Kuzul

For the last few years, the Philadelphia Phillies have made their name as an offense-heavy team that occasionally pitched well.

That’s not to say they had no good pitching—they just didn’t have very much of it. Cole Hamels carried the team in both 2007 and 2008, and Cliff Lee was lights-out down the stretch in 2009, but beyond that, Philadelphia’s rotation didn’t scare anyone.

Even in 2010, manager Charlie Manuel sent Roy Halladay to the mound every fifth day (not “every fifth game”) because he didn’t trust anyone else to take the ball.

But by the end of last season, something had changed. The Phillies were the near-unanimous favorites to win the National League pennant not for their bats, but for their arms.

While assertions that the Phillies’ tremendous trio would be unbeatable in a playoff series were quickly proven false, this was a clear shift in the composition of their roster.

Philadelphia still had the offensive prowess to win in a slugfest, but opposing teams were more worried about scoring enough runs than allowing too many.

Now with Lee back in the fold, Philadelphia’s 2011 rotation is undoubtedly the best in the game, and may end up among the greatest of all time. In the minds of baseball’s talking heads, the Phillies have already wrapped up the NL pennant.

But it’s too soon to crown them the champions. The Phillies have a problem that could end up costing them a playoff berth: the lineup.

The Phillies managed just 772 runs in 2010, down from 820 in 2009 and 890 in 2007. Part of that can be blamed on the league-wide drop in offense last season, but the team’s 99 wRC+ shows Philadelphia’s bats to have been slightly below average.

Surprised? Check the stat sheets. Jimmy Rollins battled injuries and continued his descent into mediocrity, tying or setting career lows in nearly every offensive category as his OPS dropped to .694.

Thirty-eight-year-old Raul Ibanez slumped through his worst offensive season in a decade, finishing with an OPS below .800 for the first time since 2005 and missing the 20-homer mark he had cleared the previous five years.

Even Shane Victorino’s game took a turn for the worse; he hit just .259 and posted the worst full-season OPS (.756) of his career.

Even the mighty Ryan Howard looks like he may be past his prime. After averaging 50 homers and 143 RBI from 2006-09 (never dropping below 45 and 136, respectively), he managed just 31 homers and plated only 108 runs last season. His .859 OPS was the worst he’s ever posted.

Throw in his abysmal defense and his premium offensive position, and he finished the 2010 campaign with 2.0 WAR. That’s right, folks—Ryan Howard was a league-average player.

The outlook is even worse for 2011. The Phillies already lost their second-best position player, Jayson Werth, to free agency, and his replacement, young right fielder Domonic Brown, is out for at least a month with a broken wrist.

But now, Philadelphia faces an even bigger problem. Face of the franchise Chase Utley’s knee problems are turning out to be worse than we’d thought.

They are understandably hesitant to let Utley undergo surgery for his tendinitis, but with the non-surgical treatments failing this far, things don’t look good for the five-time All-Star.

Utley is almost assuredly going to miss Opening Day, and while the front office doesn’t expect him to miss the whole season, there is no timetable for his return. If he ends up needing surgery, it could take him months to recover fully.

The salient question is: are they still the favorites without their keystone man? Thanks to some sabermetric projection systems, we can get a good idea of the answer.

The easiest system to use for measuring players’ projected impacts on their teams is FanGraphs.com’s FAN Projections.

Here, the Phillies hold a five-game lead in the NL East over the second-place Florida Marlins; a six-win drop would put them in a four-way tie for the Wild Card.

The fans project 7.9 WAR per 162 games for Utley and -0.2 WAR/162 for his chief replacement last year, Wilson Valdez. In other words, for every 20 games Utley misses, the Phillies lose a win.

By that standard, if Utley misses a month or two, the Phillies are still the favorites in the NL East, but it’ll be closer than they’d like.

If he’s back at 100 percent capacity after the All-Star Break, the Phillies will be in the thick of it, but a playoff berth is far from guaranteed.

And if he misses the whole season or comes back before he’s fully recovered and plays poorly, the Phillies will be lucky to win a Wild Card spot.

What of the more advanced projection systems? CAIRO’s latest projections have the Phillies 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Braves, while PECOTA has them ahead by four.

Using a 5-4-3 weighting system for the last three years, we get a projection of 7.9 WAR/162 games for Utley; making the generous assumption that whoever replaces him will be worth 1.0 WAR/162, the Phillies here lose a little more than a win each month Utley is out.

By CAIRO’s standards, the Phillies still win the division as long Utley comes back by September, Meanwhile, PECOTA says the Phillies will fall to second unless he’s back by the trade deadline.

And that’s assuming the rotation stays healthy, Rollins and Howard don’t slip any further, and Utley is feeling comfortable upon his return—far from a given with this kind of problem.

There’s no way to know how Philadelphia will fare in 2011 until we know more about how serious Utley’s injury is, how it can be fixed, and how long he’ll be out.

Barring a complete disaster elsewhere on the roster, the Phillies should be serious contenders, but in spite of their amazing starting pitching, a less threatening offense and the loss of their best player mean they are far from clear favorites for the pennant.

For more of Lewie’s work, visit WahooBlues.com. Follow him on Twitter @LewsOnFirst or @WahooBlues.

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Hot on the heels of the Cliff Lee acquisition, the Philadelphia Phillies entered spring training as favorites to reclaim the National League crown. With Lee joining Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, and Joe Blanton, the Phillies should have the rotation locked down.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, the team isn’t without questions as it prepares for the regular season. Turnover in the bullpen, spring training injuries, and the loss of key players and coaches during the off-season has left the team with several potential headaches to sort out.

The better the Phillies do at sorting out these five key issues now, the easier that long-projected path to the World Series will be.

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So, who would you say is the Philadelphia Phillies team MVP?

By this, I am not asking Who is their best player? Rather, who can they least afford to lose for long stretches, if not the entire season?

Truth be told, I would rather be asking, “Will the Phillies win 100 or 105 games this year?” Or, “When they win their 11 postseason games, will they lose five games or fewer?”

These questions may, hopefully, still be asked down the road, but admittedly all the talk about second baseman Chase Utley’s patellar tendinitis and rookie rightfielder Domonic Brown’s hook of hamate injury has me wondering whose loss would impact the team most negatively.

While we’re on the subject, I liked H20 much better when it did not mean Hook of Hamate, and yes, I’d much rather talk about Hamels’ hook (and how frequently he throws it) than this new hook that I would prefer not to know anything about.

But let’s not get hooked on semantics here.

Which player could the Phils least afford to lose for an extended period of time?

I was going to do this in a slideshow format, but I’ve been fighting carpal tunnel syndrome from all the grueling typing I’ve done on my last few shows, so here is my list in a standard article format.

As one of the five most valuable members of my household, I can’t afford to be disabled.

Before reading my list, please note that I gave some consideration to who each player’s backup is.

So, without any more hemming and hawing, here is how I would rank the 10 Most Valuable Phillies in ascending order (of value) from 10 to one.

10) Roy Oswalt

Oswalt is considered a No. 3 or a No. 4 on this staff, but only on this incredible rotation.

He was absolutely brilliant with the Phils last season (7-1, 1.74 in 12 starts) and figures to have another strong season as a co-ace.

Then again, the squad has three other stud starters and a pretty good No. 5 as well.

9) Cole Hamels

Hamles rebounded in a big way last year, even if his won-loss record (12-11) did not do justice to how well he pitched.

Just like Oswalt, if it weren’t for the other three members of R2C2, his placement would be higher.

8) Shane Victorino

Shane is becoming a veteran, emotional leader for this team who contributes much needed speed and terrific Gold Glove play in center field.

If he thought more like a speed demon than a power hitter at the plate, he would be even more valuable.

7) Brad Lidge

We’ll never see him approach his amazing 2008 campaign, where everything worked out perfectly, but Lidge pitched quite well the last couple months of 2010.

And as well as Ryan Madson (just missed my list) has pitched as a setup man, Lidge is still the man for the ninth.

6) Jimmy Rollins

A few years ago, it would have been silly to have rated J-Roll this far down the list. After all, he won the National league MVP in 2007.

But Rollins, whether due to age, injuries or a combination of both factors, has not been that same compelling offensive player since. Still, his glove and his effervescent leadership are huge for this team, and when he does hit, the team wins a great majority of the time.

5) Cliff Lee

Lee, despite missing some turns with injuries, was second in all of baseball (to new teammate Roy Halladay) in complete games last year.

Given his postseason success, he merits a higher place on this list than either Oswalt or Hamels. Given the presence of the other three aces, it’s hard to rank him any higher.

4) Roy Halladay

If Halladay entered 2010 as the unofficial “best pitcher in baseball,” then last season only cemented this status in most pundits’ eyes.

Perhaps winning the Cy Young unanimously in your first year in a new league and throwing a no-no in your postseason debut will do that.

Funny how that works.

3) Carlos Ruiz

I actually thought of placing “Chooch” at No. 1.

My reasoning? I’m aware that he still has not won a Gold Glove or been voted onto the All-Star team, but the man plays the most important defensive position of the starting eight and does so brilliantly.

He calls a great game, throws runners out when given the opportunity, and he has developed into arguably the best No. 8 hitter in the league.

What other No. 8 hitter batted .302 with an OBP of .400 and a .293 batting average with runners in scoring position?

2) Ryan Howard

Yes, he still has a hole or two in his swing, and he still makes Phils fans nervous whenever he has to throw the ball to second base. I also realize that he had a down year—by his very high standards—in 2010.

But what other Phillie can give you his consistent production and inspire as much fear in opposing managers and pitchers?

That was a rhetorical question.

1) Chase Utley

The Phillies weathered the regular season storm pretty well last year when both Rollins and Utley lost significant amounts of games due to injuries.

Phillies Nation, obviously, hopes that the team—to say nothing of most pleasant surprise Wilson Valdez—is not put to such a test in 2011.

If you’re reading this column, I don’t have to sell you on Utley’s worth. The perennial All-Star is their only logical candidate for the vital No. 3 spot in the lineup, plays terrific (if slightly underrated) defense and spurs his team with his all-out, hardnosed play.

While the Phillies would not relish any of these 10 players (and others, including Ryan Madson, Rual Ibanez and Placido Polanco) missing significant playing time, the thought of losing Utley creates even more apprehension.

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and public appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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We’re well into spring training, and some story lines with the Philadelphia Phillies have emerged. 

Ben Francisco has been stellar and is ready to replace Jayson Werth in right.  We may even see Francisco in Werth’s 5-hole slot by season’s end.

Domonic Brown broke his hand at the wrong time.  He’s been in free fall in camp, and he needed as much spring training as possible.  He needs to regain his confidence.

Chase Utley’s knee has raised some concerns.

Other than that, everything’s just dandy.

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Prior to the start of the 2009 season, the Yankees made a huge splash in free-agency by landing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. They won 103 games and the World Series. Looking back, the Sabathia signing sent shock waves, but nothing like the Cliff Lee spectacle this past offseason.

The Phillies won a MLB high 97 games a year ago, and it was a down year. Players were falling down like flies, and many fans were doubting if the team could even make the postseason. During the summer, the Braves held a large lead in the NL East.

Now with the signing of Lee, the fans are dreaming big and rightfully so. In the end, the Phillies may be the World Series Champions on paper, but now they have to go out and earn it.

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Late February. Optimism fills the air in Major League Baseball.

The reason?

Baseball is back.

Granted, it is only a lowly beginning. Late February is the time for spring training games in Arizona and Florida. The exhibition games, though it is good to see that baseball has returned, are just that: exhibition games.

Spring training is mostly optimistic because of the fact that it is the time of the year when everyone believes they have the chance.

Obviously, there are pretenders. I’m sorry Pittsburgh, but it doesn’t look like the Pirates will be resurrected anytime soon. Likewise for many other teams.

The Phillies, as ESPN would put it, are not pretenders, but contenders.

With arguably one of the strongest pitching rotations of all time, the Phightin’ Phils seem to many people the inevitable 2011 world champions. There is already talk on the Philadelphia FM sports radio station, 97.5 The Fanatic, that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will have a statue of him erected outside of Citizens Bank Park.

That statement is incredibly premature, but it is not far-fetched to say that the Phillies are favorites to win the Fall Classic.

It will not happen.

I’ve been trying to take this thought over the air onto Into The Night, Tony Bruno’s weeknight radio show, but I’ve been repeatedly told that I am too young to get on the air. So I decided to take this matter to the BleacherReport community.

Anyway, the main weakness that the Phillies roster presents to me is the fact that there are many holes in the offense.

I am a Yankee fan, so I have been ragged on this offseason by the “Phillies Phans” because of the fact that the Phils nabbed the jewel of the free agent market, Cliff Lee, away from my Bombers. The argument that I fought back with on that matter is extremely relevant to the reason why the Phillies will not be, as Chase Utley might say, world bleeping champions come November.

That argument is this: while the Phillies may have put up the gaudiest offseason on paper, they had a bad one in the sense that they did not acquire what they needed to avoid repeating the disappointing end that the 2010 season had for them.

Think about it.

The Giants, in the entire NLCS, scored an average of 3.3 runs per game. That is not much compared to the league average, which sits around four. This is an indication that pitching was not the problem.

The Phillies just could not hit with the Giants. That was with a good right-handed bat in the lineup, Jayson Werth, whose signing with the Washington Nationals will prove a decent to severe detriment to Philadelphia’s lineup. They will be exposed by left-handed pitching.

Compared to the rest of the NL East, getting to the playoffs should not present much of a problem for the Phils. The regular season is a test of depth and pitching throughout a 162-game grind. I predict that Philadelphia will take the division easily, posting at least 95 wins.

However, with that being said, the postseason is filled with teams that boast excellent pitching staffs, making the playoffs a battle of the team that can hit. The team that can effectively hit and manufacture runs consistently has the best shot at glory.

The team, as of now, that should win it all is the Boston Red Sox. Getting Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis back from injury-ridden 2010 seasons combined with excellent pickups Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will help the offense emerge as the best in the majors. Combine that a pitching staff lead by John Lester which, although maybe not as prodigious as the Phils’, is excellent and the Red Sox should be the favorites.

Now, of course, nothing is ever for sure in the world of baseball. The injury bug can bite and midseason acquisitions can shake up the balance. For now though, the Phillies must add a consistent right-handed bat to their lineup to get them over the hump.

They’re right there, yet they need one extra push. For now, my prediction is a 101-61 record, an NL East crown, but a loss in five games to the Red Sox in the World Series.

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After averaging 46.7 home runs and 141 runs batted from 2007-2009, not factoring his ridiculous 58 HR, 149 RBI 2006 season, Howard hit just 31 HRs last year with 108 RBI.

While those are still solid numbers, they clearly aren’t the type of numbers that made him a star.

I know he was limited to 143 games and 550 at bats because of a sprained ankle, but his slugging percentage (.505) and OPS (.858) were career lows. He hit a home run every 17.7 at bats, which is a far cry from his career 12.8 mark.

Could this be the beginning of a downward trend?

I say “not so fast.”

He’s only 31 years old. If he were a few years older, I would be very concerned with his power drop, but he’s still plenty young to mash with the best of him. Plus, it’s not like his HR total was in the high thirties and low forties.

He hit between 45 and 58 HRs the four previous seasons. He had between 136 and 149 RBI. Those are ridiculous numbers.

While Jayson Werth is gone, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have a chance to be in the lineup a ton more this year. J-Roll was limited to 88 games and Utley was limited to 115.

Losing two dynamic players like them will have an adverse effect on your RBI total.

If you look at the monthly breakdown of Howard’s numbers, you’ll see he had just one bad month, which came in August. He was limited to just one HR and four RBI. Every other month, Howard had at least 16 RBI, including three with 20+.

If you want Howard, it’s going to cost you. His average draft position, according to Mock Draft Central, is 16. That’s a decent risk, considering how deep the first base position is.

That said, there aren’t many players with legitimate 50 HR, 140 RBI potential.

I don’t think Howard is on the decline yet. I think he rebounds this year and hits 40+ HR with 120+ RBI.

What’s your take?

Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
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• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

So the starting rotation isn’t the worst, but ultimately it won’t matter how dominant the rotation is if the bats stay quiet once again in October.

In last year’s NLCS, the Phils hit an abysmal .216.  The Giants weren’t much better, .244, but they got the timely and clutch hitting from Cody Ross, Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria that Philadelphia was looking for all series.

The big boppers, Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez were just 19-for-82 with 27 strikeouts.

With Werth now in Washington, someone needs to step up and protect Howard in the fifth spot in the lineup.  At times, Werth single-handidly carried the Phightins last postseason.

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Earlier this week it was reported that Cliff Lee, one of four Phillies aces, suffered a mild side strain. Lee stated that he was behind “5-10 pitches.”

In other words, he didn’t miss much time.

Sure, this may sound like news that doesn’t really matter, but this shouldn’t be brushed away. This is a very serious matter that the Phillies need to look into.

Lee should be monitored and checked frequently at practices. It may be a side strain now, but the next thing you know, he pulls his ACL or needs Tommy John Surgery. Lee was shut down for only a week, but this could turn into being shut down for multiple months.

The fact of the matter is that Lee is 32, and will be 33 at the end of the season. By these days’ standards, he might as well be 52.

It’s not just Lee, either.

Now that Shane Victorino is 30, that means the whole starting lineup is in their 30s. The majority of the starting lineup is in their lower 30s. That is a starting lineup that is just too old to be competing.

Last season was an example.

The 2010 campaign for the Phillies was plagued with injuries. Most of the injuries were not age-related, but they are still in trouble.

This injury could be an omen to the 2011 season for the Phillies. The management and coaching need to act soon. There should be a mandatory medical evaluation that will take place after ever practice, warm-ups and games. Lee and the Phillies are in some deep trouble.

It was being mentioned since the end of last season. The Phillies are old. Plain and simple. The average age will be about 32 for the Phillies regulars. Everyone knows that once a baseball player hits around 32-35, he’s done. Players are only good in their twenties these days, and many people have mentioned this lately.

The aged Phillies could possibly even miss the playoffs, since they are just way too old.

I believe many people will agree with me.

The Phillies won the World Series an entire three years ago. Most of the Phils were still in their twenties and youthful.

In 2011, they are aged and depleted, and aren’t in any spot to compete. Lee’s injury may have been small, but it’s a warning. Philadelphia needs to play it safe and smart if it wants to be contenders, and that’s just this year. The Phillies are taking a risk by going into the season at such a high age. This could be the last season that they make the playoffs.

Realistically, the NL East will be overtaken by a youthful, more skilled team, such as the Braves or the Mets. If they don’t get some youth, the Phillies dynasty could end.

So go ahead and take this injury as nothing, but the truth is the Phillies are old, and this is a preview of the season. It’s a small sample of what the lineup of dinosaurs that is the Phillies is in for.

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If you’ve not yet heard the speculation about the Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols trade, then you probably do not follow the Phillies or the Cardinals. 

Whether or not there is any validity to this rumor is anyone’s guess, and most Phillies fans out there love the idea, but should they? 

Yes, Pujols is the premiere hitter in baseball. 

Yes, he is a right-handed bat; the right-handed bat the Phils, and pretty much every other team in baseball, so highly covets. 

Pujols deserves every accolade he receives, but is this trade a good idea for the Phillies?  Let’s look at a few reasons as to why it might not be.

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