Kuzul

A few days ago, my friend and I had a debate over the HOF credentials of Fred McGriff.  I said- the guy nearly had 500 Home Runs, that’s gotta get him in.  My friend countered back- almost, but not 500.  

When the argument shifted to Mike Mussina, he stood up for him.  He said how Mussina almost had 300 wins.  I countered- almost, but not 300.  

Touche.

I bring this up because with Mussina’s retirement two years ago, it’s conceivable that we won’t see another 300-win pitcher in a long, long time. Jamie Moyer, the current wins leader, hasn’t pitched since July 20th, and at 47 (he’ll be 48 next month), it’s tough to believe that he’ll reach the coveted 300 mark.

So who are the guys with the next best shot: 

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We all know, and will be reminded again throughout the NLCS, about the greatness of Roy Halladay and the precision of Roy Oswalt.

Experts and baseball analysts will pound it into your head how prominent the Phillies 1-2-3 punch is on the mound. My two-year-old nephew knows they are good.

The dynamic duo acquired in highly publicized trades before and during the season have allowed Ruben Amaro Jr. to enjoy his Monet moment. He, after all, helped create these October masterpieces.

As for San Francisco’s late-season transaction, their guy was an afterthought. He was page-two news on a front page bursting with big names and blockbuster deals that transpired during baseball’s 2010 season.

This wasn’t Cliff Lee to Seattle or Texas. Brian Cashman doesn’t bother with guys making under $5 million. A team wouldn’t sacrifice a prospect to gain his services in return. He’s not going to throw a no-hitter this October nor steal Derek Jeter‘s postseason moniker anytime soon.

Maybe you know his name, maybe you don’t.

Cody Ross was placed on waivers by the Florida Marlins in late August. A couple days later he was claimed by the Giants whose reported intention was to blockade divisional foe San Diego from adding him rather than bolster their own lineup. San Fran, at the time, really didn’t have a place for him in the outfield.

Ross was simply a pawn in the playoff chase chess game out West.

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Using our MLB simulation engine we “played” the NLCS Best-of-seven series 1,001 times.

In the table above you will find each team’s chances of advancing to the World Series and how often they win in four, five, six or seven games. As you can see, the most likely scenario is the Phillies beating the Giants in six games 21 percent of the time.

You can view the box scores and summaries of Philadelphia’s six-game series win below.

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This is nothing new for the well-traveled fifth-year veteran who has traded his Dodgers blues for Cincinnati red and Florida fish all in the same season.

But where it started, is where I started, back in 2003 with the Toledo Mud Hens. Cody played while I interned. Ross was a major part of the Tigers’ Triple-A offense that season.

He banged out 135 hits, 20 home runs, 61 ribbies and hit .287 for Toledo earning him a September call-up where he played in six games for the Tigs.

The Mud Hens fanbase truly embraced Cody in ’03. He even reached the pinnacle of having the franchise create and promote his bobblehead.

That’s respect.

“Cody Ross quickly became a fan favorite during his time in Toledo,” public relations director and Mud Hens broadcaster Jason Griffin said. “It was evident very early that he was destined to be a quality major leaguer. It is fun to watch him do well in the playoffs.”

We fast-forward seven years, past the trades for players to be named and get over the Giants’ chess match with the Padres and focus on what Ross has meant to this San Fran team five games into the postseason.

Batting eighth in Game 1 of the NLDS, he reached base twice and collected one of only five Giants hits. It proved to be a big one because his single to left drove in the only run of the game.

Then in Game 4, when Derek Lowe once again looked unhittable, Ross provided the offensive punch his team needed. Trailing 1-0 in the sixth, the guy hitting before the pitcher smacked a solo shot to left to tie the game at 1-1.

Ross wasn’t done.

An inning later, after the Giants rallied to tie the game at 3-3, Ross delivered again with a single scoring the go-ahead and eventual game-winning run.

Talk about your pawn stars.

It should be noted the Marlins were interested in keeping Ross, but the front office was engrossed in promoting outfielder Cameron Maybin to get him some playing time when the rosters expanded.

So, in a way, Ross has Maybin to thank for his opportunity this October.

And, in a weird twist, Ross and Maybin both have the Tigers to thank for drafting them.

It’s transactional irony worthy of the front page.

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Below is a game-by-game summary and related box score of our simulation’s predicted results.

Tim Lincecum has been known to do it with his arm, but with his stick?

In 246 career at-bats, “The Freak” has never hit a home run for the Giants. That was until he went deep in Game 1’s simulation of the NLCS. The chances of a Lincecum long-ball are so rare I won’t waste your time with all the zeroes following the decimal.

To make the feat even greater, the Giants’ No. 1 starter hit the homer in the top of the eighth inning to give his team a 5-3 lead. Some good wood to match his lights-out effort on the mound, allowing three ERs in eight innings.

Roy Halladay lasted seven innings allowing four earn runs on 11 hits. It was a far cry from his dominant performance against the Reds in the NLDS.

The Giants break serve and take Game 1 of the NLCS winning 5-3.

We knew the pitching matchups in this series would be worth the price of admission.

Okay, maybe not. But we were hip to the fact that hitters would play second fiddle to the hurlers.

Matt Cain would go the distance, while Cole Hamels’ five walks would come back to haunt him in Game 2.

Juan Uribe‘s ground-rule double in the sixth tacked on an insurance run the Giants would need in the ninth.

Cain, cruising to that point, allowed Ryan Howard to take him deep. The solo shot cut the San Fran lead to one, but MC finished what he started and got pinch-hitter Mike Sweeney to fly out and end it.

The Giants take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series as both teams head to the West Coast.

The Phillies found themselves in one of those must-win situations.

Roy Oswalt answered the call. Boy, I’m sure Charlie Manuel is stoked (as stoked as Manuel can get) that Ruben Amaro Jr. pulled the trigger with the Astros to bring the stud pitcher to Philly.

Oswalt went eight strong, striking out 12, while only allowing one Giants runner to cross home.

San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez got roughed up in Game 3 serving up five earned runs in his eight innings on the hill.

Chase Utley was the main dude at the plate for the Phillies going 3-5 with two RBI.

Philadelphia has life in the NLCS winning Game 3, 5-1.

The Giants elected to start the rookie in Game 4 against Roy Halladay. Now, they may be regretting it.

Bumgarner couldn’t get out of the fifth inning before he allowed six runs on nine hits.

That’s all Roy Halladay would need to bounce back from a rough outing in Game 1. Though he did allow five hits, the Phillies ace did not give up a run in his eight innings of work.

Jose Contreras came on in the ninth to seal up the 6-0 victory.

Jimmy Rollins provided the offense with his 2-4, three RBI and HR effort at the dish.

The Phillies break back to even the series at two all heading into Game 5.

Except for a turbulent bottom of the third, Cole Hamels was a San Francisco treat to watch.

The Phillies took a commanding 3-2 series lead behind the southpaw’s eight innings of work. Although he did allow nine hits on the evening, Hamels controlled the bleeding by holding the Giants to two runs.

Tim Lincecum and the Giants fell behind 4-0 in the first and could never recover. Sergio Romo allowed three more runs in relief to hand the away team a 7-2 win.

The Phillies now return to Philly up 3-2 and in prime position to close out the NLCS in front of a home crowd.

The guy with the best batting average in the series picked the right time to collect his first hit of the night.

Placido Polanco’s bottom-of-the-ninth single to right off Giants closer Brian Wilson sent Carlos Ruiz home as the Phillies win the NLCS in dramatic fashion.

The Phillies head to the World Series with a 4-3 win over the Giants.

Moments prior to Polanco’s game-winner, Giants manager Bruce Bochy was ejected from the game for arguing a ball four call to Shane Victorino. The walk sent Ruiz to third.

The Giants did own a 3-2 lead in the eighth, but Jimmy Rollins connected off of reliever Ramon Ramirez sending a single to right and knocking in Chase Utley to tie the game.

Brad Lidge, seeing his first action of the series, struck out the side in the top of the ninth before the drama unfolded in the ninth.

The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies are headed to the World Series with a 4-2 series win over the San Francisco Giants.

Check out the ALCS preview from WhatIfSports.com.

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The MLB playoffs are in full swing, and we have already seen our fair share of memorable moments in the respective Division Series games. However, the Phillies have been the talk of October thus far, thanks to Roy Halladay’s no-hitter, and their dominant sweep of the Cincinnati Reds.

The Phillies are coming off of their fourth straight NL East title, and have been to the World Series in each of the past two seasons. In this day and age of free agency, a three peat in the World Series is a legitimate dynasty, and the Phillies seem to have all the components to do just that.

So here is a look at what makes the Phillies great, and the reason that this group could very well go down as one of the best teams in the history of the National League when all is said and done, and if they take home the championship as many feel they will.

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Yesterday the San Francisco Giants came from behind to beat the Braves 3-2 and advance to the National League Championship Series. It was their second such victory in as many days and the fourth one run game of the four game series.

The path for the Philadelphia Phillies was far smoother. Roy Halladay threw the second post-season no-hitter of all-time, and Cole Hamels tossed a five-hit shutout as the Phillies easily swept the Cincinnati Reds.

This series will mark the first time these two teams have met in the playoffs and we should be in for fireworks. Both teams have deep rotations filled with proven pitchers, and both teams have areas of weakness.

While San Francisco’s line-up produced the fewest runs of any playoff team and lack a true middle of the order presence, Philadelphia has a bullpen full of talented pitchers who have struggled in the clutch. So who will win this epic match up? Read on for a game by game analysis.

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Here we are once again. There is really nothing quite like October baseball. We spent all summer weeding out the undeserving teams and went from 30 to what will soon be four. 

With the National League series all set and ready to roll, the Giants and Phillies pose some interesting matchups.

The dominance established by the three Philly starters against the Reds could force Bruce Bochy to become more aggressive in trying to push any runs across.

Philly certainly looks like the class of the NL this year. I have scoured the National League and found only two teams that could matchup against the Phillies: the Rockies and the Cardinals. Luckily for the Phillies, neither made the Playoffs. 

The Giants did, however, and after dispatching the Braves in four games with some help from the umpiring crew and Brooks Conrad, they stare at the best team they’ve played all year.

Oh yeah, and the Phillies are also playing their best ball of the year. Poor Giants.

And with that, let’s dive in to the five bold predictions…

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I can’t tell you how much this pains me to say this being a diehard Giants fan. But a noble journalist puts his allegiances aside.

Here is an in-depth comparison of two teams, in amazing detail and quality (HD detail and quality). The main determinant in the series, I believe, will be the powerful offense of the Phils…and the three-runs-is-a-chore offense of the Giants.

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As so dubbed by fans and critics across the country, the 2010 Major League Baseball season has been the Year of the Pitcher. This title is well deserved, as perfect games were thrown by Dallas Braden and Roy Halladay and no-hitters were twirled by Ubaldo Jimenez, Edwin Jackson, and Matt Garza. And no one will forget the rather infamous 28-out perfect game that Armando Galaraga gave us.

With all the masterful performances given to us by the mound masters throughout the season, it is safe to assume that one of the most important components of this October will be the pitching, and so far, it has been. Therefore, a list ranking the top 20 pitchers of this postseason would be an valuable tool. Oh look, I happen to have a list of the top 20 right here!

Granted, due to the fact that there have been games played, this list has changed from its preliminary form. No pitcher has gained or lost more than three spots, but there has been several minor shakeups. So, enough talk, lets take a look at the list.

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Roy Oswalt got roughed up in his first postseason game for the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, giving up three earned runs in just five innings in what would eventually become a Phillies’ Game 2 victory. This was on the heels of Cliff Lee’s first postseason appearance with the Texas Rangers, in which Lee went seven innings, allowing only one earned run with 10 strikeouts and no walks.

So will Oswalt or Lee guide their newly adopted teams to postseason glory? If past midseason pitcher acquisitions are any indication, the odds aren’t good.  Let’s have a look.

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Sorry Blanton. You have really helped the Philadelphia Phillies out the past few years when we needed you. But Joe, we just don’t need you this year.

In their 127-year history, this is the most dominant top end of the rotation for the Phillies. If you doubt that, just ask yourself if there has ever been a Phillies team that you have been more confident in.

Just so you can understand how much better these three pitchers are than any other one-two-three in the league, I’ll throw out some stats for you.

All three of Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt have pitched over 30 starts and over 200 innings. Combined, they have six shutouts, 12 complete games, and one perfect game. They total more complete games than any other team in the league.

Roy Oswalt has the least strikeouts out of the three of them with 192. Cole Hamels has the worst WHIP, at 1.19 (Halladay’s is 1.04 and Oswalt’s is 1.02). That is an extremely high floor for those three starters.

Halladay is the front-runner to win the NL Cy Young award with a 2.44 ERA. Oswalt follows him in the rotation with a 2.73 ERA, finished by Hamels, who has a 3.09 ERA. That’s right, the Phillies have a number three starter who has an ERA just a tad over 3. To put into perspective how good that is, the Yankees‘ number three starter, Phil Hughes, has an ERA of 4.21, and the Braves’ number three starter, Derek Lowe, has an ERA of 4.

The Phillies selected that they would like to play the NLDS in eight days, which allows the Big Three to start every game on normal rest. It’s the NLCS and World Series in which the Phillies have a big decision to make. 

Assuming that they get to the NLCS, there is about .01% chance that the Phillies give Kyle Kendrick the game four start, barring injury. It’s not a secret that the Phillies have no trust in Kendrick and his 4.73 ERA, even sending him down to the minors for a short stretch earlier in the season. This is also Kendrick’s first full year in the majors, after stretches in the previous three years.

So the big decision is to whether start Blanton for game four and have Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels on normal rest for the rest of the series, or to have “H2O” also start games four, five, six, and seven on short rest.

This year Blanton has had one of the worst years in his career. His 4.74 ERA is a good 1.65 more than his teammate one spot up in the rotation. This is one of the biggest drop-offs between a 3 and 4 starter in the league.

Besides the horrid ERA, Blanton has a 1.40 WHIP, 134 strikeouts, no complete games, and no shutouts. He has 28 starts this year, so there is no blaming the injury which put him out all of April for bloating his stats.

Even his postseason stats aren’t as good as most people think they are, with a 3.89 ERA in 34.2 total innings pitched. And even if he had great playoff stats, why should the 34.2 playoff innings he has thrown in the past few years make up for these horrible 174.2 innings he has thrown most recently this year.

So what would ever make me want to start him in important playoff games when we have other great options?

The only reason that there is a possibility of starting Blanton is that H2O might not handle three games rest very well. But there is no reason that they can’t. Each of the big three has pitched over 200 innings, which shows that they can handle the workload. All of them like to work deep into games, and by the results they have showed this season, nothing really throws them off.

There is no way we should risk throwing Blanton when we have pitchers head and shoulders better than him, even if they only have three days rest. Phillies fans are probably familiar with the 2009 Yankees, who only had three good starters on their team, and it worked out just fine for them on three days’ rest.

There is no guarantee that any series will go seven games, which means that there could be only one or two of the Phillies’ starters going on three days rest.

H2O can get lots of rest in the off-season, so the Phillies need to maximize their usage while they are available, in the NLCS and World Series.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Part 4 of 7 Phillies Championship Advantages

As they say, timing is everything. After a highly challenging 2010 season wrought with unending obstacles, that little bit of wisdom might particularly ring true for the Philadelphia Phillies. 

The primary hurdles related to the non-stop stream of injuries that proliferated throughout the season. Perhaps the others involved a sense of confidence that spilled over to become a lack of urgency. 

As the season edged toward late July, to say the Phillies were a disappointment is putting it mildly. Losing six out of seven games after the All-Star break left the team just two games over .500 with a 48-46 record. 

The Phils found themselves staring up at both the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, a full seven games off the pace. Additionally, they had four teams ahead of them in the wild-card race. 

The next day, Cole Hamels locked into a pitcher’s duel with Adam Wainwright in an attempt to avert a four-game sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies finally broke through to score a pair of runs in the 11th inning to secure a gut-check victory. 

Something seemed to kick in on that day. Or perhaps it was the next day. 

Upon returning to Philly, the club announced a changing of the guard in its coaching staff. Hitting coach Milt Thompson was out, Triple-A instructor Greg Gross was back in. 

With all due respect to his abilities, surely Gross didn’t immediately bring pearls of wisdom that caused the club’s dormant bats to awake, but in fact they did. 

The Phillies proceeded to sweep the seven-game home stand against the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks to draw back into contention. 

The impact could be felt in both the clubhouse and the front office. Any notions that maybe this just wasn’t the Phillies year quickly evaporated in favor of a renewed conviction to succeed. 

General manager Ruben Amaro and the organization responded by taking a couple risks. First, they summoned prized prospect Domonic Brown to the big leagues to replace disabled Shane Victorino. 

And, then on July 29th with the trade deadline looming, Amaro pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal to land Houston Astros ace hurler Roy Oswalt. The Phillies now had matching “Roys” to wrap around a resurgent Hamels. 

Surprise that the second-year GM was able to land yet another premier starter was exceeded only by the Phillies ownership’s willingness to take on another big salary. 

Like the uncharacteristic in-season coaching change, the move signaled that the front office was “all in” for 2010. The preseason aspirations of attaining another championship were still clearly in their sights. 

After a somewhat disoriented Oswalt struggled in his Phillies debut and a Brad Lidge meltdown led to a pair of losses in the nation’s capital, the team quickly shook off any disappointment. 

A stretch run to remember resumed. 

The Phillies needed just 66 games to double up their 48-win total. A 48-46 record was followed up with their current 48-18 run. 

Doing the math, that’s a 216-point jump in winning percentage to a spectacular .727 mark. 

As they say, the Phillies truly are peaking at the right time. 

Beyond the empirical evidence, lie the more subjective assessments that further support this to be true. 

The overall team is currently healthier than it has been all season, particularly the starting eight and the back-end of the bullpen. Additionally, each of the “Big Three” has a history of pitching their best when the stakes are the highest. 

In the case of Halladay, his “big-game” reputation has been built with superior work down the stretch in pursuit of a playoff spot. He is 28-11 with a 2.47 ERA over his career in September and October.

Oswalt has done the same. The other Roy sports a 32-9 lifetime record with a 2.59 ERA in those two months—plus a 4-0 postseason record. 

Hamels simply has a pair of 2008 postseason MVP trophies as a testimonial.  

All in all, the timing appears right for the Phillies’ best work of the season just as the fall tourney begins. Yes, timing really can be everything. 

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