young players could get a look this season.

So here is a position-by-position preview of the NL East, as we turn our sights to opening day later this week.

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Being There: An Ode to Baseball

You have dreamed of this moment before you bought your ticket. Indeed, it was the thought of buying the ticket that was the germinating seed of this dream. You have a smile on your face, because you know that you are about to witness a historical, traditional, rarified love…a baseball game. 

Maybe you are with your wife. Maybe you are with your kids. Maybe you are with a bunch of your rowdy friends and you can’t wait to get in the stands to be rowdy with the rest of your “friends” who all root for the same team. Maybe, like myself, you even go alone because once you get there, you are not alone. 

Whichever is the case, you’re ecstatic. The feeling of joy intensifies as you pass through the gate, handing off the ticket to your dreams. The collective hope and joy is all around in the buzz of the stadium and you can feel the immensity of it. 

Then it happens. You have checked your ticket for where you will be sitting then as the concrete walkways and walls give way you look through the first section that you come upon and there it is: The diamond.

Lush and green, with white lines, four bases and a fence that defines the game. It is as if you have walked into a temple. Depending on your perspective, if it is in line with mine, you have. 

We come and unconsciously worship the ghosts of legend. Conjuring up the spirit of those who have come before us and laid the groundwork for this amazing tradition. We do this because we understand that without Babe Ruth, there’s no Roger Maris nor Mark McGwire.

Likewise, we understand emphatically that without Josh Gibson there is no Jackie Robinson and that we would have surely missed out on the greatness of Willie and Hank. Furthermore, without the courageous spirit of Branch Rickey, we couldn’t enjoy it together, as one nation, indivisible with liberty and justice for all. 

When we are truly in the spirit of the legacy of love called baseball this unconscious worship of legend plants the seed in our collective consciousness that asks, who will be the next legend whose name will be inscribed on the consciousness of future generations? What amazing feat has yet to materialize in this game that will be enshrined in the hearts of those unborn? Will it happen today? While I’m here? 

Thus, you run, quickly—so as not to miss a thing—to buy your traditional beer, dog, Cracker Jack, maybe some fries, never minding the ridiculous cost because…it’s baseball.

Upon finding your section, row and seat you squeeze in with 40,000 other folks, the vast majority of which are of the “casual fan” variety. You pay them no mind, because you know that you are in the vast minority of men, women and children that actually “get it.” 

Yes, you are of the other variety of fans. You’re like the elder guy two rows ahead of you that listens to the game on his handheld radio, or like his wife sitting next to him who owns a book of scorecards and is currently going through passed games that she has kept score of. 

You are the fan that nobody understands. They ask, why do fans do such things like listen to the game on the radio, or keep score, or never leave their seat from the first pitch to the last and get annoyed when people want to talk at the most critical stage of the game? 

But imagine what it would have been like if you were able to be in the stadium behind home plate the day that Sandy Koufax pitched arguably the greatest perfect game in the history of baseball. Imagine what it would have been like to be at that game, with a scorecard, to record the moment so that you could frame it and pass it down through your family.

Even more, imagine if you could have been at the game and heard Vin Scully calling those last 6 strikeouts of Koufax’s legendary moment. Priceless.

It is the sound of the bat, the awaiting of the next pitch like the next breath in meditation, the “head game” of trying to out think the person that stands before you and strategizing ways to manipulate your opponent into losing. It is fans who all of a sudden become coaches and writers that live as trickster critics.

It is the long legacy that got us here and the beauty of people from around the world coming to the United States to play this game as this is the stage of the embodiment of the greatest game on earth.

It is “the catch,” “the shot heard around the world,” 100+ years of baseball futility for the Chicago Cubs and 27 championships for the Yankees. It is “Teddy Ballgame” and the legend of .406 and Satchel Paige pitching three innings of shutout baseball at the age of 59.

It is the legend of Josh Gibson hitting a game winning home run in Pittsburgh that landed in the glove of an opposing player the next day in Washington. It is another Gibson, Bob, who managed to average allowing a measly 1.12 earned runs per 9 innings in 1968. 

It is yet another Gibson, Kirk, fist pumping on two bad legs around second base after a game winning home run against Dennis Eckersley. 

It is Joe Carter’s World Series winning home run, the summer of ’98, Curt Schilling’s debated bloody sock and the Red Sox shocking the world to come back from a three game deficit to the Yankees only to sweep my beloved Cardinals in the World Series.

And, yes…it is the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, as much as it is the Dodgers/Giants, Cubs/Cardinals and every team vs. the Yankees. 

It is myth, legend, lore, statistics, hall of fame credentials and potential, endless debates about the who’s, what’s and why’s and above all…it is about the game…and you wouldn’t want to miss any moment of it. 

Yes, you get it. You understand that as Dan Millman learned in The Way of the Peaceful Warrior that, “There are no ordinary moments” and that at any given moment…the extraordinary could happen. You realize that this may be the moment that you get to tell your friends and family of the experience of being there. 

After all, you know, baseball is love. Baseball is a reflection of life. Maybe you relate with the batter that digs his feet in knowing that best in the game only get a hit 3.5 times out of 10, and as he grips the bat with the intention of helping his team toward victory, he understands that it is him against nine guys and the odds of winning are slimmer than the odds of success. Do you feel like him sometimes? 

Maybe in this mirror of life you feel like the pitcher who stares down that very same batter knowing that he has an arsenal of weaponry to slim that guys chances of getting a hit even more. Beyond that, maybe as you relate with the pitcher, you realize that you have a supporting cast of family and friends who have “got your back”—literally. 

Baseball is beautiful, isn’t it? Here you are with thousands of other people that you don’t know from anywhere, that you may have passed on the street and didn’t recognize, and the common thread that is bringing you together at this moment in history is this amazing game played inside (and outside) the lines.  

Indeed, this beautiful sport has nearly everything that life offers; passion, intelligence, philosophy, athletic agility, camaraderie, love, compassion, magic, hatred (of the Red Sox, Yankees and their fans, ha!), hope, promise, integration, humility, entertainment and escape from the worldly politics into the politics of the game. Sure it misses in some areas, but even the perfect game isn’t “perfect” (Sandy threw a wild pitch that sent his hat flying in that last inning). 

So, you sit there, awaiting the first pitch, not thinking about the last, watching with the understanding that being there is an event all to itself.

Whether you are at the stadium or even at home watching it on TV or listening on the radio, as you focus your energies sharply, baseball’s truth springs into your awareness and you are quite metaphorically in the game. 

And that, my friends, is a beautiful place to be. That…is a dream materialized. 

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Pitch Values: Top 10 Cutters of 2010 MLB Season

Before the start of the season, I wanted to see which pitchers statistically had the best fastballs, curveballs, sliders, cutters, changeups and splitters of the 2010 season.

Here are a look at the top cutters of the 2010 season. A few notes:

The Pitch Value data was created by Fangraphs.com. I will be using the statistic, wCT, which denotes the runs above average for a particular pitch—in this case a fastball.  

The “wCT” stat benefits starting pitchers and pitchers who throw a certain pitch more often. Because the more often you throw a pitch, the better the chances are of it being successful.

Sometimes, PITCH/FX does not sort pitches into the right category. For example, Brandon Morrow’s splitter was categorized as a fastball.

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Will Pitching Propel Phillies in 2011? Oswalt’s Close Call Reveals Vulnerability

With Opening Day nearly a week away, the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff is still the top topic of preseason predictions. On paper, the Phils should easily pitch their way to the World Series, but so many things can happen over the course of the season that nothing is certain.

Roy Oswalt’s frightening experience on the hill on Wednesday proved that seasons can be altered in the swing of a bat.

Oswalt took a line drive to the back of the neck in the fourth inning of a Spring Training matchup with the Rays. Manny Ramirez‘s blast sent him to the dirt, but fortunately he only ended up with a nasty bruise and was able to walk off on his own without losing consciousness.

His X-rays were negative, but one thing is positive in Philadelphia, things could have been much worse for the most talked up rotation in the MLB.

Oswalt is lucky he didn’t end up with a serious injury. The Phils have yet to rule out a concussion, but Charlie Manuel expects him to make his next start. Nevertheless, Oswalt took a scary shot and it showed how vulnerable pitchers are on the mound.

Chances are the Phillies’ rotation will be the best around, but fans can only hope that freak accidents and injuries don’t send their stars to the DL.

Baseball may not seem as dangerous as football or hockey, but promising players can be sidelined quicker than a fastball passes over the plate. The ability to stay healthy and consistent over 162 games will determine if the Phillies will live up to their great expectations.

Such factors can cause the downfall of credible preseason predictions. Analysts can only guess. Sports are simply unpredictable. 

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MLB Predictions: A Complete Breakdown of the 2011 Postseason

This is the final installment if a seven-part series predicting the records of each team, and now the playoffs.  The teams that make the postseason in this installment are based off of previous ones.

Now that the 2011 season is closer than ever, and Opening Day is only eight days away, we writers are giving our preseason predictions, and these are mine.  Through careful analysis of records, schedules, transactions, and more I have compiled my postseason picks.

Now, it’s time to break them down.

Matchups in the postseason are incredible, and they always provide fireworks.  The ability to play five or seven games against your opponent is what makes baseball great.  The best teams usually come out on top, but sometimes we have surprises, like the 2008 Phillies or 2010 Giants.

These next slides are my predictions of each postseason series, and breakdowns of each series.  Sure, the postseason is over seven months away, but it’s never too early.

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2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Can Roy Halladay Match or Surpass His 2010 Season?

In 2010, Roy “Doc” Halladay joined a new team, switched leagues in the process and pitched better than ever.

In Doc’s case, that’s saying something. He was coming off eight consecutive stellar seasons as the Toronto Blue Jays ace (which included six All-Star appearances, a Cy Young Award and four other top-five finishes), and although he pitched in relative obscurity, many already considered him to be the best pitcher in the game.

Those who did not know the Phillies’ new ace of aces all that well before 2010 were astonished by his combination of work ethic, nasty stuff and humility.

Those who knew him from his AL East days—where he led an inferior team into battle against the likes of the Yankees and the Red Sox—still marveled at how easily he dominated the National League.

No matter how you choose to view Halladay’s inaugural season in the season circuit, you come away quite impressed.

 

Traditional Stats: 21-10, 2.44 ERA with 219 strikeouts against only 30 walks in a league-leading 250.2 innings pitched. He also led the majors with nine complete games.

Halladay posted a 2-1 record with a 2.45 ERA in his first ever postseason.

 

Inside Numbers: A WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 6.98 and career-best full-season marks for WHIP (1.041 walks and hits per nine innings) and ERA-plus (165: the higher the better—100 is average).

 

Geeky stats aside (and there are tons more that show Doc to be at or near the head of his class), we haven’t even mentioned his special accolades.

Halladay, of course, threw a regular-season perfect game at Florida and hurled a no-hitter against a powerful Cincinnati Reds team to open the playoffs.

He capped it all off by capturing the NL Cy Young Award. In a season that featured very strong performances by the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright and the Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez, Halladay won the award unanimously.

To a team player like Roy Halladay, the opportunity to pitch for a championship contender made 2010 his most memorable campaign.

Indeed, after receiving his Cy Young Award last November, the modest right-hander was quoted by several news sources as saying, “It’s by far the most fun I’ve ever had playing this game. It was just tremendous from Day 1 to the end.”

The beauty of Halladay’s demeanor is that for all he has attained personally in a career that will one day earn him a plaque in Cooperstown, he is motivated by team accomplishments. Setting the stage for new teammates Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee, Halladay wanted to pitch in Philadelphia—for a team and a city that he could help bring a championship.

Last year, for all of his heroics, the team fell six victories short. This year—injuries to Chase Utley and Brad Lidge notwithstanding—the sky is the limit, and expectations are extremely high.

To which this columnist poses the following question:

What can Phillies fans and baseball pundits expect to see out of Halladay this season?

After all, with only 31 wins this year (and if a relative journeyman like Denny McLain could do it…) Doc will earn his 200th regular season victory this year.

Okay, it’s fairly safe to say that no pitcher will win 30 games again, and earning 20 is no mean feat. But what’s a reasonable number?

On the one hand, Halladay, who will turn 34 in May, is certainly pitching like he is in his prime. He is also coming off a combined 272-plus innings of work last year. Can he manage a similar workload in back-to-back years?

Halladay has pitched at least 220 innings in seven of his last nine seasons, including the last five.

There are two ways to look at this.

Pessimistically: It’s bound to catch up with him.

Optimistically: He’s used to the heavy workload and thrives on it—and can one question his preparation and work habits?

(Did I mention that in the history of Major League Baseball, no pitcher born in Colorado and past the age of 30 has ever pitched more than 250 innings in consecutive years? You can look it up. I didn’t, but you can.)

My own middle ground is to hope that Halladay finishes the regular season with somewhere around 230 innings and a full tank for the expected postseason run. Doc has been so consistent the last several years that it is reasonable to expect an ERA at or under 2.75 and about 19 wins (he will be at the mercy of an offense that may not produce as much this year.)

Then, as he everyone knows, it’s all about the playoffs.

Toward that end, the man widely regarded as the best pitcher on Planet Earth took the ball yesterday in a matchup against AL Cy Young contender Jon Lester and the powerful Boston Red Sox.

Halladay (now 3-0) outdueled his Red Sox counterpart, scattering five hits and yielding only one run in 7.2 innings of quality work. Ryan Madson got the last four outs to earn the save.

Alas, it was only March 21, but it was an encouraging sign.

If the same box score unfolds seven months from now, it will be huge.

When it comes to Roy Halladay, is anyone betting against it?

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and public appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report home page.

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2011 MLB Preview: Albert Pujols, Roy Halladay and B/R’s NL Award Predictions

Opening Day is less than two weeks away, which means everyone and his mother is spouting predictions for the coming MLB season.

With so many talking heads out there, where can you go to find a variety of opinions together in one place? 

Yesterday, 25 of Bleacher Report’s MLB Featured Columnists—representing 17 teams—pooled our collective wisdom (or ignorance, if you disagree with us) with our picks for who will win the major American League awards in 2011: Most Valuable Player, Cy Young, and Rookie, Manager and Comeback Player of the Year.

Today, we tackle the National League.

For each award, I’ve included the full vote totals so you can see how we were divided. In addition, writers who voted for the winner and an “interesting pick” for each honor wrote in to explain their choices.

Thank you to everyone who voted and submitted commentary!

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MLB Fantasy Baseball: Best Player to Draft from Each Major League Team

We have been waiting since last October for the fun of the MLB season to start anew. On Mar. 31, 2011 we will get our wish. By that day, all clubs are required to reduce rosters to 25 players and play ball! We have seen changes occurs this offseason as we typically do each year but one thing seems to remain consistent. The same powerhouse teams appear to be set to make a run at the postseason and the World Series.

The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies highlighted the offseason free-agent frenzy. The Red Sox’s biggest moves were signing both Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to long-term deals. They simultaneously managed to re-sign their tenured slugger David Ortiz to a one-year contract.

Meanwhile, the Phillies signed Cliff Lee to bolster their already stellar starting rotation and make them favorites in the NL to make a trip to the World Series.

Many other teams have made significant moves as well. Rather than go into further detail about which teams have made what moves, let us go over who the best players are from each of the 30 MLB teams’ rosters as they stand today. This analysis will help determine which players to draft for your fantasy squads heading into the 2011 fantasy baseball season.

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2011 MLB Preview: Are Philadelphia Phillies a Playoff Team Without Chase Utley?

For the last few years, the Philadelphia Phillies have made their name as an offense-heavy team that occasionally pitched well.

That’s not to say they had no good pitching—they just didn’t have very much of it. Cole Hamels carried the team in both 2007 and 2008, and Cliff Lee was lights-out down the stretch in 2009, but beyond that, Philadelphia’s rotation didn’t scare anyone.

Even in 2010, manager Charlie Manuel sent Roy Halladay to the mound every fifth day (not “every fifth game”) because he didn’t trust anyone else to take the ball.

But by the end of last season, something had changed. The Phillies were the near-unanimous favorites to win the National League pennant not for their bats, but for their arms.

While assertions that the Phillies’ tremendous trio would be unbeatable in a playoff series were quickly proven false, this was a clear shift in the composition of their roster.

Philadelphia still had the offensive prowess to win in a slugfest, but opposing teams were more worried about scoring enough runs than allowing too many.

Now with Lee back in the fold, Philadelphia’s 2011 rotation is undoubtedly the best in the game, and may end up among the greatest of all time. In the minds of baseball’s talking heads, the Phillies have already wrapped up the NL pennant.

But it’s too soon to crown them the champions. The Phillies have a problem that could end up costing them a playoff berth: the lineup.

The Phillies managed just 772 runs in 2010, down from 820 in 2009 and 890 in 2007. Part of that can be blamed on the league-wide drop in offense last season, but the team’s 99 wRC+ shows Philadelphia’s bats to have been slightly below average.

Surprised? Check the stat sheets. Jimmy Rollins battled injuries and continued his descent into mediocrity, tying or setting career lows in nearly every offensive category as his OPS dropped to .694.

Thirty-eight-year-old Raul Ibanez slumped through his worst offensive season in a decade, finishing with an OPS below .800 for the first time since 2005 and missing the 20-homer mark he had cleared the previous five years.

Even Shane Victorino’s game took a turn for the worse; he hit just .259 and posted the worst full-season OPS (.756) of his career.

Even the mighty Ryan Howard looks like he may be past his prime. After averaging 50 homers and 143 RBI from 2006-09 (never dropping below 45 and 136, respectively), he managed just 31 homers and plated only 108 runs last season. His .859 OPS was the worst he’s ever posted.

Throw in his abysmal defense and his premium offensive position, and he finished the 2010 campaign with 2.0 WAR. That’s right, folks—Ryan Howard was a league-average player.

The outlook is even worse for 2011. The Phillies already lost their second-best position player, Jayson Werth, to free agency, and his replacement, young right fielder Domonic Brown, is out for at least a month with a broken wrist.

But now, Philadelphia faces an even bigger problem. Face of the franchise Chase Utley’s knee problems are turning out to be worse than we’d thought.

They are understandably hesitant to let Utley undergo surgery for his tendinitis, but with the non-surgical treatments failing this far, things don’t look good for the five-time All-Star.

Utley is almost assuredly going to miss Opening Day, and while the front office doesn’t expect him to miss the whole season, there is no timetable for his return. If he ends up needing surgery, it could take him months to recover fully.

The salient question is: are they still the favorites without their keystone man? Thanks to some sabermetric projection systems, we can get a good idea of the answer.

The easiest system to use for measuring players’ projected impacts on their teams is FanGraphs.com’s FAN Projections.

Here, the Phillies hold a five-game lead in the NL East over the second-place Florida Marlins; a six-win drop would put them in a four-way tie for the Wild Card.

The fans project 7.9 WAR per 162 games for Utley and -0.2 WAR/162 for his chief replacement last year, Wilson Valdez. In other words, for every 20 games Utley misses, the Phillies lose a win.

By that standard, if Utley misses a month or two, the Phillies are still the favorites in the NL East, but it’ll be closer than they’d like.

If he’s back at 100 percent capacity after the All-Star Break, the Phillies will be in the thick of it, but a playoff berth is far from guaranteed.

And if he misses the whole season or comes back before he’s fully recovered and plays poorly, the Phillies will be lucky to win a Wild Card spot.

What of the more advanced projection systems? CAIRO’s latest projections have the Phillies 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Braves, while PECOTA has them ahead by four.

Using a 5-4-3 weighting system for the last three years, we get a projection of 7.9 WAR/162 games for Utley; making the generous assumption that whoever replaces him will be worth 1.0 WAR/162, the Phillies here lose a little more than a win each month Utley is out.

By CAIRO’s standards, the Phillies still win the division as long Utley comes back by September, Meanwhile, PECOTA says the Phillies will fall to second unless he’s back by the trade deadline.

And that’s assuming the rotation stays healthy, Rollins and Howard don’t slip any further, and Utley is feeling comfortable upon his return—far from a given with this kind of problem.

There’s no way to know how Philadelphia will fare in 2011 until we know more about how serious Utley’s injury is, how it can be fixed, and how long he’ll be out.

Barring a complete disaster elsewhere on the roster, the Phillies should be serious contenders, but in spite of their amazing starting pitching, a less threatening offense and the loss of their best player mean they are far from clear favorites for the pennant.

 

For more of Lewie’s work, visit WahooBlues.com. Follow him on Twitter @LewsOnFirst or @WahooBlues.

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MLB Fantasy Baseball: 2011 Top 35 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Click here to enter the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Team Name Contest

Here’s an updated and expanded look at the 2011 Starting Pitcher rankings.

1.  Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies:  Led the Majors in wins (21), ranked third in WHIP (1.04), fourth in ERA (2.44), and tied for fifth in strikeouts (219). He’s the complete package.

2.  Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants:  Lincecum was 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 231 Ks. That was during an off year. He was untouchable in the playoffs.

3.  Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners:  He was a beast last year, leading the league in ERA (2.27) while ranking second in Ks (232) and 5th in WHIP (1.06). His only downside was the lack of wins (13), a problem that could easily resurface in 2011. It’s not a worrisome enough of a problem to keep him out of the top three.

4.  Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox:  Lester continued to perform at a high level setting a career high in wins (19) and WHIP (1.20) while matching his career high with 225 Ks. His solid 3.25 ERA rounded out his dominance, which should continue with an even better offense backing him.

5.  C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees:  The wins will be there as he’s averaged 20 the past two years for New York. He has had identical 197 K seasons as well, which is not elite, but solid. Low 3.00 ERA and a sub-1.20 WHIP round out his excellence.

6.  Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies:  I still can’t believe Lee joined the Phillies to form one of the best rotations in recent memory. He shouldn’t have a problem increasing that win total, especially since he won’t be facing as many aces. He should post a microscopic WHIP and a low ERA. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, which is the only thing that keeps him from ranking higher.

7.  Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers:  Verlander followed up his 19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 269 K season with a 18-9, 3.37, 1.16, 219 one. Aside from a blip in 2008, he’s been one of the best in the game since 2006.

8.  Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies:  Jimenez had one of the most dominating first halves in history. He finished 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 214 Ks. He has filthy stuff and is a tireless worker.

9.  Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers:  Kershaw was brilliant last year going 13-10 with a 2.91 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 212 Ks. I believe this year he’ll add more wins to the outstanding peripheral numbers.

10.  Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:  It’s possible the best three pitchers in the American League last year (King Felix – 13, Lee – 12, and Weaver – 13) combined for just 38 wins. Weaver led the bigs in Ks (233), posted the 6th best WHIP (1.07), and the 16th best ERA (3.01).

11.  Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins:  Johnson posted the second lowest ERA (2.30) in the league last year while sporting an 11-6 record, 1.11 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts in 183-2/3 innings.

12.  Clay Buccholz, Boston Red Sox:  Buccholz went 17-7 last year with a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He only had 120 Ks in 173-2/3 innings. If he can improve that total, he also top ten potential.

13.  Mat Latos, San Diego Padres:  Latos went 14-10 last year with a 2.92 ERA (13th in the league), a 1.08 WHIP (tied for 7th) and 189 Ks (19th).

14.  Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins:  Liriano successfully bounced back last year posting a 14-10 record with a 3.62 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 201 Ks in 191-2/3 innings. He was 8-3 with a 3.31 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP in the second half.

15.  Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers:  I think a change of scenery will do Greinke good as he’ll actually have some run support. He stayed in a small market, which is probably good for his psyche. I don’t think he’ll bounce back to his Cy Young numbers, but he could certainly be a top ten fantasy pitcher.  ***Update***  Greinke will start the year on the D.L. because of fractured ribs, which moves him down a few slots from 12 to 15.

16.  Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels:  Haren’s overall numbers were somewhat disappointing (12-12, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 216 Ks), but he was rock solid after joining the Angeles going 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 75 Ks in 94 innings. He’s topped 200 strikeouts the past three seasons and he has a 3.55 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since 2005.

17.  Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies:  It’s almost embarrassing how stacked the Phillies rotation is. Oswalt was 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with the Phillies. He finished 13-13 with a 2.76 ERA (8th in the league), 1.03 WHIP (2nd), and 193 Ks (18th). Like Lee, he won’t be facing many aces this year for the Phillies.

18.  Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies:  Hamels bounced back in a big way last year going 12-11 with a 3.06 ERA (17th in the league), 1.18 WHIP (tied for 21st), and 211 Ks (11th). With the studs ahead of him in the rotation, he should have plenty of favorable matchups.

19.  Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers:  Gallardo was 14-7 with a 3.84 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and 200 Ks in 185 innings. He and Greinke form a solid 1-2 punch.

20.  David Price, Tampa Bay Rays:  Price went 19-9 (tied for fourth most wins) with a 2.72 ERA (7th), 1.19 WHIP (tied for 25th), and 188 Ks (20th). He was 10-2 with a 2.12 ERA against the AL East last year. I think he has a hard time coming close to those numbers, which takes a hit on his overall production.

21.  Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals:  He’ll turn 36 early in the year, but after going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA (23rd), a 1.18 WHIP (tied for 21st) and 179 K (28th) season it’s hard not to imagine Carpenter as a solid number two fantasy pitcher.

22.  Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics:  He’ll have to stay healthy, but when he is, he can be downright nasty. He finished 7-6 with a 2.80 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 75 Ks in 112-1/3 innings. He was 4-1 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in September and October.

23.  Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves:  Hanson had an odd year sporting a solid 3.33 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with 173 Ks, but finished 10-11. In 55 starts he has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

24.  Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants:  Cain went 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 177 Ks. In 170 starts he has a 3.45 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He still unlucky posting a 57-62 career mark despite those solid numbers.

25.  Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs:  Garza escapes from the brutal AL East and lands in the National League. The past three years he’s been very consistent posting ERAs between 3.70 and 3.95 and WHIPs between 1.24 and 1.26. His strikeouts were down to 150 last year, but he won a career high 15 games.

26.  Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers:  Scherzer’s 2.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP after the All-Star Break give him considerable promise. With 184 strikeout in 195-2/3 innings, he’s a strong bet to record 200 plus strikeouts in 2011.

27.  Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers:  He went 12-13, but his 3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 196 strikeouts make him a great option.

28.  Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers:  His WHIP (lifetime 1.35) keeps him from being an elite option, but he gives you double-digit wins, a mid-3.00 ERA, and 170-plus strikeouts.

29.  Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros:  After a terrible start, Wandy rebounded going 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA in the second half.

30.  Brett Myers, Houston Astros:  Myers went 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and 180 strikeouts. He was 8-2 with a 2.81 ERA in the second half.

31.  Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks:  Hudson was brilliant coming over in a trade to the D-backs going 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP.

32.  Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays:  Hellickson was outstanding in his cup of coffee going 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts in 36-1/3 innings.

33.  John Danks, Chicago White Sox:  Not a sexy pick, but Danks has three straight seasons with 12 plus wins, a sub-4.00 ERA, and a sub-1.30 WHIP.

34.  Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays:  Morrow struck out 178 batters in 146-1/3 innings. He was 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP after the All-Star Break.

35.  Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants:  Bumgarner went 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA during the regular season. He upped his game in the playoffs going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA.

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