Kuzul

With the ungodly signing of Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract the cost of outfield help has gone through the roof. The Tigers are most likely working pretty hard to get a deal in place with Magglio Ordonez to be the right fielder in 2011. However, because of the lack of outfield depth on the free-agent market, Ordonez might be able to land a ridiculous deal. If that happens the Tigers may be forced to look to the trade market.

Dave Dombrowski has shown himself to be an aggressive, gutsy GM. He’s pulled off deals that have worked extremely well (Cabrera, Jackson and company) and some not so much (Renteria). His successes and failures haven’t stopped him from going all out to try and make his team better. Also, knowing how much owner Mike Ilitch likes big-name players, it would not be surprising to see Detroit go after a “shocking” trade. These are two trades I think the Tigers should look into, or at least think about. 

Trade One

Detroit sends SP Andy Oliver, Armando Galarraga, OF Brennan Boesch or Ryan Raburn, and RP Brandon Wise to Milwaukee for OF Ryan Braun and a PTNL (Player to be Named Later).

Two important elements of this: First, Braun would have to OK the trade, and second, Detroit might not be willing to give up major-league quality players to land Braun. 

Why Detroit Would Make This Trade

Braun’s numbers are impressive, despite an apparent decline over the last year. He’s averaged over 31 home runs, 107 RBI and hit above .300 for the last three years. Braun would probably hit fifth, with Victor Martinez moving to the third spot in the Tigers lineup.

The PTNL would probably be a draft pick somewhere between rounds 2-5, which Detroit would probably spend on a pitcher. It became very clear last year that the Tigers absolutely needed to add some more punch to their lineup and adding Braun and Martinez would accomplish that. If Boesch is sent, Raburn will get the chance to start in right, and if it’s Raburn who is sent over, then Boesch will battle with Casper Wells to be the starter in right with the loser being the fourth outfielder. 

Why Milwaukee Would Make This Trade

First, if I were Milwaukee I would want Raburn over Boesch. Raburn hits for a higher average and has shown pretty good power, plus he is a player who can play a lot of positions giving the Brewers some flexibility with double switches and the like. Boesch is a player who seems to project as a high strikeout/above average power guy. It wouldn’t surprise me if Boesch ended up being a player who hits 30-35 home runs with 160 or so strikeouts. 

Also, Milwaukee has made no secret of its need and desire to add pitching to a club that had one of the worst ERAs in the senior circuit last year. Oliver is one of the highly regarded LH starters in the minors, and is considered a candidate in Detroit for the fifth spot in the rotation. He projects as a top three pitcher and would give balance to an improving Milwaukee rotation. 

Galarraga is a pitcher who I think is better suited to play in the national league. He is still young enough and cheap enough that he is worth the flier. If nothing else, Galarraga has shown he can pitch in the majors and would add depth.

Brandon Wise is one of the better minor-league bullpen arms for Detroit. He should be able to compete for a big-league spot, and adds depth for a team in desperate need of pitching depth. 

Trade Two

Detroit Sends SP Andy Oliver, OF/IF Ryan Raburn, SP Bryan Villarreal, SS Jhonny Peralta and OF Avisail Garcia to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona sends OF Justin Upton, SS Steven Drew, and SP Mike Belfiore.

Things to note: Justin Upton would have to waive his no trade clause to Detroit. Also, I’m not sure what MLB’s rules are on trading players who have just signed. I think if you pulled Drew and Peralta out, both clubs would be able to tell their fans they are in a better position after the deal.

Why Detroit Makes This Trade

The Tigers are trying to add some bulk and defense to their outfield. Upton is still a very young player, who is still developing. He is an above average defender, hits for average (career .272), with some power (19 HRs and 25 doubles averaged over the last three years) and still strikes out too much, but does have a career OBP above .350.

In Drew the Tigers would get a player who is an improvement defensively, with a higher batting average and almost exact power numbers (16 HRs and 35 doubles). The other advantage for the Tigers is Drew is several years younger. Mike Belfiore would give Detroit a pitcher to replace Bryan Villarreal in the lower rung of the Tigers system and would be a developmental pitcher for Detroit. 

Why Arizona Makes This Trade

The Diamondbacks have a new GM who is trying to build up the big-league team and the farm at the same time. Last year’s team really struggled. In Oliver and Villarreal they would have two of Detroit’s better pitchers from the farm. Oliver a left-handed starter would most likely start the season as the No. 3 or 4 pitcher and could improve from there. Villarreal is a developmental pitcher, but put up very solid numbers in two stops this year.

Ryan Raburn has been considered a better fit in the NL because of his versatility. Raburn is a step down defensively, but could end up with the same or slightly better power. Raburn can play any of the three outfield spots and can also play 1B, 2B and 3B. Peralta is affordable and the club would have the option for a third year. Avisail Garcia is considered one of Detroit’s top outfield prospects. He projects to hit for average and power, and play better defense. It is possible Garcia makes it to the majors in 2012.

Ramifications for Detroit

I believe either of these deals would help the Tigers in 2011, however with both of them the Tigers would need to make a couple of moves after the deal to solidify their depth. If Raburn is included in either deal, I think there is still a chance they try and sign Maggs to a one to two-year contract.

Also, Detroit would probably want to target another pitcher to compete for the fifth spot in the Tigers rotation. I would love to see the Tigers follow up a deal like this with a Carl Pavano and Magglio Ordonez signings. If Magglio isn’t signed, then Casper Wells/Ryan Raburn/Brennan Boesch will fill his spot.

Projected Tigers Lineup for Both Trades

Milwaukee Trade

1. CF Austin Jackson (.293, four home runs, 34 doubles, 103 runs, 41 RBI)

2. 2B Will Rhymes (.304, one home run, 12 doubles, 30 runs, 19 RBI)

3. RF Magglio Ordonez (.303, 12 home runs, 17 doubles, 56 runs, 59 RBI)

4. 1B Miguel Cabrera (.328, 38 home runs, 45 doubles, 111 runs, 126 RBI)

5. LF Ryan Braun (.304, 25 homes runs, 45 doubles, 101 runs, 103 RBI)

6. DH Victor Martinez (.302, 20 home runs, 32 doubles, 64 runs, 79 RBI)

7. SS Jhonny Peralta (.249, 15 home runs, 30 doubles, 60 runs, 81 RBI)

8. 3B Brandon Inge (.247, 13 home runs, 28 doubles, 47 runs, 70 RBI)

9. C Alex Avila (.228, seven home runs, 12 doubles, 28 runs, 31 RBI)

Rotation 

1. Justin Verlander

2. Max Scherzer

3. Phil Coke

4. Rick Porcello

5. Free agent/minor-league call-up

For Arizona Trade

1. CF Austin Jackson (.293, four home runs, 34 doubles, 103 runs, 41 RBI)

2. SS Steven Drew (.278, 15 home runs, 33 doubles, 83 runs, 61 RBI)

3. LF Justin Upton (.273, 17 home runs, 27 doubles, 73 runs, 69 RBI)

4. 1B Miguel Cabrera (.328, 38 home runs, 45 doubles, 111 runs, 126 RBI)

5. DH Victor Martinez (.302, 20 home runs, 32 doubles, 64 runs, 79 RBI)

6. RF Magglio Ordonez (.303, 12 home runs, 17 doubles, 56 runs, 59 RBI)

7. 3B Brandon Inge (.247, 13 home runs, 28 doubles, 47 runs, 70 RBI)

8. 2B Will Rhymes (.304, one home run, 12 doubles, 30 runs, 19 RBI)

9. C Alex Avila (.228, seven home runs, 12 doubles, 28 runs, 31 RBI)

Rotation

1. Justin Verlander

2. Max Scherzer

3. Phil Coke

4. Rick Porcello

5. Armando Galarraga/free agent/minor-leaguer

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By many accounts, Ryan Braun disappointed in 2010.  A certainty in the first round heading into the year, his performance has left many fantasy owners on the fence on whether they should once again spend an early-round pick on him.

Let’s take a look (please note, when I talk about the first round, I am referring to a standard, 12-team league):

2010 Campaign: Braun “struggled” en route to hitting .304 with 25 HR, 103 RBI, 101 R and 14 SB.  Granted, the numbers were a regression across the board (he hit .320 with 32 HR, 114 RBI, 113 R and 20 SB in 2009), but are they really numbers that we should be upset with?

There were only nine players in baseball who had at least 100 RBI and 100 R in 2010 and only one other was an outfielder (Carlos Gonzalez).  It certainly is an accomplishment that is often overlooked, but one that is extremely important to fantasy owners.

What happened: The struggles of Prince Fielder appeared to hurt Braun, as the Brewers toyed with flipping the two in the lineup.  It quickly became clear that Braun excels in the third spot, but struggled when moved into the cleanup role:

• Hitting Third – .330, 22 HR, 81 RBI in 464 AB
• Hitting Fourth – .243, 3 HR, 21 RBI in 136 AB

We’ve discussed Fielder’s struggles with runners in scoring position in 2010 before (.233, 2 HR, 47 RB), numbers that surely can’t continue.  That alone should help Braun improve on his numbers in 2011.

Outside of that black hole, the peripherals appear to be consistent:

• Braun posted a BABIP of .331, compared to a career mark of .336
• His fly ball rate was 34.9%, compared to a 34.1% mark in 2009
• His HR/FB rate was at 14.0%, compared to 17.8% for his career (this is the one number that you have to expect him to improve upon in 2011)

Yes, his average was worse at home (.266) than on the road (.336), but that is not something to be concerned about.  His BABIP at home was .275, compared to .381 on the road, meaning while one will likely rise, the other will fall.  There’s nothing to be concerned about there.

His power did struggle consistently in 2010, never hitting more than six home runs in a month (September).  While that could be a concern, he’s only had four months in his career of more than seven.  In 2009 when he hit 32 HR, he never had more than seven in a month.

What to expect in 2011: In fact, he improved on his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive season (down to 17.0%).  If he can maintain that, coupled with a likely improvement in the power department, his average should again be well above .300. 

In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he challenged .320, as he has done twice in his four year Major League career.

There is also reason to believe that the power could easily rebound to around 30, if not more.  Couple that with the consistent threat that he steals 15-20 bases in a season, and he’s appealing right off the bat.

Throw in an improvement from Prince Fielder, likely locking him into potentially going 100/100 for the third consecutive season, and there is a lot to like. 

The fact is, very few players in baseball can hit .300 while going 25/15 (if not better), as well as going 100/100.

Just to make things even more appealing, outfield is not as deep as it once was.  Getting a player of his ability at the position is extremely alluring.

It’s just too much value to overlook.  For me, Braun is a lock in the first round.

What about for you?  Would you select Braun in the first round of 2011?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our previous first-round pick analysis articles:

• Ryan Howard

Also make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s yet another awards season. The latest awards given were the Rookies of the Year. Obviously, there is controversy with awards given, especially the rookie ones.

It’s hard to objectively judge, especially with rookies, as some play in substantially fewer games. It’s one of those awards where any position can win.

Without further ado, here are the 30 best rookie seasons in the past decade.

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The 2005 MLB Draft has brought in some of the youngest and greatest hitters of todays game. Not only hitters, but pitchers too.

The 2005 Draft has created a pool of young, power hitting, power pitching athletes that are some of the best in todays game.

Here is a look at some of these athletes that clubs took a chance on, and came into the bigs surprising everyone.

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When Ryan Braun was named an outfield starter for the National League in the 2010 Summer Classic yesterday—his third straight such honor—the 26-year-old entered uncharted territory for the Milwaukee Brewers.

By getting a third nod (a third consecutive one at that) Braun surpassed the two faces permanently etched on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore: Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, both of whom earned two All-Star Game starts.

Now with all due respect to Stormin’ Gorman, Greg Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz, and Geoff Jenkins (who, by the way, will be retiring as a Brewer come Tuesday), the discussion of Greatest Brewer Ever quite clearly boils down to Yount and Molitor.

And obviously, any claims currently staking Braun to that throne are outrageously premature—both Yount and Molitor put in at least two decades in the majors (and at least 15 years with the Milwaukee organization).

But despite the premature nature of the question, Braun’s unprecedented excellence begs that it be asked: is the Mission Hills, CA, native on his way to becoming the greatest Brewer in MLB history?

Let’s start by comparing the first four seasons of their careers.

It should be noted that Molitor did not play in more than 140 games until his fifth season in the league, and was more or less a late bloomer due to a nasty string of injuries as well as marijuana and cocaine abuse in his first four seasons.

Despite the potential unfairness inherent in analyzing those seasons, however, that’s the only sample we have to use in comparison against Braun.

Also, since Braun has yet to actually complete his fourth year, we must simply use the pace he has set for the season, even though injuries and other circumstances could affect his production in the second half.

So with those caveats established, here’s the breakdown.

First Four Seasons

In Braun’s first four years, he projects to have 715 hits, 150 doubles, 125 homers, 419 RBI, 71 stolen bases, 396 runs, a .300 batting average, and approximately a .360 on-base percentage and a .550 slugging percentage, in 582 games.

Yount, in comparison, totaled 570 hits, 95 doubles, 17 home runs, 181 RBI, 51 stolen bases, 240 runs, a .270 batting average, and approximately a .300 OBP and a .350 slugging percentage, in 569 games.

Lastly, “The Ignitor” compiled marks of 534 hits, 93 doubles, 26 homers, 163 RBI, 107 stolen bases, 287 runs, a .300 batting average, and approximately a .340 OBP and a .400 slugging percentage, in just 440 games.

Using these snapshots then, both Braun and Molitor were outstanding from the moment they stepped between the lines, with both batting .300, and Molitor flashing his rarely mentioned speed, stealing bases at double the rate of Braun.

Yount, on the other hand, started slowly, demonstrating little power until the ‘80’s, when he experienced a surge that he credits to an improved weight lifting regimen.

Overall, though, Braun seems to have garnered himself into the best in his early years by a considerable margin.

Numero Ocho has averaged 1.23 hits per game and a home run every 18.78 at bats.

Molitor averaged 1.21 hits per contest with a home run every 69.46 at bats, while Yount averaged a dinger every 126.18 at bats.

Historical context

Now, it is also imperative we take a step back and contextualize their places in history a little bit.

Braun, in just three-and-a-half seasons, has already left an indelible mark on the major league record books.

After winning the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2007, Braun went on to register the sixth most home runs for a player in his first three seasons (103), trailing just current All-Star regulars Albert Pujols (114), Mark Teixeira (107), as well as three Hall of Fame sluggers, Ralph Kiner (114), Eddie Matthews (112), and Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio (107).

In addition, Braun become the eighth major leaguer ever to finish a season with 100 runs, 100 RBI, 200 hits, 30 homers, 20 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average, when he accomplished the feat last year—an achievement he may very well duplicate in multiple seasons to come.

And finally, Braun has already won two Silver Slugger Awards (given to the best hitter at his position), which compares favorably to Molitor, who earned four, and Yount, who finished with three.

But don’t get me wrong, all of this isn’t to say that Molitor and Yount didn’t reach some amazing plateaus and honors during their playing time.

Both players eventually collected the magical number of 3,000 hits, with Yount accumulating 3,142—good for 17th all-time—and Molitor racking up 3,319, placing him ninth in MLB history.

Beyond that, Yount is the only one of the three to win an MVP award and a Gold Glove, both of which he received in the Brewers’ World Series year of 1982.

Yount also picked up a second NL MVP in 1989.

For good measure, Molitor finished second in his Rookie of the Year balloting, and was also runner-up in the 1993 AL MVP voting.

Moreover, Molitor is part of an exclusive historical club—along with Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, and Eddie Collins—with 3,000 hits, a .300 batting average, and 500 stolen bases.

Most important of all in this discussion, however, is the simple fact that both Yount and Molitor were able to piece together lengthy careers that eventually secured them entrance to Cooperstown, which is one milestone Braun may be on pace for, but is nowhere near sniffing.

Defense

Sometimes lost amid the stat-heavy analysis of hitting in baseball is the other half of the game: fielding. Despite that lack of attention, though, it absolutely must factor into any “greatest ever” debates.

And in this comparison, Yount appears to emerge as the best of the three.

Although he was spotty in the early part of his tenure (almost, in fact, losing the position to Molitor due to a spring training contract dispute in 1978), he would, with time, figure it out.

From 1985 through the end of his career in 1993, Yount would never commit more than 10 errors in a season.

True, this run did coincide with his move to the outfield on account of a shoulder problem, but lest I remind you that Yount was always considered a very good shortstop, and he did take home a Gold Glove at that position, in 1982.

Unlike the other two, Molitor never really found a true home in the field, playing seven different positions serviceably, but without greatness.

This lack of excellence with the leather, along with a history of injuries, ultimately led to Molitor’s move to primarily designated hitting beginning in 1991 and continuing until the end of his career in 1998.

Last but not least, Braun was at first considered a defensive liability when he committed a staggering 26 errors in just 112 games at third base in his rookie season.

Such a performance did not instill fans with much confidence when Braun was shifted to left field for his sophomore campaign.

Yet, since his move to the outfield, Braun has made just three errors, showed an above-average arm, and proved himself more than adequate as a fielder.

It would not be too much of a stretch to anticipate a Gold Glove or two (or three or four) in the future for the man affectionately known as the “Hebrew Hammer.”

So while for now Yount comes away from this category as winner, it is not a foregone conclusion that he will always own that title.

Conclusion

Without question, this discussion is one filled with contingencies and conditional statements.

That’s natural when attempting to project the eventual level of greatness of a player only a few years into his career.

In baseball—more than other sports even—longevity is crucial to an impressive legacy.

With that said, it is easier to finish with a great career when you get off to a great start, and Braun has indisputably done that.

He has already proved himself as an equal to (or likely superior to) the other two in the batter’s box.

And in the field, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt that his upward trajectory as a left fielder will only continue.

As long as Braun stays healthy, and as long as Mark Attanasio is willing to commit a large long-term contract to him in five or six years (or sooner if he sees fit for a raise commensurate to performance), his career promises to be of Hall of Fame caliber.

Therefore, while for now Yount remains the Greatest Brewer Ever, with Molitor a close second, Braun is hot on their trail.

Oh, and while I’d gladly include Prince Fielder in this article since his exploits so far warrant it, I’m just not that naïve.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Power and Speed, two of the five essential “tools” or skills that baseball players are said to possess, and they are lethal when combined. Players like Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Bobby Bonds, Dale Murphy, Barry Bonds*, Daryl Strawberry, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano and Hanley Ramirez all have used their unique combination of power and speed to join one of the most elite fraternities in Major League Baseball. The 30/30 Club. 

A player who hits 30 homers and steals 30 bases is said to have joined the 30/30 club. The 30/30 club has been achieved 54 times in the modern era of baseball. Barry & Bobby Bonds combined, have accounted for ten of them.

The more elite and rare club is the 40/40 club, which has been achieved by Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano. The 50/50 has never been reached, but Alex Rodriguez is said to have come closest in 1998 when he went 42/46 as a member of the Seattle Mariners.

Ian Kinsler was the only player in MLB to achieve 30/30 in the 2009 season with 31 jacks and 30 stolen bags. Unfortunately, Ian started off the 2010 season on the disabled list, likely keeping him from back to back seasons in the 30/30 club.

The following have the best chance to join the elite 30/30 club in the 2010 season:

Ryan Braun (OF-MIL)

This kid is legit. Through 67 games, Braun has put 10 balls in the seats and swiped 11 bags. Projected over the course of an entire season, Braun should reach the 30/30 plateau. Last year, Braun didn’t steal his sixth base until mid-June, so he was a month ahead of schedule in that category. He has since slowed down a bit. My Guess: 34/31.

Matt Kemp (OF-LAD)

Like Ryan Braun, Kemp is one of the brightest young talents in the big leagues. In 2009, Kemp came very close to joining the 30/30 fraternity, finishing the season with 26 HR & 34 SB. While he finished just shy in the HR category in 2009, he sure is off to a nice start this year, as he currently has 11 HR in 69 games. This pace, projected over the course of a full season would put him in the 30+ HR range. In 2008 & 2009, Kemp stole 35 & 34 bases respectively. Expect Kemp to join the elite 30/30 club in 2010. My Guess: 32/34 .

Nelson Cruz (OF-TEX)

In 2009, Nelly went 33/20 in just 128 games. Nelly got off to a fast start in 2010 with 10/7 in just 32 games.  However, Cruz hit the disabled list with an aggravated hamstring, putting his potential bid for a 30/30 or even a 40/40 season in jeopardy. I hope this kid gets healthy soon; he’s one of the most exciting players in the game. My Guess: 35/26   

Next In Line: Carlos Gonzalez (OF-COL)

CarGo, as he’s well known throughout the media, fits the same mold as Braun & Kemp. Although CarGo doesn’t have a full MLB season under his belt yet, he did manage to hit 13 HR and steal 16 bags in 86 appearances in 2009 for the Rockies. While I don’t think he will be able to achieve 30/30 this season, I believe he’s only one year away. The fact that three former Rockies are 30/30 members (Walker, Burks & Bichette) lead me to believe that playing home games at Coors Field will enhance his chances. My Guess: 28/32.

Is it any coincidence that Braun and Kemp were probably drafted in the first round of your fantasy baseball draft? I think not. There is no evidence to support that the first two will slow down and the latter two won’t continue to get better. Get them on your team any chance you get. They will lead you to the “Fantasy Promise Land!”

Do you have any other potential 30/30 candidates?

Please leave feedback with a comment, or hit us up on Twitter!

Twitter.com/thefantasyfix

Article by Alan Harrison exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for more great fantasy insight, analysis and occasional nonsense from Alan.

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With close to 50 games in the bag, some player trends are starting to mold. There are some huge surprises on the list and many big names are missing. Pujols, Howard, Fielder, A-Rod, Teixeira are all guys that missed this list.

Here are your top 10 fantasy players thus far. Four are pitchers and 6 are position players. They are not necessarily in any order. Andre Ethier has been left off the list due to injury.

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I know what you’re thinking.

“All Stars? It’s only the beginning of May!”

Well, believe it or not, All Star voting is well underway. MLB opened the ballots for this year’s game in Anaheim on April 20th, the earliest in the league’s history!

Before you fill out your ballot, let me show you who I think should represent the National League in this summer’s showdown with the American League.

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