Kuzul

Dominic Brown- Untouchable.  Jake Diekman- Off the radar.

As the Phillies try for a sixth consecutive NL Eastern Division crown, it’s obvious this season will be more challenging than the previous divisional crowns.  Injuries and age are taking their toll on this core and the latest blow, a shoulder strain to ace Roy Halladay might be too much to overcome.

The Phillies aren’t the only team to battle injuries this season, and most franchises dip into their minors for help.  Seeing that some of the bigger surprises this season have been Freddy Galvis and Jake Diekman, it makes you wonder if the brass of the Phillies know what they are doing when evaluating talent.

A couple of outfielders were deemed untouchable midway through the 2009 season when the Phils went shopping for a pitcher.  Those two were Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor.

Taylor, 6’5 255 lbs was a 5th round draft pick in 2007.  He eventually was included in the deal after the 2009 season that brought Roy Halladay to the Phillies.  The Blue Jays quickly flipped him to the Oakland A’s where he appears to have turned into a “quadruple-A” type player.  He’s flashed plenty of power and speed at the minor league level but that hasn’t translated to much into a couple of cups of coffee at the major league level and now he’s just another 26-year old in AAA. 

Brown though, was the real prize.  It was thought the Phillies wouldn’t include Brown in any deal.  Not for Halladay, not for Roy Oswalt, not for Hunter Pence.  Brown has done nothing but regress.  He’s actually living up to him being taken in the 20th-round of the 2006 draft. He’ll turn 25 in September and has quickly fallen from a five-tool prospect to a questionable one-tool prospect. In 259 AAA at-bats since the start of the 2011 season, Brown has hit .259 with just three home runs.  Yes, it appears injuries have derailed him but even in his brief call up in 2010 when he appeared to be on top of his game, Brown looked extremely raw, both at the plate, and in right field.

How about Greg Golson?  Golson was traded straight up for John Mayberry following the 2008 season.  After the 2007 season, Golson was listed as the Phillies minor leaguer with the best power, fastest baserunner, best athlete, best defensive outfielder, and best outfield arm.

Check out the Baseball America 2012 Projected Lineup from an article in early 2009:

C- Lou Marson (dealt to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee trade)

1b- Ryan Howard

2b- Chase Utley

SS- Jimmy Rollins

3b- Jason Donald (dealt to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee trade)

LF- Michael Taylor (dealt to Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade)

CF- Shane Victorino

RF- Domonic Brown

SP- Cole Hamels, Carlos Carrasco (Lee), Kyle Drabek (Halladay), Brett Myers, Joe Blanton

CL- Brad Lidge

Yes, these are rankings based from a publication but that is basically from evaluators within the organization.

Freddy Galvis arguably is making a case for “Rookie of the Year” in the National League.  His defense at second has been spectacular, he has held his own offensively, and is progressing nicely.  Why was there any hesitation this spring in making him the guy?

Lefty Jake Diekman was so far off the Phillies radar he didn’t even make the Phillies “Top 10 Prospect” list.  That’s after this 6’4 left struck out 83 hitters in AA last season in 65 innings of work while allowing just 47 hits.  How is a tall lanky lefty who throws 95 dismissed like that?

The answer is simple.  The gang in charge of evaluating young talent within the Phillies’ organization are struggling to evaluate their own, and others for that matter.  The jury is still out on the three they received from Seattle in the Cliff Lee deal.  JC Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont, and Tyson Gillies have not done anything to set the world on fire, and that goes back to the evaluators as well.

Maybe I’m being a little harsh, but the Phillies are nearing a critical stage of the 2012 season.  The time tables on Ryan Howard and Chase Utley’s return are still way up in the air, while Halladay is gone until mid to late July. It’s times like these when other parts of the organization need to show their value. Understanding exactly what they have in the minors can’t be blindfolded “wins” like Diekman or blatant fails like Brown.

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At the quarter pole of the 2012 season, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in unfamiliar territory—staring up at the rest of the National League East.  And while the Phightins are off to their slowest start in the last five years, there’s still reason to believe Philadelphia can claim its sixth consecutive division crown.  

Here are five good reasons to believe.

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According to Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Ryan Howard is starting to get back into the swing of things both literally and figuratively.

The power-hitting first baseman has been cleared for baseball activities and will be heading to Florida on Sunday.

Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said that Howard will begin simply by fielding some ground balls and building up his strength.

“He probably won’t start hitting for at least a few days because he wants to get his legs under him and doesn’t want to get in any bad habits.”

Nevertheless, this is an incredibly encouraging sign.

Last season, Howard hit 33 home runs and drove in 116 runs. Over the six complete seasons that he has played in the City of Brotherly Love, he has averaged almost 133 RBI a year.

Even though his batting average is not the greatest and he strikes out far too much, no one can deny that he’s one of the best run producers in baseball today.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been struggling to produce any offense this season, so his return will be especially vital. In fact, only the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates had scored fewer runs than Philadelphia in all of Major League Baseball.

Howard is not expected to be back in Philadelphia for quite a while yet, and Amaro would not even commit to a timeline, but progress is definitely a good thing and a sign of encouragement for a team that is underachieving at the moment.

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

Follow @spinkickers

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The Phillies have seen drastic ups and downs for the past 20 seasons. 

They lost as many as 97 games in 2000 and won as many as 102 in 2011.  They have been to three World Series (1993, 2008, 2009) winning one and have won the division six times (1993, 2007-11).

So who had the best seasons, by position during that stretch to make up the All-Phillies team of the past 20 years?  Who’s the manager and best coach?

Let’s find out.

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Here are a few fantasy takes from the world of baseball, specifically involving Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay and the Yankees’ latest reclamation project:

News: Ryan Howard likely won’t return to Phillies until late May/early June

Views: I cannot recall one circumstance where a player from the NBA, NFL, MLB or NHL sustained a career-defining injury at precisely the same moment his team was eliminated from the playoffs. So in terms of gaining sympathy votes from Phillies fans and fantasy gurus everywhere, Howard is breaking new ground when confined to the sidelines.

Bottom line, I would only invest a Round 24 or 25 pick on Howard (34 HRs/224 RBIs from 2010-11) in mixed-league drafts; and perhaps Round 21 for NL-only leagues.

Even if Howard says all the right things during his extended spring break, history tells us that major Achilles injuries require at least one full year of controlled recuperation. Sure, Howard may be able to jog well and knock out good swings in a batting cage—but it’s rare for an athlete to regain 80 percent of his/her explosion and power in the first year back—especially one of Howard’s size.

Howard projections: 14 HRs, 43 RBIs, .256 average

News: Andy Pettitte ends one-year retirement to sign with Yankees

Views: Without a doubt, Pettitte had a superb 16-year career with the Yankees (13 seasons) and Astros, notching 240 regular-season wins, five World Series titles and two All-Star berths; and when his name comes up for Hall of Fame consideration in six years, he’ll probably garner more than 45 percent of the initial vote (75 required for Cooperstown).

But just three months shy of his 40th birthday and undoubtedly rusty from his first retirement, Pettitte doesn’t have much cachet for 10, 12 or 14-team mixed leagues. Maybe an AL-only league, but only if you’re desperate for victories.

Pettitte tallied 11 wins, 101 strikeouts, a 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2010, his final campaign in pinstripes. These numbers, representative of a No. 5 or 6 starter in fantasy, likely won’t be repeated this season—given the southpaw’s age and depth of the Yankees’ starting rotation.

His return to the game makes for great copy. Maybe it’ll nudge his Hall of Fame standing a little higher, too. But in the fantasy realm, it’s no more substantial than Jamie Moyer attempting a comeback with the Rockies at age 49.

Pettitte projections: Seven wins, 4.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 91 strikeouts

News: Roy Halladay reportedly incurs drop in velocity during Phillies camp

Views: I can break this one down in seven sarcastic words: As of March 16, I…DON’T…CARE!

Snarky humor aside, it really doesn’t matter if Halladay is struggling to reach his Spring Training peak at this point. At 35 (hardly a death sentence for today’s conditioned athletes) and fresh off a monster season (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 220 strikeouts), it’s impossible to envision old Roy falling off the proverbial cliff anytime soon.

Barring an unforeseen injury or a “dead arm,” I trust Halladay enough to believe he’ll arrive at Opening Day in tip-top shape, or something very close to that. The man’s a Hall of Famer with a near-spotless record of durability, for heaven sake. He has earned the benefit of the doubt.

Halladay projections (subject to change): 18 wins, 208 strikeouts, 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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Do you think the Sizemore family doesn’t matter?

Just ask the Cleveland Indians and the Oakland Athletics, who already have lost one of their own in training camp and been left to scramble for replacements.

The early days of spring training have seen a number of assorted hurts and physical setbacks, some of which are sure to impact the regular season. In reverse order, here are the 20 most significant ones thus far:

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Hey Phillies fans.  Have you heard the news?  The Washington Nationals are taking back their park.  From you, that is.  Like dogs and winning baseball, Phillies fans are no longer welcome at Nationals Park.

Maybe you missed the news.  It is Super Bowl week.  You have likely spent the last few days trying to figure out who to boo the loudest at the party on Sunday, Tom Brady or Eli Manning.  Forget about it.  The “Gnats” deserve your attention.

They tried to avoid it.  They announced their new “Not Friendly to Phillies Fans” policy with great stealth.  It came on a Friday afternoon, the eve of Super Bowl weekend and a day when Philly sports fans were preoccupied with Wing Bowl, an annual Buffalo wing eating contest. 

Sneaky those “Gnats,” like a Cole Hamels changeup.  They are making single game tickets for the May 4-6 series against the Phillies available via an exclusive presale for season ticket holders and residents of Washington, Maryland and Virginia. 

Phillies fans looking to attend can take their cheesesteaks and go home.  “Gnats” chief operating officer Andy Feffer told mlb.com, “Frankly, I’m tired of seeing the Phillies fans in our ballpark in Washington more than anything else.” 

Where’s the brotherly love?  Phillies fans are an amicable bunch.  They might belt out the occasional “Chooch” to recognize favorites such as Carlos Ruiz, but there is little to fear.  These are not your father’s Phillies fans.  They rarely even boo anymore. 

Just prior to embarking on their current streak of winning the National League East five years in a row, the Phillies became the first baseball team in history to lose 10,000 games.  That is a whole lot of heartbreak. 

It has now turned to joy.  An organization committed to winning will do that.  Even last year’s early postseason dismissal, as disappointing as it was, has failed to damper the optimism about spending summer nights in south Philly, or to follow the team on the road.

This was once, not long ago, unmentionable.  Maybe you took the transistor to the Jersey Shore, but that was as much to listen to Harry Kalas and Whitey Ashburn call the games as it was to keep up with the Phillies. 

It’s different now.  Phillies fans are proud of their team.  They are pleasantly surprised to find thousands of their kind, wearing Utley and Howard jerseys, bonding with one another on the road. 

Phillies fans are not hitting the road to hate on the fans of other teams.  They’re doing so because they just can’t get enough of their Phillies.  They are relishing the moment and they are sharing it with one another.  It simply doesn’t get any better. 

This all began with the winning, of course.  Still, loyalty to the Phillies runs deep.  Millions of Phillies fans endured bad baseball for years, whether at Shibe Park, Connie Mack Park or at Veteran’s Stadium.  Throughout, they sat next to plenty of other teams fans who cheered as the Phillies got pummeled.

Attempting to keep out Phillies fans can mean only one thing.  The “Gnats” are nuts.  This is not a surprise.  It’s been apparent for awhile.  They broke the bank, remember, to sign Jayson Werth.  Werth is a good player on a great team.  The “Gnats” are not that.

And maybe, that is the problem.  In announcing his “Take Back the Park” initiative, Feffer informed mlb.com that, “For several years now, our fans, everybody have been screaming about the number of Phillies fans that invade our park when we have a series here at Nationals Park.”

Aiming ire at Phillies fans is misplaced.  It’s a smokescreen that obscures the real problem facing the “Gnats,” bad baseball.  Phillies fans who visit Nationals Park in droves are doing Nationals fans a favor. 

Their presence pressures the “Gnats” ownership to put a team on the field worthy of fan support.  If the Nationals are better this year, they should thank Phillies fans, not work to ban them. 

Especially for a team engaged in our national pastime, playing in our nation’s capital, keeping out Phillies fans is not only ungrateful, it is un-American.  Like betting against Rocky Balboa. 

Cheesesteak anyone?          

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Since its opening season, in 2004, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania has completely changed the face of the Phillies organization.

In 2003, the Phillies ranked 24th in the MLB in attendance. After the inception of Citizens Bank Park in 2004, they rose all the way to fourth. The Phillies have now led all of baseball in attendance for the past three seasons. They are now working on a 204-game sellout streak going into the 2012 season. The stadium sells out every single night, and the atmosphere is perpetually electric.

Not only does this state-of-the-art, $336 million stadium draw in massive crowds, but it supplies them with everything that a baseball fan could possibly dream of. 

The Philadelphia Phillies have created a model of success for other teams to follow in Major League Baseball. Over the past decade, they have gone from the basement of the National League to a perennial powerhouse. This turnaround all began with the introduction of the baseball paradise that is Citizens Bank Park

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If the majority of fans had their way come spring, Cody Overbeck would be the favorite in-house substitute for Ryan Howard.

There’s options to choose from—from bringing up Overbeck or Matt Rizzotti, moving Utley to first while plugging in Valdez or Martinez at second or moving Mayberry to first and plugging in Domonic Brown in left.

Yet, the fans’ favorite choice could be the worst of the litter. 

There’s no doubt in my mind Overbeck would struggle in the majors. Many of his supporters see his .279/.331/.416 line in just under 250 plate appearances in Triple-A as enough evidence that he can adapt to tougher competition and continue his Double-A success(.275/.331/.532 in 257 plate appearances this year).

However, they fail to look deeper.

Two problems quickly jump out when looking at Overbeck’s Triple-A “success” last year. The first being his batting average of balls in play. It was a career-high .370.

Aside from a similar fluky half to start the 2010 season in High-A ball, his career BABIP has been a much more appropriate .300.

That begs the question: What would these fans think if his BABIP was more realistic?

Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume his true BABIP skill level there is .305 and all of those extra hits were merely singles. His line would come to .235/.290/.371.

That’s not as impressive. 

The other major problem for Major League success are his strikeout and walk rates. Guys who strikeout a ton and walk very little don’t often reach the majors. If they do, they do not last long.

Last year Overbeck struck out 27.2 percent of the time while walking just 4.9 percent of the time. That strikeout-to-walk ratio was seventh worst in the International League.

Players with those numbers simply do not do well in the majors. Players in the Major League last year (among 150 plate appearances), who struck out five times for every walk had an average OPS of .632.

Their wOBA was an average .276 and wRC+ was 70, meaning they were about 30 percent worse than an average major league player. For Phillies fans, this is the kind of output Wilson Valdez gives you offensively.

Putting such a player at first base, where hitting is at a premium, is a huge mistake. 

It’s a common theme in his career that he struggles with plate control and power in his stints at a particular level. In his first season at High-A ball, he walked just under 6 percent of the time while striking out over 27 percent. His power was not there either, with a .169 isolated slugging percentage.

The next year at the same level, he improved dramatically. He increased his walk rate to over 11 percent while cutting his strikeouts to 21 percent with a .251 isolated slugging. 

His two years at Double-A showed the same trend. In his second year at Reading, he dropped his strikeout-rate from 27 percent to less than 23 percent. He increased his isolated slugging from .182 to .258.

Relying on Overbeck to improve or provide adequate offense replacing Howard in the majors, would be a huge mistake. 

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The Ryan Howard injury looked bad from the start. The overall reactions were bad from the start. Heck, even the early prognoses were bad.

Well, unfortunately for Philadelphia Phillies fans, all of those gut reactions have now been confirmed. 

Howard is out until at least May according to Howard Eskin’s Twitter account:

“Word I get from inside Phillies… Ryan Howard had MRI 2day and did reveal a torn Achilles tendon left leg. Likely out till next may or june”

Honestly, this is pretty much what everyone was expecting, but it hurts to actually hear it confirmed. Even though Howard struggled big time in the postseason and had arguably his worst season as a full-time starter, he’s a big part of that team.

The Phillies lineup is starting to look awfully thin, and the loss of Howard’s big bat is a big blow.

No matter how you feel about him.

And as long as we’re being realistic, eight months seems like an awfully kind estimate. The general consensus that I have heard regarding Achilles surgery is 6-to-12 months.

Ryan Howard is what you call a big boy and if he recovers in eight months, I will be very surprised. The Phils should probably prepare for life without Howard’s bat for the majority of the 2012 season.

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